If Eric Chavez stays healthy, would this hurt the A's more than it helps?
by bobnothing on Mar 11, 2010 8:36 AM PST
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First off, and to head off the the inevitable 'He's done so much for us', 'it's a fan's job to support the team', 'you smell and your pants smell and your socks smell too' posts,let me just say that I write this as a protagonista - to say something unpalatable, that I don't entirely believe myself, to try and draw out thoughts on the matter at hand.
To wit - would a healthy Eric Chavez be a threat to the future success of the Oakland Athletics, and possible the world as we know it?
Here are my points:
1. If he's fit, Eric Chavez is going to play, until he cannot.
2. Like the stock I have in several failed startups, Eric Chavez is untradeable; no team is going to want to pick up a large salary and give away any sort of prospect for a player than could hurt himself lifting his carry on luggage out of the x-ray machine (given his familiarity with the x-ray machine over the last few years, there'd be a small element of tragicomedy to this).
3. Eric Chavez is not going to be a full time third base player, short stop, second baseman, or outfielder. He is, for the _most_ part, going to play at first base, or DH. If he's hitting well, he's going to monopolize the playing time there as long has his arms are connected.
4. If he's hale and healthy, Chavez could well have a good season and the A's will probably benefit this year. No-one is questioning his skill at doing things like hitting and / or catching a rapidly moving object.
5. Like a pair of thirteen year olds on a second date, the A's have a number of decisions looming in the first base area: Daric Barton, Sean Doolittle and some guy called Chris Carter could all end up competing for the position in the majors this time next year.
6. It's really, really important that the A's find out what they have in Daric Barton this year. He's 25 this summer (side note - how is someone born in 1985 25? surely that makes him 13, right? When did this happen?), and really has nothing left to prove in Sacramento.
7. If the A's decide that Chris Carter is unable to play OF, he's healthy, and still looks as good as he does now, the A's are going to want to throw him in next year. And they're going to want him to play 1B, and not DH, unless he's a total butcher, as they would, I'm sure, like to get some positional value out of him while he's young. Old Awesome fatties cake botherers, in the Jack Cust mold, or healthcarephilliac ex-3B men who can't take the field are better suited for that role.
Conclusion - Eric Chavez prevents the A's from seeing if Daric Barton is actually as good as they thought he might be a few years back. He either sits around in Oakland avoiding bodies of water waiting for Chavez to get hurt, or he goes again to Sacramento, sharing at bats and defensive reps with the crowd there (so that'd hurt Carter and Doolittle, too). This means they'd not get much in the way of trade (who wants an ex top prospect who has flattered, for whatever reason, to deceive?), they'd not be able to give Chris Carter / Sean Doolittle the go-ahead for DH centered pie eating, gum chewing and tossing-balls-back training.
Anyway, yeah. Well done, Eric, on feeling good again, but did you have to do it this year?
Quick counter arguments - the A's should always play the best team available, as they should always try to win as many games as they can for the sake of ticket sales, if nothing else. Also, Eric Chavez is awesome. Also, you can't have too many good players (though, it'd be nice if you could get value for surplus?). Oh, and his beard is an example to us all, whereas Daric Barton's chin thing is a a sin against God and against all of His creation.
Now, you might well think that I'm just writing this because I'm bored, that it's not actually going to happen, that Chavezy will get hurt sooner rather than later, and that this is wasting time on theory. Well, you're probably right, but hey, I have to fill the hours till I die somehow, and besides, do you *really* see Billy Beane cutting Chavez early enough in the season to have any benefit for those who are to follow?
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I think it helps
might block a little growth, but the young guys could also benefit from having him around. Maybe teach a few pointers on defense. I don’t think it’s a negative.
If he's healthy and hits 25-30 bombs...
with really good D at 1B, then the A’s could be in contention. That’s NEVER bad.
AND if he is healthy and hitting well, the A’s can trade him at the deadline. Teams will take a chance on a guy who will only be paid half his salary (the A’s could pick up even more than that) knowing that he’ll be gone after the season. We know that teams sometimes panic when injuries come about.
Chavez having a healthy and productive season would be a very good thing for the A’s. There’s no doubt about it.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I'm still not convinced he's going to be a factor
once he plays in 30+ games I will probably change my mind.
If he is healthy enough to play every day, I would have to agree with the posts above, however it’s disappointing if you are Daric Barton, since this will take playing time away from him.
I’m still not sold on Barton 100% either, his offense has been inconsistant over the last few years. Whereas Chavez, when healthy, is a known commodity at the plate. Either way, I don’t think either will be playing first in Oakland next year, so play the guy that you are paying millions to.
I think at this point I’d just be happy with decent defense and some offensive production from first base.
I gotta agree with you
I think Chavvy will take Barton’s place in the starting lineup on Opening Day and I think it’s a problem if he starts doing that with regularity. I hope Chavvy really can play SS once a week. If he could, the A’s could then rotate him once a week at 1b, once at 3b, once at SS, and once at DH. Chavvy healthy doing that would be awesome. But, if he’s healthy and only playing 1b/DH, it’s a problem.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Here's my 2 cents
It would suck if Barton was the 2014 AL MVP with CLE because we let him go not knowing what we had. I think of Barton’s upside as Billy Butler’s O with J. T. Snow’s D. Now that is a great ball player and if you asked any MLB team if they wanted such a player none of them would turn him away. In some of the off season posts I said I thought 2010 would be Barton’s break out year. If he is the everyday 1B I see him in the .290/.420/.480 range. Am I over valuing Barton? Probably as he has about a 20% chance to be that player, (J. T. Butler?).
On the flip side if Chavy is healthy and performing as he has in the past it is nothing but a good thing for the A’s. Say at the all-star break he has 20-25 bombs and has, (miracle of miracles) stayed healthy I could see Billy trade him, (while paying 40-50% of his remaining salary) to a contender for a couple of good prospects, (B- to C+ range). Then Barton/Chris Carter could take over for the remainder of the season.
Either way I think the A’s are going to be far better then they were last year. I can’t wait for opening day to get here!
don’t feed the trolls, they’ll multiply like a wet Gizmo.....Mr Tea
20-25 bombs at the break? Holy smokes...
That’s an MVP candidate.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
well he already has 2 in 8 ABs
;-)
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
A .420 OBP?
Seriously? That’s Frank Thomas / Nick Johnson good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also, wow, a .130 difference in AVG and OBP?
Wouldn’t that work out to almost as many walks as hits?
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
Hmm Youkilis had a .108 difference in OBP and BA.
150 hits and 77 BBs and 16 HBP, so yeah it’ll probably be getting pretty close
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I'm embarass myself sometimes.
Just did the math. That’s 142 hits and 110 walks, assuming no HBPs and 600 PAs.
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
Your English embarass yourself too sometime
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Heh.
I really should reread my posts before clicking.
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
It would, if your name is Mendoza
.130 difference between AVG and OBP will mean exactly the same number of hits as walks if your average is something very vaguely estimated as being in the vicinity of .19163813 (assuming no HBP). Something very close to that would be going 115 for 600 over a season, for .192 average. The OBP would then be 230/715, or .322
[/totalnerd]
sorry don't know what I was thinking
Here is a more realistic line IMO .308/.412/.484
I will say I am not a numbers/formulas guy, (I know just enough to get me in trouble).
don’t feed the trolls, they’ll multiply like a wet Gizmo.....Mr Tea
Not sure why you'd think Barton would
manage an “MVP level” .412 OBP or slug way, way, way higher than he’s ever seemed capable of slugging, but ya know what — I hope you’re right!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, the OBP and slugging aren't that unrealistic
The real stretch is making the leap of faith that Barton could hit above .300 for a season. He had a reputation of being a pretty good hitter in the minors and if he could make the break through and hit around .300 then his overall line would probably be pretty close to what adragon was hoping for. Barton does have a .145 ISO in his short big league career, so while the .176 posted above is a bit optimistic I don’t think it’s all that unrealistic for a 24 y/o to show that kind of improvement.
So what it really comes down to is what kind of average is Barton capable of? He’s always seemed to get good scouting reports on his swing but he hasn’t really put up good BA’s in his history. The good news is that his K-rate dropped significantly last season down to about the same levels he showed in the minors which should help his average. I just doubt that he has the ability to maintain a high enough BABIP to be a .300 hitter.
I would brown post this if I could
Really dude? A player playing well is going to hurt us? Its only Daric Barton, if Chavez OPS’s 850+ at 1B and miraculously stays healthy and has a comeback year then who the hell cares about Barton? Also, its CHAVEZ, he aint playing more than a month anyway, his back cannot withstand a half a season let alone a full one.
Uh, so, the bit at the top where I say that I'm bringing this up as a discussion point?
That’s my answer
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
A healthy Chavex could also possibly mean more Jack Cust in LF
which would hurt the team on defense (how do you spell defense with a -ivly {or is it -ivley}) I suck at spelling.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Chavex? Chavez and Fox with Eric gettin the most ABs?
Swisher on Ellis - "every day he does something that makes me say, 'Well, I'll be damned, look at that!'"
by Mantecan As Fan on Mar 12, 2010 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
Completely understand the sentiment but...
I don’t agree that Chavez is untradeable if he plays well, although the A’s would no doubt have to eat almost the whole contract for a B level prospect, even if he’s killing the ball. Also, having seen Carter play some 1B, I don’t think his future is even there. He’s a DH. If Cust plays well, he’s another big time trade candidate btw. Barton will get another looksie before his fate is decided.
by AgitationStation on Mar 11, 2010 11:05 AM PST reply actions
I do agree with bn
I can’t see how any team would trade for Chavez. Makes no sense whatsoever. His back is a ticking time bomb.
