The next post I'm making here in the name of finding some great off-season targets in addition to adding to my pointless list-making itches that I have to scratch, is the old "who was lucky, who was unlucky?" starting pitcher one.

FIP is a pretty genius metric because it tries to take away defense and leaves you with who was actually good, instead of who was on a good defensive team. When analyzing players, its always more important to look at the individual rather than the individual+his teammates impact on his numbers, yet that rarely happens. Now it does. The lists are after the leap.

I used all pitchers who threw over 100 innings, and only went to the outliers on FIP up to a 4.50 FIP, as 4.50 is a pretty reasonable FIP for a 5th starter. I used a 50 point differential between the numbers. A lot of these players will command a ton of prospects or a ton of money in return, but there are some real diamonds in the rough out there, and if you play fantasyball, those are the kinds of players to target in late rounds. I highlighted some of those possibly available diamonds.

UNLUCKY YOU

(Name: ERA/FIP)

Cliff Lee: 3.18/2.58
Francisco Liriano: 3.62/2.66
Yovani Gallardo: 3.84/3.02
Chad Billingsley: 3.57/3.07
Brandon Morrow: 4.49/3.16
Zack Greinke: 4.17/3.34
Gavin Floyd: 4.08/3.46
Jason Hammel: 4.81/3.70
Homer Bailey: 4.46/3.74
John Lackey: 4.40/3.85

Jeff Francis: 5.00/3.88
Luke Hochevar: 4.81/3.93
Justin Masterson: 4.70/3.93
Edwin Jackson: 4.47/3.86
Ricky Nolasco: 4.51/3.86

Scott Baker: 4.49/3.96

Kevin Slowey: 4.45/3.98 (wow, Minnesota had horrible defense this year)

Jake Peavy: 4.63/4.01

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.69/4.05

Craig Stammen: 5.13/4.06 (Perfect target)
Bud Norris: 4.92/4.17 (Would love to kick the tires on him)
Paul Maholm: 5.10/4.18
Chris Narveson: 4.99/4.22
James Shields: 5.18/4.24 (Would TB sell low?)
Rick Porcello: 4.92/4.31
John Ely: 5.49/4.38
Kyle Davies: 5.34/4.46
Joe Blanton: 4.82/4.34

Now with the "lucky" ones I noticed many superstars had lower ERA's than FIPs, yet their FIPs were outstanding too. So no, even though he had a 50+ point difference, Roy Halladay is not going to be on this list with his 3.01 FIP. Therefore I capped the players on this list to have to have a higher FIP than 3.40. This is a list of players were should specifically NOT target in trades or signings, unless we somehow bolster our offense without taking away our shiny sparkling defense. I bolded a couple of players I've seen posters say we should get, to show that no, that's not really a good idea.

GOOD FROM FAR, FAR FROM GOOD

Clay Buccholz: 2.33/3.61
Brian Duensing: 2.62/3.85
Jamie Garcia: 2.70/3.41
David Price: 2.72/3.42
Tim Hudson: 2.83/4.09
RA Dickey: 2.84/3.65
Trevor Cahill: 2.97/4.19 (We really should sell high, he's not going to have a sub 3 ERA again)
Johan Santana: 2.98/3.54
Madison Bumgarner: 3.00/3.66
Cole Hamels: 3.06/3.67
Jonathan Sanchez: 3.07/4.00
Matt Cain: 3.14/3.65 (SF had good defense in addition to their "mojo")
Gio Gonzalez: 3.23/3.78
Jon Garland: 3.47/4.41 (Dodgers are stupid, volume 1)
Ted Lilly: 3.62/4.27 (Dodgers are stupid, volume 2)
Tommy Hunter: 3.73/4.99 (Wow, he sucks)
Ian Kennedy: 3.80/4.33
Jeremy Guthrie: 3.83/4.44
Bronson Arroyo: 3.88/4.61
Matt Garza: 3.91/4.42
Wade Davis: 4.07/4.79 (TB had great D this year, huh?)
Randy Wolf: 4.17/4.85
Wade LeBlanc: 4.25/4.80
Vin Mazzaro: 4.27/5.13 (heh)
Armando Galarraga: 4.49/5.09
Dave Bush: 4.54/5.13

And there you have it. Talk amongst yourselves, I'm off to eat leftovers....