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Around SBN: Jon Jones, Rashad Evans Reignite Rivalry

How Adrian Gonzalez can become an Oakland A.

Now I know what you're thinking: "hurry up and do another Dugout ripoff already!" but screw that, I have needs too: the need to talk about incredibly far reaching conspiracies that are directly connected to my own paranoias! Or maybe its just some relatively hack-y investigative journalism, I dunno, I don't have much of an ego so I'll let you draw your own conclusion there.

Look, Jose was is and will always be RIGHT about everything he wrote in Juiced. He has been 100% so far on everyone he called out for roids, and silenced many critics (who still called him a douchebag regardless, because, well, he is.). One thing that always got me was when he said he was "blacklisted by MLB because he knew the TRUTH and was about to blow it up" many thought: "Oh get out of town Jose, MLB doesnt secretly blacklist anyone, its baseball not the Illuminati!" guess what: it looks like he was RIGHT. He OPS'd 850 in his final year and wasnt looking for an outlandish contract, he was still a useful DH yet no one offered him any kind of contract for the 2002 season. I used to laugh at the WWE because of how insanely irrational and illogical and corny the storylines were, and that baseball was better to waste my time thinking about because it was real. Now after seeing the crazyness thats gone on in Jose's life, Im starting to think MLB might be just as absurd, only (sadly) this is real life. 

How does this all pertain to the A's getting Adrian Gonzalez? Read on...

Star-divide

The newest conspiracy theory, or at least something that's going on without being talked about in detail is: how MLB is inquiring in on low spending teams such as the A's and Marlins on just what they are doing with their revenue sharing. There has been some quiet chatter/fingerpointing that certain teams are pocketing the sharing and not spending it on player personnel. The A's are one such team. Oakland lacks after this year, any players locked in on long term deal. Beane & Wolff's style flies in the face of doing anything like that, and they favor short term/high dollar deals and the all-powerful 6 years of a player they brought up through their own system (or poaching someone from someone elses). However the money they are getting from sharing isnt adding up. This is why we are hearing about expensive contract offers put out for Scutaro, Beltre, Furcal and Chapman and overpaying for Sheets and Taveras and Miles. All that being said: the A's still have the lowest payroll in the American League in 2010. (Crazy huh?)

Seeing how Beane's style doesnt mesh with revenue sharing, or just putting a lot of dollars in FA's pockets, why not find another Chavez to sign? Seeing how Beane is actively trying to spend this money, he can afford to throw it at an elite player, and Adrian Gonzalez is one such player who is available.

Beane's big post 2007 rebuild is starting to bear fruit. We are stacked all over the diamond: pitching, OFers, 1B and 2B. We just traded for a young 3B and have reason to be pretty confident with our depth at every position on the diamond expect SS. We don't really need to mess around with things too badly, so signing an elite player to a lengthy deal is strangely, the least risky thing we could do. Gonzalez is a 1B and a spectacular baseball player, however if he pulls a Chavez and gets hurt, we still have to pay him and guess what: 1B are pretty easy to come by. If he somehow flops, then great we go get a 1B from somewhere and dont really miss a beat. The flipside to that is that AG's 6.3 WAR isnt anything we can expect out of 1B anytime soon, so if he works out then he works out great.

The Padres are going to want talent, and Im not sure the Red Sox or Mariners or whoever else has been making noise about trading for AG can come close to what we can afford to give up. Here's a list of our players that I wouldnt mind trading 3 to 5 of them for AG and then signing him to a long-term deal, thus getting MLB off our backs and letting Beane still work his natural style of finding undervalued players:

Trevor Cahill, Ryan Sweeney, Raj Davis, Jemile Weeks, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, Josh Donaldson, Jake Fox, Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Sean Dolittle, Sam Demel, James Simmons.

There's no way in hell that talent pool can be matched or beaten by Seattle or Boston. Now feast your eyes on 2011:

1B: A. Gonzalez

2B: A Cardenas

SS: G. Green

3B: K. Kouzmanoff

C: K. Suzuki

LF: M. Taylor

CF: Weeks or Brown or Davis

RF: Brown or Sweeney or Dolittle or even FA

DH: C. Carter

 

Now if you read all that and hated it, guess what? Fangraphs just unveiled their splits category for individual player pages! That's awesome! There, this wasnt a completely useless read now, wasnt it?

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so, uh, he can become an Athletic if the team trades a bunch of players for him.

This is news?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 7, 2010 10:08 PM PST reply actions  

The more important part

is the part where the supposed “small market” team signs a player to a monster contract because MLB basically is forcing them to.

by PL78 on Feb 7, 2010 10:15 PM PST up reply actions  

What are the odds the Pads dont pick up his 2011 option?

The the A’s just end up losing a 1st rnd draft pick for a type A FA, and can sign away a huge contract with no Chavy or Sheets on the payroll.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:34 PM PST up reply actions  

My rout though....

would be to invest that money in signing the likes of Carter, Taylor, Cardenas, etc etc through their arby years +1 or 2 on top. I think they could get away with that and some medium FA signings on the order of the median of Sheets and Duke.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:37 PM PST up reply actions  

invest that money in signing the likes of Carter, Taylor, Cardenas, etc etc through their arby years +1 or 2 on top

Those arbitration-buyout contracts given to young studs aren’t going to happen anymore. There was a 2-3 year window where teams were able to lock up guys beyond arb years (Longoria, McCann, Swisher, Haren) and everyone marveled at how team-friendly they were. Which meant they wouldn’t last. By now, agents have realized that those deals were potentially costing their clients money, which meant the agents were also losing money. So agents are no longer encouraging their clients to sign such contracts.

by scatterbrian on Feb 8, 2010 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

but they can still keep those guys and keep the payroll low

In 2011, the A’s have one commitment: $2.8M to Michael Wuertz. Everyone else is either arbitration eligible or making the minimum. (Chavez, Ellis and Crisp all have options for 2011, but I don’t see the A’s picking up any of them. So that’s another $4M)

by scatterbrian on Feb 8, 2010 2:52 PM PST up reply actions  

This is not true

There’s a basic economic reason why those contracts will continue to a. exist, and b. be team-friendly.

Players have a steeply diminishing marginal utility of money. Your 4 millionth dollar (vaguely, the amount needed for a nice house and a posh retirement) is worth a ton more to you than your 40 millionth dollar (which will either be spent on something stupid, lost in some harebrained business scheme, or never spent at all).

Teams have basically a flat marginal utility of money. To them, a dollar is a dollar.

As a result, a team can “insure” a player’s long-term financial security by offering him a lower, but guaranteed, amount than he would get in arbitration. It’s win-win.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

word.....

I really hope the A’s and their young stars can continue to work deals like these. All very good points made.

