Chris Carter and the 2011 A's Offense.
It's Monday, it's slow at work, and the fact that there will be no A's baseball again until february is depressing me so I wanna talk a little about Chris Carter and what he might add to the 2011 Offense. Let me go on record as saying I DO NOT in any way think Carter is going to come in next year and single handedly make this teams offense legitimate. However, I took a look at his numbers last night to see how he fared after opening the season 0-33 and liked what I saw. He was noticeably more comfortable at the plate, and that showed in the results.
It's never been a question of whether or not Carter was going to need some adjustment time at the Major League level, that has always been obvious. He has always needed a decent amount of at-bats to get going after a promotion to a new level so the fact that he started off slowly I really don't think suprised many people (although 0-33 definitely did suprise some people). A couple of games after his 2nd promotion to the bigs, and a few games prior to him actually collecting that first hit he started looking much better. He was working the count more, staying back and laying off more off-speed stuff, and putting some really good swings on the ball. Then he got his first hit, and just like I (and many others) expected, he got on a pretty good roll the next 38 AB's to end the season. A pretty good roll to the tune of a .342/.422/.605 slash line with 3 HR's and 7 RBI. He also cut down on the K's with 8 compared to 13 in his first 33 AB's. He also walked 6 times over this same period of time. Now obviously this was a small sample size, and when you stretch that line out to include his 0-33 prior, it doesnt look too nice (.186/.256/.329).
So, my question to AN is, what should we reasonably expect out of Carter in 2011 and beyond that over the course of his career? I realize that this season was such a small sample size so it's impossible to have a great idea of what he'll do, but many of us have seen and know more about him now then we did this time last year and personally, i'm quite encouraged after watching him lately. For such a big guy, he has such a nice and short, compact stroke to go along with a good amount of bat speed. He's always gonna be vulnerable to off-speed stuff, but I think he also showed he can lay off some pretty good breaking pitches. He just has that "look" at the plate like he belongs, and will be legit at the MLB level.
Can we count on him to bat in the 5 hole next year behind a nice, new # 3 and/or #4 hitter in the lineup? With some further development offensively from some of the other young guys on the team (Barton, Pennington, Suzuki) will this team be able to compete if Beane only manages to add one more bat to the current group? What's your thoughts folks??
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No offense
But please re-format this with paragraphs or something. I’m having trouble reading this…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
hopefully he doesn't follow his hot first september
with a barton-esque first full season in the bigs
BK: This guy is on fire, he is really smokin'.
KenKo: Oh yeah, Bill? What's he smokin'?
Barton said that he matured and that why he's gotten better
Carter will be 24 next year and a couple of years older than Barton was in 08’, I dont see him having the same issues Barton did(remember him diving into the shallow end of a pool mid season). Anyways, I expect Carter to at a minimum put up Swisher circa 2005 numbers.
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
You expect Carter to be a 6 WAR player in 2011? Awesome!
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Close to what I would predict, which is something like
.240/.320/.500. I think he’ll eventually hit for a high AVG and OBP but that he’ll slug out of the gate.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i'll take that
hey Nico, I remember at the beginning of the year we both wanted Carter to get a full year at AAA, i think thats going to pay off next year.
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
Yup. I do wish he had played LF more, though, as
I think by July 1st it was pretty obvious that’s where he needed to be.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Checking some boxscores it looks like Carter was playing 1B exclusively until July 7 when he appeared in RF
He was at 1B again until playing LF July 17, then he DHed, played 1B again for a few games, and went back to LF the last game of the Colorado Springs series I was at (July 22). Then he played 1B three of the four in Tacoma and finally played LF three of the four games at home against Colorado Springs at the end of the month. He was out there for the better part of just two weeks before his first call-up here.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
To be honest, I'm really coming around on NSJ's idea to keep Carter in AAA to start next year.
Call it the service time game if you want to, but he legitimately needs to work in left field. A lot. Where it won’t cost the A’s wins.
Pam liked my old sig better.
That is a valid reason, I'd say
I want to see Carter succeed in LF but I get the feeling he’s going to need at least half a season of routine work out there to start with. Getting it in Sacramento is better for all.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think everyone WANTS to see him succeed in LF
Just differing levels of optimism about whether he will or not.
Regardless of your level of said optimism, there’s some time to figure out whether he can play there or not before the season starts, but the team can’t commit itself to him (i.e. by not signing any good free agents) before it really knows whether that experiment has legs or not.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
By "can't" what I really mean is "shouldn't"
I’m not trying to fill this thread up with my own comments, honest— just to avoid more weird misinterpretations like the ones that plagued the last thread.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yeah, there's a lot to be said for having confidence in him working out there but hedging your bets...
…by going after a corner OF as well.
Let’s say they get a corner OF for a few years. That’d make it much easier to even move Carter to DH more permanently, if that’s the way the A’s decide should LF not work out for him at all.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Paul you ignorant slut...
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Thank you for reformatting!
I think that we should see Carter start the season at somewhere around the 6 spot, hopefully not higher in the lineup (7, 8, 9),
Next year if his wOBA can stay above .360, I’ll be quite happy with his performance.
