A's Chances
by Mikey6rocker on Feb 7, 2010 6:08 PM PST
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PrintAfter reviewing the entire roster for every team in the AL west it looks like we don't stand a chance at the playoffs. I am a die hard A's fan so I am going to stay positive. I think we will do better than last year and even break ,500, my prediction is 82-80, but competing against the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers for a playoff spot looks next to impossible.
When I broke it down, no team has bad pitching, not even mediocre. Every team in the AL West has good pitching. Maybe the A's have a little better than others but not by much. As for hitting, A's rank last, the Angels haven't changed much, and the Mariners and Rangers look to be better than they have been the past few years.
Unless Beane makes some huge aquisitions, it seems like 2011 season might be only a minor upgrade from this upcoming 2010 season. I will never loose faith in the A's and they will always be my team, but things are moving much too slowly. I feel like beane needs to start making normal transactions, not his own little game of giving the little guys a shot. When the little guys can hit over .275 with 20+ HRs that is when they should get a shot.
Instead of spending 10 mil getting a few guys who have "great defense" skills, why dont we spend that getting 2 guys who can hit the ball and hit it good.
So as it looks right now, the A's can break .500 this season but I don't see us doing any better than 3rd place in AL West. If someone has some news or information to comfort me, please do so...I need it.
- UPDATE:
Here are a list of players that will most likely do very well in 2010:
Mariners: C: N/A 1B: Garko, Kotchman 2B: Lopez 3B: Figgins SS: N/A OF: Bradley, Gutierrez, Ichiro PITCHERS- Bedard, Fister, Hernandez, Kelley, League, Lee, Lowe, Snell, White -The A's definitely have a better bullpen, but I would say SP is the same. Mariners definitely have a better offense. Rangers: C: N/A 1B: N/A 2B: Kinsler 3B: Young SS: Andrus OF: Cruz, Hamilton, Murphy DH: Guerrero PITCHERS: Feldman, Francisco, Harden, Mathis, O'Day, Oliver, Wilson -The A's have better pitching overall. But god look at the Rangers offense. Just look at their outfield alone, now throw in Guerrero, Kinsler, and Young. Thats ridiculous. Angels: C: Napoli 1B: Morales 2B: Izturis, Kendrick 3B: N/A SS: Aybar, OF: Abreu, Hunter, Rivera DH: Matsui PITHCERS: Fuentes, Kazmir, Pineiro, Saunders, Shields, Stokes, Weaver -Their pitching is average. Nothing special. But they make up for it with a dynamite offense. Not a single starter on their team (except for 3B maybe) bats under .270. So lets break it down by position. Stats are BA, OPS, HRs. C: Suzuki (.274, .734, 15) VS. Napoli(LAA: .272, .842, 20) 1B: Barton (.269, .784, 3) VS. Garko (SEA: .268, .765, 13) Kotchman (SEA: .268, .721, 7) Morales (LAA: .306, .924, 34) 2B: Ellis (.263, .708, 10) VS. Lopez (SEA: .272, .766, 25) Kinsler (TEX: .253, .814, 31) Izturis (LAA: .300, .794, 8) Kendrick (LAA: .291, .778, 10) 3B: Kouzmanoff (.255, .722, 18) VS. Figgins (SEA: .298, .789, 5) Young (TEX: .322, .892, 22) SS: Pennington (.279, .760, 4) VS. Andrus (TEX: .267, .702, 6) Aybar (LAA: .312, .776, 5) DH: Cust (.240, .773, 25) Buck (.219, .620, 3) VS. Guerrero (TEX: .295, .794, 15) Matsui (LAA: .274, .876, 28) OF: Crisp (.228, .714, 3) Davis (.305, .784, 3) Sweeney (.293, .755, 6) VS. Bradley (SEA: .257, .775, 12) Guttierez (SEA: .283, .764, 18) Ichiro (SEA: .352, .851, 11) Cruz (TEX: .260, .856, 33) Hamilton (TEX: .268, .741, 10) Murphy (TEX: .269, .785, 17) Abreu (LAA: .293, .824, 15) Hunter (LAA: .299, .873, 22) Rivera (LAA: .287, .810, 25) Summary: Our bullpen is amazing, the best in our division. All 4 teams have similar starting pitching, a couple Aces, and then some guys with great potential. As for offense, I see we can maybe compete in the SS and OF categories, as for every other position, we are blown out of the water.
