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The Rajai Davis Trade Market

Ironically, Davis' success has made him a polarizing figure on AN in recent weeks, as seemingly each community member has picked sides:  ride this feel-good, improbable center field success story ...or sell high while we can?

This post won't answer that question....yet.  We have to find a few hypothetical trade partners and packages first.  You'll find that discussion after the jump. 

Star-divide

Before we get any further, let's remember that the concept of "The Rajai Davis Trade Market" would've sounded ridiculous one season ago, when Rajai was claimed off waivers from the Giants and posted .288 OBP in about 200 plate appearances for the A's.  That's part of why I doubt he'll be moved this offseason.  He was ignored league-wide for a long time, earning a mention at the bottom of this article; teams won't suddenly forget that when it comes time to talk trade.   

Despite being unheralded, however, Davis has been immensely valuable this season.  Fangraphs places the value of his 2009 performance at $16.7M , ahead of Torii Hunter, Carlos Beltran, and Curtis Granderson.  Davis has been worth a staggering $12.2M on offense alone in less than 400 at-bats, on the strength of a .374 BABIP.  (For some perspective, Ichiro's career BABIP is .359). 

He also fills a premium position with outstanding defense, which we'd expect to be a dire need for many teams.  Strangely, however, it doesn't appear to be.  Almost every team is pretty happy with its center field situation right now.

I prefaced my analysis with that for a reason:  I don't want you get your hopes up. 

Think about how hard it would be for the A's to reach a decent agreement for both sides on a Rajai Davis trade.  Is Billy Beane going to trade a cost-controlled, outstanding defensive center fielder who is (apparently?!) capable of hitting .300 in the AL for a minor league reliever?  I don't think so.  Especially not one who is a great locker room presence, has great work ethic and will be a good role model for Chris Carter and a host of young position players who will join the big-league roster in the next few seasons. 

So, the A's probably would desire a good starting pitching prospect, or a hitter who profiles as, "very likely to be at least an average major league regular."  But how many teams would really be willing to give up that for a player who they completely ignored less than two years ago when he was available for free through the waiver wire?  Especially when we consider that most of the league is pretty well-set in CF.

So, here goes:  a humble list of hypothetical teams.  I don't expect these guys to actively call Billy Beane. 

Milwaukee BrewersMike Cameron is a free agent, and the team probably can't afford to fill that void expensively, given their immediate needs in the rotation and at catcher.  The Brewers at a dangerous spot in the win curve; they won't be able to afford Prince Fielder in free agency and the next two seasons might be their best shot at returning to the playoffs for a while.  If they make a decision to go all in during those two years, it doesn't make much sense to keep 19-year-old Brett Lawrie, who has established himself (along with Casey Kelly of the Red Sox) as the very best of the high school draft class of '08.  Lawrie won't help the Brewers win anything during the next two seasons, but his maturation would line up very well with the A's projected run at contention.  Lawrie has been moved off catcher and is now playing second base; with the A's, who will be cost-controlled throughout their infield in two years, all Lowrie would really need to do is hit, even if in an outfield corner if necessary. 

Chicago White Sox:  Count the "ifs":  IF the White Sox decline Jermaine Dye's option and elect to cheaply improve their outfield defense, and IF they'd prefer Alex Rios to play in right field, and IF they are content to exercise Freddy Garcia's $1M option for '10 and make him his fifth starter, and IF Kenny Williams falls in love with Davis' gritty, Scott-Podsednickitty-style of grindiness, perhaps we have a match here.  But the only player I like left in this trade-stripped farm system is rocket--moving SP prospect Dan Hudson, who passed through four levels this season en route to the big league cup of coffee he's currently sipping on.  Hudson's a 22-year-old righty who's fastball tops out at 90 mph, which is the only reason that Williams - who seems to lean more toward "stuff" and scouting than sabermetrics - would perhaps consider him.  Doesn't it only seem proper that all right-handed SP prospects with unheralded stuff named "Hudson" get their big break in Oakland?  :)

 

The A's obviously have the relief depth to even up those deals if necessary; I merely included the principals (Davis for prospect X).

 

I'll leave you with this whopper, even less likely than the two above (It would make me sad, because it would cost the A's my two favorite players, both of whom seem to maximize every ounce of talent they have): 

Kurt Suzuki and Rajai Davis for B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro

(Again, those are just the principal names; you could make that infinitely more complex by adding quality major league relievers from the A's end to fuel the Rays' need to win now, and/or the A's taking on Burrell's salary to bring him back to the Bay Area and split OF/DH with Cust, the A's receiving a prospect not named Jennings in return, etc.)

What do you all think?

