Bit By Bit: Beane's Bonanzas & Blunders
by Nico on Dec 17, 2010 9:27 PM PST
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PrintUPDATE, SATURDAY MORNING: As discussed in notsellingjeans' fanpost, the Angels have reportedly offered Beltre 5 years, $70M, with Boras reportedly now officially seeking 5/85 for Beltre, or a 6-year deal and the Angels indicating they will not increase their offer. My official position on this is that the A's should now make a "final offer, take it or leave it" of somewhere from 5/75-5/80. If Beltre signs with the Angels for less, the A's have made a true effort, if the Angels match or beat the A's offer then at least the A's have made the Angels pay up, and if he signs with the A's it's worth it to make Oakland arguably the favorites in the AL West.
Count me in as pretty darn pleased with the off-season so far. Process-wise, I think Beane has done well more often than he has erred, though it is, as always, a mixed bag. Today I will break down -- you didn't let me finish -- today I will break down each move, roughly in chronological order, to separate out which ones I think deserve praise and which deserve to be panned. You can, if you finish your peas and your Science homework, weigh in with your own perspectives...
Adrian Beltre - Bonanza Let's get the most controversial one out of the way first, as the off-season pretty much kicked off with a 5 year, $64M offer to Adrian Beltre. Many consider this negotiation to be in the "blunder" category, but I am in the minority who believe Beane has done well so far -- though obviously how it plays out will go a long way to establishing who was right all along.
What Beane has avoided are three negotiation killers: Having your offer(s) used for leverage to sign elsewhere, bidding against yourself, and making panicky high offers when you don't need to. Early on, he made a fair offer -- high on the years, so-so on the dollars -- but one unlikely to be accepted on the spot. And then he has sat back, knowing that if Beltre has any interest in playing for the A's and/or getting the best offer then Oakland will be contacted before any deal is signed elsewhere, while the list of potential suitors has shrunk and no bidding war has emerged. If no one else makes an appealing offer, the A's hold all the cards. If another team does, the A's can probably match, exceed, or pass, without engaging in a back-and-forth bidding war or guessing what it will take to get a deal done.
Initially, Boras said he was seeking 5 years and $90M for Beltre and initially the A's said they would welcome Beltre for 5 years and $64M. It appears likely that the figure that lands Beltre will be closer to $64M than it is to $90 -- maybe a lot closer -- and that's assuming any other team is even willing to offer 5 years, which is a big if.
The A's may not get Beltre (heck, we don't even know how much they want him anymore, though I assume they still do), and if a division rival lands Beltre without grossly overspending the A's might look bad in the end. But Beane has played "chicken" with Boras without blinking and personally, I think Billy has won. Especially because even after a series of moves between November and today, the A's still have the payroll flexibility to make the best offer in the end if that's what they wish to do.
Hisashi Iwakuma - Blunder Not a big one, and in fact one that reversed itself when the A's got their $19M posting fee returned, but I don't think either side did well here. Agent Don Nomura erred by being utterly insane, but the A's paid an awful lot for the rights to negotiate with a "roll of the dice" #3ish starter.
The problem was, the posting fee was high enough that the A's, in order to get a worthwhile deal in the end, had to make a pretty meh annual offer to Iwakuma. Both sides would have been better off had the A's won posting rights for about $14-$15M and then been able to make a better offer to Iwakuma without overpaying in the end. Luckily, negotiations fell apart and the whole thing became nothing more than an amusing trail of bizarre tweets.
David DeJesus - Bonanza DeJesus was a vintage Billy Beane pickup: Someone good enough to be worth adding, not good enough to cost a ton to acquire, coming off one freak injury that helped sap a little of his trade value. The result? Oakland adds a solid defensive COFer with a career OPS of .787 and wOBA of .342, in exchange for Vin Mazzaro, a decent young pitcher but one whose career so far has been marred by questions about upside and attitude, and Justin Marks -- likely the more painful loss of the two long-term, but a lower-level pitching prospect nonetheless. Most importantly, the A's upgrade at the position (COF) in most dire need of a boost and they did it for the price of a #5 starter who appeared to have pitched his way into the club's doghouse.
Rajai Davis - Blunder The decision to trade Davis for two minor league relievers puzzled me then and puzzles me now. Davis is not expensive, plays a solid defensive CF, and as a result is a valuable understudy if you happen to have a starting CFer with an extensive injury history. Meanwhile, as a 25th man on your bench you couldn't do a whole lot better than a "game changing" pinch runner, a good platoon starter, and an excellent defensive COFer. By trading Davis in favor of keeping Conor Jackson and Ryan Sweeney, the A's have made themselves more vulnerable in the unlikely (ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!) event Coco Crisp misses substantial playing time. Had Rajai been dealt to upgrade the team in a meaningful way, that would be one thing; dealing him for a couple "ok" minor league relief arms? Bad move.
Jack Cust - Blunder I am not going to get into how good or bad Jack Cust is. Let's just accept him as a guy with terrific on base skills, no defensive skills, and power/slugging that is currently difficult to project. For the $4-5M he might have cost in arbitration, tendering him should have been a given, and to let him slip away -- for $2.5M no less -- before a replacement was secured was just foolish. Conor Jackson should have been dumped twice: Once to leave payroll and "backup OF" room for Rajai Davis and when that didn't happen, to leave payroll room for Jack Cust. Curse you, Valley Fever! {shakes fist}
Hideki Matsui - Bonzana Had the A's signed Lance Berkman, for more money than Cust and very hard to predict results, the DH blunder train would have made one more stop. However, if there was a signing that could take the sting away from Custblunderfest, it was signing Matsui to a remarkably team-friendly deal: one year, $4.5M (minus the revenue his Japanese Godzillaness is worth to the A's).
Matsui has reliably been good for a .360+ OBP and more power than anyone on last year's roster was good for, and while at age 36 he is a decline candidate that decline has not evidenced itself yet in regards to OBP or the ability to serve as a legitimate "middle of the order" (say #5) hitter.
Josh Willingham - Bonanza Another guy who actually belongs in the middle of a batting order, Willingham was obtained for an awfully low price: an erratic reliever and a 25 year old "toolsy" prospect who Ks as if every opposing pitcher is, well, Henry Rodriguez.
Willingham, unlike many good hitters, has already expressed an openness to discussing an extension with Oakland, so this may or may not be a "one year rental." If it is, the draft picks Willingham yields the A's will help offset the loss of two prospects, and if it isn't the A's might have a solid bat in the COF for the next 2-3 years.
Suddenly at COF, a position where a black hole would have constituted an upgrade two months ago, Oakland has two guys who combine for a career .800 OPS, one of whom plays excellent defense and one of whom hits for good power, and the A's have, in the mix, a luxury "4th OFer" in Ryan Sweeney. Just the fact that Matsui and Willingham can bat #3-#4, while former "miscast middle-of-the-order hitters" Kurt Suzuki and Kevin Kouzmanoff would probably bat #6-#7 in the current lineup, tells you a lot about how much the A's offense has improved since season's end.
Brandon McCarthy/Rich Harden - Bonunder? Blanza? Not big moves, but a perfectly fine addition of depth with McCarthy offering another option for the vacancy left by Vin Mazzaro and Harden being an intriguing candidate for the Kerry Wood role of "perpetually injured starter becomes dominant set-up man" -- also known as the Keith Foulke role of "90MPH fastball and killer changeup makes hitters go crazee!"
Conclusion: Sure, adding Beltre now would be the icing on the cake, but with or without the single-nutted one I think the A's have put themselves "in the conversation" in the AL West, and they have done so still with enough payroll flexibility to add now or add later as opportunity (or Scott Boras) knocks. Not a bad month's work at all.
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i dont know about rajai
he was a terrible baserunner, took horrible routes in the outfield, and had no pop. i wasnt upset with that move at all, although i did like the guy
The only reason I have anything against it
Is because it meant keeping Jackson around when Rajai serves his role much better…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
When Crisp goes down, you'll wish the A's had Davis and not Jackson
(who will probably also be hurt).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 17, 2010 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Yes, this
Again, I don’t hate the deal, but if it means that Jackson will have to serve some sort of starting role where Davis would have filled in, I will miss Rajai…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
Well that's kind of inevitable
Jackson won’t be one of the 3 every day starters, so if he’s around he’ll be slotted in for an injured OFer — and who, historically, is more likely to miss a bunch of time than Crisp?
Sweeney + Davis is much more complementary than Sweeney + Jackson (unless you want a really good platoon for those games played on the bench).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It could be that Beane has already received interest in Jackson
Rajai Davis is 2 1/2 years older than Jackson.
Davis’ best year SLG: .423
Jackson best SLG: .467
Davis Career OBP: .330
Jackson Career OBP: .358
If you are going to select a 5th OF, pick the one with the highest ceiling.
That would be great
Ideal scenario: The A’s sign Beltre, then package Kouzmanoff and Jackson in a trade for a useful addition (be it a solid prospect or a really good reliever).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's a point worth debating
The matter is whether or not Jackson will ever actually be healthy again.
History says no.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
I was thinking the opposite
That due to injuries and poor production, Jackson has very little value, and Davis was arguably at his peak value (in terms of likely production).
Regardless, Billy seems to have a hard on for Jackson and is banking that he can get healthy and be somewhat productive in a reserve roll. Which I guess could work out. But it seems unlikely that Jackson would have gotten $2.5 mil (or whatever he’s going to get) on the open market, so tendering him still doesn’t make much sense.
by andyinfremont on Dec 17, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
The weird thing is, the way the OF has evolved
there isn’t even anyone who would platoon (as Sweeney or Davis would/could have). DeJesus, Crisp, and Willingham should start every day…while healthy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Davis' peak value was last offseason
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:23 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I remember someone beating that particular bass drum
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Someone answer me this....
There’s all this talk about Jackson, but the numbers do not allow for Jackson on the A’s roster if Sweeney is also on the roster. It’s about numbers….
The A’s carry 12 pitchers. That leaves 13 position players. Drop off the nine starters and you have four: One is your reserve catcher (Powell); one is your reserve infielder (Rosales); one is your fourth outfielder. The fourth…well, Matsui can play 1B and OF in a pinch. But who is the reserve third baseman is Rosales is playing shortstop or second base? Nobody, if Sweeney and Jackson are on the team.
There were so many scrubs up and down last year I can't remember the typical bench configuration
Did they carry two reserve infielders all season?
I mean, for some portion of last year, Fox was backup for both 3B and Catcher was he not?
So, at that time, Rosy was backup for all infield positions but also 2nd backup for the outfield.
Once Fox was gone, Powell was backup catcher, but did they have a 2nd backup infielder?
Because, they pretty much carried Gross all season, right? Was there always another outfielder in reserve?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
Fox, Patterson, or Cust
Just no one who could actually catch a fly ball.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So. I'm not yet convincedd that Jackson can even stand up.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions
Sure he can. He just can't sit back down.