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Feb 8, 2010 5:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Cahill, Bailey, Anderson and even Gonzalez look like future studs. Beane has struck again. A’s win it all in 2011.

Andy Lee for MVP! Hey, that rhymes...

by Ramah71 on Feb 8, 2010 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the enthusiasm!

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Feb 8, 2010 5:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Add to this the threat of injury.....

and the possible loss of everything, and I think players and their agents will continue to take the guaranteed arby and sometimes post arby money. The team gets piece of mind cause they likely save some money long term, and the player gets piece of mind in case he is injured.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 6:40 PM PST up reply actions  

With some notable exceptions

Lincecum and clients of Boras come to mind.

by JetSam on Feb 8, 2010 8:27 PM PST up reply actions  

According to happiness studies

anything past 15,000 dollars has diminishing returns on happiness. I was shocked to read that.

But of course, I have no clue how these studies were done.

"It took eight hours, seven and a half to find the heart"- Earl McCatty

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 8, 2010 9:12 PM PST up reply actions  

That doesn't surprise me at all

$15000 is about what it takes to basically limp along with the bare minimum necessary in terms of housing, clothing, and food. Every dollar up to that point is absolutely essential.

Past that, money starts going to upgrade the items you already have (from liver to London Broil to Applebee’s to Outback Steakhouse to etc etc etc) rather than to getting new necessities. The upgrades are increasingly lower percentage gains over what you’ve already got. The expenditure of money to gain material comforts becomes less and less efficient.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 9:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Please go higher

than outback steakhouse. a little morton’s, maybe? but surely you can do better than outback.

The A's. The SWINGING A's. That's right, the SWINGING A's.

by eastcoasta'sfan on Feb 9, 2010 8:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Wouldn't that fall under "etc"?

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I try to eat at etc all the time...

the et al is terrific!

Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)

by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 10, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The number I've heard is $40,000/year

That’s commonly attributed to Daniel Gilbert. But I happen to have his book (Stumbling on Happiness) right here in front of me, and I can’t find the cite.

I’d really like to pin this down. I’m suspicious of factoids that get repeated all over the place with everyone quoting one another but no clear link to an actual source. Does anyone have a source for this number or any other?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Feb 8, 2010 11:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm currently reading "The Geography of Bliss" by Eric Weiner

He doesn’t actually cite the source. So like I said, I have no clue how these studies were done, nor what population was studied.

I’m not sure that the specific number matters (and probably varies depending on which country/population you are studying), but rather I think the take home point is what PT stated above.

"It took eight hours, seven and a half to find the heart"- Earl McCatty

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 9, 2010 7:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The 2011 option is for $5.5 million

The Padres would be absolutely, batsh*t, crazy, fricking insane to not pick up that option. I mean, I suppose Gonzalez could suffer a career ending injury and they wouldn’t pick up. Maybe.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Feb 8, 2010 1:19 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I thought he is making close to 10 mil this year, no?

Are you sure the option is only for that amount?

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep, I'm sure

Gonzalez is not making close to 10 million this season; he only has a 4.5 million salary.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Feb 8, 2010 7:59 PM PST up reply actions  

That's close to $10 million (compared to my salary)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 8, 2010 8:02 PM PST up reply actions  

That's exactly why Adrian represents a near unprecedented value...

…over the next two years. If not for the bizarre circumstances of the Padre finances and transfer of ownership Adrian would never be traded. A player of Adrians calibre and salary represent a premium value. These opportunities don’t present themsleves everyday folks. If all were asking for is two top level prospects and two decent/fringy players like the ones mentioned above, then it behooves you to consider it carefully.

This premium value is worth at least two top flight prospects. Taylor and Anderson would be the core of any realistic proposal. I know it seems like a lot, but think carefully of what your getting. Its doubtfull that Taylor will provide better offensive production than Adrian will provide. Even if he get’s close, it’s easier to find a decent hitting below average defensive OF like Taylor. So it shouldn’t be such a loss to part with a guy who wasn’t even on your team, what, 6 weeks ago? Brett Anderson is a great pitching prospect but you already have incredible depth in your staff as well as BP. You trade from strength and fill current needs. You need power and a legit complement to the rising star in Carter. You have plenty of complementary pieces to left to build your team around those two.

Adrian could hit 80 home runs and drive in 250 runs and provide gold glove defense while collecting less than 10 million dollars over the next two seasons.

Btw, the Sox were probably offering Bucholtz and Bowden while trying to keep Westy and pawn off Kalish instead. Were holding out for Westy.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 8, 2010 11:52 PM PST up reply actions  

You want Taylor AND Anderson?

Good lord.

And here some of us were thinking Cahill, Gio, Braden, and Weeks were gonna get it done!

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 8, 2010 11:55 PM PST up reply actions  

In baseball terms he's playing for free the next 2 seasons.

If he stays with us for next season, then the asking price will be lowered to Taylor OR Anderson and 2 or 3 of those type prospedcts you were hoping to trade.

The unusual circumstances of his contract represent an unbelievable value. I think it’s fair that the asking price is high.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 AM PST up reply actions  

The asking price should be so high

that any club would be stupid to pull the trigger.

Most.Underpaid.Player.(possibly)Ever.

Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)

by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 9, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Can't say that

Pre-free agency just about everyone was drastically underpaid. Especially stars.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Feb 9, 2010 6:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Why would you trade all those guys?

You would have Adrian and Carter and nothing to build around them. If you trade Anderson and Taylor you can use all those excellent complementary players to form the nucleus of your new ballclub.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 9, 2010 12:08 AM PST up reply actions  

The A's wouldn't trade all those guys.

And the A’s definitely would not trade Taylor and Anderson for Gonzalez.

Oh hey, I guess that means we’re not trading for Gonzalez after all.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 9, 2010 12:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Two guys aren't worth Adrian huh?

As I said, if you wait until next season and are willing to throw in towel on this season then the price will be one or the other plus complmentary pieces.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 9, 2010 12:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Not having Adrian Gonzalez while retaining one

of our best pitchers (if not our best) for the next 5 years is throwing in the towel for this season? He’s good, but no where near that good. And he plays a position where we have prospects that could be as good (on the high end of what ifs) or at least good enough that we wouldn’t miss his talent at a much lower cost.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 9, 2010 7:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Uh, no. No they're not.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Feb 9, 2010 9:12 AM PST up reply actions  

yeahno

Id trade Sweeney, Donaldson, Cahill and Weeks for him and Id never trade Anderson, for anyone, ever.

Id trade Taylor or Cardenas plus a lower prospect for him as well, but Anderson and Taylor is absurd.

by PL78 on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions  

OK

You’re completely delusional.

Taylor and Anderson will provide more value next year than Adrian Gonzalez. They would also be A’s for a much longer period of time.