5 recs  |  Comment 408 comments

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If no one is willing to give you much back

then hold onto him. brett lawrie, however, i would love to have.

by SwishMyNish33 on Sep 27, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the great analysis

I think it’s important to factor in that Davis plays a position for which the A’s don’t have a replacement on the way especially soon. So to deal him leaves the team with an additional hole (unless you feel Sweeney is a good option in CF, in which case you can soon replace Davis with Doolittle, maybe Carter, etc.). I don’t want to get a good pitching prospect, for example, in exchange for creating another hole, at a key position, at the big league level.

The reality about Rajai is that even if he doesn’t hit well he is a very good defensive CFer — the only one the A’s have — and a great speed presence when he does get on. So if he hits .280/.360 he’s great, but if he hits .250/.320 he still has value.

For a major league ready SS or power hitting corner OFer? Sure. But for just “good value,” while creating a hole in CF? No.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 10:06 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Is centerfield really that large of a hole?

Sweeney is definitely an option in CF. His UZR has fluctuated ridiculously over his two years (and some change), so it’s likely somewhere in the middle, around average. But after him, at AAA, you have Cunningham and Denorfia who are both capable and ready, and at AA, you have Corey Brown (a legit prospect), Shane Peterson (a decent prospect), or if you want to get creative, Weeks and Wimberly.

Just because you don’t have a guy like Colby Rasmus or Andrew McCutchen knocking on the door doesn’t mean you’re system is barren at a position. IMO, if you were a GM and you had Rajai Davis having an outrageously lucky season (.374 BABIP) and somebody offered you a good prospect, you’d be an idiot not to sell high.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Sep 27, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Cunningham has CF tools defensively,

nor Denorfia offensive tools. My point about guys like Corey Brown are they are far from “sure things.” Really the only guy who looks like both a good bet and a good enough player is Ryan Sweeney, whom I don’t like all that much in CF but it’s livable.

But contrast it to the situations at 1B, or even “corner OF” (where Doolittle and Carter join the conversation with Hairston, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham) and I’m not thrilled about creating a Davis-less gap in CF with the contenders we currently have for the job.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My position on this is that such a "gap" is easily filled through money, which the A's have,

and gaps at other positions much less so. The difference between the available free-agent center fielders and, for instance, the available free-agent shortstops is night and day.

There’s an opportunity here for the A’s to move Rajai Davis to a cash-strapped team, sign a replacement, and thus essentially “buy” some prospects.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like the most logical one would be Cameron,

but sadly he no likey the West Coast. :-(

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's odd, given that his heyday was in Seattle

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't he sign in SD at one point too?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Sep 27, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, he was there during their last playoff appearance

when they lost to Colorado in the one-game in 2007.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Traded

Spurned the A’s and signed with the Mets. Later traded to the Pads for X Nady.

by NRC on Sep 27, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no Cameron please...

Davis is fine, thanks.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't really want Cameron either.

He’s gonna be expensive and he’s getting old….Raj is cool with me and I’d also like to see him in the leadoff spot in 2010. Nice post NSJ!

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Sep 28, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're putting far too much stock in Davis' offensive tools.

I don’t know how much faith you have in projection systems (ZiPS predicts a .305 wOBA the rest of the season from Davis), but everybody must realize that a .374 BABIP is completely unsustainable. When you’re outperforming Ichiro’s career BABIP, you’re going to regress.

You say that prospects such as Corey Brown are “far from ‘sure things’” like Rajai is just that.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Sep 27, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't, for a minute, expect Rajai to continue his current pace

I just think it’s possible he’ll regress to .280/.350 rather than to .250/.300, and at .280/.350, with his speed and defense, he’s a very good player.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The notion that .280/.350 represents his average level of performance for next season is simply untenable

No offense, but this comment reeks of homerism.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't especially expect him to hit at that level

I just wouldn’t be stunned if he did.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have an idea

We could talk about the level at which we actually do “especially expect” him to hit. And then evaluate him based on that.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pwnage

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unhelpful.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How about his career totals in the majors:

.282/.339/.390…?

That’s a league average .333 wOBA, good enough to make him a very valuable player with his excellent CF defense…

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Sep 27, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okey dokey

Over the past 7 years the cumulative OBP for AL CFers has ranged between .324 – .340. The slugging percentage has ranged from .405 – .437. (It should be noted, .437 has been reached twice. In no other season did it pass .414.)

So some quick Kentucky windage calls for a .330 OBP and a .420 slugging, or a .750 OPS.

Can Rajai reach that level in 2010?

Discuss.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Added to all that...

Fangraphs ranks Davis as the 5th best defensive CF in 2009. Plus/Minus ranks him 6th. Bill James also ranks Davis as the 4th best baserunner in baseball (counting both SB and baserunning proficiency).

Simply put, if Rajai Davis can produce average offense for his position he brings enough “other” skills to the table to be an extremely valuable player.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with that statement

Of course, I also have no problem with the statement “If I am William T. Sherman, then Rajai Davis is an extremely valuable player.”

