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Who Really Has the Best Rotation in the AL West?

Yesterday, Sports Illustrated writer Jon Heyman published an article about the "best units" in baseball. You know, best lineup, best infield, that sort of thing. The first subject he tackled? Best rotation. His choice? The Angels.

Despite the loss of John Lackey to Boston, the Angels still possess the deepest, most balanced rotation in baseball.

Yes, the Angels. While he does admit that "Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox rotations probably have stronger cases to be cited as the best overall starting staffs based on their top-heavy strengths", he crowns Los Angeles's rotation as the "deepest, most balanced rotation in baseball". He continues:

But it's hard to make a case any team has a rotation as solid as the Angels from top to bottom.

Remember, the Angels rotation is going to look something like this: Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Joel Piñiero. Heyman is right about one thing--it's balanced. But is a balanced rotation really all that useful of an asset? Is a rotation of five mediocre pitchers better than an ace or two, followed by scrubs? Can a rotation led by Jered Weaver really be considered good?

Star-divide

Let's scale this back. It's pretty obvious that the Angels don't have the best rotation in baseball. But do they have the best rotation in the AL West? To find out, I looked up the current starting five for each AL West team (according to their official webpage's depth chart).

Alwestrotations_medium

And here is each rotation member with their CHONE projected park-adjusted FIP. The rotation's average FIP is on the right column.

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It's clear. Seattle has the division's best rotation, and it's not close. They may very well have the best rotation in all of baseball. Addtionally, those averages give all five rotation members equal weight. Seattle's best three pitchers are all projected to have lower FIPs than 14 out of 15 of the non-Seattle starting pitchers in the division. When you account for the fact that front-of-the-rotation pitchers will likely pitch thirty or forty more innings than fourth or fifth starters, Seattle's advantage in the division grows even more.

 

Odds and Ends

  • Yeah, I know. It was my first thought as well: That Colby Lewis? Yes. CHONE absolutely loves him, and it probably has a lot to do with Lewis's 8+ K/BB ratio with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan. And yes, you read that number right. He posted an 8.02 K/BB in two seasons, averaging over a strikeout per inning with a 2.82 ERA. As a starter. That's insane, no matter where you pitch.
  • I didn't want to start projecting injury time, because that's a really complicated topic fraught with far too many error sources. I suppose you can just mentally dock Seattle, Oakland, and Texas a bit for relying on Bedard, Sheets, Duchscherer, and Harden. CHONE projects innings pitched, but I wanted to use the latest available Spring Training depth charts, whereas CHONE had to rely on rotation spot guesses from a month ago. Even if you figure that Bedard's rotation spot will be 50% replaced by a sixth starter (Doug Fister), Seattle's rotation FIP still leads the division by nearly 20 points.
  • You know what's even worse? FIP, by definition, doesn't account for defense. Seattle's defense was historically good last year. I'd bet on a majority of Mariners pitchers having lower ERAs than FIPs.
  • Consider that Seattle's rotation is also "playoff friendly" in that they can drop the fifth starter and rely on their top talent more often, due to the ridiculous amount of off-days. If I were a manager, I really would not want to run into a team that could be pitching Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Erik Bedard three out of four playoff games.
  • Replacing Gio Gonzalez's projected 4.62 FIP with Trevor Cahill's projected 5.08 would put Oakland's average projected FIP in a virtual tie with Los Angeles's. Of course, replacing an injured Sheets or Duchscherer with Trevor Cahill would be worse. I really hope Cahill can breakout with the help of that new curveball he has.
Poll
So who has the best rotation in the division?
Seattle Mariners
576 votes
Oakland Athletics
450 votes
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
196 votes
Texas Rangers
20 votes

1242 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs  |  Comment 76 comments |

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Comments

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Stats question

So, is there a reason why you didn’t use tRA, Dan? Lack of data? Personal Preference? (Would it even make a difference?)

I imagine either way it’s something like: SEA rotation >> other 3 AL West teams.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Everything is better with bacon.

by cuppingmaster on Mar 16, 2010 7:34 AM PDT reply actions  

I would have liked to go one better and use SIERA.

But I needed something easily calculable from the CHONE projections. Fangraphs did most of the FIP calculations for me, but I had to calculate them myself for Sheets, Duchscherer, and Lewis for some reason. I don’t think tRA’s formula is even openly published, and CHONE doesn’t project GB and FB numbers needed for SIERA.

