Dave Cameron on Cliff Pennington in 2010
by PL78 on Feb 15, 2010 1:37 PM PST
68 comments
The general consensus is that Pennington is one of our biggest question marks in 2010: we know he's capable of at least league average defense, but will that 760 OPS remain steady or fall off so bad he will hinder the team?
Cameron thinks we need to chill:
As one of those decent-at-everything-great-at-nothing types, Pennington avoided hype while climbing the minor league ladder despite being a former first round selection. His lack of power is usually one of the first things people will mention, but he's not David Eckstein or Luis Castillo - he hits the ball hard enough where you can't just throw him a fastball down the middle. He controls the strike zone well, makes good contact, and is a pretty good baserunner, plus he offers the benefit of being a switch hitter.
If he can show enough glove to stick at shortstop, he's one of the better young players in the game at the position. Yet, he's almost never talked about outside of Oakland, at least as far as I can tell. Most teams would love to have a guy at SS with Pennington's offensive abilities, and if the A's end up as contenders in the west, don't be surprised if their shortstop is one of the reasons why.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/daves-guys-the-hitters
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You actually want to talk about baseball on a baseball blog?
For shame.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
I vote we focus on Bode Miller's alcoholism
who cares about winter medals.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Well, my initial reaction was
‘Why is the next Prime Minister of Great Britiain concerned with Cliff Pennington? Doesn’t he have better things to do?’
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Clearly the Brits love them A's.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
I'm still not sold all the way on Pennington
But I am happy to see knowledgeable folks think that he is a pretty good young player. If he can bring league average or better production to the shortstop position it would be huge for the A’s.
"huge for the A's"
I think anything better than BoCro’s .220 BA will be huge for the A’s, as well as the sanity of fans like me.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 15, 2010 3:28 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks for this post
The “left side of the infield” question still nags, but it’s my sincere hope that Cliff and Kouz can make it work for us out there.
I made a fANshot
over here with this link.
My take is that Pennington might be improving as a hitter, but that his performance last year was a fluke. So I like his chances of beating his CHONE or Bill James projections (.666 and .676 OPS, respectively), but I don’t think he will come close to his 2009 performance (.760 OPS).
This seems fair.....
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 15, 2010 3:28 PM PST up reply actions
A .700 OPS with average shortstop defense is actually pretty valuable
At the very least, he won’t be a problem, even if he’s not exactly an asset. This is how I view Pennington.
www.zekeishungry.com
This is about what I hope for
I expect average defense overall and hope for a .700 OPS (but expect closer to .230/.300/.350).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Pennington has always been able to get on base
So I dont get the .300 OBP.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Very few hits + little fear of throwing him strikes =
OBP 70 points above AVG. So if he were to hit .230…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's actually about exactly what I got when regressing his babip to a normal number: .226 avg with a .301 OBP
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Well spank my ass and call me Judy!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'll be right over.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I'm not touching your ass Judy
Leopold Bloom on why he loves Mr. Peter Gammons, his best buddy:
"Peter Gammons systematically ignored and/or ran down the A’s in the pages of Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News for a good ten year stretch in the late seventies and early to mid-eighties. Trust me, the c**ksucker hates our team."
Ok
So why .230?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Shallow OF, power pitchers will make him hit in the air,
good pitchers will find and exploit his weaknesses, bad pitchers will walk him. Once the league figures him out, I just don’t see him getting a ton of hits. Obviously, I hope I’m mistaken.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I just think that at worst he's David Eckstein
Who has similar problems, but also has a .282 career average.
Some guys just find ways to produce.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Does lots good, nothing great (supposedly)
That is why the tepidness surrounding Cliff P.
While i’ve been reading the takes on Pennington from many A’s fans, part of me was torn. From what i saw he seemed to be able to put a bit of a charge into the ball. Sure, he’s not all that, but for a rookie he seemed to give you good ABs and as a switch hitter…..well, i think Cameron is onto something.
If Pennington finds a groove as a hitter he has some bulk to him, lending credibility to his power potential (and he is a SS, so some power is all one can ask for.)
His fielding isn’t wizardly, but he isn’t bad.
Could we have a sleeper answer at SS right here all along while nobody’s been “on it?”
Or am i just suffering from spring fever?
Deswho?
by supersugarCrisp on Feb 15, 2010 2:58 PM PST reply actions
As long as he's not the second coming of Donnie Murphy
I’ll be happy.