It’s the constant up and down that’s an issue. If you need him to sit for 3 weeks straight — like Landon Powell does — or run around randomly for 3 weeks — like Rajai Davis does — Conor is totally up to the job.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Whoops, he just collapsed in a heap
But he says he’ll be fine.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Seriously, though (Bed reference)
In reply to richwol1’s question, did the A’s typically carry two backup outfielders, two backup infielders, or just what? (And since Rosales counts as both, before he went down was he the only backup infielder, which is my memory?)
Or, is the only answer that there was so much movement back and forth to and from Sacto and the DL that we just can’t tell?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
They generally had at least two of each
in that Rosales can play LF, Patterson 2B, Fox “3B,” and so on. As for guys you’d feel ok about putting there, more like 1.5 of each.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With Rosales a 1, and the other guys adding up to .5
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
a trained monkey can back-up any position in the field for a few innings before
tolleson or sogard can get to SeaTac.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Rosales can play third
Jackson has played 2 games there in the majors.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
He means if we need both a backup MIF and a backup 3Bman
But then you deal with it for a few innings and call up Tolleson.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
so if Rosales is in the game Pennington and Ellis are both Dead?
why can’t one of them some in?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I think he's envisioning a scenario
where Kouz crashes into Pennington. Or Ellis mistakenly pats Beltre on the head.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, because he is so useful playing 2B, SS, and 3B!
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
That's when it gets fun, and you say
“OMG, did you hear that [player] played a few innings at [position] yesterday??” And then the next day they bring up Tolleson or Sogard.
In the two-infielders-down scenarios suggested, I assume Rosales goes to SS and some interesting adventure happens at 3B. Could be anyone: Barton, Jackson, Suzuki, Crisp….
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Assuming that two starting infielders go down at the same time
I suspect it won’t really matter who the A’s put there, as the game will be up, anyway.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
The ninth fastest thirty year old in San Francisco
Eh, DeJesus is a career -0.5 UZR/150 in center and Sweeney is 0.7 for the same stat.
It shouldn’t be panic in Oakland if Crisp goes down, but I hope that doesn’t happen because he’s better than both of them.
I agree
I didn’t like that trade at all.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
unless jackson has a career yearm lol
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 21, 2010 1:15 AM PST up reply actions
I wonder how high Beane is valuing the 2012 draft
Not only is he setting this team up to be competitive for next year, it is also set with the potential to pick up multiple draft picks.
Count them:
DeJesus
McCarthy
Harden
Wuertz
Jackson
Matsui
Willingham
Crisp
Ellis
All in walk years, all with some potential for a draft pick, some more than others.
Does Jackson have enough stats to rate a draft pick? If not then the classic July trade bait.
My prediction is that of the A's 3 starting OFers (Willingham, Crisp, DeJesus),
one will be extended for “one year plus an option,” one will be extended for one year, and one won’t be extended at all. I don’t think the A’s are going to lose their entire OF all of a sudden.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think you might be correct
Next years free agent OF are looking meek. So much so, that if Beane does not think Taylor or Carter will be ready, or able, he will get first crack at three of them.
Based on Carter/Taylor this makes sense to me.
After this season, Carter’s and Taylor’s futures in Oakland will be a lot clearer (assuming neither of them are traded). Another full season of defensive OF work for Carter will determine whether or not the A’s can stomach him in LF, and another season of everything for Taylor will go a long way to saying whether last season was a fluke or the beginning of the end for his prospect status.
I would like to hope that at least one of the two of them shows enough to earn a shot at an OF spot going into 2012. That would mean your scenario would be likely. As for who gets resigned, I would imagine that depends on what happens with Type A statuses and the like.
And on their health
“Last man standing gets an extension!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think if either does well in the first half -
one of them could get a call-up by the ASB, especially Taylor if Crisp or Willingham get hurt.
My wishes for Santa is a healthy team for 2011.
The big question is after the FA period is over for the A's, Does Beane extend anyone?
DeJesus, Wuertz, Willingham would be the first in my mind..
Also, If Carter comes up during the season he may make one of those COFs not so important.
I recall everyone saying how bad Barton was on defense and on offense his first full year. Now, he is one of the best on the team. A little more time in AAA playing COF will help Carter and when he gets called up I imagine it won’t take long for him to find his stroke.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Probably not Wuertz, until he confirms he's healthy and effective...
…and maybe not even then, considering how the A’s churn through relievers after a few years. I’ve also been a bit surprised at what some other teams are paying relievers — the market seems a bit screwy.
But DeJesus or Willingham seem like good bets.
by andyinfremont on Dec 17, 2010 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
Definitely not Wuertz
A reliever in his 30s who snaps off a hard slider as his means of success? Not a great guy to extend.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's hard to see any draft pick value in McCarthy, Harden, or Jackson....
…unless they somehow have monster years in 2011.
And I agree with Nico that at least one of the current starting outfielders will get an extension.
by andyinfremont on Dec 17, 2010 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
I just don't see the A's signing Beltre
The Angels are going to be desperate and will have to sign him if they want to be competitive. Unless the A’s overpay by 3-5M I don’t see him signing. He’s already been disrespectful by not replying to any offers. Then again maybe it would be wise to try to get the Angels to sign him to a bad contract
"You need to get real!"
For all we know, the Angels' offer (which apparently has been rejected already)
was something like 4 years / $56M, which the A’s can easily beat — and in fact arguably already have. That 5th year may be a reason he hasn’t garnered more interest — and if the A’s are the only team prepared to offer 5 years they can make the best offer without overpaying annually.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Where's your info from?
La times had Angels offer in the 5 yr 70 mil range
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-moreno-angels-20101218,0,2780030.story
I do not doubt you, and Thanks for all you do on AN!
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 17, 2010 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
Wow thanks for this!
This really sucks…but the good news is that the article says that’s about as high as the Angels are willing to go.
Boras is going around right now trying to see if anyone else (meaning the A’s and Rangers) can top it. The A’s have to be the team that does.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 17, 2010 11:58 PM PST up reply actions
If it is even a real offer,
Could it be moreno trying to get the A’s to commit more ? Based on other content of that interview, if real, it is likely the max offer, and I’d hope we could do better. Don’t know what the Rangers financials look like, but I think bb can offer more than ghat ( if interested )
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 18, 2010 7:29 AM PST up reply actions
Let me chew on that ghat...
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:59 AM PST up reply actions
g right below the t
Those darn qwerty keyboards
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 18, 2010 8:40 AM PST up reply actions
{except after "c"}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
my keyboard even lacks the detents on the f and j
so that I occasionally get one or both hands on the wrong keys, and look up to see a whole line or two of:
dp yjsy zo pvvsdopms;;u ;uppl i[ yp drr s ejp;r
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
That happens to me with entire fanposts.
I usually don’t notice until well after I have hit “post.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If I'm remembering my Scrabble words correctly
what you want to chew on is khat, kat, or qat. A ghat is a set of stairs leading down to the river, or by extension a sort of mountain range.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
You keep your adz away from my fez!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ewww!
+ double for the in-sin-u-A-tion, or even the inn-u-endo
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
The "z" was played on a triple word score, too.
F
E
A D Z
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
nice
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
Ahhh, I knew I was on thin ice there
Yessss, now I remember, the ‘Western Ghats’. In fairness, it has been well over 130 years since I was stationed there during the Sepoy rebellion…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
Wikipedia tells me that the Western Ghats
aren’t really mountains.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
This is true, actually
They are hills. They are the remnants of an incredibly vast lava flow, IIRC
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
If Moreno wanted to do something like that, I don't know why he would bother leaking it through an interview for the LA Times.
Perhaps he has sources that indicate that Beane has a subscription to the LA Times and he’s hoping Beane catches that little blurb in the sports section?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
I really don't know either
Just hoping…..
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 18, 2010 8:44 AM PST up reply actions
Is there a free agent out there in 2012 or in 2013
that could impact the balance of Power in the AL West more than Beltre? Other than Fielder and Pujols I don’t see any, I say give him what he wants and be done with it.
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
I'd agree with all but Matsui
I mean I like the price and the amount of revenue could offset my feelings a bit, but I like Matsui the least of Thome/Manny/Cust/Berkman. He’s OK. At best, it’s a lateral move. Maybe you could argue that all the negatives should be counted under the Cust move. But that move was stupid enough it’s cause for multiple blunders.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I wasn't that hot-to-trot about Matsui
until I saw the salary terms. Berkman would have cost more like $7M, and I actually prefer Matsui at $4.5M because he’s more predictable in terms of health and what you can expect to get.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What's not to love about Godzilla?
He’s a huge Japanese movie star, a Gemini, is a resident expert on pornography, loves Billy Beane’s book, and best of all…….he loves puppies!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I'd rather have Berkman at $7M than Matsui at $4.5M
Berkman’s one of the best hitters of his generation. Matsui is not. I have far more belief in the possibility of Berkman bouncing back with a 2006-Frank-Thomas-esque season than I could ever have in Matsui.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Not hugely thrilled or disappointed in Matsui
It definitely has some pros and cons.
On one hand, I think it could boost fan base a bit, which could be valuable.
I think we all really know the negatives that comes with this deal, but I do have to say that his 2nd half stats last year were very encouraging…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
Lots of money and attention though
Thome, Manny, Berkman, and definitely not Cust – these guys would not have brought a whole new market of Japanese fans and media deals. Matsui is still big time in Japan, and we’ll get a lot more attention as well as not insignificant revenue.
Billy liked Berkman better than Matsui, and both of them more than Cust
And as elcroata’s piece about Cust vs. Matsui makes clear, there are some actual reasons to prefer a guy who makes contact more often.
I don’t think we were ever in the running for Thome, either.
Manny? I agree with you there, but it seems Billy has an aversion to even suspected juicers, much less a known one…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:47 AM PST up reply actions
I'd call the Iwakuma situation a success, to be honest
Anyone care to discuss?
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
The A's blocked everyone else (intentionally or not), which does have some value
by andyinfremont on Dec 17, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
And provided a wealth of Twitter-based entertainment value (intentionally or not).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
lol
or just naturally stupid
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 21, 2010 1:22 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly
One of a couple different reasons I’m kind of glad we didn’t end up signing him.
I mean, would you rather have Iwakuma or Willingham at this point?
Personally, Willingham, as he’s proven.
(I’m assuming the Iwakuma deal would have hamstrung Beane from making the Willingham deal…)
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
agreed, if nothing else it blocked the rest of the AL West teams from acquiring him
Rangers, Seattle (and maybe even the Angles) need pitching more than the A’s and could have been tempted to meet his demands
I mean, in the end
We’ll have to wait another couple years now to see whether or not he’s valuable pitching in the Majors.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
It would have been great is one of the other AL West teams signed him,
to a Barry Zito type deal.
Iwakuma a blunder - wha????????
How can anyone call the Iwakuma dealings a blunder? What did it cost the A’s? Absolutely nothing. The A’s had a legitimate shot at signing the guy (who has not throw a single major league pitch yet, by the way) and would have, if his agent wasn’t such an idiot. Plus it kept the competition from obtaining him. Sorry, but I am having trouble seeing the downside? Please enlighten.
slide! jeremy slide!
The posting fee amount meant Oakland had to:
a. Offer him too little to actually have any decent chance of landing him, or
b. Way overpay overall for a risky “pretty good” pitcher
It was bound to fail.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But it didn't fail.
