A's Secure No. 18 (or 14) Overall Pick in 2011 Draft
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 3:12 PM PDT
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Print(This post will be updated later in the evening, pending result of the A's game).
The final day of the regular season had some significant draft and free-agency implications for quite a few non-playoff teams, including the A's.
The Detroit Tigers' win early Sunday ensured that they would end up with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2011 Draft, having finished with the 15th-best record in MLB. The Tigers finished the season at 81-81, and held a tiebreaker over the A's because the Tigers finished with a superior record the season before (2009). Thus, regardless of the outcome of the A's game Sunday afternoon, when the A's took the field Sunday they were assured of having a protected 2011 first-round draft pick, even if they signed a good free agent such as Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, or Jorge De La Rosa this offseason.
The Tigers' win locked the A's into a draft pick somewhere between No. 14 to No. 18, all of which would be protected.
In other MLB action, the Marlins, Angels, and Dodgers all won as well. This meant that each of those three teams finished the year at 80-82, and all three of them held tiebreakers over the A's, because each of them finished 2009 with a better record than the A's as well.
Thus, if A's were to lose their final game of the year and finished 80-82, they would slide in front of the Marlins, Angels, and Dodgers in the draft order...and they'd even slide in front of Milwaukee's No. 15 overall compensation pick for the Brewers' failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Dylan Covey.
If the A's were to win their final game of the year, then the results of the Marlins, Angels and Dodgers games would all be irrelevant to the A's - the A's would finish a game ahead of each of them in the standings, at 81-81, and thus would clinch second-place in the AL West, and the No. 18 overall pick.
Now, here's how all this affects free agency:
If the Tigers were to sign an elite Type A free agent this offseason - and they'll be looking to upgrade some of the same positions the A's need to - they would now need to give up the No. 19 overall pick in the draft. The Tigers have shown a willingness to do that before - just last year, they forfeited the No. 17 overall pick to sign Type A FA closer Jose Valverde.
But if the A's were to sign an elite Type A free agent, they would not have to give up their No. 18 overall pick - they would instead give up their second-rounder, which will end up being approximately pick No. ~65, because there are typically about 15-20 sandwich picks between the first and the second rounds.
One could argue that this gives the A's a small competitive advantage in free agency this offseason, because it's obviously less of a hit to forfeit the No. 65 overall pick than it is to forfeit the No. 19 overall pick.
My larger point is, this is the A's best window to sign an elite free agent for the next half decade, because this team is on an upswing. Even with the current talent and no additions, this team is likely to finish in the top half of the standings for the next several years, which would mean that their first-round picks would not be protected on the next several future FA markets.
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Looks like we're picking 18th....
C’mon Beane/Wolff. No excuses, we need one of Werth/Crawford.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 3, 2010 4:25 PM PDT reply actions 13 recs
Man, if I could rec this comment a hundred times I would.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
By "competitive advantage"...
One could argue that this gives the A’s a small competitive advantage in free agency this offseason, because it’s obviously less of a hit to forfeit the No. 65 overall pick than it is to forfeit the No. 19 overall pick.
…I’m presuming you mean that the team has more options to sign AND draft. Not that any potential FA would necessarily care or be swayed by that.
I do like this, btw. I agree that this is the year to take advantage of what may be the last opportunity to do both.
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981
What he means by it is that the price to the A's of a Type A free agent is lower than the price to the Tigers
Hence the A’s can (economically efficiently) outbid the Tigers.
Of course, the free agent might take a worse offer, or he might be worth so much more to the other team that they’ll outbid the A’s anyway, but at least it boosts chances.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
First non-losing season in 4 years...
Players like money but they also like to win. A .500 season shows progress and gives the A’s yet another (admittedly small) advantage if/when they pursue FA talent.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Agreed
We are clearly in a “adding 5 wins from a corner OFer makes us a contender” situation. Carter is looking g-o-o-d so Im thinking he adds at least 2.5-3.5 WAR next year, if Werth or Crawford can come in and give us a 5.0, with a healthier pitching staff (Anderson, Outman, Bailey Weurtz & Devine) and we are a 90 win team.
I agree that Carter is looking quite a bit better,
but I also seem to recall some saying about counting chickens. (Hey, it could be worse— he could be Brandon Wood!*)
Right now it’s hard to call him one of the 3 best outfielders on the team (even among the current, rather lame, crew). That might change by next April, or it might not.
*I know this is off-topic, but it’s so amazing it has to be commented on. Brandon Wood just finished a season of 243 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 0. His slash line was .146/.174/.208, with a 6/71 ratio of walks to strikeouts.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Having looked further at the numbers,
I’m going farther. The team cannot start him at outfield next season. That would be a defensive disaster.
His role on the 2011 team should be strictly limited to DHing when Cust is hurt, ineffective or forced into the field by injuries to the corner outfielders.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think it's too early to say that definitively.
I think we have enough information to know he’s bad defensively, but not enough to know how bad. His sample size is tiny. He hasn’t been playing the position very long, not even in Sacramento. He’s relatively young. He’s going to play it some more in Venezuela over the winter.
I think it’s safe to say he’ll never be good at defense, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll remain atrociously bad or bring himself up to just kinda bad.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Well, I disagree
I don’t think the sample size is that small, at least not for some of the component tools.
The glove tool won’t play, we already know that. He’ll be lucky to only be a Cust-level adventure out there. People are saying his arm is only OK for left and fringy in right. He might improve his range some, but how much improvement can we reasonably project? Generally players get worse on defense, not better.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're right on the bad defense part
But, we need him to play 150+ games next year. So, if push comes to shove, I think we’ll end up seeing him out there to have his bat in the lineup. Then, pray that he doesn’t embarrass himself.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 3, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
That might make more sense if the A's were throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks
But no responsible GM should ever go into a supposedly “competitive” season relying on a player who could be 3 or 4 wins worse than replacement level as a starter.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Unless we sign Crawford, in all likelihood we're looking at picking up a guy like Dunn
Who’s also a bad defender. With Carter and Dunn vying for the same spot in the lineup (and the A’s probably keeping Barton at 1B), what’s the ideal situation?
For the record, I’m not sure Carter is -42 bad in LF.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
He's not
No one is that bad, except maybe Brad Hawpe, because there’s no limit to how bad Brad Hawpe can be.
He is likely somewhere between -10 and -30. With the positional adjustment, though, he’d have to be league-average or better with the bat to even be a replacement level talent right now, and much better than average to be a player worthy of starting on a notional contender. If he actually (gasp) struggles with the stick in his freshman year, he could singlehandedly tank the team’s chances of success.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You didn't answer my question, though
If we sign Dunn, Werth, Ordonez, Matsui or any other all hit-no glove guy, where do they play? Where does Carter play? It seems like no matter what we do, we have some level of -10 to -30 suck in a COF position.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I know, I know... Crawford
I just don’t see it happening man. Color me surprised if it does.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
or a trade for Kemp or something.
I’m just saying, it’s quite clear that there just won’t be room for a third all bat/no glove hitter assuming both Cust and Trogdor are on the team, and I think that Billy and Forst are smarter than going out and signing a guy who honestly won’t have a spot.
This assumes the roster stays relatively static.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Count me as on the Kemp bandwagon
Been saying it for about a month. I just don’t know what Coletti will want in return.
As long as Kemp doesn’t play CF… his UZR there this year is -24.8. Yipes. COF looks average though, but in far fewer chances.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
ha!
because there’s no limit to how bad Brad Hawpe can be
That’s a sweet PT line
If Pennington manages 17 HRs, I’ll vow to consume an article of clothing to achieve a humorous effect --Joey C.
move Barton to third. Put Carter at first. Package Kouz along with something or several somethings
to the Dodgers for Kemp.
Sign Crawford.
Also shut up about Barton’s D at 3B and Carter’s at 1B because they will both be awesome just like in MVP Baseball 2005. That is all.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I'd be down with that :)
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 3, 2010 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Mike you forgot the most important move:
Cust to SS!
Git ’er done Billy
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Yes, I've been saying this all along.
Carter has no actual defensive skills. The only reason anyone thinks he can play left is because of his athleticism, which far from guarantees competency (ask the Brewers how long they have waited, and are still waiting, for Ryan Braun’s athleticism to translate).
If by some minor miracle he improves from a Custean level of defense to a -10 level after this offseason + spring training (I doubt it, since he’s shown little discernible improvement at first base after three years there), he’ll still need to be around +15 with the bat to be even league average.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 3, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions
But he is young enough to develop those defensive skills
Time and work effort could improve his outfield defense. He had hard hands at 1B, that’s not so much an issue in the outfield. I’m not saying it will happen (Braun is an excellent example) just that it’s too early to conclude that it won’t happen.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Nothing's definitive for sure.
After all, Jose Bautista went from a career high of 16 home runs to 54 this year. I’m curious to see just how much improvement Carter can make after one offseason.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
You won't like the answer you get on Braun
Good jumps, great range and he catches the ball when he gets to it. Its funny you use the word “discernible” from staring at a Fangraphs page. Playing good defense and getting a good UZR are two distinct things.
... what?
