Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: VIDEO: Austin Rivers' Buzzer Beater Finishes Off UNC

Adjusting Kevin Kouzmanoff's San Diego Numbers

For those that don't know, San Diego's Petco Park is huge. Cavernous. Gigantic. Because of the deep, deep fences, it's necessary to perform park adjustments when analyzing a traded player, especially when dealing with such an extreme case like Petco. Thankfully, most projection systems do this automatically, and the results are included in the projection. Projection systems usually perform park adjustments by way of a statistic called Park Factor. This statistic gives a value that rates how far away from the average a park is at run scoring. (ESPN's calculations from 2009 are linked here, and yes, Petco Park has ranked 30th out of 30 for three years running.) Then, batting lines are adjusted proportionally across the board. This approach is fine for most uses, but the proportional approach allows room for special exceptions that buck the rule. Johnny Damon at the short right porch in Yankee Stadium comes to mind. To cover these exceptions, you'd have to directly compare batted balls to the shape and size of a particular park.

 

Thanks to Sean Kelly, I've found an undeniably cool tool to compare batted balls from one park to another. To give an example of what this tool is capable of (and to illustrate the sheer size of Petco Park), here are all of the batted balls hit at Oakland in 2009, overlaid on top of Petco. All of the red/orange dots were turned into outs. The blue dots were hit safely, where a darker shade represents more bases (home runs are the darkest blue ones). Take a look at how many Oakland home runs would have been outs in San Diego.

Oaklandoverpetco_medium

Star-divide

Obviously, a park like that is going to impact a player's numbers by a ton. How much did Petco Park affect Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers? Last year, with half of his games at Petco, he hit .255/.302/.420, with 18 HRs. Below, I've circled (in black) the non-HRs that would have left the park in Oakland.

Kouzmanofftranslation_medium

Five. Five balls that landed inside Petco would have left the park in Oakland. With those black circled balls (two doubles, one triple, and two fly outs) turned into home runs, Kouzmanoff's line stands at a nicer .259/.305/.444. That's a 28 point increase in OPS, all from moving to a slightly less pitcher-friendly park.

A warning: This is far from an exact science, as there are far too many variables unaccounted for in this simple overlay. Atmospheric effects, like the heavy Oakland marine layer or the jet stream in Yankee Stadium (not to mention the thin air in Denver), aren't taken into consideration. Wall height isn't accounted for, which throws off results from Fenway, for example. And these ball positions are taken from MLB Gameday, which means that the dots represent where balls were fielded, rather than where they landed. The difference shouldn't be much, except for doubles and triples that were allowed to roll around a bit.

Stick around when the A's take on the Chicago White Sox at 12:05 today. Game thread to follow.

 

Odds and Ends

  • I've circled (in blue) a group of balls that, due to the aforementioned possible errors, are close enough to the wall that they could leave the Oakland Coliseum with some luck. If those four balls (after excluding the darker red lineout) were home runs, his batting line would be .265/.311/.471. That's almost 60 points of OPS above his unadjusted line.
  • If you take the average between the unadjusted Petco line and the best case scenario batting line, you get .260/.307/.446. That falls directly in the middle of the range of projections that Fangraphs features (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and Fan).
  • Baseball-Reference also features Park Factor calculations, albeit with a different formula. I used ESPN's up top because I can't find a single table of all B-R Park Factors, but you can view each separately on each B-R team page (2009 Petco here).
  • Hit Tracker Online analyzes every home run and corrects for atmospherics. Additionally, they extrapolate the "true" landing distance of each ball if there were no stands or fences in the way. Unfortunately, they don't track deep fly outs (coming in 2007!), which is needed for a Petco to Coliseum translation. But otherwise, it's a fantastic site, and a very fun one to kill some time with.

Comment 43 comments  |  4 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

That OBP is still ugly

And look at how many foul outs in Oakland were in the seats in San Diego. You may lose in OBP at least some of what you gain in SLG.

by kenarneson on Mar 10, 2010 7:13 AM PST reply actions  

Yup -- he's a "vast difference between OBP and SLG" type,

which IMO means he should, ideally, hit 5th-6th, not 3rd-4th. Get Sweeney, Barton, Cust ahead of him. And for the love of dog, Coco Crisp 8th, not 1st or 2nd.

Great topic, btw, danmerqury — you rock.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 10, 2010 8:02 AM PST up reply actions  

This is a really neat post

You know, I’m no stats cruncher, but I was already guessing that Kouz has a chance to hit for higher avg./slg% in the Al, along with putting up 25 bombs.
It’s not out of the question by any means…..

I do agree about putting him lower in the order, though. His OBP needs to go up and he could learn to take a few more walks before batting him cleanup. Not sure how that’s all gonna shake out but the choices are somewhat limited unless Chavez has a miracle health turnabout! Go A’s!

