Lincecum + Arb = A's out of San Jose! O.o
by ST on Feb 3, 2010 11:10 PM PST
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PrintJust when you thought you heard enough propaganda from the Gnats camp on the A's impending move to SJ, here comes a new twist on things. Apparently, Andrew B., a Krukow Koolaid drinking Gnats blogger / fanboi believes one of the real motives to the Gnats challenging Lincecum's arb figures is that there is some backroom brown-nosing happening to dissuade other owners from keeping the A's moving down south:
On Tim Lincecum’s 2010 salary, and one Giant motivation to hold it down
There's no mention why the Giants chose a ridiculously low figure of $8million (because they could of just matched RyHo's $10 million and be done with it). Or why they didn't go the Longoria path and sign a long term deal (without insulting Lincecum). Rather, the explanation is to blame it on the A's.
I guess if the A's stayed in Oakland or the moved to only Fremont, then the Giants would of signed him to a Zito-like contract then? /facepalm
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And yet another conspiracy theory
In the wise words of Mychael Urban, “I don’t buy it, but I see why the theory exists.”
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
He didn't have one legitimate point in that entire post.
I’m not even sure if I know what the hell I just read.
"You're just jealous. You wish you had a rally animal..." -CardinalWraith
It really was impressive.
In a throw 919,365,918,651 darts and never hit the board kind of way.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
Me:
“This entire line of thinking is a massive pile of stupid. I think I’ve gotten dumber just reading it.”
yeah, me too
I think I lost a few IQ points with that article.
You're going to hollywood!
by sf drift king on Feb 4, 2010 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
That theory's loopier than the Wolff ''losing on purpose" one.
To Andrew B.: You can draw anything you want if you connect the dots in the wrong order.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
by danmerqury on Feb 4, 2010 12:40 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
I love that line. Is that from something or when I steal it, do I have to cite you?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Feb 4, 2010 1:14 AM PST up reply actions
I kind of amazed myself by thinking of it.
Course, I’m sure I read it somewhere a long time ago and forgot all about it.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
QOTM
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
by PaulThomas on Feb 4, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
my subconscious impression of this post in pictures
Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?
No Micheal Moore
Funny but not even close. After Verlander and his 5/80 contract it will cost the giants atleast 5/90 and maybe 100. If my memory is correct Zito has some back load in his contract so it will be even harder to sign Timmy.
Zito's backload
Has kicked in now. He is making $18.5 mil this season and next, then $19 mil, then $20 mil. Rowand is at $12 mil for this season and the next two. Add in Lincecum at somewhere around $13 mil average for the next 3 years and you have about half of a $90 million pay roll invested int three players, two who are not providing much value as compared to their salaries.
Posey, Sandoval and whoever the heck else they can find at a low cost better have multiple 6 or 7 WAR years for the team to be good.
I hoenstly thought they should have traded Matt Cain in a “Dan Haren Deal” where they 2 studs, 1 above average guy and two usable pieces in return before last season. I still think they should have, especially considering this stuff.
It sucks that their mismanagement is now being painted as a reason to keep the A’s out fo exploring San Jose. It is hogwash. But, we are talking about a team run by a monopolist. He knows the PR game and how to spin things… I don’t think Baggarly came up with this crap on his own. It is just like the Stand For San Jose farce, the push polls in San Jose… The Giants are playing nasty and it is time for Bud Selig to open his flippin’ mouth.
The A's got 6!
3 potential studs, 1 usable guy, 2 useful now guys :-)
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
Breakdown
4 of the 6 are now gone, but were useable
Anderson- potential ace
Carter – middle order bat
Cunningham – main piece that helped get kouzmanoff
Smith and Eveland- they exceeded expectations in 2008 and both looked like solid mid-back rotation types. They might still get something useful for Eveland in the next week.
Cargon- helped get holliday, then later wallace, and turned into Taylor
Smith also helped get Holliday.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
good point
it is just PR. Like how the giants complain about the A’s taking revenue dollars but don’t want the A’s to have a new stadium. The player Sabean should have traded this off season is Sanchez who value has peaked. He could have brought in a much needed hitter but instead refuses to trade anyone of value.
Sanchez
A trade of him in attempt to be better last year, a one for one swap, would have been a dismal failure. The rotation would have been thinner and the offense was more than one hitter away from winning a playoff spot.
