A PitchFX Look at Ben Sheets
If there's one key move that Billy Beane has made this offseason (out of what seems like a million) it's the acquisition of Ben Sheets. Beane went out and nabbed the biggest wildcard on the market. If that doesn't sound like classic Billy Beane, it's because, well, it's not. But Beane's never been one to sink into a predictable rhythm. Signing Sheets gives the A's a true ace at the top of the rotation to go along with our possible near-ace production from Justin Duchscherer and Brett Anderson, so now's as good a time as any to crack open the PitchFX vault again to try to get a clearer picture of our new frontline ace.
Let's get the basic stuff out of the way. Sheets throws a 93-mph four-seam fastball with huge "rise", an 84-mph changeup, and his famous 80-mph 12-to-6 curveball. Taken on its own, his curveball doesn't really drop all that much (three to four inches--compare to Zito's ridiculous ten-inch curve). More importantly, though, Sheets has a well above average 14-inch difference between his fastball and his curveball due to his fastball's abnormally large "rise". That fastball/curveball difference appears larger to hitters because Sheets's curveball comes in at an almost slider-like high speed. Throw in Sheets's impeccable command, and you have a pitcher who earns every bit of his career 7.60 K/9.
But Sheets's trickery doesn't end there. I picked a game to crunch PitchFX numbers for (his one-run complete game against the Braves on June 23, 2008), and this jumped out at me:
Ben Sheets uses two distinct arm slots. To make sure it wasn't a one game error, I used Fangraphs's PitchFX game charts to confirm it. All throughout 2008, Sheets used two separate release points--an extreme overhand delivery mixed in with a more conventional three-quarters arm slot. And the kicker? His pitches were identical in both release points. That's incredible. Sheets is able to throw the same fastball and the same curveball from two release points, without any change in velocity or motion.
Compare this to the James Simmons AFL PitchFX report I did, where I caught Simmons toying with a new arm slot. When James Simmons moved to a lower release point, he lost 5-10 mph on all of his pitches, with an increase in lateral movement. Granted, Simmons's release point change was more drastic than Sheets's, but I don't see any velocity penalty at all.
In short, Ben Sheets is what happens when you mix a deceiving control artist with solidly above average stuff (unfortunately married to a body that seems to constantly be at an injury risk). Let's ride him while we can, folks, because in terms of pitching talent, Ben Sheets looks like the best pitcher we've had since Rich Harden.
Update: All credit goes to ST for this idea. It turns out that the release point depends on the handedness of the batter. When facing right-handed hitters, he pitches with the overhand delivery. Lefties get the three-quarters arm slot. Anyone have any insights on why he chooses to do this?
Odds and Ends
- I would have considered the possibility that Sheets is just messy and inaccurate with his arm slot, but poor mechanics would likely leave a smear of release points, rather than two distinct concentrations. And hey, the guy has a sub-2 BB/9. I think it's fair to say that he's not exactly a wild pitcher.
- This is just speculation, but I think the reason that the release points are lower than you'd expect (the overhand one should be somewhere around his listed 6'1" + an arm's length) is because PitchFX doesn't actually track the release point. Rather, the system starts measuring at a point 50 feet from home plate, or around 10 feet from the mound. In any case, what matters is the difference between the two slots, not the actual height.
- Er, check this out. In 2004, Sheets pitched a complete game against the Braves, striking out 18.
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Comments
There aren't a lot of teams that have 2 legitimate Cy Young candidates...
and Brett Anderson-type to pitch in the 3rd spot.
Think about how many MLB-ready (or close to that) prospects the A’s could get in July if Duch. and Sheets are healthy and pitching well. Of course if they’re pitching well and are healthy, the A’s could become contenders if the offense surprises us.
But, again, the A’s could almost rob two entire systems of top-notch talent in July.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Duke isn't a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and wasn't worth much in 2008 at the deadline.
He won’t be worth much in 2010 either.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 9, 2010 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
He had a 2.54 ERA in 141 innings in 2008... with a WHIP under 1.00
Of course, he has to stay healthy and show he’s over his depression…
Ok, the A’s might not be in it meaning he probably wouldn’t win the actual award. But he is certainly more than capable of putting up Cy Young numbers.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Zack Greinke's team wasn't "in it" and he did ok.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
True, but no matter what your K numbers,
if you can keep your ERA at 2.54 you’re a contender.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not if you cant make more than 25 starts
how many games did chris carpeonter start this year?
