Arcman's last fearless prediction for 2010

by Arcman on Nov 6, 2010 3:01 PM PDT

Less than 2 weeks away is the GM meetings and Beane is looking to trade. So expect a trade to take place because Beane usualy moves quick and before the end of the year on trades. Now I do not have any inside information but just by putting comments together by trade rumors I know that the A's are willing to trade starting pitching for a big bat. So no need to post a link because it is all guessing by me.

1. Beane trades Anderson and Kouz to the Mets for David wright. Why? The Mets need pitching and Anderson is a #1 starter that could be the center piece of their rotation. Kouz is to give the mets a starting thirdbaseman. I know right now some are saying no way the A's should trade Anderson but to get a David wright you must give up a quality player. Sandy Alderson the new mets GM has mentioned that wright could be up for trade. the A's would have the #4 hitter they need and a solid thirdbaseman.

2. Win the signing rights to Iwakumra. At least it would keep the M's or Rangers from getting a starter. He would replace whoever the A's trade this off season. I don;'t think he would be a #1 starter but could be a good #3 starter especially in Oakland and bring the Asian fans to the A's games.

3. If all else fails sign a couple of free agents. Beltre is atop of Beane's list so if 1 fails then back up is Beltre if his price is right. Ordonez is the other free agent Beane will look at. Werth and Crawford will most likely out of the A's price range. Werth is a high risk since he may not hit in a pitchers park. Crawford most likely ends in Boston where he is over paid.

We all hope a couple big bats come the A's way that are good hitters. No Derek Lees that are at the end of their productive years. Look for these names to be shopped around Josh Donaldson, Vin Mazzaro, and Dallas Braden.

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Comments

First! My lifelong dream has always been to emulate those douchebags on the mainstream sites

I don’t think the A’s need to trade anything. Let Carter AND Taylor start next year and just see how it turns out. With the pitching there ANY bat we trot out there will be an upgrade over this year.

by petitceebee on Nov 6, 2010 3:21 PM PDT reply actions

agree with Carter

With all the starting pitching the A’s have there will be a trade of someone. Don’t forget Outman and Ross will be back next year to challenge.

by Arcman on Nov 6, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Can we trade tthem all

and get Nick Swisher back?

by petitceebee on Nov 6, 2010 3:50 PM PDT reply actions

#1 is horrible

While I would want Wright, giving up Anderson is way overpaying. We could get a kings ransom for Anderson right now, with out having to take on salary to do it, and give away Kouzmanoff. Cheap, ace pitchers who are under control for 4-5 years are gold.

"I wanted to see how much my computer programming skills had improved since the last time I was arrested." - octopus virus

by Zonis on Nov 6, 2010 4:48 PM PDT reply actions

That's not true

Anderson already has a long “owie” list that includes elbow trouble which shut him down not once but twice just last year. And David Wright IS a king’s ransom. Not such a lopsided premise.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 6, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think the Mets would do the deal....

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Nov 6, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't either

by OaklandSi on Nov 6, 2010 8:37 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

I don't think the Anderson-Wright trade is unfair one way or the other...

According to Fangraphs, Wright’s WAR was 4.1, worth $16.2 million. Kouz’s WAR was 2.9, worth $11.6. Anderson’s WAR was _______ so they’re not that far off.

So here’s what it comes down to: would you rather have a cost-controlled pitcher with an injury history, but with the ability to be a perennial Cy Young candidate, or have a 3B nearing the end of his cost-controlled years but who has 8.6 WAR potential (that’s what it was 2007)?

Projecting forward, if Anderson’s WAR would be 5 and Kouz’s WAR would be 3 next year with the Mets, and Wright’s WAR with the A’s would be 4.5… then whoever would replace Anderson in the A’s rotation would need a 3.5 WAR to make that even.

That’s definitely doable… but I think I’d rather keep Anderson and Kouz.

by Brett Narloch on Nov 6, 2010 5:28 PM PDT reply actions

Filling in the blank...

