Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projects A's to Win the AL West

and I feel that the A’s are still a few years away from winning it all…

I’m concerned with the offensive production from the outfield; I think Sweeney could easily hit .272 BA /9 hrs with Davis and Crisp hovering around the .230- .245 BA mark.

I;m not sold on Barton either, and (IF) Chavez or Fox get hot (with bat) then we could see them sloted at 1B.

Damon signing is icing on the cake and overall I’m pleased with the job Beane is doing, except with his pick for skipper (Geren)

PECOTA is a pretty interesting algorithm for player projections, but BPro has to fumble along like everyone else when it comes to projecting lineups and playing time. Sounds like they didn’t get it right (but maybe we should think about that lineup, if it projects so well!).

On paper, the AL West looks like an exciting four team race. But my gut tells me that the A’s are going to drop out of the race once the injury bug starts to hit.

I voted Seattle because the front end of their rotation is just ridiculous and their defense will continue to be awe-inspiring.

my prediction for Oakland is the same as last year’s preseason:

most likely third place.

most optimistic finish: second

most pessimistic finish: last

For all AL west teams injuries will help determine how they do…but I don’t see Texas as being as strong as it was last year.

If we got just 1 more HR threat

;/

That rotation and defense is the best in the AL West and I think they can manufacture enough offense to win games.

I don’t think we’re gonna make a lot of noise though.

Anything more is icing.
Mmmmmmm icing

…Chris Kahrl addressed this in a chat yesterday and specifically stated that the team projections are going to be off a great deal because they do not yet reflect accurate assessments of playing time.

Wearing nothing but an A’s flag

Now that I have said this, we are sure to win, if for no other reason than mystical powers wish to spite me.

…it’s not out of the real of possibilities, but I do NOT see the Angels falling that far. I know they’ve lost some talent, but they’ll do much better than 76 wins.

Maybe not in the exact numbers, but definitely in the overall trend. A lot of players on the Angels team are the sort who are likely to decline. I think the conventional view of the Angels in 2010 (“never count them out…”) is biased by vague expectations from past performance and doesn’t look carefully enough at the team. This is exactly the sort of thing PECOTA was designed to see past.

I’m not convinced the Angels will finish at exactly 76-86, mind you, but I do think that virtually everyone I talk to, among both A’s fans and Mariners fans, is overestimating the Angels as a threat.

Is that PECOTA projects the AL West to be a very tight division race, which is consistent with what a lot of prognosticators are saying. With standings that close, pretty much any team can win it. Only two wins separate the first place from the third place teams, and the Angels are not predicted to be that far behind.

But the A’s are capable of winning 85 games if things break in their favor (they never do, but what the heck…dream the impossible dream). I think .500 is a good baseline goal and it seems feasible even with some trades near the deadline to make room for Cahill/whoever got farmed.

There should be plenty of GMs desperate enough to pay handsomely for Sheets and/or Duke as we close out the second third of the season. It’s my dream to see Ynoa net us something before he goes all Brien Taylor/Ariel Prieto on us as well, but I can see the wisdom in giving him a real chance first.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Billy will pull the trigger on another trade to bolster the offense if the situation presents itself. We have some excess commodities: anyone interested in a guy that throws 100 MPH but can’t hit the broad side of a barn? C’mon Minaya, you know you want him.

So, yeah. Seattle, Anaheim, then Oakland or Texas. Less than 10 games will separate the champ from the cellar-dweller. A’s go 82-80. Geren laconic.

 that PECOTA pick us to win the division last year also? I am pretty sure but cant remember.

1. Wow. I’m surprised stunned.
2. I’m pleased thrilled.
3. I’m less sure about the predictive value of PECOTA projections.

Any subscribers want to post some of the individual numbers, so we can see how Nate Silver got to this thrilling conclusion?

On paper, the teams are pretty evenly matched. No final order would surprise me. The A’s coming in third would be the most annoying though.

Billy Beane invented PECOTA! :X

Seriously, I see the AL West in this order:

1. Seattle
2. LAA
3. Oakland
4. Texas

Angels defied all odds last year when Adenhart went down (RIP)…but i don’t see them falling that much.

WE WIN!!!

That will save me a ton of money on tickets. Can we just go get beer now and celebrate?

simply based on the fact that I believe every team in the West has numerous question marks on their team that hinge on their success.

Oakland: The obvious, not going to summarize it again, we all know what needs to happen for this team to be successful.

