Josh Willingham Traded to Oakland: Thread Number Two

Then again it’s Boras. And he said that after Boston lost a need for a third baseman.

The A’s would essentially be a team that’s not good on the major league level, no prospects in the minors, and little financial leeway to fix the suckiness on the major league level.

So maybe late 90s, early 2000s D-Rays or the recent Astros teams.

This is amusing to me because I’m one of the biggest “all in” proponents on this site. I’m the one arguing that the A’s have to sign Beltre at all costs, even if it means overpaying for him to the tune of a 5/80 deal.

The difference between Beltre and Wright is not as big as people think. At most, I think it’s a 2 win difference between them for next year, perhaps less because Beltre’s defense is extremely valuable to a team like the A’s.The difference is that Beltre will only cost money while Wright will cost money and the rest of the A’s farm system, thereby significantly reducing the A’s ability to compete in subsequent years. The additional production of Wright does not increase the A’s chances of making the playoffs enough to justify sacrificing the rest of the window of contention…especially with Beltre still on the table, who’s a good enough option that acquiring him would make the A’s legit contenders regardless.

But to the situation the A’s are in, they are more valuable. Unless of course, you want to resign Willingham, Crisp, DeJesus, and Ellis. But that’s three bloated, undesirable contracts that you have no choice but to sign (if you want to compete in years 2,3 of Wright’s contract) and then you’re definitely running into questions of whether or not you can retain both Cahill or Gio.

There’s too much risk in trading that package for Wright when you could just sign Beltre instead and retain some semblance of hope that a corner outfield spot and second base can be replaced by a cheap, internal option instead of a replacement level player or a league average player you expensively paid for on the free agent market or extensions to Crisp, Willingham, and Ellis that, I’ve already spelled out, you probably don’t want to pay.

A misplaced sense of pride? An inferiority complex borne out of years of not being able to get top free agents? Simple ingroup bias? (Btw, I’m not really referring to you, alox. I’ve see these comments from many A’s fans on this site).

The A’s are far more desperate for Beltre’s services than he will ever be for the A’s. Beltre signing with the Angels makes the marginal improvements the A’s have done this offseason, dare I say, moot.

  he would leak the offers but all we hear is there are a few teams after him. That means someone called but no offer was even made.

Extending the starters isn’t a bad idea. (Please don’t turn this into a Cahill argument)

They all seem like year-to-year guys to me. The A’s already extended the guy I wanted to see extended (Anderson).

Being able to go year-to-year with pitchers (and cut them loose if they’re injured or ineffectual) is a serious advantage. It shouldn’t be lightly thrown aside.

Just because I don’t want to extend them now doesn’t mean I want to trade them. Extending them does not mean you can’t sign Beltre. I’m not sure why people keep thinking these things are mutually exclusive. From the numbers bandied about in the last thread, it seems like adding Beltre and extending those players still results in a manageable budget (60-75 million, considering other arbitration eligible players that the A’s might like to keep).

But I think we have it now.

Might not pan out and we won’t have much trouble replacing him. Though I would like Demel Back…

So much better than Rodriguez.

If you insist on using it, use xFIP.

It was a very smart trade for the Nationals. Brown gives them a shot at a good outfielder, Rodriguez a good bullpen pitcher. All it cost them was a guy who was not going to get them anywhere remotely near the playoffs anyway.

LaRoche is just filler. I’m not sure how he relates to anything.

I hope you enjoy the Hammer – I had fun watching him hit a walkoff bomb against the O’s in interleague last season, shutting up a bunch of obnoxious O’s fans. Good times. I wish him well.

As I see it, the Nats are looking to get younger, better defensively, faster and more athletic. Willingham didn’t fit that matrix, although he is a plus bat and has become solid defensively – better than I thought he would. But he’s not a plus defender, and is also 31, has a balky knee and has not yet played a full season (his MO is that he tails off after the all star break) at a high level. That said, he may work better in the AL, where he can be given occasional days off while still getting to DH, especially against lefties where Matsui might sit. But unless the Nats sign Pena (IMHO a real possibility) they will miss the Hammer’s bat big time in 2011. I do expect that LF will be manned by a platoon of Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse.

Yes, if the Nats were going to contend in 2011, they would have kept him. Dunn too, for that matter. But Strasburg getting hurt made that difficult, and with the Phillies getting Cliff Lee – well, I’m not betting on the Nats winning the division in 2011. Finishing 4th and near .500 would be another step up and heading into 2012 and especially 2013. But after 2011 Hammer is a free agent, and is gone or (if he’s good in 2011) must be signed to a multiyear extension. Problem: the Nats now have Jayson Werth in one corner OF position, and Bryce Harper on the way. What the Nats don’t have is a CF (well, other than Nyjer Morgan … no wait, I stand by my original assessment). The Nats have solid prospects coming up in the middle infield and at catcher, with some potential pitching help a bit farther off. But their best CF prospect is Eury Perez, and he’s going to be at AA for the first time this year – and has no power. Justin Maxwell was going to be that guy, but he has struggled to hit big league pitching and just underwent Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until April.

So the Nats move Willingham for a prospect who might become a CF, not to play now but as insurance in case Morgan stays a head case, Bernadina plateaus and Maxwell stays Maxwell. They also get a power pitcher who has shown signs recently of solving his control problem. The Nats have enough rubber armed nibbling control types, so a potential power arm is something they are looking to add (they also picked up a highly regarded one in the Rule 5 draft). Did they get any guarantees? No – but I’m not surprised that they didn’t get an offer that they liked better for Hammer because of his knee, injury history, defense and age. So they bit the bullet and made the move when it’s on the table.

PS: The trade tells me the Nats aren’t done building their roster. Don’t be surprised if they sign Lee to play 1b and package their very effective and deep bullpen into part of a trade for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza.