What is the best solution?
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 5, 2010 11:16 PM PST
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PrintFree agents seem to be avoiding the A's like the plague. Jack Cust has been unceremoniously dumped into the free agent pool to be picked at and prodded by the likes of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This team needs more talent, and it doesn't seem like there's anywhere for it to come from. As a whole, Billy Beane has done a very subpar job in this last "rebuild". He traded Dan Haren for a load, which was a great move, but then he too quickly tried to turn one of the best pieces of that load into a one-year quick fix (Matt Holliday), which failed miserably and brought the A's back much less than they gave away for half a season of Holliday. Billy Beane seems to lack patience, and given the current state of the team, patience is exactly what he needs to have. This team is built for one of two things: either to make a run at the title, or to be blown up and reassembled in hopefully much better shape than it is currently. Here's why I think blowing the team up makes the most sense...
In addition, several A's players performed well above their career norms last season, due to extremely high defensive RAR values, fluky balls in play stats, or some other combination of factors. Coco Crisp has never been a 6 WAR player, but he put up 3.3 WAR in less than half a season. Kevin Kouzmanoff's defensive stats (16.1 RAR) were flukily high for a player who seems to throw like he's afraid of throwing too hard or his arm will fall off. Daric Barton is an excellent defender, but 12.1 is a lot of RAR for a first baseman. Trevor Cahill's BABIP stats were flukily low and will likely regress toward the mean next year.
Overall, this team seemingly outperformed what was expected from them and still didn't even manage to finish over .500. For the A's to make a run this year, they need two more pieces AND a whole host of luck, and betting on luck is not a smart move. With high-profile free agents seemingly avoiding Oakland, the team can either shop in the bargain bin, try to make trades, ride it out with what they have (please, no), or try to restock the farm system by trading the players with value for young players with less current value but the upside to potentially have higher value in the future.
Kurt Suzuki could likely still bring back a haul of prospects; he's young, cheap (4 years, $16 million), and a very solid all-around catcher. There are still plenty of teams that would love to have a young catcher on their roster, and I can't see Suzuki not fetching a very solid package if he were dealt.
Trevor Cahill's value will never be higher. Though he's still very young, he put up crazy counting stats last season, and there has to be a team out there willing to pay for that. The Blue Jays just got Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum; Cahill would definitely be worth more than Marcum and would likely bring back multiple prospects better than Lawrie due to that fact that he's not only a good pitcher, but also cost-controlled for another four years.
With the trade market becoming a seller's market in lieu of the Jayson Werth deal, David DeJesus and Coco Crisp likely have a lot of trade value at the moment. At around $5 mil each, they are both significant bargains considering their production. I can't see contending teams not being willing to trade solid prospects for these guys.
Those are just some of the players with trade value that would make sense to consider moving; Ellis, Bailey, Braden, etc. could all make sense to move. Obviously blowing up the team isn't a move you make without sizing up the market for your tradable assets, but I genuinely feel that the team as constructed plus whatever we can grab from the bargain bin is not only likely not a playoff team this year, but continuing as-is likely also makes the fall much harder and more painful. Rather than shoot for the stars with our BB gun, let's spend the money on a spaceship and hope we can make it to the stars in a couple years.
I absolutely welcome dissenting opinions, and would love to hear them. I didn't have this mindset, honestly, until we lost Iwakuma, Beltre, and Berkman; I'm feeling defeatist at the moment. If you think this is a crock of crap, let me know as well, but honestly I think that given the roster we have assembled, the thing that makes the most sense to do is to build around Daric Barton, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez and see if we can't turn our potential future rebuild into more of a "soft reset" at the expense of one or maybe two desperate shots at the playoffs with the team as currently constructed.
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Patience, Grasshopper
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Dec 5, 2010 11:28 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
:)
Rec’d
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 5, 2010 11:54 PM PST up reply actions
I want patience,
but only if I can have it right NOW!
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 5, 2010 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
Projecting?
Billy Beane seems to lack patience, and given the current state of the team, patience is exactly what he needs to have.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 3:18 AM PST up reply actions
I just feel like we have a lot of low-ceiling players that will fizzle out before they get us anywhere
Maybe it’s just defeatist, but I don’t think I’m being hasty as much as trying to look at our roster realistically. PaulThomas has continuously suggested that the farm system is so tapped out that when the current window closes, this team will crash and burn and attempt to rise from the ashes in the dreaded “rebuild” stage. If that’s true, I’d rather soft reset than try to reach what appears to be an unrealistic goal considering the options available to us. Beane has said you’re either rebuilding or contending, but being in the middle is the worst place to be; if that’s true, and the pieces aren’t falling into place for this team to contend, rebuilding is the best course of option, in my opinion.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 5, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think blowing up the team is going to be effective at all
People aren’t trading top prospects anymore, at least not unless the guy coming back is a bonafide star like Gonzalez. The A’s have no bonafide stars; what they have is a bunch of kind of good players who are paid less than they should be for their production. That’s nice and all, but it’s not sexy in the slightest. You’re going to get a bunch more prospects like Josh Outman and Josh Donaldson. Yay?
I don’t believe that there’s any way out of this. (Although continuing to make idiotic decisions like nontendering Cust is not helping matters any.) Every strategy that’s been proffered, whether aggressive or retrenching, strikes me as little better than desperate. The only way I see that the A’s can ever acquire elite talent (other than lucking into it, and they seem to have completely struck out on that in this rebuild) is by losing and losing and losing for literally a decade like the Rays did.
This whole thing has the feel of those eleventh-hour appeals that people try to drum up to save prisoners from lethal injection.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
We'd get a bit better than Outman and Donaldson...
Our pitchers now> Harden
But other than that, I’m in total agreement.
I think you'd have to have a very well rounded team in a fairly weak division otherwise.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:41 PM PST up reply actions
It's very hard to build a team that produces 2 WAR down to the 25th spot.
It’s actually much easier to have a playoff contender with 2-3 stars, and a medley of average to below average to replacement level performances.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Exactly
The team would have to be extremely deep in order to assure 2 WAR production from each and every position.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
Well not 2, or even 2.5 WAR needs to come from each player, right?
I can see the A’s with a handful of 3–4 win players being sustainable.
The closest the A's came to fielding that sort of team (a playoff-contending, cornucopia of average)
was 2006. Not a single player over 4 WAR, with, I think, 4 players in between 3 and 4 WAR. As far as I know, that may be the only team in recent history that was a playoff team with no player over 4 WAR. It was unsustainable due to the inevitability of underperformance from one or two key players and injuries to one or two key players.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
You do have to give the A's credit for their internal prospects effort
I think they could theoretically speed up this state of years of losing and losing and losing by essentially increasing the influx of talent beyond what the draft provides. They may not be in a great position, but they seem to be taking advantage of an opportunity to improve their position with smart effort/money allocation at least on this front.
I think the A's have been telling us this for too long.
Time to show up, Billy.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Dec 6, 2010 8:36 AM PST up reply actions
In light of the Dan Uggla trade....
I think our best approach is to focus on trading for players who are one year away from free agency. The reasoning is that teams, as the uggla trade demonstrated, are not in a position to ask for as much as a player is usually worth and may feel inclined to get young players in their system now as opposed to waiting a year to draft younger players with comp. picks.
A name I have not heard thrown around is Kelly Johnson. Maybe I am being to optimistic but, given his generally solid defensive skills, I would be inclined to say he could handle a switch to third base well, while also providing a strong offensive upgrade to Kouz. Under normal circumstances, acquiring Kelly would require a bevy of prospects after putting up 6.0 WAR last year. But in light of the fact that he will be a FA after 2011, Arizona is not likely to contend, and his value will probably never be higher- Towers should be willing to listen. If we were to offer Tyson Ross + Adrian Cardenas + Jerry Blevins that deal would be comprable to what Atlanta gave up for Uggla. If you think that is not enough, feel free to add Krol or Taylor in place of one of those players- but the point is a deal could reasonably be worked out.
Nico’s suggestion of Josh Willingham also makes sense, in keeping with the acquiring players 1 year away from FA theme, and I believe a deal involving Josh Donaldson + Henry Rodriguez + Clayton Mortenson would be reasonable. The Nationals have no short-term prospect in place at catcher, and it is debatable whether Harper will stay at catcher or move to 1B/OF to speed up his development- so Donaldson would represent a valuable piece for them. Henry Rodriguez combined with the development of Drew Storen gives them a potentially strong 8th/9th combo. And Clayton Mortenson gives them a potential 5th starter. Again, if you think that package is too light michael taylor could be thrown into the mix. But I must say, last year’s stats for taylor were so out-of-wack with his other years in the minors, that I find it hard to believe he won’t have a significant rebound next season. So, whether or not he actually will prove to be a good major-leaguer, I expect his trade value to be so much higher half way through the 2011 season, as compared to right now, that I really am as hesitant to trade him as any prospect. To me it is the equivalent to trading Suzuki at the moment, it just doesn’t make sense.
We may be able to sign these players past one season, we may not. But the point is these players, in 2011, can make use serious contenders (this would also include signing a DH, which my view is increasing becoming that it should be Manny). If Willingham, Johnson & Ramirez can help to get us to 90 wins- that will make us a much more desirable destination for free agents regardless of whether we resign these players or not. I seriously, seriously doubt that if we were coming off a 90 win season that Beltre would not take our offer if we offered the most money/years, have demonstrated that we are a strong contender and are situated in a generally desirable area (I love Oakland, obviously, people talk about it’s undesirable characteristics but a player can live in many suburbs around the bay area) all because the stadiums decrepit. Acquiring these players also saves the A’s from hitting the panic button and selling off every last spare part of the minor league system (a system which I have to believe will look much stronger next year with some prospect rebounds).
Lastly, I hope they hammer out a deal in the 11th hour for Iwak and even overpay a little to get him to Oakland. But the A’s should be able to find a fifth starter or trade for one as the season gets underway to ensure that their staff remains as one of the best.
Are there any significant downfalls to this plan that I am not accounting for? is it plausible to expect Kelly to make the switch and still be strong defensively at 3rd base?
You mention the Uggla deal
But you could just as easily look at the Holliday deal and reach the exact opposite conclusion. It’s a different market since it’s two years later, but rentals can still be expensive. Gonzalez fetched a nice little haul….Overall, it depends on the player instead of general conclusions about the rental market.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
The Marlins also dug themselves a hole by actively shopping Uggla.
Every team in the league knew Uggla wouldn’t be playing any more games in a Marlin’s uniform, so they could all lowball the hell out of Florida.
I like your idea.....
Kelly Johnson is definitely intriguing and Manny-Willingham are available so it’s not that far fetched. I wonder what exactly it would take to pry johnson away from Arizona…
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
The Nationals have Ramos and Flores as short term catching prospects
Honestly I don’t know if you can expect Johnson to make the switch to third without having any sort of growing pains. I think we need to do whatever it takes to resign Cust as DH and then send Ross, Cardenas, and a lower level prospect to the Indians for Sizemore whos value is at its lowest right now because of his injury. Then you have a starting lineup of:
Crisp – RF
Barton – 1B
Dejesus – LF
Cust – DH
Kouzmanoff – 3B
Sizemore – CF
Ellis – 2B
Pennington – SS
Suzuki – C
So that's Ben Sheets, David DeJesus and Jack Cust
I’m not seeing a pennant here.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2010 4:48 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not talking about a pennant.
But I think it’s closer than you think. If the Rangers lose Lee, the gap closes substantially. Also when you consider just how atrocious Oakland’s corner outfielders were last year, a healthy year of DeJesus and Willingham in the corners puts the A’s much closer.
Texas was still a 90+ win team without Lee
Willingham is not much of an upgrade unless he can give you 150 games, which he has yet to do in his career, and his lingering hamstring problems worry me.
Also, I’m getting worried about the Slegna with Haren giving them a whole season, and some combination of Soriano, Beltre and Crawford playing for them next year.
We need to upgrade at least 6-7 more wins, IMO, and I think a lot of pieces need to fall in place for your proposed solutions to cover that…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 6, 2010 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
No, Texas was a 90 win team with Lee, who provided ~3 WAR while he was in Texas.
The A’s gave some really bad players a lot of time last year. Replace Patterson/Gross/Carter with DeJesus. Replace Sweeney with Willingham. Replace with Sheets with anybody—Ross, Outman, Cramer, Webb. I still say it’s less of a stretch than you think.
I really don't understand the Willingham love.
He’s never had a 3 WAR season, he’s 31, and his career high is 144 games — that was 3 years ago
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
let's trade for mikev instead!
he’s good for at least 7 innings……(belches…) :)
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
pff, dude, I hit it WAY too hard last Friday
3 dogfishhead 90min IPAs
2 Plinys
a tall Negra Modelo
OOF.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
Sounds like me at the Raider-Dolphin game
except throw in some vodka-crans and Makers Mark in the sun…..oie!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Yeah, I mean usually I can drink 6 beers and it's not going to have me passing out
but when it’s 9% DFH plus 7.5% Pliny….