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So you're tied with the fanpost?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
go to him now
he calls you
you can’t refuse
by WhiteElephants on Feb 7, 2010 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
I got something.....
for the author to chew on……
What about the possible internal upgrades of Carter and Taylor to the A’s 2011 squad? Its hard to call those guys little and both have 20+ HR potential. Then add Cardenas and maybe Brown, and all of a sudden 2011 looks like the start of something special.
Be comforted bro, barring injuries, better times are ahead.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:21 PM PST up reply actions
mikey who would you say is the favorite now? the mariners?
if so, they dont have an element to their team that i would say is truely superior to ours
Personally, I say Angels
Still a solid team, post Lackey/Figgins/Vlad.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree...
And I’m one to say a crown must be taken rather than given. Until the other 3 teams prove otherwise, the Angels are my favorite to win the division in 2010.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
does this mean you always predict the previous year's winners to repeat?
by scatterbrian on Feb 8, 2010 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
No....
But when it comes to the Angels, recent history suggests its a smart bet.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
+1
they still have solid pitching and a well balanced lineup despite their offseason departures.
You're going to hollywood!
by sf drift king on Feb 9, 2010 2:24 AM PST up reply actions
To be honest, I don't know.
This year the AL West will be different than it was in the last decade. It seems like in the last 10 years generally speaking the A’s and the Angels have been dominating. This year I think Texas, Seattle and Anaheim are all fairly even and ready to compete with one another. Seattle has the best pitching out of those three, while the Angels have the best bats. Texas has its ups and downs in both categories. Check out the rosters for yourself, you’ll see some surprises that you may have forgot about.
by Mikey6rocker on Feb 8, 2010 12:44 AM PST up reply actions
they're getting old man
they have nice offense, but bad bullpen and worst pitching than ours. We have a better defense too
On 2011
We look to have a very different team come 2011, especially on offense.
We stand to have a very good shot at writing in Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Adrian Cardenas and Sean Doolittle into the 2011 lineup (as well as the 2nd half 2010 lineup as a matter of fact).
Add to that the possibility of Jemile Weeks, Corey Brown, and possibly Grant Greene if he moves very fast through the system (however unlikely).
That would give us a potential 2011 lineup looking like;
C1 Kurt Suzuki
1B Sean Doolittle
2B Adrian Cardenas
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS Cliff Pennington
LF Chris Carter
RF Michael Taylor
CF Ryan Sweeney
DH FA DH Fodder or Jack Cust or whomever
I think it's too early to project first base.
It will depend on Barton and Doolittle’s respective 2010 seasons, and Carter’s ability to play the outfield (still just a concept). In any case, the offense will definitely improve!
I thought Doolittle was transfered to playing mostly OF, no?
Also Zonis, if I may offer a tweak to your possible plan…….
C1 Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Adrian Cardenas
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS Cliff Pennington/Grant Green
LF Michael Taylor
RF Sean Doolittle/Corey Brown
CF Ryan Sweeney
DH Chris Carter
UT IF/OF Weeks
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:27 PM PST up reply actions
Oh yeah, and I'm still skeptical about Pennington.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we dipped into the free agent pool next year.
Or do the A's use Pennington to......
buy time in waiting for Green/Ladendorf
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:28 PM PST up reply actions
Does anyone seriously project Ladendorf
to be better than Pennington? I mean, sure, he might be good. But so might Pennington.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Whatever he is projected as.....
Im gonna give the kid a chance till proven otherwise.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 1:07 AM PST up reply actions
That's how I feel about Pennington.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Acne?
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Backne
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Hives?
Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)
by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 9, 2010 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
Zonis: Random shout out
Hey man, I enjoyed reading the articles on Toothball and look forward to more content.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
2011 DH: Jake Fox
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd put some real money (which for me is like five bucks)
on Doolittle never, ever taking a job from Barton (Barton being traded or getting expensive doesn’t count). And Barton will have a much better career. I have no doubt about either of those two things.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Feb 9, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty unfair bet
I mean, any player who has played in the majors for more than like a month, and hasn’t utterly sucked there, is far more likely to have a worthwhile career than just about anyone who hasn’t. At any given time, there are probably only about 5-10 minor leaguers whose 50th percentile projection has them providing more than 2 WAR a season.
