Professor Predicts Baseball Winners, Uses Baseball to Tout Power of Math
by A's_fan_in_NJ on Mar 11, 2010 5:41 AM PST
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PrintHis expected wins for the AL are as follows:
- AL East: Yankees -- 103; Rays -- 93; Red Sox -- 92; Orioles -- 71; Blue Jays -- 70.
- AL Central: Twins -- 92; White Sox -- 85; Tigers -- 74; Royals -- 72; Indians -- 67.
- AL West: Rangers -- 82; A's -- 81; Angels -- 80; Mariners -- 77.
For the NL, he projects as follows:
- NL East: Phillies -- 90; Braves -- 88; Mets -- 82; Marlins -- 76; Nationals -- 72;
- NL Central: Cards -- 91; Cubs -- 86; Brewers -- 78; Reds -- 74; Astros -- 73; Pirates -- 66.
- NL West: Dodgers -- 88; Diamondbacks -- 85; Rockies -- 84; Giants -- 80; Padres -- 77.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100309111635.htm
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professor forgot
There are no injuries in math. To many factors for anyone to measure how the season goes. It will be fun to see how far off his mathis at the end of the season.
Er, I'm pretty sure the professor didn't just "forget".
Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.
former math major
I can tell you that the x variable in any math formula would mess up any outcome more than maybe 5 days of games. Over 162 games it would be impossible for any formula to come closer than a 10 +/- outcome.
I don't think he ever
said these were projections without a margin of error. Of course there is something like a 10+/- based off of the margin of error for player projections and the lack of a very good model. You should take his numbers as an expected value.
vr, Xei
Twins
Yeah, they’re not winning 92 games if Joe Nathan needs Tommy John surgery. Will that professor adjust it?
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 11, 2010 6:15 AM PST reply actions
Why not?
They have a top 5 offense in the AL… top 5 defense in the AL… pitchers that throw strikes and let them hit the ball to that good D.
If Nathan is out, it’ll cost them maybe a couple wins. And there’s a decent chance one of their other relief pitchers will pitch Nathan-esque. AND Liriano is healthy again.
I’m not saying they will win 92, but without Nathan they’re still the best team in the AL Central.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Agreed
I’m not saying they will win 92, but without Nathan they’re still the best team in the AL Central.
I think that’s true, but I think they’re just a little better than the White Sox.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 11, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
A's with 81 wins and Giants with 80...
hmmm… seems unlikely to me. Not so much the A’s with 81, but something tells me the Giants are going to do better than 80.
"I’m actually a disgrace to myself right now." - Sean Gallagher (quoting me after a night out on the town)
Why do you need baseball to show people how awesome math is?
isn’t it evident?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
by bobnothing on Mar 11, 2010 12:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Is there a reason this is more relevant
than PECOTA, CHONE, ZIPS, or Bill James? I didn’t see any sort of formula in the article, and his website is a gambling advice website. There’s plenty of math in baseball already, and it’s all very good and exciting, but I’m not sure why this guy thinks he’s being more relevant than any of the other mathematicians doing good work.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Mar 11, 2010 1:46 PM PST reply actions
um...
considering there’s no such reference either in this post or the actual article, was this a necessary comment/question?
Seems like the obvious question to me....
It’s great to see quite a few projections before the season. The real question is which ones to trust.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
There is one thing we can all agree on
The Pirates are going to be terrible.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
i was told there would be math
where is the math?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
genius
Now why didn’t I think of that?
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
It is nothing more than a tout site
99% of all touters are full of b.s. He is basically selling picks, not trying to sell math as being fun and or cool. There is no description of how his model works. It is b.s.
vr, Xei
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