SB Nation Bay Area Editor's Pick
Its all about UPGRADING the team (2011 content)
Over the last bunch of weeks and essentially all this season, every poster on here has given their views on who we should target in a trade this offseason. This post will give you our current team's WAR (fangraphs) per position, where that ranks, and who is available via a FA (or trade) that is a significant upgrade over what we have.
*PERSONAL NOTE* I'm really happy with 2010 although it was frustrating watching us trot out replacement level garbage in the corner outfield positions, I feel like a Ryan Ludwick type really could have made things more interesting with Texas, but it appears Billy Beane looks gun-shy after the Matt Holliday fiasco and sat on his hands, combing over the garbage and throwing it at the wall to see if it stuck. Only Chris Carter really got the fans excited in his last 30 PA's, and so ends our night. Nevertheless the team satisfied both sides of their fanbase, securing a protected pick AND finishing at .500 and in 2nd place.
1B: Daric Barton 4.9. The 7th best 1B in baseball this year. The guy who finally looks to have it all together. He's not living up to those Mark Grace (good) comps, he's looking more like another Kevin Youkilis (better). The AL leader in walks, he's showing jussst enough power to have you want to believe that the 24 year old will be hitting 20+ dingers on the regular by the time he's 30. Out of the 6 players in front of him, 3 are untouchable (Morneau, Pujols, Votto), one is extremely expensive (MigCab) and 1 is about to be (Ade-Gon). The other is Huff....who I'm sure exactly 0% of people reading this would prefer over Barton. Barton's only issue is that because we have others who are good hitters who cant play anywhere but 1B/DH, meaning: it would be ideal if Barton moved to 2B, 3B or LF, but even that's not very worth it. You do not mess with a 5 WAR guy. Verdict: No way to upgrade/keep him.
2B: Mark Ellis 3.2. Wow, I'm confused. Ellis sat at 1.8 no less than 3 weeks ago but a blistering September threw him into the top 10 2B, tying Orlando Hudson and making himself a Type A Free Agent. In terms of improving here, the players who might be available are Rickie Weeks (6.1), Kelly Johnson (6.0), Dan Uggla (5.1) and Hudson. How do we take Ellis's season though? He was miserable at the plate for 3 months, then a total god in the last one (That was a 988 OPS for those counting). You gotta think Ellis's Sept was a clear fluke and he's still not going to $6MM on the open market. I'd take him on a 1/$3MM deal but I think Hudson is a better option, and Weeks the most interesting.
Johnson looks like a product of his park, but still has the defensive chops to be an interesting target. Uggla is a masher through and through, but awful on defense. However, only Hudson and Ellis will not cost players. Hudson did lead all 2B in UZR and suffered a wrist injury that sapped his effectiveness at the plate. Verdict: Either sign Hudson to a 1/5, Ellis to a 1/3 or trade for Weeks.
SS: Cliff Pennington 3.7. Ladies and gents, we have the 6th best SS in baseball here. He's young and was largely misrepresented by his injury-riddled minor league numbers. You should believe in him, but if you ever have a chance to upgrade you should. That would mean acquiring Hanley Ramirez or Steven Drew which in this case, are unlikely occurrences. Verdict: No way to upgrade/keep him.
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff 2.9. This one is quite strange, is Kouz that good on defense? Does he really stink that much with the bat? The talent pool at 3B is starting to dwindle after years of greatness, at this point only Adrian Beltre is available and an upgrade, unless you want to overpay for David Wright. I don't think Case Headley is available either. I'd like another look at Kouz, perhaps with him never hitting higher than 7th all year, I think he might be better than this year with the bat, and might keep that glove up and around the better ones, he's still young enough to change his approach at the plate. Verdict: Throw as much money and years at Adrian Beltre as possible, or stand pat.
C: Kurt Suzuki/Landon Powell 1.9. Awful, awful, awful production from a spot where we expected more. Zooks approach at the plate fell off a cliff, its like he punished the A's for locking him up with a new contract. Sadly, there's not much we can do here, I'd love to somehow get Mike Napoli and give him 550 PA's but the A's aren't going to admit they blew money on a guy who had a bad year, compounded by being played relentlessly. Rest well this winter Kurt, we need you better than you were this year. Verdict: Create a new "player kidnapping" rule and throw Joe Mauer in the van, drive back to Oakland, win the World Series....or hope that Kurt goes to hitting school in the offseason. Either way we cant upgrade because we are locked in with Suzuki.
OF: Raj Davis/Coco Crisp/Ryan Sweeney/Gabe Gross/Eric Patterson 4.8. Yup, 4.8. That's pathetic. Barton was worth as much as all 5 combined. That's not good. Crisp reps 3.3 of that 4.8, so he can stay, but how hard will it be to replace a total of 1.5 WAR between 4 players? Um, easy as hell. This is why we were not contenders this year. If you want to get all micro with it, those 4 players are what sunk our year: Patterson & Gross are gone/goners, and Raj will most likely be relegated to a 5th OF/PR spot. That leaves Sweeney, who will most likely be hurt anyway and needs to be gotten rid of simply because we cant afford to upgrade the places where we have similar hitters, namely C & 3B. These 3 new players will need to be a starting LF, a starting RF and a 4th OF.
Chris Carter looks to have done enough to be in LF on opening day, that leaves us with a RF need, a guy who can play defense and hit well. We know for sure Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth will be available (and looking at the most money), I'm supportive of buying low on Magglio Ordonez too (although his D is just average). Other potential upgrades who may be available via trade include Shin Soo-Choo, Nick Swisher, Corey Hart, JD Drew, David DeJesus (at deadline), Cody Ross, Ryan Ludwick. Verdict: Re-up Crisp and go with Carter in LF and either sign Crawford, Werth or Ordonez or trade for Choo, Swisher, Hart, Drew, DeJesus, Ross or Ludwick. Release Sweeney, keep Rajai as a 5th OF, and find a better hitting 4th than Sweeney.
DH: Jack Cust 2.4. Okay, I'm just about sick and goddamn tired of people hating on Jack Cust. He was the 4th best hitting DH in the AL this year, despite missing 6 weeks due to poor front office player management. Give him a full year and he's probably #1 or 2. Unless you want to get Papi, Manny, Konerko or Dunn, you simply cannot upgrade over him based off this year with players that are available. Paying big money on a long term deal for a DH = not smart GMing either. Cust will cost us around $3-4MM and that's a perfect complimentary piece for our new RF and the Cartermasher in LF. Verdict: Let Cust play 150+ games, watch the offense roll in.
Adam Rosales 1.6. Funny thing about Rosales, he was second in innings at 1B, 2B, SS & 3B and even had 3 games in LF. That makes him a pretty nice versatile bat off the bench...which is where he belongs. Some people have been talking about giving him an everyday role, I think that would be as smart as sticking Cust in LF full time. Verdict: keep him on the bench, we are A's after all he will probably get 400+ PAs anyway, unless he gets injured himself like he did this year, in TrueAthletic© fashion.
There you have it, a nice little jumpoff for those thinking about offseason targets. We can in theory make moves, but in this writers opinion the only one we really need to make is bringing in a new RF. Beltre and finding a more interesting option at 2B would be nice, but look like pipe dreams, as does the reality of trying to sign Carl Crawford. A full season from Anderson, Crisp, Bailey & Weurtz certainly makes the A's better, as would a nice rebound from Outman and Devine. Carter knows how to hit bombs and Barton looks like he's on the up and up, we are almost there folks. Things are definitely going to be more interesting in 2011 for sure.
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Isnt Michael Taylor a RF?
WHat happened to him? Is he hurt? Or did he just not get a call up? It would ahve been nice to see him and Carter showcase so we can see if we have teh corner OF spots for opening day.
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
He had an absolutely terrible year
There were some injury problems too, but right now he’s not looking like an option for next year.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Well he is going to at AFL
So maybe he can get his confidence back in that hitters paradise. Hope he pulls a Grant Desme of last year in the AFL. Minus the whole quitting baseball thing.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
The A's didnt call him up
I believe the reasoning was that if they did, they would have had to keep him on the 40 man all winter to protect him from the rule 5 draft. if they didn’t he’d still be protected, so they chose to protect him.
No
They’re going to have to put him on the 40-man roster anyway.
They didn’t call him up because he sucked hind teat this season and didn’t deserve it.
Also, playing even a day in the majors gets a player a large salary bump in the minor leagues.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I didn't know that. How does one day of sitting on the major league bench
get you a large salary bump in the minors?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:04 AM PDT up reply actions
You're getting paid 1 day of 380K per year instead of being given a bag of tortilla chips and some juice boxes.
Pam liked my old sig better.
So he meant "over the minors" not "in the minors"? I see that but 1 day isn't that much.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
If you get called up, you get the major league minimum no matter how long you're in the bigs.
So, if you get called up on Sunday, send down on Monday, the team still owes you the major league minimum.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Wow. I didn't know that. Strange.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know for sure
But I think this is wrong. You only get paid the prorated major league minimum for however long you’re in the majors. I think.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I was under the impression that your salary gets a huge boost if you're ever put on the 40-man.
Like, Fautino de los Santos is in Midland, but he’s still getting a major league salary, not a minor league one.
Really? I thought they had split contracts
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure. It was just what I was thinking, for some reason.
Paul’s explanation below this makes more sense, though.
No, what you said was also correct
The worst salaries are for players who are not minor league FAs and have never been on a 40-man roster. Those guys are paid basically poverty-line wages.
Players who are on the 40-man but have never been in the majors are paid better, but not as well as players who have MLB service time.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't know why exactly
All I know is that the minor league minimum salary in AAA is like $30K if you’ve never been in the majors and $60K if you have been, even for a millisecond.
It’s just a rule of the game. Who knows why they came up with it. Maybe as a kind of “parachute payment” for MLBPA members who bounce around a lot?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Thanks
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Is it even $30K? Maybe before taxes?
Even someone like Michael Taylor was only taking home around $2,000 a month after taxes and that’s for what, five months of baseball?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That sounds about right
$30K a year minus taxes is around $26K-ish. That’s a little over $2000 a month.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Do they split that up during the entire year, then? Or just the season?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'm not sure I know what you mean here
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I mean, do they get paid over a full 12-month period or only during the 5 or so months they're playing?
I never asked a player that question. Never came to mind before.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I THINK it's only during the baseball season
but I’m not sure.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That's right
In some cases a player will ask for salary to be paid over a 12 month schedule, like C.C. Sabathia. It’s a rare exception. I’m sure there are some accounting reasons for keeping pay to the season.
I always assumed it was, but I could be wrong
I just think of some of them taking jobs during the off-season but that could also be a way to get a little extra income.
There are a few people I can ask.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Verified
I checked with someone and he said all baseball players are only paid during the season.
That suggests to me that the Michael Taylor taking home about $2,000 a month thing means he’s not even making $20K before taxes. Ouch?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Seems like that's why draftees angle for the biggest signing bonus they can get.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
Though the guys coming out of four years of college have the least leverage of anybody
They’re pretty much forced to take nothing if they want to keep playing since they can’t threaten to go back to college or in the case of high schoolers threaten to go to college in the first place.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
If his gross is only $20K
he’s paying about $1,500 in taxes, depending on what state he’s in.
(The estimate of $4K taxes on $30K gross, upthread, looks about right to me. Big difference between $20K and $30K.)
Taylor got a $131,000 signing bonus, by the way. He’s probably getting by on that while he waits for his call-up. Many signing bonuses are paid in installments (which helps with taxes), but I don’t know if Taylor’s is. Splitting it over three years would make sense, I think.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
After 4 years in the minors,
I’d think it’s safe to say his signing bonus is probably wiped out.
Minor league ball is a money-losing proposition until you reach free agency, given that players have to spend money on nutritional supplements, equipment, and so on. Most players work odd jobs during the offseason just to stay afloat.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're also allowed to use tobacco products
when you are on the 40.
I think it could be the fact that now you are governed by two different player’s association contracts Minor League vs Major League
Hmmm, that's interesting
I thought dip was universally banned across MiLB
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, that's what i thought as well.
It would make no sense to me to only ban it for guys not on the 40, especially since upper minors affiliates have guys who are on 40mans and guys who aren’t.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
FWIW
I took this last year. Now I can’t verify what it actually was but that looks like a dip pinch to me:

Last of the Ninth - Photography
It could be pomade
That’s what my canister of hair pomade looks like.
And Buck is pretty metro.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 5, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Caption this photo
“Hold on, I don’t want this pomade. I want Dapper Dan.”
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I'm a Dapper Dan man dammit.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Skoal Citrus
… and it’s pathetic that I know that with 100 percent certainty.
Oakland Athletics * St. Bonaventure Bonnies * Green Bay Packers * Buffalo Sabres * New York Knicks
by RyanFromBonas on Oct 11, 2010 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions
That sounds like an awful thing to put in one's mouth.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 11, 2010 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Guys on the 40 man are governed by the CBA
Guys not on it, aren’t. If you’re not covered by the CBA, MLB can basically do what they want. That’s why they have stricter drug testing for non-40 man guys as well.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
A more precise way of putting it would be that 40-man players
are governed by the MLB players’ association contracts while non-40-man players are governed by the MLB owners’ association contracts…
Minor leaguers are not unionized.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Minimum salaries, from the current CBA
(Article VI, section B):
For major league service = $400,000.
For minor league service, if player has at least one day of major-league service = $65,000.
For minor league service, if the player has signed his first major-league contract (ie, has been on the 40-man) = $32,500.
For minor league service, if the player has signed his second major-league contract = $65,000.
If he’s never signed a major-league contract at all (ie, never been on a 40-man roster), then he’s not covered by the CBA, so there’s no minimum except whatever the state’s minimum wage laws require.
These are figures for the 2010 season. The $60K and $30K that you (Paul) remember are the amounts for 2007, which was the first year of the current CBA.
The figures are annual salaries. These are prorated over the length of the regular season. So if opening day is April 1 and the last game is Oct 2, then that’s 185 days, so each day they’re paid 1/185 of the salary.
The CBA language says minimum of one day major-league service, not one millisecond, but maybe some other rule specifies that a partial day rounds up to a whole day. I’m not sure it’s even possible to be in the majors for less than a whole day. Once a guy is brought up, it might not be possible to send him back down till the next day.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Awesome. Thanks.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Two thoughts
1) I actually support throwing wads of cash at Dunn and think you should have had him as a DH option. He would immediately have a large positive effect on the power issue, he has shown a willingness to sign for a small market team, and you said yourself that he is better then Cust. I understand you are annoyed that many people undervalue Cust, but if you are going to include Crawford/Werth as options then you have to include Dunn.
2). Good point on Sweeny. He’s the opposite of Cust in that he’s overvalued by As fans. He reminds me of Jay Payton. He hits .300, can pass in center, and has a bit of power, but his tools don’t combine for any better then a 4th supersub outfielder. He would not be a starting outfielder on any contending team.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
isn't Dunn
going to demand to play in the field? I thought he was scoffing at the idea of being relegated to the DH position, but hopefully that’s changed in the past year.
Look if we can’t get Werth or Crawford or Beltre, we could try for Dunn and keep Raja around for D? i dunno, haven’t been checking stats lately.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Dunn is going to demand to play in the field? What next?
Landon Powell demands the green light.
Kurt Suzuki demands to pitch left handed.
Stomper demands to manage.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Stomper is managing.
Shhh, it’s a secret.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Elephants have large brains
Really, I think that stomper would have done a better job!
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Ryan Sweeney has a bit of power???!!?!!
I don’t think Ryan Sweeney can hit XBH in 2K Baseball even if you tried upping his power ratings.
[Insert repetitive "please stop mentioning Dunn, he makes no sense" post here]
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hey! I want to bump my fist here too!
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions
um the Nationals are not a small market team
they offered Tex 170 million dollars. Please get your facts straight.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
In that case Oakland isn't a small market either, since the SF Bay Area is larger and richer
than Baltimore – Washington.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Since when is market size defined by dollars offered?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
No matter what it's defined by, D.C. isn't a small market.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 5, 2010 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
What if you defined it by opening day payroll?
Since moving to D.C. in 2005 the Nationals have had an average opening day payroll of $55.1MM. For reference, the A’s average opening day payroll over that span has been $60.9MM. The Nationals payroll has been trending upward since opening up the new stadium but I don’t think it’s that wrong to say they’ve been at least operating financially like a small market team, especially up until the time when Dunn signed there.
A team's payroll does not determine the market they're in
However, the market can determine a team’s payroll.
Do you consider the Bay Area to be a small market? I sure don’t.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I guess in terms of baseball when I hear "small market team" I think of low payrolls.
I wouldn’t call the Bay Area a small market but I would consider the A’s to be a small market team, which I guess doesn’t make much sense. I was just thinking that going back to the comment above the Nationals are somewhat similar to the A’s market wise.
It does make sense.
“Small market team” has a meaning specific to the baseball market, which isn’t the same as plain population and income of a geographic area.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Not to me. I think of small market as few people with no money.
I think of small payroll in a market with lotsa people with lotsa money as stupid management.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
There's nothing wrong with your definition,
but it’s not the same as how the term is often used in discussions, especially by the owners and others in the business. So if you don’t recognize the difference, you’re going to read a lot of interviews and say, “WTF is he talking about?? [City x] isn’t a small market!!”
Some relevant factors in market size how they think of it are whether that region tends to like baseball (eg, Miami vs St Louis) or whether the city has a big TV region (eg, Pittsburgh vs Seattle)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Well, a baseball team can be a "small market team" by design if you associate it with how much they spend on payroll
But the market itself can be the complete opposite. I’d say it is in many cases. Sometimes that “small market team” is a team that’s just cheap, or it may be a team that just spends smarter than others. You’ll probably never see a team like the Yankees spend in line with most other teams even if they could and still win, though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 5, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I should have read and recommended it before posting above.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Region size isn't necessarily the same as market size either
The market size has a lot to do with competition for dollars. During baseball season, the A’s are competing against a lot more than just the Giants for entertainment dollars which shrinks their hold on the overall market. That’s what’s making them a small market team, not the fact that they reside in a highly populated region.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
Part of it also...
…is left over from historical references that have become ingrained in baseball minds. Back in the day when the Giants were a one-team market they drew in the 1.7m-ish range fairly regular. When the A’s first arrived the two teams roughly split that number. Not many, if any, new fan numbers were added. The bay area, while a sizable population center, just was not a hotbed of baseball like St Louis was and is.
Fast forward to the lat decade and there have been years where the two team drew over 5 million people combined. The area has grown a lot, in population AND baseball interest. Yet, the old stereotypes regarding “small market” remain. Sometimes it takes longer to lose an image than it does to create one.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
I never realized that there is such different views on what is "small market" in baseball.
If a team guided by, say, Lew and Billie can decide to spend very little, and this then leads to the definition that Oakland is a “small market”, that seems strange to me. Self induced small payroll does not equal small market.
If a team spends or doesn’t spend money, but does a piss poor job year after year in marketing, and hence has a low attendance, and that determines that it is “small market”, that also seems strange to me. Poor marketing does not equal small market.
If a team spends or doesn’t spend money, but does spend it unwisely, loses year after year, and fans stay away, and that determines that they are ‘small market’, that is strange also. Poor management does not equal small market.
Small market to me is based solely on the size of the market within some definable radius from the playing venue, say 50 miles, or some such parameter. A small market is a small market.
by robertmelvin on Oct 6, 2010 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I suspect when they're discussing themselves as a "small market" team
they referring to their overall whole of the market share in the bay area, not the size of the actual market.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
Size of market share is on them, though.
That’s why this is frustrating. if they cared to market the team, they could have a bigger market share. Talking about “small market” makes it sound like it’s just a hopeless fate. It’s not, by your description. It’s their fault.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 11, 2010 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Yay! A Ryan Sweeney is Jay Payton comment!
He really is you know.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I didn't know about the knees when I first compared them about 2-3 years ago
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Well done, PL!
A few things:
-I really don’t understand the Youkilis comp you’ve been giving Barton for awhile now. Perhaps he can bump the XBHs a bit, but Youk slugs around .550, which would mean a jump of around .150 (while I know Youkilis did it, what exactly makes you think Barton will, it’s not exactly common). Nonetheless, he’s a solid 4-5 WAR player now and I’m happy with that if we can get that power from other positions.
-Let’s just throw money at Beltre please, that will make me happy. He seems like the most likely of the “premier” FAs who we could possibly have a real chance of signing and
-I really think Donaldson could provide Suzuki’s production this year next year, if not more. That said, I don’t think he’s going anywhere, he’s gonna suffer some BS injury because Geren can’t say no to him in the lineup.
-Let’s please, please trade for Choo and sign him to an extension. He’s a very special player with a true 5 tool skill set.
-
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
The Barton/Youk thing is to do with age
Youk SLGd and unimpressive .429 when he was 27 then broke .500 when he was 29 and has kept it there through his age 31 year and doesnt look like slowing down anytime soon. He is patient like Barton and even though he starts funky, their swings are very similar. Youk wasnt known for power but he did a ton of doubles.
Barton is 24 and SLG’d 405 this year. His 2 blasts in that Seattle game looked pretty ominous to me and I know you cant base an opinion off 1 game, but it showed he actually CAN hit taters and he looked like he was even pretty surprised himself. I’m saying that Barton might be SLG around .500 when he’s 28+. He improved so much this year and if he can be counted on for 20 bombs a year he becomes an elite player instead of a very good one. Im not saying he will be the exact same player as Youk, but I think he’s way closer to that than to Mark Grace. Time will tell though.
Youk plays in Fenway
never sign or measure a Fenway player against any other player. Everybody falls in love with Boston hitters and gives them far more credit than they ever deserve. Out of Fenway they become average hitters like everybody else.
wait... everyone else is average?
EVERYONE?!?!?! runs and hides
wow, i thought average was taking all players and finding the middle ground… for that too happen everyone couldnt be average… someone’s gotta excel… someone’s gotta suck
Ted Williams was average out of Fenway too. If he had played in Cleveland he would never
have sniffed the Hall of Fame.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Again people, do your effing research
Youkilis’ home-away splits over his career are nearly identical.
Please stop throwing stuff out there without spending maybe 30 seconds to look and see if it’s true…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm on board with signing Beltre and trading for Choo.
Even if Beltre cant replicate his 2010, its pretty obvious at this point 2009 was a flukish off season for him. He didn’t hit the cover off the ball in Seattle but if he can do what he did in Seattle (2006-2008) offensively for us, he would be a solid upgrade both offensively and defensively over Kouzmanoff. I think Kouzmanoff could fetch us a solid bullpen piece so a scenario like this should benefit the A’s quite a bit.
Choo would probably be at the top of my wish list as far as trades go followed by Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence. I think we have the prospects, and IMO expendable MLB players (Wuertz, Breslow, HRod, Kouzmanoff, Rajai) that we could deal for one of these guys without completely draining our minor league system and depth.