That being said, I think Doolittle has at least a decent shot at surpassing Barton— 25%? That would be 3 to 1 odds. I’d bet that.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
I like our chances
The Rangers pitching is terrible, and I mean TERRIBLE, I like Harden but he aint an ace.
The Mariners are basically the same team we are, except our pen is better
I think the Angels are the team to beat again but they arent that strong. This is the worst team they have put out in a while
Really? If healthy.....
harden is not ace material? Coulda fooled me……
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 7, 2010 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
He was
He was one the best young pitchers in best baseball. But then he kept breaking his arm his numbers with the cubs last year are nothing special. Wasnt his fastball down to 93 – 91 and he still didnt pitch 150 innings. So yea a power pitcher who loses 5mph on his fastball and doesnt make more that 75% of his starts isnt an ace.
Time will tell.......
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 1:05 AM PST up reply actions
I think we've all exhausted our "if healthy" Harden predictions
relying on him to be healthy isn’t realistic
by scatterbrian on Feb 8, 2010 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
this is true too.....
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 8, 2010 6:48 PM PST up reply actions
He was healthy with the Cubs last year
All those 5 inning starts = not an ace.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Feb 9, 2010 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
In all respects
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I'll break it down for you.
@Sir Realist
I strongly advise you to look at the rosters before you make a claim like that.
Here are a list of players that will most likely do very well in 2010:
Mariners:
C: N/A
1B: Garko, Kotchman
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: N/A
OF: Bradley, Gutierrez, Ichiro
PITCHERS- Bedard, Fister, Hernandez, Kelley, League, Lee, Lowe, Snell, White
-The A’s definitely have a better bullpen, but I would say SP is the same. Mariners definitely have a better offense.
Rangers:
C: N/A
1B: N/A
2B: Kinsler
3B: Young
SS: Andrus
OF: Cruz, Hamilton, Murphy
DH: Guerrero
PITCHERS: Feldman, Francisco, Harden, Mathis, O’Day, Oliver, Wilson
-The A’s have better pitching overall. But god look at the Rangers offense. Just look at their outfield alone, now throw in Guerrero, Kinsler, and Young. Thats ridiculous.
Angels:
C: Napoli
1B: Morales
2B: Izturis, Kendrick
3B: N/A
SS: Aybar,
OF: Abreu, Hunter, Rivera
DH: Matsui
PITHCERS: Fuentes, Kazmir, Pineiro, Saunders, Shields, Stokes, Weaver
-Their pitching is average. Nothing special. But they make up for it with a dynamite offense. Not a single starter on their team (except for 3B maybe) bats under .270.
So lets break it down by position. Stats are BA, OPS, HRs.
C: Suzuki (.274, .734, 15) VS. Napoli(LAA: .272, .842, 20)
1B: Barton (.269, .784, 3) VS. Garko (SEA: .268, .765, 13) Kotchman (SEA: .268, .721, 7) Morales (LAA: .306, .924, 34)
2B: Ellis (.263, .708, 10) VS. Lopez (SEA: .272, .766, 25) Kinsler (TEX: .253, .814, 31) Izturis (LAA: .300, .794, 8) Kendrick (LAA: .291, .778, 10)
3B: Kouzmanoff (.255, .722, 18) VS. Figgins (SEA: .298, .789, 5) Young (TEX: .322, .892, 22)
SS: Pennington (.279, .760, 4) VS. Andrus (TEX: .267, .702, 6) Aybar (LAA: .312, .776, 5)
DH: Cust (.240, .773, 25) Buck (.219, .620, 3) VS. Guerrero (TEX: .295, .794, 15) Matsui (LAA: .274, .876, 28)
OF: Crisp (.228, .714, 3) Davis (.305, .784, 3) Sweeney (.293, .755, 6) VS. Bradley (SEA: .257, .775, 12) Guttierez (SEA: .283, .764, 18) Ichiro (SEA: .352, .851, 11) Cruz (TEX: .260, .856, 33) Hamilton (TEX: .268, .741, 10) Murphy (TEX: .269, .785, 17) Abreu (LAA: .293, .824, 15) Hunter (LAA: .299, .873, 22) Rivera (LAA: .287, .810, 25)
Summary: Our bullpen is amazing, the best in our division. All 4 teams have similar starting pitching, a couple Aces, and then some guys with great potential. As for offense, I see we can maybe compete in the SS and OF categories, as for every other position, we are blown out of the water.
this is nice work Mikey
but while we all look at the same rosters/numbers, don’t expect everyone to come to the same conclusions as you. That’s just the nature of predictions.
