Beyond the Box Score Umpire Data and AN's CBSSports.com Draft
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 8:00 AM PDT
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PrintI thought this article from SB Nation's Beyond The Box Score was amazingly different. I can't begin to explain the stats or how this works, or really anything about it at all, but it includes statistics that I haven't seen before and I thought would be fun to share. Basically, we're measuring umpires.
Here's what I can surmise: Pretty much, there are two things calculated when deciding if an umpire is hitter or pitcher friendly; Strikeouts/Walks and Strikezone analysis. Combined, this will let you know if an umpire is friendly to a pitcher or a hitter.
Here's the tease, and the criteria for the umpires included:
First, I wanted to look at how many walks and strikeouts each umpire allowed. So I took the total number of plate appearances, strikeouts and walks over the past 3 seasons and figured out the number of K and BB's for every 27 ABs (this number could be changed, but it won't matter in the analysis). I found a cut offline for umpires that worked regularly and took those that had been behind the plate for 3750 plate appearances over the 3 years. I only used these umpires for the analysis.
Seriously, check it out, especially if you can name more than five umpires in the league. They are all charted. I will tell you that based on the data, there is one umpire that pitchers love, and five umpires that hitters love. I know there are some other sites that also run these stats; I'd be curious if anyone has used/seen these type of stats before. At any rate, this should be fun data to include in game threads.
And now the news you've all been waiting for! AN held its fantasy draft on Tuesday night, and I must brag that we got through 30 rounds of the draft in barely two hours. I am told that is not normal, but what would I know? Drafts are fun! And fast!
In our quest for the mirror ball trophy, we have assembled twelve teams of major league players, and as you probably already suspect, Team BBG (otherwise known as Chicks Dig The Green And Gold) drafted awesomely. I'm sure you want to hear all about it, and if you don't, I can always talk more about the 25-man roster.
My team includes a lot of ex-A's, which makes sense, because aren't they always good when they leave the A's? Miguel Tejada, Carlos Gonzalez, Tim Hudson, and Octavio Dotel will have SUCH fun playing together; they're going to be BFFs on Team BBG this year.
Okay, and I KNOW I said I wouldn't draft any A's this year, but when people leave them in perfectly good spots, you kind of have to, right? I have Panda playing third (to keep an eye on the other Bay Area team) and Adam LaRoche playing first; Chris Davis, Daric Barton and Kevin Kouzmanoff are backing them up.
In case you were worried, I actually have Jimmy Rollins starting over Tejada, Brandon Phillips at second (Mark Ellis backing him up), and Ryan Doumit catching (with Pudge in the wings).
I wish the A's had my outfield; I'm sporting Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, David DeJesus and Nelson Cruz (so I have a legitimate incentive to harass Ron Washington about playing time).
My pitching is also awesome; Sabathia, Buchholz, Kershaw, Hudson, Nolasco, Slowey and relief pitchers Soria, Soriano, and Stasburg. I call them the Killer S's.
We're soooo going to win. How's that for a little trash talk?
Today's games are both at 1:00PM, A's vs. Cubs, A's vs. Rangers. (What is up with me drawing the split-squad games?)
Remember, you can still sign up for CBSSports.com's Fantasy Baseball Commissioner's League for half-off using this link. That takes the price down to $89.99 a league, which is less than $8 a person for a 12-team. If you do start another CBSSports.com league (either with fellow ANers or on your own with friends), email me at baseballgirl1976 at hotmail. Both SB Nation and baseballgirl will make sure you have a fabulous prize to offer the winner.
CBSSports.com is an SB Nation partner and paying sponsor of the SB Nation baseball communities.
This post is one of a series of sponsor endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League.
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or get a free league on ESPN or Yahoo and save 90 bucks
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
It is a bit much, but
it does have more functionality. I am trying to run a keeper auction league on yahoo and its tough. They don’t save salaries or track anything like CBS does. Is that worth $150? Probably not, but its worth something.
Yahoo has auction drafts for the first time this year, ESPN has both keepers and auctions.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
I think any umpiring stats
that differentiate between a Hitter’s Umpire and a Pitcher’s Umpire should have a region defined in the middle of the distribution, and named for Bill King.
''I love Billy Beane. The only mistake he has ever made was writing that braggy book about himself, and how he's so good at computers.'' - Ken Tremendous
BTW, today's game between the A's and Cubs
is going to be on MLB network at 9 pm ET (probably blacked out in the Bay Area). However, it’s on WGN live this afternoon. (For those of you who can watch a spring training ballgame during the day…)
Yay! Thank you!
Watching it now!
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 26, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Is this another thing to factor
in to pitching stats? Umpire independent ERA?
by Chilango on Mar 26, 2010 8:58 AM PDT reply actions
Meh
It’ll even out over time. If a guy gets shelled in his first start and the ump was Tim McClelland, don’t freak out, but I don’t think it’s to the point that it really affects seasonlong numbers.
It’s more of a curiosity than anything else— or maybe a tool for betting the over-under on runs scored in Vegas…
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Will it really completely even out, though?