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 10, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Well done.

"Men don't live well by themselves. They live like bears with furniture." -Rita Rudner

by ptbarnum on Mar 10, 2010 8:26 AM PST reply actions  

So what you're saying is that he's not a good hitter

regardless of the park?

Nice article though. That certainly is an interesting tool you’ve found.

Some motherfcukers are always trying to ice skate uphill - Blade.

by OldhamA on Mar 10, 2010 8:54 AM PST reply actions  

Still better then Chavez the last 3 years

He might not be a good hitter but I won’t complain that we have a name that will more then likely be out there the majority of he season.

by inspyro on Mar 10, 2010 9:02 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm hoping he'll be a better hitter than Hannahan

Hannahan’s offense was more of a problem than his defense at 3B

by OaklandSi on Mar 10, 2010 9:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I always thought his defence at 3B was overrated.

Still yeah, I’m pretty sure Kouz will be an improvement over him.

Some motherfcukers are always trying to ice skate uphill - Blade.

by OldhamA on Mar 10, 2010 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Almost anything would be better than the black hole that we had there last year

Still, getting Kouz is wayyyyyy better than what we could have been looking at.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Mar 10, 2010 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I really, really don't see how this is true.

I think Kouzmanoff is a marginal upgrade over the mishmash of possibilities at best.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Hannahan's no gold glover

but I think his offense was more the problem than his defence. If his offense came anywhere close to what Adam Kennedy did on offense in 2009 I doubt the A’s would have felt the need to trade him last year, and trade for Kouzmanoff this offseason.

by OaklandSi on Mar 10, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm no Miley fan, but I came around on his defense

He had a pretty weak arm, but he pretty much sucked up every ball that came his way. There’s a reason Seattle actually gave up something to get him.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Awesome again, Dan

You are quickly becoming my favorite front-page writer.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Mar 10, 2010 9:30 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

+1

I almost always learn something about the game reading his posts.

"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra

by Ovale Fan on Mar 10, 2010 11:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks, guys.

Definitely means a lot.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 11, 2010 12:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Petco Homeruns

Looks like he still managed to hit 9 home runs at Petco in spite of the deep fences. What are his home avg/obp/ops like in San Diego as opposed to in other national league parks? And are American League parks, on average, shorter fenced than national league parks? If so, would that help explain why you can’t win without having sluggers in the AL?

Also, is anyone else curious if Jim Skaalen is going to force Kouzmanoff to adopt a more patient approach? Or are the A’s done with that now that we’re playing small ball?

These clothes are good enough to drink in, and so be these boots, too.

by RayFosseRules on Mar 10, 2010 9:33 AM PST reply actions  

Just looked it up...

Kouzmanoff’s line at Petco last season: .220/.280/.382/.661 compared to .287/.323/.455/.778 on the road. I’m very happy if we see something close to those away numbers in Oakland.

These clothes are good enough to drink in, and so be these boots, too.

by RayFosseRules on Mar 10, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Me too!

"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets

by mrod on Mar 10, 2010 9:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Unfortunately...

Oakland is also a pretty severe pitchers park (though not nearly as bad as Petco of course), so something in between those two sets of slashes is reasonable.

by train80 on Mar 10, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Foul ground...

I’d love it if it were this easy, but you really need to take into account way more stuff than just distance to fences when you’re doing this type of stuff (which I know you know). For one obvious thing, how many of those “potential” home runs don’t even get hit because the pitch before was caught for a foul out behind home plate because we’re in Oakland and not Petco?

This stuff is fun to look at, but if you’re doing park adjustments, there’s no reason not to use a real tool like Baseball Reference of ZiPS.

by sardonic on Mar 10, 2010 9:33 AM PST reply actions  

I don't know

I would guess that there would only be 2-5 more foul outs over 81 games. I would also suspect that there were 1-3 balls caught in the outfield in Oakland that wouldn’t have been caught in San Diego because there is less ground to cover in Oakland.

I could be wrong, I don’t know where to look up that information and would rather someone tell me I am dumb than search for a while.

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury

by Future Ed on Mar 10, 2010 10:04 AM PST up reply actions  

projections

Here are links to A’s projections by Chone and ZiPS.

Chone has him at .259/.304/.431
ZiPS has .264/.310/.448

I mean, I really don’t mean to be a spoilsport. The underlying reasoning is fundamentally right in that moving the Oakland will probably help his numbers, and specifically his home run numbers. And it’s fun to look at hit charts.

But it does seem kind of pointless to “park adjust” his numbers while only adjusting for differences in home runs, when there are tons of park adjusted projections out there that are really quite good and adjust for a lot of stuff.

by sardonic on Mar 10, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions  

and

I should add, linked to in the entry itself.

by sardonic on Mar 10, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions  

This definitely isn't meant to be a finished projected answer or anything.