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
it's one of the featured 8 drafts at my main waterin' hole. i know it well.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Ya, those are serious beers!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
With the bat, sure.
but he also hasn’t been healthy enough to actually be an impact player.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
Since I can't cite this statistic enough, apparently,
the Rangers had more negative WAR last year than the A’s did.
Every team has crap players who they want/need to replace. Saying “get rid of the cruft” is the baseball equivalent of promising to cut government spending by getting rid of “waste and inefficiency.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I looked it up a while ago
Here.
It seemed awfully suspicious to me that people were citing getting rid of the Matts as some kind of major leap forward, when the team Oakland is competing with was starting Chris Davis and Justin Smoak at 1B for most of the season, not to mention a Ryan Garko cameo appearance.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Texas was 30-27 when they acquired Cliff Lee
They absolutely are not a 90 win team without him. They are a mid 80s win team. As are we if we re-sign Cust as DeJesus is such a massive upgrade over the crud we had in the COF last year, propelling us from the 81-85 (real/pythag) team we were last year.
I wouldn't say "mid 80s", but no, they're not a 90 win team without him.
Total team WAR was 91 with Cliff. Without him, it’s 88.
Ideally, yeah, total WAR would add up to the same as both pythag wins and actual wins.
Oh, and by the way, when I say “total team WAR”, I mean total team WAR + the 48 wins a replacement level team would win.
Is the 48 replacement wins a set figure?
I recall there’s been some argument of the exact level, no?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Has there been?
Hmm. I thought it was pretty standard, although now that I’ve googled around a bit, I see numbers from 48 to 52.
If you add all the WAR of 2010
and add 46 RepLv wins you get 81.7 wins for an average team.
By the way this gives us win figures for the division of
Tex 89
Oak 82
LA 75
Sea 64
by Rio on Dec 8, 2010 6:24 AM PST up reply actions
We can't assume it's 88 w/out him
Unless we know the guy who replaces him was replacement level, though…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 6, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
Scott Feldman?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Feliz is the closer, right?
He did a pretty good job as a rookie, so I doubt that they’d move him to the rotation. Their bullpen wasn’t the best with him anyways.
If they don't get Lee, they'll seriously consider it.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
this a million times this.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, I think I'm getting closer and closer to agreeing with on the "blow up the team" plan.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
with you*
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
It could be saved but not with beane playing chicken shit with beltre/crawford
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
That doesn't seem likely to change soon.
Along with the whole “cutting good players/keeping bad ones” theme.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
well yeah.
Also I remember you recently saying that im not even right about baseball very much anymore… comin around are we?
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
DFA DFA
NAO
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
When did I say this, and what was it about?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
August 9th 2010
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
Wow
Here I was thinking “recently saying” meant, like, it the past week or so.
Now it’s almost 4 months ago.
DFA remembers every comment of the last 4 months.
Holy crap, we are doomed!
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 6, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
Four months IS recently
Especially when offering up a criticism such as that. DFA has every right to pull that card out. I’d have pulled it out even after a longer stretch than that.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, I know he does
I’m being completely sarcastic.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 6, 2010 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
I have always had a fantastic memory.
Also its easy to remember something like that. There are really only so many people on here’s baseball opinion that I really respect and when one of them says that you’re not even right very much anymore, you take notice.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 8:27 PM PST up reply actions
What part do I fall in?
Keep in mind this affects your standing when I complete my hostile takeover and run the team.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
In this case mike,
you would simply fall down and we all put you in the back of your truck.
Carry on…..or stumble if you prefer. ;)
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
I see you very much like the fool in much classic literature
If you don’t look very deep all you see is the humor, but the wit is the base of the humor. Im sure you could go all statsy like some of us if you wanted to, but you have your roll and play it very well.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
Hm. That was a while ago.
What was the argument about? Reading that thread, were you arguing something about Rajai Davis? I remember disagreeing with you when you said Eric Patterson was better than him. I didn’t like the way you used small sample UZR data…if that’s the case, I stand by what I said.
I’ll rescind the not even “usually correct” part. But there are probably still a few things I don’t agree with you about.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 6, 2010 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I’ll rescind the not even "usually correct" part.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
World Series meltdown notwithstanding,
I’m still convinced Derek Holland is going to be a good MLB pitcher within a pretty short amount of time.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
as am I
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
agreed
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
This is a valid option, but why blow the team up now rather than in July or next offseason?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
There's no reason to blow the team up.
The window for this team to compete, after the lengthly emotion draining rebuild of the last 4 years, is now through the next 3-4 seasons. If Beane can’t find the pieces we need to go into 2011 with a competitive team, then we sit back and hope for a lot of development from the young guys, and try again next offseason. Let’s keep in mind that it’s still early december, and one or two signings with a solid trade will have us all singing a different tune. I’m still holding onto hope for a Magglio and Thome signing, along with Beltre crawling back to the A’s in 6 weeks when his suitors have dropped like flies. Although, not sure I would want him if he really is that set against playing in Oakland (I’m still not convinced).
No sense in blowing it all up now
We don’t even really know what we have in Anderson, Cahill, and Gonzalez. We have three young pitchers, one of whom has legit ace potential but also arm problems. The other two are either regressing or being enigmatic, respectively.
As far as other players go, Suzuki had a down year at the plate and other teams may have durability questions about him. His value is likely low. Bailey might fetch a good haul. Braden has the foot thing, but who knows how that truly affects him.
The point is that only a year or two more will tell us who these guys really are. If they suck, they suck and we have to rebuild then anyway. Those who don’t suck can traded away for prospects then. As long as there’s a CHANCE they’ll be good, though, we should be trying to improve this team for the next 1-2 years.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
I Agree
In fact, why make any more moves until the stadium issue has been resolved?
Because we have no idea when that will be?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2010 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Brewers blockbuster might be even more unlikely
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-notes-prince-marcum-greinke.html
I know we haven’t been linked much (if at all) to the brewers, but some people have brought up a Fielder/MeGeHee blockbuster as a good idea, but Heyman thinks that their Marcum acquisition will encourage them to stand pat (or even acquire Greinke?)
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 1:59 PM PST reply actions
Jane Lee's Twitter
Geren just met with media. He repeatedly declined comment on Iwakuma and FA targets, just reiterated the club’s need for a dose of offense.
Geren called Carter a DH possibility, said he could maybe split time there and the outfield. More to come at mlb.com.
When you've played this game for 10 years and gone to bat 7,000 times and gotten 2,000 hits do you know what that really means? It means you've gone 0-5,000. -Reginald Martinez "Reggie" Jackson
Also, Billy Beane will be one of the guests this evening on Chronicle Live
starting at 5 o’clock. Jason Campbell will also be featured.
Go A’s!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
What's the best solution?
Come to grips that the future cannot be accurately predicted by any statistic and that some players develop and possibly suprise in a good way. That the defeatest mindset is difficult to shake but, if it can be done, it will generally be better for one’s mental health. That the season will go on and that at least some of the games will be fun to watch. That at the end of the day, the GMing is really only done by a select few…making it so that fan-GMing should be somewhat fun and not something that one should get too terribly emotionally invested in, in a negative way.
But what's the best solution to the team's problems?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions
Ask 20 people and you'll likely get 20 different answer
Personally, I trust the front office to put out a watchable product and I really do leave it at that. But, if it were my decision, with the pieces that are out there, I’d spend the money signing Cliff Lee and see how the position players shake out. I don’t think the OF/DH spot are going to be as disappointing as many seem to think it will be. I’d also sign JJ Putz. If you’re interested in this exercise of what-if, jot down the starting rotation and the bullpen pieces to include my suggestions and tell me that that doesn’t look pretty formidable, Yeah, the rotation would have four lefties, but is that such a bad thing?
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 3:50 PM PST up reply actions
Outbidding the Yankees and Rangers seems like a pretty formidable task
When was the last time the A’s successfully acquired the #1 prospect in the market, and for that matter, when was the last time the A’s outbid the Yankees on anyone the Yankees were pursuing this vigorously?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
I can't think of a time
That doesn’t mean that it’s impossible, though. Highly unlikely, yes. But you asked and I only suggeted it as an opinion. I also stated that I’m totally cool with the organization doing what it does.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
You feel like the offense, the way it is, (bottom 5 in the league) is playoff contending?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
No, but I come to terms with it and will enjoy the season nonetheless.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 4:24 PM PST up reply actions
I'm going to root for my team nonetheless
but it sounds like you’re just giving up on the fact that the team is not in a position to win. Do you think it’s un-fanlike to hoot and holler for your team to become demonstrably better in their weak points rather than going out every year with the same weakness?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:30 PM PST up reply actions
Giving up? Or realizing that these decisions do not fall into my realm...
…or circles of influence?
Do you think it’s un-fanlike to hoot and holler for your team to become demonstrably better…
It’s totally fan-like. I’ve just moved away from that stage of fandom. I’m less of a fan now yet I can still appreciate the game, this team, and particular Athletics players and front office people.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 4:41 PM PST up reply actions
What's the point of participating in discussion if we're resigned to the fact that everything is beyond our scope of influence?
I know, I’m not the general manager of the team. I don’t get to decide whether or not Carl Crawford gets signed, or whether Chris Carter starts in AAA. That said, I do feel like I’m a member of a very important infleunce—the fans. If the fanbase repeatedly and vocally expresses disgust with the team’s moves, then they’ll change things. If they start to wonder why attendance and ratings drop, and they see that we as a whole think the front office isn’t doing their job, then things will change. As has been said, baseball is a business.
I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time cheering for a team that stinks often. In the summer of 2008, when we went through that dreadful 3-21 stretch for 30 days, I just couldn’t bring myself to watch that team every day. I didn’t turn to another team during that stretch, I didn’t front run, but watching a team play baseball that ineptly was genuinely difficult, and I felt like I was wasting my time at times. The more seasons we go through where such an outcome seems legitimate and probable makes me more angry that the front office isn’t remedying it. I don’t think I’m alone in this; as fans, we can tell the front office how we want to change things by talking about how we want to see change.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions
Do your thing, then, Killer.
I’m just offering a suggestion on coping with the disappointment of not getting everything you want under the tree. If you don’t like it, then don’t accept it.
I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time cheering for a team that stinks often.
I’ve been a fan since ’81 and a knowledgable fan since ’84. I never had a hard time cheering for this team…not even when Chris Codiroli led the team in wins.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
Not once have you ever had a time when you’ve chosen to just read a book instead of turning the game on? You’ve never opted against going to a game on a saturday because it’s july and we’re 20 games out of 1st? You’ve never become so disgusted with the team that you’ve thrown down your hat and sat back sullenly in your chair? These things stem from emotional investment, and I feel like the highs and lows are part of fandom.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
...
I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time cheering for a team that stinks often.
When I was younger — up until I was 19 — I lived in Marinez/Pleasant Hill. No matter how frustrated I was with the Athletics, I seldom missed a game on the radio and I ALWAYS cheered them on. There would be times I’d get so pissed off, that I’d go outside and throw baseballs at the garage door [completely ruining the material it was made from] or swing the bat as I lobbed pitches to myself. I’m no longer the same person. In fact, I no longer live near California and seldomly make it back there, so catching games [in person or on TV/radio] happens on rare occasions. I still enjoy following the team by Internet box scores but my fandom is just different now.
You’ve never opted against going to a game on a saturday because it’s july and we’re 20 games out of 1st?
I didn’t catch many games in person when I lived near Oakland; I’d get to about three to five a year. But there were many times the Athletics were a great many out of first place…I can’t recall it being in July, though.
You’ve never become so disgusted with the team that you’ve thrown down your hat and sat back sullenly in your chair?
Yes. I’ve had that same defeated feeling. I still would begin cheering, though, the moment runners were on and the Athletics looked like they would score. I’ve had my heart supposedly broken many times, too, when someone would not hit a sac fly to drive in the run from third with less than two outs.
These things stem from emotional investment, and I feel like the highs and lows are part of fandom.
Yes! That’s the key. I’ve stopped investing so much. And you know what I found [your mileage may vary]? I can still very much enjoy the highs. And the lows? The lows are not so sufferable for me any longer.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 5:29 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I'll have to take your word on enjoying the highs
Do you think you’d still enjoy the highs as much if you didn’t put in that level of emotional investment when you were younger?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 5:32 PM PST up reply actions
Don't get me wrong.
The highs are not quite as high as the used to be but I still do enjoy them.
Do you think you’d still enjoy the highs as much if you didn’t put in that level of emotional investment when you were younger?
Good question. No, I probably would not enjoy it as much now if I had not made the emotional investments when I was younger. And that the rub. For me, as I’ve gotten older, there have been other things that compete for my interest.