"Tonto think Billy Beane need to make team full of squirrels and bears."
by OptimistPrime on Mar 11, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
OT
Slusser will be on the Buancast today
susanslusser – I’ll be on the Buancast of today’s A’s game vs the Brewers, probably the fourth or fifth inning. #athletics #mlb
10 minutes ago via Twittelator
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Chavez article from sfgate.com
Eric Chavez said he’s just trying to enjoy what remains of his career as much as possible, and if that includes home runs like the two he hit Wednesday, all the better.
“I already know the window for my career is very short,” said Chavez, who has had two back surgeries and three shoulder surgeries. “I don’t know how short.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/03/10/SPIT1CDV24.DTL#ixzz0htgAzwEY
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Interestingly,
if you google “Eric + Chavez + remains” you get quite a lot of leads to mortuaries.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good Gawd.
When you put his surgeries in counting format—good gawd.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.
RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."
(MT)
Thanks RobertNada
Well written and great points. But I fear it will all be moot when he gets about two weeks into the season and can’t go anymore. It will be a shame if he goes out like that, as I would love if he is healthy all season and hits like Eric Chavez of yore, as I would gladly sit Staplehead for 28-30 bombs.
"Tonto think Billy Beane need to make team full of squirrels and bears."
I think there's a middle argument
Which I will label “The Realist’s View” because I’m one of those smug pessimists who thinks he’s a realist. Anyway, this view entails 4 thoughts:
1) Due to the size of Chavez 2.0’s contract, Billy Beane has almost no choice but to see what value he can recover from it.
2) A spring training injury to some position player other than Chavez 2.0 may well open the door for him to stay with the team and ride the bench, at least for the beginning of the season.
3) Whatever happens during spring training, Eric Chavez 2.0 is not going to last the whole season.
4) This team is almost certainly better off without this new Chavy model holding a roster spot hostage.
At it’s core, the thesis is that this problem will most likely take care of itself. It kills me to talk about Chavez like this (even in snark) because I loved watching him play so much. I hope like hell he proves me 31 flavors of wrong.
"Smokey, this be not the foul jungles of the darkest East Orient. This be ninepins. We are bound by laws."
aren't we already to Eric Chavez 3.0?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
The last 3-4 years have been Chavez Vista 1.0
Joey C. I like the realism. Have to agree with all of your points especially that this problem will take care of itself. Best of luck (he’s gonna need it) Chavy. More power to the upgrade! Maybe there some proprietary new features that will add some value to this team.
Interesting post Bob
I get what you’re saying although I guess I think having too many players for a certain spot is not a problem as long as you have a good manager to work it out……crap we’re screwed.
by sirbed on Mar 11, 2010 1:40 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I think a healthy Barton is better than a healthy Chavez
And it seems like a healthy Chavez means Barton is in AAA, so yes, Chavez on the team would hurt the A’s more than it helps.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 11, 2010 1:49 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
We often disagree on player evaluation
but not here. This is basically my opinion on the issue. Unlike Barton, I cannot see how Chavez can possibly be a positive factor for this team unless he is able to play third base, and the acquisition of Kouzmanoff foreclosed any chance of him playing third base.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
or SS!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I don't think we disagree THAT often!
I think we mostly agree, but when we disagree on a guy, one of us thinks he’s kind of awesome and the other thinks he should be playing beer league softball.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
So you guys can't even agree on how often you disagree?
LOL.
Oh, and you’re both wrong. Paul’s already on record as saying Chavez has no value even if healthy, which is laughable on its face. Honestly, the Barton-love is somewhat hard to fathom given how mediocre he’s been (see Buck, Travis for another example). I like the guy, and hope for the best, but the “he’s young, give him time” argument only goes so far. Also, stashing Barton in AAA might mean we’d be able to make use of him for an extra year (when the A’s are more likely to benefit from him, assuming that he can become as good as you guys think).
by andyinfremont on Mar 12, 2010 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
Highly unlikely-- see below
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Chavez needs to be able to throw...
If he can play once or twice a week at SS, I think this could all work out.
If he needs to get significant ABs at 1B and DH, its going to be a mess. If he plays instead of Cust I think thats a wash or even a slight loss in productivity. If he plays for Barton, we have the problem you mentioned. There would also be very little room for Carter all season barring a trade.
I happen to have a lot of faith in Barton and its not like there is any more room for him in AAA than there is in Oakland. He needs to play every day. Even with his lack of power, I think he will be as productive as Chavez.
Not to mention what Chavez means for Fox and Rosales. If Chavez can play SS, Rosales likely doesn’t make the team. Luckily Rosales has an option left. If Chavez can’t play SS, but can still play, it makes it very hard to keep Fox and find time for him to play. It would be quite a waste to lose out on Fox or to just leave him on the bench.
