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PxP: The B-Word
by elcroata on Nov 23, 2010 2:42 PM PST
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Nice write-up
Daric is really exceptionally blowing it by bunting so much.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
We should just start sending Daric and the FO
letters showing them why he should never bunt again.
Ever.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Nov 23, 2010 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
Not ever, but close to it imo.
Like… man on 2nd, no outs, tied game, bottom of the 9th is when i want him to bunt the runner over. But other than that… no more bunting.
I recommend anything that mentions Dickey Pearce
He was my favourite pre-1860s base ball player.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
Ugh. I meant 1880s of course
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
The greatest bunter of recent years is easily Ramon Hernandez
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
a fine post, where ancient history and sabermodernism meet
only on AN would this happen.
Silence s'il vous plait!! Vous ne voyez pas que je suis en train de se masturber?!?
question...
in the graphic titled…bunting with runners on…what do all the numbers represent? i understand that the highlighted one is run expectancy for the circumstance but do the other two numbers mean?
I love that
I sleep and problems get solved :)
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
always excellent
question
Yet, it was not with the glove
did he even use a glove?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
He might have
but only towards the very end. I think it was 1875 that the first ones were introduced.
Good catch .
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
As always, a great great read.
But you should really pay your wife more for those awesome illustrations.
Heh
She is actually in Spain with her Mother who underwent surgery (all seems to be well), so I recycled the one she did for me when I wrote the lefthanders piece. Just changed the numbers on it :)
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
By the way, where is "Error" under possible bunt outcomes classified?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
That might account for the missing 9.2%. If you total up all the outcomes, it only adds up to 90.8%. dan, any ideas why that is? Prima facie, it didn’t look like it added up to 100%.
If 9.2% of bunts resulted in errors that would change the outcome of the study, no?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2010 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
Further down
I only listed ten most likely outcomes as there are 29 all together. “Error on sacrifice hit” accounts for 1.1% and “Reached on error” for further 0.5%.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
That low, huh?
I guess “putting pressure on the defense” really is complete nonsense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Seems so
It is a tad higher than the baseline mark of 0.9% when I check all ~1mil plate appearances I have in the DB.
Bunting for a base hit results in 1.0% ROE and sacrifice bunting in about 1.1%. So that’s basically one to two errors more on every 1,000 bunts.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
but aren't those "errors" usually just plays where the runner beats it out anyway?
I have NO rooting interest. It simply become[s] a process of elimination of who I dislike less. - 67MARQUEZ
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Nov 23, 2010 11:26 PM PST up reply actions
I would have to speculate on that
So you are saying that there might be higher percentage of a base hit and an error for bunting? Which one, sacrifice or bunting for a base hit?
I have no data available to either support or dispute that, but at least for the sacrifice bunt I doubt it is a factor. Sacrifice bunts are normally not placed aggressively down the line and the batter also shows bunt early. That is why only 10% of the ones put in play end up being base hits, as opposed to 40% when bunting for a base hit. That means that it is not likely an error is committed on the runner who beats it out anyway all too often, because something must go a little wrong for that runner to reach in the first place.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
Btw. one of the 29 outcomes is
a bunt line drive. I kid you not.
There were 23 of those over last 5 years, the latest one belonging to our Kurt Suzuki. If you have MLB.tv check out the September 29th game at Anaheim at around 3:14 mark. Suzuki tried to sacrifice Larish to second base and hit a nice little sharp bunt line drive to third baseman. It did have more distance in it than anything that Kendall hit since 1999.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
Teams and managers know these stats (I hope so)
So is there any statistical reason of why they still bunt? Or they just do it because “thats how you play the game”
There is a time and place for the bunt
In one of the previous posts I wrote about it a bit. For example, when playing for one run in the late innings, and having runners on first and second and nobody out, a sacrifice is actually a good thing, because you increase your chances of scoring at least one run.
Also, bunting someone like Miguel Cairo is different than bunting someone like Daric Barton, because of what he would probably do if not bunting.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
wouldn't it also depend on who is bunting?
