Glass Half Full And Rising?

I mean if the Angels offered him 4/60 he might take it over an A’s 5-year offer, but I don’t know that they’re planning to. No other team has actually stepped up and said, “We want you; here’s an offer.” Oakland’s offer is starting to look good, and a little bump in it is starting to look like, “What are you waiting for?”

If he doesn’t get the cash from the A’s he’ll get it somewhere else, and sooner rather than later. If there’s a chance to lock him up there is no point in pissing about.

I’d love to see his batshit response.

OPS+ just scales OPS to average. OPS has a lot of flaws, primarily that OBP >> OPS.

After I calmed down about that, the landlord then told me about how many people had died of Valley Fever over the previous two years in Kern County. And I was like, “What hell have I landed in!” Don’t get me wrong, I liked Bakersfield and defend it against all its detractors (who say, “my car broke down in Bakersfield once”), and I’m all for Jackson’s full recovery for a rotten fungus and a 3+ WAR year!

although I’d love to see an extension for both. Crisp seemed to love it here last yeah, so hopefully he doesn’t go bolting for greener pastures like every other damn free agent.

CF free agent options will continue to be weak and we don’t have great internal options. I expect every effort to be made to retain those guys.

Offer them both arbitration after this year. Neither one will accept arby, because both will be worthy of multi-year deals as the only potential CFs on the market next offseason. Collect the four draft picks they’ll garner, which is going to be about ~$6M in bonuses to prospects. Gotta budget for that, of course.

The market for DH has (correctly) evolved to the point where you can sign a good hitter on a one-year deal annually for about $3-5M. So, next offseason, you bring back Matsui on a one-year deal, or his equivalent in terms of price/performance.

Carter takes over full-time in left. Taylor and Corey Brown both make the big club and compete for the CF job. Neither of those guys will have anything to prove in AAA by ‘11 – it’ll be time to sink or swim. Sweeney is the full-time RF or sharing with Taylor.

By my plan, the rest of the team is so cheap going forward, you can give Beltre the $17M a year he wants ($85M) and seal the deal. And remember, there is not one elite free agent that you want the A’s to pursue over the next two offseasons. Not one.

This is more of a topic for a fanpost, but basically I hate the entire idea of signing a player – any player – to an extension once he’s at free agency, or on the brink of it. It completely flies in the face of my strongest principle for running a small-market club, which would be, “Extract maximum value from every player in your system.” Here’s what I mean by that, through examples:

1. A great pitcher just finished two outstanding seasons, and is about to become expensive. He will never be more valuable than he is now, because he’s healthy, cheap, and under control for 3-4 more seasons. Trade him now if a great offer exists. Haren, Mulder, and one day Brett Anderson.

2. A near-free agent is about to finish a healthy, productive season and will be an asset on the FA market. You could either a.) Let him walk, and collect two high picks, or b.) sign him to a market-value extension, at which point he will have no surplus value. So you should let him walk and collect the picks.

3. An elite free agent is on the market. Your team finished in the bottom 15, and you can sign this free agent at basically zero talent cost to your team (the No. ~70 overall pick). You sign him, and invest as much as ~25-33% of your payroll in him.

These are my guiding principles for how I would run a small-market franchise. I am consistent with them. They are admittedly somewhat risky. I think low-budget teams have to take risks, and I like my risks better than the ones other teams take.

before he breaks down completely, for a Mark Mulder haul.

But I’m assuming if we have any desire to keep the core, paying a 36 year old $16M vs. something like $10M could give us a little more flexibility…

If we’re working on a small window, putting that possibility off for a year is worth quite a bit

Just refused to pay him.

Anyways I am racking my brain thinking of other teams that need a 3B. The Dbacks don’t have $.

Toronto?

then sure, it makes no sense to up the bid.

But Beltre is a big enough upgrade that if the A’s know someone else (say, Anaheim) is making a push for Beltre and have offered close to what the A’s did then Oakland should drop the 5/80 bombshell. Skip the incremental attack and jump straight to cutting off the other team’s head and crapping down their throat.

but I’ve been swayed. The reason you have to raise the offer is because he won’t take the offer we’ve already made. Boras would likely have Beltre take another one-year offer rather than take one below what he thinks he’s worth. Think of it like the reserve in an eBay auction. You bid $5 on an item. It says “you are the high bidder, but the reserve has not been met.” You then have to decide…do you want to wait until the auction ends and see if your bid is somehow still the high bid and HOPE the seller decides to take it anyway even though it’s below their reserve? Do you sit and wait and watch someone else bid up to the reserve and get the item? Or do you raise your bid hoping to hit the reserve? If you get to the max you’re willing to pay and the reserve has still not been met it’s time to move on, but the A’s have made one offer, and the first offer should never be the highest one. If Beane wants Adrian Beltre, it’s going to cost him more than 5/$64 million.

is bad. Beltre can be expected to be better than Zito.