UZR and run prevention are directly correlated. They’re not two distinct things.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
NO PAUL YOU DON'T GET IT. UZR IS MADE UP BY IDIOTS WHO DON'T *WATCH* THE GAMES
oh.
wait, what? UZR is calculated by watching every ball hit and recording that? Huh. nevermind.
Pam liked my old sig better.
A profoundly lame and asinine straw man
Do you know how UZR is calculated? No. Do you know who does it? No. Is it filled with known flaws. Yes. The reason for religious belief in it? I don’t know.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He kinda just explained how UZR is calculated...
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
That's not even a beginning of evaluating
how its created. Beyond the numerous potential biases in its collection, the calcualation is UNKNOWN.
But your opinion is based on your completely subjective feelings about an even-more-limited set of observations
We don’t know you, either, and your methodology isn’t any better than UZR’s is it?. Why should any of us believe JetSam instead of UZR?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
All feelings are subjective
The feelings of the people who watch a video monitor and judge which artificial zone a ball landed in are subjective. If you want to believe in something loaded with flaws and doesn’t seem to make an effort to approach it scientifically, knock yourself out. You can also believe that toothpaste X is better at something or Kleenex is softer or you can tell what sort of a human someone is by the pattern of bumps on their head.
You may not know useful objective data about toothpaste X
But you can measure it against toothpaste Y, Z, G, H, B, C, D and so on. If, after brushing teeth with all 8, more people report than X leaves their teeth cleaner, I’d rather use X than the others. That’s a crude analogy of UZR to teeth cleaning, but I think you get the picture.
It’s a developing stat. I was against it before, but I’ve realized it’s a hell of a lot better than eyeballing it and its application is way more logical.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's what UZR doesn't do
and for what its worth, the subjective sense of cleanliness isn’t the same as cleanliness.
I don’t get the logic thing. Its a crude estimate that people adhere to religiously. It won’t develop once the data from cameras begins to give accurate information. The brand name may live on, but it won’t be the same.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again, it is directly and expressly correlated with giving up fewer runs
Verbiage notwithstanding, it works and your observations don’t.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Again
no correlation has been demonstrated including by Lichtman or whatever “Tiger’s” real name is. Arrogance notwithstanding, the people who create it change it based on observations and don’t claim what you claim.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure it has
http://img.imgcake.com/defenseandfip.jpg
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm hardly a stats apologist,
but I can’t say I’ve noticed people here “adhering religiously” to UZR.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
when you eat this wafer it becomes the body of data?
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
It REPRESENTS the body of data you mean
Heretic.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
So you don't believe in transinformatiation, then?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Not only that
I’ll wage unending war against those who say otherwise
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But JetSam, your comments about Braun are exactly the same type of thing
You’re not arguing against phrenology. You’re just claiming to be a better phrenologist, as an individual, than the group phrenologists who put UZR together.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Oct 4, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly?
Judging athletic performance is the same as using something that provides no information?
Beyond that, even if the data were perfect, and there is nothing to show that it is even crudely accurate, that doesn’t mean that it would produce an accurate result.
it is dude
go to fangraphs and look for the UZR explanation. It ain’t perfect, but it’s probably better than eyeballing it.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
God I've read the shit at fangraphs
and the holy writing of “the book.”
Why don’t you give me the probability of whether its better and how you estimate it?
To clarify, you are saying UZR carries no weight because I dont personally know MGL?
or because I don’t personally know the people at each ballpark who mark down the batted ball locations and which zones on the field hits land in, and whether they’re grounders or fly balls?
That is what you’re saying?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Collect the data
You know the “video scouts.” Talk about sidestepping every issue, the shitty remark about grounders or flyballs is telling. They also “calculate” whether they are line drives. What’s your definition of a line drive?
Once again, the data not being perfect is NOT a reason to ignore it completely
And you still never responded to my hits comment. Not all hits are created equal. What about a pop up in the infield that nobody catches because of wind or confusion or the sun? That’s a hit. So is a rocket off the center field fence.
So should we completely ignore hits because the methods are imperfect?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Calculating hits is flawed
Why do you use that as a justification for someone’s invention of judging defense or anything in life for that matter?
How good is the data?
Even if the data were perfect would it yield an accurate result? The answer is no.
I'm using it because you're on some kind of crusade against defensive metrics
But seemingly have no problem at all with our basic offensive stats. In fact, you even differentiated between “estimates” and “stats.”
The point still has not been answered: Why are you okay with some data that has noise, but not other data that has noise?
Also, really, go read up on UZR. Read the thousands and thousands of words its creator has written on the metric. You’ll hate it a lot less once you really understand how it works, how it’s calculated, how it’s effective (and why) and how it’s limited.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure it has been answered
Its not even a worthy question. It doesn’t establish anything. I read up on UZR. I’ve followed defensive stats from before UZR existed when people were getting all wound up over RZR. People had the same unfounded faith you have now. Then because the people who do it WATCHED, they decided to include OOZ and it completely changed a lot of the results. I followed it when players would get opposite results based on the source of the raw data. That’s something that would be a giant red flag in any other discipline but the business of producing baseball stats. I could go on, but I suggest the same to you.
If you read up on UZR, then you've misunderstood, like, 75% of it
Nobody is saying the metric is perfect. I (and others) are saying you don’t understand the metric because what you’re saying about it is NOT TRUE.
You really think we’re all wrong and that you understand it perfectly? Really? You don’t think it’s possible that you’re misunderstanding some of its very basic ideas?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
lol...
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
You realize that you have essentially ruined this thread because of your trolling?
Pam liked my old sig better.
And here I thought you were a troll
especially with those pathetic remarks about “watching.”
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
There's been plenty of discussion on UZR and why it's useful and important.
Not going to derail this thread even further so I’m just going to ignore you and flag you as a troll.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
You just can't defend your wild statements
Actually examining the facts and wondering what reality is would be useful. Instead you want to grasp on to your faith.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The weaknesses of UZR have been discussed
at length on AN. All of the participants here are aware of them. Different individuals choose to give UZR different weight. It’s a point on which we differ, and that’s fine.
But the only one on a crusade here is you.
You think UZR has no value. That’s fine, we get that. It’s OK. But you don’t need to keep ranting against anyone else who does find value in it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The real problem isn't that he thinks it has no value
That’s a valid opinion.
The problem is he keeps saying factually untrue things about UZR, how it’s created, what is measured (by whom and how), etc. and won’t budge on these factual statements. It’s not even about ideology at this point.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
1B and LF are different things
You’re right, he’s probably not a serviceable 1Bman except in a pinch, but LF and RF are there to put guys like Carter in. Could be decent, but probably suck.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Unless I'm mistaken, most players get moved FROM LF and RF to first base
after they’ve shown they have no more range in the outfield. It’s more rare for a first baseman to move to left field because it takes a larger skill set to play left. Can you remember the last below average first baseman who became a an average left fielder? The only one I know of is Conor Jackson (-6 first baseman → roughly average left fielder).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
They do require different skills though
Wasn’t Carter’s big problem fielding ground balls?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Right.
And Carter’s big problems in left are range, arm, fielding groundballs, routes….etc.
Like I said, he doesn’t have an actual defensive skill set. But I’m willing to qualify that with a “yet”.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Isn't a lot of that because of age/injury though?
The idea being “oh, player x big dude has balky knees. Let’s play him at 1B. At least the INFers have a big target to throw at.”
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Right, but that's still evidence that first base is easier and requires less of a skillset than left or right, if you're putting your old and wounded there.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Fair, but we already know that he's defensively worthless at 1B
Three years and he’s not good there. The way I see it there are far more scenarios where he plays the field than not next year, even though it’s clear his real position is DH. In the interim, I figure LF is better than nowhere.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
If he really is as bad as -15 in the field, then you
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
're better off with him in the minors learning left field and saving a year of service time, since he'll probably be replacement level.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Way to be completely wrong
A 22 game sample is an incredibly small sample size to judge a player’s defense, especially when you’re using UZR as the measuring stick.
‘Cause rule o’ thumb is you need 2+ seasons worth of data to get an accurate read on a player’s defensive ability. (I know, I shouldn’t have to tell you that but your arrogance seems to be making you forgetful.) I don’t care how smart you are, I don’t care how well you can argue a point, you don’t get to change the facts.
You want to say Carter’s D fails the eyeball test? Fine.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 4, 2010 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agreed on this, minus all the vitriol
Though I think it’s hard to say Carter’s D fails the eyeball test. I mean, he’s not good out there. He did blow a couple plays. But we’ve certainly seen worse.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
That's exactly what I'm saying
It’s what I’ve been saying for the last year. Every time someone actually goes out and watches the guy closely, the reports on his current talent are disastrous.
The UZR is a small sample which just reinforces that point. Yes, it’s true you can’t call an election with only 3% of the returns in. But when one is expecting Mr. X to beat Mr. Y by 20 points and the first returns are that he’s leading by 40, if you’re Mr. Y, that’s really bad news.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Again, wrong
I’ve read scouting reports via the usual sources that say Carter’s defense in LF is (to paraphrase) meh.
I’ll admit there’s a lot of interpretation to what “meh” means… but “disasterous” is a bit beyond the range.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This disagreement on scouting reports
is something that we could constructively check.
Can anyone provide links to scouting reports on Carter’s outfield defense? Then we could all look at them and judge for ourselves.