Patterson is almost assuredly gone… I just hope we can trade him for something.
So my answer is yes… Chavez is screwing everything up. If he can’t play on the left side of the infield, I would just eat the salary and cut him loose. Personally I’d like to see him get 4 starts a week at 3B and SS against righties. I don’t want to see him at 1B or DH more than once or twice a week.
I still don't get the Chavez at short thing
Maybe, years ago, in an emergency he could’ve done it. But how on earth is he supposed to be expected to play there with any regularity now?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 11, 2010 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly
I cannot for the life of me imagine a even somewhat healthy Chavez taking a turn at 2nd on a double play ball. I have an even lesser image of Chavez running deep into left to field a grounder in the hole and making a 125 ft throw to first while running into the A’s bullpen…I am just not seeing that.
I'll have a sandwich and a draft(sic). - Bill King (RIP)
That's kinda my point.
At least now that’s how it is. In 3 weeks, Cust or Barton or Kouzmanoff or Fox or who knows could be hurt and maybe then Chavez will be good to have around.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
bingo!
"The rich people want what the poor peoples got, and the poor people want what the rich peoples got. You can never please anybody in this world"- The Shaggs, "Philosophy Of The World," 1968
by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 12, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
I'm hearing you Bobnothing
Of course in a vacuum health is always good, and Chavy doing well is a positive.
But after being hurt when we really needed him (not blaming him, understand) all those years, it would be classic Chavez luck (our only big buck signing only to get injury issues) if he now, simply due to his health, makes it tough to gauge the Barton/Carter situation.
This is a very valid point and I don’t see why so many poo poo it.
If ever there was a year for Chavez to remain hurt this is it. It would allow the perfect window for Barton to once and for all prove himself while giving Carter that time in AAA he could use and the A’s WANT to give him to push his clock back.
This would fit perfectly, giving the A’s a good trading chip while then bringing up Carter.
Chavez healthy = Barton no regular playing time = Barton never gets comfortable at plate = Carter eventually gets 1b job = A’s try to trade Barton while he still has value, but get less than thrilling return, only to perhaps “find it” somewhere else.
Very very possible outcome.
Ah Chavez, the gift that keeps on giving. (and really, i like Chavez and do not blame him, like so many knee jerk fans, most of whom are somehow under the impression players and medical staffs can more than minimally control their own injuries. That is a pet peeve of mine, that soooo many get mad at the victim regarding injuries. Yes, their frustrating, but wow, think first.)
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 11, 2010 3:21 PM PST reply actions
Yes - I should have made that clearer - This isn't an attack on Chavez himself, by any means
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Not you Bob
I wasn’t aiming that at anyone in particular here (most if not all ANers are above that,) only some fans who do the blame the victim re: injuries.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 12, 2010 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
No, I realise that
But it’s still something I should have spelled out, I reckon
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Honestly
I think I would take one more year of healthy productive Chavez even if it hurts the team in the long term. He is a link to the past that was actually fun to watch A’s baseball (although last year was better than 07 and 08). Plus my wife would actually enjoy watching A’s baseball if he was playing which would mean more of me watching A’s baseball.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
But it's this same sentimentality re: Chavez
That kept Beane from viewing Chavez realistically the last few years. Beane has even admitted this much.
Bobnothings point still stands as very valid. Any warm fuzzy’s we get from seeing Chavez perform in this his A’s swansong, would be quickly forgotten for years to come watching Barton succeed elsewhere while the A’s have little or nothing to show for it, all because we couldn’t get a look at Barton RIGHT WHEN he was ready to make that step.
Of course Barton could just not be that good afterall. And of course Carter too (let’s not even think about that for now though.)
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 11, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions
I see Barton going the way of Dan Johnson
but I could be wrong. And holding out on Carter would save a ton of money in the future.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Don't worry, if Barton sucks this whole discussion is invalid. hahaha
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.
RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."
(MT)
Is Chavez's...
…range of motion so bad that he couldn’t do a couple days at 3B, 1B, & DH?
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
I agree on not being too high on Barton
All I’m saying is if ever there was a year for Chavy to be hurt, this is it……and of course he may be healthy for the first time in 4.
I still do think though, that Barton could hit like say Mark Grace. With his fielding that’s a great player. Only 15-20% of me thinks he could achieve that though, so mainly i’m not too worried. But i have thought about this, which is why Bobnothings post resonated with me. Mainly I just want good value for when Barton is traded.