If Coco Crisp is up, he has a high probability of not making an out while bunting.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
Thanks for really doing it before reading
Were I to chose without research, I wouldn’t have done much better.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
I had no clue whatsoever, but
you seemed to want us to guess. I guessed Ichiro, just because I like him, but I really had no idea.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I did, indeed
It seemed to me it would be a good opportunity to test perception against numbers. Or, as in your case, sympathy level against numbers :)
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
You've forgotten a certain someone with a 1.000 BABIP on bunt hits
None other than:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1564&position=DH/OF&season=0
That’s right, Mr. Jack Cust.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
Heh
Had he done that 10 more times, I would have gladly listed him
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
But in all seriousness, great writeup as always!
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Nov 23, 2010 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
And in all seriousness
Thanks, appreciated.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
Great story
The old rules of baseball were, happily, eventually refined and the game is much more compelling. One of the most instrumental in creating baseball we know today, was Henry Chadwick:
It is surprising how much one man added to the game.
Great analysis on bunting by the way. I still call now and again for a bunt during Athletics game threads here on AN. Perhaps there needs to be more situational data in the analysis? Cannot take it on, but I wish I had time to do so.
Officially awaiting the 2011 MLB season
by One won lost won on Nov 23, 2010 10:22 PM PST reply actions
I hope this doesn't read as if I were completely against bunting
Because I’m not. I certainly think that there are places and times for it, only not with Daric Barton in early innings. And thanks.
"Cry in Practice, Laugh in the Games"
- from a Japanese baseball clubhouse -
Fantastic post
as usual, of course. I’m quite impressed with the melding of statisical analysis of your database combined with archival research, plus it’s just fun to read through. Thanks for all your time and effort, I know that for me it’s one of the things that keeps me coming back to AN.
And it is the appreciation
like this that keeps me writing them. Thanks.
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
Love it. Rec'd, as usual.
It really makes me wonder where people (like me) get these ideas that some players are such good bunters, when they are absolutely abysmal.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Thanks
I think it has a lot to do with how often they bunt and how often the possibility of them bunting is mentioned during their at bats. Also the positioning of the infield can make us think – wow, defense respects this guy, he must be a great bunter.
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
I think how often they bunt is easily the biggest part
It’s like stealing bases. The guy with 40 steals seems like a way better base-stealer than the guy with 10 steals, even if the first guy is 40 for 65 and the second guy is 10 for 10.
Fantasy Sports Columnist for Big Cat Country
by CaliforniaJag on Nov 24, 2010 9:01 PM PST up reply actions
You are a beautiful blend of everything that is good about AN.
Thank you for your contributions. Heavily rec’d.
I'm here to talk about the past.
and then there's me.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
by mikev on Nov 24, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Excellent
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
Thanks, Don
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
This is awesome.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. –Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Thank you
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
This is awesome.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. –Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Thank you
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
What Pam said
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
heh
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
Just trying to bump up the comment count in here ;)
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. –Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
What Pam said
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
heh
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
Great, great presentation
But I think you’re missing out by focusing on run expectancy rather than win expectancy.
In certain situations, the lower run expectancy event can increase a team’s chance of winning; increasing your chances of scoring at least one run can be more valuable than increasing your total run expectancy. I’m not talking about Barton bunting in the 1st inning of a scoreless game, of course, but tied or one run games in the late innings. Sacrifices are far more common in those situations than in other situations, and this where you need to look at WE instead of RE.
Thanks!
You are right and I actually covered that in the previous post – check it here if you have time. I looked at exactly what you are saying – late and close games and the run distribution instead of average. In this one I tried to get into more detail about the differences between bunt theory and reality.
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
You mentioned a couple player's OPS when attempting to bunt.
Do you have Crisp’s OPS when attempting?
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
It was actually OPS when placing the bunt in play
And it is simply 2 x AVG. So, for Crisp, it would be 1.096
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect
I see, that's pretty good.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
THINK OF THE PUPPIES, DARIC!!!!!
That, and great post as usual.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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