If Pennington manages 17 HRs, I’ll vow to consume an article of clothing to achieve a humorous effect --Joey C.
Thank God
Nylon gives me indigestion.
"Smokey, this be not the foul jungles of the darkest East Orient. This be ninepins. We are bound by laws."
That's more of a gray area...
"Smokey, this be not the foul jungles of the darkest East Orient. This be ninepins. We are bound by laws."
What can we get you to eat....
if he hits 10? The cover of a baseball? Some bat shavings?
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Feb 15, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
I think Donnie Murphy had (has?) the tools to be a well-above average player.
But the Royals royally (ha!) fucked him over and destroyed his development.
www.zekeishungry.com
If Pennington can
manage to become at least an average defensive SS, I think he’ll do fine for the A’s over the next couple of seasons until Green, or another SS makes a push at the MLB level. He showed solid BB rates in the minors, and if he can continue that in the major leagues he won’t have to hit .290 or have 15+ HR’s every season to make him a solid SS. .270/.365/.385 would be great, but even if he only manages .250/.345/.365 with some SB’s, he’s a pretty valuable asset.
I think Dave's completely wrong on this one
He has no statistical arguments, only a hunch. When you take a cursory glance at his major league stats, you see the nice walk drawing ability and a hint of power, even if he had a slightly high BABIP. It’s only when you delve deep into Pennington’s minor league stats that you notice he really has NO power and his BABIPs in the minors were not near his major league one. I guess the hope is Pennington’s stats were hurt by nagging injuries he played through. But do we really trust the A’s medical staff to stop Pennington from doing that again in the majors?
Cameron didn’t even write a whole article on Pennington, I’m not surprised he’s not as worried as me about the A’s SS.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Feb 15, 2010 11:08 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
A's might be slightly worried
They seem willing to give pennington a shot at the everyday SS job, yet brought in Rosales and Tolleson for depth and will also have Petit and Josh Horton in AAA.
by MagicMike23 on Feb 16, 2010 12:00 AM PST up reply actions
The A's also tried to land Scutaro
Seems to me they’re going with Pennington mostly because he’s what they have.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Though they didn't appear to go after any of the other options
So it’s possible they just thought they had a shot at a guy they thought was clearly superior, but otherwise feel comfortable with Pennington.
www.zekeishungry.com
The hunch is supported pretty well by statistics
The relevant numbers for Pennington are what he did in Oakland and Sacramento the last two years. And those numbers support Cameron’s argument. I don’t see any reason to be especially worried.
by andyinfremont on Feb 16, 2010 12:07 AM PST up reply actions
Not really
Even just using his last two years:
Cliff Pennington 2009* MLE: .587
*From when he was in the minors
Cliff Pennington 2008 MLE: .594
The only thing that supports Pennington as a reasonable hitter is his 2009 ML stats. And they were fueled by an above average BABIP and career high HR/FB%.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Honestly, I'm not that impressed by MLE as a measuring tool
Pennington’s overall OPS has improved the last 3 years as he’s moved up the ladder, which tells me that he could continue to develop. You also can’t just throw out his time with the A’s because it’s convenient for your argument. His OPS is still just average, but that’s was Cameron’s point — he looks to be decent at everything; a solid and underrated young player.
by andyinfremont on Feb 26, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
the injury issue with pennington
from what i recall, he was always banged up in the minor, and his stint in oakland was the healthiest he’d been – he was a pretty highly touted prospect. small sample size, of course, but if he’s finally healthy, maybe those numbers from last year aren’t so fluke-ish. of course, he’s now with the big league club, so i suppose he’s bound to lose an arm at some point in spring training.
Hey...HEY!!!
You cant be bringing up actual reasons why a player would underperform against the “stats are the only thing I believe in” set! M.L.E. OR D.I.E. son!
Yeah, because I totally didn't mention it in my post
I guess the hope is Pennington’s stats were hurt by nagging injuries he played through. But do we really trust the A’s medical staff to stop Pennington from doing that again in the majors?
The best argument Pennington supporters have is that Pennington was hurt AND PLAYED THROUGH IT to his own detriment. Oh and he did this the first 3 years of his career. But now that he’s in the majors he won’t ever get hurt again. And he certainly won’t play through it again. Nobody would be stupid enough to play through an injury. Especially on the A’s.
Oh yeah, let’s also completely ignore the half year he spent in the minors in 2009, which corroborated the rest of his minor league stat line.