It only cost the the A’s a few long distance phone calls and he isn’t pitching against them this year. Worth the cost of those phone calls don’t ya think? The A’s had everything to gain and nothing to lose, pretty good situation to be in, but alas being the A’s, still nothing was gained.
slide! jeremy slide!
OK so this dovetails into a "why not..." question
If the A’s succeeded because well, at least no other AL West team got him, why don’t the A’s post $70M for Yu Darvish next year, undoubtedly winning the posting rights, and then offer him $400,000 (league minimum) for 10 years?
Now either the A’s get him for $7.4M annually, or no one gets him (when he undoubtedly refuses the offer). What’s to stop teams from doing this?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The honor system
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Honor?
I barely KNEW her!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Since no teams have currently abused the posting system in this way, I'd say there's certainly "something" stopping teams from doing that.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
I guess nothing stops teams from doing it
There is a tipping point somewhere – posting fee vs. player salary. Beane is know for exploiting what others ignore. Well played Billy.
slide! jeremy slide!
by elephantman on Dec 18, 2010 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
posting fee aside
it was still a fair offer to the player, no?
slide! jeremy slide!
by elephantman on Dec 18, 2010 11:09 PM PST up reply actions
With the recent signing of Nishioka by the Twins (5 million posting fee; 3/9 contract),
the A’s remain the only team not to sign the NPB player they won the bid for. Iwakuma is the only player who went through the posting system, received a bid, yet did not a sign contract.
Nomura is an asshat but he’s been mouthing off about the A’s lacking “sincerity” ever since. He may be completely lying but the Japanese are a collectivist culture; who are they going to believe? Who are the players going to believe?
I’m not saying that there will definitely be repercussions from these failed negotiations, nor do I pretend to know how significant they will be. But even the most optimistic among us cannot discount the possibility that the current, likely negative perception of the A’s in Japan will hamper future forays into the NPB market.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
Even odder: The fact that Iwakuma plays for the team
Oakland just signed a formal agreement with. I wonder if that agreement will last.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Another notable point...
Nishioka signed a deal that’s total was greater than the posting fee.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah, I spelled it out thinking someone might notice that.
Average salary per year was 800K less than what the A’s were offering Iwakuma, a far better player and one who received a bid 14 million dollars higher.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
The smaller the fee
the more likely the salary is larger. Nishioka’s contract is pretty standard. Iwakuma’s was low but not outside the range of comps. None of this matters because only Iwakuma was 1 year from FA.
Oh, and apropos of nothing, based on the current roster
my batting order would look like this:
Crisp – CF
Barton – 1B
Matsui – DH
Willingham – LF
DeJesus – RF
Suzuki – C
Kouzmanoff – 3B
Ellis – 2B
Pennington – SS
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With a good pitching staff and defense behind it,
it’s not bad. No murderers row, but not an embarrassment either.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
First time since '07
Thank gawd.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
I really, really, really like it more with Beltre in there
and Kouz dealt to Toronto for whatever prospect we can get.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
Kouz for Jason Frasor?
Seems possibly fair and helpful for both teams.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Would there be room for him in the pen?
With Bailey/Weurtz/Breslow/Ziggy/Blevins plus probably Harden or McCarthy?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
There's always room for a good reliever,
because you always have some meh relievers in the mix.
Just start with exactly those guys: Bailey/Weurtz/Frasor/Breslow/Ziggy/Blevins + either Harden or McCarthy (the other is starting or cut). There’s your seven.
And as you know, bullpens change a lot throughout the season as guys get hurt, promoted/demoted, and so on.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Which could be the casualty if Devine is good to go.
With Bailey, Devine, Wuertz, and Frasor giving you Padres-like depth, you would be fine with just one lefty (Breslow).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sure
but I think I’d rather have an interesting spec for him.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
I guess it depends on who's actually offered
and how you/the A’s feel about them. I tend not to think in terms of “a B- prospect” so much as “this particular prospect” - because there’s so much subjectivity involved that to me, all "B prospects" aren’t equal. I either like a guy or I don’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sorry about the Jack Cust levels of strickout.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
nico doesn't get defensive...he deletes the post instead
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Come on, now
It was a joke about Cust’s fielding “abilities”, not anything against Nico, who I happen to think is awesome and hilarious (now, if I were a goat…)
no, i was making a joke about your joke...goes back a few days
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
ahh, is that what it was
in the olden-time days, we just called it "masturbatin’ " But “depleting a post” seems fair enough… ; )
I think we could get a better deal
Kouz and Jackson for Seth Smith…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
If the Rockies wanted a 3Bman who could OBP under .300
with “teens” HR power, they could have just gotten Jose Lopez.
Oh wait — they did!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh yeah, forgot about that deal...
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
Unfortunately, at this point I think the Rockies have enough potential 3B options on their MLB roster
So I think they’ll pass on Kouz.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Dec 17, 2010 10:39 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
do the rockies still have lots of groundball pitchers? would kouz's superior defense play well there?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Well, in 2010 their pitching staff was tied for the 4th highest GB% in the majors, FWIW.
And none of their 3B options are any good outside of Ian Stewart, in my opinion (and he might be at 2B anway), so maybe they could be convinced to add Kouz and drop someone else.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Dec 17, 2010 11:06 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
not to mention
I think playing in the rockies stadium would make Kouz look like a stud. his hr numbers would go way up
Kouz and Jackson for Seth Smith is something that exists only in the dreams of ANers.
Kinda like all the wild proposals for Shin Soo Choo.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 12:15 AM PST up reply actions
I really don't see it as that lopsided of a deal...
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 18, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
I base my dreams on the fact that the Rockies have yet to let Seth Smith get to 400 ABs in any of the last three years
But yeah, it is only a dream.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
He's about as good as Kouz.
The difference is that Kouz will cost them around 2 million while Smith makes the league minimum. A Kouz for Smith straight up deal is already looking iffy at that point. Add Jackson to the equation and clearly the Rockies will laugh you off the phone.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
Why? Do you think they are going to stick Bautista back at third, despite his defensive woes?
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Dec 18, 2010 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
If you have a pitching rotation as good as the A’s have on paper (and while it’s not necessarily the greatest of all time, or even necessarily top notch, it’s still very darn good with quite a lot of potential—barring injuries of course), then a respectable batting order is generally good enough.
While I generally only lurk here, primarily because I am a very busy guy, but also because y’all are far too ahead of my level in being wonkish stat mongerers (and I say that with respect), I have been an A’s fan since 1981 (and I’d rather be an A’s fan than an Athletic supporter ;-) ) and I have always understood that pitching and defense are about 90% of the game.
Sure, home runs and offensive fireworks are great, but I’d rather the A’s win 90 games by scores of 5-2, 4-1, or 3-2 than win half of their games 10-9 and lose the other half 15-12 or something like that as was the case more or less in 2000.
Winning all your games 20-0 would be ideal, of course, but that’s not gonna happen.
Of course, I, too, think we have a decent shot at convincing Andrian Beltre to put his John Hancock on a long term contract, but I’ll wait and see if it actually happens.
BTW, Nico, great fan post, and I actually shared this one on Facebook, which is pretty rare for me. :-)
...besides, polls are always an imperfect reflection of complex reality!
Woot! Thanks. ;-)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Average offense should be fine for us
League average offense with our pitching should take us to the playoffs. However with a high likelihood if injuries we are in a whole world of hurt… oh and I agree with Nico… Rajai trade was a blunder…
How about we aim for league average wOBA, instead of wRC+?
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Dec 18, 2010 6:32 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Wait...isn't that the same thing?
A full time A's fan in Portland who spends part of his time on AN.
Not so much tweeting as squawking: http://www.twitter.com/yusebio
How so? Asking sincerely.
I was under the impression we did have a league average team of position players when you include their defensive contributions, for sure, but considering only their offense, I thought we were pretty horrible.
Can you point me to the proper offense-only stats that says we were at league average?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
Here.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=1&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010
Sort by wRC+, which is a park-adjusted wOBA. We’re one percentage point below average.
Serious question: HOW?
This is a team that batted Suzuki and Kouzmanoff in the heart of the order much of the season, along with epic slugger Ryan Sweeney. How’d we do it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Cust was pretty amazing.
Top 25 hitter in all of baseball, once you adjust for the park. Barton too. Also, we had some historically bad offenses this year (Mariners, Astros) which pushed the average down.
Well thank God we got rid of Cust, then.
The guy ended up costing $2.5M, too!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not a fan of getting rid of him. Batting-wise, he and Barton are very similar.
But they clearly needed some contact hitters, too. Too bad we couldn’t has two DH’s.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
True, that
But if we could bat both Cust and Matsui, and not put either in the field…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
There was some talk early last season that would have corrected all of out LF defensive problems.
I was hoping BB could get the Commish to allow us to play BOTH Cust and E-Patsy in LF at the same time. That way we could use E-Patsy’s speed to field the ball, let him HAND the ball to Cust and have Jack make the throw in. Voila! A complete Left Fielder!
can't wait till the cust haters read this!
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Dec 18, 2010 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
So, we're at wRC+ of 99. Vs. all teams, which includes NL.
Vs. the AL, we are ahead of only Indians, Orioles, Angels, Mariners. Which is the answer, partly, to Nico’s q., I think.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
So, just for the fun of it, I played with some numbers
Imagine a stat called ‘total offensive efficiency’, = #Runs/#PA’s. I did the AL only, so far.
As you might expect, the Yankees rated highest, at .1343. That is, they scored 13.43% as many runs as they had plate appearances.
Following them, in order, and all between .1279 and .1229 were: TB, BOS, TEX, MIN, TOR, CWS.
DET is next, at .1190.
Then come some teams that didn’t do all that well at converting plate appearances into runs:
LAAA: .1118,
KC: .1088,
OAK: .1084,
CLE: .1047
And then we get to the Mariners. They were, truly, a special case. Even though they had the fewest plate appearances of any AL team, their efficiency at turning those plate appearances into runs was: .0857!
Even if you sort of zero out for power, by dividing runs scored by total bases, and even though the Mariners had by far the fewest total bases, they only converted .279 of all their bases into runs. No other team except Baltimore converted at a rate below .300.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
I'd like to see how this compares with batting runs produced
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Dec 18, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
go to fangraphs team advanced stats
At least I am guessing you mean RC? wRC, wRAA, wOBA and wRC+ are all there.
I used my quick-and-dirty formulas above because I could figure them myself…
I think it’s always helpful to just think about the bottom line: an offense wants to score runs, so comparing the total opportunities each team had to be at bat compared with the actual total runs scored (whether by error, hit, walk, hit batsman, whatever) should give an idea how efficiently the team did at this job.
Say, for example, the Mariners had scored runs at a league average rate per plate appearance- with their low total late appearances, they would have scored 695 runs, or 182 more than they did; 1+ run per game!
In the case of the A’s, much as we lamented their awful offense, had they scored at an AL average per plate appearance, they would have scored 47 more runs than they did, which makes me think with all we’ve added and not playing the matts, we might be all right!