But, yeah, in either case, using tRA or SIERA (or xFIP) would have slightly tweaked the numbers, but I doubt it’d be enough to make much of a difference in the rankings.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

tRA's formula is published

The linear weights used aren’t (because they’re dynamically calculated on StatCorner and frankly I have no idea what they are right now).

Here.

by Graham on Mar 16, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah!

Thanks a ton, Graham. Been looking for something like this.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've tried projecting using SIERA, it's hard.

SIERA uses batters faced instead of innings pitched. None of the projection systems project the number of batters faced.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Batters faced is clearly a better measuring stick than innings pitched.

Which is one of the reasons I like SIERA so much. But yeah, definitely harder to find projection-wise.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah I like it better too.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

You can get pretty close pretty quickly

(3*IP)+BB+H

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Mar 16, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

double plays

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good post Dan

always like to see Heyman knocked down.

With the 1-2 punch of Hernandez and Lee I think you have to give the Mariners the edge especially if Bedard can get close to what he was like in 06-07.

If Sheets and Duke stay healthy I think the A’s rotation will be the second best in the divison.

Like I wrote in the game thread yesterday I see the Angels as having 5 number 3 starters.

I don’t see how the Rangers can win the West with that rotation. I’d be surprised if Feldman won 17 games again and it’s never good if Glass Harden is your number two.

by sirbed on Mar 16, 2010 7:59 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm not sure I believe the Colby Lewis hype, either

With a 1.25 K/BB, 1.54 WHIP, and 4.93 FIP here for his career… I’m not sure Japan suddenly made him an awesome pitcher. Their hitters seem just as good as ours.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Everything is better with bacon.

by cuppingmaster on Mar 16, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't either.

I’m not sure what to think. I had a really hard time finding NPB Japanese stats (I had to snatch that ERA and K/BB number from a Rangers article) but it looks like Colby Lewis was just as good, if not better, than Daisuke Matsuzaka ever was. Matsuzuka apparently led the league in ERA twice: with a 2.83 and a 2.90. Lewis was right in that area of awesome, and I don’t know what Daisuke’s K/BB or anything else was. It’s doubtful that it was as high as 8.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can't remember exactly

I think he’s a cut fastball story, a la Esteban Loaiza. Either that or he changed his arm slot or something. In any event he made some major change to his approach in Japan that seems to have fixed the problems he had reaching his original very high potential in the majors. 3.50 FIP I agree is majorly absurd, but from what I read a couple months ago when they first signed him, he seems like the real deal. I think there was even a minor bidding war for him…

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Mar 16, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

The A's were one of three teams to offer Lewis two years

The other two being the Twins and (of course) Texas. He may not be 3.5 FIP good but Lewis is obviously semi-inspiring to teams.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 16, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

CHONE has problems accurately projecting these types of players.

And by “these players” I mean guys who have limited or distant previous major league performances. This is why CHONE and most projection systems that rely heavily on RTTM are more inaccurate when it comes to projecting minor league prospects than established major leaguers: those minor leaguers have a less sure “mean” to regress to.

So in other words, I would continue to assume Colby Lewis is still Colby Lewis rather than believe in that wildly optimistic projection.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Mar 16, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Apparently the A's didn't assume Colby Lewis is still Colby Lewis

if they offered him two years.

"Cheese is the fruit juice nature intended."- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 16, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

What's your point?

The A’s have given multi-year contracts to bad players before. I wouldn’t assume that Colby Lewis is good just because the A’s offered him a two year contract.

Plus, with the way the A’s have been desperately stockpiling rotation depth this offseason, it would’ve surprised me if they didn’t try to get Colby Lewis.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Mar 16, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe Lewis' agent's sales pitch was,

“He’s Loaiza but he drives the speed limit!”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

NPB stats

This is the best I found, but only raw stats

2009 Yomiuri Giants individual pitching statistics

(And man, for a place that has like 25-30 MBps internet access throughout most of the country, their website sure looks antiquated.)

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Everything is better with bacon.

by cuppingmaster on Mar 16, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

"5 number 3 starters" is a pretty great way to put it.

But I’m not sure I’d even call Joe Saunders a 3rd starter.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

but come-on

Kazmir is at least a Super 2 with potential lockdown ace status. Last year was an outlier…

But his arm could fall off anytime is the flipside.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Mar 16, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Kazmir is not the same pitcher

Jason Grey had a nice blog post for insiders today that goes into detail, but he doesn’t pitch like he used to.