The sheer breathtaking level of the idiocy that would be required to accept that proposal is beyond words.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 8:10 AM PST up reply actions  

Hmm...

175 IP and a 3.8 WAR in 2009 says that Mr. Anderson isn’t happy with you calling him a prospect anymore.

You talk about unprecedented value… if Gonzalez performas at the exact same level as he did in 2009 his surplus value will actually drop simply because he’ll be making more money in 2010. You’d still be looking at a net gain of $23.65 million from him in 2011 but that’s still $1.65 million less than he produced in 2009. Still, it’s not a drop in value that will cause folks to hate him.

Anderson, on the other hand, is expected to improve upon his 2009 performance. Sticking with the Fangraphs’ estimated 4.4 WAR for 2010 his excess value will rise from $16.7 million to $19.4 million.

So in terms of value, one could argue that 5 years of Anderson goes a long way towards paying for 2 years of Gonzalez. I’ll try to avert a holy war by agreeing that the A’s would need to include a prospect to complete the deal but it would not have to be the #2 guy in their system.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 9, 2010 8:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Allahu Akbar

Sorry, I think it’s too late to avoid the holy war.

In all honesty, I didn’t think the A’s would trade both of those guys. I was trying to shift the center toward my side by asking for the moon. We’re negotiating! I like to throw proposals out there like this so it shakes people loose of the idea they can get him for scraps and detritus.

In reality, a package built around Taylor and Cardenas would be very attractive to the Padres.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 10, 2010 1:04 AM PST up reply actions  

There's no point in negotiating with a mad man

Coming in as an unknown and spouting your Anderson/Taylor jibber-jabber blew your credibility to Hell and gone.

Just saying.

Anyways, Adrian is great but the A’s have other options at 1B… options that in my mind make the trade acquisition for Gonzalez an unnecessary transaction.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 10, 2010 5:43 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree

No point arguing with a mad man or a man who is mad. I am weighing in heavily because were talking about the trade that will make or break the Padres in an Adrian Gonzalez thread.

I think we’ve officially hit dead horse territory here. If Adrian is still with us next off season then we might revisit the idea once the price has fallen into a more affordable arena.

In the meantime can you guys pretend to be interested? I’m trying to drive up the price to the Sox.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 10, 2010 11:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Why the heck?

Would we not pick up a 5.5 million dollar option on Adrian, pray tell? Seems like a decent enough value for a 40 homer gold glove defender, No?

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 8, 2010 11:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Boston can beat this group easily.
Trevor Cahill, Ryan Sweeney, Raj Davis, Jemile Weeks, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, Josh Donaldson, Jake Fox, Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Sean Dolittle, Sam Demel, James Simmons

Just because you threw out a bunch of names doesn’t mean any of those players (with the exception of Sweeney and Barton maybe) are gonna blow the Padres away. Maybe if you added Taylor, Carter, and Cardenas to that list…

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 7, 2010 10:15 PM PST reply actions  

List 14 young players/prospects Boston dont consider "untouchable"

and I will bow to you. If you can decide who their Taylor, Carter and Cardenas are, you will find theres no way in hell they wont get rid of them. There was that rumor they offered Buccholz for Gonzalez straight up, that’s the kind of deal Im thinking the A’s could best by a mile.

by PL78 on Feb 7, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Heh.
List 14 young players/prospects Boston dont consider “untouchable”

Well that’s pretty easy. Eh, I guess everyone from Reddick down would qualify.

If you can decide who their Taylor, Carter and Cardenas are, you will find theres no way in hell they wont get rid of them.

I’m not quite sure I understand this sentence.

here was that rumor they offered Buccholz for Gonzalez straight up, that’s the kind of deal Im thinking the A’s could best by a mile.

Sure…if the A’s included two of TCC (which would beg the point of why trade for Gonzalez in the first place). The Red Sox could easily top that with Buchholz + B prospect + throw ins equal to the value of those A’s players/prospects you listed.

The Red Sox have an extremely deep system along with top end talent. Their system is among the tops in the entire league and they’re definitely rated higher than the A’s right now,

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 7, 2010 11:20 PM PST up reply actions  

They don't need 14 young players that are untouchable

They just need to put up 2 or 3 that would make our best 3 to 5 worth less.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 8, 2010 9:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Let the author have his imagination...

He is including some good names in that list that you aren’t mentioning. Primarily Cahill and Gio and even Weeks and Braden Im sure are still interesting. Dont forget the contract Joe Blanton just got…

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Feb 7, 2010 10:40 PM PST up reply actions  

No.
Primarily Cahill and Gio and even Weeks and Braden Im sure are still interesting.

Two prospects with huge questions, a B/B- prospect, and a league average starter coming off a major foot injury is not an interesting package for Adrian Gonzalez.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 7, 2010 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

You are just unreasonable.

Sweeney + Cahill + Gio + Raj + Weeks + Braden might not get Adrian Gonzalez, but I dont think its that far off at all.

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Feb 8, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Uh, you just added Sweeney + Rajai to the deal...

That’s a far cry from the original Cahill, Gio, Weeks, Braden you proposed.

Propose that Cahill, Gio, Weeks, Braden deal to Gaslamp Ball. I wonder who’ll be called unreasonable…

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 8, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

As per my original comment
He is including some good names in that list that you aren’t mentioning.

You had mentioned Sweeney and Barton already, so I didnt include them. I meant Barton, not Raj on my revised edition, but either way my only point was that it was a list with some quality prospects and that we could get Adrian Gonzalez from that list.

Whereas you said

Just because you threw out a bunch of names doesn’t mean any of those players (with the exception of Sweeney and Barton maybe) are gonna blow the Padres away. Maybe if you added Taylor, Carter, and Cardenas to that list…

Implying that you didnt think the list could. So give me a break…

I agree with PT, it wouldnt be worth it, but Im just saying its more than possible so why would you be so quick to shoot it down?

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Feb 8, 2010 8:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Besides that

My original deal is more than enough probably. Reading this thread and hearing smarter people weigh in only reinforces my position there.

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Feb 8, 2010 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh boy...

If you’re going to argue that a deal is “possible” without regards to realistic limitations of how many players the A’s can give up, then there’s no point in having this discussion at all. Yes, a trade is possible for Gonzalez if the A’s are willing to give up 7+ of those names listed. Heck, offer all 14 if you must. It’d definitely be “possible” then.

And by this logic any trade would be “possible”. We can get Albert Pujols if we just offer our entire farm system for him!

My original point is that any realistic combination of names (and by realistic, the A’s are giving up 3, maybe 4 players) from that list (excluding Sweeney + Barton) is not enough entice the Padres.