I personally think the Angels have taken a step back while the A’s, Rangers and Mariners have been improving. Each team has weaknesses, and I expect the division to be a dogfight, with at least three of the teams still fighting on September 1.
VERY WELL???
Could you elaborate? I know you wrote half a page but I must be missing something, over two thirds of the competing AL west will do very well? Really?
You didn’t mention the A’s you expect to do well because…. All A’s regress and everyone else improves. Yea in that situation the A’s are screwed.
I will admit I am Shocked to hear the Guiterrez hit 283 with 18 hrs I thought he was a career 240 guy. Other than that though I think they match up pretty well. And before you say didnt I read your post let me explain
We have places in the line up where we are stronger C, is the most obvious. And then there are a lot of question marks around both the Mariners and A’s.
For the Mariners will Guiterrez regress to his career norm or was 09 just what he can do in a full season, does Bradley get hurt? Does Wilson’s slide downwards continue? When does Milton Bradley flipout or break or both? When does Griffey break, or Bedard?
Yes the A’s have lots of questions as well and some are identical to the Mariners, is Davis for real? will Sheets and Duke be healthy? Does Barton come around or does he struggle some more? When do Carter and Taylor show up will they be productive? Is Crisp completely healed?
The Rangers have a much better lineup but we have a much better pitching and I will take pitching over offense. After Scott Feldman the Rangers pitching gets really really bad. And sure the they can score 5 runs a game but I am not convinced they can stop 6
And yea like I said the Angels are good their pitching is more of a bunch of “kings” instead of any true ace, Weaver has always been a little worse in the second half then the first. Which is the exact oppisite of what I want in an ace. Well I would rather they are never bad but the time to choke is not the down the stretch,
Agreed but...
I absolutly agree with you. There are variables when it comes to baseball, but on both sides. Any given player can have an off season or get injured on both the A’s or their competitors. I was just looking at the team as it is. Assuming everyone is healthy and good to go, matching up players to players doesnt look good for us. Of course the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers could all be cursed this season and end up with a bunch of injuries and poor performances, while the A’s stay healthy. But if that doesn.t happen the A’s will have a very hard time competing. Especially in the offensive category.
I agree that we have some areas that are just as good as others on the other teams. Such as our C, 1B, and OFs. They have room for great potential this season and lets hope it happens. But even so, Suzuki trying to compete with Napoli who can hit 20+HRs and has an average OPS of .850, or Barton trying to compete with Morales (just look at his stats), thats all a long stretch. As for outfield, our outfielders had a good last season and can do even better this season, but can they really compete with players like Ichiro, Cruz, Abreu, Hunter, and Rivera?
That is the question in place. I am not saying all the A’s players will do poorly, I’m just saying that unless a miracle happens, even if the A’s players do well, they are competing in a division with a whole different caliber of palyers.
I don't get the love for Garko/Kotchman
Neither have been very good since 2007. It shouldn’t be expected that they’ll be an upgrade at all over Branyan.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
As a platoon, it's better than either one by themselves
And with Kotchman’s glove out there 3/4 of the time, it’s not bad defensively. Meaning it’s “fine” — but nothing to get excited about. I’d rather have Barton.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd also rather have Branyan than those two guys
And Seattle HAD him. I mostly like what Seattle has done, but that part doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Feb 9, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
Branyan got hurt and then started sucking
Eventually he hurt so bad that he was shut down.
His ability to play competently (and DL-free) in 2010 is in serious question.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
When I stopped reading the post:
When the little guys can hit over .275
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Feb 9, 2010 9:19 PM PST reply actions
Reading the posts is overrated
I only go back and do that when I’m missing some blatant reference in the comments!
Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)
by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 9, 2010 11:02 PM PST up reply actions
Besides, Mikey6, the platypus doesn't have a sufficient amount of webbing.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
nice try.
I was just kidding, though. I at least SKIM through the posts!
Celebrating my 5 year ANniversary... (SPWC/K56/ThePilotsDaredMeToDie/Gaijin_Suketto)
by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 10, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
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