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But ARE you William T. Sherman?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought he was dead

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Key word.

thought

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm late to the party

Is thinking not allowed on this thread?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, we just randomly throw shit out without bothering to fact check!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait.

Is PT a famous Civil War general or not?!

Damn it, I can never follow these stat-based arguments!

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 28, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even if you aren't Billy Sherman

do you think Rajai Davis can manage a .330 OBP next year?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd expect him to put up something like .270/.330/.370 next season

which puts him in the roughly-league-average range.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hang on -- you're telling me that

.280/.350 is an untenable thought but you expect .270/.330? You act like there’s a cavernous gap between your expectation and what I’m saying is perfectly possible.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Assuming a concomitant change in slugging percentage to go along with the OBP change,

that’s like a 10 run swing over a full season.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The thing about Rajai

is that he has tools to turn a lot of walks and singles into “doubles.” Granted, a double is still more valuable than a “single and steal” or a “walk and steal,” but to me Raj’s slugging pct is less vital than, say, Sweeney’s or Barton’s, in that he gets some of those bases back in a different way.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well then you should be concerned about OBP

because Rajai has the potential to turn a lot of those singles and walks into Caught Stealings. because the 11 times that he has been thrown out trying to steal represents .027 points of OBP which puts him at very blah .337 level. that represents 8 runs over the season if you pretend like Rajai never got on base. If his OBP is at a .330 level that is a problem since his OBP in your conjugation would be .303.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My solution for that is simple:

Rajai should not have the green light against LHP as often as he does. He simply does not read moves well enough at this point.

I’d like to see him run roughshod on RHPs, and steal 3B on LHPs, but bring his stealing % up (at the expense of a few steals) by not trying to steal 2B so much on LHPs.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rajai's SB% is down this year

Last year he was 29/35, the year before 22/28, which put him way over the break-even point. His 40/51 this year is a shade below 80%, which is good but not really great.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW, I saw Paul Bako (the catcher)

get picked off by Kiko Calero on a 3-2 hit-and-run the other day. Not a great way to lobby for some playing time in the post-season.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He should try his Josh Paul

“roll the ball back to the mound because the inning is ov— oops.”

As for Rajai, I think if he picked his spots better — which is to say if Geren picked his spots better by putting the “red light” on more against LHP — Raj could steal, say, 35/42, which would work well.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is another one of those "wow, he's still in the majors?!?" moments

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And what does the 40 SB do for his slugging?

Hey, if you’re going to do half the equation…

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 28, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ironically it increases it by .027pts

the problem is that OBP is worth 1.7x SLG. It would make a roughly .342 wOBA if every time he got thorown out it was trying to steal 2b (if he was thrown out trying to steal 3b he would lose even more value) So using this method of accounting Rajai is actually loses 4.6 wRAA or about half of his batting runs or half a win because of his legs.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a bizarre calculation

and missing some key factors relating to situational leverage within an inning.

Luckily, it’s not really necessary, because we know what the break-even point for SB is (roughly 70%). We can thus exclude roughly 25 of Rajai’s SB. The remainder, valued at about a quarter of a run each, is worth about 4 positive runs, which is fine.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think its especially valid

but I would be interested to know if SB were added to the hit that they followed and

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ooops

CS eliminated the hit how that would affect wOBA and if that had any correlation to the real value of the batting.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is the third time in this thread

PT has called an idea “bizarre”.

It makes me want to watch one of those old Byner sketches with the T-shirt slogan conversation.

Good times.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The question is...

…Does this predict the use of “bizarre” a fourth time?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is right though... it is the wrong way of going about it.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball is Hell

Rajai Davis could have marched through Georgia

by eliot123 on Sep 28, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

He has a career line of .308/.375 in the minors. The last time he had anywhere close to full-time play (most-time play?) in the majors (2007) he put up .279/.361 in 190 ABs. Why is he expected to regress to the one year in his career (2008) in which he averaged less than two PAs per game in which he appeared? I would think something like .280/.350 or .290/.350 would be reasonable.

by DDroney on Sep 27, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know what his MLE line for his most recent three minor league seasons was?

.237/.289/.307.

I’ve said this before and I will no doubt say it again— Rajai Davis’s minor league career does not even remotely support the idea that he is a quality major league hitter.

I still haven’t seen piece one of evidence to support this notion that regular playing time is somehow uniquely beneficial to Rajai Davis above all other players. As far as I can tell it’s simply a rather transparent justification for cherrypicking away his worst MLB numbers.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

However, it would be more than fair to say

that once a player has gotten some experience in the Show it is likely that his true level of ability (however good or bad that may be) will show.

Rajai Davis came into this season with 418 career at bats spread out over 3 years and both leagues. Improvement over his pre-2009 career line could have been expected if he was given consistent playing time.