I suppose the positive side of all this is giving Barton the chance this year and he continues to not really hit, lowering his trade value even more. Perhaps him never really getting consistent ABs this year will help his trade value as other teams see that as he’s still got that potential, “never got the full chance” in Oak kind of thing.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 11, 2010 3:44 PM PST reply actions
he's still young
and a lot of people on AN think he was one one the best hitters on the A’s last year. which is sad considering the context.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
It's not a matter of "thinking" he was one of the best hitters on the A's
It’s looking at the production he provided. His performance, a sign of things to come or not, factually made him one of the best hitters on the A’s. That’s not really a matter of opinion.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 11, 2010 5:19 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not very good at evaluating advanced hitting stats but
I see his OPS was .784, which was the same as Rajai’s and only Matt Holliday’s was better, but it was in limited action (160 AB, SSS right?). The sad thing was Rajai had a better slugging percentage than Barton (.423 to .413, again SSS). In AAA Barton’s OPS was .844, so that’s good. The also noticed his line drive % was about 20%, which was better than Holliday.
Who knows what would have happened if he played more the 54 games, but sounds funny to call a guy who didn’t even play half the games “one of the best hitters” even if the stats say he is.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Thing is, OPS undervalues OBP, compared to SLG.
A .300 OBP + .600 SLG is far inferior to a .400 OBP and .500 SLG, even though they’re both .900 OPS. Barton’s OPS is OBP-heavy.
But you’re right, there’s definitely some SSS going on in last year’s numbers.
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
that's interesting...
i always thought slg % was more valuable than obp? am i wrong? wouldn’t that imply that 300/600 is more valuable than 400/500?
personally, i’d take anyone that could do either on our team.
400 OBP 500 SLG is more valuable than 300 OBP 600 SLG
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
Yep, OBP is more valuable.
Not only does OPS count both OBP and SLG equally, but SLG in itself is flawed. A home run isn’t worth four times as much as a single. That’s why people created stuff like wOBA.
But in either case, I’ll gladly take a .900 OPS guy, no matter how he does it.
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
The maximum possible PA would be 595 to have a .900+ OPS
The line would then be .202/.202/.699/.900. That’s approximately a .361 wOBA or 15 wRAA. That would be more than any 2009 A. Holliday was the closest at around14. This all ignores HBP and SF of course.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Oh, a SSS argument is a valid one
I didn’t really explain fully in my previous post.
What is not arguable is that Barton’s 2009 was one of the best offensive performances of 2009 A’s players, even in a small sample.
What IS arguable is how good Barton is going forward. There are legitimate reasons to believe his true talent is closer to 2008 than 2007/2009.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
The consensus or at least maybe a quorum of people on this blog
(and maybe I’m exaggerating) think that Barton is “DA MAN.” Personally, I’m not that high on Barton and agree with you about his trade value. Like I hope Chavez will do well I hope that Barton has a break out year. What’s frustruating about Barton is that I think we all know that the guy has some decent power and we know that he has good potential.
But would you agree that Barton is better than Che Guevara?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 11, 2010 5:20 PM PST up reply actions
I'll wear a T-shirt with Barton's face on the front
wearing an A’s beret. Hell yea! Che is Cuban though and you know Cubans can play ball.
Choosing Chavez over Barton will just be another dumb decision by the A's.
And the A’s have made a lot of dumb decisions the past couple of years.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I don't think the A's are going to choose Chavez over Barton per se
On the other hand I don’t think the A’s are going to choose Barton over Chavez. It will be Barton over Chavez by default. At best you’ll see Barton out there 3 days a week and Chavy out there the rest of the time (the other 3 days). I like Chavez and hope he does well but it’s a long season and it’s not even April yet. Unless, Chavez has done something different this year in his conditioning or routines he’s most likely going to get hurt again. Most likely it will be a minor injury. The result will be that we will get a long look at Barton at the first half of the season.
Yes, but
Part of the situation here is that the window may not be the whole season (which would give Eric plenty of time to get hurt again sadly,) instead May when Carter could conceivably be brought up postponing his arbi clock.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 11, 2010 4:02 PM PST reply actions
good point.
"The rich people want what the poor peoples got, and the poor people want what the rich peoples got. You can never please anybody in this world"- The Shaggs, "Philosophy Of The World," 1968
by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 12, 2010 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
No way in hell Chavez can play shortstop ....
……………………….can he?
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
Even if he could...
…why? If his back is so bad that he can’t take full reps at 3B, why move him to a position that requires even more lateral movement?
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
I'm kinda being half serious about this...
You know those back braces that workers use in warehouses. I think weightlifter use them as well. Can Chavez wear one of these? I used to work at IKEA and these come in handy and definitely saved my back. You wonder why they don’t implement something like that?
Can Chavy wear one of these?
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Mar 11, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And keep Michael Biehn on call.
Just in case we get any aliens, terminators, sock puppets, or angels in the outfield.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Or the NTI's from The Abyss
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Here's why I don't see a problem
If Chavez plays April-May instead of Barton, because he’s healthy and productive, platooning with Fox who’s out of options, the combo providing much needed power to complement Cust and Kouzmanoff, and then Barton comes up and we see what he can do for four months, and he’s under contract control another year — not seeing the disaster here.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So you send Barton to AAA?