This is why I prefer the Beane method. We ain’t close, tear it down in return for big upside.
I agree with you jeffro.
I have been saying this to all of my Giants friends for the last two years.
If the Giants had any foresight they would have already entertained multiple offers from clubs around the league in regards to Matt Cain. He is “the guy” to trade on that ball club and I have no idea why they insist on trying to hold onto him “and” Lincecum. They are not gonna be able to afford both of them very soon so common sense tells you that you trade your " highly valuable asset" and get something great in return so that you can afford to keep your “prize asset”.
Especially considering that the Giants still have Sanchez and Bumgardner behind Zito and Lincecum. They could have done what Billy Beane did and signed a vet pitcher and it would only cost them money. If they trade Cain then more than likely they get a couple of good bats and a decent-above average pitching prospect in return. I mean look what Beane got in return for Dan Haren at the time. And we’re talking about Matt Cain who just had a terrific season and is really starting dominate, and is still affordable!
You mean to tell me the Giants can’t see this? You gotta be kidding me…
On the article front, complete and utter bullshit in regards to the A’s.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
I thought they should have moved him LAST offseason
He would have been a very attractive counterweight to the other available options on the market. I think they could definitely have gotten Haren-like value for him. Instead, they have a crappy team with a ceiling of about 85 wins, very little in the farm system, and basically no hope of winning anything during the tenure with the team of their two best players.
It’s just amazing how utterly incompetent Brian Sabean is in all respects.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Which is why I disagree that he could have gotten a Haren-like deal for Cain
It’s just amazing how utterly incompetent Brian Sabean is in all respects.
He would probably trade Cain for Juan Pierre or something
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
That would be a good deal for the Giants because Pierre is fast.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, sort of
I mean, the very fact of trading Matt Cain in and of itself presupposes that Brian Sabean is not in charge…
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
To a man
Brian Sabean did not want to give Zito that ridiculous contract, bottom line. That was Peter McGowan all the way, basically delivering the message to sign Zito “no matter what the cost!” I know this to be a fact from my source who has had personal conversations with Sabes in the past. He also never wanted to bring Bonds back the last few years either; that being another McGowan and Co. decision.
However, Sabean “is responsible” for quite a few other FA signings and trades that did not go so well.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
If he didn't want to bring Bonds back in 2007, that's a negative
not a positive…
Between the actual value Barry gave them on the field and the added revenue from publicity/ticket sales/etc etc, that contract was an unbelievable no-brainer.
Zito’s contract was horrible but at least it was a stab at acquiring a top-tier talent. Sabean’s own signings have uniformly been third-rate veterans approaching “walking corpse” levels of awful. He’s unwilling to trust his own prospects and ends up spending comical amounts of money— money which could make the team highly competitive in the effort to sign top-tier FA— replacing them with ancient players who are not any better at baseball.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
I agree with you Paul
What I was saying is, privately, Sabean did not want to bring Bonds back, but it was not his decision. And neither was Zito’s signing. It was more a PR move than anything to put a new face on the franchise.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
those have to be 2 of the worst contracts of all time
not counting ones that involved injuries.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
wow
his last 3 years have been terrible both Zito and Rowand have higher WAR in that time.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Nah
Wells has by far the worst contract in baseball right now.
Valuing prospects according to the rubric devised by Victor Wang based on historical performance sometime about the middle of last season leads to the conclusion that if the Blue Jays offered you:
a. Vernon Wells,
b. Roy Halladay, and
c. their entire farm system
and demanded nothing in return, a prudent team should decline the offer.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
I'm not see his logic
How does the Giants having to pay well over $10 for Lincecum keep the A’s out of San Jose?
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
The idea is not that they pay more to keep the A's out, it's that a lower price tag on Timmy
would keep the owners happy because it would be trying to reign in the contracts of young 2x Cy Young award winning pitchers, which would give other owners leverage to give cheaper contracts to their own pitchers. Happy owners might be on their side in the upcoming territorial vote.
The only thing to add
Is that in arbitration… the Giants take a huge gamble that they actually make it worse. Because if they can’t make as good an argument that Lincecum deserves $8 Million, they will be paying $13 Million… By their logic (or Baggarly’s) if Lincecum gets $13 Million they have just escalated salaries.