I don’t think Rajai repeats a .370 BABIP next season but I think some of his production stems from real improvement in his game. The question is how much?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

really?

I was surprised by that so I looked up his 2007 MLE here and got .288/.342/.434. Were 2005 and 2006 really that bad?

by DDroney on Sep 27, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, plus he had a lot more minor-league at-bats in those seasons

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where are you getting that spreadsheet from?

Usually MLE data is accessed easiest from minorleaguesplits.com

From there you can see that Rajai’s MLE in 07 was .271/.331/.374.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 27, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

cool, thanks

I found that spreadsheet on a blog after some google searches.

by DDroney on Sep 28, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is likely a discussion for another thread, but

I don’t understand how they adjust for luck. According to minorleague splits, Rajai has had an inflated babip all three seasons that they track. How do they decide that his babip should be .308 (without factoring in the park)?

by DDroney on Sep 28, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't use the luck splits at minorleaguesplits for hitters

although if a guy puts up a truly outlandish BABIP they might be useful to get an eyeball look at what his numbers might be in a more normal year.

But the luck translation is mostly intended to be used for pitchers.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

okay, but I think they do factor luck somehow in calculating MLE

The site doesn’t give their exact formula, but plugging Davis 2007 numbers into their MLE calculator (which asks about league and park, but not BABIP) gives him an MLE AVG of .277 for that season, not the .271 that you get on his player page.

I couldn’t get his OBP because I didn’t look up his walks.

by DDroney on Sep 28, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like a flaw with MLEs to me.

I’m starting to think the way age factors into those calculations makes them garbage. It’s reasonable to infer that a player younger than their league performing at a certain level projects better, but not as much reason to belief that a player older than their league performing at a certain level is a mirage.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeez, when will I ever learn to proofread?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

Usually those players hit like Tommy Everidge or Eric Patterson.

It’s not like there aren’t a bunch of examples sitting in front of you… the vast majority of players who do not make the majors by age 25 suck ass.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Applying the same standard to performance for players

when they’re below the average age that you do for players above it isn’t logical. They’re fundamentally different, and not equal, situations. Sure, it’s likely high performance when old is due to being old, but it’s far from the only possibility. High performance while young is much more equivocal. Unless I’m uneducated about how MLE applies the age standard, it gives the old player short shrift.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

MLEs are just translations of batting lines; age has nothing to do with it

Rajai’s MLEs were low in those numbers PT gave because the two years where he had the most PAs, he opsed .720 and .684, which is the equivalent of “really shitty” in the majors.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Sep 28, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry

but I’m not certain which metric or site you’re using to define “really shitty”.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 28, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good to know; thanks.

So we’re all just cherrypicking numbers, regardless of which side we’re on.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

pretty much...

hell, even I pulled that “+1” out of my ass!

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that's where it came from,

it was probably really a +2.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice!

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lol

I can’t figure out where you got that from in MikeA’s post, but regardless, you’re way out of line saying it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

1. He included the good half-year (2007).
2. Using his entire minor league line in MLEs would have made it look worse.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Sep 29, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

3. Minorleaguesplits only goes back to 2005.

This being now the second time in about a week that I’ve been wrongly accused of cherrypicking… would it really be too much for people to ASK me where I got my data and why before basically calling me intellectually dishonest?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

silly PT

Don’t you realize that you don’t need facts or logic when you are trying to bash someone?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 29, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The really ironic thing

is that if I had included pre-2005 years I could rightly be accused of manipulating data unfairly. Everyone’s MLEs are terrible when they’re in A ball (for obvious reasons— it’s vanishingly rare to see a player promoted to the majors straight out of single-A).

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not calling you intellectually dishonest.

Just pointing out that your way isn’t the only way to view Rajai Davis’ minor-league career.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 29, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cherrypicking is intellectually dishonest.

This is not a complex syllogism here.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a poor word choice, then

I think I saw the phrase somewhere else in this thread.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 29, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not just look at the whole progression?

And he included his shittiest year (by an order of magnitude)…

Anyway, I see a player who proved he mastered low A in his first full year there, proved he mastered A+ the following year, but took 2 1/2 years to master AA/AAA. That’s hardly a gigantic suckfest.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 29, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think you quite understand what the phrase "order of magnitude" means

Also: your definition of “gigantic suckfest” may vary, I suppose, but very few players who struggle at AA/AAA for 2.5 years are ever worth anything at the major league level. Based on where he was in mid-2007, Rajai has already performed at like his 90th percentile outcome even if he were never to play another major league game.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I understand exactly what it means, thanks.

Looking at his whole career, it’s entirely reasonable to believe that he’s simply taken longer to achieve mastery at the higher levels. The same can be said of his major league career.