LAA: Back end of the rotation must succeed, Pineiro needs to do better than last time he pitched in the AL, Brandon Wood and Matsui should be expected to produce as the rest of the lineup won’t maintain the career years they had last year. Hell, Kazmir also needs to prove that he can be an ace again.

Texas: Pitching must be solid the entire year, Davis must improve from sub-Custian territory with the bat, a healthy Guerrero and Hamilton.

Seattle: Everyone keeps mentioning that rotation but I fail to see how having a solid 1-2 and then a tremendous dropout for the final 3 spots of the rotation wins you 85+ games. The only other guy with big league success, Ryan Rowland-Smith, hasn’t pitched more than 150 innings since he started pro ball in 2001, so he’ll most likely flame out after 20ish starts. Of course off-season acquisitions Figgins and Kotchman must also show that they can hit in cavernous Safeco.

I know some of this may appear “nitpicky” but the point I am trying to make is that each team could just as easily fall 10 games plus under .500 as they could win 90 games…

…..just to have an OK year. I think this year for the A’s sees that if much goes right they really could win the division.

Of course that goes for the whole division this year. Which makes for what could be a great race.

For the A’s it’s the obvious need for health, particularly the starters. But I think what it comes down to is how the A’s hit.

Will it be one of those years the team performs with runners in scoring position? Or will it be an “unclutch” year? Will some of these kids “find themselves,” figure it out?

I think the A’s could win it. There are many many players who could realistically improve. I say that because they are of that age and have had a bit of seasoning now: Barton, Sweeney, Rajai (more likely for a regress only because he came on so much last year) and even Pennington could improve. Zooks is already there but his power could increase. Etc. That’s what you get with youth once they get past their figuring it out early stage. Could be (not counting on it) that Carter and/or Taylor come up in May or June and have good starts to their MLB career. Could be, like often happens, it’s someone we just didn’t think of (like Bailey.)

I do think people instinctually now (due to so many good years, and good years beating the predictions) overrate the Angels. They had a lot of guys seem to overachieve, they played with emotion for Adenhart, and then lost some of their best players, only replacing them with serious question marks (Piniero, Matsui.)

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

You need Fox and Cust’s bats to be in the lineup for most of the games to have an offense. But if you have both in, one of them needs to play the field.

Wow.

CF: Davis
RF: Sweeney
1B: Barton/Chavez (Chavez platooning/PHing til he gets hurt)
DH: Cust
C: Suzuki
3B: Kouzmanoff
LF: Crisp
2B: Ellis
SS: Pennington

Bench: Powell-Buck-Chavez-Miles. (Fox comes up when Chavez goes down. I’d prefer playing Raj in CF to LF, Patterson to Miles and Taylor to Buck, but whatcanyado?)

SP: Ducscherer-Anderson-Sheets-Braden-Gio
RP: Bailey-Devine-Weurtz-Ziegler-Breslow-Meloan-Kilby

Because that’s the best team we can field right now. I dont see Fox getting 300 ABs, he’d better learn 1B or LF better, as Kouz has 3B on lockdown. I’d be really curious to see how this version of the starting lineup projects:

1B: Carter
2B: Cardenas
SS: Pennington
3B: Kouzmanoff
C: Suzuki
LF: Taylor
CF: Davis
RF: Sweeney
DH: Cust

because that’s the lineup I’m looking forward to seeing out there the most, its more well-rounded in that it keeps things D-heavy yet adds hitting! What a beast!

Note: our AAA rotation will be better than a few big league ones: Cahill-Mazzaro-Eveland-Mortensen-Figeroa

Projection…It seems more real to me. At least as far as the AL West is concerned.

Unfortunately, you actually have to play baseball. And Bob Geren is the manager… so, we got that going for us. I guess.

Anyone can finish first or last (even the Angels), which is kinda fun, I guess.

What I don’t see is the Angels running away with it as they have the last three seasons (although Texas made it at least somewhat interesting last year). How dominant have the Halos been, in the AL West? Try 500 days in first place out of 586 (days in which they played, and at the end of the day were in first). The latest they have been in any position other than first since the beginning of 2007 is July 11.

Ok, now I’m depressed.

But seriously, it would be nice to see other teams- preferably the A’s- occupy the top spot for a change.

In this instance, Team WAR Projections are better to go by.

My unofficial ones came out….

