Best Young Starters in Baseball, and Where the A's Fit in!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 23, 2010 11:45 PM PST
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It isn't new for the A's to have an abundance of young starting pitchers, however, through doing research i have found that many teams have been brining up young starters that have had success early in their careers. As evidenced by the lowest league wide ERA in over a decade, this could be the new "dead" ball era. So, i have decided to take an in-depth look at young starters throughout the league. This will be the first of a two part series that focuses on the American League. My next segment will focus on the National League. A couple factors that i have decided to use in determining who is on this list. 1) The said pitcher has to be 26 years old and younger. 2) He has had to have "some" success in the majors.
Phil Hughes New York Yankees 29 Starts, 18 Wins, 4.19 ERA, 2.52 SO/BB, 1.25 WHIP, 2.7 WAR
David Price Tampa Bay Rays 31 Starts, 19 Wins, 2.72 ERA, 2.38 SO/BB, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 WAR
Wade Davis Tampa Bay Rays 29 Starts, 12 Wins, 4.07 ERA, 1.82 SO/BB, 1.35 WHIP, 1.8 WAR
Clay Buchholz Boston Red Sox 28 Starts, 17 Wins, 2.33 ERA, 1.79 SO/BB, 1.21 WHIP, 5.4 WAR
Brian Matusz Baltimore Orioles 32 Starts, 10 Wins, 4.37 ERA, 2.27 SO/BB, 1.34 WHIP, 3.1 WAR
Ricky Romero Toronto Blue Jays 32 Starts, 14 Wins, 3.73 ERA, 2.12 SO/BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 WAR
Brett Cecil Toronto Blue Jays 28 Starts, 15 Wins, 4.22 ERA, 2.17 SO/BB, 1.33 WHIP, 2.2 WAR
Max Scherzer Detroit Tigers 31 Starts, 12 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 2.63 SO/BB, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 WAR
Tommy Hunter Texas Rangers 22 Starts, 13 Wins, 3.73 ERA, 2.06 SO/BB, 1.24 WHIP, 2.4 WAR
Trevor Cahill Oakland Athletics 30 Starts, 18 Wins, 2.97 ERA, 1.87 SO/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 4.1 WAR
Gio Gonzalez Oakland Athletics 33 Starts, 15 Wins, 3.23 ERA, 1.86 SO/BB, 1.31 WHIP, 4.3 WAR
Brett Anderson Oakland Athletics 19 Starts, 7 Wins, 2.80 ERA, 3.41 SO/BB, 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 WAR
Felix Hernandez Seattle Mariners 34 Starts, 13 Wins, 2.27 ERA, 3.31 SO/BB, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 WAR
Okay, so there you have it. If i missed anyone, please let me know, Maybe i am partial in having three A's pitchers on the list, however, i see no reason to disclude any of them. We all know what David Price, Felix Hernandez etc... have done in their careers. It's hard to imagine that Hernandez is still only 25. He has a hall of fame career ahead of him. However, what i find more interesting is the players such as Brett Anderson, Tommy Hunter, Max Scherzer and Brian Matusz, who all have the ability to break out big time in 2011. Additionally, other pitchers not on this list such as Kyle Drabek etc... could come in and dominate from day one.
What are your thoughts on the list that i have compiled? Would you change anything? Keep in mind that this list is in no certain order, except for division. I used baseball-reference.com as my guide to each players stats. I have to say that both the Toronto Blue Jays, and our own Oakland Athletics have the best future starting rotations in the American League. I was incredibly surprised to find out that Brett Anderson (despite limited time) led all of these players in SO/BB ratio. This due can become absolutely dominating if/when he can stay healthy. The stats, in their entirety, shows Felix Hernandez, David Price and Clay Buchholz as a cut above the rest, however, i can easily see both Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson coming near those WAR numbers in 2011. Although, Cahill may not have the best stuff among the trio, the dude knows how to pitch; so don't sleep on him
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as much as anderson, gio, and cahill will be stellar next season
watch out for bucholz. he’s gonna be filthy good next season
Steph + Monta for Prez
Jeremy Hellickson or Neftali Feliz
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
Feliz ain't starting though...
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 24, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Come hellickson or high water?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Indeed
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 24, 2010 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
I voted Gio
But only because Anderson and Cahill already had their breakout seasons in 2010.
by Mr. Clean Sweep on Dec 24, 2010 8:35 AM PST reply actions
Anderson's breakout season was one in which he only played about half?
Nope.
If Anderson gets 30 starts, he’s Cy Young material.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 24, 2010 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
I voted Matusz because he's the one who didn't pitch well last season
(so he actually has to break out from something) and is supposed to have ace-potential. Gio already had his breakout year, to “break out” Anderson would just be repeating his stats but doubling the appearances, and Cahill would be, what, putting up similar numbers only with better peripherals to please the SABR cats? And Tommy Hunter sucks.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Cahill really put up better peripherals -- say a 3.50 FIP/3.40 tERA I'd call that breaking out
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 24, 2010 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Why is everyone obsessed with FIP?
A sinkerball pitcher like Cahill will never be “fielding independent”
There is skill to Trevor thinking “I have great infield defense, I’m good at inducing groundballs, I’m going to win a lot of games.”