From your comments here, I gather the two of you have actually seen such reports somewhere. Are they available online?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I didn't save any links
KG and Sickels have made comments.
I don’t know where PT is hearing what he’s hearing.
The monster at the end of this blog.
With you again, grover
I think that PT is grossly exaggerating (but not in the way he and I both exaggerate to illustrate a point) the reports on Carter’s outfield defense.
I’ve actually not seen a report that suggests he’s anywhere near “Disastrous” in left field. And, for what it’s worth, I certainly wouldn’t call his small sample with the A’s disastrous either.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I specifically remember the 2009 futures game generating a bunch of really bad reports on his defense
Just one game, of course, but if ever there was a game to not screw up…
Sickels hasn’t really come out and made any specific comments about his defense— he’s used the phrase “defensive questions” or some close variant of it seemingly a hundred times, and used a double negative (“I didn’t see anything that would stop him from being OK in LF”) when he watched Midland sometime last year, but that’s about the extent of it. He’s also looked at Carter’s range factor and been horrified by it, though I think that criticism is largely subsumed by the TotalZone ratings alluded to further down the thread.
KG’s behind a paywall, so I can’t speak to him.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Oh, I forgot to add the Sickels interview with Beane
which was the very epitome of the phrase “damning with faint praise”…
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
1 game sample
Back from when he was even more of a neophyte at the position.
After all this… that’s what you lead with.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 4, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Hes got you there
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, players get worse on defense, but this doesn't include learning an entirely new position
As his overall defensive aptitude declines, he should also be expected to improve in left by nature of simply getting more reps out there.
Just from watching him, he already is better than Cust defensively. The 22 game sample (in terms of any numbers) is virtually meaningless.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
156 innings is a tiny sample
that tells us very little about a player’s “glove tool.” It’s the equivalent of judging a player’s bat by looking at a single week of batting stats.
Carter is likely a poor OF, but that’s a guess based mostly on scouting reports. The “lucky to only be a Cust-level adventure” claim is silly.
by Danny on Oct 4, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why are people treating this as though I said "his UZR proves that he will always suck"?
Again, I’ve been saying that he’s a pure DH for a year or more at this point.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Which is primarily based on his misadventures at 1B
If the A’s believe he has a chance at sticking in LF, it’s in their best interest to give him ample opportunity to either prove he can do it or prove he really is only a DH going forward.
We haven’t seen enough of him in LF to know for sure, and he hasn’t even played it enough to know all of what he’s doing out there. That’s why it’d help if he gets to play it every day in Venezuela. That’s why it’d help if Rickey gets to work with him. He might still be bad after that, but at least he’ll have had more experience to prove it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I was just about to say the same thing Flash.
Winterball should help him ( we hope ) in LF, especially learning how to take better routes to flyballs. Worse case scenario, he ends up being a full time DH in 3-4 years. Let’s give him a chance at least, though.
I’m pretty sure Ellis stays, either thru his option or a renegotiation of his contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a new 2 year deal for a little more money than the six million for the one option year…something like 2 yrs for 8 million or a lower base salary with built in incentives that escalate the value of the contract. That September he had was unreal….what the hell! I’d like to see him back and retire an Athletic….a super class act for sure.
My trade target would be Dan Uggla, by the way. Dude can just mash! He could DH full time and back up 2nd base. Cust could be a backup in LF or RF and DH if he comes back….he does still have value and could greatly benefit by having more mashers in the lineup in 2011.
Kouz stays because I don’t see Beltre coming here in FA. I think both he and Suzuki could benefit quite a bit from regular rest next year….but I’m fine with both of them, although I would like to see their OBP go up next year, especially Kouz! Yikes!
As far as FA goes, not sure who Beane is going after but obviously many of us are hoping for Crawford but I would take Werth, or even Dunn…even though we know he doesn’t want to DH and is probably not worth whatever his asking price is going to be. Choo would be awesome if it didn’t cost the farm and Kemp is still intriguing to me.
It’s been an interesting year and I look forward to next year….
Go A’s! M-Rod
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Yeah, I can't imagine why people think you wrote that
Having looked further at the numbers,
I’m going farther. The team cannot start him at outfield next season. That would be a defensive disaster.
I don’t think the sample size is that small, at least not for some of the component tools.
The glove tool won’t play, we already know that. He’ll be lucky to only be a Cust-level adventure out there
If you wrote that the scouting reports all suggest that Carter is a very poor OF, I would completely agree. The 156 innings, however, tell us virtually nothing. Looking further at the numbers and arguing that the sample size isn’t that small does nothing to support your claims that he’d be lucky to be as good as Cust or that the A’s “cannot” start him in the OF next year.
by Danny on Oct 4, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The 156 innings tells us even less when the decision to put Carter in LF full time only developed roughly...
…two weeks or so before the A’s called him up in August. They barely gave him the chance to get his feet wet out there before he was playing it in MLB yards.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Clearly that second comment is being misinterpreted
If it wasn’t clear, that’s on me, so sorry about that folks.
What I meant there is that we know a lot about his glove tool because of the time he spent at first base, and a little about his arm tool, too. Range, less so. That time at first base is the larger sample that I’m alluding to. You agree that he has spent a significant amount of time (in the minors) at first base such that we have a fairly good grasp on his defensive characteristics there/a decent sample of minor league TotalZone, yes?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think that's reasonable
Carter sticking at 1B over time is pretty unlikely.
I just think there’s still enough of a chance he can be average in LF that the A’s ought to see it through. If he fails out there, you only use a year or so to really prove it.
But, I say that from the position of someone who does not agree with the idea of saying “You, full-time DH from now on” without giving enough time in LF first, and the A’s haven’t given him enough time in LF yet. He’s still at the “figuring out what to do” stage.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That's fine
I just don’t see how a contending team can afford to run that kind of experiment with their starting corner outfielder.
In the minors, fine, let him play LF every day. Sacramento fans won’t appreciate it, but oh well. But if you’re doing that he’s not an option as a big-league bat for next season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If he hits like we're hoping he will, it'll cancel out a lot of the mistakes
Last of the Ninth - Photography
He'll have to hit a lot to cancel the mistakes...but that's just to get to replacement level.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Ideally, though, 2009 wouldn't have been wasted on bringing Giambi back, Barton would have...
…solidified things at 1B, and the A’s could have had Carter in LF from the start this year in Sacramento.
Oh well.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
If only Beane had hired me.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
or most of the stat people on AN that thought it was a bad idea
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Didn't Barton say that getting sent down was key to reworking his approach, though?
I’m still convinced the Giambi signing was the right move at the time it was made, but I think you could make a plausible case that it benefitted the team in the long run by giving Barton a wake-up call, too.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You mean it allowed Barton to get into the best shape of his life?
Really? You’re falling for this?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
hahahah this
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Who said something about "best shape of his life"?
I’m talking about him realizing that he needed to change his approach to hitting somewhat, and then making that change in the minors.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm using it as an example of ex post b-s
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
"Ex post b-s" could well describe about 90% of the complaints about Giambi...
I know that you were opposed to the signing at the time, however.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I mean players talking about improvments to their "process"
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
As was I
But it’s not (entirely) because I thought Barton was the man (yet).
I just thought Giambi was absolutely finished as a player. If they had signed a non-washed-up 1B, I might have been on board with it.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 6, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
It wasn't a thought exclusive to stats people.
A lot of stats people fell for the signing, too.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
this is why I said most.
the non stat people I remember thought that Giambi would hit 300
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember most people of both "camps" (if you want to insist on making them)
believing that he was too cheap to pass up at the price tag, even if he carried significant risk.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I remember nevermoor and I clamoring that Giambi was redundant and made no sense.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I remember hating the Giambi signing,
but I also said that I was opposed to it whether he hit well or not.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
My favorite was OMG HE HAD A LOW BABIP
when his BABIP had been low for like the last 5 years.
Pam liked my old sig better.
He had a really good xBABIP for some reason
However, I think that data may have been flawed because it forgot to take into account HBPs.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
One more before I head out for a bit
I’d also be cool with Carter splitting time in LF and at DH next year in Oakland, provided he’s hitting. He doesn’t need to be only one or the other yet.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I don't know what you mean by "glove tool"
Is this a reference to his error rate at 1B? If so, I don’t think error rate at 1B tells us much at all about error rate in LF.
His Total Zone at 1B in the minors from 2005-2009 (is the 2010 data available somewhere?) is -11 in 410 games. That’s -4 per 150 games. His 2010 CHONE defensive projection, based on Total Zone, is -5 per 150 games. I don’t see how Total Zone can be used to support the claim that Carter would be worse than Cust in the OF.
Let's look at the components of the Fan Scouting Report
Based on his first base time, can we judge his:
Reaction/instincts? Yes
Acceleration/First few steps? Yes
Velocity/Sprint Speed? Probably not (because in the OF this is tied in with route-running)
Hands? Yes
Release/Footwork? Probably not (first basemen don’t make a lot of tricky throws)
Throwing Strength? Kind of
Throwing Accuracy? Kind of
I think “hands” is their way of saying what I’ve referred to as “the glove tool.” I agree that raw error rate is a mediocre way of judging it.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Are reaction/instincts really transferable?