But you’re right, there are a ton of other factors that account for many things this doesn’t. I’d trust a real projection system over this method for sure. This article is for comparing home runs, and not much more.

Taken down with hearts alive, our hearts alive.

by danmerqury on Mar 10, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions  

But will anyone hit .300 or win 15 games????

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 10, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions  

it is tough to win 15 games...

I looked up the 2009 playoff teams and posted the results in my FanPost. The Phillies and Dodgers had no 15 game winners and the Yankees and Twins had only 1 each. Phillies didn’t have any .300 hitters, either. ;-)

"I’m actually a disgrace to myself right now." - Sean Gallagher (quoting me after a night out on the town)

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2010 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

so, our Green & Gold are probably a lock...

to win it all this year!!! Yay!

"I’m actually a disgrace to myself right now." - Sean Gallagher (quoting me after a night out on the town)

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2010 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

He's a crapload better than

Kenndy + Crosby + Zombez + Hannnannnannnhan

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Mar 10, 2010 10:34 AM PST reply actions  

I'd agree with him at 5 or 6 in the lineups

vs. RHP, but he should be at 3 or 4 vs. lefties. Career .798 OPS vs. LHP, do we really have many better options? I mean we know just how great this team has been against lefties the last few years….

"Did you know you can comment on Athletics Nation from your phone or PDA? SB Nation has launched mobile commenting. Check it out next time you’re at the game or bar and have something to say."

by stranahanahan on Mar 10, 2010 10:35 AM PST reply actions  

That's fair, certainly for this lineup

In this lineup, really the only way he doesn’t bat 3rd/4th against RHP is probably if it goes something like:

Davis
Barton
Sweeney
Cust

which means 3 LH in a row, two of whom don’t handle LHP very well.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 10, 2010 7:41 PM PST up reply actions  

The projection systems account for this, but the post doesn't

He’s also moving from the NL to the AL. Whatever improvement his numbers might show from a change in parks will be negated by facing better competition.

Guys with .300-.310 OBPs and just “okay” defense just don’t do anything for me.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2010 11:00 AM PST reply actions  

The difference in competition is vastly overblown and in no way compares to the impact of leaving Petco Park.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Mar 10, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

you'll never love me

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.

The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco

by bobnothing on Mar 10, 2010 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Y'know I missed the photo caption the first time around.

Nico is having a bad influence on all of the front page writers. :-P

Some motherfcukers are always trying to ice skate uphill - Blade.

by OldhamA on Mar 10, 2010 11:32 AM PST reply actions  

thank you for pointing that out!

I love silly captions, takes me back to the days of Creem magazine.

by stormtown on Mar 10, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Oooh

pretty colors

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Mar 10, 2010 1:53 PM PST reply actions  

Multi-colored squirrel!

(runs after pretty squirrel)

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Mar 10, 2010 5:46 PM PST up reply actions  

You seem to be getting smarter lately.

I’m concerned.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 10, 2010 7:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice job!

But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal

by WaddellCanseco on Mar 10, 2010 2:44 PM PST reply actions  

Looks like

Someone really got a hold of one in the top left corner of the graph. Would like to know who the OF was that tracked it down :)

by A's10thMan on Mar 11, 2010 10:39 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Oakland Athletics.

Community Guidelines ANcillary Terms

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Img_2672_small
Long-Term Outlook
Img_1877_small
DLD 1/30/12 - fANfest!

Recent FanPosts

Small
Keith Law top 100 prospects 2012
Small
Roy Oswalt = opportunity
Choice_small
Tom Milone, by the numbers: Maddux, Glavine, Halladay, Radke...
Img_1877_small
Behind Enemy Lines
Lt-922060_small
All-Time Oakland A's team
Aoakland_a_s_05_small
Manny vs. Magglio
Aperture_logo_small
Community Prospect List #3
Cimg3825_small
The Closer Battle Between T-Rex and The Mad Aussie
Small
Rich Harden to the bullpen?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Front Page Writers

Maya_papi_small Tyler Bleszinski

08-_the_author_small 67MARQUEZ

Josefav2_small danmerqury

Baseball_small baseballgirl

Poochini-butt_in_box_2_small Nico

Img_0653_small dwishinsky

Front Page Writers

Smiley_face_small gigglingone

Venasfans_small OaklandSi

60-minutes-clock_small cuppingmaster

Patpicturebucky2_small YonYonson

Img_3830_small David Fung

Moderators

Photofunia-5c770b_small coffee roaster

Denver_small Colorado Fan

Ls_logo100_small LoneStranger

Thumbs_up_small LongTimeFan

Marty_profile_in_green_small mrod

Img_1877_small Billy Frijoles

Babycomputergeek_small paris7

Img_0115_small Tutu-late