My original deal is more than enough probably. Reading this thread and hearing smarter people weigh in only reinforces my position there.

Fans are blind to the fact that when proposing armchair trades, they almost always (unless they’re really good at it) come up with something that gains more for their team than they’re giving up, even when they think they’re being “fair”. But whatevs, I’m sure your Cahill, Gio, Braden, Weeks trade works in MLB 2k9.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 8, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions  

That would be an unbelievably stupid deal for the A's

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank god we're not the DBacks

They traded away Scherzer for what amounted to Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy :/

"It took eight hours, seven and a half to find the heart"- Earl McCatty

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 8, 2010 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Scherzer is better than Edwin Jackson, so I still have no clue why they made that trade

did they want to spend more money? Or did they just want a player who has a good chance of falling off the face of the earth next season?

I mean, remember, this is Edwin Jackson, he of the complete and utter suck just a couple years ago.

by Zonis on Feb 10, 2010 12:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Exactly my point

and Scherzer looks like a stud in the making. I absolutely did not get that move. It pretty much took away whatever rooting interest I had for the DBacks.

"It took eight hours, seven and a half to find the heart"- Earl McCatty

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 10, 2010 5:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Snake Pit asked Josh Byrnes about that.

in interview here.

JB: I think I said on the radio at the time, when we drafted Max and gave him a pretty aggressive bonus, people thought we were nuts – and then, when we traded him, people thought we were nuts. He’s a unique talent. He’s a great make-up guy, got a lot better during his time here and has a unique fastball that makes major-league hitters swing and miss. But the ingredients of being a starting pitcher – the pitch development, the pitch efficiency, the projected durability – were questions that are somewhat unanswered at this point. There’s a chance he can clear these hurdles, there’s a chance he can’t. I don’t think it’s unique to Max: it is hard to be a major-league starter, and go 200+ innings with quality, and do so consistently. Not many guys do that.

He’s being evasive and diplomatic, as GMs always are, so you have to read between the lines, but it sounds to me that there’s something about him they don’t want to specify that leads them to conclude he’s too much of a bust risk.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Feb 10, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Sounds to me

like they think he’s an injury risk. At least moreso than most pitchers. So instead of having one uber stud, they divided that risk among two, lesser pitchers. I’m not sure I agree with this (and yes, I was happy we traded Harden). But I guess they will have the last laugh if he turns into another Prior.

"It took eight hours, seven and a half to find the heart"- Earl McCatty

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 11, 2010 8:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Gonzalez

In order to acquire him, I think we’d have to include either Michael Taylor or Chris Carter along with Ryan Sweeney and Trevor Cahill as some of the bigger names. Then, you can put in names like James Simmons, Josh Donaldson and Jemile Weeks.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Feb 7, 2010 10:18 PM PST reply actions  

Ah, the "need to give up insane quality to get him" post

Have you heard of Johan Santana? He was traded for nothing and was more valuable than A. Gonzalez at the time then Gonzalez is right now. I think you guys are kind of right though, keep in mind SD would move Blanks to 1B so Carter is of no use to them, so Taylor might get added in there, but I dont think its too necessary and a deal can be worked out from that group.

Sweeney, Weeks, Cahill and Gio would all go right into the team and could really turn SD around in an instant. Boston cant offer such quick rewards. All they have to offer is Buccholz and Bard and not much in the way of OFers or position players really.

by PL78 on Feb 7, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Have you ever heard of Dan Haren?

There are lots of different scenarios, we can’t really tell how it’s going to play out unfortunately.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Feb 7, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions  

So what?

Gonzalez, like Haren, is awesome and will be awesome for a long time.

by PL78 on Feb 7, 2010 10:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you missed his point.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 7, 2010 11:22 PM PST up reply actions  

You're dealing with two different GMs with different priorities with two different sets of contracts

with two different sets of how to value their players. They really aren’t comparable.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 8, 2010 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

The Twins knew they would lose him anyways

Therefore, it was either a) let him walk and get nothing or b) get something back. They chose b), naturally. The Padres aren’t yet in that position — they have the option for 2011 as was mentioned above and they’d be on crack if they didn’t pick it up.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Feb 8, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

also, the Twins were pretty much limited to the Mets

while the A’s had an open field. Arizona kept throwing more and more prospects at the deal, but remember at the time there were other clubs going after Haren, and while AZ was heavy in rumors, AN was thinking of different clubs at the time.

by Zonis on Feb 10, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions  

That's what I was going to say as well

Grant Green is probably at least a year and a half away form the bigs…

On the other hand, I’m all for putting together a trade for a guy like A. Gonzalez.

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Feb 8, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

We can't (or unwilling to) afford him

Nuff sad. Move along people, nothing to see here.

by StewCrew on Feb 7, 2010 11:05 PM PST reply actions  

Ummm.... I can't believe I have to give you a "+1" for a comment like this.

Everyone should be saying this. Sure, we’d have to give up draft picks, but I’d rather give up picks than the talent that would be required to acquire Adrian.

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra

by brenarlo on Feb 8, 2010 6:56 AM PST up reply actions  

this. on the other hand, at least adrian gonzalez may be traded, and it would be possible for the a's to go after him if they really wanted to. unlike...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Feb 8, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Well the problem with that is that

he wants a long term contract and Im sure I read somewhere that if SD trades him he’s going to want to sign immediately. You can do what you say and wait around, but the problem there is that it leaves Seattle and Boston free to make offers that are worse than what we can feasibly give up.

my point.

your head.

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 12:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Fine

Then spend the money on someone else…

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the A's have other positions to look at ahead of 1B

So I’ll pass on Adrian Gonzalez, especially for a bunch of money.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Feb 8, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank You!!

Jeeesus!

I'll have a sandwich and a draft(sic). - Bill King (RIP)

by BleedGreen on Feb 8, 2010 8:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Oakland has the lowest payroll in the AL

because they had the lowest attendance in 2009. Actually, they have the lowest attendance of either league. Their ticket prices aren’t high, and they don’t sell nearly as much merchandise as a lot of other teams.

The A’s spend what they have, thus they’re not under pressure by the union or MLB.

by DDroney on Feb 8, 2010 12:02 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

do you know where to find the numbers

for merchandise sales? I believe you that the A’s don’t sell much merchandise, but I was also surprised by how many A’s hats I would see on the south side of Chicago. I don’t think any of those people were A’s fans in particular, but we do have a pretty fetching color scheme.

by colin on Feb 8, 2010 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

hint:

think gang affiliation. Lots of people wear lots of things to denote things that the thing was not produced to mean.