Where does Carter play? Where does the person who Carter is replacing play? etc etc.
What do we do with Fox and Chavez after 2 months? I don’t think there would be much trade value, especially that early in the season.
In that scenario, I'd say
Carter plays DH.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I have a feeling that they'd want to give Carter as much of a chance as is possible to demonstrate
a passable first base glove, no?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Well, yes. That too
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Surely Sacto could manage to juggle playing time...
…between Barton (1B), Buck (OF), Doolittle (OF/1B), Carter (OF/1B) and Taylor (OF)? That’s five players for five positions (including DH). I assume Matt Carson and another OF (Brown?) will be reserves. Factor in injuries and normal rest, and it doesn’t seem that crowded.
by andyinfremont on Mar 12, 2010 4:13 PM PST up reply actions
Brown should definitely be starting
He’s a better prospect than Buck and Doolittle at this point.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Brown could use some more time at Midland
As great as he was the first two months, he was atrocious after he came back from his injury last year, and he didn’t get that many ABs overall. He could use another half season.
by AgitationStation on Mar 13, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
He's also 24
At some point the A’s just have to push him and hope he succeeds. And if it wasn’t for a terrible BABIP in August we would be talking about two sets of 20ish ABs.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
he also struck out 30% of PAs in Aug.
Wasn’t just a babip fluke, he sucked once he came back. Doesn’t turn 25 until late Nov. He was always going to take time. The A’s don’t have to rush him now anymore than they have in the past.
by AgitationStation on Mar 13, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
If a player is a legitimate prospect...
…you want them playing at AAA so they can continue to develop. You don’t want them sitting on the bench. Sure, having too many legitimate prospects is a “good problem to have”, but you don’t want to overdo it, either.
Pitching and defense wins pennants, but offense sells tickets.
It would require Barton to be in the minors for most of 2009 (~4.5 months) for the A's to get another year of contract control over him
and virtually the entire season for him not to be a Super Two after 2011 (like, not even a cup of coffee in the majors).
He got a full year of time in 2008 and 119 days between 2007 and 2009.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
I don't think we need to worry about Barton breaking the bank
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Agreed. Barton's 7th year isn't likely to be at all important to anyone.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 12, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
maybe not the A's as a player
but that extra year does raise his value if he were to be dealt in favor of carter or dolittle
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
Yes, but very little and not enough to care about.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 13, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
His 7th year only isn't valuable if the entire rest of his career also isn't valuable
In that situation, he has no value and what you do with him is irrelevant.
You might as well assume that he IS a valuable player, and act accordingly. In Barton’s case, it doesn’t seem to matter much one way or the other, but it certainly does matter with certain other (coughCahillsnort) players the A’s have recently done dumb things with.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Well there goes that theory!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good info Paul
Thanks. That reduces Barton’s flexibility, but probably doesn’t change the overall equation. If Chavez/Fox are healthy send Barton down, if they’re not, bring Barton up.
by andyinfremont on Mar 12, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions
Barton will not lose his job to Fox
And Chavez will not be a starter. They have already said he can’t play every day.
I could see a Chavez/Fox platoon at 1B
But if Barton keeps hitting the way he has this spring, they may find a way to keep all three. Which might mean starting with 11 pitchers, or sending down Powell to start the season and making Fox the backup catcher, until someone gets hurt/traded/etc…
by andyinfremont on Mar 14, 2010 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking something similar this morning.
Not so much how it would affect Barton’s status specifically, but… on the off chance Chavez did stay healthy and do well… would there then be sentiment to sign him to another contract after the season? I really don’t want that as a possibility or even a temptation.
I still believe he will physically crash and burn before too long, but ya never know for sure until after all is said and done.
Pitching and defense wins pennants, but offense sells tickets.
Before we all get crazy here about Chavez....
If I rememeber correctly he had a decent spring last year as well. I remember quite well sitting out at AT&T Park on a freezing night for the spring training bay bridge series last year and Chavez hit a monster homerun to center field, and we all know how last year played out. I will not be convinced until we are into May and he is still playing and producing. I do not wish any ill will on him and I want the A’s to suceed, but I’m just saying……
There is no A in OFFENSE!!
The homer was off Lincecum, IIRC.