So, with that being identified, and me reflecting a bit, I can see why my post struck a wrong chord: we, I’ll assume, are at different places. And me suggesting to divest yourself some emotionally would probably rob you of developing a deep and lasting experience latter.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 5:42 PM PST up reply actions
I hear ya
I definitely think that if/when I start a family, I probably won’t be as emotionally invested, but for now as a 24 year old single male, I spend a lot of time thinking about the As.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
Ynoa. The A's outbid both for Ynoa.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
Touche
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
Well, not really
The Yankees told Ynoa to stick it after he backed out of an agreement with them. Granted, it was an illegal pre-signing day agreement, but the point is, they were no longer interested.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
well the A's got him to abandon that deal so...
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
I hear lobotomies make the whole world pleasant too.
Never have to worry about getting upset. Sounds like you should get one if this is your attitude.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
I hear lobotomies make the whole world pleasant too.
Never have to worry about getting upset. Sounds like you should get one if this is your attitude.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
The irony that is this double post...
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 6, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
im having connection issues with the wireless so its not telling me it posts until i come back to the page.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
its the companies and im still on probation.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
no idea why this is posting like this.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I'll answer this one
Sounds like you should get one if this is your attitude.
I guess I just haven’t graduated from the Offspring School of Fandom…where the more you suffer, the more it shows you really care. Right?
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
no but being optimistic about the next 10 years is going to be really lame when it all comes crashing down.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:31 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, the stories I've heard from people who've had lobotomies (secondhand; never talked to one myself)
are horrifying.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
it was not mean to be serious
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
We really need to throw whatever we can at Cleveland
and get Choo. I’m happy with this opening day lineup:
CF: Crisp
1B: Barton
LF: DeJesus
RF: Choo
DH:
2B: Ellis
C: Suzuki
3B: Kouzmanoff
SS: Pennington
My DH preference order runs: Cust, Thome, Manny, Magglio, A.Jones, N. Johnson, Carter, Guerrero, Glaus, Damon, Matsui.
I keep forgetting about Choo
I’m definitely in favor of acquiring him.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
He'd be a perfect acquisition.
Legitimate 5 WAR player, arm very, very suited to RF, still under contract for three more years. But…it’d take a king’s ransom to pry him away from Cleveland.
Cahill + Green?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
Then again, I'm less inclined to trade Cahill if we're not getting Iwakuma.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Cahill, Green, Choice, and Ross for Masterson?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
I'm estimating high because I haven't seen anything saying the Indians are shopping Choo
We’d probably have to blow them away to make them trade Choo.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
We cant trade Choice because we haven't had him for a year.
but Id do it in a heartbeat if we could.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Replace Choice with Taylor, or Cabrera?
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Cabrera was just drafted too
Taylor is not as good a prospect.. think Sweeney in the Swisher deal
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Can't he be PTBNL?
Isn’t that happened when we traded Bonderman?
nope 6 months is the longest a ptbnl can be
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
I think I'm a good judge until I see the actual trades.
I feel like I always overestimate what it would take to land a player.
Choo isn't available at all except in the minds of AN denizens.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I just literally have not heard a single shred of a rumor this entire year that Choo's available, or linking him to any other team, let along the A's.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
let alone*
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
All i heard is that cleveland was worried about manditory military service.
Not gonna happen now though.
Why wouldnt they listen to him
He only has 2 years left on his deal, and the Indians simply are not contending in that time frame.
I don't get this idea of acquiring Choo
He is awesome but why would Cleveland trade him? It just seems very unrealistic to me.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 6, 2010 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
What if WE threw in Zooks into the package...
…and then only asked for Carlos Santana in return?
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 6, 2010 6:19 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Santana > Zook as far as I'm concerned.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions
It makes sense for Cleveland to trade him.
They only have him for 2 more years and they aren’t going to contend in that time. They better extend him for 5+ soon or trade him or else his entire existence on that team would be for nothing.
And I’d trade anyone except Anderson, Gio or Braden for him. I wonder if Carter+Ross would get the job done. Or we could go all in on a blockbuster and get Grady, Masterson & Choo for Cahill, Carter, Ross, Krol & Sweeney. Grady is a FA after this season, Choo has 2 years left on his deal. Materson = Cahill. Its a little heavy to Cleveland, but coming from the A’s perspective its best to make sure its a deal the other team would take, but if Grady rebounds we’d be looking at playoffs.
They have him for three more years
Also, cue Jim Mora (again…)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That blockbuster sounds fine even if you leave Grady off
Fine for us that is. No idea how Cleveland values Cahill and Carter (that would be the key here, I think)
I'd rather drop Masterson from the deal
And make it Green, Carter, Ross, Krol, and Sweeney for Grady, and Choo. I’ve never been a big Masterson fan.
by maxmendelson on Dec 6, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions
For those interested
http://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/11898088964759553
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/mets-notes-beltran-francis.html
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
Wright under contract control for two (plus club option for 16 mil) would take a lot too
I’d say Cahill, Bailey, and Green at least.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 6, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe. I think we could throw in Kouz instead of Green
and take on one of their salary dump-ish contracts.
I misread that as Geren...
…and got excited for a moment.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Ha ha. He can be a MTBNL.
I really think that Wright is a legitimate trade candidate. What if we traded for him and Beltran. I know they would like to get rid of Beltran’s contract and he could play outfield and DH to preserve his body, which has all but disintegrated in recent years.
I did bring up Beltran in another thread
and almost put Reyes in the same conversation but decided to limit it to Beltran. But David Wright? Wow……now that would be some shit!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
He is one of the worst defensive 3B in baseball.
But one of the best hitting 3B in baseball.
hmmmm. I want him here yes, but can he play other positions?
I wouldn't go that far
He’s inexplicably put together disappointing UZRs the last 3 years, but he was pretty good before that. If healthy, I think he has the defensive tools to in fact be a pretty good 3Bman again…
Also, just a hunch, but I think Citi Field might be a big factor in his negative UZRs the last couple years…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 6, 2010 7:48 PM PST up reply actions
He career UZR is in the negatives.
Going from watching Kouz work his magic to David Wright there would bring tears of non-joy to your eyes. Historically, Wright has been no good at 3B. But he can mash like few can.
Everytime I read the title of this post, I think of the LeBron James ad.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
There isn't really a downside to the Iwakuma thing
If we don’t get him then at least we prevented other teams from getting him. If we do, I just hope we don’t overpay. I guess if you connect it to the loss of Mazzaro you could find reason for concern, but I’m not really worried about losing him.
It seems to me that the the $ amount of these Japanese player contracts are usually close to the $ amount of the posting fee. If we won with a bid of $19.1M, I think a contract in the same range over 3-4 years is in order. 4/15 was low but I think its a fair starting point. Nomura seemed to be the one that was off-base given the magnitude of the posting fee. The fee essentially tells everyone what the player’s perceived value is and the A’s were closer to that number than Nomura.
Beane may be having a bad offseason, but this particular transaction doesn’t point towards any ineptness in my opinion.
Really his only glaring mistake has been Cust and that can be MOSTLY rectified through a cheap FA acquisition or two. He might have overplayed his hand with Beltre but I understand the desire to resolve that before the arbitration deadline. He simply should have known Boras wasn’t going to have any of it. Then again, Beane might have though his offer would blow Beltre away (like the Werth offer did)… in which case he underestimated the market this offseason.
Ahem...
4/15 was low but I think its a fair starting point.
It’s also as far as the A’s went.
The monster at the end of this blog.
And it apparently pissed Iwakuma off enough that he doesn't want to continue keep talking.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I don't think we know that
The sense I get is that Nomura came back with something much more ridiculous and the A’s basically said call us when your expectations change. I have no reason to think the A’s wouldn’t budge if Nomura was negotiating in the real world.
Nomura should have come back with something like 3/23 and they should have settled in the middle. The A’s offer was at the low end of the reasonable range and Nomura wasn’t even close so the negotiations were short.
If anything,
I think one could make a case that the fundamental problems with the recent A’s offseasons have come not from misvaluing individual players (i.e. whiffing on how many WAR they’re going to provide), but from being way off about general market trends. They missed the downturn in 2008-2009 and now they’ve missed the upswing in 2010-2011. They bought high in 2008 on Ellis and Holliday, then tried to buy low this offseason on Iwakuma.
It sounds like the team just needs a better economist. (Save your jokes for the road, please.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I would agree with this
Though I think its also partly due to their needs not lining up with when the market was able to fill those needs. Market is down when they rebuild and up when they need a couple guys to put them over the top.
I agree
But I also think the contracts that go around now seem to be really high. Don’t know if they are over market rate and become albatross contract for these teams. Maybe sitting out this time and looking whats left in January to get for less money is a decent way.
by Rio on Dec 8, 2010 6:43 AM PST up reply actions
Disagree with "inept", at least on this one.
One, it’s no-risk, in the sense that it cost him nothing if no deal is worked out. Two, and more important, Iwakuma is being completely unrealistic in his money demands. I don’t think anybody could have seen that coming.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
The possibility of alienating an entire league and market of Japanese players...that's not a risk?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
You can't try to please everybody, and...
…that “risk” is minor.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Why? It seems to me that the Japanese culture is one that REALLY wouldn't like the tactic of lowballing Iwakuma
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
Was it a lowball offer?
I don’t think so. Someone else mentioned it was “the low-end of reasonable”, and I would agree with that. Maybe you’re willing to argue semantics.
Granted, the A’s did not move from that position, but Iwakuma’s expectation wasn’t even near the “high-end of reasonable”, so their position is hardly any more defensible.
Plus, I’m less concerned with the Japanese culture than I am our own. I see no need to bend over backwards and screw ourselves over culture differences that are only marginally connected to our own and our business. Hence, “minor”.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Um....wow, that's really ignorant IMO
I don’t mean racist, just ignorant. When you deal with someone, you are dealing with their culture. If you are negotiating with someone whose culture highly values honor (for example), and don’t approach it accordingly, that’s just…bad business. Or war. Or whatever you may be dabbling in at the time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 6, 2010 9:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm disppointed you see it that way.
I never intended to imply ignoring their culture completely, just that it is a lesser consideration. Are they not obligated to consider our culture as well?
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Im pretty sure they did. When we lowballed them and called them crazy, they decided that our culture wasn't one they felt like dealing with.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
well its basically what was said by reporters.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
I seriously doubt...
…that Japanese players were so offended that they will cease to want to play here… including Iwakuma (next year).
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
and yet he decided not to play in Oakland... and I don't think he will next year either
also what lenscrafters said below.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think he will play in Oakland next year, either.
In a sense, his decision is not unlike Beltre’s last year. He’s making a one-year “sacrifice” to gamble for a better payoff a year later.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
The A's have already acquired a poor reputation in Japan.
From the Japanese media’s portrayal of the events, the A’s come off as heavy handed and tactless. It’s not hard to see this negative image of the A’s adversely affecting future endeavors into the Japanese market.
Free agents already have a less than satisfactory view of the A’s here in the U.S. I guess you can say we’re just trying to be consistent across all borders.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 6, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
I can't automatically discount that this is how we're now viewed in general in Japan, but...
…this particular article doesn’t really say so. It just says the player and his people think so.
Iwakuma’s camp believed that the terms were below the pitcher’s worth and showed a lack of sincerity…The direction this portion of the thread has taken is that we have to completely give up our cultural values in order to bow to another society’s cultural values. Now we’re bordering on political correctness. Sorry, but no, cultural sensitivity is a two-way street. Of course you do what you can to accommodate, but when two cultures are vastly different there has to be compromise by both sides to meet somewhere in the middle.
Keep in mind that they wanted to come here as much as we wanted them to come here. Any obligation to be culturally sensitive is equal to both sides.
Based on what PT said, it seems that Nomura is more American-savvy that we are willing to consider. It almost seems like he’s purposely playing both sides of the cultural fence… one day “negotiating in the media” by making accusations totally unrelated to his client, and another day claiming his own cultural sensitivity.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Clarification:
I meant to say, if you were a neutral observer reading that article, you would probably think that the A’s came off as heavy handed and tactless, not that the article itself was saying that.
I think the whole cultural aspect has been overblown in this thread. We have no idea how the A’s approached the cultural divide and how it affected negotiations. It’s not so much about respect, or honor, or whatever aspect of Japanese culture the A’s were neglecting or were ignorant of. It’s more to do with the fact that people perceive them as having made an insincere attempt at negotiation.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Ok, gotcha.
And I agree the whole culture thing was way overblown.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Im not saying that the A's neglected the culture.
But that the offer which is a bad offer would be viewed as slightly more disrespectful than it would have otherwise, where it would have just been regularly disrespectful.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Yep
So much so that Matsui wants to play for us. Cultural differences or not, leverage and economics transcends all the bullshit. As for who was offended or not…do you recall some of the tweets from Don Nomura?