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury

by Future Ed on Feb 8, 2010 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

I’m just wondering if it has a noticeable effect on the A’s merch revenues.

by colin on Feb 8, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Not the way it does for Raiders

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Feb 8, 2010 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think this info is released by MLB.com

Though I gleaned through a few stories that suggested $3.1B worth of team-related merchandise in 2007. Another one suggested that fully half of that was Yankees or Red Sox stuff.

So, the A’s must be the other half, right? ;-)

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Feb 8, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I have got Gonzalez on my sim baseball team

And the coliseum is hurting him to a tune of .221/.357/.321 37 games in.

Jack Cust: Nothing but true results….

by Athletics fan and runner on Feb 8, 2010 6:23 AM PST reply actions  

Which simulator?

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 8, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions  

That's surprising

given that Petco is generally a worse hitters’ park than the Coliseum.

ESPN’s Park Factors has Oakland at 19 and Petco at 30.

by timed exposure on Feb 8, 2010 5:34 PM PST up reply actions  

what if

It is whatifsports.com

And honestly, I think that this is just a fluke poor start to his season. His BAbip is very low at this point.

I have played that game for years and I love it.

I also have mcgwire on the team and he is off to an awesome start to a tune of .396/.480/.844

Jack Cust: Nothing but true results….

by Athletics fan and runner on Feb 8, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions  

LOVE THAT SITE

I was guessing/hoping that would be your answer. I’m surprised how few AN folk seem to know about it. Maybe they do, but I once made a reference to WhatifSports.com in a DLD and not one soul responded.

Glad to here McGwire doing so well. He usually performs so poorly. I try to use him when I can (home team pride!) but the sim dislikes high HR, high BB hitters and I find it tough to squeeze him on to squads.

While I have an audience that may actually understand this next statement, I’ll blab on some. I have a progressive entering the ‘08 season and drafted both Suzuki and Braden onto the team! So I’ll be rooting a little extra for both of ’em.

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 9, 2010 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

And regarding your comment timed exposure

I think the point was that the Coliseum would do Adrian Gonzalez no favors, even though it is indeed friendlier to the bats than Petco.

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 9, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I had braden in a progressive at one point.... He actually did pretty well

These numbers are in a theme league so take them with a grain of salt. about 75% of the league’s players come from the 1987 season.

At this point I only play themes.

What is your site name? I will send you an invite to my next league.

Jack Cust: Nothing but true results….

by Athletics fan and runner on Feb 10, 2010 3:58 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm pretty much a theme player as well

handle is teal_leo

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 11, 2010 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Why your post fails

There is a legitimate conversation to be had in whether or not the A’s should try to acquire Adrian Gonzalez in a trade. (It might be a short conversation, but legitimate nonetheless.)

Mixing in the “conspiracy” angle scuttles the whole thing. First off, the A’s were never mentioned as an object of MLB scrutiny for pocketing revenue sharing money. They spent just under $70 million in payroll last year, there’s simply no basis of comparison between the spending habits of the A’s vs. the Marlins.

But more importantly, even if this conspiracy did exist and the A’s were a target the plan to trade for Adrian Gonzalez would do little to quiet the sceptics. Adrian is going to make $10.25 million over the next two seasons, his contract is simply too team friendly to “prove” that the A’s are willing to spend money.

The only way trading for Gonzalez works to kill the conspiracvy theorists is if the A’s acquire him and promptly tear up the two remaining years of his contract and sign him to a massive extension that at minimum triples the amount of money he was already looking to make over the next two seasons.

And that would raise the whole idea (the trade + extension) to a level of batshit stupidity that we don’t normally associate with the Oakland A’s or really, any well-run organization.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 8:06 AM PST reply actions   4 recs

agree

Maybe I’m biased, but it seems obvious to me that the A’s aren’t trying to just pocket revenue sharing money. As people have pointed out above, Oakland has dismal attendance, so they don’t have a lot of money to work with. But I never get the idea that they are just trying to dump payroll and giving up on playing competitive baseball. Beane is very careful with how he spends his money, but it always seems to me that there is a fairly clear budget and he is looking to spend all of it.

by colin on Feb 8, 2010 8:40 AM PST up reply actions  

The only way trading for Gonzalez works to kill the conspiracvy theorists is if the A’s acquire him and promptly tear up the two remaining years of his contract and sign him to a massive extension that at minimum triples the amount of money he was already looking to make over the next two seasons.

That’s what Im saying. And its hardly “batshit stupid” to sign an elite player to a long term contract. This isnt the Royals signing Kendall or Farnsworth, this is an elite player.

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions  

And that is batshit stupid

You can trade Cahill+ for two years o’ Adrian at $10 million total.

Or

Trade Cahill+ for Adrian at $30 million over the next 2 years plus $60 million over another 4 years. For 2010-2011 you’re getting the same player, only you’re spending an extra $20 million for the priviledge of paying him another $60 million… all at a position that you’ve identified as being an organizational strength for the A’s.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

well yeah its an area where theres pretty good prospects

but are any of them going to have 5+ WARs anytime soon? No.

Again my point is that with revenue sharing, we are going to have to sign SOMEONE to get MLB off our backs. AG makes sense as he’s the most available elite player.

Is it all possible to set “posting tone” as this clearly isnt meant to be taken as serious as the board police are making it.

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

There is no proof

MLB got stern with Florida for the obvious reasons. Shortly after the Florida story broke Beane made a comment that MLB never approached the A’s with the same concerns.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Im flagging this

youve done nothing but talk shit this entire thread, get off my nuts and chill out already.

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

In fairness

After the other thread, he may have a short fuse on things that seem a bit unfounded. Your ideal isn’t nearly as out there, but it’s unfortunately wrong since Beane himself has been quoted as saying otherwise.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 8, 2010 7:33 PM PST up reply actions  

uhh

the totally out of character long term contract offers to middle of the road vets?
getting in the chapman mix so hard we almost got him?
overpaying for a FA (Sheets)?
the fact that the saying “the A’s have the lowest payroll in the AL” is true?
the fact that MLB already did inquire with the Marlins about it, and there were rumors they asked oakland too?

My reasoning is pretty much laid out there in the 1st sentence of the post, there’s no need to aggressively go after me. Im an open minded guy who loves to think outside the box, I’m not saying “I AM RIGHT 100% OF THE TIME AND YOU CANT ARGUE ME”, which is the vibe I get from your posts because you act like you are somehow getting off from proving me “wrong”. Dont like the post? Then either say why and make your peace and leave (unless someone replies to you). Or you could always, um, ignore things you dont agree with.

Who has time to argue about trivial things nowdays anyway???

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Whatever you say, guy

It’s just come off that you’re the one trying to push a conspiracy theory nobody else has, and it looks especially silly when Beane himself has said different.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Feb 8, 2010 8:01 PM PST up reply actions  

He's not your guy, buddy.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Feb 10, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

There's another explanation for that behavior:

The A’s had some money to spend on improving their baseball team, and (remarkably enough) decided to spend some money to improve their baseball team.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 8:47 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Why do people never accept the most obvious, clearest explanation for why things happen?