Hes just as good at getting outs as a strikeout pitcher, but since his FIP isnt as good, hes not as good of a pitcher?
Please. When will everyone understand that what Trevor does takes skill and isnt just luck.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Dec 24, 2010 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Because what you've just said contradicts basically every study out there?
but since his FIP isnt as good, hes not as good of a pitcher
Yes, exactly.
Meh. We used to way overemphasize
how much control pitchers had beyond Ks, BBs, and HRs. Now we underemphasize it. Someday we may get it right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not in the know on advanced stats
But with UZR don’t they qualify range and how hard balls are to be fielded and stuff? For instance, if they’ve establish velocities and locations of balls that fielders can be expected to get to, shouldn’t they be able to check which pitchers induce the most “fieldable” balls in play or balls in play “expected to be fielded”?
From the UZR primer:
“…with UZR the amount of credit that the fielder receives on each play…depends on how often that particular kind of batted ball, in terms of its location, speed and several other factors, is fielded by an average fielder at the same position, measured over a time span of several years…”
If they have this data available, shouldn’t they come up with a way to show whether pitchers induce more balls that an average fielder should be expected to get to, thus putting an end to the debate about whether getting the batter to hit it to a fielder is a legitimate skill? I doubt if someone did it consistently for like 15 years it would be all luck…
Also to danmerqury, I was wondering if you could point me to some of those studies so that I could get a little more info.
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
UZR isn't publicly available
The final results are on fangraphs, as well as some range runs and assorted other runs. But the process is not available to the public.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Gotcha
When I said “shouldn’t they come up with something…” I wasn’t referring to fangraphs in particular, but thanks for telling me that, I didn’t know. But I assume the information is something that can be bought, right? A service that can be acquired? So maybe someday some stats company interested in refining FIP and that sort of thing will invest in the service.
I’m sure there are other sites/companies that might get interested in pursuing that sort of project.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
I think teams could/do probably buy the data
But I don’t know that anybody else could/does.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Also
It would appear to me that FIP (Fielding Independent, right?) is less a measure of “how good a pitcher is” and more a measure of how valuable a pitcher would be to a team, based on the defense behind him (in my opinion, I haven’t read the studies you’re talking about).
For instance, if I’m Billy Beane and I see a pitcher with low BABIP and what would be considered “high” or “bad” FIP, I might say “He would do well on our team because our defense is really good.”
That’s how I would interpret those stats and put them to use anyway.
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions
FIP ignores BIP
In other words, a player with a bad FIP shouldn’t be expected to improve based on their BABIP.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Oops!
I think I got them flipped…what you say makes much more sense than what I said! Still trying to get all these stats straight, thank you!
I think what I meant was that a player with a bad FIP could have that offset by the good defense, like the extra HRs and BBs might be offset by the effect the good defense would have on his BABIP…
…Or I meant the pitcher with a good FIP would be valuable to a team with a bad defense…I can’t remember what I had in my head when I posted that.
This is going to be a learning process for me, thanks for setting me straight!
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not saying you're wrong,
but nobody in baseball history has put up numbers quite like Trevor. Makes me take the luck argument a little more seriously.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Greg Minton is actually a really interesting one to analyze
Check out his career stats. A career K/9IP of 3.81! And a K/BB ratio of 0.99. Yet he had 150 career saves with a 3.10 ERA and was a legitimately good closer for several years.
How did he do it? I guess partly a low BABIP (.277) and just a ton of ground balls — they don’t have his GO/AO ratio but I have to assume that it was really high and that his career “slugging against” was really low.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Eh, it's a pretty good comp.
The reliever/starter difference leaves me unconvinced though. Plus, if you regress Cahill’s 2010 BABIP to .277 his ERA jumps a pretty decent amount (his ERA would still be very good, though).
I’m not saying Cahill can’t be the guy to defy history and be one of a kind with his stats. If anyone were to do it, it’d be Cahill: smart guy who almost went to an Ivy League School, lots of movement, yet not overpowering. It’s just that I’m not counting on him to do something that I don’t think we’ve really seen before. I’m not setting myself up to be disappointed again, it’s happened too many times in the last 5 years with this team. Low standards for the win!
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I voted Anderson
for hopefully having a healthy season and performing like 2009 second half Brett.
I’ll have to look at Bucholz a bit closer before I form an opinion moving forward. I know he’s good but I don’t know how I feel about the whole East Coast bias thing.I feel he may bit a just a tad over hyped.
I look forward to our boys matching up next season, however, and it sure will be some good pitching to watch for years to come. Go A’s!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
What's funny is that Bucholz' stats had a lot in common with Cahill's
He had a 4.20 xFIP (Cahill 4.11), a low BABIP (.265), and a fairly low K/rate (6.22, to go with a 3.47 BB/9IP rate), along with a 79% strand rate that might explain some of his success. SABRcats should not be too bullish on Bucky.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wait, when did the Sabercats play the Bulls?
Winter Inter Sports, eh?
