I think you made some great points. I also think it’s possible that Beane is consciously building his team exactly as you suggest. It makes sense – it’s pretty damn hard to hit a ball out of the Coliseum, so you might as well build a team around guys who can run decently when the balls they hit inevitably land in the field of play.

Is there some sort of runs scored / runs allowed projection system that would predict what our team would do under the scenario Nico describes?

Every time I saw Cardenas at Midland, he was always hitting the ball hard somewhere, but not generally HR power like Carter. Cardenas is a good hitter. Put him at 3B and stop worrying so much.

Go A’s in late 2010. That’s when it starts getting fun.

That puts you in the top 15 in the AL. You may get one guy who does that from a non-masher, but not up and down the lineup, and not every year. More likely, you’re looking at .750 OPS instead of .800.

Then the problem becomes the problem we’ve seen on the A’s the last few years: that when you have a lineup without any home run power, you absolutely cannot have any holes. A Bobby Crosby and/or a Jason Kendall with a .600 OPS in a lineup filled with doubles hitters with a .750 OPS will kill the offense. One or two guys who bust or have a bad year, and you’re really struggling to score runs.

The A’s really need Carter and Taylor to become consistent .900 OPS guys, so that when someone else on the roster fails to come through, as will inevitably happen, they can still score enough runs to win.

They’re just not enough to warrant going from B to B-.

It also shouldn’t matter because he’s not moving to 3B because he can’t play second, but because of organizational needs. Those should never be used to penalize a prospect, especially one who would still be playing second in a lot of other organizations.

As for doubles: I’ve been saying for a while that doubles (and triples, though those are harder to predict) are wildly underrated (as home runs are overrated). 53 players had 35+ doubles in 2009. They’re not all good hitters, but many of them are, and many of them just don’t get the hype they would with fewer doubles and a couple more homers.

Especially when you get 2-3 in a row.

There was a stretch in 2001 (I think that was the year) when Chavvy and Long - hitting around 5-6 in the order? - would connect slot for back to back doubles. It was a very efficient way to get 1+ runs on the board (+ depending on happened before and after they batted).

… even if a 12 homer guy is the 5th hitter.

I would give Barton a little more power credit, though. He’s hit 13 homers a year 3 different times. I have a hard time believing that he won’t at least have Hatteberg power.

by a lot, especially early in his career. Then again, I hope your right though.

Isn’t Mark Ibañez a local TV news guy?

is that it is very, very hard to score a lot with a “sequential” offense (meaning an offense that requires high-scoring innings with 5 of 6 hitters getting on base or something) in a ballpark with the biggest foul territory in baseball. Hitters will end up making a lot of outs in the Coliseum. You can compensate for that if they’re also hitting HRs, but it’s harder to compensate with 2Bs that require some kind of hitting sequence to score even 1 run.

However, as others have alluded to in this thread, an offense needs to combine doubles power with some other underrated skill sets like base running (not necessarily base stealing) and patience at the plate. When combined, these can erase a lot of the deficit brought about by a lack of home runs.

That having been said, I think that home runs are not necessarily overrated. They do in fact speak for themselves to a degree and can very effectively erase other offensive shortcomings.

So yeah, doubles power is underrated but only in the context of an offense that is more diverse in its approach, IMHO.

If Cardenas can hit .300 in his sleep and put up 35-40 doubles, he could give him an F for all I care, because he’ll be helping us get W’s.

is that it assumes that a HR is exactly twice as valuable as a Double. What is the real value? It’s similar to how OBP assumes that a single is just as valuable as a walk, when it’s actually slightly more valuable. If a Double is worth any more than half of a HR, then the HR hitters are getting inflated OPS’s while the double hitters are getting deflated OPS’s.

Good job Nico and elcroata and everyone.

I have long wondered about some of the same things you tackle in this thread. I would not all be surprised if this the type of team Beane is trying to build for the near future.

I really enjoyed the last part of the 2009 season when the A’s were running the bases and playing a more aggressive type of baseball.

I’d love to see a team that pitches well, plays great defense and makes things happen on the base paths.

It would still be nice to have a 30 home run bat on the team and who knows maybe Carter or Taylor will develop into one but I believe this type of baseball can work.

I know I’ve heard Billy say that the corners need to have power. Whether he follows what he says might be another thing altogether, but he certainly says it convincingly. And by power I am pretty sure he’s talking about hitting it out power, not into the alley power.

Where’s Coco Crisp in this line-up?