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 8, 2010 8:51 PM PST up reply actions  

amazingly

there are innumerable conspiracies every day, criminal and otherwise.

by JetSam on Feb 9, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

what sucks about it all

is that conspiracies do exist,

but all the cynicism against conspiracies born from the abundance of utterly stupid conspiracy theories ends up providing perfect cover for the conspiracies that actually do exist.

Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)

by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 9, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions  

what rumors?

It seems the crux of your argument is that MLB has spoken to the A’s about spending money. There was a recent story that went into detail explaining why that is false.

Something central to your argument is hardly trivial… no? I mean accepting that we are talking about professional sports and everything about professional sports is trivial to some degree.

by jeffro on Feb 9, 2010 4:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Eh

Attacks on someone’s credibility based on earlier posts are not the same thing as unprovoked personal attacks, and are valid.

Flashfire’s comment comes pretty close to the line because he doesn’t really back it up with hard evidence, but I vote no flag.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 8:46 PM PST up reply actions  

there are other guys to sign.

Not to mention your whole premise is that MLB is on our nuts. I don’t believe that has been shown to be the case.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Feb 8, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Again... MLB hasn't said shit to the A's about their payroll

Yes, the A’s are looking at no big money contracts in 2011. But they’re also looking at arbitration cases for Sweeney, Suzuki, Braden, Davis and Kouzmanoff. 2012 could see Bailey, Anderson, Gio, Blevins, Cahill, Outman and Barton.

Florida got into trouble because SOP for them was to trade just about any player not named Hanley that was about to make any kind of money. Let’s look at some numbers.

Florida’s Payroll/Oakland’s Payroll (in millions)

2009: $36.8/$62.3
2008: $21.8/$48.0
2007: $30.5/$79.3
2006: $15.0/$62.2

It is thought that the annual revenue sharing pay-out is ~$35 million. In 3 of the last 4 years the Marlins have spent less than that on payroll. The A’s have always spent substantially more than $35 million on payroll. Unless the revenue sharing figures are way higher than $35 million there is no fiscal basis to think that MLB is unhappy with the A’s payroll spending.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

15 million in 2006??? The Marlins are so cheap its not funny.

Andy Lee for MVP! Hey, that rhymes...

by Ramah71 on Feb 8, 2010 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Given the conversation.....

I think the post is a success, just that you may disagree with the author grover. I do too by the way……

But also, I recognize that the A’s were not mentioned in the recently released union grip memo, but there was still a lot of talk that they could have been, and might be in the future.

I also think this is why Sheets got the money he did, at least part of the reason, given his injury history and risk.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 6:45 PM PST up reply actions  

If we're trading for big stars before they hit free agency...

then I pick Jose Reyes. I don’t think the Mets will be that close to winning the NL East. He would solve a long-term problem (if he can be signed right away).

I’m with PT and others who have suggested instead of giving up talent, let’s just give up draft picks and sign that big contract (IF the A’s are being forced to sign a big contract).

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra

by brenarlo on Feb 8, 2010 11:21 AM PST reply actions  

Reyes has a contract worth around 5-6 million a year that expires next year, which I don’t like. I’d mich rather just try to sign him as an FA next year. Matt Cain will also be a free agent next year, as will Adrian Gonzalez. All 3 of these guys can be the cornerstone of the A’s, or basically what Matt holliday was supposed to do.

Andy Lee for MVP! Hey, that rhymes...

by Ramah71 on Feb 8, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't get the whole "trade for A. Gonzalez / Hanley Ramirez" line of thinking

Trade several good prospects for a really, really good player? After spending 2 seasons suffering the rebuilding pains of doing exactly the opposite? For what — to get back to where we were when we had Haren and just say, “We wasted 2 seasons going in a big circle?”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 8, 2010 4:49 PM PST reply actions   5 recs

Basically you gut the farm system when you feel you're right on the verge of winning it all and...

…want or need someone else to get you to the top. That’s what they tried doing in the early part of the 2000s and while it put them in positions to win in the playoffs, they didn’t get the job done.

The effect of that was that once the window closed they were left with a farm system that was short on talent. They had to rebuild it. For all intents and purposes they’ve done this now but it’s taken a few years to get there. However, the MLB team is not QUITE ready to be in contention enough to really have it make sense for them to do a major trade full of prospects for a top-level player.

In a couple of years, we’ll probably be talking about that. By then, someone like Gonzalez could just be signed instead of trading for him now, AND the A’s would have the ability to use some of those prospects as trading chips for someone ELSE.

They’re going to have options – and good ones – if they play it right. No need to get ahead of themselves right now.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Feb 8, 2010 5:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Except we are so overflowing with prospects and they all cant play here.

Getting an elite player with leftover unusable prospects is the REWARD for doing a good job rebuilding.

by PL78 on Feb 8, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Leftover, unusable prospects?

I follow the A’s farm system more diligently than just about anyone on AN and I don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Me neither

Having two really promising prospects at a given position usually yields 0-1 big league players.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 8, 2010 7:25 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

So far

No one’s being blocked from the MLB level. Until then, there’s no leftovers.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 8, 2010 7:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Just the stretch the legs a bit...

Lets play with PL78’s premise.

Cahill, Gio, Sweeney and weeks head to SD for Adrian Gonzalez.

So AG is the new 1B, who signs an extension that runs 2011-2015.

The 2010 rotation is Sheets, Duke, Braden (now with feeling in all 10 toes!) and Anderson. I’m going to go good news/bad news on the 5th spot. It’s decided that Mazzaro needs work on his change-up (or maybe he just gets real bad gas) and won’t pitch for Oakland until July, but after that he’ll be a rotation mainstay through 2015.

Whatever happens in 2010 happens.

Come 2011, we’ve still got AG at 1B, Kouz at 3B, someone at SS but Ellis is done. I’m gifting us all by saying that Carter is the new LF and Taylor is in RF, both getting the call mid-2010 and proving they’ve got what it takes to play in the Show. Davis/Crisp in CF. The rotation has Anderson, Mazzaro and Braden.

That’s two holes in the rotation and a job opening at 2B. Cardenas heads into 2010 as a Top 10 prospect in the rankings of all 3 main minor league evaluators: JS, BA and BP. So he gets the nod at 2B for now. How do we fill out the rotation? Outman will be back from TJ but who knows how well his stuff/command will return. There’s a lot of attrition in the prospect ranks and since I’ve been so nice about Mazzaro, Taylor, Carter and Cardenas I’m calling bust on Simmons, Mortensen and Godfrey.