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 7, 2010 2:47 AM PST up reply actions
Brilliant.
Obviously, the one example of an old player who has no other options and who already spent 8 years in the league is the perfect refutation to the argument that this trainwreck has an adverse affect on future dealings with NPB players. You really do amaze me sometimes.
Nomura is an unprofessional asshat, no doubt about it. Unfortunately, I can’t say the A’s took the high road either. By lowballing the shit out of Iwakuma, refusing to increase the offer, and leaking a false report that Iwakuma was seeking a “Barry Zito offer” in a pitiful attempt to gain good PR, they came off as clueless incompetents as well.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Or should I say..."refusing to increase the offer to any meaningful level"
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Much more accurate
If Slusser’s latest is accurate (and I’m not accusing her of lying, just that her sources might be incorrect ala the Adam Dunn situation) then the A’s increased their offer from ~$15 million over 4 years to ~$17 million over 4 years.
Such largesse.
The monster at the end of this blog.
We don't know if they stayed at 4 years
It is still reasonable given the history of Japanese signings (Igawa signed for 5/20 on a larger posting fee). The deal was never going to happen even if the A’s went over $40M.
Again, if Slusser's sources are correct...
The A’s started at 4/$15 million and ended at 4/$17 million.
If you’ve got info that can refute that story then I’m willing to hear you out; otherwise her sourced story outweighs your pure speculation.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Did Slusser say 4 years?
I saw the 17 or rather 36 total. Didn’t see her mention years.
Still, the offer is fair. 4/17 isn’t going to get him here, but neither is 4/30 so who cares?
Why are you being so frustrating/insulting?
I understand the 17. I said as much. Why post an insulting thing like this when I accept the 17 premise. We offered 4/15. Then we offered ?/17. That is all I am saying.
Either you are trying to antagonize me or you really aren’t putting thought into this. Either way you aren’t doing yourself any favors.
Bullshit
You said:
“we don’t know if it was 4/17”
You in no way suggested it was 3/17.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Eh
You seemed to assume that he meant that the $17 mil part was the part we didn’t know. He didn’t specify that; he just said we don’t know if it was 4/17 which we don’t; they could’ve offered 3/17. He didn’t suggest it was 3/17, but he also didn’t suggest that the A’s didn’t offer 17 total.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Why not 2/17
Or 1/17?
The idea that the A’s would offer more money over fewer years is a sound one; it reduces their long term risk in the investment of an unknown SP.
The problem is the “reduced risk” theory doesn’t hold water when you apply it to the known 4/$15 million offer. A team does not insulate itself from risk of catastrophic suckitude by offering a player fewer dollars over a longer contract.
The A’s initial offer was a 4 year deal. They wanted Iwakuma for 4 years. They’re assesment was to risk 4 years. In that context reducing the length of service does more to harm the A’s calculations of his perceived value than the uptick in salary.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not disagreeing with your logic
I just don’t think DrDoom’s statement that we don’t know if it was 4/17 is out of line because honestly we don’t know for a fact if it was 4/17. We can strongly conjecture, but that’s the best we can do.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
I also said I saw the 17
So I told you I understood the 17 but I wasn’t sure on 4/17. Please read posts before insulting people. Still, who cares? 4/17 is fair but doesn’t get it done. 3/17 wouldn’t have gotten it done either. The A’s didn’t embarass themselves and Iwakuma’s situation is unique and was going to make it nearly impossible for anyone to sign him given the low posting fee bids.
You've made an assumption on the A's going from a 4 year offer to a 3 year offer
Without any supporting evidence and when it runs counter to the objectives of the team.
And I haven’t said a thing about the A’s embarassing themselves with their offer. I don’t understand the cultral contexts in play and am staying out of that furball.
The monster at the end of this blog.
You guys both made assumptions here
Let’s just agree that the A’s weren’t willing to offer more than $17 million regardless of how many years.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Fair enough
I don’t even know why we are arguing semantics. If grover isn’t pissed at the A’s, then I am not sure what started all this.
He did ask if Slusser said four years
to which you never responded. If Slusser said four years, I believe he would completely agree that the A’s offered 4/17. Maybe I’m wrong; that’s just how I read it.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
The doc thinks the A's played things right
I think not offering him more money on the 4 year deal was a mistake.
But the argument that the A’s went from a 4 year/15 million offer to a 3 year is in fact an argument that the A’s made an even larger error in assessing the worth and risk in Iwakuma. I’m arguing an error. DrDoom’s counter is actually arguing a larger systemic flaw.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I can accept that
Again I don’t think they went to three… I was just tossing it out there as a possibility. My main point was that even at 3/17, it wasn’t going to get done.
If the A’s actually thought 4/15 would do it then they made an error. I figured they were just starting there and were willing to negotiate. As 4/15 is at the low end of the reasonable range it makes sense for them to start there.
The thing is, there isn’t a reasonable contract that works for both parties… But the A’s were closer than Nomura in my opinion.
I acknowledge that
I am not saying I think they offered 3/17 I am saying we don’t know for sure. You responding with 100% certainty that it was 4/17. I’d rather toss out a longshot theory than to just state an assumption as fact. If I had to bet, I would bet they stayed at 4.
I still think they were closer to a fair value than Nomura was and that is all I care about.
All he said was we don't know, for a fact, that it was four years.
There’s no logic to poke a hole in because there’s no affirmative statement there.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Dec 7, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
+1
You really do amaze me sometimes.
I try. I’m glad you see the value in what I attempt to pass along ’round here. [/sarc]
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 7, 2010 4:30 AM PST up reply actions
I remember Matsuzaka and Kuroda comps
Not Zito…
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
He mentioned it in relation to Matsuzaka for context I think
I really don’t remember at this point. Someone said the name Zito along the way… It doesn’t much matter though.
Nomura said that Matsuzaka got the total equivelant of a top starting pitcher in the US re Zito.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
strongly rec'ed
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
This is true
but, as I said, Nomura negotiates like an American, probably because he spent a lot of time here. I don’t think this failure is explicable as “culture clash.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
+1
Yep. And in Don Nomura’s, it appears like he was batshit crazy. The guy seems like a flake.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 7, 2010 2:53 AM PST up reply actions
I think its pretty offensive to assume this is all about culture
Not to mention ignorant. We are all so different that we have to change everything for every culture? Logic goes out the window? That is nonsense. This had nothing to do with culture. It had to do with dollars. Our offer was low but not crazy. Their counter was insane. With the limited facts we have it is clear that Nomura was the one with a misconception of value and also was the one that acted unprofessionally… should we blame his culture?
The A’s did nothing wrong here. Nomura did plenty wrong. No one can prove otherwise.
And of course the Japanese media will protect their own. Still… I haven’t seen any negative reports myself. But would their media talking trash about Oakland be any different than our media talking trash about Oakland? Again… nothing to do with culture.
by DrDoom on Dec 6, 2010 11:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not suggesting that the A's acted insensitively
I’m saying that to overlook the significance, in general, of cultural norms/values when dealing with a culture different from yours, is naive.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They are Japanese
Not Klingon… This is a global economy and I think everyone is pretty used to dealing with dozens of different cultures… the A’s included. It doesn’t need to be brought up. This is a non-issue.
I know you aren’t trying to make an outlandish point or anything. I just think entering into the culture discussion on this forum isn’t a good idea and completely unneccesary. And I know you didn’t start it, but your post was pretty aggressive after UncleLeo’s fairly tepid post.
It must have come across a lot differently than I intended,
because I really have no horse in this race, i.e., I don’t care much on the issue. I was only trying to say that I think it’s naive (and that’s the word I should have chosen, not “ignorant,” which is too inflammatory) to think culture isn’t a factor when dealing with another culture.
But really, whatever — I don’t care! So, sorry Uncle Leo and Dr. Doom, and anyone else who was bent out of shape.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wasn't really bent out of shape
I just feel compelled to defend the casual poster here as they tend to get beaten down by a few folks with an axe to grind and a point to prove. I really felt bad for doing it in response to you cause I know you are about the most respected one here (by myself included) and that you didn’t mean to offend. I am particularly sensitive to these types of issues and the over-PCing of our own culture so maybe I jumped in when I otherwise would have just let it go since it came from you.
No harm done.
The offer seems consistent with the other contracts/posting fees
that Japanese players have previously received. I ripped this off of MLBTR, but it was pretty compelling:
Matsuzaka: signed 6 years $52M with a $51.1M posting fee
Igawa: signed 5 years $20M with a $26M posting fee
Ichiro: signed 3 years $14M with a $13M posting fee
Iwamura: signed 3 years $7.7M with a $4.5M posting fee
The A’s contract offer was similar to what they posted for Iwakuma, which seems consistent with some of these other contracts that actually got done. I wonder how Igawa is doing these days?
by Dan Bowen on Dec 6, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
the A's offered significantly less than the posting fee.
That is not a good offer.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Any word on what the other teams who bid would have been willing to pay?
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
I bet he will get a Kuroda like deal in the $30m range next year as a FA if he pitches well and stays healthy this year.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
But that's not really a comparable scenario.
Subtract the $19m posting fee and any team would have much more room to work. I would expect we would have offered more without the posting fee.
Still doesn’t answer my question about what the other bidders might have been willing to pay this year, either.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
I said that it would take a 36m commitment to get him signed
no one believed me. They basically were asking for a little bit more than that.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
If you said that, then you appear to have been correct.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Going back to another thread regarding this...
…and if the A’s did act with less-than-honorable intentions… maybe to block other teams and not that they wanted him for themselves… then maybe this makes the case to make the posting fee non-refundable. That way, if you’re going to play, you’re more apt to play fair since you have something substantial and tangible invested.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
And next year he will get that
With 1 year left, he really had no incentive to sign this year since he would lose out on a lot of money. It is likely that the lack of sincerity was on Iwakuma’s side and not ours.
Well, apparently, that is the bottom line of what they DID offer
So, you were wrong. It didn’t get him signed.
So now you’re ripped because the A’s didn’t offer ‘a little bit more than that’. And, exactly how do you know the Iwakuma camp was just asking for ‘a little bit more than that’. I don’t see that anywhere. To me, it looks like they were basically asking the A’s to completely ignore the costs of the posting fee, and give him a lot more than that, like $36 million plus the posting fee. Or more.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 7, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
No the A's offered that over four years not three like I said.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
He wanted 3/36 without the posting
So you still aren’t close. You think 3/17 would have done it? I doubt it. And why would the A’s pay that much? It wasn’t going to happen under at any dollar amount where both sides were happy.
It wasn't going to happen where both sides were happy
so the A’s shouldn’t have bid.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 8, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
Based on those numbers
Who is closer to reality? The A’s or Nomura?
Igawa is right in line with what the A’s offered (4M per year) and is probably the best comp as well and that was on a posting fee 7M higher.
You are really off base on this… the numbers are right in front of us. Nomura wanted 10-12M a year on a 19M posting fee… history says this is not going to happen and yet everyone wants to believe otherwise. Lets face reality.
Nomura was closer to reality.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 11:14 PM PST up reply actions
Please explain
Would you have been happy if we had signed him for 3/36? With 19M posting on top… That is 3/55 for a 5th starter. From the A’s standing they are paying over 18M a year for a 5th starter.
How is that close to reality?
No i wouldn't have been
which is why i was against the whole thing and was from the beginning because I knew that we would have been paying 40 m for three years.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 11:32 PM PST up reply actions
According to Susan Slusser on Twitter...
In tomorrow’s Chronicle: #Athletics upped offer but weren’t going to go over $36 million total for Iwakuma, incl. posting fee. about 1 hour ago via Twittelator
So, $36m total = $19m posting fee + $17m contract. Not out-of-line with the examples posted above, as it related to contracts being comparable to posting fees.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
if that is over four years that is light.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
So wait...
40M over 3 years. So you think 3/21 would have gotten it done with Iwakuma?
Based off the numbers I have seen, that still isn’t very close considering he can get 3/30M+ next year.
And if you didn’t want him then you should be happy. If nothing else we kept him from other teams.
I don’t understand what you are so unhappy about. Seems you got exactly what you wanted. I don’t see where the A’s screwed up here. Because some random person somewhere says we ruined our reputation in Japan? I highly doubt that. Everything is fine…
Im pissed off that Beane is acting incompetently.
Again
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Well we traded our best 5th starter and ruined our rep in Japan
which the team has spent a long time trying to build.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
2 separate things
I think Mazzarro was gone either way. And I have no reason to believe we ruined our rep with any intelligent people. I think you are just looking for reasons to hate. But to each his own…
Everybody here kept saying Mazzaro sucked anyway...
…so did we really lose anything? It’s funny how valuable a player becomes afterward.
