Clearance, Clarence

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 5, 2010 3:06 PM PST

Of Buck, Koooooz & Utility Grit

There was much ado about Buck recently, and while most of you have likely read this, for those that haven't this clears things up a bit in our minds, if not on the field:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?&entry_id=56727

Thanks SuSlu, as usual. And good to hear both BB at least professing love and Buck professing he understands he needs to perform and HAS had his chances.

We're all excited about having some resolution at 3B. I'm looking forward to Kooooz filling the air with our love, many times this season. But, could some of the serious stats folks around here get into his numbers from the last three years for me and explain why he seems to be on a steady decline?! That OPS is going the wrong way for a player his age. Is this something that's not as rare as we would think? Are we overlooking this due to our lack of power, his power and our desperation for a 3B, any 3B?

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=450260

Finally, while we all know to varying degrees how much "grit" is often overblown, I've watched a lot of video of Adam Rosales lately and have to say the man is straight up bothersome. He runs around the bases fast on HRs (which his size portends won't be all that rare,) runs to 1st on BBs, and is constantly hustling in everything he does. Not to mention he has a really strong arm, plays solid D (originally a ss so who knows) all over and is the kind of guy you like on your team and other teams don't like playing against.

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?roster_year=2009&player_id=489267&c_id=oak

Between Rosales and Sogard there could be a hidden (minor trade) gem unearthed.

Getting closer. Go A's!!

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Hmm

My first post attempting links. Didn’t seem to work too well. Sorry about that. Can somebody explain to me why the links didn’t come out bold?

Thanks

Deswho?

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 5, 2010 3:13 PM PST reply actions

When you are editing your fanpost

highlight the text you want to be hyperlinked and click on the button that looks like chainlinks (links get it!). That will allow to bold your links.

Drinking so much that you forget your name is like trying to cure cancer, it might not be possible, but you should never stop trying.

by Trojanbrand on Feb 5, 2010 3:30 PM PST reply actions

You realize Kouz (along with every player in mlb)

Could not hit very well in the park where he played half his games?

I think we are in for a couple pleasant surprises this year, Kouz being the biggest.

by PL78 on Feb 5, 2010 4:48 PM PST reply actions

I'll elaborate on who I think is going to surprise

1. Kouzmanoff. Career Home OPS: 674. Road: 805. This is his age 28 season and many fans in SD believed his glove to be “the shit” and gold glove deserving. He murdered the living daylights out of the minors, so there IS an a serious hitter somewhere in there. SD, not the place to nurture such a hitter. I dont believe the A’s park to be in the same sentence with SD when talking about park factors, good hitters will succeed here, and literally no one can hit there. That place turns 1072 OPS guys into Bobby Crosby. Kouz was simply another victim of a comedically stupid laid out park.

2. Meloan. Here’s a guy who was just blowing away hitters from the outset with the position of “dominating closer” in his future. Then, after AA, the Dodgers for no reason whatsoever decided to make this awesome reliever into a starter. It was a complete failure and sapped his confidence. Im not quite sure why but he was then moved to the Indians, Rays, Pirates and finally the A’s over the course of 6 months. That’s got to be strange and unsettling. Anyway he was very impressive in his 2 weeks in the bigs, SSS aside, he has always had a really high ceiling and the Coli is the perfect place to reach it. He really could be Devine 2.0.

3. BA. He’s getting hyped pretty hard and its well deserved. 3.63 FIP in your 1st year is special, now we have plus defenders at every position on the diamond, he might have a really ridiculous year. Washburn’s 3.80 FIP in Seattle last year turned into a 2.64 ERA thanks to awesome defense, Anderson could easily get the same or better results this year.

4. Suzuki. He’s in his age 26 season now and he doubled his HR total last year from the year before. He definitely matured a bit as a hitter, if he got his walk total up a bit and keep those HR’s spiraling up, I think his bat is really going to surprise people. 20-25 HR isnt completely out of the question.