I also would like to see the A’s sign a SP like Kuroda, De La Rosa or Ted Lilly. Add either of these guys to a rotation already consisting of Cahill/Anderson/Gio/Braden and your looking at one of the best rotations is baseball.
All of this might actually happen. I also wouldn't mind including Masterson in a Choo deal.
Mazzaro, Green, Taylor/Sweeney and Brown for Masterson and Choo? If they keep Ellis and add either Kouzmanoff or Beltre, Masterson could really thrive.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions
The addition of Green in a trade like that could help, but I still think that's not even close to enough...
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
If South Korea doesn't win the Asian Games this summer he has to serve mandatory military time
No point trading for a guy that’s not going to be able to play until possibly 2012
The worst person to run from is yourself.
They are a heavy favorite, no?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Japan is fielding a college team.
China and Taiwan stink, even with their best players.
Korea will be fielding a team of MLB’ers, NPB’ers & Korean League All-Stars.
"Burt Reynolds witnessed the conception of his own dad, and frankly, that's what's wrong with him."- TPDMTD!
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 5, 2010 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know if this is really true
I think South Korea is saying this is true. But if worst comes to worst and they don’t win, I think Choo will get an exemption anyway.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
What's the precedent?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
American draft dodgers not being forcibly extradited by Canada.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 5, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
So, Choo has to play for the Blue Jays???
and only home games, to boot?
"Burt Reynolds witnessed the conception of his own dad, and frankly, that's what's wrong with him."- TPDMTD!
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 5, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Are we supposed to imagine you saying "boot" with a Canadian accent?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Yay Kuroda
I fully support signing him for 2/14 or so.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 5, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate the idea of Beltre.
He’s coming off a career year in a tiny ballpark and a huge BABIP jump. I see him as more of a 3 or 3.5 WAR player than a 7 WAR player. He’s certainly good, but I only see him as a one to two win improvement over Kouz, which is certainly not worth throwing heaps of of money at. I think we’ll see a little regression with Kouz’s glove, but more with the bat, making him roughly the same player he was this year.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
by travdog6 on Oct 4, 2010 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Careful with the Beltre-ballpark argument
He was actually better away from Fenway this year. And really, while he’s most likely not the 7 WAR player he’s been this year, a 5 WAR 3Bman is pretty damn valuable.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point,
but still, dropping his BABIP roughly .030 points, he’s a completely different player. I don’t want the A’s to pay 10 mm for 2 wins, or however much it would be.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Really?
I mean yeah that doesnt make sense for this year and the last 3 years, but next year things are going to be much much closer and a 2 win upgrade might mean the AL West or not in 2011.
I think its time to make those little changes. Of course i’d love to sign Crawford, Beltre & Werth and trade Carter & Mazzaro for Fielder & Weeks (shhhh LET ME DREAM), because you get the feeling LAAAAA is going to go all in this offseason and the Rangers are still pretty good too. It depends on our rivals, but we need to upgrade wherever we can. Im just not sure Beltre would even come here, thats all.
Right,
but all the money you spend on Beltre could cost you wins from other players, theoretically. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love Beltre, and he’s a good player, but if you sign him, that contract will severely cripple the possibility of signing other players.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
the rangers will be less one C. Lee
by rollierollieOxenfree on Oct 4, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they'll get him, actually
They have so much money right now it’s ridiculous
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn't there some talk that those numbers were massively inflated?
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 4, 2010 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
They were pretty unbelievable, that's for sure
Maury Brown at Biz of Baseball thought they were close to impossible.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
He said the $3 billion was likely wildly inflated but I'm not sure about the $1.6 billion
I assume you’re referring to this article.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions
That's what I was referring to as well.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 5, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya but he projects more like 4 WAR, not 5.
Still a 4 WAR 3B is pretty good.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions
But
Anyone who believes Kouzmanoff is going to put up 3 WAR again next year should be opposed to paying Beltre a significant amount more for just one more win…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure anyone really believes Kouzmanoff is on track for another 3 WAR season
2-2.5 is more reasonable.
Still, there are clearly more important areas to upgrade.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Has he even had one 3 WAR season? By BB-Ref, he hasn't even had a 2 WAR season
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Fangraphs says 2.9 this year, which tops his best in San Diego (2.7 twice)
He’s been between 2.5-2.9 all four years he’s played a full season.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
So.....no
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Right, but higher than what BB-Ref's saying
Likely because of the defense.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Ya, I like UZR more than TZ so I agree with Fangraphs on that
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
+1
Not a fan of Beltre’s bat.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
I think the Red Sox
are going to throw a lot of money at Beltre to keep him around. He had a fantastic season this year and they don’t have other good options at 3rd.
Youkilis is a good option at 3B.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I have always wondered
why they did not move him to 3B full time and hire a mercenary bat to play 1B. Dunn would be a fit there.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
They had Lowell in the past, and then signed Beltre for not much money.
Now might be a good time to put Youkilis at 3B and sign Dunn or someone else as you suggest.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Well said and summarized, PL.
The corner OF situation is an absolute mess right now. Carter could maybe fill one of those holes, but not both. Of course, knowing Billy, he’s probably got some jaw-dropping trade in the works.
Like, say, a trade of $100-120M for 6 years of Carl Crawford?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
we really just should have signed Matt Holliday
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
heh.
As a Matt myself, I feel like the Matts that were on the 2010 A’s really didn’t do the name justice. Holliday would have been a better representative for the Matt Society.
Of course, he’d have been pilloried every time he didn’t get angry after striking out.
I bleed green and gold!!! (my doctor is worried)
Whocouldanode
Who wants to submit my application directly to Beane?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I know thats why I said it to you
and i think you mean submit your resume to frost since hes the one running the show now
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope
I’m more interested in soccer too
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I never said it
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
[cough]
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Sometimes I just can't read you.
Of course, knowing Billy, he’s probably got some jaw-dropping trade in the works.
Are you ridiculously optimistic, or sarcastic?
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 4, 2010 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I really doubt it. Allard Baird is no longer a GM.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I miss that guy.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Well, I guess I'm hopeful too.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 5, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
a thought...
I was thinking about the ballpark situation a bit today, and I came to a conclusion. I think if the Bud Selig MLB Ballpark Committee (or whatever it’s called) decides that the best thing is for the A’s to move to San Jose, then the project is pretty much a done deal. This will then create a specific year for the new park to open (2014? 2015?) and will end the seemingly endless purgatory the club is stuck in.
With the news of an actual deal in place, I bet the ownership makes a splash, and opens up their wallets. They’ll want to try to build some excitement leading up to the new park (like the Twins have done) and picking up a premier FA is one way to do it. This is our best chance at signing a Crawford/Werth kind of player.
If, on the other hand, nothing happens this offseason with finding the A’s a new park, I bet the owners don’t spend any money at all. RF will be some sad combo of Conor Jackson/Sweeney/not-ready-for-the-bigs-Taylor/scrap heap player.
So, I sure hope the committee gives its news before the FA signing window opens, because I think it’ll change how the A’s ownership approaches the offseason.
Also, good writeup PL78. I think perhaps the A’s will try to sign Ellis to a 2 year/ $8 million contract which would make both sides happy.
I bleed green and gold!!! (my doctor is worried)
So we're getting Pujols after 2011?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Conner Jackson
I know that he is likely to be non tendered but I think that there is a chance that he will return to pre injury arizona form. I bet he is in the mix to a certain extend next season.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 5:21 PM PDT reply actions
I agree.
I think Beane wants to give him a full shot post-injury (if that even exists). I would be very surprised if Jackson is non-tendered.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
Well, I would be very surprised if Jackson is let go.
I could see him getting non-tendered and signed for cheaper, because Conor is set to make a good-sized chunk of money. But I really don’t see Beane souring on Conor so much after one month, especially after he’s tried for years to get him.
I should have been more clear
the scenario that dannmerqury describes is what I was referring to when I said that he was likely to be non tendered. I hope that Jackson gets healthy and gets a full shot at being a full time player. His age 29 through 31 seasons could be good.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Meh.
He doesn’t play good defense, he has an established injury pattern on par with players like Duchscherer, Buck, and Crisp, and even when healthy he OPSed all of .823-.836, in the NL, in a hitter’s park, with a career high of 15 HRs. He’s just nothing special, at a position where the A’s need something special.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm very against
Jackson coming back. When our prized FA comes in Conor becomes completelu useless
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Injuries always happen
Nobody is immune from the bug from hell.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
I totally understand
that he didn’t have control over his health but even when he was starting I was so completely unimpressed by his play that I couldnt wait to get him off the team
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Not injuries to Jackson, but injuries to others.
I dont have faith in him, but I’m just saying when members of the starting 3 OF get hurt, he’s better than Matt Carson/Matt Watson/some of the other crap that floats around AAA.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
I'm OK with him as a AAA player, but will he really settle for that?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Getting a FA OF doesn't make Conor useless.
You don’t just get a single outfield. You go out and get about eight guys, as good as you can manage. This is also why all the “count on Carter” vs “don’t count on Carter” talk is meaningless. He’s one more guy. If his defense is passable and his hitting is awesome, great, he’s in. If he needs to go back to AAA, OK, you’ve got other guys.
There’s no way we’re going to end up with too many OF’ers. Last winter, didn’t a bunch of people think Coco was useless? They were saying “but we already have a CF”.
When your 40-man roster fills up, that’s when you start worrying about who to cut.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The A's' 40-man roster is very, very full right now
They’re already going to be exposing several potential big-leaguers to the Rule 5 draft no matter what they do.
There’s no room for guys like Jackson and Hermida.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This amazes me given the number of crappy OF on the team
And yet, it’s true.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I actually
wouldnt mind Hermida sticking around
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Because?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I was starting to become
pretty impressed with his play the last maybe month and a half. Some timely hitting, didn’t get to see any real Sweeney type plays but he made the plays he was supposed to. Wouldnt mind him at least getting a shot in ST
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Would you give him a Non-Roster Invitation or cut someone
like Brown from the Roster?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Non-roster
and see what he can do. If he sucks, I wouldn’t be too dissapointed to see him go
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Agreed, and I'd do the same with Jackson.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess I wouldnt mind
him in ST. Just not so much when the season starts :)
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Hee
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that he should be in the mix and get a shot
Though you could argue that the shot that he should get should be of cortisone.
It is all a matter of who we are able to acquire. Dunn? Awesome. But, of the leftovers that we are bound to have around he stands out as a potential jewel in my mind. You’re right about his glove, however.
I would just hate for RF to be given to Sweeney again without all other options being explored (I am not sold on this as yet to come magical power from Swingles. Don’t get me wrong, I do like him but I do think that we as a fanbase tend to over value him).
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I support the release of the Matts and Gabe
but I am not ready to give up on Sweeney or Rajai. With Coco likely to be picked up, a Carter (with improvements this winter), Coco and FA outfield with Sweeney and Rajai as the 4th and 5th would work fine for me
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
This works for me to
I love Sweeney and Rajai as the 4th and 5th outfielders. Raj has the perfect skill set for a 5th outfielder.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
And
he ccan be important in big game situations to be a PR and make things happen when it’s needed
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
exactly
perfect 5th outfielder.
I hope that he pinch runs and plays defense for Carter a lot next season.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
If they're both healthy I'd be fine with just platooning the two of them
and signing a free agent to take the other non-Crisp spot.
I’ve already expressed my opinions about entrusting a roster spot to Carter plenty today.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Meh....that's still a 2.5-3 WAR combo. I dont' see that being enough to
compete with the better of Texas or a Crawforded Anaheim.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't see the A's signing two different corner OF though
For one thing, that would create roster/playing time issues. They want there to at least be an avenue for someone like Carter or Taylor to play his way onto the roster. That might happen if they signed someone to a one-year deal, but which outfielder that’s any good is going to sign a one-year deal?
For another, they’re not (with plausibly good reason) going to be willing to pony up.
Assuming the requirement that the move be a non-wasteful one (which basically rules out Crawford and Werth), I think the best bet is an outfield of Ordonez, Crisp, Sweeney/Davis.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
There's also a trade possibility with lotsa ammo for that
Carter, Green, Taylor, Mazzaro, Sweeney, Davis, Powell, Kouzmanoff. That has to be enough to be a core for say Choo and Kemp or Beltran.
You could throw in Brown, Marks, Krol, Dixon, Weeks, or Cardenas, as well.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess I'm just really down on the trade value of the A's farm system
I don’t think they even get a phone convo with the Indians about Choo, much less actually consummate a deal.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
What about Cahill & Green for Choo & Masterson?
Cahill’s younger than Masterson remember, thats a good package for a rebuilding team.
They would never do that in a million years
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
We would need to add another player, huh?
Green is looking like he will easily crack top 50 prospect lists next year though.
Do you mean the Indians would never do that or the A's?
I doubt the Indians would do it.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions
The Indians
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Why not at least ask what they would want?
I gotta think something like Mazzaro, Green, Taylor, Sweeney, Brown and Krol for Choo and Masterson would at least result in a counteroffer.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
The counteroffer is "sorry, the Rangers/Rays/Red Sox/whoever just blew your offer out of the water"
If they shop Choo, they’ll get better than the A’s can give.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This, basically
At his best, he was “pretty good but not great.”
It’s been three years since his best.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Remember when I said that the pitching was the disappointment this season?
The A’s position players were actually not-insignificantly above average this season by WAR. There aren’t a lot of gaps on the roster (though there’s clearly room for at least one corner OF, and two if you believe that Carter is defensively hopeless).
The key upgrade spot that I can see is actually— this is weird, so bear with me— fifth starter. Mazzaro was not good at all this season, and I don’t really trust Bobby Cramer as more than a 5th starter, nor do I trust Outman or Ross (or indeed the rest of the rotation) to be fully healthy. (The bullpen was a mess this year too, but I think it’s more internally fixable than the other areas of the team.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I've said all along: I hope the A's use the FA market to add a PITCHER
Then trade for one bat and you’re in pretty good shape.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 4, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I prefer someone who's actually at least a safe bet to give you 140-150 innings
Carl Pavano is my first choice IMO. I also like Kuroda.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
#thingsIwouldneverbelievein2008
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
199 in 2009, 221 in 2010
Safer bet than Webb, that’s for damn sure.
Maybe not the safest bet, but yeah.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
He'll probably be expensive though.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
And I’ve heard he’s a difficult guy to get motivated…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
It would amuse me if they or the Mets signed him to an expensive multi-year deal now
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Mazzaro was not good at all this season
I have to take issue with this. Sure Mazzaro took a little downturn towards the end of his stay with A’s but he had a lot of really good starts. I thought I saw him take a little off the fastball in order to gain better command of his fastball while retaining the movement that stood out from the beginning. I think he could very well impress us again in ST next year and lock up that fifth starter spot and I wouldn’t blink an eye in the process.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
I thought he was a good example
of a pitcher getting lucky and not being as good as his stats. Cahill and Braden were actually good; Mazzaro was often made to look better than he was by his defense or by fortunately placed hard hit balls.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i wouldnt say cahill was actually goog either
brade, ba & gio were all vastly better than he was this year. hes a solid 4th, and and i also agree signing a high risk/reward 5th (webb, duke again or even kuroda) is a smart move.
Well he wasn't really goog either
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions
He needs his change up.
If he works on his change up a lot, I think he has a shot at being a good 5th starter. It was good sometimes and terrible most of the time. (no stats to defend this though)
according to the radar gun on tv
His changeup was only slightly slower than his FB – not good at all, and although I can’t remember the exact numbers, Fosse mentioned it and that it wasn’t a big enough change, just ended up being an 85 mph FB (i.e., batting practice FB).
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 7, 2010 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I can see a lot of sense to that
They are a bit thin after Anderson/Cahill/Braden/Gonzalez. Everyone else has a question mark, and maybe a lot of 5th starters have question marks but if you can get a reliable one that could make a big difference over the course of the season.
Do that and improve the offense with a couple bats you can put in the middle of the lineup and watch out.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Before he was hurt
how was Tyson Ross? Any hope he could take the 5th spot?
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
and that's not what I want
as the 5th starter. It’ll be interesting to see what happens for that spot.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Well, you're talking about someone who prior to this year hadn't pitched higher than Double-A...
…and even then that was just nine starts. The only reason he made the team out of Spring Training was because Devine and Wuertz weren’t ready and they needed another arm in the bullpen. He had a few moments but overall he pitched about as you’d expect for someone in the position he was. Now he’s had a completely predictable injury and needs more time in the Minors.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I see
I’m curious because I haven’t heard much about it but what in your opinion and whoever else reads this, will be done about Cramer? He seemed pretty legit and could probably work in ST on keeping the homerun count down. I know we have a lot of younger guys waiting in AAA but I was pretty impressed bu what he was able to do in the few starts he had.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
At this point I don't see Cramer as a 5th spot guy, but it's possible he could impress enough in the spring to be in the mix
I wouldn’t say it’s very likely, though. The home runs would be an issue but one of the good things I saw in him was that he really seemed in command of things out there. At the least, he wasn’t showing any outward nervousness over finally being there and I think he threw like he believed he belonged. Stuff seemed all right, same with his command. I said it earlier but right now it’s in a “this is a great story” stage.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Thank you..
One last question. Say we don’t pick up a pitcher and keep the core four. Who internally, has your vote to take the spot?
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Tough to say
I’d like to see Mazzaro go out there in the spring and earn it. Right now unless they add a pitcher from outside the organization I don’t like the chances of most of the rest to stick as a 5th starter. Not Mortensen, either.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
He's pretty similar to an older, not injured Greg Smith
Fine to have around as depth, but not really someone you want in one of the top 5 spots on your depth chart.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Whatever it once was, he's clearly off it given that he didn't pitch at all this year
I guess the hope is that he’ll be ready for next spring, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Oh, but didn't you hear he and Devine are feeling great?
They’ll both be back and pitching at 100% come March.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Are they in the best shape of their lives?
Are their arms cleaned out and ready to go?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree on Ross. I'd be perfectly fine with him as 5th starter at least to start the season..
He had a 3.91 Luck-Free ERA in Oakland and a 3.34 MLE ERA in Sacramento. The guy can pitch. He just couldn’t stay healthy.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions
The thing that pissed me off about Ross is they wasted him as a reliever
The dude’s arm is a ticking time bomb. They REALLY need to get what they can out of him before it explodes.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Ya but it was his first exposure to the majors. I can see that.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I sorta took that as a "this bomb's ready to explode, let's get some value out of him".
Although the following moves don’t really agree with that.
But maybe the A’s thought “this guy is gonna need TJS in a year. Let’s try and establish some value for him and trade him”. Rushing him, either to the pen or the rotation seems necessary to me.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Either way he's going to have more value as a starter, though.
Whether it’s as a trade chip or in the sense of “get as many innings from him until he breaks”
Pam liked my old sig better.
True,
but it’s easier for him to succeed as a RP. I thought the A’s were trying to do an Andrew Bailey 2.0 kinda deal.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Maybe they thought it would keep him healthier but then they turned
him back into a starter at AAA and he got hurt. Not sure what they’re thinking now.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure they're thinking now.
Hopefully they can get some value out of the guy. And hopefully he earns some money before imploding, I like him a lot.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Help me with this
I buy the fact that mazzaro isn’t very good and the bullpen wasn’t either. But the A’s gave up the fewest runs in the NL. That would suggest the pitching’s pretty good, esp. the top 4 spots in the rotation.
You’ve said this before, but I didn’t follow you. Are you basically saying that the peripheral stats indicate the top 4 were as lucky as they were good? Or is there more to it?
That being said, I think I see the top 2 needs the same way as you, but maybe in a different order – one power bat, preferably at 3B or corner outfield, one good back of the rotation pitcher, and, if we can have a third wish, another good bullpen arm?
"I feel like my opinions and judgments are just too corrupted by the numbers." - thejd44
by eastcoasta'sfan on Oct 5, 2010 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions
NL = AL
"I feel like my opinions and judgments are just too corrupted by the numbers." - thejd44
by eastcoasta'sfan on Oct 5, 2010 4:16 AM PDT up reply actions
The ERAs of the pitching staff are low because of the great defense that was played behind them
By FIP the team was 20th in the majors, by xFIP 13th.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by tRA 16th
But about 4 Runs above average.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
My Wish list
I think Luke Scott is one of the Bat that Beane should be looking for. Scott will be an upgrade over Cust as DH and he also can play a pretty decent LF in case Carter absolutely sucks in there, and he should be available for the right package,… A Platoon DH/LF of Scott and Carter would be terrific in my opinion.
If you add another good OF(maybe Orodñez and please dont say Crawford, Werh or Choo because is not going to happen) and maybe Mark Reynolds at 3B you will have a Good Line Up and a Still a good defense everyday
Yes to Scott, no to DHing him. Scott plays COF
Maybe to Ordoñez, no no no to Reynolds.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Magglio could be an interesting way to get that impact bat we want without the commitment (years or $)
I mean even on a down year last year he was better than anything else we’ve had in the OF, and his defense isn’t a big liability or anything.
Frankly, he’s our most sensible option, and has been relatively healthy for his career.
I say Magglio @ around $8-10M/year for 2 years with a team option for a 3rd.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 4, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I'm definitely on board that train
He’s also not going to cost a draft pick, because Detroit’s not offering him arbitration. That’s not nearly so important with the Tigers winning yesterday, but a million here and a million there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I like this
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I feel like I've heard this before.
“I mean even on a down year last year he was better than anything else we’ve had.”
“Frankly, he’s our most sensible option, and has been relatively healthy for his career.”
Lots and lots of times. Recently. And I’m still drawn to it like a deer into headlights.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I'd rather have Crawford for $20 million than Ordonez for $8 million but I think Beane is
more likely to be thinking “We can’t afford to risk $20 million on one player. Let’s split it up among Ordonez AND Kotsay AND Kendall AND Loiza AND Rhodes AND Redman. That would be the more prudent course.”
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Why would anyone be thinking like that?
It’s pretty unfair to cherry pick some bad signings from the last 10 years and suggest that the GM is purposely making them rather than signing a big free agent.
To dedicate $20M per year to Crawford and say that it is a good idea is basically asking management to guarantee that for the life of the deal they will never make a mistake on a player. Just because the team has wasted some money on players before doesn’t mean they would be better off burying all their money in one player and having no money to spend on anyone else.
This logic is just all kinds of flawed.
The reason why the team is willing to spend on cheap FAs is not the money, it's the years
Right now, the A’s know that they’re not crazily far from a playoff berth. Investing in a 2011 free agent thus has fairly decent effect on the team’s chances of reaching the postseason and hitting a money-pot to pay for that free agent.