That being said, I think it’s important for him to really rake as his defense in the OF is worrisome (from the sight test, I think most can agree).
Therefore, in order for Carter to meet my expectations of him being a 5 WAR player as an A (whether these expectations are reasonable or not, I don’t care, it’s my personal opinion), so he either needs to work on the defense immediately or be a .400 wOBA hitter, which I believe he’s capable of.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
No problem on the reformatting
and thanks for the input. I had a chance to see Carter a handful of times when he played in Stockton, and once more in Sac but until seeing him when he reached Oakland that was about it. He just looks like a different hitter to me then most big power, high K guys. He has such a nice compact and powerful stroke and seems to get the bat through the hitting zone so quickly. Maybe i’m being blinded by optimism but I think people that claim he won’t be more then a .240-.250 hitter are selling him short.
Agreed
I think that if he gets the right coaching at the Major League level, he can maintain his power levels and cut down on the strikeouts a bit. There’s just so much ease in his swing and it rarely looks like he’s really gearing up to knock one out.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Split DH duties w/ Cust?
Who is a better defender, as far as that goes?
Too early to tell
Cust’s UZR this year suggested he was average, but we know that’s an extremely SSS and over more time he’s more like something between -5 and -10 over 150 games.
Carter wasn’t very good in the OF, but to be fair he didn’t play much there in the beginning of the season in the minors. I still hold a chance for improvement as he is somewhat mobile for his size and maybe he can work some in the offseason.
That being said, I think Carter would be better than Cust in the OF over an entire season…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
my prediction...
250/350/500. Although http://minorleaguesplits.com/ being down is not helping me.
by chri5 on Oct 4, 2010 3:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I predict .240/.320/.440 with sub-replacement level defense-plus-positional-adjustment
Gifting him a roster spot would be really foolish.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I agree
lets play Matt Carson some more.
"I wanted to see how much my computer programming skills had improved since the last time I was arrested." - octopus virus
by Zonis on Oct 4, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You sound like that sirbed character
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
wrong brian
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Soo.. where does he go?
Back to AAA where he will be 25? I think you just gotta bite the bullet and hope he has a good year.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
If one agrees with Paul that he doesn't warrant a roster spot,
I think the best move would be to trade him. I think another team would value his potential power and overlook the defensive weakness.
(Well, actually, that other team would be me. Because if it were turned around, and Carter played how he did in 2010 for a different team and that team thought he was replacement level due to bad defense, I’d be here calling for him as a trade target to go out and get.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I wouldn't be totally against a blockbuster trade with him
Sure it has huge potential to blow up in your face, but as a center piece for Choo or someone better? I really think about it.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Id rather take my chances with Carter.
Also doesnt Choo have to server 2 years in the army before his 30th BDay… and hes what.. 27?
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
might get it waived
high profile Koreans = good for Korea. They need to get out of Japan’s shadow.
"I wanted to see how much my computer programming skills had improved since the last time I was arrested." - octopus virus
Ah ok.
Wasnt sure if he could be waived.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
It's likely that if they win the international tournament this fall, they'd waive it.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm interested to know where he would rank in your assessment of the A's farm system
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Are you asking me?
I don’t really have an assessment of the A’s farm system. I like to watch the prospects, but I’m a goober fan when it comes to assessing them. I don’t really have projections of how they’ll do. Just how much I like them. I like Carter a lot. He’s my favorite.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
A goober fan?
Is that like an uber-fan, except with peanuts instead of Friedrich Nietzsche?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
24, not 25
It makes a fairly significant difference.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I agree that for next year he'll probably hit .240ish
but I think he can manage a higher OBP% based on his minor league track record, and how his eye has looked since he’s gotten some AB’s in. I also think he could easily ISO higher then .200. If I had to make a prediction I would say .240/.330/.465. While his defense (If he ends up in LF and doesn’t improve over the offseason) may lower his value, I think you gotta let the guy play to add some offense and to let him continue to adjust at the big league level. If he can manage a slash line somewhere between your prediction and mine as a rookie, I don’t think its too far-fetched to think that he’ll continue to develop more power and hit in the .260’s with a .250+ ISO within a few years.
I just don’t see the poing in letting him sit in AAA anymore. I think we just gotta let him play and continue to develop. Would it really be a huge suprise if he came out and hit .255 with 27-30 HR’s next year? With our offensive problems could we really afford to not have that somewhere in the lineup? I guess if we managed to grab two big bats to stick in the OF maybe, but I guess I just don’t see that happening.
The point of letting him sit in AAA is so that the 2011 Athletics can win more baseball games and hopefully go to the playoffs
N’est ce pas?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I guess I just don't see any better, or realistic options that would give the A's
a chance to win more baseball games and hopefully go to the playoffs. If his defense is that poor, and DH isn’t an option because of Cust then like someone said below, I’m thinking using him in a trade for a young OF’r is the way to go.