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
Right, so wRC/PA
A’s – .11017
Angels – .10511
Heh, predictably slegnA outperform the projection.
Shits and giggles.
Yankees – .13543
Bos – .13423
Tex – .12426
Sea – .08711
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Dec 18, 2010 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Er, turning a plate appearance into a run definitionally gets you more plate appearances
You could actually just sort the offenses by number of PA and you’d have quite an accurate proxy for run scoring.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
"90% of life is showing up!"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, that is true. Sort of. The order actually varies a bit from actual runs scored, and the variance is way lower than the variance in runs scored. Ergo, why I did the divide, to see how much variance there was in runs scored per plate appearance.
Differential between lowest plate appearances (SEA) and highest (NYY): .94% as many.
Differential between lowest runs scored and highest (same two teams): .59%
Differential in team wRC+ (same two teams): 69%.
Differential between the ratios I did quick and dirty above: 64%.
And all the teams that ranked below average in wRC+ are, in the same order, ranked lowest by the simple math above. There is a bit of variance in the order at the top of the AL compared to wRC+, with Tampa doing much better at converting their PA’s into runs than in the team wRC+ standings.
So, I can just do the simple math, and come pretty close to predicting wRC+, which is a stat that I don’t have any inkling how it’s actually generated, even after reading endless definitional stuff on Fangraphs and The Book, etc. Ergo, I prefer a number that kinda works and is easy to figure to one I can not generate myself.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 19, 2010 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
Against Righties? Yeah.
We have a lineup that is definitely going to change quite a bit between LHP and RHP…
I mean, Ellis still hits the shit outta Lefties, and should definitely be around 5 or 6 when they’re starting…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
Against LHPs I'd go something like:
Crisp – CF
Barton – 1B
Matsui – DH
Willingham – LF
Ellis – 2B
Kouzmanoff – 3B
DeJesus – RF
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS
I’d also give Rosales about 1/2 the starts, giving Pennington some regular days off.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think it's more likely
to see Rosales at 2B than SS next year
If Pennington manages 17 HRs, I’ll vow to consume an article of clothing to achieve a humorous effect --Joey C.
by cityplANner on Dec 17, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
Eh, with Pennington's labrum deal
He’ll probably need time off more than Ellis from the get go…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
When Ellis and Pennington are both healthy, though,
I’d start Rosales at SS against some LHPs and definitely not sit Ellis on those days.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If we don't sign or trade for another 3B
what about seeing Rosales at 3rd as well. This way he could get somehwere between 80-100 starts. He is productive when in the game and healthy. I really like him as a flex infield option
His So rate was high, but he just seems to be a real solid option on the infield
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 18, 2010 12:20 AM PST up reply actions
The main problem is that both he and Kouz hit LHP better
You wouldn’t want to sit Kouz against a LHP. Whereas Pennington hits RHP better, so it works out better.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That doesn't look bad to me
Add Beltre, and the A’s have to be favorites to win the West.
I’ll probably take flak for just being a Giants fan, but I really do believe that the A’s are putting together a potential dream 2011 season.
""I’d like to be a crossword clue one day. I want to be in The New York Times’s Sunday edition. Right now, the clue ‘Giants great’ is always Mel Ott. I want my clue to be down, not across. The down ones are usually harder. And when I’m the clue, I’ll fill it in — just that one — and frame it. " - Brian Wilson.
Overall I'm pretty pleased with what Beane has done thus far
We have a lot of injury risk, but we also have decent back-ups around the diamond. Plus if (and this is admitedly a big if) we stay healthier than we are accustomed to, then I wouldn’t be surprised if this team, as constructed, won about 88 games next year.
Now we just need Beltre, who we should be able to afford thanks to Beane’s shrewd moves.
Awesome write-up Nico.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Dec 17, 2010 10:31 PM PST via mobile reply actions
CUST AND RAJAI WERE GETTING TO OLD TO KEEP AROUND
I still think Rajai can be an everyday CFer leadoff man, but Beane is in love w/ Crisp so Davis is wasted just sitting on the bench
Cust is old news and I don’t think he and Beane liked each other anyways, so…
Conor Jackson sucks!
Yeah, Cust was too old
I keep forgetting how much older he is than Matsui, can you remind me?
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 10:47 PM PST up reply actions
I agree
Bob Feller completed about 10 more games than he won. Strickouts definitely helped him. Makes you wonder about the logic of Geren’s “Almighty 100” pitchcount.
13 to be exact
And that’s nuts…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 17, 2010 11:00 PM PST up reply actions
Well at least the subject line fits the handle...
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 17, 2010 11:42 PM PST up reply actions
Crisp isn't starting because Beane is in love with him
Crisp is simply a better player than Davis
Offseason
I think that Beltre will either sign with the A’s or will sign somewhere else for a huge amount. I really don’t care about Cust signing for less. I think that the whole Iwakuma thing was a success, it made him unavailable for the other 29 teams, he was not going to be successful anyways. David Dejesus was a great deal. Rajai deal hurts (loved to see him play). Matsui will bring people in the seats and put balls in the seats. Willingham was a good move, it might hurt us if he is a rental and H-Rod gets control. The Harden signing was good for depth but really was a non-factor, but it is nice to have him back (healthy). I don’t even know if McCarthy will make the 25 man roster. Overall I would give the off-season a “B” overall. If we sign Beltre, then the offseason grade goes to an “A”
"Holy Toledo"-Bill King
by A's fan since birth on Dec 17, 2010 11:47 PM PST reply actions
Iwakuma a success?
Why would you want to block other teams from a guy that “was not going to be successful anyways”. I feel as if your are right about him not panning out in the bigs. I actually wouldn’t have minded some other team sinking some dough on him.
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 17, 2010 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
Logic is good. And you have it! :)
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 17, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, it makes perfect sense for the A's to bid 19 million on someone they think sucks in order to block other teams and risk pissing off an entire league/country.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 12:00 AM PST up reply actions
The only thing that I'll miss about Rajai is
the way he made pitchers sweat when he was on base!
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
Only meant that he was great when on base,
getting there sometimes was ugly, and it was painful watching him play the the OF. If not for his speed he would have been really bad.
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
I Would conclude that neither Rajai Davis or Jack Cust could be seen as blunders.
If we had not replaced them with better players, then i would have to agree; however, at this point, and after acquiring Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui it is nearly impossible for me to conclude those two losses as blunders. Could the A’s have received more for Davis? Maybe! However, i don’t mind receiving the two relief prospects from Toronto we got
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 18, 2010 12:05 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
He replaced Rajai Davis with Conor Jackson and Jack Cust with Hideki Matsui
Each of those players is both more expensive and worse than the guy he is replacing.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This is off topic, but...
Can anyone give me a quick rundown on the Stoen Base statistics for DeJesus, Matsui, and Willingham? I’m guessing (without looking this up myself) than none of them are speedsters. Am I wrong?
...besides, polls are always an imperfect reflection of complex reality!
Not too good at all: 11 total in 2010
2010 totals
Dejesus: 3, Matsui: 0, Willingham: 8
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 18, 2010 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
We still have
Pennington who is capable of 30-40 SBs, and Crisp who could swipe 30
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 18, 2010 12:14 AM PST up reply actions
Pennington had 29 in 2010 and Crisp had 32 in less than half a season.
I meant to switch that Crisp 30-40 (maybe more), and Pennington about 30 in 2011
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 18, 2010 12:16 AM PST up reply actions
I assume you are factoring in injuries for Crisp?
He stole 32 in 75 games last year. Crisp could steal 50+ if he plays 140 games.
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 18, 2010 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
Why such a big concern for Crisp injuries?
If I recall a lot of the time he spent DL last year was because of injury sliding? That is not something that is typically recurrent.
I think maybe there a\was hamstring stuff too and that is definitely a concern long term.
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
He's hurt every year.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What kind?
Are they play hard, run into a wall type or the recurring hammy or tendentious type? I really don’t know, but I do see players like him that play 100% all the time getting hurt.
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
I fear a lot of it has been, IIRC, soft tissue, e.g., hamstring, calf.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's not good:)
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
{no sicko}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Stoen or Stolen, it's not off-topic at all
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:41 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks
It’s not a huge problem then, as long as Crisp is healthy and the A’s have at least one or two players capable of stealing 30-50, I think the offense is multidimensional enough. This is one place where Rajai Davis will be sorely missed, but the potential pros outweigh the potential cons.
Of course, this metric is much more variable until the Beltre situation plays out.
OTOH, steroids or no, the 1989 A’s had everything going for them: Great pitching, great defense (Canseco actually took his fielding seriously until about mid 1990), and awesome offense that was multidimensional. Not only could Canseco, McGwire, Dave Henderson, and Dave Parker each hit about 20-30 Home Runs each, but Rickey Henderson was still good for 50-75 SBs a season, Lansford, Canseco, Weiss, Gallego, and Javier could each steal between 15-30. That’s a fairly versatile set of weapons.
I realize that many consider SBs to be of less importance these days with the trend towards smaller ballparks, but I maintain that they’re an essential part of the game (recall how Rickey Henderson’s antics on Second Base in game 3 of the ’89 Series forced Kelly Downes to serve Canseco a fat pitch that he clobbered into the stands driving in three runs).
Still, I agree with Nico’s analysis more or less, except on Iwakuma. I would call that one a wash.
...besides, polls are always an imperfect reflection of complex reality!
Why does it seem like
Everyone has a huge crush on Beltre. Is it just me or does he only perform during a contract year? I’m just going off the top of my head, but I remember when Seattle was trying to unload him before his contract was up, and he only broke out during his contract year with LA. Not super impressed with the guy.
by sza34 on Dec 18, 2010 6:17 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I will now direct your attention to my FanPost on Beltre
Shameless plug? Yes?
But seriously, it looks like he may (possibly) be performing for playoff contenders, not contract years.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Dec 18, 2010 6:48 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
He's amazing in contract years
And good to great every other year. His last year in Seattle was so so but in LA and Boston he had career years his last year hitting wise. Year in year out he is best defensive 3B and good for 780-810 OPS with 20-25 HRs. I’ll take that over kouz
WTF GEREN?!?!?!
by robbo650 on Dec 18, 2010 6:49 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Plus, it means that the Rangers and Angels didn't make "a splash" while we would have brought in DeJesus, Willingham and Beltre.
It benefits us in more ways than one, I think.
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 18, 2010 5:46 PM PST up reply actions
yup its a 6-8 game swing
in terms of WAR. Since more than likely an AL West is gonna end up with him.
WTF GEREN?!?!?!
And Godzilla!
Go Dubs!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I dont know why
but the outfield of Willingham, Crisp, and Dejesus get me a little excited for the 2011 Oakland A’s season.
If Beltre can be added, I do think that would be the cherry on top …. but I’d still love one more move. Just don’t know for who or what!
Cust a blunder?
I’m not sure how Cust can be a blunder, yet Matsui, DeJesus, and Willingham be bonanzas. Implies that we should have brought Cust back even with the other guys in here, and that would be insane.