Chavez’s own comments about how he’s almost constantly in pain and how he needs to avoid throwing to keep his shoulder healthy suggest we won’t have to ponder this question for long.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
Assuming Chavy is healthy he plays
maybe 3 days a week at first, one at DH, one at 3rd. That gives Daric plenty of reps at first. What to do with Foxy, no idea. It will all work out, this whole team is injury prone, not just Eric, for example, Coco and Duke as we speak.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Crisp starting the season on the DL could "help"
Stall the next decision…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Y'know... I know some guys who know some guys
who know some guys who could get that job done for you cheap…
"The rich people want what the poor peoples got, and the poor people want what the rich peoples got. You can never please anybody in this world"- The Shaggs, "Philosophy Of The World," 1968
by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 12, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
the full Tonya?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
I would think Crisp on the DL would be better for Patterson or Buck than it would Chavez/Barton/Fox
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
That's what I was thinking too
You could go with Davis, Gross and Sweeney in the OF (with Cust and Fox as the reserves, and Crisp on the DL) to start the year in order to keep Chavez/Fox/Barton, but that’s a short term solution for sure.
by andyinfremont on Mar 12, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
Plenty of reps?
Almost all players will tell you they need pretty much everyday starter ABs to really feel continuity.
My point is without Eric in the picture (again, i like Eric and only say this because we know he won’t be around after this year) Barton would have FULL ABs for the first two months right when Carter was waiting out his time in Sac to come up once the A’s get the extra year with him.
If Barton hit well in this full time showcasing, then the A’s could this year trade him for something good, bring Carter up and voila, there we have it.
All of that doesn’t happen with Eric healthy. He is so far. So Barton will have sporadic ABs, likely not hit as well as he could, Carter comes up and keeps the job longterm, leaving the A’s in limbo land with Barton having lower trade value, possibly by far, than if he got these full time ABs.
To me this is Bobnothings point.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 12, 2010 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
But what if Barton regresses to his 2008 numbers?
Then Barton not only doesn’t produce, but he’s worth very little in trade. If Chavez is healthy and producing, we seem better off. And if Barton goes to AAA and has a monster month or two, that’s a good problem to have.
by andyinfremont on Mar 12, 2010 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
Powell to minors, Fox as backup catcher
Team is expecting Suzuki to catch 140-145 times again this year anyway, so I guess we can survive Fox’s lackluster catching skills on every other getaway day. That way both Barton and Chavez can stay on the 25-man roster, hopefully with Barton playing first and Chavez offering moral support.
I'd rather have Powell available at catcher in case something happens to Suzuki.
Fox isn’t so great that they need to put up with him at catcher.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 12, 2010 8:55 AM PST up reply actions
I don't like that because Suzuki needs more time off than he got last year.
I like Powell as regular backup, Fox as emergency if Powell’s health is poor.
I love Suzuki, but...
…I agree he needs more rest than he usually gets.
Pitching and defense wins pennants, but offense sells tickets.
+3 on...
…resting Suzuki more often. We’d like to keep his knees together as long as possible.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Chavez pushing Barton to the minors and hitting for a 140 OPS+ in 600 PA is a good thing.
A’s don’t really need Barton at all if they can transition from Chavez to Carter. Of course this isn’t very likely, and if Chavez actually starts the season at 1B, Barton will probably be back within a couple of weeks and Chavez will be done for good by May.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
You know what was the last time Chavez had a 140 OPS+?
Never.
For his OPS+ last five years has been 108, 105, 101, 85 and -30 (of course, had only 30 ABs last year). He had five surgeries. He’s 32. He hasn’t been an elite hitter since 2004. I just think there’s no way Chavez is a better player in 2010 than Barton. I understand people are far more emotionally attached to Chavez, but there’s no rational argument working in his favor. Just fantasies.
by Manstein on Mar 12, 2010 9:42 AM PST up reply actions 6 recs
Rec'd
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
You mean "wrecked"
{As in, Chavy’s body}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is true
If Chavez plays !B or DH he will be replacing a better player. Platoon at 3B is the best option but requires him having a working arm, which he seems to lack.
If he is performing well to start the season, I’d rather we trade him, even if we pick up his entire salary, which we would need to do.
!B
how does one say that?
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Bass! (bring it back)
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
No but it does make me B!ke-curious
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I don't believe it's beyond the realm of possibilty that Chavez sees plenty of time...
at 3rd in the regular season (if healthy). It seems like he is mostly playing 1st base right now to get comfortable over there and, more importantly, to spare him any unnecessary throwing to protect his shoulder for the regular season.
This is pure speculation, but maybe Eric and the team are just like, “sure, work me out at 1st and short during the Spring to get reps, but then during the regular season I’ll let her rip (literally and figuratively) at 3rd as often as I can because I’ll be pretty much be useless at 1st anyways without a shoulder.”
Since this is very likely Eric’s last year in baseball – unless he just totally reverts back to his 2004-level of offensive production and can gain notice as a DH-only – maybe he’ll just throw caution to the wind and resume playing 3rd on a semi-regular basis. In that case, maybe a best-case scenario for Eric and the team would be to have him go like this:
Monday – 3rd base
Tuesday – off-day
Wednesday – DH
Thursday – off-day
Friday- 3rd base
Saturday – off-day
Sunday – off-day
The natural lefty-right platoon of Kouz and Chavez could even be used to further dictate the days Chavez plays 3rd…point being, Chavez would have at least 2-3 days in-between starts in the field to preserve his shoulder, while DH-ing occasionally to keep his timing at the plate, but still giving the majority of those at-bats to Cust and Barton, who deserve those at-bats.