And the whole “ruined our rep in Japan” smacks of a knee-jerk “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!” reaction.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
I thought his slider was getting to be dominant at times last year
I was always fond of Mazzaro world enough to be irrationally exuberant for Mazz. Despite his bad reputation, his insistence on correcting the enunciation of his name among other things I found endearing.
I really felt that he had a bright future...
…and would develop into a fine pitcher. I still think so.
But, I always felt in a small minority here on AN in thinking so.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Just because he wasn't that good doesn't mean he wasn't our best 5th starter with some potential to be more than that.
Why did the team spend so long trying to build a rep in Japan if it isn’t worth something.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:49 PM PST up reply actions
Oh.
It was hard to tell he had potential from the plethora of posts saying how much he sucked over the last year and a half.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
He did suck. It was unlikely he would be good. But 5th starters suck and he could have improved.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 8, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
You are ignoring your own argument unless you phrased it wrong above
You said
I said that it would take a 36m commitment to get him signed.
By your use of the word commitment, I am assuming you mean- including the posting fee. IF you meant- in addition to the posting fee, it would have strengthened your argument immensely if you had said:
I said that it would take a 36m commitment to get him signed plus the 19m posting fee, for a total of 55m
Which would be just crazy.
so, now we are left with the fact that the A’s bought a year0 no one gets Iwakuma for 2011- but may have cost the A’s his possible services in the future, and just maybe, if we believe the pretty wild Nomura, they have blackened their reputation with all of Japan-world. Not a gamble I would take, either, which means I agree with you. Pretty inept. I think protocol is always extremely important when negotiating with the Japanese, and it seems we didn’t let the air out of Nomura’s balloon in such a way to prevent a fart from sounding. Not good.
What I do take exception to is your salting your argument when it doesn’t need help. You said it would take $36M, the A’s apparently offered $36M, they were rebuffed with the rebuffer claiming to be insulted, and you are upset it didn’t happen, but were upset the offer was made in the first place.
Can’t have it both ways: either 1) you didn’t like it because it would cost too much but could be done for $36M, or 2) they screwed up because they didn’t lowballed him. Not both.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 7, 2010 5:17 PM PST up reply actions
I said you would double the posting fee over three years.
At the time the posting fee was thought to be 17m not 19. I always said three years Basically the A’s offered 36m over 4 years. Thats aHuge fucking difference. Especially when thats a year that Iwakuma is going to have to play at a cut/below market rate and hes getting up there already.
I didn’t like it because it would cost too much to get done the way the A’s were going to go about it. If the A’s agreed with me they shouldn’t have put a 19.1m bid on him. If they didn’t, they lowballed him and had no chance of getting him at that rate in addition to damaging their international reputation.
bolded to match the style of the previous poster.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:46 PM PST up reply actions
I can at least understand your beef
Unlike others who are telling me the per year amount means nothing and look at the comps and say they aren’t comps etc etc. You at least seem to understand this was a unique scenario.
So for the record, you believe he would be too expensive to sign so we should not have bid? I think this means you kind of agree with me that due to his impending free agency, it was going to be very difficult for ANY team to get him signed without a huge overpay. Don’t let me put words in yoru mouth though.
Really, Iwakuma should have let his contract demands be known before the posting process… it would have led to lower posting fees (so the Eagles probably wouldn’t let him do this), but it would have given him a chance to actually get a contract close to what he wanted.
The A’s were looking for a bargain. Iwakuma was being insincere in my opinion because he always wanted money equal to what he would get next year at the cost of an extra 19M to the A’s.
Do I fault the A’s? Only a little. Do I fault Iwakuma and Nomura? Yes… a lot. They played this about as bad as they could and acted unprofessional as well.
In the final deals above...
…do you happen to know what the initial offers were?
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 7, 2010 2:59 AM PST up reply actions
Still 2m less but they also wanted four years which makes the offer light to the point of almost being a lowball.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Hm
I don’t think that would be particularly offensive. Actually, if anything would be offensive, it’s leaking the offer (thus causing a public embarrassment to the player), not making it.
Nomura himself is, in terms of definitional “fit” to classical Japanese cultural style, more penguin than robin anyway.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I agree that leaking it probably made it way worse
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:13 PM PST up reply actions
Nomura's public reaction and accuations didn't help, either.
Enough blame to go around on all sides.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
No this one is squarely in Beanes lap
to think that the A’s would sign him to a contract that was even worth the posting fee is silly. The take it or leave it offer was a mistake. To leak it to the media, which Beane did, to preemptively demonize Iwakuma was stupid and killed the deal.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 10:39 PM PST up reply actions
You condone Nomura's tactics when he made his own media statements...
…where he accused our interest in Beltre was only a PR move? What did that have to do with his client? How did that help negotiations in a positive way? Was that not his own attempt at “demonizing”?
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
all after beane leaked it
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 11:24 PM PST up reply actions
Your avoidance of the direct question...
…leads me to believe that, yes, you condone Nomura’s tactics. Beane’s social and negotiating faux pas cleared everyone else’s conduct forever after
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Do I condone it? No. Do they Matter? No.
the deal was already dead at that point.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
You know Beane leaked stuff?
What did he leak? How do you know? Nomura tweeted all the comps and details. Where are you getting your facts?
because Nomura isn't going to say that he wanted Zito money... thats just stupid.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Nomura confirmed he mentioned Zito
It is likely neither Nomura or Beane leaked Zito before then… someone lower on the totem pole did and I would guess neither side was pleased about it. Or it could have been a third party with knowledge of Iwakuma in general.
The A’s had nothing to gain by leaking it so early in the process and in fact it ended up being damaging to both sides as Nomura went on his twitter tirades. The A’s like to keep quiet on these things and tend to be pretty disciplined.
Why are we all so quick to not only assume our front office is stupid but also unprofessional? Why am I defending the A’s against unsubstantiated claims on an A’s message board?
As a comp for Matzusaka... did you not read the story?
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
I only said mentioned Zito, which he did
It is clear that Nomura didn’t mean it as a direct comp. Though he clearly wanted to bring up big dollar amounts to help his client. Zito and Matsuzaka have little to do with each other and little to do with Iwakuma so it just adds fuel to the Nomura is a wacko theory. Why is anyone on his side in this?
Zito and Matsuzaka have a ton to do with each other.
Honestly if you don’t realize that you really shouldn’t be having this conversation because you have no credible understanding of whats been reported of the negotiations. The total of Masuzaka’s contract and posting was on par with the top SP that season Zito. Nomura was making the argument that Iwakuma shouldn’t get penalized for playing in Japan (like the A’s comp Colby Lewis) and should get what a very good starting pitcher (their comps were Kuroda and Jason Schmit with LAD) . Its a very reasonable argument for his side to make.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:55 PM PST up reply actions
But Matzusaka was way better and younger in Japan
So to seek what he was getting is way above reasonable. And the Schmidt comperison tells me that even your 3/36 guess would have not get it done. (I think he wanted Schmidt money without posting fee)
by Rio on Dec 8, 2010 7:10 AM PST up reply actions
I believe the top Japanese FA is a step below the top US FA
I don’t think that is a stretch. Yeah Zito kinda sucks and Matsuzaka used to be be kinda good, but relating the two doesn’t bring a lot of value to the discussion. In the end, Matsuzaka got less than Zito as he should. I guess there is a distant comp in there, but that has nothing to do with Iwakuma.
Which brings me to my main point. If Matsuzaka is a comp for Iwakuma then the A’s should have offered 6/20M based on the 19M posting. Let us assume that the A’s know this is low due to the free agency thing and they up the offer to 6/30M, setting a new precedent for the relationship between posting fees and contract amounts. I think we all know that wasn’t going to fly with Iwakuma and in fact it was Iwakuma who wanted less years than Matsuzaka, Igawa and Ishii (who are the best comps and who all got paid an amount similar to their posting fee over 4-6 years).
So Matsuzaka isn’t a comp that helps Nomura’s case and he is stupid for mentioning it as it only puts him in a deeper hole. And he is even more stupid for mentioning Zito for any reason. It makes even less sense than the A’s using Colby Lewis as a comp.
What source is being used that the Oakland FO leaked this information?
I thought the leak was squarely on the shoulders of Nomura?
Without going back and researching...
…I recall that something was leaked early on. It has always been assumed it was Beane/the A’s, but we don’t really know for sure that is the case.
Then, Nomura came out with his utterly ridiculous crap… and it all spiraled downward from there.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
The A's NEVER comment on FAs in any way
I’m sure it wasn’t Beane/the A’s who leaked anything.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 7, 2010 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
They never comment directly.
We do get inside info from time to time that proves to be accurate, and it has to come from somewhere.
That said, if they did not comment here either… which is entirely possible… then that would indicate that it was NOT Beane’s/the A’s failing or bad judgment that pissed off Nomura and Iwakuma… so other’s indignation would be misplaced.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
Even if it was from another person inside the A's
It could have been a misinterpretation of the comperison by that person since Nomura has used Zito. So to accuse the A’s of intention in this case is wrong I think.
by Rio on Dec 8, 2010 7:14 AM PST up reply actions
They were American sources according to Slusser.
Also what the hell would the motive have been for Nomura to leak that he was making outrageous demands? He has none. Whats Beane’s motive? To cover his ass and save face.
Ill always subscribe value to people trying to cover their ass over someone who has a disincentive to do something.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
and yet there was Nomura all over twitter looking like an idiot and arguing with people who replied to him.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
oh agreed. Nomura was an idiot. But it was after the deal blew up so who cares.
If Jane Quan wants to argue with people on twitter after the BRC says the A’s can move to SJ, does it make her the reason why the A’s moved? No. Does it make her an idiot? Yes. Just like Nomura.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 8, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
What Beane overestimated was his desire to play here
If he REALLY wanted to, Iwakuma could have had a salary equivalent to his NPB salary plus pitching in the most elite of professional baseball leagues. What’s more, he would be pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in front of an above-average defense. If he did well, he could parlay that into a larger contract in 4 years.
The whole point of posting anyway is to have ultimate leverage and basically be able to say “take it or leave it.” Why shouldn’t Beane do that?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2010 12:14 AM PST up reply actions
I think the offer was more than fair
So it didn’t work out…take that 19 million and put it towards another target that actually wants to come and play in Oakland ( hello Godzilla! )……which of course is proving more difficult by the day in the rest of Slusser’s article
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
why would you think it was fair? the player was getting ~ $20m less than he will get next year while forcing him to work for next to nothing for another year.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
That Iwakuma wanted to post this year is on him
If I was him, I would have just waited, too. Why sign for so low when the an MLB can just pay you the money (instead of your NPB team) next year?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2010 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
No harm in testing the market
But it sure looks like him signing anywhere this year was unlikely from the beginning based on the facts as we now know them.
I guess working for 4 million per year is leaving folks a little short these days, eh?
I’d love to work for nothing if that was the case…..
At any rate, the A’s need to focus on the next move because we’re all getting a little antsy around here.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Next to nothing?
Now, there’s some hyperbole. LOL!!!
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
its a 300k raise to move across the world... yeah thats next to nothing for a professional athlete
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
Your phrasing suggested total contract, not just increase.
Billy Beane... What have you done for me lately?
who cares about the total contract? He would see like 40% of it
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 8, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions
Twins are offering Nishioka
a deal roughly similar to what the A’s offered Iwakuma.
And they bid 14 million less on Nishioka than the A’s did on Iwakuma.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
That isn't what it says
That deal looks to be smaller. Its large relative to the posting fee (50% larger if the fee was about $6M), but I don’t think it proves anything relative to Iwakuma.
The Twins are going to pay a guy roughly the same yearly average the A's were offering to Iwakuma.
Iwakuma is a better player and seen as such by the market, and especially by the A’s who bid 19 million dollars on him, 14 million more than what was perceived as Nishioka’s worth.
Is it any wonder Iwakuma’s pissed off about the deal the A’s are offering him?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Nope it's clearly a lowball offer
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2010 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
Good call on the "people will respect you more if you're upfront with them" bit.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I think this especially true across cultural barriers.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 6, 2010 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
Check out the Japanese signings above
Our offer was in line with that… On the low end, but clearly in the ballpark. A good starting point. What are the A’s supposed to do when they come back with 3/45?
We opened with a total amount of $34M over 4 years. That is nearly $9M a year. Does anyone really think that Iwakuma is worth much more than that? I could see about $10M max and I have no reason to believe the A’s wouldn’t have gotten there if negotiations were normal… but they weren’t normal… Nomura went off the deep end and wanted the A’s to spend $60M+ on an unproven pitcher.
The problem is that Iwakuma can sign for 3/36 next year easily so it is hard to negotiate against that. It is likely that he never intended to sign for anything less and when his posting fee came in at only $19M, everyone should have realized this was going to be difficult… impossible even.