To me, Cust/Matsui is one move. We dealt Jack Cust for Hideki Matsui, and threw in 2 mil. I don’t want to start that argument and I’m sure most of AN votes that as a blunder (I would say Bonanza, personally)…but it can’t be both.
Nico's point was that Cust was dumped before Matsui had been signed, and
Cust was dumped while Jackson was tendered.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:17 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly
Cust was dumped with no one to fill the role. Like him or not, that was a dumb move,( or at best VERY risky).
Confident about Hidecki
There were still some FA DH options that we liked better than Cust when the non-tender deadline approached. It was a risk, but hardly a blunder.
I've said before that I have doubts about spending lots of $$
and especially lots of years on Beltré. This is not because, as some say, he only performs in contract years. It’s because as a 13 year MLB veteran he’s got a lot of mileage in that soon-to-be 32 year old body. I think anyone who signs him for a long contract (and it’s been reported that he wants at least 5 guaranteed years) is going to regret it for at least half of the contract. I think the years, more than the $$, may help explain why offers haven’t exactly been pouring in for this always defensively excellent third baseman.
The A’s were widely reported to have offered 5 years and a total of $64 million very early in the off-season – far short of the 5 years adn $90 million (like Torii Hunter) that Beltré reportedly was seeking). If that was the only offer he received during November it’s no surprise that he didn’t respond, regardless of who made the offer.
Now it’s being reported that the Angels have offered 5 years and $70 million. That’s better than what the A’s reportedly offered, but still nowhere near what Beltré is said to be seeking. (FWIW Rosenthal has said that Beltré has lowered his asking price to 5 years and $85 million.) LA Times article linked here also claims that the Angels’ offer has not been accepted…and supposedly Beltré is looking for 6 years!
So it looks like Beltré has only received 2 offers this off-season, neither being to his liking.Obviously, unless someone offers more he’s going to have to accept whatever he can get. My main point still is that the only thing we know about his rejection of the A’s last year and this year (so far) has much more to do with years and money than anything else.
Like Beltre or not, he stays healthy.
If he is good for three of the 5 years, and helps us get into the playoffs, then regresses to the value of a starter/sub, he is well worth the contract. By 2014 HOPEFULLY we will have a replacement at 3rd base, and maybe Beltre can move to a fulltime DH role.
Nice run down of the situation thus far
Key points…
The A’s have serious interest in Beltre.
If the newsies have it right, the Angels currently hold high bid.
Any move the A’s can make to better themselves at the expense of the Angels (or any other AL West) is a great move.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Allegedly 5/70
Which means it took this long for Billy’s 5/64 offer to be beaten, and it’s barely by $1M per year.
5/75 should be put on the table now.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
I saw that
I’m heavily leaning towards the opinion that should Oakland fail to land Beltre and he signs with the Angels it will undermine everything the A’s have done this offseason. It’s rare for a team to have the chance at a knock out blow before the season even begins. The A’s have got to take advantage of this opportunity.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Beltre's non-acceptance tells me he is inviting the A's to beat the offer.
Moreno’s statement that the offer is unlikely to increase tells me the offer was made partly to force Oakland to spend more to land Beltre.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
+ 1
When its time to shoot, shoot... don't talk
by Charlie O the Mule on Dec 18, 2010 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Or More
I’d actually consider going straight up to 5/80. I know this goes up 10 M on the Angels offer and if we believe Moreno that the offer won’t increase, then maybe not necessary to go up to 80. But, for me, I think that an offer of 5/80 would get much quicker resolution by either getting Beltre to accept or pushing the Angels to a higher amount. I think 80 should be the limit though.
Also, since I believe Beltre’s family is in LA, and that he has said he’d like to go back to LA, the A’s might actually have to beat his offer by a good amount, more than 1M per year in order to get the advantage. That’s also why I think it makes sense to go straight to 80 and just try to get it done!
by longtimeasfan on Dec 18, 2010 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
seconded
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
We said almost the same thing longtimeasfan
my post way up the thread, that is. 5/80 and take it or leave it, son!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Nico, I think I pretty much agree with every point you made
1) Rajai- I don’t care that Conor’s offensive upside is higher than Raj’s. We have no idea how healthy Jackson will ever be again. We have no idea if Sweeney can stay healthy (especially given that he didn’t get his other knee operated on). We almost know for certain that given his all-out play, face-first slides and delicate build, Coco will go down at some point. Other than occasional hammy troubles, Raj has been pretty durable. To me, this is the biggest blunder of the offseason, and potentially very damaging…
2) Jackson. See above, but also, we could have done to him what we did to Cust last year, and still had no one else pick him up. So, obviously, when the A’s did this to Cust, it wasn’t ‘just business’, but actually was meant to give him an idea of his tenuous worth to the organization…
3) Cust/Matsui. We’ll see. Matsui had a higher strikeout rate last year (than his very steady career rate) and fewer called strikeouts, so he may be losing bat speed. I hope not. Letting Cust go for no return is dumber than letting Davis go for almost no return. but then, maybe we already knew the highest offer he would get was below what the low end of arb would be (that’s how it ended up, anyway), so that would have backfired- tendering him and trading him… As to potential value to the team, I think elcroata’s piece makes clear that the team was probably looking for someone who makes more contact, rather than keeping another guy who just gets on base a lot.
Pretty happy with the rest of the trades, pick-ups etc (although I’d have preferred to give up Ross before he self-destructs than Henry).
Go get us Beltre, Billy!
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:32 AM PST reply actions
I am with you on the Rajai trade
Very frustrating indeed.
by A's Fan in Virginia on Dec 18, 2010 8:04 AM PST up reply actions
So, grading Billy just in terms of filling the A's needs, he gets a B from AN mostly
Now, once the hot stove league finishes playing out, I’d love to know how AN thinks he grades compared to the rest of the teams and what was actually available via trade or FA signings.
Who else has done a lot? Who didn’t/couldn’t pull the trigger when they needed to?
So far, I don’t think anyone else has helped themselves more frugally to address their needs than Billy. And obviously, we can’t compete with Theo. And even with Boston’s money, they may be pretty well hamstrung going forward with those massive contracts… So far, I’d give Billy an A compared to the other GM’s, but it’s still only a B compared to the A’s needs.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 7:55 AM PST reply actions
I am still upset over Rajai being traded
I did not and still cannot understand why the A’s would trade a player who led the team in batting average and stolen bases this past season as well as being a positive influence for the team. I feel Rajai was coming into his own and under Rickey’s wing, could have been an extremely valuable long-term asset to the club. In addition, he was my favorite current A’s player…..
by A's Fan in Virginia on Dec 18, 2010 8:03 AM PST reply actions
I don't believe he had a place on the team except for Bob Geren being unable to resist playing him
instead of using him as a defensive replacement.
"So, the A's new organizational philosophy involves adding Viking relievers? God save us all."
"Berserkers: the new market inefficiency."
-LonestarBall
Coco's understudy, pinch runner for Matsui, defensive replacement for Willingham.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Exactly, what a great guy to have off the bench.
To me Rajai’s trade has been the only blunder of the off-season.
I understand that you revere him as a fan. That's fine. Me, too. And he had value (that mostly gets pooh-poohed on AN.)
But most people who pay close attention to baseball stats feel that OBP is way more important than BA. Raj wouldn’t/couldn’t walk, so his BA of .284 (highest among regulars on the team) translated into an OBP of only .320, which was ahead of only Pennington, Suzuki, and Kouzmanoff among the regular starters. That’s an unacceptable number for a leadoff hitter. It’s OK for a fast #9 hitter like Pennington. And most everyone would be hard-pressed to argue that either Kouz or Zuke had decent years at the plate…
I hope Toronto can somehow teach him to bunt. With his speed, he might convert 50% of his bunts into hits.
I’m upset too, and especially upset that we didn’t get much at all for him…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
His career OBP against LHP is .347,
making him a very viable platoon player, as well as an excellent pinch runner and defensive replacement.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree. Platoon him, don't dump him. Didn't happen.
And to compound the error, signing gimpy Sweeney, who is going to go down with the unrepaired knee, and taking a flyer on Conor who could have been non-tendered at almost no risk, while ignoring Raj’s very versatile values is inexplicable to me, too.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:44 AM PST up reply actions
My beef with Cust
This might fall prone to trusting my eyes and being based on small sample sizes, yada yada yada, but it seems like he’s always been a guy who murders mediocre to good fastballs and walks vs off speed guys with no control. The problem is, he seems to have no chance against any great lefty and no chance against guys with excellent fastballs or excellent offspeed stuff. Of course, this describes every hitter in baseball, but Cust, against great pitching, has always seemed to be a special kind of fail. If you are building a team to win you need guys that will help you beat playoff pitching, not just guys who will earn you a lot of win shares vs Seattle and KC all year.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
Furthermore,
I think Matsui, Willingham, and DeJesus being “BONANZA” is mutually exclusive with Cust being “FAIL” Those guys are all DH types covering the position from both sides of the plate— And you still have Jack Cust Jr (er… Chris Carter) waiting in the wings. At this point, there is no point in having Cust when you have Chris Carter available, who figures to produce at roughly whatever Cust was producing if thrusted into the DH role, and even if he were to falter they would be valuable experience ABs.
I’m happy with DeJesus and Willingham, but I’m also a little WTF about it all as I’d like to see Carter get playing time this year straight out of camp, but I’m ok with collecting more bats in general. I’m wondering if Daric Barton to 3B to open up 1B is still an option?
Trading Davis was meh; someone had to go. For all the people that are upset about that, I haven’t really seen one person point out (though I didn’t look that hard) that it was basically him or Sweeney at that point in the crowded OF. There’s a lot of stuff I love about Rajai, but I’m fine with Sweeney as the backup CF.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
Why is it between Davis and Sweeney, when there's also Conor Jackson?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Daric Barton's defensive play at 1B makes all the other IF players better. Carter's would make them all worser. Much Much Worser.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
OK
But look how bad the 3B bat was :-/. There are always tradeoffs. If Daric Barton could play 3B slightly below average, I think Carter + Barton in lineup would probably outweigh the defense they’d give up.
That’s assuming productive Carter. Can’t assume that, but in a scenario where the A’s win the World Series, it’s what has to happen.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
There have been like 60 gazillion posts comments etc that directly rebut this idea
1) Our pitchers lived off of the best infield in the majors last year.
2) Our offense was below average, but not historically inept like, say, Seattle’s.