Reacting to a ball on a ground is a lot different than reacting to a ball in the air.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
True
so maybe that should be a “kind of” instead.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't see how this supports your argument
Again, his Total Zone at 1B in the minors is -4 per 150 games. That tells us very little about Carter’s defensive prowess in LF, and it certainly doesn’t suggest that he’s a -20 (or worse than Cust) in LF.
Pointing to the larger sample size of Total Zone does nothing to support your claims.
-4/150 in the minors at first base is quite bad, essentially DH-level
Some part of that -4 is first-base-specific and not applicable. Other parts of it are applicable.
It’s not a deal-clincher. None of this stuff is— it’s just bricks in the wall. SSS UZR, TotalZone of some uncertain level of applicability, very negative scouting reports— it’s all meandering around the truth to some degree. None of it is definitive, nor could it be.
But at some point one needs to cut through the speculative bullshit and make a call on this issue.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Making shit up isn't cutting through the bullshit
Uncertainty sucks, but faux-certainty is worse. There’s a huge error bar around Carter’s projected fielding in LF. We can be reasonably certain that he’d be somewhere between -5 and -20. You seem to be claiming he’s -20. That’s a reasonable opinion to hold, but don’t pretend it’s supported by objective analysis of the limited information we have available.
Sean Smith’s CHONE projected Carter to be a -5 fielder at 1B in 2010. Smith’s projection is based on Total Zone, which he created. There’s no good way to turn that -5 at 1B into a projection for LF. Just using standard offensive positional adjustments, he would be -10 in LF. Total Zone provides no support for your claim that he’d be -20 (worse than Cust).
The scouting reports tell us that Carter is a poor defender at 1B and a poor defender in LF. But they don’t tell us whether he’s -5, -15 or -25. Again, the scouting reports don’t support the claim that he’s -20.
The only piece of evidence that does support the 20 idea is his UZR in 156 innings. That’s a tiny sample, equivalent to a single week of hitting stats. Moreover, he was only -2 in Total Zone and Dewan’s +/ in his small major league sample, which scale to ~-15 over 150 games. These numbers are all essentially worthless, since they need to be so heavily regressed due to the tiny sample.
There’s a lot of evidence that Carter’s a poor fielder. However, while it’s certainly possible that he’s worse than Cust, the evidence does not point to that conclusion.
by Danny on Oct 4, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
I agree with Danny using 1b -> LF as a defensive proxy is just sketchy
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel like the Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz at this point
Nowhere on this thread (or elsewhere actually) have I claimed that Carter is certain to be a -20 defender (seriously, I am aware of the concept of error bars, thanks) or that he is worse than Cust (though I think it’s hard to argue that he’s not worse overall at this point, given Cust’s offensive track record).
The comment about him being a Cust-level adventure was specifically in the context of his catching (/hands/glove/whatever you want to call it) ability. Cust has stone hands but by all accounts Carter is as bad or worse.
To review:
The glove tool won’t play, we already know that. He’ll be lucky to only be a Cust-level adventure out there. People are saying his arm is only OK for left and fringy in right. He might improve his range some, but how much improvement can we reasonably project?
I’m not taking the fall for that one. I broke out the comments on his defense separately for each of the primary skillsets.
As for the -20 thing, I just ctrl-f’ed it and the only person on this thread who has used “-20” is you.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This makes much morse sense
Though I would argue that “glove tool” at first is vastly different from “glove tool” in the outfield.
Catching a ground ball and a fly ball are, obviously, two different things (even a ball on the ground in the outfield is much different from an infield grounder).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Really?
Barton has gotten worse on defense? You don’t think Pennington will get better?
Why would a player get worse on defense? I can understand why a hitter might get worse because of a flaw in his swing that pitchers find out about, but fielding a ball, and players generally get worse, makes no sense.
Eventually people will get worse in the field as they begin to slow down
They won’t be able to get to the same stuff they did five or ten years ago, for example.
But, especially at a younger age, it’s clear that players can and do improve on defense simply through working at it and getting repetition out there. Barton is a prime example of this. Sooner or later he’ll begin to decline but especially when learning a new position, in his case we’re seeing an early curve upward in quality that will begin to even out and decline over the years.
But it doesn’t just decline from the start.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It's obviously not literally the case that defense declines from the start
Otherwise 9-month-olds would be used as defensive replacements.
But if the effective “peak” of defense is usually at 22 or 23, there won’t be many players whose defensive ability can be expected to improve while they’re in the majors, because there just aren’t that many guys who make it to the majors that young.
I agree that the learning curve is a factor. I just think it’s irresponsible to needlessly impose that learning curve on the major league team.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm generally with you on that
And it’s tough to learn a new position at the top level. That’s pretty much what the A’s seem to be asking Carter to do right now, with some time in Venezuela in the off-season.
Not applying it to the whole team either, and I think in Barton’s case it’s more evident specifically because he moved from one position to the other. Naturally someone like that will start out subpar, get better as he learns the ins and outs of the position, then begin to decline over time assuming he sticks there. It’s likely different with someone who remains at one position the entire way.
Everyone peaks at one level or another defensively and Barton’s best is almost assuredly going to be better than Carter’s no matter what position is being talked about. I’m just not convinced we’ve seen Carter’s best yet in LF. I’m calling it “incomplete, needs more data” at this point. I understand the risk of him learning it on the job vs. them just telling him “You’re a DH from now on,” though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Pennington will get better by not making stupid throws
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
who is saying that about his arm, it was given strong ratings in his minor league scouting reports.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
It was criticized by ANers a few days ago
Granted that we’re not professionals, but I think arm is quite a bit easier to judge on TV than range, because generally the plays leading to the arm rating will be televised (whereas range is largely invisible to TV).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Oh good one bad throw vrs a ton of scouts
this is getting silly
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
See NSJ's comment, below
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Wow PT, this is a new low for you
Looking at absurdly tiny SSS from Carter, with the knowledge that he will be working on his OF defense this winter, I expect see nothing that prevents him from being an okay LF for a 24 yr old in 2011. Its very weird you are choosing to judge him off this absurdly small sample scale.
Worth noting: many, many playoff teams have had bad glove/good bat LFers over the last 20 years, its not a very important defensive position, we can afford to have him there until his late 20s for sure. It wont hurt us as bad you say it will.
I seem to recall many Pennington haters at this time last year, werent you one of them?
I feel this is a pure “numbers only” argument against a young athletic guy like Carter. I think thats a dumb reason when hes been told he has LF on lock next year.
+1
Ad nasuem DFA and PT quoted minor league stats predicting Penny’s future failure. I remember quoting Beane touting him as the real deal to play SS for this season, and there was a cacophony of stat evidence he would be a total failure. Who is to say this may be another instance?
I just reread the most recent 50 comments that I made about Pennington
and, basically, I think you’re full of shit. There is no consistent pattern of me bashing the guy. At one point in a fanpost I guesstimated him as about a 1.5 WAR player, which is hardly a mortal sin. I noted at another point that while his glove looked poor after last season, TotalZone liked him. I noted that while his MLEs were poor, he had suffered some injuries in the minors that might have masked some potential, and that his plate discipline was really excellent and might make him a good player in the Luis Castillo mold.
Bottom line, I think I was more than fair to the guy.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
PT I owe you an apology
I re-read your comments. I had grouped you together with DFA’s consistent Course disparaging/contempt/irreverence towards the guy. The only negative comment I found was your insistence that he had no trade value and was likely a AAAA guy going forward ( in response to Beane’s statement that he had been a target from other teams as a trade chip).
That's fair
Thanks.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
and for the record, i was only asking
and i was off the mark, it was dfa who was against him not really pt.
I was one of the guys who doubted Pennington
And I’m very happy with how well Pennington did. I’m still not sure he’s for real but with the real lack of talent at SS in the AL currently, I’m happy with Pennington there.
But just because Pennington performed, does not mean stats are wrong. In general, stats are better than gut instinct. And of course Beane would have supported Pennington as he was the A’s only option there save perhaps Rosales. But going after Scutaro shows how Beane really felt about Pennington.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I cop to saying that Pennington would be a black hole its true
I still expect his bat to fall off next year.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
How come?
I’m not arguing it (though I actually think he’ll get a little better. And he should, since he’s entering his prime). Just wondering what makes you think he’ll get worse.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Chone thinks that he will too
basically im a big believer that health is a skill and that he has been healthy this year but is likely to have nicks an owies eat into his production in future years like they did in the minors.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
didnt he have huge, flukey in-game injuries in the minors though?
i seem to recall broken bones, those arent nicks or owies or even degenerative things. he simply had bad luck.
No, mostly hammy pulls
although broken bones are a lot more genetic/otherwise innate than one might think.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well he hit a ton of triples....
And he is fast, so he’ll always be above average in that regard, but he hit them at a rate much higher than his minor league numbers suggest. Ditto for HRs: I think Pennington will only hit 3-4 next year. And if his minor league numbers are all flawed by injury, I can’t see why he would not be injured and play through it in the majors if he did in the minors.