This is not a likely scenario by any means, but just thought I’d devise a plan that could theoretically work for everyone.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
That still will likely leave the team without a real backup shortstop
Unless they only carry six relievers.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
If Chavy hits...
They’ll find him a spot. I think they want to win more than they want to “develop” Barton. I say play the guys who perform the best on the field. And let the best man win.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
I think the answer is yes.
I concur with the opinion that healthy Chavez is bad news for the A’s … blocking Barton and/or Carter, subbing for less sexy players with better WARs, etc.
But only insofar as “good for the A’s” means helping the team win more games in the long run. In terms of cosmic goodness and joy for the universe, I’m all about Chavvy.
Where Eric Chavez is concerned, I become one of those stupid irrational fans who cares less about boring things like actually making the team better and more about seeing the awesome dude that I love play baseball and make some good plays.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
love iglew's comment
Very nicely put.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
by kevfrpres2000 on Mar 13, 2010 12:44 AM PST up reply actions
Ah yes
For a fan base that enjoys “playing GM,” as do I, it does occur to me that still many A’s fans feel this way. And when the A’s themselves have been around ultra good guy with bad luck Eric this long I can understand going with the heart and playing Eric as long as he stays upright.
If that ends up making Barton lose trade value or never find it here only to find it somewhere else later, due to lack of day after day, consistent ABs, then so be it (I disagree but i understand why they will do this on many levels, PR, Eric’s last year, and hey, when healthy he is a good hitter for this team.)
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 14, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Anyone else superstitious?
I always wondered if signing a 6 year, $66 million contract spelt doom for him. You know, three sixes and all. I would’ve signed for 6/ $65 million. OK i wouldve signed for 6 years and $6….
Anyways, there is no chance that we see Chavvy at SS……..ever. If he’s barely mobile enough to play 3rd……than no. I’ll be happy if we get 200 PA’s from him this year. Don’t get me wrong, he’s always been one of my favorite players ever (behind McGwire and Rickey) but I am not expecting much out of him past June.
The sentimental part of me would like to see him re-signed next year (dirt cheap), and I’m with the crowd that believes that he could also contribute as an infielder coach (along side Gallego). I will bang my head against the wall (again) if another one of my favorite players wears any other uniform other than an A’s uniform. That list is just getting ridiculous.
Woe is me, I’m a fucking A’s fan. Fucking A I am.
I don't see how healthy productive players can be a detriment to a team
I also don’t see Chavy being healthy and productive. I would be surprised if Chavy was not on the DL come May.
It was explained here many times over
A healthy, productive Chavez will probably still not be as good as the other healthy, productive players at the positions he’s able to play. Because of his large contract (and the options available to others), he’ll likely get playing time over those other players.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I can see Chavez in....
the Nomar role of 2009. I’d be fine with that. Plays 2/3 of the season and gets a massive standing ovation in Boston, err…Oakland. After the season, signs a one-day contract and retires as an Athletic!
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 14, 2010 6:06 PM PDT reply actions
His only potential value is as a DH.
He’s not going to be able to field a position competently anymore. And since he isn’t likely to be a better hitter than Jack Cust even if he’s healthy, it’s time to send Chavy to the glue factory.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
can chavez play third at all anymore?
not regularly, but maybe 1-2x a week? i have no clue if his body can handle that…or playing, period. but if he could play third 1-2 days a week, play 1st 1-2 days, and DH another, that’s not really taking many ABs away. kouz and barton both get most of the ABs at third and first, as does cust at DH.
"can chavez play third at all anymore?"
My guess is no, not without getting injured very quickly. Same with SS.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
that's what i figured, given his shoulder and back issues
well, if he’s healthy enough, 2 days at 1st and 2 days at DH is plenty…still leaves most of the ABs for barton and cust. i’d honestly be shocked if chavez was able to actually play 4 days a week, but who knows, what with the wonders of modern medicine…
by guy incognito on Mar 17, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
It's too bad those guys are all LH
and that Cust and Chavez have an appreciable split. Otherwise, it would work better.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is all under the flimsy premise
That Eric would/will be healthy.
If it was just one day off (in addition to natural off days) for Barton per week, and they DHd him on those days Chavez played 1b when he was hitting well right then, then sure, no biggie.
But I’ve gotten the feeling from Geren that, if healthy, Chavez will play 1b to the point Barton can’t get full ABs.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 18, 2010 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Chavez is done release him
Back surgery-shoulder surgery and 2 for his last 22 abs. Remember Piazza-M Sweeney-FThomas-Giambi-Garciaparra. Beane needs to learn from his past mistakes
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