3) Weakening our infield defense in order to marginally add power therefore would weaken the team, even if Barton could magically learn to field third base during the season, and Carter could suddenly become an average 1B fielder.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 19, 2010 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
I heartily disagree with this premise:
there is no point in having Cust when you have Chris Carter available, who figures to produce at roughly whatever Cust was producing if thrusted into the DH role
Cust would probably produce a line of around .250/.385/.420 (and that’s guessing low on the slugging) while Carter, DHing for the first time in his life, might produce a line of around .230/.300/.450 (and that’s guessing high on the slugging).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think Carter projects that low
And even if he does, he needs to get that experience so he’s productive down the line. He’s getting old and needs the at-bats, and his upside goes much higher. Sure he started 0-33 but he MASHED after that. He just seems like he’s a major league ready bat who got off to slow starts. Its time to see what you have; there’s no point in blocking him.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
ZiPS projects Carter to hit .229/.314/.427
That’s essentially replacement level for a DH. Completely unacceptable for anyone fancying themself a playoff contender.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yes I'm saying I don't believe ZIPS
I figure he’ll either be significantly higher than that in which case he’ll stay in the lineup or he’ll be significantly lower than that and the A’s have suitable replacements, even without Cust. The point is he has high upside, so they can play him if he’s awesome— or if he sucks they can fall back on any any of the corner outfielders they’ve collected
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
... what "suitable replacements"?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Also like what I said above
When you aren’t the Yankees, your World Series wins will come when everything comes together and just goes your way. Simply put, the only way they are going to play better than the Yankees is if moves like plugging carter into the lineup pays off… i.e. they probably won’t win the world series, but most people believe Carter is eventually capable of hitting 35 HRs with a low average but high obp and huge iso slg. In scenarios that include Cust or Carter sucking, they won’t win the World Series. Their only chance is to plug in Carter and hope he maxes out.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
Yeah, that assertion is absolutely absurd.
You might as well say that Yuniesky Betancourt can hit as well as Pujols.
lol
I really, really don’t get all the Jack Cust love. He’s a good hitter. He’s not a fantastic hitter. The bar he set is not too high. Carter has mashed at every level in the minors with pretty much the exact same skillset as Cust. There probably isn’t a more comparable hitter in baseball to Cust than Carter. I hope Zips doesn’t overvalue the small sample size of last years cup of coffee in the majors— an 0 for 33 streak smacks of mostly bad luck with some anxiety thrown in for good measure. I see more upside than Cust, and the fallback options don’t drop you off a cliff.
When you don’t have the most talent in the league, you have to maximize your variance. It’s a simple concept from game theory and gambling. Teams like the A’s can’t settle for hitters like Cust who are proven boom/bust with a trend of not being able to hit excellent pitching at all because it’s a recipe for consistency and later failure. They need to gamble on the prospects, like Carter, who show 40 HR potential. If he hits that potential, it’s found money (and the only scenario that ends in World Series potential). If he misses, they probably weren’t going to win anyways.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
Put another way...
If your goal is to win the World Series, it’s far better to project as an 83-win team with an SD of 10 than it is to project as an 86-win team with an SD of 3.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
The Rajai Davis move wasn't/isn't confusing.
1) David DeJesus is our back up CFer – and then Ryan Sweeney. They are both easily equal-to-superior fielders.
2) Really fast dudes who can hit .270 and are terrible at everything else are also known as “pinch runners.”
3) Fans of the move (ooh, ooh, me, me, pick me! pick me!) were telling all of you people that Beane was bolstering the bullpen because someone was going to be traded later on down the road. BAM. The Davis trade makes the loss of H-Rod way more palatable.
4) I think the biggest thing lost in this is that the relievers we got are actually kind of awesome. Farquhar has dropped a little, but both could be on the roster within half a season, and both have good upside. Relievers on any team who crack the Top 20 prospect list are nothing to turn your nose up at.
5) Even at the time, Davis just simply wasn’t guaranteed much playing time. He had two guys ahead of him on the depth chart (rightly so) and Chris Carter looming in the wings. You’re essentially betting against 3 players to get any significant production out of him, and now that the A’s have Willingham the proposition of keeping Davis is infinitely more clunky.
6) The stark reality is that Connor Jackson just isn’t going to land you two high-to-medium-high ceiling relievers. Davis was the OF drawing interest, and Beane strengthened his already strong bullpen while hardly effecting the OF at all.
The Davis trade was and is drenched in WIN.
Mmm...
1) Davis is the best of the 3.
2) Guys who OBP .347 against LHP, play above average defense, and can steal 50 bases in a full season are called “good platoon players.”
3) The bullpen is almost identical with or without H-Rodriguez, who is a “back of the pen” guy at this point.
4) If so, then I’ll change my mind later about the trade. My impression, at the time of the trade (which is when it should be judged), is that they both kind of suck, or are “ok.” If the A’s know more, then more power to ’em.
5) Crisp’s injury history alone suggests Davis would have gotten ample playing time.
6) If you want high-to-medium ceiling relievers, here’s a thought: Don’t trade away Sam Demel for the charred remains of Conor Jackson!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
but ya gotta love the phrase
“drenched in win”
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Dec 18, 2010 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
Indeed I do.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree with Nico's assesment
adding this – the free agent market for CF is barren this year, which drives up the value of a Rajai Davis-type and makes him worth more than two ‘maybe’ relievers. The A’s didn’t get a lot in return there. A platoon role is ideal for Davis.
Those relievers are awful
Magnuson is Jeffrey Gray 2.0. Farquhar at least has vaguely MLB-quality stuff (though it’s hardly extraordinary), but he also can’t hit the broad side of a barn because his mechanics are all cracked out from switching his release point constantly.
Those guys virtually epitomize the term “roster filler.” Winston Abreu is a far better minor league reliever and he was available for a song as a free agent.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're awful
I didn’t read any scouting reports at the time (or after) about the deal that even hinted at them being “awful.” I read the concerns about Farquhar, but he’s still got the big upside. But this really is only rearranging the pool chairs at the Best Western.
You can combat my point with hyperbole, I’m quite the fan of the sport, but the Davis trade basically makes sense on every level and I think people who don’t like it are latently invoking visions of Rickey Henderson when the think of Rajai Davis and need to quit romanticizing a generally below-average platoon outfielder with a good 40-yard dash.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
No
He does not have “big upside.” He has roughly the upside of Fernando Rodney, who has never in his life produced a 1 WAR season. Upside-wise, that’s as low as you can go and still be talking English.
Neither of those guys is in the Oakland top 20. Both are worse than multiple righthanded relief prospects (not to mention the actual players in the actual A’s bullpen) who were already within the A’s system. I’d take Fautino de los Santos, Paul Smyth and Connor Hoehn over these chumps without batting an eye, and the only reason I wouldn’t add Mickey Storey to that list is that I think he’s injured.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
R.J. Anderson from Fangraphs doesn'
“Magnuson is the oldest of the pair at age 25. He hails from Canada and stands six-seven. After the Jays drafted him in the supplemental round of the 2007 draft (out of Louisville) they attempted to convert him to the rotation (as they are wont to do with college relievers; i.e. Dave Bush and Brett Cecil) the transformation failed and Magnuson went back to relieving. His fastball can touch the mid-90s while his breaking pitch remains a work in progress, but his minor league strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.3 this season suggests he could be ready for the big leagues in 2011.
Farquhar stands roughly eight inches shorter than his trade mate and had a rougher season in Double-A. His walk rates have sat above four per nine ever since hitting High-A and his strikeouts have dwindled at each subsequent level. Marc Hulet ranked him as the tenth-best prospect in the system earlier this season, noting his potential to become a late-inning force while also describing how he gets results by writing, "The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot." He too figures to see some action in 2011.
Some may take exception to calling non-elite minor relievers prospects, but few can take exception to the line of thinking employed by either team here. Davis was likely in the fast lane to a non-tender and the Jays must like him enough that they wanted to avoid the rat race that is an open market. The A’s, meanwhile, get a heck of a return on investment from Davis’ tenure. Two and three-quarter seasons resulting in more than five and a half wins as well as two relief prospects for the cost of a waiver claim."
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
oops... that was supposed to say "doesn't agree with you"
and then include a link.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
None of that speaks to either the upside of either player or to their comparative value to other Oakland prospects
and, of course, there’s also this:
Some may take exception to calling non-elite minor relievers prospects
I being part of “some,” obviously.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
By saying that they both will/could be ready for the bigs
by 2011 speaks volumes. I’m not comparing them other internal relievers, per se, I’m making the larger point that they made H-Rod more expendable and that, by and large, they do not “suck.”
It may be a testament to just how many decent relief prospects Oakland has – but I’m going to err on the side of reason and go with “they don’t suck.”
sleepingcobra: 2
PaulThomas: 0
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
Testing blockquote
sleepingcobra: 2
PaulThomas: 0
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
Preview is your friend
You can always use preview if you want to test if something works.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Are you twelve years old?
Serious question. Because whatever your calendar age, you seriously need to grow up.
Saying that they “could be ready for the bigs in 2011” says very little other than that they pitched in the high minors in 2010. Which we already knew. Nothing about upside. You’ll notice that the entire article does not contain a word on that topic, because there is nothing positive to say.
They’re standard middle relief chaff. Every team has pitchers like that floating around their high minors. None of them are worth diddly squat in a trade. These guys are the equivalent of Connor Robertson, the forgotten eighth man of the Dan Haren trade. Or Graham Godfrey and Kristian Bell. Or any of the dozens of other utterly fungible minor league relievers used as “returns” in trades which any objective observer would refer to by their scientific name: salary dumps.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Dec 19, 2010 7:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, a whole lot of this.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 7:41 PM PST up reply actions
You're honestly not making a point and pretending you are.
Let me demonstrate:
Saying that they "could be ready for the bigs in 2011" says very little other than that they pitched in the high minors in 2010… You’ll notice that the entire article does not contain a word on that topic, because there is nothing positive to say.They pitched in AA. But let’s just ignore that you glossed over that and pretend that they pitched in AAA. Even at that, a scant handful of players make it to the bigs, let a lone stick. The inference from the Fangraphs article (and just about every single scouting report I saw) are essentially treatises on their upside: decent major league relievers, one of which having the potential to become a “late-inning force” (read: set-up/closer). Just because they didn’t use the word “upside” (or some insipid C+ B+ A+ rating system) doesn’t mean they’re not talking about upside, and it’s obfuscatory to paint it as such.
Your second paragraph is based on the misleading dismissiveness in the first, so I can rightly ignore that. Inasmuch as references to my age, I suppose I had that coming with my ‘keeping score’ silliness, which I plan to continue, at least until I’m 13.
By the way, I was wondering, what did you think of the Davis trade?
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 9:05 PM PST up reply actions
Okay, sure
So, we’ve got R.J. Anderson (not a scout) paraphrasing some year-old comments by Marc Hulet (not a scout, also a fan of the Blue Jays) which may or may not be based on actual conversations with scouts (we really have no idea, because there’s no sourcing to those comments) who might once have said something about Farquhar’s upside being a late-inning guy. You’re right— it is a sort of an assessment of his upside. Forgive me for being so underwhelmed by the quality of the thirdhand hearsay evidence marshalled in support that it failed to even register with me.
Meanwhile we also have his numbers from this year, when he walked 42 batters in 76.2 innings (and don’t bother calling it a small sample size, because last year was worse)— that while repeating a level. The list of pitchers who were successful in MLB— forget closers, I mean better than replacement level— with that kind of walk rate can easily enough be enumerated:
Carlos Marmol
…
… yeah, that’s it. Is he Carlos Marmol? No. Craig Kimbrel, even? No. He’s got nowhere near the quality of their stuff. He’s just a guy who can’t throw strikes.
Putting a guy like that as your closer or in a key setup role is, unless he strikes out hitters at the level of a Marmol, suicidal, because he will constantly be walking tying and/or winning runs to the plate and onto base.