"They (The 1989 A's) are the best team I ever saw"- Mike Krukow
OK, but it's fairly obvious that his ERA was not going to remain at 2.54...
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Sweet -- good job again, man
A couple questions though:
1. What’s the breakdown of how often he uses each armslot? If I had to guess, I’d say 65% over/35% three-quarters.
2. Is it my imagination or does he seem to throw more breaking pitches from the three-quarters slot?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
I wouldn't read too much into the actual numbers.
These charts are based on one game. If I had more time, I’d put a chart together of the entire 2008 season, which could answer these questions.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
I remember him talking about struggling to find his arm slot at one point
Maybe he varies the slot deliberately, but I’m not buying it at least not yet.
He’s been “working on” a change-up his whole career and has been getting a bit better every year.
Besides throwing the curveball for a called strike, he throws it straight at the heart of the plate. Having watched straight fastballs, players start their swing and then the ball bounces in front of the plate. Be ready Kurt.
He routinely sucks bad in ST. Fans wail and moan. Then he comes out like Jed Clampett… Jet Li… Jason Statham… hell, Ben Sheets, and kicks ass.
p.s. His hitting skills belong in the AL
Is there..
a specific arm-slot angle he throws to left/righties that can explain the difference? Good insight!
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
Oh wow, I didn't even think of that.
And you’re right. Turns out he pitches overhand to righties and three-quarters to lefties. It’s a perfect match with the data.
Great catch!
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
Kool...
Is there a location or pitch he usually throws to left handers vs. righties? This might explain the different arm angle. I’m no expert in pitching, but when i played ball in HS, (crappy as I was) I threw more 3/4 angle to get more bite on my slider and cutter, especially to lefties when pitching inside. Of course, I have to caveat this with the fact that I had no idea what mechanics was good or bad for it. It just seemed to work for me.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
by ST on Feb 9, 2010 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
That's very odd, don't you think?
I would have expected overhand to lefties and three-quarters to righties. Isn’t it the case that the farther you drop down, the more vulnerable you are to opposite-siders? Sidearmers have the largest platoon splits, and Barry Zito’s big overhand curve was one reason he had excellent success against righties, but didn’t dominate lefties like a lot of southpaws do. You didn’t by any chance get that backwards, did you? Otherwise, color me puzzled.
My thoughts exactly
I would have thought you would drop down to same side and make sure not to with opposite side.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just got here...
Maybe Sheets slides to the right of the rubber vs. Lefties. Vice-versa v. Righties.
I can’t imagine that his arm angle would be so apparent. Batters would pick up on this to adjust on fastballs vs. offspeed stuff.
by Colorado Fan on Feb 10, 2010 7:24 AM PST up reply actions
I just double checked to be sure.
In the game I got the data for, Sheets pitched overhand to Yunel Escobar, a righty, then pitched from a three-quarters arm slot to Kelly Johnson, a lefty. It was perfectly consistent.
Interesting.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
SuSlu, are you there?
We have a question we’d like you to ask Ben Sheets!
that game from 2004
Game Score is 94, which is very nice.
But that got me looking over the Game Scores that Oakland pitchers put up last year. The best? Brett Anderson, of course. Complete game shutout at Fenway, allowing 2 hits and 2 walks to 9 strikeouts (Game Score was only 90, though).
Man, that is a sweet thing to write.
Bottom of the 4th: three up, three down (all Ks)
Bottom of the 9th: three up, three down (all weak).
Both times: Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz.
Stewart: "What really needs to be clear is it wouldn't have mattered if there was an earthquake or not. We were going to beat the Giants.
Should we start praying for him to have good health now? Or wait until Spring Training so we don't seem needy?
I mean, doesn’t God owe use one after taking Father Desme away?
I never really looked at Sheets very closely in the past, I always thought he was a power pitcher with poor control. Obviously I was wrong.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Feb 9, 2010 10:09 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Sheets is going to go like 10 - 0 by July with a 1.07 era and a 9/0 K/B ratio
So come the trade deadline the A’s will get something close to what they got for Haren.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Even then, he won't command anywhere near that price.
Haren had three years of team control left when we traded him. Sheets’ll have a half a year.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
swap out Haren for Holliday
and Sheets will be worth about half that package.