It’s just as reasonable as believing he’ll fall off some cliff next year.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 29, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really

Players with .370 BABIPs fall off cliffs regularly. Players who struggle (during their prime years) for several seasons at high levels do not suddenly become good regularly.

It’s only “just as reasonable” if you ignore baseball history.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 30, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll just have to agree to disagree, then.

Being an outlier is not necessarily flying in the face of baseball history. Davis won’t be as good as he was this year, but he’ll still be a useful starting centerfielder for somebody next year.

I’m not sure you understand what the word “several” means, either.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 30, 2009 6:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

TotalZone hates Denorfia’s defense in CF and I’m not too enamored with his .715 OPS. TotalZone isn’t too keen on Cunningham’s D either. Corey Brown is a legit prospect with contact issues and a need to stay more healthy.

Basically, no one you mentioned from the farm entices me enough to look to move Davis at this time.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 27, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

which is sad, because I like him...

one of my favorite RiverCats this year, along with Carson,

and I sincerely hope that both of them abandon the American dream and go get a decent paycheck next year in Japan or Korea.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright.

But I never said anything about looking to move Davis. You never try to trade a player and receive less value in return, unless you are in desperate need of salary relief or it’s Milton Bradley. But if one of the above circumstances arose…the Brewers said, “Psh! Brett Lawrie? What we need is some Rajai Davis!” You make the move and live with the serviceable replacements in the meantime.

Other AN users might be putting them in Beane’s seat and start urgently trying to move this cheap/baserunning whiz kid/premium position playing/old-school high sock wearer/team controlled defensive stud. But that isn’t what I said. What I said is if a desperate team with an even more desperate GM came to you and offered to overpay for this over-achiever, you can easily live with the in-house replacements or buy some cheap talent to make up for the gap (as PT has said over and over).

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Sep 28, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You haven't said "looking to move"

but many other people have, including and especially PT.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't mean "hold a fire sale on the guy"

I’m perfectly willing to accept that there may not be any sufficient offers out there. Toronto was “looking to move” Halladay, too— but no one met their asking price. So he’s still a Jay.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To finish the thought

More often than not, when “looking to move” someone or something, there’s a better than average chance you’re not going to get a good return for it.

If the A’s get something good for Rajai Davis, it’s far more likely going to happen because someone called Billy Beane about him, not the other way around.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 29, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure...

If someone is tripping all over themselves to make a stupid move then of course you take advantage of them. You can worry about backfilling behind Davis later.

But if we’re being realistic, and we’re talking about a potential trade that is much more fair to both sides, then we need to ask if any potential drop-off from losing Davis can be offset by the new acquisition.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 28, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

we need to ask if any potential drop-off from losing Davis can be offset by the new acquisition.

I think this is very important, and its why I really don’t understand what people are talking about when they say Davis “should” be traded.

Put it this way: lets say Davis regresses substantially, and contributes an average of 0.7 WAR the next four seasons, he’d be worth about 3 WAR total over the next four years. Even if this bleak scenario plays out, I think its still questionable whether any player(s) the A’s would get for Davis would meet this low threshold of 3.0 WAR (as others have said, CF is a relatively well-stocked position and Davis’ true talent level is questionable).

Now if the A’s got Hudson for Davis they could expect to see positive returns on the deal as soon as next year. Likewise, for Frazier or Lawrie there’s a fairly probable chance their investment would valorize a couple years down the road. But I don’t think the A’s will get anything that good for just Davis.

If they get a good bullpen arm and a low-minors C+/B- prospect (think Shane Peterson, Tyler Ladendorf), which I think is a more likely offer, again there’s a good chance this group of players will not amount to 3 wins.

As a caveat, this doesn’t mean the A’s should keep trotting Davis out for four years if he really is a 0.7 win player. That’s a purely hypothetical scenario, and to discuss the ramifications of keeping around a bad rajai, you’d have to take a lot of other factors into account (playing time/salary/the opportunity cost of a roster spot/the likelihood that over the next four years even a Peterson or Spencer would outperform him as a fourth OF). What I’m getting at though, is that Davis has some value even if that value is not much, and as a team that is not looking to dump salary, and isn’t rebuilding so much as maturing, the A’s have no reason to sell on Davis unless they’re genuinely convinced they’re getting something back with more value.

I don’t think the A’s will get this, and Davis will be in an Oakland uni next Spring.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Sep 28, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Kurt Suzuki and Rajai Davis for B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro

howaboutno.gif

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 27, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you make that JUSTIN Upton I'm all for it.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know thats not possible, but I love me some Justin Upton

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Sep 28, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

THIS.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Sep 27, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats wise

  Suzuki is the second base catcher in AL behind Mauer. Why would you trade a leader on and off the field for a nother outfielder.

by Arcman on Sep 27, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as it pains me to say it...