But in 2015? Who knows? Odds are the team won’t be very good, and thus that the money they’re spending on Crawford will be doing very little work for the team’s postseason chances.
There are good hard economic reasons why small-payroll teams should avoid long-term contracts unless they are very team-favorable.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
However, if you frontloaded the Crawford contract,
He’d still have positive trade value near the end of the deal, when the team was out of contention. Then you trade him for prospects.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 6, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Wawawiwa. Very nice. I like.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, but then you likely don't make the playoffs in any of those years...
Frontloading contracts makes sense when you’re not competitive or when you’re sufficiently dominant that you can afford to make upgrades aimed years down the line rather than at the immediate present.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think in this instance the idea is that we overpay for Crawford now when we actually have a lot of freed-up money...
and then we underpay for him later when we don’t. It potentially keeps the window of contention open longer, actually.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
yes
And, it’s a way that the A’s can actually exert some leverage that other teams can’t.
For example, the Yankees won’t give him $25M in 2011, because that’s also contributing to a huge luxury tax for them. The Yanks would rather the deal either be slightly backloaded or even money for each year of the deal.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 6, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Yet these are the kind of risks that we must take
Not $20M for one player over 5 years.
Sometimes these work (Frank Thomas) and sometimes they don’t (countless others).
Frankly, he’s a helluva lot more reliable than most of the other on the cheap type guys that we’ve signed lately. His production has been there year in year out and he’s not 90 years old yet.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 7, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Platooning Chris Carter is a really terrible idea for multiple reasons
He wouldn’t play every day, the team would get very little info on his defensive development or lack thereof, his development against righthanders would be stunted, and the A’s would be burning off his service time with reckless abandon.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm not talking about a RH / LH Platoon...
I’m talking about move Carter and Scott between DH and LF, especially if Carter shows he can’t handle LF duties everyday, but both will be in the Line up everyday thats for sure…
Oh
OK.
Why on earth would you do that instead of putting Luke Scott, who doesn’t suck, in the outfield and Chris Carter, who sucks, as the DH?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Or even Cust at DH and Scott in LF/RF
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I would do that in a second, believe me...
But I heard the “Too young to DH” story too many times… So let Carter sucks for a few weeks, (I’m 90% sure he will) and then let Scott play the rest of the season…
All this is based on Carter’s development, if (HUGE IF HERE) becomes a serviceable OF, no problem, if not I would prefer Scott in LF than Cust…
I’m just thinking in a affordable DH who can actually play some defense (we all know that Cust can’t), and that’s why Scott is my choice
All true, and yet if it would win the AL West in 2011 I'd be in favor of platooning him.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
But if it would screw with Carter's development I'm not in favor...
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I would. Flags fly forever.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I know right, just ask the Prussians.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
If you can find one
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions
If you can I bet theyre flying their flag
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Technically, Prussia was
still a freistaat under the Weimar Republic. Which means it still existed at least to 1932 and arguably till 1945.
Probably not too hard to find people born in Prussia.
![]()
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I love their flag
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Lasst die alten Fahnen weh'n!

Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yes. This is the tricky part.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure, but there's no reason to believe that that would be the case
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It would depend on the alternatives. I guess you could say that Carter's replacement level vs lefties
but I don’t think I’d agree at this point. Maybe I’d agree next year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Luke Scott? Really? Luke Scott? An upgrade over Cust? Luke Scott?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes Really...
Cust OPS last 3 years .851 ; .773 ; .834
Scott OPS last 3 years . 807 ; .828 ; .902
Cust OPS vs LHP .821 ; .621 ; .638
Scott OPS vs LHP .702 ; .837 ; .787
Cust wOBA .371 ; .342 ; .371
Scott wOBA . 343 ; .355 ; .387
Cust UZR/150 -22.4 (1728 Innings in the OF)
Scott UZR/150 +4.9 (2654 innings in the OF)
Scott has been better hitter than Cust the last 2 years, is a good defender and K’s 80 times less in a season… So yes I think he would be an upgrade over Cust
That's tellin' me!
Career wRC+
Cust 127
Scott 124
CHONE BRAA projection on Aug 28
Cust +20
Scott +13
I guess I’d take Luke Scott as a LF until Carter’s ready.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Scott would make sense but not as a DH
Scott’s an improvement over any corner outfielder we have, but not Jack Cust at DH.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Not hating on Cust but...
I just don’t see him finding ABs with Carter on the same team. Cust will command a $5 million arbitration which I don’t think Beane wants to pay and if he is relaesed like last year he will jump on a offer from another team before coming back to oakland. Crisp/Sweeney are good bets to be back next year with Jackson and Davis as back ups. Beane will trade mazzaro plus someone else to pick up a big bat . Crawford and Werth will be to expensive for the A’s.
I have a fear that you are right
I really enjoy Cust and I would love for him to be around when we get better but I think that you’re 100% correct.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Nobody wants Cust
he could have gone to any AL team in the Spring but the only offer was the A’s at a reduced price. He has lost his power, and now only a guy who walks and hits singles if no one is in scoring position, then he strikes out. Only a team as bad as the A’s like Cust.
Yes, he could have gone to any AL team in the Spring when the A's DFA'd him as rosters were being finalized
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It's the proverbial 'elephant in the room' that Cust sycophants don't want to... can't... refute...
…nobody else wanted him. The “rosters were being finalized” defense is weak. If he were truly so valuable as many here have been conned to think, somebody somewhere would have found a place to fit him in at such a good price, roster finalization be damned.
Note: This has nothing to do with strikeouts, so don’t even bother going there.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Best hitter on the team in 2010
Barton was second to Cust.
He isn’t the problem. Sweeney batting third for the first half of the season is part of the problem. Sycophants? He was the best hitter on the A’s this season.
The DFA didn’t make sense to me and there are several teams in the AL that would have been improved by having Cust as their DH and they should have picked him up.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Best hitting stats on the team, maybe, not best hitter.
Every now and then there comes along a player that defies what the stats say. He either has horrible numbers yet is valuable anyway, or visa-versa, great numbers and little to no value. The exception to the rule, in other words. I see Cust as one of these rare players. Great numbers… great EMPTY numbers. Little to no value resulting from his great numbers.
If there is such a thing as relying on stats too much, Cust is it, IMO. This is also why, I believe, there was literally no interest when he was available earlier this year. Even if we believe the ridiculous notion that ALL GMs are idiots, surely one of them (other than Beane) would have seen a great opportunity and grabbed it.
Yes, I know I’m in the minority on this one.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
by UncleLeo on Oct 5, 2010 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Before this turns into the standard Cust debate n' hate each other affair,
can you explain what empty numbers mean? Seriously, I’m interested. I don’t get how getting on base over 40% of the time or slugging for a decent percentage could not be good.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
The best definition of an empty number I can think of is "Ryan Sweeney, .300 hitter"
Pam liked my old sig better.
that is batting average
but, while of course it is not perfect, an OPS+ of 128 would indicate a lot more than “Ryan Sweeney, .300 hitter” does.
Yes, Batting average and RBIs are empty measures of a player’s ability as a hitter. But I don’t think that is what uncleleo was saying.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Eh,
empty is par for the course with BA. With wOBA, OPS or whatever stat you want to use to judge Cust’s offense, the numbers are not empty.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
empty numbers?
I am not trying to be mean here, but, has Joe Morgan spiked your cool aid?
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
QOTM!
Yeoouch….Ken Tremendous welcome back!
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Just play for the name in front of the uniform.." - Dallas Braden
"Oakland is the emotional choice, and could still work, but San Jose really is the best choice." - UncleLeo
by ST on Oct 5, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Empty numbers?
That’s simply not true. Sweeney has empty numbers, because batting average isn’t a complete picture of offensive production. His wOBA is pretty low compared to his high batting average. Cust? He’s the opposite. Hell, he has heavy numbers—_more_ production than his low usual batting average would indicate.
Empty numbers?
That’s a tough one to quantify or qualify. I think it’s just a perception, perhaps. I don’t know if this is what you’re getting at but you feel as though some batters [Cust being one] put up ‘empty when their actual production occurs on days that are largely meaningless [even though the batter’s cummulative stats show them as being good hitters]. For example having a multi HR game in the midst of a lopsided game or a few oh-for-four days in a row followed by a three-for-five game (where the oh-for four games were where men were left on base in key situations). Is that kind of what you’re getting at?
Back in 2005 when fANs here would write that Beane should have signed Tejada and let Chavez go instead, I attempted to find out which hitter was more consistent — in other words, which player had ‘emptier’ numbers than the other. It depends on what criteria you’d want to use, I’m sure, but the gut feeling I had (and continue to have) on certain players is sometimes many times wrong. I’m not telling you that you’re wrong; I happen to be more on your side with this one. But you could be wrong. However, you have 30 actual and bonfide MLB general managers that seem to be leaning your direction.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 5, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes.
Your first paragraph especially sums up my thoughts and conclusions very nicely.
It is hard to qualify and quantify. I don’t have the luxury of numbers to fall back on, yet at the same time I don’t want to be perceived as one of those “I WATCH THE GAME” people, because that’s not what I’m saying, either. For purely debate purposes I am at a distinct disadvantage precisely because I do not have the generally accepted “standard” of statistics to back up my argument.
It may be more perception, I realize that. But stats aren’t the only evidence, and other conflicting evidence says a lot, also.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
The thing with Cust is he's supposed to be your home run guy, not a singles hitter
This came up a few days ago and someone asked me if all OBP are created equal (or something to that effect) and I said no, I don’t believe they are.
You’re going to have people whose OBP are loaded with walks and singles (or mostly singles like Ichiro, but he brings more to the table than just that) and you’re going to have others who get a high number of walks and a lot of XBH as part of their hits. That does more to help the team overall than a bunch of singles because it means fewer people behind you have to also reach base in some way to bring a run around.
I prefer to look at it as not just OBP but OBP and SLG as well, or OPS overall. In that case Cust was still the best on the team (.395/.438/.834) but when I compared that to the other teams in the league it’s not that impressive.
That’s not Cust’s fault in the sense that it’s more of a team problem the A’s have offensively right now, but like I checked the other day his percentage of XBH has dropped from around 45% a couple years ago to 33% now and while he’s walking a bit less and striking out a bit less as well, his HR rate is way down (from around one every 15 AB to about every 26 AB now).
Cust has been the classic TTO player, but not lately. I think he has a little more value to us when he’s hitting 25-30 homers even if that means, say, a couple dozen more strikeouts. He also showed he can reach base and/or slug even better while hitting those homers (07-08).
Last of the Ninth - Photography
yes I want the strickouts + HR Cust back,
But is he lost forever?
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Good points.
The “best on our team” phrase always struck me as falling into the “damning with faint praise” category. He may be one of the best on our team at the moment, and as such you don’t cast him loose… which makes his DFA status even more puzzling, if you get right down to it and everybody else is right… but neither do you ignore other possible replacements if they can provide more in terms of putting bigger numbers in the team’s win column.
Balancing said team’s other considerations, i.e. financial, etc., of course. As a fan I’d love for it to be purely baseball-related, but I know it’s not.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
It's kind of a "Best on our team BUT..." thing for some
Not for others.
I just like him more when he’s hitting bombs. The way this team is built right now, another singles hitter who gets on base a lot is nice but not so good when others suck at doing something with it. A few more homers (imagine him back to 25 or so with Carter in there too, or Carter doing it with another big bat nearby) would be pretty nice.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
You realize that you have not presented any kind of evidence at all on this thread, right?
Baseless speculation might “say a lot” in the literal sense of that phrase, but it’s horrible evidence.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
What this Cust sycophant can't understand is how Chavez was a better choice?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:30 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
That doesn't make sense, either.
As “value-less” as I think Cust is, I do think he would have been a better choice… baseball-wise… than Chavez. My best guess is that Chavez had other non-baseball considerations involved. Maybe they had to let him play (read: be on the roster) since he was allegedly healed, just so he could get hurt again just to get him out of the way, then move on again with the rest of the season. For contract reasons and/or baseball injury rule reasons. Chavez’ eventual physical crash-and-burn was a fait accompli. Give it time, it’ll happen. Just a theory.
If so, this does not speak well of Cust’s value, either. Surely, there had to be some fringe guy on the roster that could have been DFA’d or sent down for a month while Chavez’ back did it’s thing again. Why Cust? Why not some borderline guy? Cust could play LF/RF in a pinch for a month or so.
I suspect that even Beane knows Cust is not as valuable as many here believe. Kind of a “Cust really isn’t that good, but so many of my other player are even worse.” kind of thing. Hence, this is why he was chosen. If he comes back with his tail between his legs for less money, GREAT!!! If somebody else grabs him? Meh. Ok, whatever.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
If Beane "knows" that, he's wrong.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Cust should have been the regular LFer instead of patterson
Until Chavez broke.
Tail between his legs for less money? He already had a guaranteed contract. Money was not the issue there.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Agree on both points.
My bad on the “less money” part. I was thinking of something else.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
cool
I am going to bow out of this conversation before I say anything that I might later regret. We are all A’s fans here, right? Ok.
Cust was the 4th best DH in baseball this season. All but three teams would have been better where he their DH and they made a mistake in not claiming him in addition to Beane being sneaky about how he DFAed Cust. Bottom line.
The hate on him strikes me because he does a lot of things that offend the sensibilities of casual fans. He is slow, he Ks, he can’t play defense for a damn. I think that, sniff, there is a little Cust in all of us. No matter what we do well, really really well, there are those who will bag on us for what we don’t do. When all credible evidence suggests how good our performance is the critics will slam the evidence.
This, my A’s fan friends, is why I ran Cross Country and Track in university instead of trying to play baseball. In running, either you ran a given time or you didn’t. There is no coaches son on the roster unfairly eating up at bats. There is no invention of subjective evaluations that devalue your worth. a 30:00 10K will never be “empty numbers”. Cust has as special place in my heart because he is undervalued for the same invalid flawed critiques.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 9 recs
Rec'd
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
smile
A moment to brag, I still run 50 to 60 miles a week even though I no longer compete.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Good for you, that's awesome.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I love running
I truly do.
My favorite thing in the world to do.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I am extremely jealous of this
My wife is that way too.
If I could make one (plausible) change in my life it would be loving running
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I've been trying to lose weight or about the past 6 months
I’m doing ok with anaerobic exercise and playing sports a couple days a week, but I just wish I could motivate myself to actually run more.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate running. That's why I need to use the cross-training machine.
With I-Pod and TV to alleviate boredom.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I thought about running
But I can cover the same distance much faster if I drive, plus I don’t work up a sweat. Although the pounds don’t seem to be dropping…
Exercise takes a long time to start working visibly.
Stick with it.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 11, 2010 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
That's nothing
I drive at least a couple hundred miles a week.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Why would talking about your own insanity be considered "bragging"?
I don’t understand distance running. It just seems like masochism to me.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Seriously
My roommate does triathlons. I just can’t understand putting yourself through so much pain that your body literally cannot function in the end…
Reminds me of this lady:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTn1v5TGK_w
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
running
it is not for everybody, that is for sure.
Generally the first 20 to 30 minutes of a run suck as one’s body is working out the kinks, getting loose, and sending messages to your brain that state, “what the hell! We were just a heck of a lot more comfortable than this!”
And I think that most people do not get in enough shape to get past those uncomfortable initial minutes and actually enjoy the run. I also think that we were made to run. There is theory in an evolutionary sense that we evolved to bipedalism because long distance running (and the increased lung capacity that goes with being upright) combined with brain capacity made us better hunters. We would just slowly chase deer, caribou, or whatever equivalent game until until it got tired, 3 to 4 hours say, and the take advantage of its tired state. I do think that there is something that is satisfying in a primal fashion derived from running. Also, it is extremely emotionally validating for a lot of reasons.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
It's just alien to me
The only experiences I have ever had with distance running were a haze of compelled torture and horrible agony. “Running days” in PE were some of the most physically painful experiences of my entire life.
I literally cannot fathom or understand where you’re coming from. It’s so far from my own experience that it’s like you’re talking to me in Chinese.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I got talked into trying cross country in high school once
I quit after about four days of practice.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The same happened to me with high school.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think that your experiece is quit common
Individuals introduced to running in PE class get it in its worst form. Coerced into doing it without the proper preparation. Being made to run harder than they were ready for. Likely being teased by the more athletically inclined. I can see why people with this introduction don’t like running. I think such introductions give individuals the least chance to enjoy running.
Then again, it is not for everybody.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 6, 2010 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about psychological suffering
I was gonna get that no matter what we were doing in PE.
I’m just talking about actual pain.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Rec'd
and used as one my my sig lines!
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Just play for the name in front of the uniform.." - Dallas Braden
"Oakland is the emotional choice, and could still work, but San Jose really is the best choice." - UncleLeo
by ST on Oct 5, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
"There's a little Jack Cust in all of us."
T-shirt. Now.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
make it happen
For some reason, I am thinking of an alien style birth with jack cust popping out of somebody’s chest and hitting a dinger.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 6, 2010 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking something more maudlin and epic.
Like a hero shot of Cust with the caption, in relatively small Courier, “There’s a little Jack Cust in all of us.”
Maybe the explanation printed on the back.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
whats the explaination
what is the explaination that you had in mind?
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 7, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
my quote?
That would be lengthy…
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 7, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
It's apparent no one wanted him,
but I don’t see what that has to do with how good he actually is.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
This defies logic.
Why wouldn’t somebody want him if he’s that good and can help them win? It’s not like he would have been expensive. It’s not like he had Bonds-like baggage. Theoretically, signing him should have been a no-brainer for several teams… if he’s really that good or that valuable.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Yes it defies logic. The crowds don't always have the most wisdom.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, they don't.
But, not even one GM? Not one?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Not one. Just like not one other GM wanted Jose Bautista. Just like
not one other GM claimed Nelson Cruz off waivers. Just like not one other GM wanted Mike Piazza in the first 61 rounds.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
David Ortiz
He was waved before, wasn’t he?
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Waived by Minnesota and traded by Seattle for Dave Hollins
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Many of these examples actually reinforce my point...
…what other teams could have had… if he’s really as good as advertised and the A’s were clearly making a huge mistake.
As far as Piazza… I don’t think anybody honestly saw that coming.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
I don't get how the massive oversights on other players by all GMs
proves that players overlooked by all GMs are necessarily worse players than their replacements.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Who is more likely to be the 'crowd':
fans on a message board or the front office people responsible for making tough baseball decisions — decisions with real money, performance outcomes, and professional reputation on the line?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 5, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, that's always a valid argument. We're not doing the job that like 30 people in the world are doing.
Pam liked my old sig better.
And if you're talking about other GMs
who could sign Cust as a DH, it’s really only 13 people.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
30 people in the world, many of whom got the jobs due to connections or tradition or some other dumb thing.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
This.
To suggest that AN (or any other fan group) is any less prone to “group think” is absurd.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
by UncleLeo on Oct 5, 2010 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
THe crowd he was referring to are the other GMs in the AL
The white sox could have won the division if they signed Cust.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I know to what crowd he was referring.
I was pointing out that “the crowd” here at AN is not any less susceptible to the same thing.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
it makes a lot more sense
Than does the empty numbers logic.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I tend to believe RISP is somewhat random, but...
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
Bases Empty .306 .420 .508 .928 (183 AB)
Runners On .235 .369 .361 .730 (166 AB)
RISP .234 .375 .318 .693
RISP w/2 Outs .250 .379 .375 .754
Bases Loaded .222 .385 .333 .718
(2010 numbers)
I think this is pretty much why there are fans that don’t like him. He hits so poorly with runners in scoring position and his power seems to disappear.
His bases empty numbers are amazing.
I know “clutchness” is kind of a joke, but WTF. Why are these splits so different? I know many of us have known people who were genius students when it came to homework, but when it came time for a test, got nervous and did poorly. I think Jack Cust is a bad tester and for whatever reason isn’t comfortable hitting in situations where he is being depended on to bring runners home.
I think that is a valid reason for not liking a player. It may not be the most logical, but it is understandable. It is frustrating to see a guy come up and fail repeatedly with runners in scoring position.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
The hubris in this post is actually funny
Let us sit back and take wondrous notice of it, before we disprove it through the brilliant tactic of, you know, actually looking at his career numbers.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Flagged for the use of large vocabulary words
I'm here to talk about Don
by OptimistPrime on Oct 5, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Translation: Oh, that is pretty bad, and I can't refute it. It is what it is. So, I'll mock and use ridicule as a debate tactic to portary myself as right and knowledgable.
Seriously, though this portion of the thread has been all over the place in Cust’s defense… career numbers, 2010-only numbers, what GMs should have known in ST… and so on, so this info is relevant.
Instead of mocking, if you have career numbers to refute, please feel free to provide them.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
by UncleLeo on Oct 5, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Last year he had an .881 OPS with RISP.
.834 with RISP/2 out
TWO THOUSAND with the bases loaded.
Did he forget how to be clutch this year?
Pam liked my old sig better.
he could have gotten worse
Confidence is a funny thing. Chuck Knoblauch didn’t always have a problem throwing the ball accurately. Rick Ankiel wasn’t always wild.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Generally it's a bad idea to imply that someone doesn't understand or know how to use statistics,
when this thread clearly demonstrated your own lack of understanding with regards to such.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Please note...
…that my stance throughout this conversation has been nothing of the sort.
What I said (paraphrasing)…
I know that stats are usually good and accurate, but there are the occasional instances where they can be faulty and/or misleading, and this is one of them.
What many who disagree with me have chosen to hear…
I know that stats are usually good and accurate, but there are the occasional instances where they can be faulty and/or misleading, and this is one of them.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
You've done nothing whatsoever to actually support the notion
that this is one of those instances.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Please re-read
He never stated that he could support his notion — that Cust’s numbers, in this instance, don’t measure his true worth to the batting order properly. He used qualifiers and stated his opinion on the matter above and he explained himself. Then he mentioned something that Cust-backers have yet to overcome in their objections: the fact that Cust was not claimed by another GM when he was DFA’d. It is the inconvienient truth that Cust-backers do not have [in my opinion] a reasonable counter-argument for.
You got a reasonable counter-argument for the other GMs’ lack of interest in Cust when he was DFA’d?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course you don't think any counterargument is reasonable.
On this board, you’re constantly espousing how the rest of us don’t know shit compared to GMs or other “experts”. Since you seem to believe that religiously, there’s no point in continuing this discussion because the counterargument (that some GMs are stupid and don’t always make moves that maximize wins) will never convince you otherwise.
Nevermind the utter absurdity of preferring Mark Kotsay, DH, as opposed to Jack Cust, DH, but hey, people choose to believe what they want to believe.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Hes a libertarian...
there really isn’t anything more you can say.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions
What does that fact have to do with any of this?
Nothing! There, I’ve answered the question for you.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Now that you put it more clearly below...