This was never going to happen… because Iwakuma never wanted it to happen. And he is probably right to wait til next year. His team on the other hand will lose out.
It may have been a good starting point...
but ultimately it’s still pretty much where the team ended up (final offer: 4.25 million yearly). It was a negligible increase.
There’s only so much of the posting fee you can deduct into what you’re willing to offer the Japanese player before your offer starts to look ridiculous. If the A’s didn’t want to pay Iwakuma more than a marginal increase over what he made in Japan, and less than that of a salary of a 5th starter, then they never should have gotten into the bidding in the first place. They were the ones who chose to bid 19 million dollars for him; they were the ones who apparently valued him as much more than a 5th starter. You can’t blame Iwakuma for thinking that the A’s valued him that highly, and therefore would be willing to pay him as such. But the A’s thought they could lowball the shit out of him. Naturally, people got pissed off.
I’ve looked into this issue before and I’m already well aware of what happened previously with posted players. I was one of the few to think that Iwakuma would still get signed after the initial reports of the breakdown in talks, cause I thought the A’s would have the sense to increase their offer to around 6 million per year (for the pitcher). I still maintain that a 20 million offer or a 3/18 would’ve gotten the deal done. The A’s ended up not offering anything close to that.
The rest of your post about Iwakuma not actually wanting to come is unsubstatiated speculation and quite honestly, completely false. Posting a player who didn’t really want to come is a huge issue of bad faith and if something like that gets out, it would heavily strain relationships between NPB and MLB. The posting system benefits NPB clubs tremendously. Doing anything to endanger that, such as posting players who don’t actually want to sign, will just lead to smaller bids from suspicious MLB teams, which of course, means less money for the NPB clubs. And NPB clubs stand to gain a huge amount of money (relative to their revenues) from posted players.
Similarly, bidding for a player and coming across as not having honest intentions of signing him is quite a case bad faith as well….
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Could you do us all a favor
As you’ve already done the research, would you mind posting a comment that shows the contracts other Japanese FAs received in addition to fees posted to their home team? I’m under the impression that previous signings (such as Dice-K and Ichiro) recieved contracts that totaled as much if not slightly more than the posting fees surrendered to their Japanese team. Am I mistaken in this impression?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Scroll up
Best comp is Igawa who got 5/20M on a 26M posting if those numbers are correct. Our offer was relatively better than that.
Also Matsuzaka was about 50M/50M
But was for SIX years! Our offer is right in line with the ratios of those 2 pitcher deals.
Only Iwamura got significantly more than the posting fee and that is because (like with the Twins) the posting fee was so small that there was probably more room.
There are no examples of a contract that is significantly larger than the posting fee when the posting fee is over 6M.
I didn't ask for a single comp
I asked for a thorough history of posted Japanese players.
Ichiro posted at $13.125 million. He signed for 3 years/$14.08 million which included a $5 million signing bonus. It also included ~$7 million in deferred (with interest) monies. These deferred monies were supplimented by performance bonuses that paid him $400K for every 200, 250, 300, 350 and 450 PA in 2001 (a season in whick he had 738 PA) for an extra $2 million. He earned $600K per for achieving those same levels in 2003. Basically, Ichiro earned about $20 million on his first contract with Seattle and we haven’t even talked about perks yet!
Now, Igawa also had a bonus package that would have earned him $500K a year based on IP marks. I’m willing to assume something similar would have been available to Iwakuma.
Dice-K didn’t an IP incentive clause but he also signed for 6 years/$52 million including a $2 million signing bonus after a $51.1 million posting fee.
Now… what about Irabu? Nomo? Matsui?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Feel free to look them up
So far the facts here support the A’s offer. Onus is on those that disagree to find pitcher contracts that show otherwise.
Also the A’s used Lewis as a comp too… So far that is 3 pitcher contracts (including Matsuzaka) in line with the A’s offer and 0 in line with what Nomura asked for. Let’s pick this up when someone has three contrary comps…
The facts do not support the A's
In fact, in 2 of the 3 cases I discussed the MLB team offered a total package that was greater than the posting fee to get the contract signed. If further research showed that there are another 10-12 cases (or however many there are) where the MLB team signed the players to contracts whose total value exceeded the posting fee then your Igawa comp would be the outlier. And expecting Iwakuma to sign an outlier contract is not an easy argument to make.
Furthermore, I’m NOT arguing that Nomura’s counter-offer is the deal that should have been signed. I’m suggesting that an A’s offer with a total value greater than the $19 million posting fee would have gotten the deal done.
And it doesn’t matter that the A’s used Colby Lewis as a comp. He didn’t require a posting fee. Wouldn’t it be more relevant to compare Iwakuma to players in a similar financial situation?
That would be “Yes”.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm just looking at pitchers
Hitters and pitchers carry different risks. Igawa compares favorably for the A’s. Matsuzaka was slightly more than the posting fee but it was over 6 years so also compares favorably.
You have what to compare that too? Ichiro? He got a little more but is a hitter and this was years ago. Iwamura? So small it hardly compares.
Yea, the A’s could have offered more, but Iwakuma wasn’t worth it to them. We should be happy they didn’t offer more. So the only remaining questions is, was their offer insincere or insulting? Based on the facts the answer is obviously no.
I think you have a very unique definition of "favorably"
I also think I asked lenscrafters do post the legwork he said he had already done because more information, more samples of posted contracts to compare would add insight to the discussion.
I assure you that at this point I don’t expect you to offer insight into this topic.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So let me get this straight
Igawa doesn’t compare favorably? Please explain yourself. A similar offer to Igawa in Iwakuma’s case would be 5/16. So the A’s offer of 4/15-17 looks pretty good. I do realize it wasn’t going to get the job done, but that is because of Iwakuma being a FA next year, not because the Japanese comps say the trend is to pay double the posting fee over 3 years. What point are you even trying to make?
Matsuzaka gets a similar contract as his fee over 6 years. So signing Iwakuma at 6/20 is a much better offer by your logic. You do realize how silly that sounds right?
I am not offering insight. I am drawing logicaly conclusions based on facts. No insight needed… just common sense. You are crossing your arms and pouting with nothing to support your claim that those two contracts aren’t in line with our Iwakuma contract.
I am still waiting for a contract for a guy with 1 year left in Japan that was in line with what Nomura was asking for (at least double the posting fee). I am sticking with the idea that no one was going to sign Iwakuma this year because it makes no sense financially for anyone involved but his team in Japan.
Please stop arguing with me until you bring something to the table.
If we had 100 examples to look at...
And 99 of them showed the player receiving a contract equal too or larger than the posting fee then the 1 contract that paid a player less than the posting fee is not an apt comparison to Oakland’s negotiations with Iwakuma. In that situation we should expect the A’s to follow the more common path in their negotiations.
The monster at the end of this blog.
We do? You are just making stuff up now.
I see 2 examples… and both show the A’s offer was fair. Show me 1 pitcher from Japan with a contract that looks much different and I will agree that the A’s might have lowballed. There is a good chance you might find one… I am just going by the evidence presented here. Please enlighten us all.
I do agree their offer was modest and their posting fee excessive. Insincere or insulting? Not at all. Comps are on their side but with 1 year left in Japan comps really didn’t matter to Iwakuma.
What is your point in all this anyways? Did you want us to pay him $10M+ per year? Do you think the A’s screwed themselves for all future Japanese players somehow? Rather than nitpick the comps, I would rather discuss the implications you are inferring.
People
Look up “posting system” on Wikipedia. It contains every post by a Japanese team, including whether the player drew bids, whether the team concluded a contract with the player, and the amounts involved.
Yeesh.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Can you publish the link for us?
My fingers aren’t that close to the “w” key right now.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You weren't supposed to notice that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Could you click that for me?
My wrist is tired.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
thanks
The A’s offered contract is clearly an outlier (low) when viewed in this light.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 10, 2010 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Misread the "If"
My apologies… still I see 2 pitcher contracts. I don’t understand what you are saying.
Using an outlier to establish the basis of "fair" is a mistake
In this example, with the outlier working in the team’s favor, it would have been a boon if the player had signed the contract.
If the outlier was A-Rod’s original 10 year/$250 million contract with Texas, then establishing that figure as the “fair” price would be a detriment to the team.
Put another way… if you cloned Iwakuma 100 times over and 98 of those clones landed 4 year/$24 million contracts while 1 clone signed for 2 years/$6 million it would be a stretch to conclude that the 100th clone should sign for 2 years/$6 million as fair market value.
The monster at the end of this blog.
We have very few comps to go off of
I am not saying what you seem to think I am saying. Igawa is not an outlier. It is the closest comp. Matsuzaka is also a comp.
Ichiro and Iwamura are secondary comps.
The 2 closest comps say that the contract should be equal to or less than the posting fee over 5-6 years.
The 2 secondary comps are for hitters and indicate that 3-4 years at a little over the posting fee has been done.
Based on these comps (which is all we have unless we find a new one), the range of likely Iwakuma offers would seem to be 3-5 years and a total value of 15M-24M or so.
4/15 is low, I agree, but not laughably so. Nomura wanted 10-12 a year not including the posting fee.
The A’s were in the comp range and Nomura wasn’t. It is possible that 3/24 would have gotten it done, but why must the A’s go to the max possible comp to save face?
All of this is colored by the fact that Iwakuma can sign next year for something in the range of 10M+ a year and with his choice of teams (ie not Oakland)…. Because of this I doubt even 3/24 would have done it (not that we want to spend 43M on the guy anyway). Why would we want the team to set an all new precedent in Japanese player negotiations?
Were the A’s unwise to even bother at all? Perhaps, but I contend that nothing was lost in all of this. The A’s apparently made it clear they were still interested. If they really offended everyone involved do we think they would have said that? My guess is everyone is fine and no one’s feelings got hurt and that negotiations were a lot more civil than we are making them out to be… in spite of Nomura’s antics. I am sure he is more worried about his reputation than the A’s are worried about theirs.
The real losers in this are the Eagles. And don’t we have a scouting agreement with them? If we really cost them millions of dollars through an insincere offer wouldn’t they be the first to do something about it?
Just cause the A's say it is a comp doesn't make it so
We do need more info…
Which is why I asked lenscrafter to provide said info.
The monster at the end of this blog.
And he did
I am now of the opinion that comps do not apply because of his impending free agency. Using comps you get to the A’s offer. But we all know that it makes no sense for Iwakuma to accept this offer.
But we also know that he isn’t worth much more than 10M a year. So What contract would have worked for both sides? There isn’t one. He shouldn’t have been posted. The A’s shouldn’t have posted a fee as high as 19M given the special circumstances, but no harm was done in doing so.
The whole thing is a head-scratcher. Makes me wonder if we had a deal set up with the Eagles for some money on the side.
nomo not posted
retired from Japan baseball. Itl Free agent
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Sorry for getting to this so late....
A brief history….
The posting system was developed in 1997…after the success of Hideo Nomo, Japanese clubs thought, “holy shit! We could earn a lot of money off our players!” The posting system was designed to expedite the way to MLB for Japanese players, give MLB clubs a clear path to those players, and compensate NPB clubs heavily in the process. As a matter of fact, our own Don Nomura was heavily involved in the creation. Since then, the posting system has been relatively successful. The only ones who don’t benefit as much are player agents, who don’t earn as much as they would if they had the opportunity to market their client on the open market.
Anyways….
There have been 15 uses of the posting system. 7 players got MLB contracts. 3 got minor league contracts. And 3 were not bid on at all. 1 is still being worked on (Nishioka and the Twins)
As far as I know, Iwakuma was the only one who did draw a bid, an offer of a MLB contract, but did not sign.
The players were got major league contracts (with the help of cots):
Daisuke Matzusaka 51 million posting fee, 6/52 contract, 2 million signing bonus, total contract value can match 60 million (top 3 Cy Young voting, MVP voting, etc), full no trade clause, shitload of perks
Kei Igawa 26 million posting fee, 5/20 contract, performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 180, 190, 200 & 210 IP
Ichiro Suzuki 13 million posting fee, 3/14 contract, 5 million signing bonus, full no trade clause, shitload of other perks
Kaz Ishii 11 million posting fee, 4/12 contract, 1.5 million signing bonus, a shitload of other perks
Akinori Iwamura 4.5 million posting fee, 3/8 contract
Akinori Otsuka 300,000 posting fee, 2/1.5 contract
Shinji Mori 750,000 posting fee , 2/1.5 contract
Your impression that posted players generally received a total contract that matched or exceeded their posting fee is correct. It would be reasonable to conclude that a contract that would’ve lead to a Iwakuma signing would’ve totaled 19 million or more, bluster on both sides notwithstanding. As Iwakuma is comparable to top posted players (he’s viewed as better than Igawa and is probably the second best pitcher posted under the posting system), it’s likely that he would require a ~3 million signing bonus, performance bonuses that push his contract value well over 20 million, perks (housing, interpreter, round trip air tickets, etc) comparable to what the other Japanese players received, etc. I don’t think a full or even partial no trade clause would’ve been required…but the A’s would likely have to make up some of that into the total contract value.