With ~150 starting pitchers, it doesn’t seem so implausible that one of them gets a bad draw and is stuck with one of the hitter-friendly pitchers often enough for it to be noticeable over a single season. It will even out for most guys, but it seems to me it would be useful to know who those few outliers are who had especially good or bad luck with the umpires.
I’m just guessing intuitively, though. It’d be easy enough to test. Now that we have the umpire ratings, just run them against last year’s data and get an average umpire rating over the season for each pitcher. How much does it even out?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
That seems fair.
But again, it’s easily testable. It’d be an interesting project.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
The reverse could also be true.
Maybe a couple of umpires just draw a bunch of wild pitchers who throw their stats off.
good point
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
You nailed it
All the other sites on this type of data are for betting.
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
What was that, BBG?
I couldn’t hear you over Justin Verlander, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Wandy Rodriguez.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
Hahahahahahahaha
That was awesome
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
whoa! nice
but what does your offense look like? I hope having an AN league promotes more fantasy talk around here, most people just post that stupid lookout landing whenever fantasy comes up.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Offense isn't great. I posted the roster downthread.
It’s passable, especially if some prospects pan out. Ideally, I’d trade some of my SP depth for some offense.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
For what its worth, here is my team:
Team America:
C: Napoli (bleh)
1B: D. Lee
2B: Utley
3B: M. Young
SS: Andrus
MI: Zobrist
CI: Butler
OF: Gutierrez
OF: Lind
OF: Werth
OF: Podsednik
OF: Reimold
U: Konerko
U: Huff
P: Halladay
P: Grienke
P: Lester
P: Baker
P: Danks
P: Liriano
P: Hoffman
P: Wagner
P: C. Perez
Bench (Hiters): Branyan, C. Gomez, S. Sizemore, T. Snider
Bench (Pitchers): Lilly, Hammel, Lyon
The league is surprisingly deep so all the teams have weak points. My pitching seems awesome.
Our humble team
The Prizefighter:
C: A.J. Pierzynski
1B: A. Pujols
2B: A. Hill
3B: G. Beckham
SS: S. Drew
MI: K. Johnson
CI: C. Pena
OF: J. Upton
OF: G. Sizemore
OF: Ichiro
OF: B. Abreu
OF: B. Hawpe
U: C. Coghlan
U: J. Cantu
P: Y. Gollardo
P: C. Lee
P: J. Shields
P: D. Price
P: M. Scherzer
P: M. Latos
P: J. Maine
P: J. Valverde
P: C. Qualls
Bench (Hitters): A. Gordon, R. Sweeney, J. Peralta, K. Shoppach
Bench (Pitchers): J. Garland, M. Guerrier, K. Lohse.
Any thoughts?
Somewhat OT:
Awesome Slusser SFGate article:
The A’s have worked with Ross on lengthening his stride, and he has – a bit. It still appears short in relation to his long legs, but it’s a work in progress. Still, the change seems to be helping.
“I do try to stride farther,” Ross said with a smile. "But with my mechanics, I’m not going to look like Tim Lincecum overnight.
“He throws a great sinker, a power sinker like Roy Halladay,” Patterson said. “Telling Tyson that he’s a power pitcher has helped him. He’s not a finesse guy, so he doesn’t need to have that approach.”
To go along with the sinker and Ross’ slider, Patterson has shown Ross the cutter that he’s incorporated so successfully into other pitchers’ repertoires. Andrew Bailey is a prime example. Ross also has changed the grip on his changeup, using one that Marcus McBeth showed him instead of his traditional circle change; he’s now using the new pitch far more often.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
For now, the team looks like this...
C – J. Posada
1B – P. Fielder (BEAST)
2B – R. Cano
3B – K. Youkilis
SS – A. Ramirez
CI – K. Morales
MI – either I. Desmond (watch out for this kid), or R. Theriot (when I’m low on speed)
OF – M. Holliday, N. Markakis, C. Lee, C. Jackson, J. Borbon
Util – Vlad Guerrero, C. Hart (for now)
SP – J. Lackey, AJ Burnett, B. Anderson, J. Duchscherer, J. Blanton, R. Romero, B. Matusz, M. Rzepczynski, J. Masterson
RP – L. Nunez, J. Rausch, K. Gregg (my RP is painful to look at)
Bench – C. Headley, M. Byrd, The Legendary Jack Cust (for now)
Anyways, for the most part I ignored pitching for the first many rounds, and tried to bulk up the lineup. I’m actually pretty pleased with the results. I nabbed some good pitchers late (especially if the Duke can stay healthy). I punted relief pitching, for the most part. I figure I can always find saves later. Took a few fliers on young kids who could break out (I really like Desmond, and Borbon could give me some needed speed, and Matusz could strike out 175).
We’ll see how it goes. I tend to make a lot of moves, so my team could look much much different even a week from now.
"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott
by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 26, 2010 10:27 AM PDT reply actions
My players are MINE ;-)
I drafted them personally. We’re like family.