…I guess I’ll backtrack on this. I had just assumed that it was some kind of dismissal of people who prefer individual liberty — as though they [libertarians] must be inherently intellectually challenged because of their supposed simplitic belief system. You may actually hold that opinion but I am sure glad that you had clarified what you meant to write because I thought it was pretty ugly, left how it was, considering what I had assumed.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Aside from the blatant flouting
of the guidelines against bringing up politics on AN, that’s just a crappy argument, DFA.
First of all, it’s purely ad hominem. Second, it’s completely irrelevant ad hominem
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It is neither. Its a description of the underlying philosophy of an argument, not an attack.
Libertarians believe almost religiously in the free market which is what LCJ believes. If you look at LCJ’s arguments they go like this
Event X happened
Market let event X happen
The Market is filled with unconstrained rational actors
Event X must have been optimal because if it was suboptimal the rational actors in the Market wouldn’t have let it happen.
Therefore anyone who criticizes the actions of the rational actors must be wrong
Its not a political argument. Nor is it an attack. Since when is being called a libertarian something that would make people hostile to LCJ’s argument? Its an explanation why there is an almost religious belief that if a GM made a decision that it was the right decision.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah seriously.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
+1
That’s totally fair. Seriously, it is.
Its an explanation why there is an almost religious belief that if a GM made a decision that it was the right decision.
Equally religious — even moreso, I think — is the beliefs of others who pretend to know every variable, every factor that goes into making a decision at a baseball executive level. And more often than not, these criticisms of GMs and the beiefs that are held by thiose that do the criticizing are done with the benefit of hindsight.
I tend to think that if those who did the criticizing could demonstrate their consistent predictions [say with written predictions archived on a blog that would have made a significant difference for a team had the ideas been adopted], you’d have a seat with the big boys.
Therefore anyone who criticizes the actions of the rational actors must be wrong
I don’t go this far with it unless I read from someone that a GM is particularly dumb or incompetent. It irks me as much as when people use the word ‘we’ when suggestion something like: “We should sign Crawford to a $150M contract.” Get the F#$%ing mouse of the pocket already, is what is going through my mind.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions
As to this...
Equally religious — even moreso, I think — is the beliefs of others who pretend to know every variable, every factor that goes into making a decision at a baseball executive level.
When has anyone ever said they have the exact same information as a baseball executive? Most of the people you complain about playing GM (me PT NSJ lensecrafters etc) are both highly knowledgeable and more than willing to take into account new information and acknowledge when they don’t have all the information that relates to the constraints of moves
Also there are many MLB GMs that are incompetent as GMs.
As for the We thing, its irrational and I suggest you just GTF over it.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I still think it's absurdly arrogant
for you to pronounce “many MLB GMs … incompetent as GMs”.
You can only say this because you presume to define what counts as success for a GM. Your definition is a narrow one, centered on your game of deciding what trades to make, picking and choosing according to your whim what to credit or blame the GM for and what to dismiss as luck or circumstance.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Oct 7, 2010 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No Im deciding that on that, Im deciding on 2 or three factors
A) they are bad at my game
B) their teams don’t win baseball games
c) they get fired
Dave Littlefield was a GM for years. Im just saying.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Jim Bowden, Mike Flanagan, Omar Minaya, Allard Baird, etc
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Iglew and LCJ assume that I said I would be better than them
I didn’t. I did say that many GMs are/were incompetent, which is true.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
When has anyone ever said they have the exact same information as a baseball executive?
As far as I know, none of you arm-chair GMs have actually come out and wrote that…yet.
Most of the people you complain about playing GM (me PT NSJ lensecrafters etc) are both highly knowledgeable and more than willing to take into account new information and acknowledge when they don’t have all the information that relates to the constraints of moves
If you understood that my particular issues with this are that:
1) you aren’t as knowledgable as you believe yourself to be because you don’t know all the information
2) though you come across as you do know and that you’re much better at the GMing thing than some of the GMs are
3) and that you frequently use the benefit of hindsight to attempt to argue your points about why you happen to think you’re better than some GMs
you might begin to understand why your style irritates me.
As for the We thing, its irrational and I suggest you just GTF over it.
It’s first person plural and not logical; maybe it is religion for your soul and I touched a nerve when I wrote that. And, you can take your suggestion and stick it in the same pocket with your mouse.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 2:51 AM PDT up reply actions
-
As far as I know, none of you arm-chair GMs have actually come out and wrote that…yet.
But you just choose to tar them with that brush anyway?
you aren’t as knowledgable as you believe yourself to be because you don’t know all the information
What information does the GM of the Orioles have that convinced him Jack Cust sucked? Everyone has access to the same numbers.
though you come across as you do know and that you’re much better at the GMing thing than some of the GMs are
AthleticsNation would build a better team than the Baltimore Orioles have built. And if Lew Wolff let AthleticsNation handle day-to-day affairs, just wrote a blank check and told AN to go wild, AN would build a better team than the Oakland A’s have built.
and that you frequently use the benefit of hindsight to attempt to argue your points about why you happen to think you’re better than some GMs
I’m pretty sure DFA and PT were pro-Cust a long time ago. Most pro-Cust people were. I was not. I took some convincing. It doesn’t make me some kind of simpering limp-wristed fool.
It’s first person plural and not logical
Being a sports fan isn’t logical. Enjoying art isn’t logical. In fact, doing anything isn’t logical, because there is no logical justification for anything. There is a reason Camus argued that the only rational course of action is suicide: the reason is that rationality isn’t the only thing that matters in life.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
You realize that the market deems them to be incompetent because they get fired right?
OH SNAP I JUST USED YOUR ENTIRE WORLD VIEW TO PROVE YOUR POINT WRONG
happy dance sukka
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
So, you're now conceding that markets DO work?
OH SNAP I JUST USED YOUR ENTIRE WORLD VIEW TO PROVE YOUR POINT WRONG
Hardly. If a GM blunders too often and does not get results and outcomes the ownership is demanding, heads roll. The market works just fine, thank you.
happy dance sukka
Is that what you call it when performed with two left feet?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
No Im not.
Your belief is that Markets effectively determine competency.
Fact: GMs get fired on a regular basis. Many 2010 GMs have or will be fired.
Therefore, if Markets determine competency effectively and many GMs are dismissed, then there must be incompetent GMs.
Conclusion: DFA winz
My belief is that markets don’t work properly in most instances. Good GMs are fired; bad GMs are retained. I can believe for separate reasons that many GMs are incompetent. And yes Im on the left which colors my baseball analysis just like you being a free marketier colors yours.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
No!
Your belief is that Markets effectively determine competency.
I never wrote this. My beief is that markets effectively determine preference. But the assumprion that I will accept is that owners want competent GMs and are more likely to fire ones that have not proven themselves competent…competency being in the eyes of the ownership, not fans with an abundance of hubris [though the fans’ reaction does play into the equation].
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
The assumption you subscribe to proves my point.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
What point would that be?
1) that markets don’t work
2) that the GMs that didn’t claim Cust are idiots
3) that you’re much better at GMing than those that actually do it
4) or all of the above.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
my point is none of those
my point is that there are many incompetent GMs
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
3.1)
That you have better foresight than those that do this for a living
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
you say that like doing this for a living qualifies as a credential
the barriers for entry into the market are so high that it keeps the market from working at all. There are a ton of people that would make better GMs than some of the GMs that are currently in place (including some fired GMs).
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Barriers to entry should be no obstacle for someone like yourself.
Aren’t you from Lake Wobegone?
you say that like doing this for a living qualifies as a credential
And you write as though holding the position is meaningless.
the barriers for entry into the market are so high that it keeps the market from working at all
Except when it does eventually shows itself to work, right?
There are a ton of people that would make better GMs than some of the GMs that are currently in place (including some fired GMs).
A ton is a weight measurement. Please quantify that into an actual numebr of people…is it 2000. Are you one of them? Again, perhaps you should be sending some owners around the league your resume and a thorough archive of past comments that details your uncommon foresight and your ability to be better than the GMs you seek to replace.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I cant believe that you are coming at me with this canard
and obtuse Prairie Home Companion references? Really is this all you got?
Watch me destroy your entire argument right now.
The number of women that have ever been a GM of a MLB team:
0.
To say that the market works effectively you must believe that no woman in history would have been superior to the worst male GM of her day.
Markets cannot work efficiently if there are high barriers to entry. This is a basic premise of all classical economic theory that proposes that markets are an efficient way of allocating resources (like labor and who should be a GM) relies on ease of entry and exit to the market which allows for more efficient options to come in and replace failing options. That absolutely does not exist in baseball, especially since A) there are a unbelievably small number of positions compared to the definition of a competitive market B) GM positions can’t just be applied for C) There are racial and sexist pressures that would prevent many candidates from getting the job.
People like Tom Tango, John Sickles, Dewan and Kim Eng are not MLB GMs. You have provided no reason to believe that the 30 people who own baseball teams are any better picking who should be a GM than I am. There are probably thousands of people that would be better GMs than Bill Bavasi or Dave Littlefield
Finally I find it humorous that for someone who is as mad about me supposedly having the ridiculous hubris to think I would be a fantastic GM, you seem to be obsessed with bringing every conversation back how good a GM I would be. If I lucked into a billion dollars and was able to buy the A’s I would make myself the GM because I think it would be the most fun I could have. If I wanted to win I would surely hire someone else (probably on that list above) rather than doing it myself.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
That is a fantastic point about the gender bias; you got me on that one.
Finally I find it humorous that for someone who is as mad about me supposedly having the ridiculous hubris to think I would be a fantastic GM, you seem to be obsessed with bringing every conversation back how good a GM I would be.
It’s always been about you having the hubris to point out what you perceive to be errors — though writing about the errors from a position of authority rather than one of opinion. And then you spinkle it with loaded language, suggesting that some of these people are idiots while doing it, many times, with the benefit of hindsight.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 8, 2010 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions
If firing is evidence that they are competent.
Does that mean it counts as evidence that they are competent that they get hired?
Or for that matter, when they don’t get fired? So Bill Bavasi was competent from 2004 to 2007.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
what it says is that there are sticky gms
and that there is an evaluation process that takes time. Also the costs of firing someone keep incompetent GMs around for longer than they should
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know, but the same thing happened to me in another forum once.
It can be a political label. But not automatically, as you point out.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
By the way, what's the philosophy behind your arguments?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:00 AM PDT up reply actions
can i get back to you on that one? Im having a hard time whittling it down into something concise
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
But you are mischaracterizing my position to its extreme: and my opinion on the matter comes across strongly because I think that there are too many here that belive that GMs are the dumb ones compared to themselves.
As to Kotsay. That is a great question. If I were to guess it is that the Sox like the defensive flexibility of Kotsay combined with his splits against RHPs in 2009. And, really, with Konerko, Quentin, and Jones in the fold, Kotsay was likely the ‘fit’ that they were looking for. Not defending that but suggesting that this was important to the Sox brass.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
...
Kotsay’s “versatility” translated into playing RF a total of 8 times, 6 starts. The rest of the time he was at first base, which is about as laughable as DHing him since he doesn’t even bring an average glove to that position. Oh, and he played there 38 times with 34 starts, about a third of his overall games played.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Good point!
And even the 2009 numbers do not suggest that he should have been all the flexible. So, there is a reasonable case to be made that the Sox GM screwed the pooch when he didn’t attempt to add Cust.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, you're indirectly criticizing me for wearing the GM hat...
With the implication that there’s tons of knowledge I’m not privy to, and thus I shouldn’t go through the exercise to make mock GM decisions on my own, even implying that it’s arrogant for me to do so.
Then, you follow up with a statement like this one immediately above, which I would never make, because I read enough on the topic to know that Kenny Williams is not to blame for eschewing a traditional DH this year – his manager Ozzie Guillen is.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 2:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Well,
With the implication that there’s tons of knowledge I’m not privy to, and thus I shouldn’t go through the exercise to make mock GM decisions on my own, even implying that it’s arrogant for me to do so.
The facts are that there is knowledge that you are not privy to and that there is a level of arrogance associated with ‘playing’ GM. Playing GM is fun, though: going through the exercise of what it must be like and the thought process that goes into MLB decisions. And many of us do this. But it is arrogance to its extreme when GMs are labeled as stupid/incompetent for decisions by fans of the game.
Then, you follow up with a statement like this one immediately above, which I would never make, because I read enough on the topic to know that Kenny Williams is not to blame for eschewing a traditional DH this year – his manager Ozzie Guillen is.
I wrote that a case could be made. Is it hypicritical of me to enter the arm-chair game even though I criticize that game. Sort of…yeah, likely. But I did it in this instance to suggest that you guys might have a valid argument on this “The Sox were stupid to not get Cust” point. And as far as I can tell, Kenny Williams still has final decision-making over Ozzie, true?
Fans simply don’t know why this or that in many cases. For all any of us know, maybe scouts saw something about Cust during April that they did not like. Maybe they saw low bat speed. Who knows? All we do know is that Cust was DFA’d and not claimed and we wont know why he wasn’t claimed until someone asks the question of the GMs who didn’t snatch him up.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Right, but here's a few areas where you need to separate me from other people you're lumping me in with:
*I never criticized the team for DFA’ing Cust. I totally understand that decision and the logic that went into it. I could write a 1,000 word post similar to my current Cust/Ellis one explaining it.
*I don’t think Kenny Williams is an idiot for ceding to Ozzie Guillen on the decision to eschew a traditional DH this season. Ozzie wanted more bench flexibility, Williams respected and supported the decision of the field manager, while also saving a few million in the process (which would’ve gone toward a traditional DH). I understand as well as anybody that baseball isn’t just a simple WAR calculation and there are personal relationships and that Kenny and Ozzie have to work at maintaining that, and Kenny benefits from trusting the opinions of his on-field personnel.
*In my early 20s, I probably would’ve called a few GMs idiots. I certainly wouldn’t now. To my knowledge I haven’t called a GM stupid in a long time. I think there are a few front offices that I would be a benefit to, but their GMs aren’t idiots or stupid. Those front offices are perhaps well represented in some important skill sets and very under-represented in others.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 3:52 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Going OT a bit, but...
…do you think it could be argued that Guillen’s non-DH ‘experiment’ cost them the post-season?
They were in serious contention at a very late point before they fell apart.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Honestly,
I do not recall lumping you in with anybody.
And even if I did somehow [and I don’t think I did], what does it matter? I’m just another opiniated a-hole whose opinion doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Your unerring belief in authority figures is mystifying.
As discussed before, you approach these questions with a libertarian perspective, which means you’d never in a million years trust an authority figure in government, but you trust implicitly any authority figure placed in that position by the market. There is no way, in your line of reasoning, that a person could ever be placed in a position of market authority except by the utmost competence. This is not true, and has never been true, of any market.
The facts are that there is knowledge that you are not privy to
What knowledge makes the sale of Babe Ruth to the Yankees a good idea? Or has enough time passed that we can say that was stupid and that the rational market actors were wrong?
Fans simply don’t know why this or that in many cases. For all any of us know, maybe scouts saw something about Cust during April that they did not like.
Then the GMs were wrong to put so much stock in scouting reports! Numbers. Don’t. Lie.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
When I read LCJ's objections here,
I don’t see an “unerring belief in authority figures”, I see a respect for that which is not known, that there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in our philosophy.
This is the part where I am in accord with Joe. Is it libertarian? I’m not a libertarian, though I once was.
I don’t recognize the libertarianism I know in any of the caricatures of it I’ve seen written here (a religious belief in the inerrancy of the market? really??). Perhaps you don’t mean the word the same as I did 20 years ago.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Oct 7, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Read Tom Frank's book One Market Under God
if you want to understand why it is that the religious metaphor for libertarianism makes sense.
Maybe the philosophy was different before it started getting massive funding from self-dealing rich guys, but it’s not so anymore.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
To me, a libertarian is not the
same thing as a “free-market conservative” a la Steve Forbes.
But maybe I’m still living in the 1980s. I dropped my Cato subscription precisely because those guys had taken over the group.
I just didn’t realize they had taken over the label “libertarian” as well.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Oct 7, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Believe it
and read that book, anyway. Tom Frank is awesome.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
He's the "what's the matter with Kansas" guy, right?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yep
His new book is also highly recommended. WTMWK might actually be the weakest of the three.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
How political are they?
I’ve had my fill of political books for about a decade.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
They're definitely in that genre
One Market Under God is the least “traditional politics” of the three, though. It’s more Lippmann/Menckenesque than anything else.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I could maybe handle Menckenesque.
I’ll put that one on my list. Thanks.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I have heard the same thing about Guillen in this case...
…but it only works to a point. Williams is still his boss and is the one ultimately responsible for the roster.
In much the same way it’s a manager’s job to override a tired pitcher who insists he can continue, it’s the GMs job to say ‘no’ when a manager wants something that is unreasonable.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
The decision to value 2009 Kotsay splits was as you put it dumb especially when Cust has a better bat
and Kotsay is nearly useless in the field.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions
how about read NSJ's excellent synopsis of it in his thread
but please lets keep the cust comments on this one (sorry PL)
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
In the OP?
Because I didn’t see anything excellent explaining why Cust went unclaimed. If it is elsewhere, please provide link and I’ll check it out.
For the record, I like Jack Cust. But I also think that it is completely within the boundary to question why no other GM in baseball back in April wanted Cust’s services for a cut-rate cost. So, please, link to a good synopsis that explains this or blockquote it for me. Or, provide your own rational.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
It was covered quite thoroughly by NSJ, whether anyone wants to accept it or not
Last of the Ninth - Photography
A link would be helpful.
This monster is pretty big at this point.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions
This part...
#2 “Nobody wanted him last off-season, so nobody will want him this off-season, either.”
This off-season is drastically different than last off-season. About ten AL teams will have their 2010 DH roll off the books this off-season. Ken Griffey Jr., Jose Guillen, Eric Chavez, Nick Johnson, Pat Burrell – all of that dead money is off the books, and those teams will probably be seeking new, productive DHs. Additionally, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Kubel, and David Ortiz could be free agents this year too, and their teams will either retain them or look for cheaper DH options – like Cust. The point is this: Cust will be more desirable, even with the exact same skillset – now that about 10 AL teams have a DH opening this winter.
…is the only portion I thought was compelling. It is a wait and see because I happen to think the supply of DH-types is going to be just as great with many new names in the mix. We shall see. But apparently the GMs in MLB make some a serious error as to how beneficial Cust could have been on their team. That’s how this is being made to sound.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
GM's make mistakes.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 6, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
So do fans as they pontificate roster moves, trades, signings, and management decisions in general!
Do GMs and scouts and MLB FO personnal make more mistakes than the even the enlightened fans, though?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I know you're not going to like this answer - I do hope that you'll at least weigh it fully though.
The most important thing a GM does is allocate his resources – the millions of dollars his ownership group provides him with to field a team.
It isn’t scouting – he could delegate all of that, as Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti successfully do.
It isn’t communicating with the press – he could delegate that, as Billy Beane has increasingly done with David Forst.
But the allocating of the resources – unless the owner has intervened and demanded a specific signing – that falls squarely on the GM’s back, and it’s the most important thing he does. Period. Because bad decisions can set the franchise back for years, and good ones can lead to a playoff berth, even for a small-market team.
Have I made some bad free agent proclamations or trade proposals? Sure. But my “hit rate” in the past two years – which is the only time worth analyzing, because the previous three years I was reading voraciously and learning the game from a sabermetric standpoint – my hit rate is better than Omar Minaya, Dayton Moore, Ed Wade, and Ned Colletti over their tenures. I might put a 5th man on that list as well.
I think I am a better decision-maker on the allocation of resources than those men are.
I think I would be an asset to the staff of those four men, and maybe those four men only. Probably the other 26 teams in baseball make their decisions just fine, as far as I’m concerned. And by that I mean, if we were to independently analyze the player personnel decisions over the past five years, they would be logical and prudent on the whole.
I acknowledge that there’s this hidden part to the job that none of us ever have done, the less sexy side – making the phone calls, reporting to ownership and asking for permission, having meetings with scouts, interacting with support personnel and trainers, etc. But I think it’s wrong to assume that someone who isn’t currently in a major-league front office couldn’t learn to do those things. Many of us do similar things in our day-to-day lives at work already.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 3:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Why wouldn't I like that answer?
You weren’t on any particular high-horse. You acknoweldge many of the things that I think should be acknowledge including your own limitations with proclamations and trade proposals.
But were your hit rates, if they had be implemented, from trades or from signings. Trades are much more tricky as no fan is privy to the asking price and negotiations surrounding many trade candidate players. Unless, of course, that information is leaked. And even when it is leaked, it’s not always credible.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:40 AM PDT up reply actions
correction:
But were your hit rates, if they had been implemented, from trades or from signings?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd have to go back and look
But I’ll say this about a common theme of my proposals:
*When I propose a trade, blogging fans of both sides usually think they are giving up too much. This probably means the trade is fair, because 90% of the people on these sites are homers.
*When I propose a free-agent signing, most people think “that’s too much money” because I’m actually proposing a realistic price for what it would take to get a player to Oakland, rather than his ideal destination.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 3:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Is a fair trade really what we want?
When I propose a trade, blogging fans of both sides usually think they are giving up too much. This probably means the trade is fair, because 90% of the people on these sites are homers.
I would think we want trades that are lopsided in our favor, but would be possible to execute for a variety of reasons (overvaluing of players, etc., etc.)
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
If you make too many
lopsided trades, people refuse to deal with you. In fact, once a trade is made, you should root for the players you traded to do well.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 7, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Beane has said this many times...
…that too many lopsided trades actually work against you in the long run because nobody wants to trade with you anymore.
I’ve wondered for a long time if this isn’t actually hampering us now… Beane’s reputation and Moneyball being the reason he doesn’t trade nearly as much as he used to.
Granted, he doesn’t have as much to trade with or for, but still…
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
yes
and rec’d.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You DO want lopsided trades
if you can get them. For the most part you can’t, which is why there’s more to be gained from seeking out win-win situations.
Any bozo can come here and say we should trade Ryan Sweeney for Albert Pujols, but it’s meaningless because you can’t do it.
(But if you can somehow make that trade happen, then I’m willing to crown you the best armchair GM on AN, because if you actually have that skill, it easily trumps the skill of determining the better value in less obvious cases.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Come on, man.
You acknoweldge many of the things that I think should be acknowledge including your own limitations with proclamations and trade proposals.
So now, before anybody makes any kind of roster-related comment, before anyone does any armchair GM-ing, no matter how educated and fact-based the idea, they have to preface it by talking about how they’ve never worked a phone with other baseball GMs before? Are you serious?