I’m no great fan of Rajai Davis but, as I said in the comments to that very Fangraphs article, “Rajai Davis for nothing” is not a good trade. Davis seems to have been replaced with Jackson, which is essentially taking a guy with the skills you want in a backup outfielder and replacing him with overpaid crap. You seem to want to spin this as some master plan, but really you could take it from either a single-transaction view or a big-picture view. They both suck.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ooo...
1) This simply isn’t the case.
2) Yeah, yeah, we’re both trying to make him look good/bad. Fact of the matter is the guy was expendable and drew interest from other teams.
3) The bullpen goes beyond the 6 guys on the MLB roster. Likewise, the outfield goes beyond the starting three. After this trade, one’s depth was increased more than another’s was decreased.
4) Farquhar was the 14th best prospect in the Jays’ system with closer upside and Magnussen was the 23rd (or something like that) at the start of the 2010 season. Farquhar has dropped a little since, but still has high upside, and Magnussen is near-MLB ready and may break camp with the team. Those are from reports from scouts at the time of the deal. I don’t understand why your initial reaction to that information would have been, “who are these losers? Wow, they suck!”
5) Again, if Crisp gets injured, DeJesus plays in CF, Sweeney in RF and Jackson in LF. All three of those guys are better ball players than Davis. Then another guy has to go down for Davis to crack the lineup regularly, and he has to hurry up and do it before Crisp gets back. Then Chris Carter has to never get called up. You’re essentially betting against other, better players in the hopes that a platoon OF gets more PAs. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
6) Fair enough but that’s not we’re talking about. And again I have to touch on Willingham. After the Davis trade, our bullpen depth is at an all time high. You’re dealing from a position of strength. I would go so far as to say that the Davis trade paved the way to the Willingham trade, and that those trades are effectively inseparable.
If I may be candid: I truly believe that if you got Beane alone in a hotel room and got him all liquored up, he’d walk you through how the Davis trade directly led to the Willingham trade.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 18, 2010 10:10 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I do not believe for a second Jackson is better than Rajai.
Potential to be maybe, but at this point in their respective careers, Rajai is much more productive and useful than CoJax
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
Yet Jackson would have been ahead of him on the depth chart coming out of spring.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 18, 2010 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
How do you know that?
And being ahead on the depth chart does not mean he’s better.
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
Jackson has serious upside.
We all know this. He also had mung toe, knee rabies and moon fever or whatever. We all know that, too. Anyway, you give that guy a whole shitcrap of PAs to see if he can get it back before you hand the job back to the platooning wind-sprinter who overruns flares.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 18, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
you give that kind of a guy a ton of PAs on a team like the royals or astros who arent contending
Meanwhile, the A’s are likely going to be in a playoff race and can’t afford to give that kind of guy any meaningful playing time if he’s not producing, just hoping he’s going to reach his upside. As a backup, Davis is probably more useful, but he also likely had more trade value.
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
Which is why Willingham is here now.
HAMMER FTW!
by sleepingcobra on Dec 18, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Jackson does not have serious upside.
The guy has one above league average year in about 6 years in the big leagues. And that year was 3 years and a multitude of injuries ago.
Whatever chance he has of reaching that upside is also hampered by the fact that he’s the fifth outfielder on this team. Imagine that, our frugal little team is paying a fifth outfielder 3 million dollars. Unbelievable.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Jackson makes some sense pre-Willingham
He can hit lefty pitching and back-up at the outfield corners and 1B.
Conor Jackson wasn’t the 5th OF a week ago. I agree he doesn’t appear to have a place on the roster anymore. His situation will have to be rectified down the road.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think you're brushing Jackson aside too easily
but I agree that it doesn’t make sense to keep him on as a 5th OF for $3 million.
We can’t really make an accurate assessment of his baseball abilities. The only thing we can say about him is that he has serious health issues. He has a good pedigree and had success at a young age in the majors before The Attack of the Valley Feve’s limited him to 150ish ABs over the past 3 years. That’s far too small a sample size to say that he sucks. Your analysis isn’t really fair in that respect.
That being said, the situation we have him in doesn’t make sense. Trade him if possible, otherwise, the best thing to do would be to cut him.
by UrgentMirth on Dec 18, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Course we can.
The guy’s played 6 years in the big leagues, totaling ~2000 at bats. He’s produced around 4 total WAR in those six years. That’s really bad.
The fact that he missed huge portions of the last three years with Valley Fever (and hamstring strains, and a shoulder injury, and a hernia…) is a huge indictment against him. It shouldn’t be treated as a a mulligan. And the fact remains that he’s had one above league average year in the first four years he was healthy. He wasn’t that good at baseball then, and with the recent spate of injuries that probably sapped whatever baseball ability he had, it’s certainly reasonable conclude that he’s pretty bad at baseball now.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
But, but, but. Valley Fever!
Dang. You put a real crimp in my unvarnished off-season optimism.
Your poem here.
Career WAR isn't that useful in this case
Since his recent injured years have reduced it significantly. And counting his cup of coffee in 2005 against him isn’t really fair either. He’s a former first round pick who put up wOBAs of .352, .363, and .364 in his first full seasons at the ages of 24-26. Those are all slightly above average. He also OPSed over .800 each of those years. He’s not a great defender, but he showed talent with the bat.
I’m not arguing that his ability to stay healthy isn’t completely nightmarish. The consumption had ruined his past two years. However, I don’t think we can say
He wasn’t that good at baseball then, and with the recent spate of injuries that probably sapped whatever baseball ability he had, it’s certainly reasonable conclude that he’s pretty bad at baseball now.
He wasn’t a star back then, but he was a fine player that was improving into his prime, and we really have no data as to whether or not the injuries have sapped his baseball abilities or not. It’s fair to claim that you don’t want a playoff contending team to find out, but not that he definitely sucks at baseball.
by UrgentMirth on Dec 18, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
I don't know --
he’s kind of like Nick Johnson only not as good when he does play.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You just described someone who's definitely bad at baseball.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 6:24 PM PST up reply actions
Yes. I'm not a Conor fan.
{But Go Bears!}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's silly.
His upside is of a .360 wOBA COF, which we had none of before the addition of Willingham (and possibly DeJesus). The only reason WAR didn’t like him was because he was terrible at 1B…but he’s been league average at LF, and between Barton and Rosales, he’ll never touch 1B in Oakland. His upside is a comfortable 3 WAR LFer.
Between sliders and changeups,
Bobby Crosby rarely touched 1B in Oakland.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I hear a snare drum....
Henny, FTW!
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Went over this before...
There is not enough defensive data to be able to reasonably conclude that he was league average in left. Even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was, it’s likely he’s a lot worse now with all the injuries.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
And there's no data saying he's not league average
It’s all scouting and injury information and we have none of that either. Certainly his upside is what dan says above.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Sure.
But Dan was the one making the claim that he has been league average defensively in LF based on sketchy to no information. I have yet to make the claim that he definitely isn’t.
And I would hardly argue that a guy, currently the fifth starter on this team, with the slimmest of chances to get to 3 WAR constitutes “serious” upside anyways… but that has more to do with the vagueness and perversion of the usage of the word “upside” without regards to “likelihood of getting there”. I think everyone would be better off if we stopped using that word, period.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
er...currently the fifth outfielder*
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 18, 2010 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
To add on, "upside" is such a nebulous term
Nick Johnson’s upside is huge and since it’s possible he’ll be healthy for 150 games next season I suppose his “upside” is to hit around .300/.420/.460 in 2011.
But to give short shift to his complete and utter inability, season after season, to stay anywhere close to healthy is kind of missing the point of what it means to be Nick Johnson. Same for Duchscherer.
At some point, health — not to mention the lack of muscle memory of batting only a couple hundred times every year for three years — is just a fundamental part of the profile.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Agreed.
And let’s say it’s all a nebulous wash. Let’s even say Rajai Davis was somehow objectively better overall than Connor Jackson. If we put on our Macro Hats, we see that the difference is actually nominal, and the talent levels/production output we’re squabbling over are laughable.
This whole “you’re gonna be sorry when Crisp gets injured” tauntingly father-knows-best crap is baseless. You’re romanticizing Davis because he had a lot of stolen bases. He was otherwise useless, especially so with Willingham here now.
The Davis trade was not a Blunder.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
No, I'm "romanticizing" Davis because
he’s a better (more useful) player than you give him credit for.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Maybe so.
And maybe that’s why he netted two decent-to-awesome relievers and Connor Jackson didn’t.
And maybe filling out the back end of the bullpen with a couple prospects led directly to the Willingham trade – which basically makes Rajai Davis irrelevant.
I think there’s an obvious pattern there and I think you’re pulling the Davis trade out of context. Out of context it looks worse. In context, I think it’s a brilliant, shiny piece of a Billy Beane brain puzzle.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
First of all, Willingham does not make Davis irrelevant,
he makes Conor Jackson irrelevant (not that Conor needs a whole lot of help). Davis’ ability to play a solid CF is especially important to a team starting Coco Crisp.
Second of all, if I believed the A’s had gotten to “decent to awesome” relievers, I’d be fine with the trade. I don’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
DeJesus makes Davis irrelevant.
I just left a piece of the chain out. In terms of backing up CF, Willingham makes the hole DeJesus leaves when he slides over to center irrelevant, because Sweeney and Jackson will be there competing for 4th OF, both of whom are better OFers than Davis, Sweeney easily, and Jackson arguably. Which bring up yet another point: with the addition of Willingham, really we’re talking about the loss of a 5th outfielder in Davis. And not even that – we’re really talking about the loss of someone in competition for the 5th OF spot with Connor Jackson. I mean, come on Nico… “blunder?”
Second: I worded that wrong. “Decent to awesome” relief prospects is what I meant to say, which is what they are, more or less. I realize they’re closer to the “decent” end of the spectrum, but I want to emphasize their upside in two ways: 1) they actually have good upside, and 2) the A’s have that recent, peskily consistent, outstanding success with developing bullpen arms.
Third: you’re at this point wholly avoiding the idea that the Davis trade directly leads to the Willingham trade. You’re ignoring a potentially very important concept in all this: it’s likely that without actually removing a platoon outfielder (Davis) for decent prospects to fill the back end of rotation going forward, the Willingham deal becomes less feasible in a macro sense, because H-Rod becomes less expendable.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
H-Rod was always expendable
“5th best relievers” are not hard to find or replace.
And no, I don’t think the A’s knew they could swing the Willingham trade back when they acquired DeJesus (and Werth hadn’t even signed).
You’d rather have DeJesus as backup CFer, and have Conor in the mix. I’d rather have Davis as backup CFer (and pinch runner, and defensive replacement) and no Conor.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And an extra million bucks or so
Let’s not forget that part.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
5th best relievers
Are hard for lots of teams to find (who can’t find 4th or 3rd best relievers, either). To boot, why not just say that those two combined equal the loss of Demel for nothing, because the A’s essentially paid nothing for Davis.