Add to that a real high UZR (10.3) and I could see a collapse to 1.5 WAR level. Then again, there’s no real replacement for Penny and his BABIP was semi-low (.296). Hopefully Pennington maintains his level because unless Green really shores up his defense and his bat develops real well, Pennington is the SS for the next 5 years.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
But he's had an outstanding UZR despite 25 errors
I see no reason to believe Penny’s UZR goes down. Even if the range number is flukey, he can improve upon the 25 errors in ’11.
I personally think Penny can post a 1.5 WAR in his sleep going forward thanks to the outstanding defensive tools. That’s his floor to me.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 5, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
He could cut out a third of those by not throwing when he has no chance
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Ron Washington told Fosse in a pregame interview
That Pennington was an extraordinary SS. He had never in his entire career seen a behind your back tag throw to first double play, and that on the whole he was very very impressed with his defense. So far the following people have gushed about Penny’s bright future: Jane Lee, Fosse & Kuip, KKorach, Cotreone, Slusser, Geren, Gallego…..
It is amusing to me to hear all of these projections he will be a disappointing going forward. To my mind, he was one of the nice surprises this team has had in a while….
And guess what? All of them are paid to say nice things about Pennington!
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2010 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Both of them write to please the A's fan audience
And both are very close to the situation. They can’t say bad things about a current A’s player without losing access to some players.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I disagree.
They write to reveal the truth. Yes, they don’t want to piss anyone off, but they don’t shy away from tough subjects either.
name one subject?
Slusser and other beat writers commented on the players bad relationship with Macha only after he got fired for fear of losing access IIRC
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
absolutely not true
I had written about his issues with Piatt, Singleton, Guillen, Melhuse, etc., all before he was fired., and very much Terrence Long and former coach Thad Bosley.
In 2003 not 2006
There was never anything written about the disagreement with Kotsay, Zito, Kendall, or Haren before Macha was fired.
Where was the explanation about Buck being in the dog house?
Or Gallagher?
When was the last A’s player that was just lit into for sucking in the paper or on the drumbeat?
Ive said time and time again that I think youre the second best beat writer in the country after Dejan Kovacevic (and I read a ton of them) but its inherently a conflict of interest. This string of comments from you suggests that badgering players doesn’t lead to them opening up. In your experience does writing that they aren’t any good help?
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
heya
Sorry, haven’t checked in for a while, I wasn’t ignoring you! I never heard Gallagher was in the doghouse, and I am not the one who wrote that Buck is/was, so can’t help you there.
As for the others, I think Kotsay and Zito, in particularly, made their feelings known about a few decisions or comments they weren’t crazy about during that season. Melhuse popped off to me before Macha was fired, but beyond that, I can’t betray any off-the-record confidences. All I can say is that it’s probably safe to assume that people will say things ON the record after someone has been fired that they wouldn’t while he is still their boss.
Also, the team was in the pennant race. Most players and other team officials wouldn’t want to rock the boat during a pennant run. I believe there is a reason everyone waited to do what they did, it’s fairly obvious, and it has nothing to do with me losing access or anything like that. As I’ve explained numerous times, I can’t force anyone to talk on the record, and in this case A) it’s hard to get anyone to rip their boss when he’s still there and B) they were playing for something.
also
I am not hesitant about pointing out sub-par play. I don’t call people out, though, because I am not a columnist. I can point out people in slumps and who are underperforming, and I do, but I can’t say anything too opinionated – that’s not my job. That’s the columnists’ job.
My current count has DFA
chastised on being overzealous in his opinions on the radio by CT. Overzealous in his assertions that our beloved beat writer has the integrity and fortitude to be a journalist and not just a cheerleader. I wonder if he will attract another rebuke…say by the organization’s front office?
What are you talking about.
I have never have be chastised by CT on the radio.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2010 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Inaugural week of his radio show
I remember hearing you being dismissed as a lame stat-head. You wrote about it on here back when it happened.
yeah that never happened
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2010 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, his HR and 3B rate has been fairly consistent over the first year and a half
But even if those drop, they’ll almost certainly become doubles. It would only take a few extra hits or walks to balance that out.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 6, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually
the sample size is irrelevant when the quality of data is unknown and it is known that the method of compilation has multiple flaws. The 2 year or 3 year thing is complete invention. You can have a career’s worth of data and not be able to draw conclusions from it.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do you have anything to back that up?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
This is just not a true statement
The “2 year or 3 year” thing is not a “complete invention” (whatever that actually means). It takes about 2 1/2 seasons of defensive data to equal 1 offensive season BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF SAMPLES. The samples are not “a complete invention.” They’re what happened. Even if you absolutely hate UZR and every other defensive metric for some “Numbers scare me” reason, you simply can’t deny that in every baseball game there are X number of chances to make a defensive play for each player. These are the chances that make up the sample, and players get many, many more plate appearances in a season than they do chances to make a defensive play.
The quality of all data is, basically, unknown. Would you argue that all hits are created equal? If not, then throw that stat out, too.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure its true
Why would 3 years of data represent a sufficient sample? The idea that there is a correlation between hitting stats and defensive stats is another hilarious proclamation. What supports it? Faith in the leadership?
Why must you complain about something you seriously do not understand?
You seriously are showing total ignorance about the subject here.
Look, 2-3 years of defensive data EQUALS 1 year of offensive data. It’s not even that it’s “sufficient,” since it’s often hard to determine how good someone is at hitting based on a one-year sample. It’s that it’s about the same number of opportunities.
What the hell correlation are you talking about? You mean counting? Because that’s all this so-called “correlation” is. Now, if you don’t believe that 1 plate appearance = 1 defensive chance, well, I don’t even know what (I do know what, but people like to flag me for telling the truth, so we’ll leave it at that).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Fine. Be that way. I'm gonna write a daily FanPost about Strickouts and how computers can't understand defense now.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm staying out of this whole shitfit.
If some ignorant asshole is going to repeatedly derail a thread based on idiotic proclamations and a whole lot of hand waving, there’s no reason to feed him.
Cute
Very clever. Imply that I’m an asshole without actually using the word. You know that I was not the person he was talking about.
Whatever. I don’t understand why you insist on insulting me personally every time there’s some policy dispute between us.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I know where he was going
I just see a lot of similarity between your arguments in this thread and JetSam’s.
And your ego can take the occasional shot.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Just because a guy is tough enough
to take a shot doesn’t mean it’s OK to shoot him.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yet no one worries about JetSam...
I find both PT’s and JetSam’s arguments to be full of holes… yet JetSam got both barrels.
The monster at the end of this blog.
One guy is a long-time contributor who has provided countless hours of free reading entertainment for all of us
The other guy is an unknown.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 4, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Most of the attacks on JetSam
did not take the form of personal attacks. Those that did, including Dan’s indirect one, were inappropriate.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
the guy had it coming
I thought it was trollish behavior
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 4, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
How you characterize his behavior is irrelevant.
Calling someone an “ignorant asshole” is a personal attack, period.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
i think what nsj is saying is that truth is a defense
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
its better than the Chewbacca Defense
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
who is from Keyshyck but he lives on Endor
That doe not make sense!
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Are they really?
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, they are.
For example, I know someone who was driving legally intoxicated, and got t-boned by somebody who blatantly and badly ran a red light. When the person came to in the hospital, they were informed that they were under arrest for DUI. When the person complained that the accident wasn’t his fault, they said, “We know.”
They frequently don’t get applied fairly, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
im confused what part do you think is unfair in this?
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You would agree though
if someone broke one of the CG’s and was called out on it, even called an asshole it wouldn’t be a violation?
Say Poster 1 says “I like Politician A and Politician B is a totally lying ass hat”
and Poster 4 says “don’t worry about him he is an ignorant asshole”
POster 4 can’t suffer a strike because if it, right?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
No, I wouldn't.
I don’t think it’s relevant, because I don’t think JetSam broke any CGs. But Poster 4 in your scenario would be richly deserving of a strike. You don’t get a pass because of what the subject of the attack did or said.
The only exception to this rule I can fathom is self-defense, and that’s a pretty weak one.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
soyou agree that
if a CG is violated, there is a different standard for the subsequent alleged violation.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
as far as im concerned the truth is a great defense
if the person is lying calling them a liar isn’t a personal attack.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions
And even then
If you’re calling the person a liar to attack them personally, it doesn’t really matter. It’s still a personal attack, it’s just an accurate one.l
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
So?
Sorry but I can’t approve of punishing someone ’cause they tell the truth. The act of lying is the far greater disservice to the community.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Then don't think of it as punishment.
Think of it as the line you crossed as an act of noblesse.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Nice try
But the line I may have crossed has little to do with simply telling the truth. I didn’t respond to Paul because I thought he was lying.
In the case of an outright lie, there should be no line in the way of calling the person a liar.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Also, calling someone a liar - especially if proof is offered - is not a "personal attack"
It’s in the context of the discussion.
I always considered a personal attack to be dropping the argument and going to PERSONAL things (insulting race, a person’s family, etc.)
Even saying someone is being an asshole in the context of “You were an asshole for making that comment” shouldn’t qualify.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 6, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
It does matter for credibility
When a poster who consistently tells falsehoods says something it should be taken into account in weighing their argument.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
No, I don't.
I can only think of one scenario in which it could be acceptable to use a different standard, which is self-defense.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Was grover's?