AJ Pierzynski is probably ahead of him offensively (which I’m assuming is what you meant by “stats wise”). Victor Martinez is, too, if you consider him a catcher—he’s caught in 80 games this year. V-Mart probably isn’t even in the same league defensively, but AJ isn’t really a slouch behind the plate.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Sep 27, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Rajai were on some hypothetical 31st team,

and you made the same speculative list of possible trade partners, Oakland would be near the top of the list as a team that could really use him.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 27, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

3-way deal!

We trade Rajai and Wuertz for someone, then turn around and deal that player to get Rajai and fill our CF needs!!!!

Wait.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sounds like a good case for the A's keeping Davis

and penciling him in as the 2010 leadoff hitter and starting centerfielder

I also think Suzuki is more valuable to the A’s than both Upton and Navarro (though I’ve been an Upton fan for awhile).

by OaklandSi on Sep 27, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Responses:

I agree with most who have replied that none of the above packages entices me enough to make it worth letting go of Davis. In truth, that’s what I expected to find before I ever started analyzing this league-wide. But it was worth the exercise for me, because several thoughtful ANers have brought up the idea of selling high on Davis in recent weeks.

Davis’ stats suggest selling high on him, yes. But I feel this analysis shows that the market for his services isn’t enough to justify the hole that trading him would leave behind.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 27, 2009 11:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Definitely a useful exercise

I’m sure there will be plenty of occasion to link to this discussion over the weeks and months to come.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 27, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think many confuse "he won't have a long window of success" with

“he’ll go back to being terrible starting next spring.” The A’s need to find and use the Jeff Tams and Kirk Saarlooses, guys who may fall into obscurity in a couple years but can give you a couple really solid seasons now, cheap.

I don’t see Rajai Davis being a very good player in 2012-13, but I could see him being a good player in 2010-11, which is precisely when he’s under contract to the A’s at an affordable cost.

Enjoy his good years and let someone else overpay for past performance when he’s had his small window of goodness.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yep

I’ve said this before – I could see him have a Dave Roberts-like career, complete with some overpay FA free agent seasons.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 27, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see any of these as being realistic besides Chicago

Lawrie is one of the better prospects in the bigs, and there is no way that they would trade Lawrie for Davis especially with Davis entering arbitration and beginning to get expensive.

I want nothing to do with Navarro.

Hudson might work but considering Chicago’s rotation I don’t think they would be willing to give him up.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure on that.

With 1-4 set, I don’t think Hudson is necessarily off limits. The offense and mainly their defense have been their problems. The starting pitching has been strong, although they are sorely lacking in the depth position. And of course its Kenny Williams, who isn’t gun shy by any means.

Of course Hudson is on the table for someone who can hit well and play good defense.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Sep 27, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kenny Williams is kind of nuts

and I don’t get what he is doing with that organization, so yes it is possible but if I wasn’t him I wouldn’t trade Hudson for Davis.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since his call up, Hudson's fastball is averaging 93.7 mph.

If he can dial it up into the mid-90s on occasion his ceiling could be quite a bit higher than the “solid middle of the rotation” tag often attached to him (although for the A’s he would be a very solid middle-rotation pitcher behind Anderson and Braden). Davis for Hudson would be a coup. I would trade anyone on the A’s roster not named Anderson, Cahill or Suzuki for Hudson in a one-for-one swap. I really hope Kenny Williams is that crazy.

On a related note, what’s up with pitchers who throw harder than their minor league scouting reports suggested they would? Maybe I’m being deceived by a few localized incidents – Anderson, Outman and Gio all started beating their alleged MiLB velocities pretty quickly after being called up.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Sep 28, 2009 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

great detail, thanks

Hudson’s been throwing out of the pen a bit since his call-up, which will sometimes help a pitcher’s velocity. Another factor for him, and the guys you mentioned (at least when they first came up) is just the sheer adrenaline of reaching The Show. It would make sense that a guy dials it up the first few times he faces big-league hitters. Nice to know he can even reach 93.7, thanks for telling us that.

I think another factor in the pitchers you mentioned is they were called up during a phase when they were still physically maturing. It’s possible they just gained a tick on their fastball due to 21-22 year-old physical maturation.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 28, 2009 4:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson is a freaky case.

His velocity has gone up substantially month after month. In the minors, he was an 88-90 guy. He started this season at 91. Now he’s closer to 94. That’s phenomenal.

I’m convinced that Anderson has a robotic arm or something.

Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think his explanation is simpler.

He never bothered being in shape before, because he didn’t need to in order to be successful. As opposed to Edgar Gonzalez, who is content to be fat and suck.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

did Anderson say this?

not the part about Edgar Gonzalez being fat and sucking, of course.

