Community Playing Time Forecasts 2010 - NEED A'S FANS!
by salb918 on Mar 30, 2010 9:10 AM PDT
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PrintProjecting performance is really, really hard. There a bunch of projections out there, some of them good, some of them not so good. You've got Marcel, CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS, Oliver, and a bunch more. The projections actually do a pretty decent job with the rate stats like OPS and ERA.
But, their biggest limitations is that they do a really crummy job and projecting playing time. Playing time is a function of team construction, platoon issues, bullpen leveraging, injury history, etc. It's almost a certainty that fans who pay attention to their team can beat an algorithm when it comes to projecting playing time.
That's why Tango needs your help:
As I did last year, I am using the Wisdom of Crowds approach to determine how often each player on your team is expected to play. Unlike my past surveys, this one is available in real-time! Select your team, then choose how you think each player will be used.
Your results will be used as an input to the Marcel The Monkey Forecasting System (aka The Marcels), which is going to compete with all the bigshots out there in another project I am conducting. Who knows more about whether a pitcher will be in the starting rotation or the bullpen: an algorithm or a true fan? Who knows more about the number of games an injured Joe Nathan will play in 2010: an algorithm or a Twins fan? There are certain human observation elements that are critical for forecasting. That's where you can come in, and why you are here. Thanks for helping.
It's really easy: just go to the survey and give your opinion on how many innings a pitcher will pitch or how many games a position player will play. It's broken down into categories, too, so you don't have to guess exactly "75 games" -- you can just choose "bench player" which encompasses 30-89 games.
As it turns out, Oakland fans have not turned out in large numbers to fill out this years survey. So it would be great if A's fans could turn up and give their opinion. No knowledge of statistics is required. You just have to be a knowledgeable A's fan, which, if you're reading this, you already are!
Information like this helps us stat-nerds bombard you with new and better information every year. Thanks for your help!
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Ah!
I was going to put a note on the front page post linking to this. I suppose I’ll do it anyway—it’s a great project of Tango’s.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
done
I doubt I am the best source but it’s just my opinion right?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Some of my projections
-Pennington only plays 90-129 games as I believe he’ll slump at some point, giving Rosales a 50 game opportunity at short.
-Anderson pitches 200+, Gio is close to that as I feel he will break out this year, Sheet and Duke put up around 150 IP.
-Only OF I gave more than 130 games was Sweeney. I think due to injury, slumping, etc. Gross, Crisp and Davis will each get around 100 games. I also gave Buck 80ish games, as i think he will get a chance this year as he tears up AAA.
"Did you know you can comment on Athletics Nation from your phone or PDA? SB Nation has launched mobile commenting. Check it out next time you’re at the game or bar and have something to say."
Voted!
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
so do the a's
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
snicker
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 31, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
On the results page for the team...
…there’s also a link to a poll for the non-roster invitees.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Okay, I voted
And I was a little dismayed when I reviewed my answers and realized I didn’t vote anyone to be an “ironman.” Suzuki is an ironman of course, but 150 games is too much for any catcher, even him. And outside of Anderson, I didn’t vote any starting pitcher to even be a regular. To me this reflects not just health concerns, but the uncertainty of player performance for this group. I expect (hope?) next year’s responses will be more encouraging.
It was pretty much the same with me
Didn’t vote for any position player as an Ironman and only Anderson to go over 200 innings. For me my basis was part injury related, part performance related.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think I voted for Kouzmanoff to be an iron man
I can’t imagine Jake Fox or Chavez spending much time at 3rd. Who else would play there? Rosales?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
WE'RE BEATING THE YANKEES!!!!
Well, as of right now, the A’s have 65 responses, the Yankees 60….
A’S WIN! A’S WIN!!
There's no crying in baseball!
Dodgers Divorce War gets ugly
Ex-Wife wants $1 million a month (including $10,000 a month for an assistant)
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Why is this?
I understand she wants a kazillion dollar settlement, that can be structured in anyway they want, but a blanket statement "I need $10,000 a month for an assistant is dumb.
and 10K really?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
and is she hiring? Cause for $10K a month, I'll talk mad smack about her ex.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 31, 2010 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Dude, she doesn't want an assistant.
She wants an “assistant”.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
oh, I don't think I can do that anymore.
Maybe 15 years ago.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 1, 2010 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions
"Dream" Matchups
1975 Reds vs 1998 Yankees, the Yankee bias continues (actually, I know nothing about the 1975 Reds but still)
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
oops
these were supposed to in the WLD. sorry.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
And Greg-Oreo no longer belongs.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
In fact...
…the four teams with the most surveys filled out are all AL West teams.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
One point about the AL West
The Rangers, A’s, and Mariners surveys were done by people who have a clue about baseball and are genuinely helping tangotiger out. The Angels surveys are probably mostly from the Rev, who thinks he’s submitting an All-star ballot.
BEER IS GOOD. BEER IS GOOD. BEER IS GOOD, AND STUFF.
We started out the day at 19 entries.
This is great, great stuff, guys.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
I love this "wisdom of crowds" stuff
because they don’t expect you to have a clue. With so many of these baseball things all the smart guys know better and we’re just stupid fans. But here we’re supposed to be stupid fans. The whole point is that our dumb gut reactions, when averaged out, will be better than expert opinion.
So when I’m clicking boxes thinking, “Shit, I don’t know … uh, how about this one?” I can take joy in the knowledge that that’s how it’s supposed to be. It’s a great feeling. It’s like when you’re being fitted by the tailor and he says, “No, stop trying to pose. I want you to let your gut hang out.”
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
I like it when he measures my inseam
Gropes galore!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just as a curious question
Who voted that Andrew Bailey would pitch 200+ innings?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
He's really good!!!!!
-Cindi
P.S. And cute.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No wait, that's Chris Breslow
-Cindi
P.S. Or is he the smart one?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Never mind
I was thinking of Chris from Chemistry class.
-Cindi
P.S. Or is it Biology class?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Does anyone know what the homework is?
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
that's funny
maybe they think he is going to be put in the starting rotation.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Well God I hope so
It’s that or predict he’ll throw 200 IP out of the pen.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mike Marshall?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
In fairness, they were right about 2007-09
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, as God hates me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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