Just curious. I’m debating whether to flag it. On the one hand, it’s not that bad of an insult, but on the other, I’m really getting kind of sick of getting kicked in the nuts by him every time we disagree about something.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Throw the flag
You were arrogant and wrong in your comments on UZR and the sample size. You know the deal with UZR, so your comments couldn’t be based on serious analysis. They were based on hubris.
Don’t want me to knock you down a peg? Check some of the attitude at the door. Being cocky and wrong makes you a target.
As for the rest… I think your argument and JetSam’s are very similar in tone and wrongness. I saw no reason why he should take DM’s shot and you should get off scott free.
I know… what’s the world coming to when I have to be the one to call for fairness?!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Believe it or not,
when you don’t read every comment someone makes with the preconceived notion “this comment is arrogant and wrong,” sometimes it will actually become clear that you have misread what they are saying.
You do this very regularly and I have never once seen you take any responsibility for misinterpreting someone’s comment. It’s just attack, attack, attack, and if you happen to be attacking something they didn’t actually say, well, it must be their fault, so might as well attack them for that too.
Well, to hell with that. I made clear what I had actually meant by the initial comments (which is that the effect on my opinions of discovering that SSS UZR was essentially to lower Carter’s defensive floor) well before you took a shot at me.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Check the time stamps
You didn’t start to back off the UZR stuff until a full hour after I threw one up and in.
Yes, I think it’s too early to make judgements about Carter’s OF defense but my problem with you in this thread was your blatant disregard of the sample size issue. Did I continue to hammer you on UZR after you backed off your Oct. 3 comments?
No. I made one rebuttal. Hell, I even explained why I pressed so hard in a later comment.
Did I challenge you when you made the “disastrous” claim?
Yeah, I did. One rebuttal.
Did I throw a zinger in off of danmercury’s comment to JetSam?
Yes I did… because I thought your continued protestations when Danny cleaned your clock were ridiculous.
So your claim that I “attack, attack, attack” is pretty much unfounded in this thread. Responsibility?
I’m not the one who’s had to backtrack in this thread.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I just checked the timestamps
Me noting the effect of the SSS UZR on my thinking: 10:32 a.m.
You calling me an asshole: 1:08 p.m.
Whatever.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I chimed in of DM's shot based on your fight with Danny
Not on your specific Oct. 3 UZR comment. I explained that above.
And I told you to throw the flag if you felt it was over the line.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I flagged danmerqury's.
I’m similarly on the fence about grover’s. I suppose if I’m being fair, I should flag both. Just because it wasn’t as direct doesn’t mean it should be allowed.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I flagged it
youre totally wrong but hes being an ass
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
And I flagged this comment
Mainly ‘cause you don’t seem to appreciate my sense of fairness.
To paraphrase, Paul deserved to get taken down a notch or three in this thread. If in the process of that most noble goal I crossed a line than so be it.
The monster at the end of this blog.
If this wasn't like the tenth time you'd done this in the last three months,
this might actually not sound completely disingenuous.
As it is, you’ve now really pissed me off, so flag it is.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Is that a guess, or have you been keeping count?
Either way I suggest you grow a thicker skin. Learn to compartmentalize. Shake it off. Rub some dirt on it.
Whatever.
‘Cause if you say something brilliant tomorrow I’m not going to come after you out of spite. I’d likely end up agreeing with you.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The use of "like" should have signalled hyperbole there
I’m not that good at keeping grudges.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
booo hooo hooooo
Im deeply hurt
Paul did deserve to get taken down a notch or three and guess what others did just fine. You decided to kick him in the balls despite making no intellectual arguments against him.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2010 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Like I said, Paul isn't ignorant
He’s used the “small sample size, doesn’t mean anything” argument countless times. I didn’t think he needed to be read chapter and verse after I pointed out his mistake.
It appears he did need the extra encouragement and by the time I logged back on others had taken care of it. I moved on rather than pile on.
As for the joke… I told him to flag it if he felt it crossed the line. I think it’s ticky-tack but I won’t protest if I get a strike.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I am gonna write one about how computers can't sel me auto insurance
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
but they can sell you a team based completely on defensive metrics used by people with laptops
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I recently switched my auto insurance on a computer
So… I think you’re wrong.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
What is the source of your belief
in 2-3 years of defensive estimates equaling 1 year of offensive stats?
Do you even know what a correlation is?
Oh. My. God.
ALL IT’S SAYING IS THAT ONE DEFENSIVE CHANCE = ONE OFFENSIVE CHANCE!
And a player needs 2 1/2 years of defensive chances to equal what he’d get over the course of one season of hitting. It’s seriously just adding up events. It has nothing (or very little, anyway) with the reliability of the “video scout.”
This is really not complicated. It’s not a “belief.” I’m not imagining that a CF can get 600 PA in a season, but needs 2 1/2 years to get about 600 chances in the outfield.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
It. Is. A. Belief.
You’re correlating two sets of data. You should at least have some notion why you’re doing it.
It isn’t just adding up events. Seriously, that’s square one of defensive metrics. It simply isn’t. The data is produced by “video scouts.” If you don’t think that the reliabity of data is relevent, just go to wikipedia or something and start there with validity and reliability. Its profoundly important.
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You don't need to even relate the two though.
Or correlate, or whatever. All people are saying is that to get to “X” degree of certainty for event “Y”, you need a sample of at least “Z” of those events.
So if you define event “Y” to be a fielding opportunity, then you need ~2 1/2 years to get a statistically significant result.
Note that this has nothing to do with whether or not you believe in the metric, and also has nothing to do with any other metrics out there. If you define event “Y” to be an offensive statistic, then you only need ~1 year to get the same sample size “Z” of events. This is a completely independent calculation though, and has absolutely no bearing on measuring it for other stats.
YES. THIS!
I do not understand why this is so difficult to comprehend.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
The SSS changed my position from "he's probably going to be really bad"
to “yikes, he’s probably going to be bad, but could be unbelievably bad”. It’s lowered the apparent floor of his defense.
That’s all.
I wasn’t a “Pennington hater,” though I thought he looked more like a Scutaro-type utilityman than a starting-caliber player.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I love moneypenny,
but sadly I think the verdicts out on him still.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
The organization is plastering his image next to Barton and Suzuki
At the Colisuem store (replacing chavez and Buck) as well as the website. Perhaps they know something?
Well if Chavez and Buck were up there previously, that's pretty damning evidence that they DON'T know something.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Absolutely
I think this was the best way this could have played out…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Oct 3, 2010 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
good point g
As cheesy as this sounds…
As I watched the A’s players slap hands at the end of the game, it made me think to myself how positive it is to end the season on a four-game win streak. Nice way to enter the off-season – feeling good about your job.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yes, but.....
We were playing our regulars and, as far as I could tell, the Mariners were playing scrubs, pretty much. So we won 4 and we got to .500 and that’s ok, but only ok. Let’s face it , when we lost 3 of 4 to the Rangers and were swept by the Fallen Angels, that was our season right there. I like Carter (what’s not to like) and I think we have a shot to improve next year, but “being on the upswing” doesn’t really cut it with MLB ball players unless they see tushies in the seats, and unless they can make even more money through endorsements, etc. In a small market like Oakland, I don’t see either of those things happening. We have got to get a new stadium. The Coliseum is a burial ground. PNC Park, AT & T, those are beautiful places to play (ok, it doesn’t help the Pirates much). To paraphrase Bette Davis: “The Coliseum? Wotta dump!” OK—-now on to next year. We have talent, real talent, coming back. I’d love to get a hitting OF—I think Carter is our LF. Kemp? Me like! He was hoodooed by Colletti saying mean things about him—-yeah, even ball players can be sensitive. Anyway, it was a good season and it’ll be a better one next year even if we don’t do a darn thing! Let’s all say it in unison: GO A’S!
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
Thanks for the breakdown NSJ
after your recent post about this, I’ve been watching the bottom of the standings daily.
Alright, I'm gonna throw a few convo topics out there, in hopes that this becomes a conversation thread at work tomorrow:
#1: I’m disappointed in Chris Carter’s defense. He made a throw to third today, preventing a guy from tagging up, and I don’t love his arm. Granted, it’s not a huge deal in left field, but he definitely does not have a plus arm. People will run on it. And we already know he doesn’t have great range or reads.
This statement is borderline heresy around these parts, but I want Carter to start 2011 in Sacramento. I think people are too anxious to unwrap this Christmas gift. He’s not a good defender, and he could absolutely use a full year of playing LF in AAA. If he’s a -10 defender in left field – which I think he is – and he puts up a line anywhere close to what he’s done in 67 at bats so far, that’s a disastrous contribution for the team.
He will be a very useful, 3-4 win player one day. All the more reason to not call him up at the start of 2011 if he will be a replacement-level player at that point.
I think that he can be a true-talent -5 defender at best in left field, and that he needs to get to that level defensively before he should be the every day left fielder, because he would have to hit extremely well – like, Adam Dunn well, right out of the gate – to justify playing him out there every day. An additional season in Sac will get him to an acceptable level as a left field defender and will also give him time to improve his approach against off-speed stuff.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
His UZR/150 this year in left field, admittedly in a very small sample,
was -42.7.