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
No, but
it’s a valid rebuttal to fanciful claims like this:
AthleticsNation would build a better team than the Baltimore Orioles have built. And if Lew Wolff let AthleticsNation handle day-to-day affairs, just wrote a blank check and told AN to go wild, AN would build a better team than the Oakland A’s have built.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
You really have a lot of respect for the Orioles' organization, huh?
Not to mention an Oakland Athletics organization that has been actively sabotaging itself for a decade.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 9, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
um the Orioles have built a pretty good core and have some great specs
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
To me this is reasonable.
It’s reasonable that some here would be better than some GMs, sure. Not all, however, as has been said and implied in other threads by a select few. That’s where hubris comes in, since that seems to be a theme of this thread.
My only quibble, and it’s a minor one, would be that your ‘hit rate’ has the luxury of never having to be tested. You don’t have the burden of actually having to coordinate multiple competing angles and make it happen. Sometimes I wonder if some GMs suffer from other outside setbacks in the sense that they can’t actually do what they would prefer to do. I hope that makes sense.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Another excellent answer, NSJ.
Your thoughtfulness has been a boon throughout this excellent discussion.
I think one skill for a GM that is rarely given enough appreciation in forums like this is the ability to actually get the deal done. It’s one thing to figure out that turning Ben Grieve, A.J. Hinch, and Angel Berroa into Johnny Damon, Mark Ellis, and Cory Lidle is a good idea; it’s another to engineer the three-way deal that makes it happen. It’s one thing to decide that Michael Ynoa or Aroldis Chapman is worth signing for $X million dollars; it’s another to get him to actually agree to it. It’s one thing to determine that we should or shouldn’t now sign Beltre/Werth/Crawford/whoever; it’s another to actually get him to sign.
This too falls to the GM, and I think it’s even harder to delegate than the allocation of resources decisions. Beane, for instance, I think has delegated the latter more than the former. The skill of getting deals done is about personal relationships with agents, players, and other GMs. In my opinion, it is what made Beane great during his period of greatness, even more than his ability to intelligently allocate resources. It’s why he proved a better GM than Ricciardi or DePodesta. It also seems to be where he’s coming up short now, though as usual we don’t know if that’s because he’s not as good as he once was or if he just has a harder sell to make due to circumstances beyond his control.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
very good points
and thanks for the praise.
I agree that Beane best asset was once the relationships side, and the skill in getting the deal done. You might argue that he worked that magic again in flying to the D.R. and getting Michel Ynoa to sign with the A’s.
I also think Beane is very smart to never misstep publicly, as Ricciardi did far too often, and that he’s better at communicating a vision to the press than DePo was (although, in DePo’s defense, he had to deal with Bill Plaschke and T.J. Simers, who seemed to hate him and everything that he represented from the beginning).
I don’t know if Beane is as good at the relationships as he once was. I don’t think that Moneyball helped him, though. The book openly criticized Minaya, for example.
I wonder if, if Beane could simply go back in time 10 years, if he would once again allow Michael Lewis so much access to their draft room and phone convos, etc.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree about Moneyball
bq: I wonder if, if Beane could simply go back in time 10 years, if he would once again allow Michael Lewis so much access to their draft room and phone convos, etc.
I sure wouldn’t, if I were sitting in his office. I have felt it is almost Greek tragedy- a character flaw to want to brag to the outside world about the secret process, and one’s own prowess at working it.
but I know it’s arrogant of me to judge him…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 7, 2010 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Your assertion requires the assumption that baseball markets operate efficiently
and you have done nothing to show that they do.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
The beauty of this is that the onus is on you...
…to come up with a rational reason why Cust went unclaimed. But, contrary to what lencrafters had written, I will acknowledge explanation that make sense to me. And I’m not one of those who remain so wed to an opinion that I fail to make concessions when they’re warranted.
I often acknowlege good points on the message board — my posting record will vouch for that.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Easy
Cust went unclaimed because the relevant GMs had an irrational prejudice against the kind of production that Cust provides. The ones who didn’t have that prejudice had already acquired DH options at that time.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 6, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Since the irrationality/rationality of GMs cannot readily be proven...
…I won’t bust your balls about that throwaway statement. But I will let you list the teams who you believe were being irrational regarding Cust’s value. perhaps, then, we could delve into some of the reasons why those GMs were being ‘irrational’.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
OK
Forget about the NL teams, first off.
Rule out the following because they already had DHs or, in the case of Minnesota, signed an even better one for cheaper:
Boston
Cleveland
Detroit
Tampa
Toronto
Minnesota
Baltimore can be crossed off because their team was obviously hopeless from the start. Ditto K.C., which also hamstrung itself by having to play Jose Guillen or Billy Butler at DH if it didn’t want to murder its defense. Seattle had non-baseball considerations (the desire to be nice to Griffey) get in the way.
So we’re really looking at:
New York
Texas
Los Angeles
Chicago
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Chicago is the only one I can see
Nick Johnson had very productive numbers when/if he were healthy. Texas was hoping Vlad would regain some pop in that hitter’s park — and he pretty much did for the first half of the season. Los Angeles: tough call who’s better between Cust or Matsui [didn’t Cust struggle in ST?].
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Isn't this opposing your own argument?
You had 9 teams for whom Cust made no sense, 3 where it was sort of debatable (I’d add that the Matsui contract was likely not much more of a net expense than Cust because of Japanese marketing revenue) with prejudice potentially providing the tipping point, and one team with a weirdo GM that just plain old screwed the pooch.
That doesn’t exactly buttress the notion that Cust’s “true value” must be low because no other GM scooped him up.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I suppose it is.
I suppose that I am conceding that Cust would have made sense for one, possibly two teams not named the Athletics.
What does this…
Since you seem to believe that religiously, there’s no point in continuing this discussion because the counterargument (that some GMs are stupid and don’t always make moves that maximize wins) will never convince you otherwise.
…mean for me now?
This does not mean that those GMs in question were or are stupid, though. I would never go as far as others would in suggesting that they are stupid or incompetent. And it surprises me when others are willing to go that far and actually believe that it is true.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
It's rather amusing that you would bring that up again,
considering that people have already made the argument that Cust would’ve made sense for teams like the White Sox and Mariners. I wrote that post well after those arguments were presented when you plainly stated you weren’t convinced then.
I’m not sure why you’re suddenly convinced now since Paul and I basically just repeated those same arguments everyone else already made…other than to say “gotcha!”
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
The onus is not on him--or on any of us Cust sycophants.
You know why? Because we don’t care. We didn’t introduce this element into the discussion. You guys did. The anti-Cust crowd loves to talk about the way no one picked him up when they had a chance. That means the onus is on YOU to prove why this question even matters.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, now no Cust supporter cares.
I’m calling BS on that one.
I guess you’re correct [but not about who the onus is on, I’m not ready to give in on that one], this doesn’t matter. But, if Cust is let go after this season and is not picked up by anyone else, will that change things?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions
No. It won't.
It will simply mean that, in addition to every other general manager in the American League who shouldn’t have passed on him, Billy Beane is ALSO wrong about Jack Cust.
The fact that a small group of guys who happen to be general managers, most of whom resoundingly did not get their positions because of baseball acumen, didn’t want to take the opportunity to pick up Jack Cust, does not mean anything in regards to the actual quality of Jack Cust. And that’s why I don’t think any Cust supporter cares about the question.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL! You don't care.
If you truly didn’t care you wouldn’t invest so much time debating.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
I, personally, have not spent very much time at all debating the question of why GMs passed on Cust.
It is a meaningless exercise to me. I do not care that they passed on him. I am only thankful that they did so. All that matters to me is that according to on-base percentage, which is literally the best tool we have for measuring how often a guy gets on base, Jack Cust gets on base a lot; and that according to OPS, which is universally accepted as a good indicator of a hitter’s value, Jack Cust was a top-shelf performer this year; and that according to WAR, which is almost as universally accepted—at least among people who know what stats are—as a good indicator of a hitter’s value, Jack Cust was definitely better than Vlad Guerrero this year.
I do not care about your odd devotion to the strange inner workings of the minds of stupid men who have foolishly been allowed to run the affairs of teams like the Orioles, or the Mariners, or the Royals. The Baltimore Orioles are not the arbiters of good baseball roster planning, in my mind.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
This just became religious [broad definition]
And since I’m agnostic, I no longer want my dog in this hunt.
But by all means, start sending your résumé and kick-ass cover letter out if what you wrote has any truth to it.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
The religiosity of the language didn't escape me.
It wasn’t intentional, but it became apparent. I’m an atheist myself.
I’m not sure what the stuff about the résumé and kick-ass cover letter is about, but whatever.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I felt something as arrogant
as psychoanalyzing Jack Cust based on one season of RISP splits really needed a separate post to emphasize how wacky it was.
The stats are easily available at baseball-reference, but since you insist on making me do the legwork for the 50th time, his career RISP numbers are .249/.407/.439. That’s a tOPS+ of 105, meaning he’s been 5 percent better than usual with RISP.
With runners on it’s .249/.384/.461, tOPS+ of 104. Bases loaded? .263/.358/.500, tOPS+ of 104. He’s been very bad with just a runner on third (tOPS+ of 52) but brilliant with runners on first and third (tOPS+ of 142).
This is gibberish. It’s completely meaningless random variation.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 11 recs
Green please
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 5, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just trying to explain why people would be frustrated with his performance this season
Telling me what he did in the craptastic 2009 season where no games meant anything because we didn’t sniff the division race doesn’t really explain why a lot of fans are frustrated with his 2010 performance, when there was actually a division title within reach.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
also
Why are his 2009 numbers relevant to evaluating his 2010 performance?
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I think very relevant for responding to
a quote like this:
I think Jack Cust is a bad tester and for whatever reason isn’t comfortable hitting in situations where he is being depended on to bring runners home.
It’s not really correct to make a conclusion like that when the facts plainly state that Cust has hit better with RISP for his career. If you want to say that Cust performed poorly in a small selection of at bats from the most recent season, I guess that’s ok but it really isn’t anything more than an inconsequential anecdote. If you want to make conclusions about the player himself your much better off looking at his whole career than tiny sample sizes.
fair enough - that's a good point
I probably shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions on that.
I feel like we shouldn’t be held to a standard of university thesis defenses when posting on a message board, but looking at the comment I definitely overreached a little.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 6, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Yikes
That was a totally uncalled for mocking. There isn’t an ounce of hubris in it, either.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Wait, seriously?
Presuming to analyze Jack Cust’s mental state and call him a “bad tester” based on, in effect, a handful of cherrypicked at-bats from one season is not hubris?
overestimating one’s own competence or capabilities
Sounds very apropos to me.
I encourage, for the sake of hilarity, that someone try something like that at a sports psychology conference. You would literally be laughed out of the building.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2010 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It makes more sense if you meant it that way.
I read the word “hubris” in its more commonly used way, which is to imply haughtiness or arrogance. From where I sat, you were calling someone arrogant simply because they were wrong. If that’s not what you intended, then fine I guess, though it was still completely unnecessary to put it that way.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I read "hubris" as it was intended.
One of the things I love about Paul’s writing is that he reliably uses words in a way that hearkens to the words’ richer traditional meanings.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Agreed
A common thread of both you and Paul’s writing is that I reliably get smarter when I read it – which is the main reason I am here, to associate with a group of peers that my life and work experiences doesn’t afford me, sadly.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 6, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking of words used well,
I forgot to give PL a shout-out for his excellent use of “ominous” way upthread. That made me smile.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
really? i mean considering its traditionally negative connotation I didn't see its use as appropriate
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that's his point
The etymological meaning, as it were, is neutral— something ominous is simply something that connotes some omen.
No particular reason why it has to be a bad omen.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yes, exactly.
As DFA’s reaction demonstrates, the word is well on its way to becoming a bland meaningless magnifier. PL used it in a way which is consistent with contemporary use but still resonates with its roots as something that is an omen for the future.
Carter’s big blasts are ominous because they portend a possible future.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The classic examples of hubris
are Phaethon taking the reins of the sun-chariot, or Icarus flying too close to the sun after he and his father escaped from Minos’ palace. Very much in the “overestimating one’s own capabilities” mold.
It is a species of arrogance, though. The arrogance comes not from being wrong, but from the erroneous assumption that one can extrapolate a particular kind of conclusion from a particular kind of data. (“I can fly now, so I can fly as high as I want to!”) It’s the same reason people were jumping on me for seemingly abusing a small sample of UZR for Chris Carter.
There was some straw-man stuff going on there, but if I had actually been saying what I was accused of saying, it would clearly have been hubristic. You just can’t make a judgment on a player’s likely UZR based on a tenth of a season, and you can’t make a judgment on a player’s psyche based on clutch stats from one season, either.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That's fine, I guess.
I still don’t see any reason to say “let’s point and laugh at this person for saying what they did,” just because they were wrong. But whatever.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I would say it's closer to pride--in the negatively connoted sense--than arrogance.
That’s how I’ve always understood it. It seemed to be used pretty interchangeably with pride in the Biblical context.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
"handful of cherrypicked at-bats"???
It wasn’t “from one season”, it was the entire season.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
No, it wasn't
It was a handful of the at-bats from that season. It’s easy to target a particular split where someone sucks at hitting if you don’t like that person.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yes, it was.
He laid it out and provided the necessary splits…
Bases Empty .306 .420 .508 .928 (183 AB)
Runners On .235 .369 .361 .730 (166 AB)
183 ABs+166 ABs equals 349 ABs. Cust had 349 total ABs for the entire season.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
All this does is observe
that everything is either A or not-A. Great.
That’s one split. Why pick that split? And why on earth would you not use career numbers?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Changing direction again?
All I did was point out that the numbers provided by others were indeed an entire season. Would it really have been so hard to simply acknowledge that fact?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
The fact that A+B=C does not mean that A=C, or that B=C. In fact, it means that neither of them =C.
C is a full season. A is not a full season. Neither is B. A and B are small sample sizes.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
this
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Then we should treat equally both sides, yes?
The numbers with the bases empty mean as little as the ones with runners on.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yes
Both are completely meaningless at predicting Cust’s future performance in such situations.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm willing to entertain the notion that if Jack Cust got 1000 PAs in a season,
with like 500 occurring with RISP, then you might start to try and see what the pattern was. You might at least have a psychologist speak to Cust. 500 is a significant sample size, and it would be worth checking out.
But like 125? No no never never nuh uh.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe it ought to be compared to UZR
A three-year sample of numbers w/RISP would be more useful than one, but so are career numbers.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It would seem...
…that single years broken out could indicate a trend, if said trend is consistent either up or down and large enough to be meaningful. All seasons should be included, though.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Sure, but then you get into the realm of debating what's large enough to be meaningful
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Since a single season is the largest unbroken block of time available...
…it would seem we’re stuck with that whether we like it or not. Couldn’t large blocks of unproductive time such as an off-season potentially cause enough disruption to skew results?
If results vary significantly from one year to the next. Some players are all over the place while others are more consistent.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Wow
Not only are you advocating bullshit “trend” analysis, but in a stat that doesn’t have any predictive value in the first place?
Are you trying to hit the junk science jackpot?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Even then, that's nowhere near enough.
It takes a right-handed batter about 2000 plate appearances against LHP to figure out the extent of a hitter’s R/L platoon split. Yes, 2000. That’s about ten years. 500 is fine for general purposes, but trying to determine the difference between normal production and a split’s production is a really fine distinction. Takes way way more data for that than you’d expect.
It's worse than that-- where no actual skill is involved,
as in RISP hitting or Wednesday hitting, the sample size required is literally infinite.
Platoon hitting is actually a skill that differs (sliiiightly) from player to player. RISP hitting isn’t.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
One could make the argument that a hitter psyches himself out.
If a guy was hitting .204, in 1500 plate appearances with RISP, and hitting .398 in 2500 plate appearances without RISP, one might begin to think something was wrong with his thinking.
I’m not saying anything would be proven just by those numbers, but you might want to look into it.
But that’s not the case, and to my knowledge, it never has been the case with any hitter ever.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm amused by the direction this portion of the thread is going.
Basically, let’s give the illusion of thoughtful consideration by saying we’d be more than happy to be open-minded if the bar for a single season is set so high as to be unreachable. Hence, the theory never has to be challenged and we get to present ourselves to others as fair and balanced.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
No, it's not too high.
The statistical bar is too high to determine if one particular player is consistently worse than his usual with RISP, yes, but on the general question for all players we have ample data. We can sample the situation for all players and look for a pattern. This study has been done, repeatedly, and it can be done again any time you like.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Dude, I didn't make up statistical analysis.
If you’ve got a beef with the rules of mathematics, take it up with mathematicians. But I think I’m going to still end up believing their side of the argument. Because in a debate about math, mathematicians are going to be more correct than just-some-guy-with-a-grudge-against-Jack-Cust.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
My friends who are
professional statisticians always say that the problem is not when the statistics are wrong, but rather when the people using them use them in arguments that are wrong.
I don’t think the question here is whether the statistics are wrong; only whether they support the conclusions you draw from them.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Dude's saying that 125 PAs is enough to be significant.
He’s wrong. He’s wrong about a principle of statistical analysis in baseball.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally.
The only number that means anything is C. A and B aren’t big enough. Really, C is barely big enough.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
What you cannot refute is that
In 2010 Jack Cust flat out sucked balls with runners on base, especially compared to with bases empty. That is a fact.
And that is why people are frustrated with his 2010 performance despite the fact that his overall numbers are decent.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 6, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
This has no more relevance to upgrading the team's talent
than do billions of other undisputed facts, such as the fact that I am currently wearing a grey sweatshirt. True? Absolutely. Relevant? Nope.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm failing to see the point behind this post.
On the one hand you now seem to (grudgingly) admit it as fact now, yet still cling to the notion that it should be dismissed by attempting to divert focus in another direction so you can maintain your ‘rightness’, or at least ‘unwrongness’.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
The color of my sweatshirt has as much correlation with Jack Cust's ability to hit with RISP
as his RISP splits from this season do, viz., none.
Neither fact is on point in the context of this discussion. Facts are useless unless they are relevant. RISP hitting has been proven, every time someone has studied it, to be a junk statistic. (I have no doubt that a similar analysis would prove my sweatshirt color on a given day to also be a junk statistic.) It has no relevance to anything.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
"Viz."
The only people I have ever read using “viz.” are people writing for the New Yorker, and David Foster Wallace.
You should write for the New Yorker, because you use “viz.” Submit a resume, and all it should say is “viz.”
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Heh
I have an old-fashioned style to my writing sometimes. I think it’s derived from reading a lot of Civil War-era authors.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Viz isn't really that old-fashioned.
It’s commoner in British writing. You’ll see it in The Economist, for instance.
(But if you’re trying to glean the connotation of viz, Paul’s use above is likely to lead you astray. He’s using it ironically.)
[…deletes lengthy and pedantic usage dicussion]
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The really old fashioned word is "qua"
Which for some reason political scientists (and especially German ones) won’t stop using.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Qua is a useful word
eg, ie, and viz are readily replaced by “for example”, “that is”, and “to wit”. To replace qua you’d have to say “in their capacity as”, which is clumsy and tends to make the sentence less comprehensible.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
If you need either in your sentence
You’re doing it wrong.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 7, 2010 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
well played
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes.
Jack Cust has indeed flat out sucked balls with runners on base in 2010. That is definitely true. But does it mean anything? No.
How can it not mean anything? Isn't that his job?
I mean, we give pitchers a pass on hitting because they specialize in pitching, and we expect them to concentrate on being better pitchers at the expense of hitting. (In non-DH leagues, of course)
Shouldn’t a DH be viewed in some similar fashion… as a “hitting specialist”? A little more expectation than a regular position player because they don’t have defense to balance their worth?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
A batter's change in performance with RISP means basically nothing as far as hitting talent.
It literally has no correlation.
All you did was say the same thing over again...
…so I’m still unclear why driving runs in… or at least taking a BB… when they are available to be driven in is not important.
It’s not like he’s a defensive whiz that can be hidden in an otherwise strong lineup. No, he hits. Period. The onus is on him to be MORE productive, or at least more consistent, at hitting than a full-time position player who would have other value to the team. Ostensibly, his job is to help the team score runs. Scoring runs is the goal, isn’t it?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
...this response came a full hour after my discussion of the whole "hitting specialist" thing was posted.
It’s still RIGHT below this comment, if you actually care to read it.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, he's a hitting specialist. And he was the best hitter on the time in 2010.
I’m OK with our hitting specialist being the best hitter on the team.
As for the RISP thing…what if I told you that in 133 plate appearances, a dude had a slash line of .234/.375/.318? And what if I also told you that in 65 plate appearances, another dude had a slugging percentage of .435? If you answer would be anything other than “small sample size,” then you just don’t understand small sample size.
So. What were those numbers? The slash line was Jack Cust with RISP. That’s right, just 133 plate appearances. And the slugging percentage? That was Jeremy Hermida with RISP. A slugging percentage of .435 with RISP…in 65 plate appearances with RISP. I don’t think Hermida’s a better DH candidate than Cust, though.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
best hitter on the TEAM, sorry.
I’m making so many dumb mistakes lately.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
He did change his approach
You can see that he’s more aggressive with none on, more patient with runners on. That leads to the inevitable bouts of frustration. Or walks. Is it Jack? Jim Skaalen?
It might be that he sees more strikes with none on
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
That's just a flukey statistical thing.
He’s been a better hitter with RISP in his career, which is a far, far bigger sample.
Seriously, isn't that just a tad too convenient?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Not if you bet on tails.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 5, 2010 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's "too convenient" the way that having a corner store right across the street from where I work is "too convenient."
Yes, it is very convenient. It’s also just true, and there’s nothing suspicious about it. Statistically, for his career, he doesn’t have some weird psychological block when runners are in scoring position. He hits fine. This year, the luck didn’t shake out that way. This year, a lot of the PAs in which he didn’t do well happened to come with RISP. That’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a serious question, Leo, and you're right to ask,
but in fact, it has been asked many times by people who went over the numbers looking for a correlation, and the correlation simply isn’t found.
If you look at a player’s overall hitting numbers, they are somewhat predictive of how he hits in the future. If you look at a player’s hitting numbers with RISP, they are not predictive of how he hits with RISP in the future. (His overall hitting numbers do predict how he will hit with RISP in the future.)
This has been looked at many times and the findings are consistent. For a hitter to be particular good or particularly bad with RISP is not a repeatable trait.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Adam Lind played 136 games at DH for the Blue Jays.
Hit .237/.285/.425 overall. Do you really think the Jays GM doesn’t wish he put in a claim on Cust?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
by travdog6 on Oct 5, 2010 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
well
those weren’t empty numbers./snark
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
You can be snarky all you want, but...
…you cannot explain why not one single GM was willing to grab him. You can try, but you’ll fail. Cust was the “4th best DH”, ya know… according to some. There should have been ten teams needing an upgrade and at least 4 or 5 of them willing to actually do it. On the cheap, too.