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I found this info that's supposed to help with your fantasy picks
Not the stat brat here but here is the link……….. (Per The Hardball Times)
In this piece, the author lists Cahill as a good, solid bet, and like Jon Lester better than Bucholz, if I’m understanding it right. Justin Masterson, Jon Lester, and Shawn Marcum also look to be favored.
Bucholz seems to be a hard one top figure out for this guy:
Clay Buchholz’s underlying peripherals have changed so much year-to-year that it’s hard to peg his true talent too.
Okay, I have to finish wrapping some Christmas presents now but I’ll try to check in later to see what everyone else chimes in with. Ho-ho-ho! Go A’s!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
One thing:
You’re probably going to get a little reaction from AN on your use of rWAR (from B-Ref). fWAR (on Fangraphs) is much better, especially for pitching.
I happen to think both forms of WAR have meaning, and they are different
rWAR tells you how that pitcher actually did last year. It is not independent of fielding and it is not independent of luck.
fWAR tells you how that pitcher would have done last year if his luck and fielding was exactly league average. Basically I feel this stat is sort of telling you what would happen if you could go back into a time machine and replay the season with exactly average everything except the pitchers HRs Ks HBPs and BBs.
Here comes my critique of both: Especially with these young pitchers, I feel they all have a likelihood of changing a lot next year. Some might not, some get hurt, there is always a regression to the mean argument. Neither stat is as good at predicting next year’s number for these guys as it is for predicting next year’s numbers for a guy with 10 years in the leauge. I also don’t believe fWAR really eliminates luck. Some pitchers I could imagine could have like 5 catches made by their outfield which saved them from home runs. Some pitchers could have given up a few inside the park homers, (defense dependent). Some pitchers could have pitched more innings with an ump with a small strike zone…Some pitchers don’t throw very hard and may come up against a lot of batters like Jason Kendall who doesn’t mind getting HBP.
by barryzitoforever on Dec 24, 2010 10:59 AM PST reply actions
Agreed, to some extent
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe FIP also takes into account what happens in the case of unearned runs.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 24, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Straight FIP is just HRs, Ks and BBs/HBPs
He’s right that plays which were influenced by the defense should in theory be removed from the equation, but inside-the-park-HR and over-the-wall catches are so rare that they can be ignored for practical purposes. I mean, sometimes a catcher inadvertently drops a strike and the umpire then inexplicably calls it a ball, too, but that doesn’t make walks “defense dependent.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
What I'm getting at is
And I’ve been wondering about this for awhile, so humor me.
Hypothetically, let’s say a guy who’s a pretty good pitcher has an abysmal defense behind him.
This pitcher gets riled up easily, and his defense has a habit of making errors with 2 outs.
Let’s say he consistently gives up a good amount of HRs and BBs while there are 2 outs when he was supposed to be out of the inning.
Of course, this is an extremely odd circumstance, but his FIP would be significantly higher then if his defense could make those plays.
So, technically, FIP doesn’t entirely represent what it stands for…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 24, 2010 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
but luckily we have a great defense...
Lets go Oakland, boom boom boom boom boom
by section119a'sfan on Dec 24, 2010 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Are you trying to say that the pitcher might not trust his defense, and therefore will try to get the batter out himself?
And then will probably make mistake pitches that will raise his FIP?
As opposed to trusting his defense and being able to throw more garbage pitches.
No, that's not what I'm saying
I’m saying let’s say a pitcher has to consistently get 4 outs to get out of an inning because his defense is error prone. Let’s say it’s a guy like Gio who gets riled up on the mound, and once he’s gotten 2 outs and they start booting balls, he becomes more likely to give up HRs because of his frustration…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 24, 2010 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
A hypothetical example would be Duke in Anaheim,
when Cust dropped the routine fly ball that would have ended the inning and then Duke gave up solid hit after solid hit until 5 runs were in.
On a more likely scale, you wonder if Justin Masterson changed his approach at all during a 2010 season in which the defense behind him was so bad.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Masterson is really much better than his FIP and tERA he's an All-Star candidate
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 25, 2010 9:18 AM PST up reply actions
I think I see what you're saying
But I think the best we can do is say, even though he should have been out of the inning, he was still on the mound, threw the pitch and was taken out of the park for a HR, regardless of whether he should have been out there or how upset he might have been about still being out there.
Because otherwise we’d have to look at guys whose girlfriends break up with them the night before their starts, or are upset about their breakfast or something like that. Mental and emotional issues don’t seem like they can be reliably incorporated into statistics.
And as to the giving up of more HR’s, BB’s etc. because the defense doesn’t get him out of the inning on time, I think that’s just more IP. Pitchers with managers who keep them in the game longer shouldn’t have their FIP adjusted just because they pitched more than other guys on other teams, and because I think we have to disregard emotional issues, all pitching to an extra batter because of a defensive error is is more IP.
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
I do think the fact that pitchers are less effective
25-40 pitches into an inning might have relevance — but to the extent that guys like Masterson are unfairly penalized for having to throw more “high pitch count inning” pitches, that’s just the way it goes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I hadn't thought about that
Pitch counts in relation to defensive miscues do seem like they should be taken into account for better accuracy…
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Dec 25, 2010 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
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