He’s a DH. There’s no getting around this fact. He is a generationally incompetent baseball prospect when it comes to defense. The A’s need to cashier his glove and stop wasting time and resources on having him do anything other than hit.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Oct 3, 2010 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So then he should definitely stay in Sac for 2011
Because he certainly isn’t as good a hitter as Cust at this point in his career.
When Cust is in his mid-30s and reaches six years of service time, and either has lost effectiveness or no longer wants to be an Athletic, Carter will be the A’s full-time DH. I’m totally on board with that.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd have him apprenticing in 2011 and taking over the job in 2012, which would give the A's his 6 peak hitting seasons (age 25-30)
Cust should be retained for next year but I can’t see the A’s tendering him in 2012. By that time he’ll be making more than he’s worth.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Then he sucks as a prospect. He's only got value to 50% of MLB teams, and he's not good enough to start for most of them right now anyway.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I don't know about "sucks," but he's not a great value, that's for sure
He’s reasonably likely to fill the DH slot with an average-to-slightly-above-average player, and he has a small chance of being a truly awesome hitter who can put up big WAR even from the DH spot. It’s nice, I guess. Not really fabulous. Not likely to be “the answer” to getting the A’s to the playoffs.
He’s been overrated for some time now (pretty much since the 2008 offseason), because prospect rating services always overrate players with one elite tool at the expense of guys with several good ones.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That's like saying "His wOBA this year in 20 PA was .150. He's not a Major League hitter."
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
No
its like having some lump watch a video of batting practice and judging whether they would have been hits and then publishing that as a "metric.’
Dude, you really need to actually read about the metrics before you go on and on with the false impressions
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, once you actually understand the metrics and how they work, the comparisons might make sense
This one doesn’t. I mean, not even a little bit.
The people who record the data make absolutely no judgments about whether a ball should have been caught. None. All they do is show where the ball landed.
The line drive/fly ball point you made is a valid one, and there is certainly some noise (as with, you know, everything). Still, I know how much goes into getting one of these positions. If you’re calling towering pop ups a line drive, you’re not getting the job.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
So what is your definition of a line drive?
Saying that sometimes the ability to judge isn’t relevant doesn’t mean much.
And the video scouts are guessing which zone a ball would land in if the park actually matched the zone chart.
Do you think they adjust for placement of the camera? Do you think they rotate? Do you think they are fans of baseball or a certain team? All those are relevant.
You know what, you could run a test here on AN. Pull up the chart that is used. That is available. in a game thread for the playoffs, have people state which zone they think it is in. You just have to have people who commit to answering before seeing how others answer. That would be necessary because of the cognitive bias it would create. You know there are many cognitive biases that are involved in producing defensive metrics, right?
by JetSam on Oct 4, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
that would be fun
but I bet youwouldn’t like the result. Plus random schmoes on the internets are not the people entering the data.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I admitted the line drive/fly ball thing was an issue
The zone placement isn’t. The stringers don’t place the ball in a zone. The stringers put the ball where it landed (or was caught). They have a picture of the stadium and drop the dot where the ball was.
There really isn’t an issue here with camera angles. It’s really not difficult to look at a picture of the field, look at where the ball dropped, and then put the dot there.
At least, that’s how it works for STATS.
The people who chart the information just chart the information (and I’ve said a hundred times that they’re not perfect). Outside of that, they have nothing to do with the metric.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
If you had five years of scouting reports telling you that someone wasn't a major league hitter,
and then he came up and did that…
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
you didn't though
you have several years of scouting reports saying he couldn’t play the infield.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
No reason to assume that Carter's first 67 at bats
are indicative of what he’d put up in 2011 over a full season of at bats.
If you believe that Cust will hit well in 2011 and the A’s can sign/trade for a clearly superior LF then sure… I could see an argument for keeping Carter in SAc to start next season.
I think Cust is going to crash and I’ll judge the new LFer when he materializes.
The monster at the end of this blog.
No! His wOBA was .265. This shows he's not going to be a major league hitter!
Just like his -42.7 UZR/150 shows he’ll never competently handle a position he’s been playing for, like, 3 months.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it was July he started playing there.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Talking point #2:
If the A’s signed Crawford, he could play LF exclusively in 2011, with Carter in AAA and Crisp in CF.
In 2012 – already comfortable in Oakland, and with the rest of career earnings secure with his huge long-term deal, perhaps Crawford could be persuaded to take over for Crisp in CF, once Crisp’s deal runs out. This opens up left field full-time for Carter, perhaps with Cust still at DH in his final year before reaching free agency. (This is assuming the A’s don’t non-tender Cust again this offseason; I think he will be retained, since he hit well and signed at a reduced salary).
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
Crawford spent years fighting Tampa about moving to CF
At this point I wouldn’t even hope to convince him to make the move in Oakland.
Unless you had blackmail photos.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Fortunately we don't need him in CF.
Since it isn’t like we have a glut of competent COF, and CoCo is probably our best current OF.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Fixed
Since it isn’t like we have a glut of competent COF, and CoCo isprobablyour best current OF.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends upon a certain pair of knees
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
this is true
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
doesn't everything on the a's
depend on either a pair of knees, or an elbow or two.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
what about backs! why are you forgetting backs?
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Crawford ain't going to play for the A's
How much longer is this fiction going to continue? Arte Moreno and the mega-bucks Angels, still smarting from a 3rd-place finish, will never be out-bid by the A’s for Carl Crawford. Moreno might concede to the Red Sox or Yankees on price, but never the A’s. That would be a colossal strategic blunder.
Jayson Werth would be a Seattle Mariners-type free agent fiasco. Remember where he plays and who he plays with. Remember what the Oakland Colosseum did to Matt Holliday’s power production.
Jack Cust would put up similar numbers as Adam Dunn if Cust had been playing in Cincinnati and Washington.
Premium free agents aren’t worth the risk for the A’s. Trade or develop, those are the choices for the A’s. Beane and Wolfe know this and, frankly, they have been very candid on that point.
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. - Mark Twain
by ptbarnum on Oct 3, 2010 9:43 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I'm afraid I kind of agree with this
I’m not sure why, when we’re already getting turned down by the likes of Rafael Furcal and Marco Scutaro, we’re all of a sudden going to be able to lure in Carl Crawford.
There’s no harm trying, obviously, and maybe the money will speak loudest in the end. But the past couple offseasons have proved we’re fighting an uphill battle with these sorts of things, regardless of how the money plays out.
the oakland athletics: hittin' ain't easy
by walk off bunt on Oct 3, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Sustained
A big name FA signing with A’s is pipe dream. The A’s are black hole for egocentric athletes looking for endorsements or sponsors. Crawford? At top of his game? Dunn, a premier bomber? Not going to happen.
Agree with Carter being DH. Barton becomes trade material if Carter takes 1B. Wise? Dunno. Carter in OF statistically negates his bat, as pointed out above. Moreover, the A’s offensive talent aggregate has become OF – there are more than enough capable players to make OF respectable, injuries notwithstanding The holes in lineup are glaringly 3B and C – where “Kouz” is hapless NL type player, “Zuke” over-played, exhausted, miscast as middle-of-order guy.
by Slip n Slide on Oct 3, 2010 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Werth
I am becoming more convinced that Werthis the A’s best target.
Right Fielder, older probably needing less years, no need to “get a ring” before his career is done.
FWIW stat corner has his park adjusted BABIP regressed OBA at .371, so its not like he is likely to have a huge fall.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Werth is probably better if the A's are looking at a 2 year window of contention, Crawford better if it's more like 3-4 years.
And I think, 2 years down the road, Werth’s 25+ home run power will make him a more valuable trade chip than Crawford in, say, 2014.
Still, I feel he's a decent bet to...
hit 5-10 more home runs per season and have better offensive numbers than Crawford.
I know the point is winning games in the next few seasons, but I think the A’s also need to factor in ‘resale value’ if you catch my drift.
pre loved thank you very much
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford will be signed before the A's even talk to him
The A’s don’t set the market. They react to it.
Nobody expects some kind of obscure Monty Python allusion.
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Oct 4, 2010 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Crawford's agent isn't dumb
Getting the most teams possible involved in the bidding increases the contract value.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
#3
I’m trying to talk myself into the A’s pursuing Victor Martinez or Adam Dunn.
I can see a situation where Crawford, Werth, and Beltre all have zero interest in signing with the A’s, and all three have gigantic offers from wealthy, high-profile, desirable teams like the Angels, Red Sox, and Yanks. If that situation arises, it would render this whole Type A free agent/protected draft situation moot. Unless…
Unless the A’s are willing to sign a Type A reliever, or De La Rosa (who scares the hell out of me with his walk rate), or Dunn or V-Mart.
I could see Dunn and V-Mart being shunned by most of the big-market teams, and looking for a big payday from someone. If that happens, should the A’s show interest in those two guys?
Is signing Dunn worth the defensive hit that comes with putting him or Cust in the OF?
Could signing V-Mart be an unconventional way of upgrading the offense – making him the second catcher, and giving him 200 at-bats at catcher to keep Zooks fresh, 200 at-bats at DH, and 100 at-bats at first?
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
Martinez should really never ever ever play catcher.
I’d be more confident having you behind the dish, NSJ.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Yikes, scary thought
You think that V-Mart would get exposed behind the plate, even if he was only playing ~40 games a year there, spelling Suzuki, and getting the rest of his at-bats at DH and occasionally at first?