Then again, if players like Matt Stairs can still get on NL teams, then Cust might have a shot there, as well, so it’s not just AL-only.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
They were wrong.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
All of them? Not likely.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
And yet true
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just disagree.
I guess we’re at a stalemate on this one.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Indeed.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
All 10 of them.
Not so unlikely.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I know 12 or 13 guys that think human umpires are important to baseball.
Doesn’t make them right. Just makes them 12 or 13 guys with the same opinion.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Even if no GM wanted or wants Cust,
what does that have to do with his 2010 value or his value going forward? You’ve said Gm’s didn’t want him. That’s fair. Can you give us any evidence he hasn’t been good other than GM’s not wanting him?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Evidence? None that you would accept...
…considering that you seem to be on the other side of the fence and buy into the notion that stats are, without fail, all-knowing and all-telling. You could show me stats for 98% of players, and tell me why that stat shows that player is good or bad, and I would agree with you. There are exceptions, however, and I believe Cust is one of those rare exceptions.
FWIW, my conclusions regarding Cust go back a long way, before this past spring. The resulting utter and complete lack of interest in him only helped to confirm my conclusion, not create it. Like I said before, I know I am in the minority on this one, but I have yet to see anybody offer up anything other than weak vague excuses as to said lack of interest. And no, roster crunches don’t cut it. A place can be found for any player on almost any roster if said player is as good as many here believe Cust is… especially for a cheap as he would have cost.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Sure, I'm on the other side of the fence
but I’d like to think I’m very open minded too. Try me. All you’ve got so far is that his numbers are empty and GM’s didn’t want him. You’ve yet to explain empty, despite people asking you to.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
So by this logic, Barry Zito is awesome because he signed a gigantic contract?
Pam liked my old sig better.
He's so awesome, the Giants are going to the postseason without him.
They didn’t want to be unfair to the rest of the National League.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
People have provided plenty of solid reasons as to why Cust wasn't picked up.
Choosing to ignore them and calling them “weak” without base is only gonna annoy a bunch of people who actually took time to respond to you. Since you’ve shown no indication of wanting to be convinced, just admit that you plain don’t like the guy for whatever reason (trust me, this is ok) so we can all move on and not waste anymore time on this.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
How about this: GMs are dumb and didn't see any value in him.
I don’t think I care for the way you cleverly align yourself with a group of 30 people who just so happen to also be 30 people that you and those who agree with you hold up as the gold standard of baseball decisionmaking. When you say that GMs not snapping him up is evidence of his lack of value, you set up general managers as the ultimate arbiters of baseball ability. Furthermore, you align yourself with their decisionmaking in each of your comments, pointing out that you felt this way all along, and your views were only confirmed by all of these other baseball geniuses passing on Jack Cust.
Numbers don’t lie. Jack Cust doesn’t lose his mind when runners are on second and third. He barely even has enough PAs TOTAL to not be a small sample size for 2010, and he CERTAINLY doesn’t have enough RISP PAs or non-RISP PAs to be good sample size.
Furthermore, you say you came to this conclusion about his “empty” numbers, his inability to hit with RISP or whatever, before the 2010 season. That puts you in an even weaker rhetorical position, because this was the first season in which he didn’t hit well with RISP! (Naturally, that’s when the “empty-numbers” peoiple say, "Well sure, he hit well with RISP in a meaningless season, but not in an important one. How many straws can you grasp at?)
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Stupid keyboard. Read that last bit as...
(Naturally, that’s when the "empty-numbers" people say, “Well sure, he hit well with RISP in a meaningless season, but not in an important one.” How many straws can you grasp at?)
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
One other thing that I can't remember
anyone bringing up in this enormous thread.
Jack Cust really was worse in April than he was for the rest of the year. When he was in Sacramento at the start of the year he didn’t really hit all that well. It could just be a fluke, since he is streaky after all, but it also might mean he had a slow start for some real physical reason — maybe he came into camp out of shape or something. If so, then maybe the other GMs looked at him and saw that, and that was part of their decision to pass on him when he was available.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Very
And when he was DFA’d a number of people complained that it was stupid to do that based on a poor Spring Training.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
because it is very stupid to DFA your best hitter the year before because of bad ST numbers.
He still had 19 total bases in 19 games, Ellis had 20 in 19 and Chavez had 19 in 16 games. Cust STILL obliterated Jake Fox’s numbers, and was better than Suzuki. ST stats are not good but there was literally no reason for Fox not to be cut in ST.
Primitive numbers, but theyre here:
I think the truth of it is it was more than just his ST numbers
Yeah, there were things going on with people like Fox, Patterson and Chavez, but the timing of it was also a big factor as we’ve established.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
and the timing is the #1 reason why no one should ever argue "no team wanted him".
Teams were set in stone by the time he was DFA’d. The White Sox should have absolutely picked him up, but other than them, every other team had a DH already.
Nothing is ever "set in stone".
A place can always be found for the right player. Always. Without exception.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
A place can always be found for Albert Pujols.
A place can always be found for Josh Hamilton. A place can always be found for 1998-era Mark McGwire.
No one’s saying that’s what Jack Cust is.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly my point.
“4th best”, while not automatically great in an overall historical sense, isn’t exactly chopped liver in a here-and-now relative sense, either.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
What?
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 9, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
indeed
Jake Fox was the mistake. Leaving Cust off the roster for that waste of space was sad.
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 7, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
But their rationale was understandable
They didn’t want to give up on the chance that Fox was the next Jack Cust – an unheralded player who had never been given a full-season opportunity.
If Fox had worked out, and could SLG .500 in Oakland (a truly awesome feat), then the A’s would’ve had an outstanding bargain – a $400K 3 WAR player for the next few years.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
the only fallacy with that idea was keeping Patterson as well
I got why we gave Fox so much leeway. Dude tore it UP in AAA. We could have had Fox AND Cust and dropped e-pat.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 7, 2010 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
They were hoping Patterson could be their 2011 second baseman
Making $400K, producing 2-3 WAR and making their $6M option decision a little easier, especially if Ellis had struggled and been very injured.
Obviously that one didn’t pan out, either. :)
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Patterson tore it up in AAA too...
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
The snark was a response to the 'sycophant' phrasing
Well, I think that there were only a handful of GMs who had a hole at the DH spot at the time Cust was waved and they made a mistake. Off of the top of my head the RedSox, Yanks, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, Rangers, Angels, and others all already had everyday DHs. They were not going to claim him.
The elephant in the room here is this empty numbers thing. Huh?
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Fair point on the phrasing thing.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Matt Stairs was relegated to being pretty much a PH only in the NL, save the occasional start
Cust is not at that stage in his career, so unless someone wants to throw him in LF every day he’s still an AL-only player.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
More value in the AL, sure...
…I just meant not value-less in the NL. A player like Cust could do PH and occasional spot starting in the NL if that were the only option left open, and that conceivably there might be an NL team willing to do that.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Ugh. Facts and statistics.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah Im really glad UncleLeo went out of his way to ruin my post by beating the dead horse Cust argument.
We have not control over people, places and things
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I control a small South American village and everything and everyone in it.
But that’s just for fun.
That does sound like fun
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Ew, straight-edge culture.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I used to be straight edge
but now I eat egg whites.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 6, 2010 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
But we have control over adjectives and adverbs?
YES!
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you two claiming that ALL stats are equal, and that ALL facts are objectively conclusive?
If so, please explain the relevance of the GWRBI.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Hey! I said "Ugh".
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
umm, there's now another front page thread which does exactly this
Explains why Cust was allowed to clear a DFA at the beginning of the season, but will not do so now…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 6, 2010 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
In hindsight, as this post is? He might.
He had as much chance as anybody else, too.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Cust is clearly better than DH's around the league.
Kotsay, Lind, Damon, Kubel, Guillen among others all saw significant time at DH this year. Hell, you could even argue that Cust was than Guerrero and Matsui this year. Are those guys better?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
There's no argument.
Cust had a reasonable advantage in wOBA, .371 to .356, over Matsui, and .371 to .360 over Vlad.
Oh, wait. Dingerz. CUST SUXX VLAD AN MATSUI WERE BETTER
Pam liked my old sig better.
Not to mention both Matsui and Vlad played in better hitters' parks
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, to be fair to Alex A, no one expected that kind of meltdown season from Lind
Not a year after he hit .305/.370/.562.
The teams that were obviously morons not to take him on were the White Sox and the Mariners. Though the Mariners had their own “beached corpse stinking up the joint” problem with Griffey, much as the A’s did with Chavez.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Even the Yankees
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I fear the yankees would pick him up if non tendered this year
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Right, I just wanted to point out that there are DH's that were farrrrrr worse than Cust this year.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Cust mentioned lind in a post DFA article
he say something to the efeect, the blue jays signed lind just before.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Eric Chavez played 31 games at DH for the Athletics.
Hit .234/.276/.333 overall. Do you really think the A’s GM doesn’t wish he put in a claim on Cust?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No, he lovessss Chavez
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
So you don't think Kenny Williams is kicking himself for not grabbing Cust to DH
instead of giving Mark Kotsay the most games at DH?
Kotsay was below replacement this year.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Are you asking in hindsight, or at the time?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Both, to be honest.
Kotsay hadn’t played a full season since 2006. Can you really say with a straight face that you would have expected Kotsay to hit better than Cust this year?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Williams is one of the better GMs in terms of wanting to win...
…Cust should have been a Godsend for helping him win, no?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
He wants to win more than other GMs?
I’m not sure how you would quantify that.
What’s very puzzling about Williams is that he had no problem taking like a $50M gamble on Alex Rios, but wouldn’t wager $2.5M on Jack Cust being better than Mark Kotsay.
So, I’ll ask again and expect to not be answered: Before this season, did you expect Mark Kotsay to be a better hitter than Jack Cust?
Pam liked my old sig better.
"...and doing what it takes to try and win", I should have added.
What’s very puzzling about Williams is that he had no problem taking like a $50M gamble on Alex Rios, but wouldn’t wager $2.5M on Jack Cust being better than Mark Kotsay.
Williams has not always been constrained by the checking account balance, or roster crunches, if a chance of winning is within reach, so yes, it is puzzling that he would take a flyer on what is obviously such a great and underrated player. Or, is it? You really didn’t answer my question, either.
If, even at the end of ST, if Cust were available… AND so much better than Kotsay… AND cheap… how could he not sign Cust? Even if Kotsay had a guaranteed contract (which I’m sure he did), surely somebody somewhere with options could have been bumped to AAA. If Cust is really that much of a difference-maker.
Should I also not expect an answer?
So, I’ll ask again and expect to not be answered: Before this season, did you expect Mark Kotsay to be a better hitter than Jack Cust?
Define “better”. Do you mean the standard “stats are faultless and all-telling and all-knowing” definistion, or “stats are normally correct and valid, but can occasionally be flawed” definition?
If you mean the former, which I suspect, then I cannot answer that, as I don’t believe that to be true. If you mean the latter, maybe… but other factors such as Kotsay’s injury-proneness may mean that even if he hits “better” when he does hit, his value overall may still may not be as high. One of Cust’s benefits is that he stays healthy.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
I don't know. I'm not Kenny Williams. I can't pretend to tell you why he thought Mark Kotsay was a good idea as a DH.
but I can see your point. Mark Kotsay’s grit and determination are worth .150 points of OPS, which is essentially what you are saying, because there is no fathomable way that you can try and say that Kotsay is better than Cust. At all. Frankly it’s turning into the point of being ridiculous and you are just trying keep having an absolutely stupid argument.
Pam liked my old sig better.
by mikev on Oct 5, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm sorry I don't fall in lockstep with the majority.
You’re also reading more into what I am saying than what I am really saying, taking it to an unintended extreme. One of those “you’re either with me or you’re against me” scenarios, I guess.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
In this case, yes.
Since “majority” would actually be “the stats that prove X is significantly better than Y” and yet you are bending over backward to argue in favor of “Y”
Pam liked my old sig better.
Recognize that you have no control over the direction a post goes in, please
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 5, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just hate Cust argument so much, so very much.
People hate him because he makes the least outs. I cannot fucking stand that logic.
That's not really why the people who dislike him actually dislike him
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Let's explore this further
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
A couple points...
1) You may not like it or approve, but an honest difference of opinion is not “trolling”. Grow up.
2) It’s not your post. It’s an open forum. If you want control over who participates, create your own forum. Until then…
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Well can you please stay on topic
You dont like Cust? Fine. Who do we target in your opinion then?
I think its because I made the post and set the parameters and also tried to stop morons denying how good a DH Cust is in my actual write-up, then you chose to ignore it completely and use a bunch of illogical reasoning as to why you think he’s not good, that infuriates me. None, not one, zero of your posts have any kind of irrefutable evidence as to why he’s not our best option at DH next year. That is why you are trolling in this thread.
No.
I am squarely on topic.
YOU brought up Cust. YOU mentioned how great you think he is. You gave your side. Hence, YOU opened it/him up for discussion. I disagree. I gave my side. That’s the whole purpose and meaning of a forum like this. You disagree with me. I’m ok with that.
Am I only obligated to agree with you? What’s the fun… or even purpose… in that? Like I said… you need to grow up a bit.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
by UncleLeo on Oct 5, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, it has nothing to do with you agreeing with me.
and Im as grown as Im gunna get. You need to quit beating the dead horse and not dwell on a topic that has been gone over and over and over and over and over again on here. WE KNOW: some people love him, others do not. Yet again a perfectly fine thread gets derailed thanks to ol’ JJ Cust, its beyond annoying.
You could have simply said “I think we should target Dunn or Konerko to replace Cust at DH” and then do we have something to talk about. You did not, instead you used some of the dumbest reasoning Ive ever read on here to create some mini-thread inside of the one where I spent some time and energy to get people off track. You might not do this regularly, but you absolutely trolled this post here.
For good or for bad, Cust is polarizing. It just is.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Then stop replying.
This thread would be 200 posts shorter if people didn’t find it necessary to mock every inaccurate statement made, instead of:
1) taking three seconds to just plain respond to it
2) taking zero seconds to move on to something they find more enjoyable, which by the last few posts would include elective open heart surgery.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Inaccurate statements need to be shown why they are wrong
Or else the poster will think what they are saying is correct, when it is nonsense. Cust is a great, great hitter. You cannot say crap like “he has empty numbers” and not expect to rile people up. That’s pure trolling, plain and simple.
Ugh
You’re very quick to decide something is trolling when it likely isn’t, especially if someone believes what they’re saying. Generally people who are trolling will say anything it takes to get a reaction, especially something the person may not even believe.
The fact is a lot of people do not value Jack Cust (or elements of his game) the way others do or are willing to accept along with the better things he does do.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
You nailed my exact reason why I called him out
Generally people who are trolling will say anything it takes to get a reaction.
Like saying “Cust has empty numbers and is a bad player because no one wanted him when he was DFA’d on basically opening day”.
On this site in particular, this topic has been covered and re-covered and it has been agreed that he polarizes people. Talking smack about him will only drive topics off course. You dont have to like him, you might not like his face or some other frivolous reason (I hate AJ Pierzynski, for example). But if you are going to post your "reasoning"s which are so mired in opinion and not facts, and play them off as the latter, then you are trolling. The fact that UncleLeo refuses to go to baseball-reference or fangraphs and forces the people who bring up that hes wrong to do his work for him, again, plays into trolling.
I still think you're off base on the trolling accusation
Easy to throw out there, harder to prove in some cases.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
well there are different levels
like OMGZ CHOKELAND PATHETICZ SUX0RZZZ and then there’s the more covert “bring up a continual topic of contention”.
I honestly feel we should have DFA’d Fox, Patterson or Buck instead of Cust at the beginning of the year. I felt that from the moment it happened, and the fact that Cust became the 4th best hitting DH even after 6 weeks in limbo cost us a serious chance at this season IMO. I tried to make that point that if we had played at him at DH from the start, he most likely would have been the #1 DH in the game and is a valuable asset we should keep. The retort I got was not based on any kind of facts but were presented as such. I felt the need to show why he was wrong. Thats what happened in my view here.
I guess I'm just asking/recommending not to be so quick to assume trolling...
…especially when it’s someone who’s been around here a while like UncleLeo. A difference of opinion, even one presented like that, is not automatically trolling.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Your speculation that his absence cost the team the division...
…is no more "fact"" based than what you feel my conclusions are, yet you present them anyway being as convinced in them as I am in my conclusions. We disagree. Strongly. It happens.
FWIW: I agree that, if Cust is truly that valuable, DFAing Patterson, Fox, or even Buck would have made infinitely more sense. Shoot, you might even be able to convince me that DFAing any of those three instead would still have been the better option (baseball-wise) even if Cust is not as valuable, as I think.
Patterson had pretty much proven himself disappointing. Fox was never going to be a world-beater, his only value was in being an emergency back-up 3B and C, and even that proved to not be necessary. Buck was out-of-favor for whatever reason. Which brings the question full-circle… Why didn’t they DFA one of those others instead?
Positional considerations? I’ve said several times already that Cust can play LF or RF in a pinch while Chavez was doing his annual slow-motion crash-and-burn, so that’s not likely to be it.
Contractual considerations? He was already signed. They were likely to pay him anyway regardless where he played. That’s not it.
I doubt we’ll ever know “Why Cust?”
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
He said a CHANCE at the division.
Your speculation that his absence cost the team the division… …is no more "fact"" based than what you feel my conclusions are
Sure it is, when you realize that he was talking about a CHANCE at the division. Cust’s numbers are good. When you have a good hitter in your lineup all season, you get performance out of him all season.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
In the interest of full disclosure, he said "serious chance".
Puts a little more emphasis on the implication he might have been a difference maker.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
You're simply wrong. Plain and simple.
But, if it makes you feel better… carry on.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Can you just explain what your actual thesis is?
Do you suspect that Cust just loses all his hitting acumen when there are runners at second and third?
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I was referring to the "trolling" accusation specifically on this one.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
hmmm
“You’re simply wrong. Plain and simple.” coupled with telling me to “grow up a little” in the same thread, that I started??? Yup, that just happened.
PL, you gotta let these things go, man.
You write an interesting thread, some people are gonna hate on it. You can bank on it.
So you write them one thoughtful, articulate response to their rebuttal.
If they still don’t get your point, or vehemently disagree again, or whatever, I’ve found from experience that you’ll be a lot less frustrated if you just move along.
(It’s also kind of a courtesy to other posters, who don’t want to refresh a thread only to read a 100-comment exchange between the same two people that won’t reach common ground).
Thanks for putting in the time to write this thread.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 7, 2010 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions
thanks, I did learn that from this exchange.
I just cant break some peoples trains of thought, no matter how illogical and based on “heart” and not what actually happens on the field, they are going to be like that forever. Thanks for appreciating, your posts are always worth reading too, FWIW.
You may have a point IF UncleLeo has made the dame point over and over
You do not have a point in general, however. Just because you have read, responded to, and fought over the Cust argument over and over again, does not mean that every AN’er has also done so. Some folks read all the posts and all the comments, some do not.
If you wish to restrict those who have not from contributing, simply because it is an old argument, the site will wither and die.
Sorry, it’s just the facts.
UncleLeo may not have brought any stats into the picture, but he has consistently laid out his point of view, which is that stats can mislead, and he thinks Cust’s superior stats cause him to be overvalued by those who believe that stats are perfect representations of value in baseball. That opinion doesn’t make him wrong, stupid, or in any way justify your accusation that he is trolling.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 8, 2010 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Okay, then
Inaccurate statements need to be shown why they are wrong
Like this one: “That’s pure trolling, plain and simple.”
If anything, it’s baiting. And that’s debatable because it wasn’t personal…unless there really are elements of sycophancy at play here.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 7, 2010 3:49 AM PDT up reply actions
baiting/trolling = not a lot of difference.
Both shift the focus of the post to the individual’s viewpoint, but not the topic at hand.
I mean anyone could drop into any thread and lay down some political or religious smack-talk and the post would get derailed very quickly, thats why those 2 topics got banned altogether around here. I think it would be great if we all just agreed Cust polarizes people, and to leave it at that.
But then...
..you wouldn’t get to say why you think he’s so great and valuable… as you did in your original post.
I think it would be great if we all just agreed Cust polarizes people, and to leave it at that.
Once a topic is brought up… especially in the original post… it’s fair game for people on both sides of the topic to discuss. Not just those on one side… the “approved” side.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
Almost the troll trifecta
#1: Grow up – pretending to take the mature stance
#2: Freedom of speech argument. You have the right to say whatever you feel like without consequences or the need for tact
you only missed:
#3: Hitler. You should always mention Hitler when you’re clearly losing a debate this badly.
by MrIncognito on Oct 5, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
-1
Take out the “Grow up” comment and the first point is spot on.
The FoS wording was not used above. FoS does not exist on a private message board. However, just because someone creates/writes a fan post, it does not give them the right to dictate who responds (and in what fashion) in it. The only person or people with that kind of control are the site managers.
Why bring up Hitler - as you just did - when one feels as though they’re not losing? This isn’t even about winning or losing, it’s about being able to handle reading disagreements — none of which by UncleLeo [from what I read, anyway] were over-the-top, distasteful, rude, or without tact.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 4:21 AM PDT up reply actions
For the record...
…me using a term like “grow up” is out of the ordinary for me. It is not something that I would throw out simply to try and demean a person. However, in this particular case, I do feel it was earned by the OP.
Should I have still used it? Yeah, probably not.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
"Sycophants" in the first comment
was a little distasteful.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
If the shoe fits...
…then, yes, I’m sure it left a bitter taste. j/k.
Yes, I agree that the language can be taken as inflamatory. Wouldn’t it be nice if we lived in a perfect blogging world where inflamatory comments weren’t made to begin with? Would that environment be exciting, pleasant, and not dull all at the same time?
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't really object to the word,
But you did claim that italicized “none” of Leo’s posts were “without tact”, so I’m just showing that you overreached with that claim.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I should have wrote...
…something like this, then: “from what I read, anyway”
Oh, wait…
Truth is, is that I did read the ‘sychphant’ post but in all honesty, I wasn’t clear about the word’s meaning until you brought it up — I thought it meant something more mild.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 6, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
If I have psycho fantasies,
am I a psychofant?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
mmmm
If, even at the end of ST, if Cust were available… AND so much better than Kotsay… AND cheap… how could he not sign Cust?
The same reason he gave Mark Teahen a 14MM contract, traded Swisher for Wilson f—king Betemit, and traded that package for Peavy
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Nobody ever said all his moves were brilliant...
…merely that he is one of the more pro-active GMs at attempting to win.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
although he spends almost the same amount of money on Kotsay
that Jim Thome would’ve cost.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Except he never wins
He fluke won 5 years ago because every single pitcher he had had a career year, he’s been a monumental failure ever since.