AA Midland will likely open the season with Ross, Capra, Hornbeck, Leon and Figueroa in the rotation. Capra, Hornbeck and Figueroa have combined for one appearance above A-ball thus far. Leon has spent most of his pro career as a RP and Ross is a high risk/high reward type. You are now asking for two of these players to excel and master AA and AAA so they’ll be ready to fill the (at minimum) two rotation holes in Oakland. That’s possible (essentially we’re asking for a 40% success rate) but we’re needing a little luck to break our way for it to happen. If it doesn’t happen, if only one guy emerges by the end of 2010 then the A’s are in a position were they must look outside the organization to find starting pitching.

At which point we can call bullshit to the terms “leftover” and “unusable” prospects.

What about the position prospects? After Taylor, Carter and Cardenas you’ve got Brown (high bust potential but high reward as well) Doolittle (and if he’s lost any speed after the knee injury he’ll need to go back to the now permanently blocked 1B) and then no one else in the upper minors who’ll make a Top 20 prospects list. Grant Green will start the year in High-A and he’s a Top 5 prospect. Behind him? Will they/won’t theys like Coleman, Christian, Ladendorf and Leyja.

Basically, the only way the A’s can have prospects to spare for Adrian Gonzalez is if every high ranking prospect the A’s currently have pans out. That’s just not a likely scenario.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 8, 2010 9:11 PM PST up reply actions   5 recs

They have free agents now

Why is it so unheard of to be in the position of looking outside the organization to fill starting pitching needs? That makes you a major league baseball team. We just signed John Garland for 5 million dollars and you just signed Sheets for 9 million. You don’t think these values will present themselves this and every year until the day we die? And why can’t you retain Duke? I have the feeling he’d be amenable to a long term deal.

I think your underestimating the offensive potential a duo of Carter and Adrian represent. With complementary players like the ones mentioned above and Rajai, Cardenas, Kouzmanoff, your looking at a very nice lineup.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 9, 2010 12:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Long term deals for pitchers are extremely risky

And gambling year-to-year that you actually have a full team by trying to entice a new pitcher to join your team at a reduced rate is risky at best and ignores the reason why he’s giving you a reduced rate (i.e. he’s a huge injury risk). And what do you gain by putting yourself in this sort of ridiculous position, one great player while giving up several good players.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Feb 9, 2010 7:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Please go away

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 8:14 AM PST up reply actions  

easy there, pardner...

He didn’t say anything offensive, other than provide a swiss cheese argument…

Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)

by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 9, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

No, but

I’ll stop responding to your posts if you like. I assure you it’s nothing to me.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 10, 2010 12:23 AM PST up reply actions  

It's really more the "I have to suffer through reading your trolling" that bothers me

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 10, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Paul

I’m not trolling, and I’m only posting so much because were talking about a trade that will make or break the Padres for the next 5 years in an Adrian Gonzalez thread.

I understand why it seems like idiocy to you to trade minor league talent for established veterans. But Adrians an amazing talent at a bargain contract and we have every right to ask for the moon. I understand that a team like the A’s are not in a postion to deal the prospects necessary to land him as a team like the Sox would be. They have the ability to fill holes with money whereas teams like the A’s and Padres don’t.

As I said in another post, now is probably not the time for the A’s and Padres to talk about Adrian. After next season when the price has fallen considerably it might be time to revisit the idea.

You’ll be happy to know I’m done posting on the subject.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 10, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

What makes a guy a trade target

is not whether he’s good or bad, but whether he would have more value for the team proposed to acquire him than he has for the team giving him up (or other teams that might also trade for him).

Yes, Adrian Gonzalez is a good player with a great contract, but there’s no reason to think that contract is more valuable to the A’s than it is to the Padres or the Red Sox or any other team. Therefore, there is no reason for the A’s to make a fair trade for him

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Feb 10, 2010 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Spot on as usual iglew.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Feb 10, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Hold your horses there buddy

That package is kind of crazy, my original premise is that we have to provide players that are:

a) better than the 2 draft picks they will get from letting him walk as a FA
b) better than any package Boston or Seattle (or mystery team) can put together.

I dont think Gio AND Cahill go in a deal, we are going to need one of them at least, and if its Gio, then only 2 more prospects are going. Sub out Gio for Buck and you have a more realistic deal, when I say “leftover” prospects thats who Im talking about. Also, we have Cardenas, Sogard and Weeks at 2B (plus a couple others who will have to switch to 2B). The odds of Cardenas panning out are extremely high, so we dont need this insane depth if it comes at the price of an elite player.

The average ANer has been so bogged down in the last 3 years its like you have forgotten this is how teams make the next step: you fill out your team first, then you can go grab the elite player with who you have left over. The odds of an 09 Dbax are pretty low if you do this right.

Its pretty mind boggling that a call to trade for a 5+ WAR player with scraps is considered “insane” around here, I guess I just dont value farm system depth as much as you, I also believe in Beane more than many of you. That guy is real good at finding usable players that no one wants, he’s the best guy ever to have in a “worse comes to worse” scenario as outlined above.

by PL78 on Feb 9, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions  

... and the A's are nowhere close to "filling out their team"

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

That package is kind of crazy? NO SHIT!

Yet your original post said a package of 3-5 of a group of players which included all 4 names I mentioned could be sent to SD. also, I could link a post on this thread where you specifically list all four of those players as being in the deal and you don’t say one negative word against the package… but that seems petty.

So make up your fucking mind. Or better yet, drop the subject.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 9, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the package is crazy

because I think its not nearly enough for the Padres to accept-they’d get more elsewhere.

by Zonis on Feb 10, 2010 12:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Any realistic trade

Would have to include at least one of Anderson, Taylor or Cahill. I’m just saying.

Obviously passions for minor league talent run deep for A’s fans. It is the A’s that revolutionized how scouting for talent was done and heralded the statistical era of baseball.

Actually, I agree that trading minor leaguers for veteran stars is bad as a general philosophy. However, there are the outliers and exceptions. I think Adrian is that type of player you make room for, regardless of your philosophy on the subject. If you could get Albert Pujols for Taylor and Carter, would you do it? Is there anyone you would do it for? Just curious.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 10, 2010 12:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Where?

Boston’s already balked and the Rangers (who have a great farm system) don’t have the need.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 10, 2010 5:45 AM PST up reply actions  

This should have 15 recs

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions  

If having 2 plus prospects per position usually equal 0-1 major league players...

What happens If people figure out Carter can’t recognize or hit breaking stuff and Taylor flops?

The value of Adrian is he represents a known quantity and a near guaranteed return on the investment.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Feb 9, 2010 12:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Why not trade prospects?

Building young players doesnt mean you have to play all of em, they’re assets that you can use however you want.