Has a low 90s fastball, a so-so change up and a slider he can’t figure out. He is just as likely to have an ERA around 5.00 as under 4.00.

I also think Piniero won’t transition well to the AL again. And Saunders is a 4th or 5th.

But I think Weaver is a solid 2 or 3 and Santana looks like he might be healthy and could be a 2.

But they have no number 1, thats for sure. I think Anderson is better than their whole rotation.

by DrDoom on Mar 16, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

In following up to that comment

I would not be at all surprised if Brett Anderson has the best season out of any members of LAA’s or Oakland’s rotation in 2010.

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

not to mention which Kazmir shows up

don’t feed the trolls, they’ll multiply like a wet Gizmo.....Mr Tea

by adragon on Mar 16, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Me neither Dan

I ‘d also wager to say that if both Duke and Sheets are healthy and Perform to “Ace” status for the majority of the season, then the A’s have to be considered as the top rotation as well, along with the Angels or Mariners. If Brett Anderson is your #3 then Braden, then Gio…..(projecting here of course!) then I’d say the rest of the division is gonna have o step it up. For sure I’d go with Seattle at the top with Hernandez and Lee as the best 1-2 punch. Nasty, indeed…!

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think Saunders is a little better than AN thinks

I’ll go ahead and piss some folks off and say, “He knows how to pitch.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

The dude has one outlier of a year.

That year happened to have a ridiculous BABIP. He isn’t a great pitcher.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Never said he was

He’s just better than he’s given credit for on AN.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes the Mariners 1 -2 is the best.

   However, they have a serious lack of depth after that. Sure if they make the playoffs they will be in good shape, but without quality 3 4 5 6 7, they will be hard pressed to do so.
   How many starts has Bedard had the last two seasons?
   Ryan Rowland Smith, still unproven.
   Ian Snell?? Please.
   and who do they have to fill in when Bedard gets hurt and the other two either struggle of outright suck?

by Wally's World on Mar 16, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Like I said

If Sheets and Duke stay healthy, A’s have to be top 1-5 in my opinion. Plus, having Cahill, Mazzaro, Meloan, Jennings, and even Tomko as backups ain’t too shabby.

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not "when" with Bedard

He IS out the first half of the season.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

True dat brother!

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Heyman has a big market bias

Even though he didn’t pick Yankees, Red Sox etc, he didn’t even pick the best rotation in the division. That is pure lack of research.

by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Mar 16, 2010 9:19 AM PDT reply actions  

That's exactly what it is.

I could knock off a Heyman-style column in twenty minutes without doing a lick of research, and it would probably be better, too.

"Cheese is the fruit juice nature intended."- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 16, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm inclined to agree with you GS!

Can I have a dollar now?

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

wow, we agree on something?

Sure, you can have a dollar.

"Cheese is the fruit juice nature intended."- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 16, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Personally

I’ve gotten to the point where I actively refuse to click on Heyman articles, if only to deny SI that incremental bit of clickthrough ad revenue for employing him. Take that Time Warner!

by eastbayexpat on Mar 16, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't click Heyman articles,

because those are precious seconds of my life wasted that I’ll never get back.

"Cheese is the fruit juice nature intended."- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 16, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another thing not taken into account

The Angels play almost 40 games vs the A’s and the Mariners (and with the Rangers moving away from the high-offense, no pitching approach, we can begin lumping them in here too). I’ve always thought their rotation has been hugely overrated because of this. The A’s have a way of making John Saunders look like a Cy Young candidate pretty much every time they face him. Neither tRA or FIP take into account strength-of-schedule, and the Angels have the luxury of playing in a division full of pitching-and-defense(with mediocre to bad offense) teams.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Mar 16, 2010 9:39 AM PDT reply actions  

Bedard is injured

I don’t think he should be in Seattle’s calculation. If he is, it should only be given a 50% weight.

Given that, I think the A’s will be very close to Seattle in terms of pitching and defense. If it weren’t for Ichiro, I would say we have a better offense too.

by DrDoom on Mar 16, 2010 9:40 AM PDT reply actions  

But like I calculated earlier, giving Bedard's spot halfway to Doug Fister still gives them an average FIP of 4.08.

Still miles better than anyone else in the division. And Seattle’s defense outclasses everybody, by a ridiculous amount.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 16, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not by projections.

Jeff Zimmerman’s projections have our defense at a 45 UZR, Seattle’s at 40.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

True, I would expect them to still be ahead

But 4.08 isn’t nearly as good as 3.95 so it evens the gap a bit.