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
No, no and no.
Dunn I dont mind: he’s one of the few upgrades we can make over Cust, but he’s more expensive got not that huge an upgrade so why bother? VMart has no business being in the green and gold ever.
People still have not proven that Dunn would be anything but a very, very marginal upgrade over Cust (like a quarter to a third of a win at best)
At, like, 4 times the cost (at least).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
To follow up: Just adjusting for park, Cust was a better hitter than Dunn this year. And in 2008. And in 2007.
That doesn’t even factor in league and the DH penalty.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I was ignoring that just for the comparison, but it's a good point
Even if you could convince him to do it (money, promises of Brett Anderson’s twitter hos, whatever), I’m not sure it’s a good idea.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Which sucks, because I think he would totally fit the A's clubhouse mold.
Apparently there are stories floating around that he used to call down into the bullpen from the dugout and ask whoever answered if they were wearing something sexy.
Pam liked my old sig better.
So the A's are interested in the sexy outfits worn by teammates?
Says a lot about the past four seasons.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Smart and handsome with a good job!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I'm re-naming my roto team "Brett's Twitter Hos'
Nobody expects some kind of obscure Monty Python allusion.
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Oct 4, 2010 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Dunn to DH and Crawford to CF!!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
And sign Gross, but don't let him wear any bells!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
If we signed Dunn, the question would be
Have Dunn play OF and hope Coco makes up for a lot of it, while leaving Barton at 1B.
OR
Teach Barton LF and have Dunn slide to 1B. Dunn’s far better at 1B than OF, and I"m sure Barton can be decent in the OF given a spring of it.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 3, 2010 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions
You can probably teach Anderson or Cahill to play left, and they'll probably do a better job of it than Dunn.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Carter in LF and Crisp in CF would be a bit like Luzinski in LF and Maddox in CF for the mid/late-70s Phillies...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Dunn is godawful in left, which is basically the only place he could play on the A's (since he's adamantly opposed to DHing).
Seriously, he was like, worse than a -30 in ’08 and ’09, the last two years he spent exclusively in left.
Even if you assume regression and he’s actually between a -15 and -20 (and maybe I’m being generous here cause he’ll continue to decline defensively since he’ll be on the wrong side of 30 for this contract), his bat will only make up for the difference so much. It’s not inconceivable that in Oakland, he’s a 1 WAR player.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions
The thing that turns me off VMart
Is that he only seemed to hit well in 2010 at Fenway or against LHP.
Not very helpful for the big bucks he’ll be getting.
I wouldn’t want to buy more then Dunn’s 31-32-33 years. Any more then that and I start losing interest.
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
V-Mart was miserable against RHP this year
Could he be trending into a platoon role?
Here's the thing about Victor Martinez in a hybrid role between catcher, 1B, and DH...
I don’t think it suits Geren’s skills to make the best of that situation.
Oh, and one other point...
Put Carter in left the minute he returns from Venezuela. He may never be a good defensive player but he’s already better than Manny Ramirez in the field. If Kouzmanoff can hit 16 homeruns, this kid will hit 30, easy. Ask the pitchers who they want in left field, somebody like Ryan Sweeney or some guy who can blast the ball into the next county on a fairly regular basis. What d’ya think?
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. - Mark Twain
I think they want a guy who can catch and make their ERA look good.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Oct 3, 2010 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I want really good defenders in CF & RF
LF, no care ever as long as we get 900+ OPS out of that spot.
I don't fully understand this "defense doesn't matter in these positions" idea.
And there were only 14 guys in the game last year OPSing over .900, so a guy like that would be expensive as hell.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Unless he's Chris Carter.
Then he’s dirt cheap. I don’t know what kind of OBP he’s going to have next year, but he’s a mortal lock to slug .500.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Bet?
Odds?
“Mortal lock,” so you should be willing to give me at least 2 to 1 on the $10 you already owe me, right?
All we need to do is figure out some plate-appearance minimum so one of us doesn’t get screwed by some super-tiny sample size. 100 PA?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Are you only offering 1-to-1 odds?
Just trying to clarify.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Alright
Still dead money, IMO. I’ll double down on that.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Not my bet
But I don’t think 100 PA is nearly enough. If Carter only gets 100 PA next year, it’s almost certainly because he’s not performing well.
Make it 250-300 (about half a season or so). A half season could be good performance/injury, bad performance/demotion/benching, starting at AAA and coming up in June/July and being good or bad.
Seems like the most reasonable “neutral” amount of plate appearances.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think most really bad players get 250 PA,
Brandon Wood notwithstanding.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well, to be fair to them, they didn't have any non-suck to replace the suck with
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This year the A's had TEN guys who had 250+ PA and didn't slug .500
I don’t think 250 PA is unfair at all.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 6, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
In his best year, Carlos Lee put up a 5.4 win season. He put up 3 more years between 3.5 and 4 wins
I just don’t see how it’s possible that Carter is, or will be, a worse defensive OF. Like Carter, Lee had never played the outfield (he was a brutal 3B) who was essentially getting his first taste of the new position as a rookie in the majors. But Carter is really a fantastic athlete. Lee was always a good athlete for being kinda fat.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:08 AM PDT reply actions
Well sure, he was a +15 that 5 WAR year in left.
Carlos Lee hasn’t been a bad defender until recently.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
He was awful from 1999-2001, and that's pre UZR data I believe
Not sure what FanGraphs uses for defense for those years, but trust me, it was Brad Hawpe bad. Lee would basically just wait till a ball stopped rolling and go pick it up.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Fangraphs data from those years is from Total Zone. He was around +1 or +2 those years, roughly average.
Not sure what you’re using.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 4, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Honestly, just remembering him being a complete abomination out there.
I probably watched him play 350 times in those seasons. I remember his first game (he homered).
I used to watch way, way too much White Sox baseball. If Lee, with his brutal defense, was average – something I’m not saying is impossible – that just proves that left fielders on the whole are terrible at defense. I think we already kinda knew this.
Why can’t Carter be somewhere in the middle among a group of bad fielders?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I honestly don't understand why Dunn makes any sense whatsoever for the A's
Sure the A’s need good hitters, but the A’s have giant vortexes of suck in the OF, and putting a guy who’s an awesome hitter and gives back a ton with his glove is a bad idea.
I do think Dunn is a better player than Cust. Even with park factors, Dunn’s the better hitter and can anchor a lineup. But, he’s not that much better than Cust, and the different between 1/4-5 and 3/36 or whatever Dunn gets is huge to the A’s, who have other, more significant holes than DH.
this is the clincher- He’s going to be offered a multi-year deal, 2 years, if not 3-4, by an NL team, definitely some semblance of a 3-year offer by DC, and maybe even more years by another team. Carter will probably be ready mid-season 2011, and Cust will cost like, 4MM, while Dunn will probably require a 3 year commitment. Now, Carter’s defense may improve or not be as bad as it meets the eye. Or, he may actually need the DH spot. So, having a guy who’s locked in at DH or as a horrible, atrociously bad defensive corner outfielder on a multi year deal isn’t a good idea. Give someone like that one year, not 3.
If Dunn was willing to sign a 2 year deal, he would’ve signed an extension with Washington already. He’s going to cost plenty.
And, the A’s have Daric Barton at 1B, and absolutely no reason to move him at this moment.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
He'd make a lot of sense for a team that actually needed a 1B
not the A’s, who have a really, really good 1B in Barton.
Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.
Don't all the available FAs basically have a defensive weakness
With the exception of Crawford (and I’m not sure how well he’ll hit in the Coli) and maybe Kemp? It’s pretty clear we’re going to get someone. I’m not quite sure how useful it is to keep saying that they suck defensively when they all do.
The few guys that don’t are just not going to be FAs for awhile.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Oct 4, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Werth is fine defensively
He had an off year this year, but it looks very aberrant next to the rest of his career.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Crawford might be a guy who isn't hurt too much by the park switch
He has a 30% fly ball rate for his career, so he might not be as prone to the Coliseum killing deep fly balls.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Oct 4, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Carter's LF defense
At this point in his career, I would say he is a true-talent -15 to -20 in left field. I’ve seen him about 10 times now, and I don’t like the way he throws (did anybody see his off-line throw yesterday to third base in a tag situation?), I don’t like his actions, I don’t like his routes – as others have said, he doesn’t have a discernible defensive skill at this point in his career.
That’s not to say he won’t improve – he absolutely will. But I think his ceiling is as a true-talent -10 defender in left. If that’s the case, he belongs at DH, as soon as Cust is no longer effective (or cost-efficient).
Someone mentioned Carlos Lee in this thread earlier. Carlos Lee is probably a better athlete than Chris Carter is. Lee has stolen 115 bases in his major league career. He’s a big boy, but he has (had) a burst of speed. I don’t think Carter has that gear. I don’t think Carter is a “terrific athlete” as somebody said above. Carter is a very strong man – he’s not a terrific athlete. Carl Crawford is a terrific athlete.
My dream scenario is that Crawford is signed, Carter is pushed to AAA, where he crushes pitching to the tune of a 1.000 OPS in Sac and plays every day in left, and then the team re-evaluates the Cust/Carter DH scenario after 2011.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
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