So quit with the vaguely insulting anti-stat mantra.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I took it more as just a joke
could be wrong in the intention though
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I took it as a joke too.
But that being said, I’m reeeeeally getting tired of the Murray Chass/Jon Heyman make-not-witty-“witty”-acronyms-up “joke”.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
uhhh
MLE is a real stat man. I used it in a pun, unless you thought I was meaning D.I.E. as a stat? In which case, lol, no dude I used it because its a rhyme and kind of funny.
I just cant respect anyone who thinks they can predict the future stats of any player. Breakouts can happen at any time, as can declines. I think its a joke everytime I read about how “Pennington is going to be the sux0rz because of these 2 years he played in the minors and he sucked” meanwhile those same people completely ignore Kouzmanoff’s absolute minor league destruction of pitching and think he’s going to stink too just because he couldnt hit in SD.
I have no idea why people arent into looking at the positives and are convinced Pennington will OPS 650 next year when there are a multitude of reasons for and against. We simply must let it happen and quit this nonsense. I love stats but hate them when they are used for Nostradamus purposes. That shit never work out and is just annoying to have to read.
Predictions annoy you? Or just non-pollyannish predictions?
I predict you will be frequently annoyed.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 17, 2010 6:26 AM PST up reply actions
Given his prior posting track record,
it’s fairly obviously the latter of the two…
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Huh?
No, really, huh? You’re saying there’s no point in any form of statistical prediction?
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
Statistical Analysis built this organization.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I thought we built it on rock and roll.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's all propoganda.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Well, Pseu, Pseu, Pseudio
We didn’t start the fire!
Deswho?
by supersugarCrisp on Feb 17, 2010 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
That was the city
The organization was on SA. It might explain why one is falling apart…
Leopold Bloom on why he loves Mr. Peter Gammons, his best buddy:
"Peter Gammons systematically ignored and/or ran down the A’s in the pages of Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News for a good ten year stretch in the late seventies and early to mid-eighties. Trust me, the c**ksucker hates our team."
This is amusingly illogical
People who believe minor league stats tell you something, by and large, are the same people who think Kouzmanoff is a solid hitter. Most of the “he’s garbage, we’re doomed!!” chorus is coming from people who have yet to grasp the concept of park effects.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
A moment of silly defensiveness
Just for the record, my earlier post with CONCERNS about Kouzmanoff’s flatlining (or worse) OPS did take into account SD’s park. It was not the park, but the lack of advancement.
I do think in Oakland he’ll hit better, with age, change of scenery and, as PT pointed out to me, his stats all fall well within the range of whichamacallit, all making me optimistic.
I’m hopeful about Kouz but guardedly so.
Deswho?
by supersugarCrisp on Feb 17, 2010 2:06 PM PST up reply actions
feelin bullish on c-penn
from watching him play in the second half. i was a skeptic at first, but he has a gun of an arm, plays quite decent D, and he’s a hustler who hits the ball hard. in a building year like this, he doesn’t pose any real risk. he’ll probably struggle a bit at the plate for stretches, but we don’t have to expect him to be the ss of the future, and we have little to lose watching him develop over the course of a full season. i’m with cameron’s hunch on this guy.
I hope he does well,
and I hope just as much that I never see that abomination of a nickname again.
I don’t like the initial-plus-first-syllable-of-last-name formula at all, but some are worse than others. What’s next? R-Swee? L-Pow?
At least W-Tav is gone now.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Not just Batman
SPANISH Batman.
Leopold Bloom on why he loves Mr. Peter Gammons, his best buddy:
"Peter Gammons systematically ignored and/or ran down the A’s in the pages of Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News for a good ten year stretch in the late seventies and early to mid-eighties. Trust me, the c**ksucker hates our team."
Ooh, I like this.
I have a feeling it will be recapitulated in a game thread some day.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Done.
Landon’s new nickname? Spanish Batman.
Always the summers are slipping away.
Find me a way for making it stay.
Why Spanish as opposed to French
L’Pow — French Batman
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Feb 18, 2010 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
Explaining it would ruin it
So I won’t.
Leopold Bloom on why he loves Mr. Peter Gammons, his best buddy:
"Peter Gammons systematically ignored and/or ran down the A’s in the pages of Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News for a good ten year stretch in the late seventies and early to mid-eighties. Trust me, the c**ksucker hates our team."
Because the formula is to say the name of the first letter.
The L is pronounced “el”.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
It's too bad Powell's first name doesn't start with "T"
then we could call him “T’Pau”.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
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