My Oakland bias tells me that the back end of our rotation is more likely to outperform the back end of their rotation relative to these numbers (Ian Snell sucks). And I think we have more depth if a starter gets hurt.

All that said, I think I agree that on paper we are a step behind the Mariners overall. But I think we can close that gap with our prospects as the season goes on (coupled with a trade or two). The Mariners don’t have many impact prospects beyond Ackley and he won’t help much this year.

by DrDoom on Mar 16, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd also like to add

For some reason I am more bullish on Scott Kazmir and Gio Gonzalez than CHONE is, and less optimistic on Cliff Lee. I keep waiting for Cliff Lee to either fall off a cliff completely, or at least return to being somewhat good, pretty solid. What he’s done the last 2 years is great, I’m just not totally sold that he’s this top of the rotation guy all of a sudden after being a solid 2-3 guy through most of his early career (with times where he was looking like he might even be done as a major league pitcher). If he strings together another couple of seasons like the last two, more power to him.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Mar 16, 2010 9:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Kazmir always seems like he'

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Everything is better with bacon.

by cuppingmaster on Mar 16, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

s an accident waiting to happen (sorry double post!)

Whether it’s an injury, or IIRC, he just seems to lose his control every so often. Either way, if I’m in the slegnA, I’m keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for some warm pitching bodies.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Everything is better with bacon.

by cuppingmaster on Mar 16, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Last season

When I would follow or read Phillies stuff, they would refer to Lee as being really good or “cover your eyes” bad. I know Milwaukee lit him up one game.

If it comes down to a big game have someone trash talk him and get him to start chucking balls at guys.

by JetSam on Mar 16, 2010 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

My Calculus

Weaver-Their Ace, going to have a solid year
Santana-shades of greatness especially against the A’s, but overall inconsistent.
Saunders-on the downhill of an alright career
Kasmir-disappointment cf what he did in Tampa Bay
Pinero-Mariner reject, sucks

by brewitt on Mar 16, 2010 9:54 AM PDT reply actions  

For the mariners...

The talent falls off pretty quickly after Hernandez and Lee. The mariners rotation looks front end loaded.

I think that if we take our 5 starters as stated above as the actual starters, having Anderson as the 4th starter says a lot. I’m predicting he’ll make the all start team this year (no pressure).

Looking at these rotations the A’s look more balanced than either the Angels or the Mariners.

by brewitt on Mar 16, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think Pineiro sucks

In fact, working with Dave Duncan the last couple of years really seems to have saved his career. Give the guy some credit for making some adjustments and gaining his confidence back. I always thought that he was very talented and wished that the A’s had picked him up as a reclamation project. Curt Young would have been a great pitching coach for him as well.

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Duncan rehab projects

don’t always maintain their performance when they leave.

by JetSam on Mar 16, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure

But, that’s what it’s all about. We’ll see if he can transfer that success back over to the AL. EIther way, we’ll be seeing a lot of JP this season, right? Of course I hope the A’s own him like they did when he was a MAriner the last couple seasons there!

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 16, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

My calculations

Looking at the history of major league baseball, I suspect it’s a lot more important to have a couple of aces at the top, or better yet three aces, than worry about a “balanced” rotation. The Giants last year would’ve won their division with more hitting and a better bullpen, even though the back of the rotation was dicey. The Diamondbacks did pretty well with two aces and sludge. The A’s Big Three went to the postseason and it didn’t matter who was sitting behind them.

I think this is especially true if the team isn’t a great hitting team. Also, since today’s pitchers generally only last through the sixth or seventh inning, the bullpen plays a much bigger role than it did in the old days. The Giants, with Lincecum and Cain at the front, Zito holding up his end, and swamp gas in the rear, would’ve won their division last year with a better bullpen and with another power hitter in the line-up.

The best front two in the West are in Seattle. But assuming health and a return to form by Sheets, once you take into account the ability of the A’s bullpen to hold leads, I think the A’s have the best top three in the division, which ergo would mean the best over all rotation.

by richwol1 on Mar 16, 2010 10:36 AM PDT reply actions  

When the A's went to the playoffs with Big Three...

Their 4th and 5th were also either best in the league at that slot or close to it. Lidle (RIP) was lights out at times…

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Mar 16, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Didn't the Giants' bullpen lead or at least have the 2nd best bullpen in the NL?