What does that say about Beane?
Besides, how can he “never” win, yet also win as a fluke?
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
... that Beane's been super-unlucky in the playoff crapshoot?
Come on.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
orlando Cabrerra
has made the post season in 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010.
With 4 different teams.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Cliff Floyd+ any team ever= Wins!
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
But not with us
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
My sarcasm regarding the point that Williams "never wins" was obviously missed by many.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Let's explore
that in the parameters of $/win … would you change your mind then about BB?
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Just play for the name in front of the uniform.." - Dallas Braden
"Oakland is the emotional choice, and could still work, but San Jose really is the best choice." - UncleLeo
"....there is a little Cust in all of us. " - Athletics fan and runner
by ST on Oct 5, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Because Cust arguments are plentiful and have nothing to do with the topic
Im reporting this for trolling.
Seriously, PL
I’ve seen many many Cust discussions in AN over the years. As Cust discussions go, this one was unusually serious, polite, and constructive.
In fact, the only thing unpleasant about this Cust discussion was you coming in saying, “I hate Cust discussions! Stop trolling my post!”
Maybe it’s not what you set out to talk about, but it was fine. Just let it be.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Oct 5, 2010 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Constructive????
UncleLeo literally used the “OMGZ NO TEAM WANTED HIM” line. There’s nothing he said in this thread about Cust that was worth reading.
Yes, constructive.
It was a good discussion. And given how every other Cust discussion gets personal and turns into stupid insults almost immediately, it was useful to have the real arguments aired again for the first time in a while.
A few words were a a little pointed, but no one took the bait and turned it into a food fight. No one till you.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The rest was quite constructive, especially compared to the usual Cust back-and-forth
Just because you have an issue with UncleLeo doesn’t change the rest of that.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It's not really a weak defense at all
And I’m hardly a Cust lover (used to be more of a Cust hater but I’ve come around a bit).
They really did DFA him right as the final rosters were being put together. Other teams had their DH set. Other teams had completed their springs as well and were ready for the first game of the year. The A’s KNEW this and that’s why they went the DFA route at the last second. They played the odds that even if another team was curious they’d pass due to the timing, and they were right.
That’s how it looks to me, anyway. I said it back then that it was a calculated move and I stand by that now.
That said, I also think there is something to the idea that nobody else really wants Cust. Certainly no NL teams at this point, and whether the other AL teams didn’t appreciate what Cust can do or just feel they had better options at DH at the time, here’s where he stayed.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
In part I fully agree with you.
I agree that Beane’s timing was purposeful in reducing the chances that somebody would claim him. Absolutely, I believe it was calculated that way. And of the arguments against my conclusion, this is the best one, though I believe still lacking to a great degree.
Beane’s gamble did pay off, yet he was willing to take the gamble with Cust, which is telling. Not with Patterson, for example, but with Cust. I don’t doubt that he didn’t “want” to lose Cust, but at the same time knew there was the potential risk and did so anyway. Just as the A’s had fringe players that could have just as easily been DFA’d and/or demoted, no other team had at least a little similar flexibility?
Why not DFA Patterson instead and keep Cust and Chavez? Cust can play LF and RF in a pinch. One could argue DFA Fox, but he was new to the team and hadn’t proven himself unworthy with this team just yet, whereas Patterson really had. Plus, I think Fox’ value was at emergency 3B and C back-ups, which proved to be unnecessary as the season wore on.
Anyway, if Cust’s stats had him pegged as a middle-of-the-pack DH, I’d be less inclined to think much about it. But no, everybody keeps telling how he’s one of the best… in the Top 5… yet that doesn’t mean anything to any other GM?
FWIW: I do believe that Cust was chosen over Chavez purely for non-baseball reasons, i.e. cost of contract, etc.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
God it must be sooooo difficult to be a rapper these days.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I'm sure part of it had to do with Fox and Patterson being able to (technically) play the field
They were, in the eyes of the A’s, more versatile that way. That other teams did take them once they were DFA’d shows at least someone thought there was value in them. Maybe someone (the White Sox?) would have grabbed Cust during the season if he was also DFA’d. Timing is a big factor.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I can see where...
…Cust might have been more attractive in May or later after some players began to shake out the way they did.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
"In part I fully agree with you"?
That’s downright Berra-esque… :)
@Laoren
thanks for providing such excellent insight towards a great hitter with the best OPS on the team. You clearly are an expert of some kind, please inform us to your reasonings as they are way past what literally every poster here can contemplate.
it's the same as it always was
little league thinking. the kid in little league who struck out the most was the worst player on the team. since MLB is the same as little league, cust must be the worst player on the A’s.
Damn the facts, full speed ahead!
"I feel like my opinions and judgments are just too corrupted by the numbers." - thejd44
by eastcoasta'sfan on Oct 5, 2010 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions
disagree on nobody wanted him
There is a big difference in being DFA after spring training and being a FA. Most teams are at their max on payroll after spring training and will not take on extra pay. Cust will not be worth what he could get in arbitration is why Beane will elect to grant him free agency. This time he will not return because of being DFA hurt his pride. He will sign with a team that does not get Dunn or Thome. Only way he goes back to Oakland is if he gets no offers above a million which I don’t see happening. If Crosby can get a million Cust can easily get it. This is the Yank factor in because if they don’t sign Dunn Cust will be their back up plan. Don’t rule out the nationals if Dunn walks because Cust could be their back up plan there too.
by Arcman on Oct 5, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The best hitter on the team won't get ABs? Any particular reason?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Carter
He will be the DH. Cust is not the best hitter on the team. I would take Barton, Ellis, and a healthy Crisp over him any day.
Those guys might be better players overall due to defense and baserunning but not hitting.
Carter isn’t as good as Cust right now.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I predict Carter hits quite a few more HR's than Cust did this year
Carter’s deep fly balls that would normally be outs with Cust will go out of the park. He has way more power and his second time around showed much more maturity and discipline.
And yes, Carter is not as good as Cust right now but won’t be long before he is better IMO.
People either like Cust or they don’t. His OBP is valuable of course but there are so many holes. He didn’t help his value by the lack of home runs. And one thing that did disturb me about him apart from the K’s looking is the balls down the middle that he would swing and miss at. I seem to remember quite a few fastballs blowing by him.
I would finish by saying he was a good hitter on a bad hitting team. And someone who should either hit second or 6th. If only we could have a couple of players who can hit 3rd and 4th that are worthy of those spots then he is valuable enough to keep but I think it’s possible that he is not here next year depending on what else Beane does.
I am pretty confident Carter will be better than Cust by the end of 2011
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes
With his power, I do not see why he cannot hit 25-30 bombs, it should not be that hard because of the power we have already seen. He’s going to K and not hit for a high average but he seems to adjust very well of slow starts and you have to love that bat speed on the inside pitches even if on of the HR’s he hit was a change at like 87 or whatever it was.
Plus I'd take him in the OF over Cust by that time I'm hoping.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I know I know...
Reynolds could be a disaster, but who else at 3B for a reasonable price? Kouz was beyond awful this year with the bat and I seriously doubt he will be THAT good with the glove again…
And Ordoñez makes TOO MUCH sense, He will hit .300/370/450 with his eyes closed, he´s done that year after year and playing half of his game in Comerica, his not a gold glover but isnt a butcher either… AND he won´t cost too much in years or money
Scott / Carter, Crisp and Ordoñez would be a HUGE UPGRADE from what we saw this year
I porobably have no idea what I'm talking about
but doesnt it take some time to get used to a completely different league of pitchers? From what I understand he was a decent hitter in the NL
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Kouzmanoff..
According to Fangraph Kouzmanoff year after year is getting better with the glove… But is going DOWN with the bat., if this pattern continue next year we might want Jack Hannahan Back
Reynolds is also getting better every year with the glove, going from butcher to average in 3 years… Reynolds bat? Good question… One thing is for sure, the power is still there…
Kouz flat out doesn't get on base
Any league. I thought he’d hit around 20-22 HRs so I was disappointed there. But a batting line of around .260/290? That’s Kouz.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Unfortunately
that doesn’t look bad with the pplayers he has hitting around him
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Kouz is a 3 WAR player year in year out
Show me how we can do better and you will have my respect, I dont see us trading for Wright or signing Beltre so he’s not a bad option. Kouz is BETTER than Reynolds get that through a lot od peoples thick skulls already. He’s also better than Mike Young, Inge, Sandoval, Encarnation, Stewart etc etc
NOTE TO ALL: please respect the numbers shown in my post before offering up opinions on worse players than him.
Kouz is a nice bat to have hitting 8th. We need to put him there all year.
1 year WAR samples aren't a perfect indicator of the future.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
What is a perfect indicator of the future? Can I subscribe to your newsletter?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Necessary?
Anyways, all I’m saying is that over the last 5 years, Beltre’s WAR has been 4.9, 3.0, 4.0, 2.5, and 7.1. BABIPs of .294, .294, .276, .301, .331. The 7.1 and .331 seem to be outliers to me. Why would we judge him based on 2010 WAR?
So basically, I see Beltre as a 4 WAR player, or 2 wins or so over Kouz coming off a career year. We’d pay top dollar for him. This was a good idea last year, when 3B was an organizational black hole. But now we have Kouz, and paying, what $15 mill (?) for that seems like a bad idea.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Ah. This makes a lot more sense than the previous post.
Thank you.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Beltre's probably looking at $14 million annual
But to the larger point, Kouz can be expected to make about $5 million next year and $7 million in 2012 (arby raises approximated). Then he hits FA. So you could make that argument that in 2011 it’s unlikely that Beltre would be worth 3 times what Kouz is making but by 2012 you’d essentially be getting the better production you’re paying for if Beltre’s 2 WAR better than Kouz.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Sure, but I'd rather spend the big bucks upgrading the OF.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions
BTW if Rosales is really healthy, he's an option at 3B
2010 WAR per 550 PA:
Rosales 3.2
Kouzmanoff 2.7
And that’s with Kevin’s +16 UZR at 3B. With any regression, Rosales just looks better.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I love Rosales,
but I worry that he wouldn’t hack it as a starter.
And regressing Kouz’s D makes sense, but I think his offense is better next year, making it close to a wash.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
So you wouldn't trade Kouzmanoff plus other stuff for an OF?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm very open to a Kouz trade.
Just that I don’t think there’s an obvious replacement for Kouz that would give us guaranteed value.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Right. Rosales would be a risk, and you'd have to depend
on Tolleson and Cardenas to back him up.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't mind seeing Tolleson or Sogard make the club as a backup IF
"Burt Reynolds witnessed the conception of his own dad, and frankly, that's what's wrong with him."- TPDMTD!
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 5, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Which other club would value Kouzmanoff as much as the A's do?
Seattle, maybe? Otherwise you’re eating a loss on the deal.
It’s not a coincidence that guys like Kouzmanoff and Jack Hannahan find their way to Oakland.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't know, but he seems like a good 2nd piece in a deal
for a team without a 3B or a team that believes in park factors, defense and/or grit — Dodgers? Cardinals? Indians? Brewers? Cubs? Marlins?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I would suggest the Dodgers but Casey Blake is signed through next year.
Pam liked my old sig better.
But isn't he terrible?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Terrible AND getting paid 5.25M!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
I wish I would have thought of this
Rosales as 3B…. his minor league track record is good, why not?
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Rosales had a nice half season
But is there any reason to think his UZR or BABIP are repeatable?
He strikes out a lot, and he doesn’t hit for enough power or take enough walks to make up for the low AVG he’ll put up.
With his linedrive rate, I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up a similar BABIP.
In the past, he’s been a high BABIP guy, with really awful years bringing his career number down. The UZR does seem unsustainable though.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
His linedrive rate (27.7%) is unsustainable
The best rate in the majors over the past three years is 23.5% (David Wright).
Right, but he's likely to be a high linedrive percentage type of guy.
So a BABIP in the .320 range wouldn’t surprise me, and wouldn’t bring his offensive value down that far.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
It'll be interesting to see Rosales' projections for 2011.
I’m fully on board the “Adam Rosales for 2B in 2011!” train (population: me), simply because it’s not like he’s wildly outperforming his MLE’s or something (IIRC they were something like .690-.710 OPS’s, but I’m not sure since milbsplits is down at the moment), and his TZ’s in MILB were always good. Combine those ideas with the fact that he’s entering his age 27 season, and I’m not sure why it’s such a longshot that Rosales is a 2.5-3 WAR 2B going forward. Certainly strikes me as a better idea than going out and throwing FA money at a guy like O-Dog, who looks to be something like a 3 WAR player in OAK, assuming he’s healthy enough for a full season (ha!) and no erosion of his 33 year old skills. Almost the exact same could be said about Ellis, frankly.
He doesn't have to sustain everything to make it worth trading
Kouzmanoff as part of an OF deal. He just has to be a 2 WAR player — which would just require staying healthy and being 2/3 as good as he was this year when he played. Even a half Win downgrade at 3B and giving up Green and Mazzaro and Brown or equivalent is worth getting a 4 WAR OF.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions
That's fair.
Still gunshy though. It’d basically be $9 million for 2 WAR in 2011, $7 million for 2 WAR in 2012, $14 million for roughly 3.5 WAR in 2013, and $14 million for roughly 3 WAR in 2014 (assuming he gets a 4 year deal, though I’m not good with that stuff).
I say 3.5 and 3 because those will be his age 33 and 34 year old seasons, and I see his defense starting to decline by then. All subject to opinion though.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I'm all for trying to get Beltre
but if it doesn’t happen I won’t even blink an eye and will be perfectly happy with Kooouz
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
You have a very good idea of what you're talking about.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions
No. I agreed with both your points:
1) Reynolds was decent but not great in the NL
2) It usually, but not always takes time to acclimate to a whole new set of pitchers and parks for a hitter
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not one for statistics
but Kouz wasn’t THAT bad with the bat (besides his love of first pitches)
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Really?
Again I don’t bother with stats much but I felt like I saw him swing through it many, many times and heard a lot of complaints about it not just on here but at the games too
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Yep
We checked the splits often on that one. Basically it was “I hate that he swings at the first pitch so much but…wow, he’s done that well when he is?”
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=kouzmke01&year=2010&t=b#count
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Maybe it was one of those things where he figured the first pitch he'd see would be the best so he was ready to go
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Thanks for the link
I’m still learning about the game so some things I say could be totally made up lOl
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Well, there are a lot of people here who are more than willing to help there
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yeah
since I’ve signed up I’ve learned a lot more. And hey I just figured out what FIP means so I’m movin on up haha
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
You're too young for VORP.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
And I'm too old. (sigh)
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Thank God for xtRA.
I may not be able to VORP anymore, but with xtRA I can still FIP and BABIP.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
and now
my brain hurts. thanks. Lol
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Everyone's better when they're swinging at the first pitch
To count among the stats, a hitter has to hit the ball into play. By definition that eliminates all swings and misses and weak foul balls.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Didn't Posnanski do something about this recently?
Everyone is about the same on every count if you exclude the people who strike out from the 2 strike counts?
I may be remembering wrong.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
The 86 wRC+ tells me that he was 14% worse than the average MLB hitter.
That’s pretty bad. It’s worse than Eric Patterson.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford
Am I the only one who cringes at the notion of the A’s signing Crawford?
Yes, he is good. He put up an OPS of .851 in a pitching friendly ball park in his age 28 season. His age 29-31 seasons will likely be good. The part that makes me cringe is not that. The part that makes me cringe is that the Yanks will throw a ton of money and years at him. For the A’s to counter that they will have an aging player who ties up a ton of money, blocks a spot that is relatively able to fill (the A’s struggles notwithstanding), and who’s game relies on speed which will diminish with age.
If the A’s were able to sign him for two to three years that would be great. That will not happen however.
Of course, this is all for not because I don’t think that he will consider us…
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 4, 2010 6:45 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I might just be making this up
but has anybody considered he might just want to stay in Tampa?
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hahahahhahahaha
ah you’re so cute…Crawford staying in Tampa Bay..heh.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
That's why I said I could be making it up
havent really looked into him at all but thought possibly since they are able to take AL East just as easily as the Yanks that he could stay..but then again..I dont research :)
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
if Crawford is ready to take a pay cut ( compared to possible deals with other teams)
then the idea that he could stay with TB is not unfathomable. But after this year we can come to the consensus that offense is a need for, not only our hometown boys, but for many other teams and teams that have deeper pockets (or more willing pockets) than TB. Crawford would have to show a tremendous amount of self-restraint to stay in TB.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
I see
thanks for the explanation. I also just remembered an article I read that no matter what happens in the post season the Rays are cutting payroll so I can see why a huge deal would be more appealing.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Crawford has pretty much said goodbye to Tampa...
"The only way I'm going to get a Gold Glove is with a can of spray paint." - Reggie Jackson
Thanks
those are some pretty telling quotes..
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
Tampa is going to let him walk. He's gonna make a ton of money (deservedly)
and they have Desmond Jennings waiting to take his place.
Pam liked my old sig better.
But Jennings was almost Tayloresque this year in AAA
I think baseball public is choosing to ignore just how much Crawford leaving will hurt the Rays next year, because everybody is so much in love with them now and nobody wants to admit it. Tentatively I think they will finish third next year behind Evil Empires, and if they have to dump a starting pitcher too and Toronto makes a splash in free agency, they could end up fourth very easily.
"Rollins helps them with the small ball when he's not in the lineup." - Joe Morgan
Jennings wasn't great in AAA, but he was always a much better
prospect than Taylor when he was healthy, which he supposedly is now, although he wasn’t this past season.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Jennings has rarely been healthy in his career
Next Travis Buck, IMO. I’m not high on him.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
True enough, but I still like him more than Taylor
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Right, but Andrew Friedman knows what he's doing.
I mean yes, losing a 6 win player is going to suck, obviously, but I won’t be surprised at all if they make a few moves to make up for it.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Well Crawford projects more like 4 than 6 WAR but the Rays
can’t be better without him. I doubt Friedman would just say goodbye to him if they had more revenues.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, their window is basically closed after this season
If I was them I’d move Garza, Shields and Niemann and reboot the rotation from the minor leagues. I’d also trade Bartlett and Upton away. Hopefully I’d get a 1B prospect like Yonder Alonso back for that so that I wouldn’t have to re-sign Pena.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'd keep Upton and Garza but Shields, Bartlett and Niemann
are unnecessary. OK, maybe Garza is too.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
And they have big time arb/contract raises to other players
and, keeping the team together is more important than retaining Crawford.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
The arb raises are true but those players are all worse than Crawford.
They’re the ones that are replaceable.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Can we please apply the same logic to Crawford coming to the A's
Then we can dispense with this totally absurd notion. He’s not coming. Let’s move on to something that is possible
No.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
He definitely WANTS to stay in Tampa,
but KNOWS that it can’t/won’t happen.
"Burt Reynolds witnessed the conception of his own dad, and frankly, that's what's wrong with him."- TPDMTD!
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 5, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Will it be a huge Tejada-like team-fail where they take themselves out of the running before it even starts? The A’s could have had Tejada had they not been such boneheads prior to his last season here.
If the difference between what he gets and what the team would have been willing to pay is huge, then it can’t/won’t happen. If the difference is small, and he leaves anyway, then he wasn’t all that sincere about how much he wanted to stay.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Wow, really. Still?
Do you understand that if the A’s had kept Tejada they would not have had anybody to play third base?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Chavez?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
You mean if attendance had stayed at 2.2 million instead of affording only
one with an attendance of 1.4 million? What you mean is that they wouldn’t have been able to afford both plus Kendall, Kotsay and Loiaza. I could have lived with that.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
In a later interview, Beane said...
…that if they had known what Tejada would have eventually ended up signing for, that they may have been able to work that also, and they would never have dismissed him outright so early and they would have made an honest effort to sign him. The implication being, that they might have indeed been able to do both.
The “not able to afford both” was based in part on Tejada’s original demands and expectations, which were far above what eventual reality came to be. Yes, I understand that very well.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
Yeah, I can't believe that they didn't ask Tejada to take a $30M homedown discount.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Or even what they paid Kendall, Kotsay and Loiaza
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Kendall's money was the combination of Redman and TARE though.
but yes I absolutely hated the Loaiza signing, even though it was in 2006 and basically had nothing at all to do with the money that wasn’t available in 2002.
Pam liked my old sig better.
They didn't need Redman or TARE either.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually they pretty desperately needed a closer after getting Foulked.
But, I mean, do you have a point to make or are you just going to say they should have kept Tejada, Chavez, and a bunch of scrubs?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Kendall, Kotsay, Loaiza, TARE and Redman were scrubs
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Kotsay was good, he was just injured a lot.
The rest, yeah.
but Kendall was gritty.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Kotsay was good till the extension. If Tejada's presence
meant not extending Kotsay, they’d have been better off. Kendall was gritty, but I’d still rather have Tejada. Also they wouldn’t have had Street, but I’d still rather have had Tejada.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure. Especially given that Crosby was a humungous gigantic bust
and Chavez turned zombie.
Hindsight is easy. I’m simply saying at the time, the younger player who had been just as good if not better offensively AND was knockin back gold gloves every year AND was willing to sign a hometown discount deal AND with a potential replacement for SS waiting in the wings….
Chavez was a fairly obvious pick to keep.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Sure, but only if you assume that they needed a proven
veteran at C, CF, SP and RP. Beane’s supposed to be good at getting adequate players on the cheap. Heck, they had Crosby as trade bait. It’s a lot easier to get a bunch of 2.5 WAR players in cheap trades than to get a rookie to replace a 4 WAR player in Tejada. I’m afraid they’re making the same mistake now with Crawford. I’d rather they signed Crawford, than sign a bunch of mid-priced FAs in the coming 6 years.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
That wasn't the point, but I think you know that.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
at 18 million yes
He is a very good player but I don’t see him hitting in Oakland and costing as much as a 40 homerun guy is not worth it. Yanks lose in the playoffs he will be in pin stripes.
Yankees don't really need him. They already have three 4 WAR players in OF. They need
pitching. Lots of pitching.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh. And a SS.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions
But they will sign him anyway
because that is what they do… and we come in and scoop up swisher!!!!!!
that would be fun.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Indeed.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
ha, beat me to it
would love to take Swish off their hands. of course he had a career year and became a fan favorite, so it may be hard to pull it off.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Yes please.
Yes yes yes yes.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I'd be on board with backloading the contract and just acknowledgedly punting contention after 2013 or so
I don’t see much if any hope of contending by then anyway, so why pretend? Let the good times roll.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If they did that he wouldn't have much trade value after 2013. Of course they could increase
that trade value by kicking in some money, but then how is that better than a consistent annual amount?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It's not
It’s just time-delayed. Basically deferred money.