It’s clear from the onset, the A’s, and their pathetic 15 million take it or leave it total offer, didn’t meet the criteria. And if the A’s were such penny pinchers that they only increased their total offer 2 million by the end of negotiations, I have serious doubts about their ability to match the secondary demands of a top Japanese posted player (the signing bonus, performance bonuses, perks, etc).
The A’s either misread what was demanded of them in this market, or they were ill equipped and never should’ve gotten into the bidding in the first place.
I see from the rest of the thread that the hangup is over Igawa’s 5/20 contract. I don’t see the hangup at all. Igawa is a lesser pitcher and still received a 20 million total package, not counting performance bonuses. Iwakuma is the second best pitcher in Japan currently and definitely would’ve required the same. People are making such a big deal about the average yearly salary that they’re completely ignoring the contract length. 5 years is a huge commitment to a Japanese pitcher. It raises the value of the overall contract to the player.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 7, 2010 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Damn, I hope that list of players is still readable.
I didn’t list all the stuff under perks cause I thought it would fudge things up…guess it was too late for that.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Good post
If we look at the upper end deals, the contract lengths are 5-6 years. So if the A’s offered 5/20, with a signing bonus and perks would that have been fair? If 5/20 is fair, then why isn’t 4/17? If the A’s offered 4/17 I would assume that they would have taken 5/20… spreads out the accounting for the fee over another year too. But Iwakuma wanted 3 years. So based on the comps he should have expected 4-5M per year, maybe 6M if its a short deal (though this would go against the pitcher comps above). We are still talking about 3/12-18. That would not have gotten him to sign.
The fact is, Nomura wanted something in the range of 3/36 which is not supported by any of the comps you posted. He wanted this because he thinks he can get it next year. Maybe he can and maybe his situation is so unique that comps don’t apply.
But if we are going to argue a point using comps then that point must be that a 5/20 deal is fair. So how does this tell us the A’s are idiots?
You are completely missing the point.
Please read my last paragraph carefully.
The Yankees got Igawa to accept a total offer below his posting fee because they were willing to offer 5 years. 5 years to a pitcher is always a boon for the pitcher and a huge risk for the team. So while the total monetary value of the contract is lower than expected, the overall value of the contract is still high. The A’s contract offer, both less in years and total monetary value, is inadequate in comparison.
I’ve maintained all along that a 20 million package would’ve gotten it done. Your continued focus on the average salary per year and Igawa’s contract while ignoring total package value and years is your error. 5/20 is irrelevant because the A’s never offered a contract that came close to that value (and by that I mean overall value in terms of years and dollars, not average per year value). Please stop assuming 4/15 or 4/17 is close just on the basis of average salary per year.
Nomura started off 3/36 because he thought it wasn’t too unreasonable an opening bid. Dice K got both more years and higher total package (52 million). Nomura understands that his client is very good… on a tier below Dice-K but above Igawa. Hence, he demanded what he demanded, a contract with a total value between those two contracts’ total value. Unless he is a blithering idiot, it can be assumed that that was his opening demand, not final demand, and he was willing to go below that. Of course, then the A’s went to the media, leaked the stupid “Barry Zito offer” rumor, and pissed everyone off. We’ll never know how negotiations would’ve gone differently if the A’s hadn’t done that.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
And just to add...
Not to speak for lenscrafter, but if the A’s had offered 4 years/$20 million and Nomura had stuck to his 3/36 demand I doubt either one of us would have been upset with Oakland not signing the player.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 7, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yup
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Wait a minute...
We are arguing over $3M? Why?
So 4/17 is crap and the A’s are stupid. 4/20 is fair and everything is cool? Really? The comps say 5/20 might work too. Iwakuma wanted 3 years so should we have offered what? 3/20? That is $39M for 3 years of Iwakuma… Do we want that? Our offer was pretty darn close to what the comps show… low but within striking distance. Nomura never got in range at all as far as we know.
The fact is none of these contracts were likely to sign him and we are basing our analysis on an initial negotiation that didn’t go very far because Nomura wanted way too much. Is your beef with me or the A’s? I don’t even know any more.
This is what grover said.
if the A’s had offered 4 years/$20 million and Nomura had stuck to his 3/36 demand
Obviously, this implies that Nomura is indeed crazy and there’s no further room for negotiation.
I’m quite sick of you either intentionally or unintentionally misconstruing and misreading things. This will be my last post in this thread.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 7, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't disagree with him
I’m not sure what you are implying here. I agree 4/20 is fair. I agree if Nomura doesn’t budge from 3/36 he is crazy. My only quibble is rage from you and grover over the difference between 4/17 and 4/20. Don’t you think your reaction is a little excessive?
It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism. I have a neutral to slightly favorable view of our management and see this through that prism. We both see the same thing. My reaction is, “meh.” Your reaction seems to be, “screw those bastards for lowballing him by 3M.”
All I am doing is trying to get you guys to chill and realize nothing is that screwed up here. We don’t have egg on our face.
My prism is based on objectivity
And I feel that management should treat it’s people fairly. Based on precident, it is my opinion that 4 years/$20 million constituted a “fair” offer from Oakland. Any 4 year deal that included a lower overall dollar value than $20 million did not constitute a “fair” offer.
I don’t know if Iwakuma would have ultimately signed a “fair” deal with Oakland. All I know is he was never offered the chance.
That is a failure on Beane’s part.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I agree with all of that except the last part
We can agree to disagree though. I just like Beane more than you do.
What was he offered then grover?
Slusser leaves it open to be as high as 4/20 but doesn’t offer specifics.
+1
It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism.
Yes; this! It has about four years since I used a signature. I am going to start using the quoted text above. I’d add the rest but I actually view the management completely favorably.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 7, 2010 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
this should really be turned shit brown.
grover and lenscrafters defend Beane all the time.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
So, the difference between 4/17 and 4/20 is so extensive
that by one standard Beane is a moron and by the other he’s totally capiche?
Now who’s splitting hairs over a few million?
Lenscrafters is completely wrong about the value of years. More years is NOT valuable to a player (well, unless he somehow couldn’t negotiate an exemption from the reserve clause, which has never been a problem before). Certainly not to one in Iwakuma’s situation, where a 5-year deal makes him 34 when it expires as compared to 32. More money over fewer years is far superior for the player. Iwakuma would have to be nuts— like, grade A certifiably insane— to take 5/20 over 3/17. Even relative to 4/17 it’s a very weak offer.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If 3 million is the difference between a signing and a non signing
then yes, Beane absolutely is a moron for not ponying up the 3 million.
More years is NOT valuable to a player
Probably the first time I’ve ever heard this. You’re right. Adrian Beltre rejecting 3 years in favor of 1 to rebuild his value is totally comparable to a pitcher rejecting a 5+ year deal. I’ve yet to see any examples of pitchers rejecting 5 or 5+ year deals in favor of 2 or 3 year deals, unless the money was vastly different.
Certainly not to one in Iwakuma’s situation, where a 5-year deal makes him 34 when it expires as compared to 32. More money over fewer years is far superior for the player. Iwakuma would have to be nuts— like, grade A certifiably insane— to take 5/20 over 3/17.
Good thing no one’s actually made that argument. Save your usual bluster for someone who actually cares.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I can't really figure out what your argument is, other than some utterly speculative statements about what Iwakuma would or wouldn't have accepted
Years in a contract are most certainly not valuable to a player. They are, in fact, the very consideration given by the player in return for a guaranteed payment schedule from a team. Saying that years are valuable to a player is like saying that part of the value of owning a $2000 laptop is that you paid $2000 for it.
Teams don’t offer long-term, very low salary deals to players in normal situations (i.e. excluding the special case of pre-free-agency guaranteed contracts) because they know that a player would be loony to accept it. It’s pointless to make the offer. Of course you haven’t seen any examples of it. If a team trusts a player to hold it together for three years and not four, then they’ll offer three years. Offering four at only a very small bump in overall guaranteed salary would be pointless for both team and player.
When players say they want more years, what they really mean is that they want more years at no discount, or a small discount, from their yearly salary. What they are really saying is that they want more guaranteed money.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Right.
I’m not disagreeing with any of that. I’m not sure why you think I disagree or don’t understand any of that. The entire premise is that the A’s either didn’t offer enough money per year to justify the short term contract or they did not offer enough total money to justify the number of years they wanted.
Now, I raised the possibility that an Igawa type deal would’ve got it done since, for whatever reason, he signed a deal that was for a lot of years but not for a lot of money, especially in relation to the posting fee. Incidentally, this directly refutes your little rant about how baseball players never accept being dinged money-wise for years. I have no idea why Igawa did it. And I have no idea if Iwakuma would have done it, but personally, I’m leaning yes. I never said I knew for sure. But the A’s certainly didn’t offer it.
You can disagree with that premise if you want, but I have no idea why I’m “completely wrong” in any way. In any case, I’m quite sick of wasting time on a player who’s no longer relevant to this team and a discussion that’s become too convoluted to follow.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 7, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
Because Igawa sucked and the posting fee was PR for NYY?
Now, I raised the possibility that an Igawa type deal would’ve got it done since, for whatever reason, he signed a deal that was for a lot of years but not for a lot of money, especially in relation to the posting fee.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
No one knew Igawa sucked that much at the time.
He wasn’t viewed as good as Iwakuma is now but he was good enough that I remember the second, third place bids being 15+ million for him.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 7, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Igawa wasn't even that good in Japan.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
Jason Schmidt
. I’ve yet to see any examples of pitchers rejecting 5 or 5+ year deals in favor of 2 or 3 year deals, unless the money was vastly different.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
He had a 5 year offer on the table besides the Dodgers three year offer? News to me.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 7, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
IIRC... that was a while ago though.
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
Totally capiche?
I haven’t heard that turn of phrase before.
You like your hyperbole so sure… I guess you could say that if you like Paul. I’ll leave the battle of the years discussion for you and lenscrafters to hash out; except to point out that a 34 year old Iwakuma would probably love to receive a 5 year deal from a team. As would most 34 year old (or older) ballplayers.
What I am saying is that $3 million is the difference between offering Iwakuma a fair contract as a final offer vs. something demonstratively less-then-fair. I find it hard to fault Iwakuma for not accepting a less than offer contract offer from the A’s. Just as I’d find it hard to fault Beane if he offered a fair deal to Iwakuma only to have the pitcher turn it down.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So, $18,999,999 is "inept"
but $19,000,001 is impossible to fault? I don’t get that. You’d have a better argument if you were claiming that the offer was unethical, but “inept”? No.
Some wires clearly got crossed here
a 34 year old Iwakuma would probably love to receive a 5 year deal from a team
because I didn’t say anything in that post about what contract Iwakuma would get at the end of his initial deal with the A’s. (No one’s going to give him 5 years at that point, not unless he’s won like three Cy Youngs or something.)
What I’m saying is that he has great reason to want to hit MLB free agency at age 32 rather than at age 34, even if it means leaving some fairly significant guaranteed money on the table right now.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Fair is foul and foul is fair...
Wait.
Never mind.
No wires got crossed Paul. Your original counter-argument made no mention of the age in which a player would be signing a contract… a longer contract could entice an older player than a shorter termed deal because of the guaranteed security it provides. I was merely pointing out that the value associated with the length of a contract can change over the course of a player’s career. I’m not saying your point is wrong; it’s just not as absolute as you made it seem.
By the way, if you can’t make the distinction between a $2 difference in suggested retail value and $3 million then can I borrow a quarter million? And I thought your mangling of capiche was bad…
The monster at the end of this blog.
A 34-year-old might be more inclined toward taking a deal which included more guaranteed money
vice a deal which was shorter but included less guaranteed money, yes. I.e. a 30-year-old might take a deal that was 3 years and $30M whereas a 34-year-old might prefer one at 4 years and $36M.
I’m not sure how this is apropos of anything though. Iwakuma is 29 and will think about it like a 29-year-old does, which is to say, he will probably prefer the higher rate salary rather than a larger total guarantee over a longer period.
Sure, you can have a quarter million. Can I give it to you in the form of this bridge I’ve been meaning to sell off at some point?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Real estate would be awesome!!!
You are probably correct in Iwakuma’s instance about the length of contract issue. However, your initial salvo which referenced a player paints a more broad picture. I thought it relevant to point out that when discussing a player the importance of contract length can vary.
Yes Paul, sometimes size matters.
The monster at the end of this blog.
You are completely missing the point
Please read my posts carefully.
We both agree a $20M package would have been fair, right? Ok good.