(I can see where I wouldn’t be very good at Fantasy Baseball)
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
You see, my players are commodities. Playing for Zero’s team is an honor and a privlege. We expect the best, and offer a realistic shot at playoff glory! You have to perform to stay on my roster…and if you don’t, IT’S THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE FOR YOU, MISTER!
"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott
by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 26, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Hahahahahaha
QOTM, fantasy division
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I tried to stay away from A's
You are always too tempted to pick em too early.
I thought my team came out alright, but we’ll see.
C1 Matt Wieters
1B Todd Helton
2B Dan Uggla
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Troy Tulowitzki
OF JD Drew
OF Matt Kemp
OF Dexter Fowler
OF Adam Jones
OF Maglio Ordonez
MI Richie Weeks
CI Ian Stewart
DH David Ortiz
DH Hideki Matsui
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Andy Pettite
SP Rick Porcello
SP Johan Santana
SP Chris Young
SP Aroldis Chapman
SP Brandom Morrow
SP Joel Piniero
SP Anibel Sanchez
SP Chris Tillman
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Francisco Rodriguez
RP Matt Lindstrom
3B Scott Rolen
OF Milton Bradley
You kept stealing the players I wanted to draft…like RIGHT BEFORE i was about to draft them. Notably Wieters, Zimmerman, and Weeks.
Jerk.
"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott
by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 26, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I cracked up. You were like AWWW CRAP!
Every pick. Hee hee hee
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 26, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
One round, I don’t remember which one, I had two players in my queue who I wanted to draft. And only two teams who were left to pick before me…you, and I think it was Zonis…possibly. So i was feeling pretty good. I was all “nice, I’ll get some good value, fill a roster spot I need, sweet.”
Then, boom, boom…both were gone. After each one, I’m yelling at the screen “CRAP!” “Oh, Son of a…” “You have to be KIDDING ME!”
Anways, I was yelling this and my roomie runs in from the next room all like “whats up dude, what’s going on?” And I was all, yeah, they stole my players!
Haha, yeah, I have issues.
"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott
by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 26, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Alright, everyone is posting their rosters, so I might as well.
C: M. Montero
1B: M. Cabrera
2B: A. Cabrera
SS: J. Bartlett
3B: E. Longoria
MI: J. Hardy
CI: N. Johnson
OF: C. Granderson, A. Dunn, M. Cuddyer, D. Span, D. Young
U: M. Lowell, M. Scutaro
SP: J. Verlander, J. Johnson, U. Jimenez, W. Rodriguez, C. Zambrano, B. Sheets, A. Harang, W. Davis
RP: F. Francisco
Bench: S. Rodriguez (2B), M. Diaz (OF), C. Maybin (OF), B. Wood (3B), C. Lewis (SP), M. Thornton (RP), R. Wells (SP)
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
I'm no expert
but your offense doesn’t look terrible. You have a couple big boppers on the corners and a decent outfield.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
umps
i read that whole thing and still never found out if Umps like being called Blue or not! thanks for nothin
Beane's World!! Excellent!!! Rock On, Beane! Rock On, Geren!
they do NOT
according to the guys on MLB network.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Howdy!
Just tuned in to the Cubs game on mlb.tv….how’d we score vs. Texas?
There is no "i" in Teamocil. At least not where you'd think.
by GreenNGoldSooner on Mar 26, 2010 2:13 PM PDT reply actions
Whoops...I'm in the wrong thread! ;-)
There is no "i" in Teamocil. At least not where you'd think.
by GreenNGoldSooner on Mar 26, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Down the hall to your left
{stupid git}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The heat map analysis is great but...
The metric seems like it has a major flaw. If the width of the distributions of %K and %B are significantly different then the largest one will dominate the analysis. And once again no post-hoc analysis was performed so it’s actually impossible to determine if the results are statistically significant.
Team Dr. Man-O-Lantern
I felt like the guy in the ESPN commercial. Knowing I need one thing and then at the last minute drafting something completely different. It also did not seem to fail that every time I would be 1 or 2 spots away from drafting, I would highlight a player I liked, and then they would get drafted, leaving me feeling empty and confused about life. Youth and Latin America can be the theme of my team this year, hopefully it works out.
C: K. Suzuki
1B: R. Howard
2B: C. Barmes
SS: A. Escobar
3B: C. Figgins
MI: E. Cabrera
CI: M, Prado
OF: A. Ethier, J. Heyward, R. Ibanez, G. Jones, N. McLouth,
U: D. Stubbs, L. Valbuena
SP: D. Haren, King Felix, T. Lincecum, C. Pavano, J. Sanchez, B. Zito
RP: D. Aardsma, C. Marmol, B. Wilson
Bench: C. Getz (2B), J. Fox (3B), M. Bourn (OF), K. Fukudome (OK), T. Cahill (P), R. Madson (RP), R. Rowlan-Smith (P)
Some are real, right? Like Anne Frank's?
by Dr. Man-O-Lantern on Mar 27, 2010 9:00 AM PDT reply actions
Fukudome OK!
You know that’s on a shirt in Japan.
This never happened, but I saw you leave
and crawl into a bed of broken windows.
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