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I picked (reluctantly) the Mariners

"Tonto think Billy Beane need to make team full of squirrels and bears."

by OptimistPrime on Mar 16, 2010 11:27 AM PDT reply actions  

A's are the best.... What about the 5 M's

Great Read Dan…

Manpower – I believe your numbers represent the ability of the pitcher as an individual. Also, your mention of the M’s having the best D is a huge advantage if they commit less errors and make more balls hit into outs, which allows less pitches being thrown ( less wear and tear )

Machine – I will consider the machine to be the Ballpark and the A’s have a nice home advantage with all that foul ball territory and park openess.

Management – Scioscia is well known for using his pitching staff to its fullest potential. Rotation set-up, when to pull a starter, which relievere to put in, game call etc….

Material – Bats, Balls Uniforms, gloves… not much advantage to anyone there

Methods – Off season & in season training to keep the staff healthy, Usage during the season, Game call behind the plate, Injury call ups. I do think Suzuki is an advantage to the pitching staff and should be weighted in….

I like the A’s staff, if used to the full potential.

by bashbro89 on Mar 16, 2010 12:10 PM PDT reply actions  

I really like your articles, Dan!

I hope you keep it up.

But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal

by WaddellCanseco on Mar 16, 2010 1:32 PM PDT reply actions  

IMO the Angels could easily finish last

They had a number of players with outlier years and lost Lackey, the only legit-good pitcher they had. Their bullpen is downright miserable and the defense is dead last in the division. Their offense will ensure a .500 season, but that might be good enough for last place in this division.

Also: Bedard isnt pitching with the M’s until June or July, so whoever they get in there in meantime will certainly drop them down a little bit. Theyre still hands down the best rotation in the div though, Felix+Lee add more wins than say, our top 3 pretty easy.

by PL78 on Mar 16, 2010 3:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Brett Anderson's FIP will be better than 3.96

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 4:12 PM PDT reply actions  

The projection doesn't realize that Brett Anderson the first 2 months was an entirely different pitcher from the final 4.

It takes the average for the season and makes a projection on that. I expect Anderson to put at least a 3.5 FIP. That would bring Oakland’s Rotation to a 4.12 FIP average.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

A 3.5 FIP?

Let’s not place too many expectations on Anderson. I do think he’ll eventually be that good, but let’s not put too much pressure on him.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 16, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, if he reads this on AN he may press!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

His FIP was well below that for 2/3 of the season.

And his total FIP for 2009 was 3.69.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 16, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

good job

I am at the doctor’s office and have something to say.

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury

by Future Ed on Mar 16, 2010 4:44 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

to the doctor?

100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.

by fruitattack on Mar 16, 2010 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Does it hurt when I do this?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 16, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Probable pitchers?

Can anyone tell me who’s pitching Thursday against the DBacks or Saturday against the Cubs?

by Trotter on Mar 16, 2010 7:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Not really sure there's any contest

The Mariners one – two combo and the guys they throw behind them right now create the best rotation. I think on paper the A’s have a better rotation, but it requires two high risk guys to stay healthy AND perform to their previous levels. Sounds good, but I don’t give good odds for that to happen. I don’t give horrible odds either, but it’s just too unreliable. After that, they have great promise out of Anderson (who I agree with others could be the best of the A’s/Angels) and the rest of their kids are too unpredictable. The Angels aren’t horrible, but they’re not in anyway scary and are lacking a go-to guy. The Rangers are just the Rangers, need I say more?

Leopold Bloom on why he loves Mr. Peter Gammons, his best buddy:
"Peter Gammons systematically ignored and/or ran down the A’s in the pages of Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News for a good ten year stretch in the late seventies and early to mid-eighties. Trust me, the c**ksucker hates our team."

by DMOAS on Mar 16, 2010 8:14 PM PDT reply actions  

Actually, if Feliz and Holland turn into the studs that their minor league numbers say they will

and the rest of the rotation doesn’t implode, Texas could well have the best rotation in the division.

Is it likely? No, not really— young pitchers don’t usually figure things out instantly, and the A’s guys are as good as the Rangers’ are. But it’s certainly plausible.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Mar 16, 2010 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I was going to mention about Feliz

Will the Rangers actually put him in the rotation, though, and not in the bullpen? Seems to me they’d be insane not to

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.

The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco

by bobnothing on Mar 17, 2010 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think anyone else has mentioned it yet,

so I have to give danmerqury props for those gorgeous tables!

by colin on Mar 17, 2010 7:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Total lack of chairs, though

No rec from me.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Mar 17, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

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