But has Brett said publicly that he is finally getting motivated to get in shape?

by colin on Sep 28, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's commented several times

about addressing his workout regimen this year and it reaping huge benefits.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think its a motivation thing

as much as a trainer on site demanding he do certain things.

by Future Ed on Sep 28, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also food

minor leaguers don’t get paid all that well and are on the road. If you are 19 where are you going to spend your $20 a day per diem? fast foods or whole foods? In the MLs they have chefs for the clubhouse much much better pay and much much better per diems as well as being around older athletes who know that you can eat your way out of this game.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems rather strange to me that big league clubs don't spend more time on stuff like that.

I mean trickling money down to the minor league teams so they are better taken care of.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 28, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Major leaguers have a union

Minor leaguers don’t.

There’s your explanation.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Union or not

It sure seems like it might behoove the big leagues squads to, say, donate a super nice workout room or trainers room or WHATEVER to each of their minor league teams.

Minimal cost for what could be substantial gains, I’d think.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 28, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A 94-mph throwing Brett Anderson in AA

would have given a more accurate portrait of his talents.

Of course, if that were the case, Arizona may never have parted with him.

I won't heal, given time.
I won't try to change your mind.
I won't feel better in the cold light of day.
But I wouldn't stop you if you wanted to stay.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based on what I heard during the Rafael Furcal saga,

I wonder if it wouldn’t behoove one big league squad to donate a super nice workout room to the Oakland Coliseum.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 points 2 make

Player’s union doesn’t give a crap about minor leaguers.

Wal-Mart pays better than AA.

by redtopcowboy on Sep 28, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But neither will give promotions to women

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't mind getting Bossman Jr, but I wouldn't give up Suzuki to do it.

He may get sold cheap in the offseason, and the A’s have stuff the Rays would want, starting with Bailey. Bailey, Rajai, Hairston and something for Upton, Iwamura and Brignac or some such thing sounds like a possible starting point.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 27, 2009 12:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The only thing that offer is a starting point for is a polite invitation to go boil your head

How about this suggestion: Davis for Crawford, straight up. Rays get salary relief, more years of control, and a player who isn’t too much worse. A’s get probable draft picks and a better player during the window where he’s really needed the most, and they’re not short of money.

Thoughts?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wouldn't this be a PR nightmare for the Rays?

I feel like Crawford is too highly thought of for a trade like this to work even if it makes sense.

by ohmangoAs on Sep 27, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, their salary situation isn't as bad as I thought it was

I guess the Kazmir trade freed things up a bit.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, and I'm not sold that the A's can't win in 2010

The Angels look due to regress and the other two clubs aren’t assured to improve next year.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, what?

That trade would help the A’s win in 2010.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Rays have Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce.

If they move B.J. (which I don’t know why everyone seems to think he’s gotta go, he’s a very solid player who was still above average this year; the “lazy” issues don’t exist) or Carl, I don’t see them moving either for another MLB outfielder.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 27, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're probably right

It makes much less sense without the salary-dump angle.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Celebrity in the house

Thanks for stopping by, R.J.! For those who don’t know, R.J.’s a great regular writer on fangraphs.

R.J., I’m curious: how does an educated non-A’s fan like yourself value Kurt Suzuki? For that matter, how confident are you in a Dioner Navarro resurgence? It would seem that, if the Rays don’t have faith in him, that catcher would be a focal point to upgrade, and that Suzuki represents one.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 27, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davis is much much worse than Crawford.

Regarding the other idea being head-boil worthy, consider this:

Upton — Career .354 wOBA, Career +10 in CF, so maybe a 4.5 WAR more or less
Iwamura — .331, +0 at 2B/3B, 2.5 WAR more or less
Brignac — no WAR, a flier at a position of need

Hairston — .326, +2 in CF, no full seasons, 2.5 WAR
Davis — .333, +10, no full seasons, 3 WAR
Bailey — 2.59 Career FIP, but 6.35 ZiPS RoS projected FIP, so maybe 1.5 WAR

I’m not seeing a whole lotta difference here. It’s arguable which side is going to make the head boiling suggestion.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 28, 2009 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you're counting Brignac as worthless, then yes, that suggestion is more understandable

But that’s a totally bizarre assertion. He’s a 23 year old quality defensive shortstop who hit at league-average levels in AAA this season and has been better in the past.

The other problem is that, while Hairston and Davis might putatively be worth 5.5 WAR if you gave them full seasons of playing time, the Rays can almost certainly find another outfielder like Matt Joyce who, along with Upton, is worth more than 5.5 WAR. The Rays want to turn quantity into quality, not the other way around.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cameron's analysis certainly suggests that moving him would be difficult

but you’re missing a number of potential trade partners. The Reds have used a lot of Chris Dickerson this season, but his numbers look even more regression-prone than Davis’s do, and a lot of Laynce Nix, who’s just terrible. They also have a bunch of real, live third base prospects, like Todd Frazier.