5. Cust. It was frustrating watching Cust swing away all the time in the first half of the season. We know and have seen his game and that isnt it. He threw up a .399 OBP in the second half but the damage was already done and he was fairly useless altogether because he was playing defense. He’s not doing that this year and if he stays true to his game we will see the 08 version and not the 09 one. He is going to surprise those who are near-sighted or just plain old haters.

by PL78 on Feb 5, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

+1

If you even get just 60% of these predictions, we’re right on target for October.

by paris7 on Feb 5, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions

20-25 HR from Suzuki is quite a bit.

Going forward, I think Suzuki’s going to be a league average batter (James, Marcel and CHONE all agree with this).

However, Suzuki doesn’t need to be a offensive threat to be a very good player. Average offense from a catcher is great. Considering his defense is pretty widely acknowledged as above average and that he’s been extremely durable, he’s going to be a very valuable player going forward.

by Opus Youngblood on Feb 5, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks Trojanbrand, i'll attempt that

Yes, PL78, i’m very aware of PetCo.

Wherever Kouz was playing though, it was the regress over 3 years in OPS that alarmed(s) me, not the actual OPS (although of course we hope that improves in more than just a park effect way.)

Deswho?

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 5, 2010 5:00 PM PST reply actions

Roger, Roger. What's our vector, Victor?

JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker

by JJ Martin on Feb 5, 2010 5:18 PM PST reply actions

And please

Don’t call me Shirley.

Deswho?

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 5, 2010 5:20 PM PST reply actions

Thanks for the input DL78

Again though, what i’m looking for from those who really know how to read the new stats is why Kouz has regressed overall in OPS 3 straight years when his burgeoning experience and growing toward prime age would normally show growth.

I’m guessing the answer can be found by the “deep stats” guys/gals. BABIP? Bad luck in some other way?

Because if it wasn’t those things then Kouz may be what we see in the numbers. And that would mean he may always have real issues with being an improved hitter.

I hope not, and not to be a wetblanket, but i just noticed his slashes were regressing, that’s all.

I too think he’s at the age you really can explode and “get it,” and hope for this, but …

Deswho?

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 5, 2010 6:48 PM PST reply actions

There is no "answer"

Performance varies randomly. The kinds of changes that Kouzmanoff has had in the past couple of seasons are well within the range of random variation.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 5, 2010 7:09 PM PST up reply actions

For some reason I'll post this here...

when I close my eyes and think of a graph of random fluctuations over time, I see a 3D graph, in which there’s a little sphere, irregularly orbiting the line representing the fluctuations.

The line represents what occurs randomly, and the sphere orbiting the line represents the effect of consciousness on randomness, and therefore, reality…

"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 7, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions

Now try it without the LSD

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 7, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions

One could probe his OPS splits the last 3 seasons...

Is he regressing on the road as well as Petco?

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Feb 5, 2010 7:30 PM PST up reply actions

A little bit but not dramatically

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 5, 2010 8:42 PM PST up reply actions

You should also probably look at OPS+ and sOPS+ not OPS

His OPS+ are more stable. 110, 100, 100. My point is that he was so miserable at home, he sOPS+d 93, 70, 71 there in his 3 years. That’s disgusting. He hit very well away consistently, and is now away from Petco, ergo, he will be a LOT better at than his numbers have indicated so far.

by PL78 on Feb 6, 2010 1:08 AM PST up reply actions

Somewhat reassuring

Thanks PL78, i forgot about OPS+ (must really dig into the newer stats someday.) All of you, that’s what i was looking for and i guess i could have answered this myself, but thanks.

Yeah, i guess it’s all still within the realm of lots of things could happen for Kouzmanoff.

For sure he’ll do better out of that park, and who knows, a change of scenery etc. He’ll probably always lack drawing many walks, but if he just slugs well and gives good enough ABs, with great D, we’ll gladly take it.

Deswho?

by supersugarCrisp on Feb 6, 2010 1:13 AM PST reply actions

For those of us just browsing the thread...

it would be way easier to follow the conversation if you’d respond to specific posts instead of adding your response as a new post all the way at the bottom. If you want to refer to something PL78 said, hit the “Reply” link at the bottom of his post.

(You can do whatever you want, but if you’re willing to help the rest of us follow your thoughts better, this would be a great step.)

Stewart: "What really needs to be clear is it wouldn't have mattered if there was an earthquake or not. We were going to beat the Giants.

by Elvez on Feb 6, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions