FanPost

Community Playing Time Forecasts 2010 - NEED A'S FANS!

Projecting performance is really, really hard.  There a bunch of projections out there, some of them good, some of them not so good.  You've got Marcel, CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS, Oliver, and a bunch more.  The projections actually do a pretty decent job with the rate stats like OPS and ERA. 

But, their biggest limitations is that they do a really crummy job and projecting playing time.  Playing time is a function of team construction, platoon issues, bullpen leveraging, injury history, etc. It's almost a certainty that fans who pay attention to their team can beat an algorithm when it comes to projecting playing time.

That's why Tango needs your help:

As I did last year, I am using the Wisdom of Crowds approach to determine how often each player on your team is expected to play. Unlike my past surveys, this one is available in real-time! Select your team, then choose how you think each player will be used.

Your results will be used as an input to the Marcel The Monkey Forecasting System (aka The Marcels), which is going to compete with all the bigshots out there in another project I am conducting. Who knows more about whether a pitcher will be in the starting rotation or the bullpen: an algorithm or a true fan? Who knows more about the number of games an injured Joe Nathan will play in 2010: an algorithm or a Twins fan? There are certain human observation elements that are critical for forecasting. That's where you can come in, and why you are here. Thanks for helping.

It's really easy: just go to the survey and give your opinion on how many innings a pitcher will pitch or how many games a position player will play.  It's broken down into categories, too, so you don't have to guess exactly "75 games" -- you can just choose "bench player" which encompasses 30-89 games.

As it turns out, Oakland fans have not turned out in large numbers to fill out this years survey.  So it would be great if A's fans could turn up and give their opinion.  No knowledge of statistics is required.  You just have to be a knowledgeable A's fan, which, if you're reading this, you already are!

Information like this helps us stat-nerds bombard you with new and better information every year.  Thanks for your help!

 

 



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