Anderson’s WAR last year was 2.6 – of course he missed a bunch of starts.

by Brett Narloch on Nov 6, 2010 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions

tough trade

You just can’t get a Wright for anything else but a allstar type player. Alderson did mention Wright was tradeable so that is why I thought of this trade.

by Arcman on Nov 6, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Think of it this way

IF the A’s land Iwakuma, and they traded Anderson/Kouz for Wright, they would be left with a rotation of Iwakuma, Geo, Cahill, Braden, Mazzaro, with a lineup that suddenly had a legitimate cleanup hitter in it. That’s swapping Anderson out for Iwakuma and swapping out Kouzmanoff for Wright.

Considering that the A’s can expect to be without Anderson for some time anyway — at least based on his history so far — this looks like a real upgrade from having Anderson and Kouz but not having Wright.

Wright’s contract, btw, is for $14M, $15, $16M (club option) in 2011-13. So you’re basically looking at $15M/year for 3 years.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 6, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Right... it all depends on how many starts you think Anderson will get...

and if you think Wright will be an 8.6 WAR player or a 4 WAR player.

by Brett Narloch on Nov 6, 2010 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I suspect Anderson will get "25 or fewer" starts,

and David Wright is an elite player — something the A’s sorely lack amongst their position players. I think it’s a trade that makes the A’s better, assuming they have a good SP ready to replace Anderson.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 6, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

TRAVIS BANWART FTW!!!

by TBRMKane on Nov 6, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Anderson might have reached 7 WAR last year had he been healthy.

I know its my own injury adjustments, but he was still a top 30 SP last year regardless of his starts, so i think its valid. In fact, he had the highest WAR for the lowest IP. Wright for BA+Kouz is actually not bad a deal if it were a team trying to save money…sadly the Mets arent.

by PL78 on Nov 6, 2010 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoa, there.

Seven? Extrapolate his 2.6 WAR over 200 IP and you’ll get 4.6. Still a lot, of course, but seven is kind of ridiculous.

by danmerqury on Nov 6, 2010 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Dude, have you not heard of rounding up?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 6, 2010 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Well he obviously would have thrown 3 no hitters had he been healthy.

DUH.

by PL78 on Nov 7, 2010 11:10 AM PST up reply actions

8.6 WAR in 2007

7.6 in 2008, 7.6 in 2009 and 2010 combined. Also, his defense according to UZR is on a two-year trend at around -10 each year. In fact, his UZR numbers for his career are all over the place. 2007 and 2008 look like outlier years for Wright rather than expectations. I think the 4.5 you projected is much more reasonable…

by scatterbrian on Nov 8, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions

My last prediction for 2010

I predict sometime before morning time will fall back an hour.

But seriously, folks....

by Bed on Nov 6, 2010 10:15 PM PDT reply actions

unless you have an iphone

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Nov 6, 2010 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions

or Doctor Who owes you a favor...

"Burt Reynolds witnessed the conception of his own dad, and frankly, that's what's wrong with him."- TPDMTD!

by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 7, 2010 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Considering All the Options You Stated

Actually, if Oakland sold Anderson to the Mets for Wright, that would open up a spot in the rotation. The means Iwakamru could come in and fill the hole.
Still, I’m reluctant to give up Anderson.

by Oakland All-Star on Nov 7, 2010 9:23 AM PST reply actions

it is

Hard to give up Anderson but he would be the most likely player to get Wright. CaHill would be untradeable, Braden most likely not enough, and Gio would be still to young for the Mets. Anderson injury problems would be why I most likely trade him. Think of Mark Mulder.

by Arcman on Nov 7, 2010 9:39 AM PST up reply actions

Gio is older than Anderson though.

I’d give up Anderson+Kouz for David Wright. I’m not the Mets take that though, but who knows, now Alderson is in charge maybe he’s a huge A’s fan and will ok any trade with us lol

by PL78 on Nov 7, 2010 11:12 AM PST up reply actions