Angels 84.1
Mariners 84.0
Rangers 82.0
A’s 79.5

- not saying they are god’s gift and all, but they are much more reasonable than what Pecota came up with. TB winning the East? I love me some Rays, but I don’t think so. It could happen, but it’s not the most likely outcome!

vr, Xei

these best of what I’ve seen. Note that it is pre-Kouz and Sheets for the A’s.

I picked Seattle. I think they’ve made the most improvements and their starting pitching is (IMO) the strongest (most proven I guess) to start the season… but I really love that they projected the A’s to win, I honestly did not expect that at all. I hope it pans out!! Here’s to an injury free 2010!!

about the season too, but 1st? Our problem is that we have so many injuries to contend with every year, and this year we have no power. I voted the Angles to win it again. They’re SP is good 1-5. Even their 5th starter owns us. And they do a good job of replacing lost talent. Last year everyone picked them to slide big time, and looked what happened, they ran away with the div. I’m not saying that will agian happen but I think they have enough to edge out the 2nd place team.

When they pushed these out yesterday, Christina Kahrl provided several caveats about how they haven’t completed projecting playing time, and now this today, according to BP’s Eric Seidman:

“Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates."

So, let’s not get all carried away with statistical projections at this point in time. BP does terrific work. Sometimes they are so anxious to please us who are anxiously awaiting their talents, we get to witness the “sausages being made.”

That said, GO A’S!

I feel like we have a good chance of not being in the basement for once.

Pros:
This team resembles the 2nd half team of 2009 but w/ better defense and speed!
Stocked rotation w/ lots of upside.
Legit power knocking on the Major League door.
No real front runner in the West.

Cons:
A’s injury history- is it all the damp nights?
Lack of offensive power.
No legit backup for SS and C (What if Zooks is out for 2 months god forbid, Powell- 7-8 games and he’d fall apart.).
Bob Geren.

Is it just me, but looking at Aaron Miles career stats he’s not atrocious as everyone is making out, he just had a terrible 2009- otherwise he’s just been uninspiring and meh.
Don’t get me wrong I’d still rather not have him on the 25 man but until anyone else can play short…

i don’t like this trend

With each team having obvious flaws and strengths… no one rises that far above anyone else and the thing I most agree with in the BP report is that no more than 10 or so games will separate all 4 clubs.

That said, I think we have as good a chance as any this time, thanks largely to BB’s Kouz and Sheets moves and the Halos taking a bit of a downgrade hit, although I in all honesty can’t see such a well-managed, perennial contender taking a 21-win tumble, especially in a tighter and more parity-oriented division where you play everyone else 19 times.

This is the first year maybe since I have followed the A’s (since 2001) that I could say it would not surprose me if any of the 4 teams won the West… although I think we all would say we’d like the Prospectus to be accurate in its 2010 prediction, nothing is that clear and if we do win it, I’d not expect it to be by more than the skin of our OBP, so the BP seems right in that regard LOL

but I actually find it encouraging that the A’s, instead of being an obvious dead last, have the potential tools to be in the hunt this year in what looks on paper to be one of the most competitive Western divisions we’ve seen in years. And if, as some have commented in this thread, the A’s will have a major league quality lineup in AAA, it is likely we will see good chunks of that lineup (and rotation) at the major league level by mid-summer. And that will be worth waiting for.

This was a .500 team last year by run differential, and by the deeper statistics weren’t they even a bit better?

And don’t forget, everything that possibly could go wrong, basically did go wrong.

The infield is vastly improved, I think the OF depth finally plays this year. The hitting prospects in the system are far enough advanced to begin making major league contributions should the injury bugs start to bite again (If the OF starts dropping like flies, Taylor and Carter are basically major league ready). The corner IF depth is as strong as it has been in years…

This team was constantly running Adam Kennedy out to 3B and Bobby Crosby out to 1B…And it was still a .500 quality team!!

I don’t have visions are hopes of them running away with the division or anything, but the pitching staff is just beastly and vastly underrated, and the offense couldn’t possibly be as bad as it was last year because the pitching should be better this year.

In 2009 every hitter on the team not named Rajai Davis (or Adam Kennedy for like 3 weeks) inexplicably sucked way worse than they ever had for their career or got hurt or both, which led to awful defensive configurations by players who couldn’t hit either.

I’d be more surprised by a clear sub-500 last place finish than I would be by a division title; that’s for sure.