If he proves he’s healthy why not sign him long term?
Because "proving healthy" really only means
proving healthy in 2010.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nice job--thanks for posting!
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
I dont completely understand pitchFX
because Im lazy and havent read up on it, but it looks really thorough and awesome so I might blindly trust it. One thing that is a pet peeve of mine is this line however:
Signing Sheets gives the A’s a true ace at the top of the rotation
Why isnt Anderson considered our “true ace”? Its his age, right? I think of him as being our best pitcher and #1 and have no idea why he isnt considered as such. Kershaw is getting disrespected even worse in LA where this ridiculous “true ace” term is even worse and getting media attention.
We really need to move away from these olden days “1-5” or “ace-back end” terms. A good pitcher is a good pitcher, a great one is a great one and Daniel Cabrera will always suck. Who gives a shit what day they throw on during the year, it only matters in the playoffs really. “True ace” my ass. The Yankees have 4 “true aces”, yet one of them has to start on the 4th day not the first, Mark Redman went to an ASG because he was the Royals “ace”: its a misleading and stoneage term that needs to be done away with.
Sheets for Kershaw!
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 9, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Done
I need the veteran presence that Sheets would bring. I don’t trust the young’uns! Have your people call my people.
—Signed, Ned Colletti
True Ace is sort of lame anyway...
There was this whole argument about it in some other thread. I think fo an Ace as a “number 1.” There are 30 teams, so the top 30 FIP’s are what I think of as an ace… of course, there is a lot of separation between Tim Lincecum/Zack Greinke and Kevin Corriea.
Brett Anderson posted a Top 30 at 3.69. That is Identical to The Duke’s 2008 (though Anderson pitched roughly 30 more innings).
Ben Sheets Career FIP is 3.51. In 2008, his was 3.38. I think that si why people refer to him as a “true ace.” He has performed better.
I don’t care who anyone calls a “true ace,” all three of these guys is good.
Let’s hope the duct tape, crazy glue and chicken wire that keeps Duke and Sheets on the field stays intact.
If Gio/Maz/Cahill and Braden can all throw strikes and be middle of the pack… this is a deep 1 through 5. If any one of them has a top tier year, look the hell out. It’d be like Hudson, Mulder, Zito and Lidle in 2002… Holy crap that was a good rotation.
Brett Anderson, "true aces" and the Cy Young
Tim Hudson was runner up for Cy Young in 2000, his 2nd season. And since he spent the first third of his rookie season in the minors, he entered his Cy runner-up season with significantly less major league experience than Brett Anderson has right now.
Mark Mulder was runner-up for Cy young in 2001, his 2nd season. Mulder at least had almost as much experience as Anderson has today – he’d made two minor league starts before being called up in his rookie season, and had put in about 20 fewer major league IP than Anderson has to his credit. Mulder’s rookie season was also vastly less impressive than Anderson’s – in fact it looked more like Cahill’s: hideous hit totals, K/IP and K/W ratios. It’s fair to say that his abrupt 2nd-year breakout was not exactly something you’d have bet on before it happened. (For those hoping for a similar breakout from Cahill, hey I’d love to see it too, but Mulder’s breakout was far out of the norm for guys with 5.44 ERAs and 88:69 K:W ratios – shudder! – and Mulder’s 2nd overall position in the draft did sort of presage some talents he’d hidden rather well in his first season.)
Barry Zito won the Cy Young in 2002, his 3rd season. But his rookie season was less than half a season long, so he really had less than half a season more experience heading into his Cy Young season than Brett Anderson has today.
My point is that competing for the Cy when still wet behind the ears is not so very uncommon. If I were forced to bet, I’d rather put my money on Anderson’s chances at a prize than on Sheets’ and Duchscherer’s chances combined – and I like those guys a lot.
by Faust on Feb 9, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Correlation? Sure.
Causation? Damned if I know. Peterson’s golden touch seemed to disappear when he went to the Mets.
The 2001 Cy was a crock of shit
If there was ever a reason to question how shitty a job the writers do, this would be it.
Out of the 6 SPs that got votes, Clemens led them in NO statistical categories other than WALKS (uhh thats a negative category) and had the highest ERA out of the lot. He had the lowest amount of losses, but thats it and that stat relates to entire team performance not the individual. He was a totally lousy choice. Garcia or Mussina would have been much better choices. Mulder’s ERA was too high.
It would be so great if they re-did all the awards based wholly on stats that way the awards would actually mean something and fatass Colon wouldnt be known as the best pitcher of 2005. Zito wouldnt have a Cy either, Pedro annihilated him that year, numbers wise. But fuckit, Id rather have the awards truthful and legit than some stupid writer with a grudge deciding them.
With apologies to LB
It was just too good an opportunity to pass up.
Let's not forget Vida Blue
He won the Cy Young Award in his first full season at age 22 (21 at the start of the season).
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
In 2004, Sheets pitched a complete game against the Braves, striking out 18.
116 pitches for 91 strikes!!!
What a monster, I’m so stoked for opening day.
If Sheets is himself,
the A’s picked up a whale of a pitcher. He literally pitches like anyone who plays MLB’09 The Show pitches with their favorite guy. 70-80% strikes, plenty of K’s, no runs.
He could come back 2-3mph down from his usual 93 and still be a considerably above-average pitcher. The guy can simply paint.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
only 6 years ago!
"They (The 1989 A's) are the best team I ever saw"- Mike Krukow
by 9Custs on Feb 9, 2010 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
the reason for the change in arm slots..
And remember I only pitched in high school but I two different release points also, although I never mastered either. I think the reason he changes is deception. I bet if he goes three quarters to right handed batters he would get rocked because the righty would see something that would tip off his pitches but to a lefty, they may not see the same thing….I figured it out the hard way…but yes I was more deceptive when I went over the top to right handed hitters..thanks back to lurking
ohio roots
"Look how far this is from your ‘Moneyball’ theories a couple years ago," Buckley said. "They were drafting all college pitchers. And now who’s the team that got the 16-year-old? Oakland." Chris Buckley, the Cincinnati Reds’ scouting director.
by nickatt7 on Feb 9, 2010 3:43 PM PST via mobile reply actions
arm slots
i was imagining those pose for funny photo boards you see at tourist places. or Stocks.
alaska A residing in northern Idaho.
Off topic, but does anybody know when the BA prospects hanbook comes out?
"They (The 1989 A's) are the best team I ever saw"- Mike Krukow
February 22
$13.50 on Amazon.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Feb 9, 2010 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
I Have Mine
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arm slot
It seems that he prefers to go to the 3 quarters arm slot against lefties to get more movement on his change (and 4 seam fastball) AWAY from the hitter. Sinkerballers, for example, don’t want to throw over-the-top, because they get more movement from a lower arm slot.
by greenpaddedgloves on Feb 10, 2010 8:08 AM PST reply actions
Sheets doesn't change his arm slot
He sets up on a different end of the pitching rubber depending on the handedness of the hitter. That’s what explains why the movement on the pitches is the same but the release point shifts left-to-right.


Fascinating!
Thanks for this. Clearly, this is a far simpler answer, and it solves pretty much every question in this post.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
Now that we know the answer
I can see that we missed a clue that should have at least allowed us to surmise the answer before Mike showed us the pix. The two release points we were interpreting as “over the top” and “three-quarters” are exactly the same height, whereas we should expect a three-quarters delivery to be release from a lower point than over the top (a ten-thirty position as opposed to twelve o’clock).
I see Sheets lines up so as to give himself a straight shot at the outside corner, which is of course any pitcher’s most frequent target. I wonder if any pitchers line up the opposite way from Sheets, opposite the batter’s inside corner? You’d lose the advantage of the repeatable direct line to the outside corner, but you’d gain better motion away from the batter against righties (somewhat simulating sidearm delivery without actually sidearming) while reducing the towards-the-batter movement that lefty hitters tend to find to their liking.
Most pitchers who shift do so opposite of the way Sheets does
Trevor Hoffman and Ben Sheets are the only ones in the majors now who shift toward the outside corner. Jose Contreras, Francisco Liriano, Darren O’Day, Manny Corpas, Felipe Paulino, Ehren Wasserman, and Alberto Castillo are among the handful of pitchers who shift toward the inside corner.
Brad Kilby looks, from the data,
like another Athletic that might shift positions on the rubber based on batter handedness.
Brett Anderson shifted positions in April and May, but starting in June he used the same position against both righties and lefties.

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