It was Iwakuma that wanted 3 years. Please read that again. The A’s wanted more. Your argument about years is moot and in fact the opposite is true here. Your contention that he would have taken 5/20 but not 4/17 or that the A’s wouldn’t have found common ground if it was that close is strange. I think everyone knowns neither contract would have won him over.
You made a point about the contract size being relative to the posting fee size and then you go and undermine yourself by saying 3/36 on a 19M posting is fair because Dice K got 6/52 on a 51M posting. Nevermind the difference in years but Dice K was posted for 50M!!!! Iwakuma was posted for 19M… which was higher than expected! So is Dice K an example or not… if he is then a 6 year deal slightly above the posting fee makes sense. If the posting fee is irrelevent then why show the relation to begin with.
You say Iwakuma deserves more than Igawa, but Igawa was posted for 26M… that would seem to indicate he had a stronger market when he came out. So again, does the posting fee matter or not?
If you go off comps, the A’s were low but in the ballpark. Nomura wasn’t close to anything no matter how we spin the facts.
Clearing up some misconceptions that people would have if they read your comments and took them at face value....
- Nomura’s opening demand was 3/36. Everyone’s contract that got signed was in the range of their posting fee. You know what Matsuzaka was demanding at first? 100 million dollars! Of course, Iwakuma is going to start with something that’s not going to be in the range of the posting fee.
- Iwakuma wanted money. If not, then lots of years would be sufficient. After all, he is relinquishing free agency. The A’s were offering neither. They did not offer 5 or 5+ years, they did not offer lots of money.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
The A's opening offer was 4/15
We moved a little. I haven’t seen a report that Nomura budged at all. maybe he did. We were closer to 4/20 (your ideal contract) than they were regardless of what happened. Very close actually. Is any of this in doubt? I don’t think so. Again what is your point beyond, “screw this team for offering 4/17 and not 4/20 even though I know neither gets a deal done.” That just sounds odd to me.
Your second point is just wrong as far as the years go. He wanted less years. We lead with 4 and he came back with 3. The next step is not to offer 5…
At 3 years he would be up for another solid contract at age 32. At 5 years, he runs the risk of going year to year after…
Where is your citation for this, as far as I can tell, completely unwarranted claim that Iwakuma wanted lots of years?
Players want long-term deals when the terms are favorable. When they are not favorable they would rather hit the market again sooner. See Beltre, last season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Igawa took 5/20 at well below his posting fee did he not?
Was that not a sacrifice of salary per year in exchange for years? I only brought up the comparison because DrDoom has been insisting in this thread on using Igawa as a comp. So when the comparison doesn’t fit his argument it’s no longer valid to use it?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I know absolutely nothing whatsoever about the Kei Igawa negotiations
I’m not trying to engage in whatever confused discussion you are having with DrDoom. Frankly, I can’t make head or tail of it.
I’m just asking for a specific statement from Iwakuma or his camp that he wanted a lot of years. I was under the impression that he had consistently sought a 3-year deal throughout this process.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
On a completely different topic...
I was thinking about taking a look at the ‘07 Haren trade; comparing his performance via WAR vs. the package the A’s received. My pressing question is this:
Obviously I can look at his performance during the years he was signed to play for Oakland (i.e. through 2010). But should I leave the analysis open-ended because of the extension he signed after going to AZ? I don’t see any reason why the A’s couldn’t have offered Haren the same extension… but that’s conjecture on my part.
So would it be better (more accurate) to restrict the analysis to Haren’s ‘08 -’10 performance without noting that he’s still up to 3 seasons from FA? Or is the extension in play for the analysis?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I would not count any extensions
Taurus Apr 20-May 20
Honey or vinegar? That’s kind of the universal decision we have to make all the time, every day. Are we going to get what we want by being nice or being a dick? And you know what, Taurus? Every situation is different, there’s no one way to do things. Know what else? Honey and vinegar go together in a nice salad dressing.
by designatedforassignment on Dec 8, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
Excellent work
And not just is affirmed my initial impression. ;-)
Rec’d.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That typically players were offered contracts whose total value equaled or exceeded the posting fee
In Iwakuma’s case, that means a 4/$20 offer would have been “fair” and in keeping with the meme of previous negotiations.
Now, maybe Iwakuma wouldn’t have accepted a 4 year/$20 million offer. We’ll never know because the A’s didn’t give him the chance to do so.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I agree that 4/20 is fair
I guess I just think 4/17 is at the low end of fair and therefore not crazy.
To go nuclear...
If you need a quart of water a day to survive, and I’m only giving you 3 cups… you’re going to die. It’s going to be slow and painful (for you) and I’m only holding back a fraction of what you need.
The monster at the end of this blog.
...
Is this the point you want to be making? None of this matters because 4/20 wouldn’t have worked or even come close. I just prefer not to hate my team is all.
Really?
Please provide the link that supports your claim that the A’s offered 4 years/$20 million and Iwakuma rejected it.
If you can’t do that you have almost no basis to make the claims you’re making. You might be right, lenscrafters and I have both conceded that maybe Iwakuma wouldn’t have signed our suggested “fair” and historically comparable offer. But we also argue that it was never presented to Iwakuma to test that theory.
The onus of proof is now fully on you.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Slusser mentuions that the offer started at 4/15.1
Please provide the link the supports your claim
That Iwakuma would have accepted 4/20. My only point is that the A’s were closer to your fair offer. Negotiation is not a one way street.
As a fair minded person who doesn’t hate Billy Beane and accepts the premise that 4/20 is a fair ending point I think 4/15 and then 4/17+ is negotiating in good faith. To not get anything close to 4/20 back from Nomura indicated that they were not negotiating in good faith. Slusser tweeted multiple times that they were still in the 10-12 range per year (Nomura was talking per year not me so please don’t get mad at me again). All the reports also indicated that once the negotiations died they barely picked back up again. It really looks like we countered with 4/17 and were given no indication we were getting close and so we just gave up.
you really must think our management is inept if you think we would leave the negotiating table if we were within a few million. But then I guess that is your point. I wasn’t there and I don’t think they are inept so I simply disagree with your conclusion.
I'll do you one better
Two links where I make it clear that Iwakuma might not sign for 4 years/$20 million.
Not knowing just how good the A’s think Iwakuma can be in the Show, I hesitate to suggest that the A’s should have gone significantly beyond 4/$20… although you have been gracious enough to allow that if the two sides were “within a few million” a deal would get done. Furthermore, as you’ve pointed out time and again, Iwakuma is only a year away from not being subject to the posting system. With that on the table, it only makes sense that Iwakuma should have at least received a fair offer from the A’s.
I’m an A’s fan, and I don’t think he got that fair offer.
This most recent argument of yours is based on one major assumption; and it happens to be pro-Beane. You assume that Nomura didn’t deal in good faith yet you don’t consider the possibility that Beane told Iwakuma 4/$17 was a take-it or leave-it deal.
This from the same GM who non-tendered Jack Cust after the 2009 season in an effort to save $150K on a contract.
The reason why I use the word inept is because the gains that were made by trading for DeJesus have been lost with the departure of Cust. There is no DH. And of the 3 FAs Beane has vigorously pursued this offseason, two will play for different teams next year and the 3rd is angling to do the same. Beane has said in public that the A’s payroll would go up in 2011; this in addition the all the moneys coming off the books with the expired contracts of Sheets and Chavez. Yet as the roster sits today (and estimating some very pro-player arbitration salaries) the A’s are sitting a minimum of $10 million under what they spent on payroll in 2010. The resources are available to improve the roster but so far the A’s have been spinning their wheels.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The A's probably saved closer to $1.3M on Cust's contract by nontendering him
I thought it was a stupid risk, but let’s not obscure what the payoff for taking the risk was.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
And I'm getting accused of making assumptions?
I’m amazed that you know how the arbitration hearing was going to turn out. What might have happened and what actually happened are two separate things: I was merely pointing out the actual fiscal result of the transactions.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The actual fiscal result is that he got paid $2.65M rather than "unknown"
There is no way to estimate what “unknown” was with perfect certainty, but there is no way on earth that the median projection was a repeat of his 2008 salary. Arbitration does not work that way. Players don’t fail to achieve a raise unless they miss most of a season with injuries.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm just saying
‘cause we don’t know if the A’s might have pushed for a salary reduction or what Cust’s suggested demands were going to be the numbers are way too fuzzy for your $1.3 million figure to be held up as an accurate estimate. I don’t want someone to read your comment and run around AN arguing that the A’s saved $1.3 million by non-tendering Cust after the ’09 season.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Your fairest post yet
Thank you for elaborating on your point.
I agree with much of it including the Cust situation and that the A’s should have known that 4/17 was too low. It is possible that was a final offer, but it is just as possible that if they were in the ballpark, negotiations would have continued. 4/20 may have been their stopping point. It also might not have been… we don’t know. I am far more upset with the side that gets nowhere near that number than the side that gets close.
As for the lack of FA signings and the money we have available to spend, I do not fault Beane. We offered 2/16 to Berkman who took 1/8 due to situations outside of Beane’s control. We offered 5/64 to Beltre who doesn’t want to play here for reasons outside of Beane’s control. Jayson Werth is getting $126M. Carlos Pena just took $10M for 2011. I haven’t seen a contract yet that I would have wanted the A’s to take on… though that could change when Cust officially signs with the Mariners. We will spend that money somewhere… lets just hope its a little better deal than Sheets was. But if we do have to do another deal like Sheets I still won’t be upset…. Beane is working with a severe penalty.
Besides the Cust thing, I just don’t see the ineptness that some of you see. But we are free to have different opinions.
try that with three years and thats fair. four isn't
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by designatedforassignment on Dec 7, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
But still not even close to 3/36
It could also be a take it or leave it offer. Give it to us or we will go to FA in 2011. Pure speculation. I think the A’s could have moved further but we really don’t know all the details of the negotiation.
by Rio on Dec 8, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
More enticing to Iwakuma
But not a good deal for the A’s. If we had signed him for $39M over 3 years I think plenty of poeple here would be just as upset if not moreso than they are now for us not signing him at all.
You should hold off on claiming it wouldn't be a good deal
If you thought that Iwakuma would come to the US and pitch like vintage Pedro than Hell yeah, 3/$20 would have been a good deal for the A’s.
I suspect that the A’s thought highly of Iwakuma. It’s possible that a contract significantly above 4/$20 million (say… 4/$28 million for example) might have been a good deal for the A’s. But I don’t know how high a ceiling the A’s had for Iwakuma; therefore I’m not willing to make any assumptions as to what a working contract had to entail other than it needing to at minimum reach the level of “fair”.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Why would Iwakuma sign for 3/18
When he can get twice as much next year? Please try to answer that and you will start to see this never had a chance. The A’s did well to keep him away from other teams, but I doubt any team would have signed him given his free agent status next year.
Igawa, Ichiro and Dice-K
All guys who could have signed for “twice as much” if they had waited another year (or so). Their stories completely undermine your claim that an Oakland/Iwakuma deal “never had a chance”.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Do we know they were all 1 year away from free agency? What were they earning in Japan?
I am just thinking logically. Why would I take 3/21 when I can get 4 this year and 3/36 next year? Why would anyone?
'Cause shit happens. Get hurt and no big payday a year from now.
Why do you think Brett Anderson was willing to sign a contract that covered what would have been his first eligible season of FA? He sacrificed the earliest opportunity for his first big pay day for the assurance of a fairly large payday today.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That is a factor
But I doubt it is enough to outweigh the $$ for next year. We are talking about roughly $20M here. I know you are a smart guy and I usually like your posts but I wonder why you are arguing such odd points with me… I don’t think I am going too far out on a limb with my posts. Do you really think Iwakuma would turn down double the money next year? Really?!?!
I posted about Matsuzaka and Ichiro
It’s about three posts down.
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think any of those guys was particularly close to free agency
Matsuzaka was posted at age 26, Ichiro at 27, Igawa at 27. Iwakuma is 29. Keep in mind that free agency is only available much later in NPB than it is in MLB.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm trying... but when they start is a factor as well
More info on all the examples would be a good thing.
All of which is why I asked lenscrafters to post his work on the subject.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I looked it up
Ichiro played for nine years in Japan. When he was signed, there was no free agency rule in place, as he was drafted in 1991 and the rules for free agency were put into place in 1993. See this link for details (around paragraph 12) The Orix Blue Wave knew Ichiro was going to leave for the US after the season, so they posted him. The posting fee netted them $13 million, and Ichiro signed a 3-year contract for around $15-18 million.
Matsuzaka pitched eight years in Japan starting in 1999. I can’t find when Japanese baseball switched from ten years to nine years for free agency, but per this SI article, Boras considered trying to have Matsuzaka reposted the following season, so I’d assume it was still ten at that point, which would’ve made him two years away from free agency.
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 7, 2010 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
no it's all the A's fault
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