And like I said before (and I know you already know well), depth goes beyond the 25 man roster. Magnussen and Farquhar could both be on the 2011 A’s at some point. That in itself makes H-Rod more expendable.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
My point is that if the A's had acquired
neither of these two relief prospects, and had the chance to deal H-Rod (with Brown) for Willingham, they’d should and would do it.
Out of the gate, the A’s already have Bailey, Wuertz, Devine, Ziggy, Breslow, and Blevins. Harden will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod. The best AAA reliever in May will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod. A guy they scour the waiver wire to add (as they did Breslow) will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod. He’s a non-factor because he’s never proven he can hit the broad side of a barn. His value was as a trade chip.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With all due respect.
had the chance to deal H-Rod (with Brown) for Willingham, they’d should and would do it.
They had that chance and should and did do it. My point here is that dealing Davis for more arms was essentially a harbinger/planned move in which a highly touted-ish bullpen arm would be traded later in the offseason - because having more bullpen arms before the Willingham deal made it more enticing/possible/palatable. You’re just too god damned reasonable to not agree with me about that.
You know what? Just look at our terms. I’ll put your terms in italics and mine in parentheses. Watch:
The Davis trade lost us a a totally capable CF (platoon OF) and sort-of significantly weakened (only slightly weakened) the OF, while the return for him barely strengthened (strengthened) the bullpen.
We’re really not that far apart. If you’d just meet me in the middle I think you’d like the trade.
Your
second paragraphI just can’t get on board with, and I think you know why.
“Harden will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod.”
Super arguable.
“The best AAA reliever in May will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod”
Totally arguable.
“A guy they scour the waiver wire to add (as they did Breslow) will probably be better in 2011 than H-Rod.”
Immensely arguable
“He’s a non-factor because he’s never proven he can hit the broad side of a barn.”
Wild unsubstantiated hyberbolic claim.
“His value was as a trade chip.”
His value was as a good reliever.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
No, he sucks.
Maybe he’ll figure it out, but I doubt it. My point is/was that acquiring those two relief prospects didn’t enable the A’s to deal H-Rod. Without those two guys, you deal him anyway. He’s replacement crap at this point, with a small chance of becoming more.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You point is/was that for two posts.
Before that it was that the relievers kinda blow, or that Davis rules, or that we’re gonna be sorry when Crisp gets injured.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 8:35 PM PST up reply actions
Or that DeJesus can't play center
(Or that you are good at ignoring that he can), or that Connor Jackson sucks. Or that Davis is better than Connor Jackson. Or that Davis was somehow a quality addition to the team.
All of those points are highly arguable at best, and, in my opinion, wrong if you average everything out.
by sleepingcobra on Dec 19, 2010 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
I thought there was no such thing as a relief prospect.
Or was that pitching prospect? I forget.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
There's certainly no such thing as a middle relief prospect
It’s not a coincidence that those sorts of guys are constantly the ones getting exposed to Rule 5. They’re completely fungible.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
ummm...
are you suggesting we get Beane in a hotel room and get him all liquored up? if that’s what you’re suggesting, and it sounds like that’s what you’re suggesting, count me in.
by DowntownChico on Dec 18, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Can we just wait until he's got all his offseason work done, OK?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 18, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
Do I get a choice of who to have in a liquor-soaked hotel room?
BB is not in my top 5.
Your poem here.
ooooo, so now we get choices?
1. al davis (so i can liquor him up and pull the plug)
2. meghan fox (mmmmmmmmm…)
3. cheech and chong (yes, this counts as one.)
4. warren buffett (if he can’t make me money, i could just steal his wallet)
5. batman (fuck yea, i chose batman)
honorable mention: mitch hedberg, chris farley, jesus
by DowntownChico on Dec 18, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
I'm split on both the Cust and Rajai decisions.
I’m not a fan of Cust, but he puts up solid stat lines, and probably would have cost about the same amount that Matsui did, but more than what he signed with the M’s for. It was a huge gamble that they could sign someone of close to the same production, but it worked out for them by signing Matsui to an agreeable deal.
With Rajai, I’m kinda sad to see him go, for both his energy as well as his stolen bases. The reason why i think the trade is good is that it’s apparent he performs better as an everyday player, and while he might have to fill in for an injured player at some point, theres no guarantee he’s going to have start on a daily basis. I’m not sure how productive he would have been as our 4th OF.
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
I just looked at Beltre's career numbers.
and his 2004 year with the Dodgers stands out like a sore thumb. .334 avg, 48 hrs, 121 rbis. so the dude was on roids, right? is it safe to assume he was shootin up every day of ’04, and his numbers are much closer to last years figures, if not a lil worse?
No proof he took roids, but that year is definitely something to expect from him and everybody knows that
I think pretty much the majority of us would be happy with production similar to his 2006 season (25 hr’s and 89 rbis) but with a better average.
by duballers23 on Dec 18, 2010 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
I think it's safe to assume
he was part of a Columbian drug cartel smuggling cocaine to hookers with terrorist leanings.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
There are two things I can manage about once per day.
Being funny, and, um, you know. Sometimes they turn out to be the same thing.
Your poem here.
That's why his WAR is so high.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Makes about as much sense as any other of the myriad of assumptions made around here
I love green because money be green.
Beltre
We have to got 5 for $80 if we do want him, the Angels won’t want to offer 5 for 85, my thought, Then the Angels would be screwed at 3B. If they do offer 5 for 85 then they wasted an extra million per year. I think he is worth 5 for 80.
"Holy Toledo"-Bill King
by A's fan since birth on Dec 18, 2010 1:42 PM PST reply actions
I honestly think this should be the biggest gimme moment of the offseason
beltre’s essentially could be ours if we want him, regardless of anything else. he’s not ok with the angels offer, yet. so why not go 5/80. and to the point that he owns a home in l.a., its not like the bay area is that far away from Los Angeles logistically. an hour plane flight or so shouldnt deter him from signing for more money.
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
Blunders?
Signing Beltre would be a major blunder. Beltre’s been OK and he had a big season last year in Fenway, but he is a more an example of East Coast hype than top flight talent. Its amazing how easily the bozo brigade can be bought by hype. Just ask Boras. Mortgaging the farm for a guy who is likely to go into retirement mode starting 2011 is just plain stupid. ’ Course when its not your money – Hey big spender, who cares? Fergeddit. Let some other schmuck team poss into the wind. Not the A’s – they’ll rise or fall on the Four Arms, not brother Beltre. ’
sigh
Beltre had a good year last year. ONe shouldn’t use splits to show a players worth, but he was better on the road last year.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
One also shouldn't use Werth to show a player's splits.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or if the location is inconvenient, perhaps Barton a bus.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Jai Miller is back again again again!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Speed/power combo with a lotta strickouts!
Wait, where have I heard that before…
I love green because money be green.
Holy cow...
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Whoa
Add this to the list “Stuff I hella hella didn’t think would happen this offseason”
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
by MissOakland on Dec 18, 2010 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
so much for wanting young pitching in return for greinke
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
That's what I was thinking
quite a few players for one pitcher
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
by MissOakland on Dec 18, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
It's not Haren-esque
but Escobar was arguably their #1 prospect, and Cain rocketed through AA, AAA, and then was pretty damn good in a short time in the bigs this year.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
You know the more I look at Escobar the less I like him
He has a great glove but his walk rate is terrible and he has no power to speak of. To survive in MLB he’ll need to hit .300. Cain is a bit better, he looks to slugs .400ish. 2009 was a terrible year for him, but 2010 was solid. Jeffries is a nice backend bullpen piece. Odorizzi is the best part of the deal for the Royals.
Even with my dislike of Escobar, I gotta say the trade looks solid for the Royals.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
The Brewers ate Betancourt's salary, too
It’s not a great return, but it’s not terrible, either.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
and now they need a starting SS and CF, don't they?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
It's the sheer volume that makes it so good for me
Even though none of the prospects are without questions, getting 4 good to very good prospects for anybody makes it a nice haul.
At the time, many thought the Haren deal was quantity over quality too….
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
And then Prince Fielder ate Betancourt.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 19, 2010 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
For some reason
I like that Yuniesky Betancourt is part of that (rumored) deal.
by whiteshoes40 on Dec 18, 2010 11:13 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty much everything (outside of the A's control) that could go right for the A's went right.
Seriously, the heavens are actually shining on this previously godforsaken team right now. Now just go add Beltre and at the very least, the A’s are in a dead heat with the Rangers.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 5:48 AM PST up reply actions
So, is there a NL mystery team that might be willing to go after Beltre?
Because, the A’s have already increased their payroll by 20% if I read grover’s numbers right, and if they do as we want and sign Beltre, they will have upped payroll by approximately 50%, and well, they might never have intended to do that at all.
So, where would we stand if Beltre doesn’t end up in the AL West, or even the AL, for that matter?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Dec 19, 2010 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
I think pretty good.
3-way dogfight in the making, the A’s with the most payroll flexibility going into the season; works for me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
?
The Rangers and Angels have far more payroll flexibility than the A’s. That money to Lee and to Crawford are still there.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
And they have far better prospects/far more depth to be able to deal prospects for that significant upgrade than the A's.
It would be a huge mistake to think that the A’s should be content to finish upgrading now.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
I don't get the impression the money for Crawford was necessarily ever there
The offer they made was so far under Boston’s that it’s hard to imagine the Angels were worried Crawford would actually take it.
You’re probably right about Texas, though — I don’t know much about their payroll but after losing Lee I’d guess they’re ready to spend as need be to satisfy Nolan Ryan’s whims.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The Angels are throwing 5/70 at Beltre, meaning they at least have around 14 million to spend this year.
Even half of that (7 million) is enough for a significant, half season upgrade.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
I'm of the mind that the variance of "projected wins" to "actual wins"
is huge. Which team’s player will break his leg celebrating a walk-off grand slam? Which team will have a pitcher inexplicably be twice as good/bad as he “should” be?
I think the 3 teams, as is, are all in the mix — sure I’d like to see the A’s improve, and right now I see Texas still as the favorite, but if Beltre goes to the NL I think the A’s start the season with reasonable hopes. It’s if he goes to LAA or TEX that I’ll be bummed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The variance is around 5 games.
Since the A’s are roughly 4-5 games behind the Rangers at the moment, they are around the fringes of contention. A three team race in a four team division does not seem like a desirable situation to be in.
The A’s have been building these sorts of ’tweener teams for a while now, hoping for good luck and chance (everyone staying healthy, everyone producing) to contend. The results have been abysmal. Why continue to commit these same mistakes? Why ignore the available and attainable upgrade? Why go “halfway in” when the stated goal is to go “all in”?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 19, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, I've already said the A's should offer Beltre 5/75.
I’m ok with it, though, if they won’t go higher (and ok with it if they will). I’m also of the subjective opinion that Oakland is not Beltre’s first choice all things being equal or close to equal, and so at this point I’m hoping he lands in the NL rather than end up with LAA or TEX.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Save our money
I don’t want an Eric Chavez deal all over again. He wasn’t even that productive in his years at Safeco.
This post is full of fail and not reading comments in other threads
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 20, 2010 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
Hence the user name.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Heh, nice.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2010 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
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