Except are there any other young 2 time Cy young winners?
There are lots of good pitchers, but how many that get accomplishments this fast? Te conspiracy theory is too far-fetched for me.
It's not a sensible theory
Especially given that however much owners might be grateful to the Giants for paying Lincecum $9M instead of $11M this season, it won’t override their desire to not have to pay out $20M in revenue sharing to the A’s every year.
Not using the arb numbers specifically.
I was figuring that somewhere around $11M would be where the settlement would end up if they went the normal route, but that the Giants probably weren’t offering much more than $9M.
Yeah
They’re going to lose the arbitration hearing. Lincecum is far and away worth more than Howard was when he got $10 million. $13 million is far from a stretch for easily one of the best pitchers in the game.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Even that $13MM figure is relatively conservative.
I guessed that Lincecum would have submitted 15 or something. I mean, he’s just now hit arbitration, and he already has two Cy Youngs in his belt.
That $8MM offer from the Giants is just ridiculous.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
Did you see the fangraphs article?
it makes the argument that $8M is not out of line with first year eligible people. I don’t buy it, but there it is.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
If I'm reading it right
they’re assuming he’s merely “as good” as CC. He’s significantly better. On the open market I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge bidding war for him that pushed him far and above what CC got.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
That is something I didn't think about
You are right, he has been better that CC, I he should get more. I think the article was just using WAR value generically though.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
Is there a vote scheduled?
If so, when is it?
Nothing scheduled, as far as I know. Bud gets the recommendation
(or is it just ‘facts’) from the Blue Ribbon Committee on Monday, so he decides to give the A’s Santa Clara County, it’d be in an owners meeting. I think they just had one last month, and I think they are quarterly. April or July could be the vote.
by LoneStranger on Feb 5, 2010 11:12 PM PST up reply actions
The real reason why the Giants are not signing Lincecum long term...
Is because from the baseball side of things they are a poorly run company. Sure they deserve credit for getting Pac Bell park built. But with a new profitable ball park, they have no reason not to sign Lincecum to a long term contract. He is their franchise, and he dosen’t get hurt. And their prospects are overrated also. Take that!
Right.
If they signed him long-term, they could give him less per year over, say four or six years, instead of paying out the yinyang every year.
Maybe they’re skittish about another Zito thing, but honestly, wouldn’t you want to lock him up early and for less considering you are also starting to pay Zito more per year?
Rob Neyer's take:
This all seems a little complicated, though, doesn’t it?
My guess is the Giants just filed the wrong number. It happens.
And:
They filed at $8 million; Lincecum filed at $13 million. Let’s assume for a moment that the Giants’ figure is artificially low. Doesn’t that increase the chance that Lincecum will clear the $10 million bar? If the Giants had filed at $9 million or $10 million, wouldn’t they have a better chance of winning the case?
Or maybe the Giants didn’t figure this thing would go to arbitration (most of them don’t). Maybe they figured they could file at $8 million and Lincecum would file at $10-$11 million and they’d settle around the mid-point, which would have been shy of the Ryan Howard Bar.
This is nonsense
The A’s in San Jose, means more money for the owners. In the end, I believe that’s what will win out over some rediculas theory or their pandering using the stupid SJ Giants.
Woohoo, I get to look forward to another 7-6 season ("at best") in 2010! There's nothing like going to Idaho for a bowl game.
intriguing, huh?
I mean, it was before the Sheets workout but a two year contract is still odd. He must have impressed some people in Japan.
The writer of this piece
has no conception of how arbitration works. It can be safely dismissed as complete nonsense.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
by PaulThomas on Feb 4, 2010 12:58 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Ratto doesn't have many fans here
stil, I think his take on the Lincecum arbitration issue – including the suggestion about the Giants’ offer being influenced by the proposed move to San José – makes a lot of sense.
I also agree with
Urban’s take here
I don’t believe the territorial rights issue has anything to do with Lincecum’s salary issue.
Even if you accept the conspiracy theory...
The A’s don’t stay in Oakland. They’ll be leaving the Bay Area or at best end up in Fremont since the EB Express found out that the sites in Oakland aren’t viable realistically since eminent domain would need to be used to evict many of the current owners.
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