Like what the Celtics did by trading all their young players for KG.

by DiNatale on Feb 9, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Baseball is not basketball

Do not make analogies to the NBA. In the NBA one dominant player— a Garnett type— can literally take a team to the playoffs by himself. That will never happen in baseball, where attaching a Hall of Fame talent to an otherwise average team only puts them on the outer fringe of playoff contention (and let’s not even talk about a Hall of Fame talent attached to a replacement-level team…).

The NBA is set up in such a way that it is very difficult for a team to trade veterans for prospects and come out ahead. MLB is set up in such a way that the precise opposite is true.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Can we just...

trade for Hairston again, then package him with Kouz and Patterson for Gonzalez and call it a day? :X

"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."

"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff

by ST on Feb 8, 2010 7:56 PM PST reply actions  

We could just

redirect Gonzalez’ flight to Oakland and say that these green and white jerseys are just the Padres’ new colors. That has a higher chance of happening than trading for/signing him and it’ll cost less.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Feb 8, 2010 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

You haven't checked Southwest lately, have you?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 8, 2010 8:17 PM PST up reply actions  

We should also inform him

that in Oakland, he doesn’t have to wear a camo jersey.

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 9, 2010 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I will recommend this.

These might be the ugliest jerseys in professional sports.

by Opus Youngblood on Feb 9, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

THEN....

We can flip Gonzalez back to the Padres for more prospects!

Those Padres will never know what hit them…

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 8, 2010 8:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I hear Sean Gallagher is quite promising.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 8, 2010 8:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I could see this happening

if the Padres are contracted before Gonzalez hits FA and for some reason the A’s have the first pick from their roster. Otherwise it doesn’t fit with a 3 year plan. Gonzalez will be gone, and the A’s out a few of their building blocks.

by write_said_fred on Feb 8, 2010 10:25 PM PST reply actions  

`

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Feb 9, 2010 1:00 AM PST reply actions  

Can we somehow

include Chavez in the Gonzales deal? I’m sure he’d be happy to return home and Pad fans would be happy to have the come-back player of the year. Let Beane figure out how to sell that one..

You're going to hollywood!

by sf drift king on Feb 9, 2010 2:29 AM PST reply actions  

Wow, after reading this whole thread it seems like almost everyone misread an argument somewhere along the way

I don’t post a whole lot on AN. I lurk around and learn about A’s baseball and get a kick out of the drama side of things. This thread’s provided plenty of the latter. I wanted to step in because in this instance I believe most of the nasty comments are unfounded. When you have a solid argument and rip into someone, that’s one thing. But from my vantage as a lurker, this time all of you who ripped into this post are all at least partially in the wrong. There are arguments you missed and points you misinterpreted. Because of that you’re the ones on the moral low ground (most of the time, no-one takes a moral stance at all, which is awesome). Here’s my outside look at the three main points of the original post and the reasons they’ve been unjustly attacked.

1) The conspiracy theory.
This one is admittedly far fetched and the least deserving of defense. MLB cracked down on Florida because their spending was so low it was off the charts. The side by side list of recent Oakland and Florida payrolls is the clearest of the many posts that proved that point. Case closed.

Still, we’re talking conspiracy, and you have to allow for some stretching of the imagination. Say MLB didn’t stop at Florida (this is the only truly crazy proposition in PL’s original post). But just for kicks, let’s say MLB wants to look beyond Florida and go after other clubs. Who would be next in line? Oakland is a likely target. We’re talking conspiracy, so you certainly can’t trust the front office. Beane’s denial means nothing (duh, he’s IN ON IT). Is pressure from MLB HQ a quite silly explanation of Beane’s unusual offseason? Yes it is, but one can’t deny that there were some odd moves this winter. Why not have some fun and talk about grassy knoll scenarios?

2) The trade proposal.
Quite a few posters have gone after the idea of a huge talent package (Cahill-Sweeney-Gio, Anderson-Taylor) in exchange for Gonzalez. Fair enough, but PL78 has NOT ONCE proposed an exact deal. It’s a smart move. He was looking for a discussion on the general feasibility of a trade, and only ever mentions a pool of names from which a deal could be constructed. That’s not the same as proposing to trade all the top names in that pool.
Here’s an example of misinterpretation. One of PL78’s quotes was:

Sweeney, Weeks, Cahill and Gio would all go right into the [Padres]

A superficial read implies that this is the package being offered for Gonzalez. But that’s not what it actually says. The point being made is that ANY (not all) of those players would make for sensible additions to the Padres, maybe even make the 2010 San Diego MLB roster (a separate debate).

All PL78 has done is name some potentially movable players and it is everyone else who framed their own ridiculous trades and then tore each other to shreds about it. You all want to talk specific packages, fine. But make sure a poster actually proposed a deal before you slam him on it.

3) The Adrian Gonzalez debate.
This has caused the most unprovoked assault of the whole thread. Gonzalez has been rumored as available. The A’s are a likely bet to contend in 2011. Gonzalez could help the A’s contend in 2011. Does anyone have a problem with the three points I just made?

To be fair, quite a few people acknowledged that Gonzalez is not an absurd trade target. They outlined why he’s still not a great trade target (contract expires at the latest in 2011, unlikely to sign extension with Oakland, ect.). That all was a well-though out debate and is why I continue to come to AN. But for those who attacked the whole notion of a trade, I must say from my vantage point you have no reason to call it ridiculous.

Well, this ends my first “attack post” on AN. Hopefully I won’t be shot down in flames.

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack

by GoA's on Feb 9, 2010 3:21 PM PST reply actions  

...

You’ve been shot down in flames.

Hey Al, just go away, baby.

by doctorK on Feb 9, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd like to address your second point

Misinterpretation?

Youre’ right, of course, PL78’s comment that you quote does not expressly say that that is his suggested trade package. However, it is clear that he took the idea and commented on it without making any negative remark about the group. Allow me to block quote PL78:

Here’s a list of our players that I wouldnt mind trading 3 to 5 of them for AG and then signing him to a long-term deal, thus getting MLB off our backs and letting Beane still work his natural style of finding undervalued players:

Trevor Cahill, Ryan Sweeney, Raj Davis, Jemile Weeks, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, Josh Donaldson, Jake Fox, Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Sean Dolittle, Sam Demel, James Simmons.

So PL78 expressed a willingness to trade 3-5 players from a list that included the same 4 players that appear in the comment you quote. At no point in his original post, nor during the first time the four players were mentioned in combination, did PL78 raise any objection or limit who could be paired in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. There was no misinterpretation… PL78 left the door wide open as to the possible combination of players that could be involved in a trade for Gonzalez.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Feb 9, 2010 4:13 PM PST up reply actions  

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