There’s no magic fiscal bullet here, it’s just shifting the cost to years when the payroll is likely to be low because the team is rebuilding anyway.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
True, it's something for the lawyers and accountants to work out.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Why not Werth? Seems more like their type of player and would presumably give them the same(ish) production.
He doesn't seem to be quite as good as Crawford, and if the team is conceding years in the future,
they might as well get the best available player in the present.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
The Coliseum is also tougher on RH power hitters than LH line drive hitters with speed
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Really? Seems like a more complete hitter to me.
Higher wOBA consistently, opposite field power, and controls the strike zone better. Crawford’s walk rate is a tad below average.
Crawford may be a slightly better player overall due to defense, age, and speed, but I don’t know… less of a commitment and probably easier to trade at the ‘13 or ’14 deadline if the A’s aren’t in contention.
here is his hit tracker page
He seems to hit home runs everywhere.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
check this out, though, in light of the Cust argument above
It seems he had a terrible year with RISP. I know, SSS and all that, but still…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 6, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I too cringe at the idea of Crawford
Unless we got him relatively cheap, which ain’t gonna happen. His best days are over and the worst thing we can do is throw a ton of money at another aging veteran.
The greenmachine
Aging veteran? He'll be 29 next year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
"Aging veteran"
Code for “I don’t want him”
All FA are at least in their upper 20s. At least Crawford is athletic.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Uh...
6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)
signed extension with Arizona 3/3/10
$1.25M signing bonus
10:$0.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Is that too much?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
He means not FA class of 2014
FA class of 2016 at 28 years of age.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Oh. In that case I want him too
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Hence my "All FA are at least in their upper 20s"
Which, I think, is what brought up Upton
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hmmm
He was miserable at the plate for 3 months, then a total god in the last one (That was a 988 OPS for those counting). You gotta think Ellis’s Sept was a clear fluke and he’s still not going to $6MM on the open market.
You don’t gotta think that at all. His total season shakes out the way it shakes out. The fallacy would be to say that because he OPS’d .988 in September, he’ll OPS .988 forever. But to look at his whole season and take it for what it is, an often-streaky but on the whole productive for a second baseman season, is to me the most logical response.
You give Hudson way too much credit for things you don’t give Ellis credit for. Yes, Hudson has had injury troubles in the past and this season; the exact same thing is true of Ellis. Yes, Hudson had one (fluky, if the past is any indication) good season on defense; Ellis’ defense is still sterling, if you use the three-year UZR average.
at this point only Adrian Beltre is available and an upgrade, unless you want to overpay for David Wright.
We’re going to overpay for Beltre, too, you know. In fact, you basically advocate overpaying for Beltre at the end of this entry. If we can’t get Beltre by overpaying, I’m happy overpaying for Wright if we can get it done.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 4, 2010 7:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Ellis wasn't "often streaky"
He was horrific until September and then he turned into Pujols.
The fallacy would be to think he’s going to do THAT again.
Pam liked my old sig better.
That part where he turns into Pujols...
Oh I wish! Utley 2.0
100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.
Yes. I'd rather have Utley at 2B than Pujols....or would I?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Im happy with either one.
I just dont see it happening.
Hudson had injuries that directly effect his hitting. Ellis had a .450 BABIP in Sept too. A healthy Hudson is a 4+ WAR player, no matter what Ellis isnt sniffing that next year.
How is Hudson any better than Ellis?
2010 WAR
Ellis 3.2, Hudson 3.2
Career WAR
Ellis 2.8 per 550 PA, Hudson 2.5 per 550 PA
Hudson is 6 months younger.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Orlando Hudson hasn't had a 4 WAR season his entire career.
Even when he was a ripper of a defender. Also, considering UZR heavily builds park factors into the equation, taking first year park numbers entirely at face value seems foolish. Hudson -10 in 08, and -2.8 in 09 per UZR. Mark Ellis is, and always has been, a clearly better player than Orlando Hudson.
by AgitationStation on Oct 5, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point on the first year park numbers, though BB-Ref did just update theirs
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
also you left out a trade option for the outfield.
Matt Kemp.
I dunno why people think Choo will be available. He’s awesome and he’s dirt cheap, it would take a monumental overpay to acquire him.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I'm in favor of a monumental overpay.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions
With this team's luck, he would then be forced to leave for his remaining 2 years and serve in the military.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Stupid luck
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm also more focused on Kemp because I think he'll cost significantly less to acquire
Pam liked my old sig better.
Ya but he's more like a 2.5-3 WAR player than Choo, who's a 4 WAR guy with a bullet.
Plus the Coliseum is tougher on RH power hitters than LH power hitters. OTOH if they can get both, I’m all for it.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
With this team’s luck, he would then be forced to leave for his remaining 2 years and serve in the military.
… as a chaplain.
"The only way I'm going to get a Gold Glove is with a can of spray paint." - Reggie Jackson
I’m pretty sure he’ll grant me a pardon…
"The only way I'm going to get a Gold Glove is with a can of spray paint." - Reggie Jackson
by the_rozeboom on Oct 5, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
His availability has been discussed around baseball if Cleveland can't sign him to an extension this offseason...
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I WANT DUNNNNNNNNNNN
Rajai Davis is quicker than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions
True. He's only good at taking close pitches for strick 3
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I love strikeouts though
I hate when players ground into double plays more than anything ever. Striking out is twice as good as GIDPing because you waste more pitches and only make 1 out. In closing, I hate Kurt Suzuki and Orlando Cabrera.
What about Ryan Sweeney?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Carlos Pena
Just throwing this out there. He might fly below the radar this offseason because he hit below .200 but his BABIP was only .221. There has to be some bad luck in there. Then again, we already have a 1B and I wouldn’t see the A’s making a move for a DH only, well, Dunn being the exception if he is willing to DH. That and I don’t see a pressing need to make an upgrade over Cust as opposed to Sweeney….
But then again, Pena could fall through the cracks and be a late signing..
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 6:59 AM PDT reply actions
I'm OK with Pena on the cheap, but I'm not sure he's any better than Cust.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I am not sure that he is either
I was just throwing that out there. Its a maybe depending on how things pan out.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
He did drop off a lot this year. Cust didn't.
I’d rather they had a laser focus on the OF.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Javier Vázquez
I know that he has previously stated that he only wants to play on the East coast but I imagine that a lot of teams will be turned off by the much hyped struggles that he had in NY. Only, his season was not all that bad and he is only one season removed from a super super 2009 season in ATL. He might be another good pickup that could fly under the radar.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 5, 2010 7:21 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yes, but he'd probably prefer the Orioles, Tigers, or Royals over Oakland
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure you disagree, but the more you use WAR to make your points...
…the less value I think WAR has as a useful stat.
In your post, according to WAR, so many (not all) of our players are already in the top 1/2 or top 1/3 of players at their positions. Yet, we BARELY squeaked in at .500. Granted, you do say “no way to upgrade”, regarding unavailable better players, but with the examples you give there are only a few better anyway.
Either you’re not using WAR correctly, or WAR has less value than many people think. At the very least, I think the biggest fault to these posts is in using WAR as a “one stop shopping” predictive stat.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
I think the way PL78 wrote his piece handicaps his argument
He did (aside form C) individual performance appraisals using WAR for all the infield positions and Cust. He then lumped all the outfielders together, which kind of muted the impact of how little production the A’s got out of their corner OFers. 3.3 of the 4.8 WAR PL78 credited to the OF came from Crisp in CF. The A’s essentially got replacement level production from LF and RF… which is a problem. I think the message would have had more impact if PL78 had continued to break down the WAR by position.
Seeing a couple less than 1 scores would have highlighted the problem areas.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 5, 2010 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is that he's right.
If you add up total WAR for 2010, you roughly get a .500 team. Believe it or not, the position players were above average, when you include defense. The pitching was in the bottom third of the league. Now, the run prevention was very very good (best ERA in the AL), but most of that was the defense, which comes from position player WAR, not pitching WAR.
This makes no sense to me. The counterintuitive is always wrong.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Haven't you heard? If it feels right, it is right.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
The whole purpose of analytics
is to uncover insights that are not obvious. This is one of the things that gave the A’s an advantage a decade ago. Unfortunately, the rest of the league read Moneyball and now everyone is using advanced analytics.
Related to that, I keep hearing Forst’s name mentioned on NY sports radio for the Mets job.
Good. I liked DePodesta better anyway. In fact I'd hire him and promote Beane to President or something
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
This.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Not to mention the Coliseum greatly reduces offense
And the A’s pitchers (and hitters) played half their games there.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Another reason to discount single year park factors.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Interesting and unexpected
But we’d have to get into a meta-park factor factor discussion from here.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
nooooooo!!!
actually… might be educaaattioonaaallll!!!!
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 7, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
We are not going meta over who has the better park factor numbers!
The monster at the end of this blog.
wow
This is actually pretty interesting, re: the fielding making a run-of-the-mill pitching staff look better than they are.
I suppose also why some have advocated picking up a pitcher.
If we can upgrade at 5th starter (preferably internally) that should probably be good for a couple wins.
From the recent comments by Beane/Wolff, etc., I think Beane is pretty much set on Carter in LF (unless we can get a great LF and then he will probably jettison Cust and go with Carter at DH) and Crisp in CF (although the guy has 2 surgically repaired shoulders, not sure how they will hold up over another season). Is there a decent CF upgrade available? Rajai is a capable backup but if Crisp gets injured, I don’t think we want Rajai there all season long.
Of course, as many people have pointed out, RF is our problem spot. We have to get a quality RF. Werth!
by Billy Frijoles on Oct 5, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Or, an option that's in between those two:
He’ll sign a big-ticket FA and retain Cust about $3.75M, pushing Carter to AAA for an additional year to evaluate his defense and allow him to continue to mature as a hitter.
Then in 2012, when Cust is more expensive (~$5M) and Carter has improved, he jettisons Cust and allows Carter to get most of his at-bats as the primary DH in Oakland and the rest as a part-time corner OFer, minimizing the defensive cost that Carter is to the team.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 5, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Ummm
WAR gives us ~0 WAR from our COF. We missed the playoffs by 9 games. We also didn’t play our best team at the beginning of the season.
If we turn one of those zeros into an elite player (say Crawford at 5 WAR), the other into a productive player (say 3 WAR, which a healthy Sweeney could do easily, but will be difficult if he’s perma-broken) then we just need to let Cust hit a full year and we’ve added our 9 wins.
All WAR says is that we have a good defensive team and enough hitting in the infield to look elsewhere for upgrades.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yes, we're 2 All-Star COF from contention. It's doable.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Plus I think we can hope within reason that with a healthy Anderson
and improvement from the SPs we could get somewhere between a 2-4 WAR bump from them.
Obviously, 4 is quite on the high side, but 2 is very reasonable…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
OTOH Cahill could be worse and somebody else could get hurt.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Worse than a 2.2 WAR
Then he shouldn’t be in the rotation anyway if he is worse.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Not 2.2 WAR by FIP, but 4.1 WAR by ERA and team defense adjustment
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
BBR's WAR is by ERA I'm assuming...
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes and they apply a pro rata adjustment for all pitchers based on the team defense stats by Total Zone
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Even without WAR, we all pretty much know we need better COFers.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
You can say that again.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
We should wage WAR against our COFers
Do I win anything for making the 1 millionth WAR pun?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
by travdog6 on Oct 5, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bacon wrapped ire
I'm here to talk about Don
by OptimistPrime on Oct 5, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
(I'll bite)
ABSOLUTELY NUTHIN’
I'm here to talk about Don
by OptimistPrime on Oct 5, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Say it again
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
My only point is that the answer is not "WAR is overvaluing us"
It’s that WAR is clearly identifying our weaknesses.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
You can say that again
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
(scratches head....smiles)
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I am actually OK with keeping our infield intact
including Kouz.
I would like to see Carter moved to DH, and power brought in at the corners through trade or FA, and Sweeney on the bench as backup.
I'm here to talk about Don
This is fine, but the trade for a Corner OF might include Sweeney
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 6, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Beltre Would Be A Nightmare
Unless You sign him to a 1 year contract, maybe hed be motivated to play then. Last time he had a year this good, Mariners signed him to a long term deal, and he went out and was an above average player.
Im just not on board with throwing the bank at an above average player, since above average is better than what we have. IF hell sign for a decent amount, them im all for it. But giving him a multiyear, high dollar contract would be a mistake.
I agree
But giving him a multiyear, high dollar contract would be a mistake.
I say let the Slenga/Red Sox/STL/ATL’s of the world make that mistake
I say keep Kouz for another year and upgrade the COF’s, (sign Porno Magg’s for 2/14-18mil with a club option for 2013 & sign/trade for one of CC, Werth, Choo, Kemp, Luke Scott or Hunter Pence)
"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010
Whoa, never heard "nightmare" used before to describe a guy who hit significantly better on the road than in Boston and is reknown for being one of the top 2 or 3 defensive 3B in MLB.
His WAR in Seattle was: 2.5, 4.9, 3.0. 4.0, 2.5. I can see Kouz being the 2.5-3.0 guy, but unless he magically hits significantly better he wont touch the 4-5 and even the 7-10 WARs Beltre has actually put up.
I think Beltre is foregone conclusion to be in slegnA next season, FWIW.
If Kouz is 2.5 and Beltre is 5 (which is not a forgone conclusion)
then you’re paying 14 million for 2.5 WAR.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Money at this point, isnt a factor.
We are essentially in win-now mode over the next 3 years. We should buy upgrades wherever possible and trade for them if the price is right (Its even the title of the post!)
Um, yes it is.
It always is for a team like the A’s.
If you’re paying 14 million for 2.5 wins, that’s 14 million you won’t have to get the remaining 6-7 wins you need to match Texas. And since the A’s probably have around 22 million to work with (and Lew has been guarded about whether he would even be willing to spend all of that), that leaves you around 8 million to get the remaining 6-7 wins.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 6, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Disagree
Lew has money to burn and has said before he will spend whatever Billy wants. Beane tried to lock up Beltre. Chapman, Furcal & Scutaro.
We are not a low budget team. Get that 2001 mindset out of your head.
lol ok
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Yes we are a low budget team
What you’re saying right here makes no sense.
Lew may have money, but it’s not to burn. Lew Wolff is the epitome of an owner who buys a team simply to make money, and he will not put a lot of money into this team unless he is certain that he will make that money back and then some.
And “get the 2001 mindset out of your head”? WHAT?!?
2002: 28th
2003: 23rd
2004: 16th
2005: 22nd
2006: 21st
2007: 17th
2008: 28th
2009: 26th
2010: 27th
And yes, we did try and get Beltre, Chapman, Furcal and Scutaro. But one at a time. We weren’t throwing money at all of them hoping they’d all sign and suddenly our payroll sits at $100M.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 6, 2010 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Lew probably has a boatload of money BECAUSE he doesn't throw it down a rat hole.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
I do not understand why people who consider winning to be a waste of money are baseball fans.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
You're assuming again.
Personally, I would love nothing more than for the owner of my team to do whatever it takes to win. I believe that if I were an owner, I would be rich enough that I could absorb some losses (to a point), because for me it would be a labor of love rather than merely another business.
Having said that, I do NOT expect a person to lose money purely for my benefit, or anyone else’s. That’s an individual choice.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
OK. So why are you a baseball fan?
If you don’t have any expectations of your team’s owner, then why would you be a fan of the team? That’s like saying, “I don’t expect a player to go out on the field and risk injury to himself, so I’m fine with it if he just wants to sit in the clubhouse with a fake injury. I mean, that’s an individual choice.”
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 7, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Players make an informed decision to assume the risk of injury when they sign a contract
Failure to take the field is a breach of contract. Owners are not contractually obligated to lose money every year to field a contender (which would be impossible anyway, as someone has to finish last).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2010 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Where do you even get $22MM from??
Wolffe could easily throw down $100MM this offseason, no problem. The man is wealthy.
He's not that wealthy.
John Fisher could; Lew Wolff could not.
Even for Fisher it would take some doing. I doubt he could make that much cash liquid in a big hurry, but with some planning and arranging he could get it done on a workable timetable. It would knock down his net worth by about 10%, which is not trivial, but it’s doable.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No he couldn't. Wolff's made his money in commercial real estate
It’s been in the news, some, lately, real estate, hasn’t it? Foreclosures? Empty malls? It’s only the reason why we aren’t going to have (thankfully, because it would have been a gigantic, historic fail) the Fremont A’s.
The A’s are probably the single most productive of Wolff’s many investments, and all his others are shrinking in value…
It’s never the value of the total wealth, which is mostly illiquid, it’s the trend…
And Wolff’s trend is down…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Oct 8, 2010 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions
As I wrote earlier, Arte Moreno is going all in this offseason
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/angels-owner-prepares-to-spend.html
I can see them getting Beltre and being in the top 3 for Crawford. I think we can officially bow out of the Carl-stakes this year. Yanks/RS/Phily/LAA all want him, why on earth would he pick us over them???
beltre can just about measure his angel uniform at this point.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
LOL even more
If he latches on elsewhere and absolutely rakes…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 6, 2010 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think I've ever felt bad for the Angels for on field incidents
but damn do I feel for Brandon Wood.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Absolutely
Plus he was just quoted as saying he wanted to be somewhere comfortable for his family as he was “selfish” last offseason for choosing Boston.
His family lives in LA.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 6, 2010 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that's about 50% that Arte Moreno really is
more wiling to spend, and 50% that he’s just a hell of a lot better at talking to the media than Lew Wolff is.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
*Wonders how many comments there have been on AN regarding Jack Cust*
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
If only those comments were people who bought A's tickets.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 6, 2010 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, those are the commens that included the word "Cust"
However I’m sure there are quite a bit more with Cust as the subject
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Is this out of the realm of possibility?
- trading one of our young pitchers for young stud hitter?
say, Cahill for Ryan Braun? Does this kind of trade ever happen? And if it did, would you do it?
Braun was just a placeholder
for an idea. I used him b/c I think he could actually be obtainable.
Most agree that we need to upgrade at CoF and possibly 3rd base. I doubt Zimmerman, Wright, or Longoria are available, but if they were, I would trade any of our big three for one of them. Is there any young, cost-controlled, stud hitter CoF that the A’s could get straight-up for one of our top three pitchers and would anyone make that trade?
OMG Id do that trade in a nanosecond
Brewers probably wouldnt though. Braun is taking over for Prince at 1B when Prince leaves.
Well, I was talking about his OF defense
And I’m happy with Barton at 1B right now.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yeah me too, but Brauns LF defense is just average.
I honestly expect about the same out of Carter next year.
Mat Gamel has to go somewhere.
Unless both Prince and Gamel are traded for pitchers (which makes a lot of sense, actually, since they play in the NL)
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Trade for Gamel
I’ve been thinking about Gamel alot. I’ve read that his defensive skills (strong arm, bad footwork) would be best suited for RF. In fact, the Brewers have talked about putting him there and moving Hart or Braun to 1B if they trade Fielder. The problem for them is, even if they get what they want for Fielder, they need multiple SP’s, and are unlikely to get more than one good one in a Fielder deal. So why not offer them Mazzaro for Gamel? The A’s might have to throw in a side-piece, maybe Donaldson, but I doubt it would take a whole lot more, since Gamel is 25 and still unproven in the majors.
So, what about this plan:
Mazzaro and Donaldson for Gamel
Sign Beltre
Sign Kuroda
Crisp
Barton
Beltre
Cust
Carter
Gamel
Suzuki
Ellis
Pennington
Anderson
Gio
Cahill
Braden
Kuroda
The COF defense would be really bad, but Braden is the only real fly ball guy. Maybe you sit Gamel and Carter when he pitches?
I can see Prince and Hart being traded this year.
You know a real dumb team is going to try and get Hart, and Prince is as toast in Milwaukee. Gamel and Braun will most likely be in LF & 1B for them next year.
I think the Braves try for Hart.
Because they need outfielders besides Heyward and have a bazillion pitchers.
Or the Phillies. Brown clearly, clearly needs more time in AAA (I’d keep him down for most of 2011), and Ruben Amaro is known for overpaying for marginal improvements.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Amaro is really a not good GM
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
this
I can’t wait for the Phillies to start cratering thanks to his horrid moves.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
He really traded Cliff Lee so he could sign Placido Polanco.
If you believe the “Lee needed to be traded to free up money” quote. They would have won 120 games this year with Lee-Halladay as a 1-2, and had enough to trade for Oswalt too. All 3 of the prospects they got for Lee flopped terribly this year FWIW.
He gave up far too much for Oswalt too, why on earth do you trade the cost-controlled-and-awesome Happ for Roy? I guess you could ask Beane the same about Cargo for Holliday….
Halladay was also willing to sign a long term contract. Lee was not.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor
Pam liked my old sig better.
Yeah, that's utterly ridiculous
105? I could see that. 110? Maybe, with a great deal of luck. 120? Not a freakin’ prayer.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
So you're saying you think
Cliff Lee is NOT a 23 WAR player?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Cliff Lee=LeBron James.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 11, 2010 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Assuming he voids his no trade clause..
A trade of Kouz & one of the A’s young pitchers (Cahill/Anderson) for Aramis Ramirez and Randy Wells would probably be one the Cubs make. Ramirez’s 2012 team option becomes a player option if he is traded, and it is worth exercising, I believe appx. 15M. Anderson would be a large price to pay, but you would be getting back a servicable 5th starter and an impact hitter, when healthy. Given Brett’s injury troubles of his own, would you consider this trade?
lol Cubs fan
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 8, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Aramis Ramirez has no value as a trade chip
I expect he would easily clear waivers. The idea of trading him for one of the A’s’ cost-controlled young pitchers is literally laughable.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't trade Kouz straight up for Aramis Ramirez
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
+1
2010 WAR Kouz 2.9, Ramirez 0.9 (and 2.6 in 2009).
Wouldn’t even be a hard trade to turn down. It’s been 3 years since Ramirez posted a better season than Kouz.
Three years is misleading
The last two seasons Kouz has had the better WAR. Playing time for Ramirez has been an issue as well. But, I agree with you regarding any potential trade once injury history, defense, and salary are taken into consideration. If I were the decisionmaker in this scenario, I don’t do that deal.
by LowcountryJoe on Oct 9, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
How is it misleading at all?
its making a guess at 2011 production based on the past. In the past Ramirez has been hurt. Pretending that he wasn’t doesn’t make sense for projecting talent.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
oh that makes more sense, i missed that with the initial post and your phrasing
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I have one of those Neifi t shirts
And I don’t think that he is great.
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 11, 2010 3:55 AM PDT up reply actions
There's a Neifi T-shirt?
I want. Always a good time to add to the ol’ ironic hipster T-shirt collection.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Oct 11, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
http://andrewfalconer.com/neifi/
http://andrewfalconer.com/neifi/
Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964
by Athletics fan and runner on Oct 18, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

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