If Carter can manage an .800 OPS next season, which I don’t think is out of the realm of possibilities for him, and he can manage to improve somewhat in LF over the offseason, what would his value be compared to any options either internally or on the FA market (realistic targets)? Who is a better option? I’m not asking these things to be a smart ass, I am genuinely wondering what your opinion is. If the A’s don’t upgrade the offense this offseason i’m going to flip the F***out considering how solid our pitching staff and defense are.
I think Carter will slug better than that
For one thing, he’s probably less susceptible to park factors than most as what he hits deep he flat out mashes. If he makes the team out of ST in 2011 I think he’ll strike out more than one would like, and as a result won’t hit for a high average, but will still get plenty of doubles and HRs, as well as walks.
I’d like to see him make the team Opening Day — let him hit big league pitching, and keep learning to hit it better and help the A’s as a slugger in 2011, and if he can’t improve his fielding then move him to DH. He’s ready to hit big league pitching and the A’s need big league hitters. Let him play.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I could see him slugging more then that as well
I just don’t want to get too ahead of myself after seeing the numbers our “power hitters” have put up the last few seasons. He crushes the ball, but at the same time I could see him hitting a lot of warning track moon-shots that would be out in a lot of other parks. He’s definitely got an advantage as far as power is concerned in that park, but I think it’ll still rob him of 4-5 over the course of the season.
I personally don't think his OBP or SLG will be that low
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with this projection.
It’s also rather amusing to see all these .500 SLG and ~.850 OPS projections when just 30 something at bats ago, everyone was agreeing that he’s not ready.
I can’t even remember the last player to SLG .500 or greater in their first full season in Oakland. You’d probably have to go back to McGwire.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
heck
The last Athletics to slug over .500 in a full (ish) season was Jack Cust in 2007.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
actually
Jack Cust’s 2007 season was the last time that a player slugged 2007 in their first full season. Though that is misleading considering that he was 28 that year.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, I forgot about Jack.
I missed him cause he wasn’t a rookie that year. But damn, that was a great season of hitting for him.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Yeah
A bit misleading because he was no longer a rookie.
And man, he was awesome that year.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, whatever, .480 then. I don't know
I was bullish on Carter throughout his 0/33, so I think I get to be bullish now. Bull what…is another matter. ;-)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not everybody...
Was that 0-fer streak ugly? Yes. But it certainly didn’t make me think he wasn’t ready.
by chri5 on Oct 4, 2010 8:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Well he was clearly not ready when he was 0-15 and ready when he was 0-33
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
It doesn't necessariliy take a long time to turn a corner
though you point is well taken.
Fun fact—the last guy to do it before Cust was another old guy, none other than Matt Stairs.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Cust, Thomas, Chavez, Durazo, Tejada, & Giambi....
the only A’s to slug over .500 this century.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:58 PM PDT reply actions
This century sucks
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
It will work out in Spring Training
I don’t think any decision will be made on Carter until the team sees how he performs in spring training. I also think there’s no sense in putting all the offensive pressure on him.
So my guess is they’ll operate over the winter with the notion that Carter will spend a little time in the minors, sign an outfielder with power, and if possible, upgrade the power possibilities at DH or 3B. Starting the season with Werth, Crisp and Sweeney/Davis wouldn’t be all that horrible, especially if someone who can hit 25 HR is playing third base (though outside of Beltre I haven’t a clue who that would be).
Best case scenario in 2011 is that Barton and Sweeney develop power strokes, but I’m not holding my breath on Sweeney.
A few quick thoughts
I don’t think the A’s can count on Carter to be a big offensive addition next season, but also don’t see much point in keeping him in Sacramento for long – if at all – in 2011.
If he’s hitting for a decent OBP, and providing much-needed power, the A’s need to find a place for him in the lineup, either in the outfield (if he gets better) or at DH.
On the other hand, the A’s need an established offensive force in the outfield, one way or another. If the team acquires such a player in the offseason, the team may have to choose between Carter and Cust at designated hitter. Carter is protected, and other teams don’t really want a DH who hits 13 home runs. So the team will have time to make a choice, unless they dump Cust in the offseason or he signs elsewhere.
If he isn't going to be a big offensive addition, then that's reason enough to keep him in Sacramento
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
i love this sound the ball makes off his bat
He is going to struggle at first but id say he finishes with 25-30 HR 75-90 RBI
OBP .360 Avg .255 Slg .500
I think that if we get a #4 hitter it will really help his numbers a lot!!!
Bring in Dunn
"Holy Toledo"-Bill King
by A's fan since birth on Oct 5, 2010 12:49 AM PDT reply actions
None of us get decide what we want to be. We have to accept ourselves as we are.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's deep, man.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Something to think of
Adam Dunn will be a Type B Free Agent, so no pick need be given up. Mark Ellis, ironically, is a Type A, though there’s no way we’d give him Arbitration, and if we did, he’d for sure accept since Type A status would be the kiss of death for his free agent chances (see: Orlando Cabrera).
I still see Crawford as the biggest FA target we need, though I have doubts about the organizations ability to to convince him to sign, let alone their willingness to go after anyone.
"I wanted to see how much my computer programming skills had improved since the last time I was arrested." - octopus virus

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