The Blue Jays currently feature only three real starting-caliber outfielders, and one of them is uber-bust Vernon Wells. Wells is also a defensive disaster, flanked by at best an indifferent pair in Adam Lind and Travis Snider, both of whom would probably be DHing in an ideal world. Their system is pretty much bone-dry at this point, but… what if he was part of a package used to acquire Aaron Hill? I don’t know if that would be a good idea, but it is something to think about. Or maybe not, since this is probably as good as Hill is going to get. That’s true of Davis too, but probably not of the 2 or 3 other good prospects the A’s would likely be sending in return.

The Giants are clearly a non-option as long as Sabean is there, but his contract is up after this season. Their outfield is a fallout zone right now— Aaron Rowand/Fred Lewis/Nate Schierholtz is not an inspiring collection. (I have to admit to a personal prospecting failure here, as I thought Schierholtz would be substantially better than this by now. I’m much too easily suckered by corner outfielders with big power but poor strike zone judgment— see also Balentien, Wladimir.) A new GM would potentially have the political capital to bring Davis back. It’s unclear what would be required in return, though. The Giants don’t have a lot of maneuvering room at this point.

Then there’s the D-Backs. They seem like they should be awesome, but actually really suck. I’m not really sure what’s going on down there. Most of their players seem to be either untouchable or terrible, so probably not worth bothering with. Not much in the farm.

The Reds seem like the most promising candidate. They have a clear need in the outfield, since they don’t really even have two acceptable starters out there right now, and a surplus of talent at a position where the A’s have a shortage.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I appreciate your reply, thank you

When I was initially thinking this post over early in the week, it also included the Reds (with Frazier being the desirable “get” in return), and the Cubs.

With the Cubs, I thought that perhaps Fukudome would fit better in RF, and that Bradley is likely gone, opening up the spot for Davis. But really, they could just leave Fuke in center, and give some additional ABs to Hoffpauir (sp) and Fox. Plus, the Cubs are a bad fit prospect-wise because they won’t possibly give up Vitters and the rest of their prospects look uninviting.

As for the Reds:

Hal McCoy wrote an article that basically said he was “all but certain” that Drew Stubbs would be starting in CF for them next spring, despite the $3Mish owed to Big Willy Style Taveras. That was enough to keep me from including them in this piece. Although, furthering your point, Rajai Davis seems like a Dusty Baker kind of guy if there ever was one. I agree that they should’ve been kept in the piece, especially given Frazier’s ideal fit.

I can’t see the Jays and D-Backs giving up on Wells and Young at this juncture, even if perhaps they should.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 27, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats not really accurate in terms of the Cubs system

It has gotten a lot better. Hak-Ju Lee or Starlin Castro would be a huge coup as SS prospects, even Flaherty is a pretty good MI prospect. The also have Jay Jackson, Chris Carpenter, or Andrew Cashner who have had great years if you want to go with pitching prospects.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best name ever
Starlin Castro

It’s like two dictators plus star power.

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Sep 27, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jays wouldn't even need to "give up on Wells"

All they’d have to do is rotate him, Snider and Lind through corner OF and DH. They have got to get him out of center field and at least contain the damage a bit.

Re: the Reds, if they think Drew Stubbs is the answer, then they can’t be helped. That’s just a bizarre viewpoint.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Might be more of a public move than anything else

Currently, they don’t have alternative options so he’s their guy. If they could swing a deal that made sense for them, they still may be interested. Never trust an article like that.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Sep 27, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're glutted with OFers

I also don’t think its bizarre to think of Stubbs as a potential CF. Jay Bruce is going to play right. After that there are a half dozen guys like Balientin who are fringey. Ideally, one would step up.

by JetSam on Sep 28, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know the Mets don't have much in their minor league system

but Manuel was on the radio the other day talking about needing to have a fast OF that can catch the ball, given the dimensions of CitiField. They have a giant, gaping void in LF. Since Beltran had bad knee problems this year, could they consider putting Davis in CF with Beltran in LF and Francoeur in RF? If Francoeur can get back to being a good RF, that would actually be a good defensive outfield.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That seems to work, but at this point I think Angel Pagan seems like a similar option to Davis, and they already have him, so they dont have to give anything away.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

If there were an opening, it would be based on Minaya’s need to win now — if they fail to make the playoffs next year, it won’t matter much to him how good a player Pagan is in 3 years, because Omar won’t be there to benefit from it.

Not that Raj would be a guaranteed difference-maker or anything, but the franchise’s lousy track record of late could encourage (self-destructive) short-term thinking on their part. Maybe Davis + Wuertz (talk about selling high…) would tempt Minaya.

In any case, from a practical standpoint, Beane would never just call up Minaya and say, “Whataya got for Davis?” He’d call him asking about someone in the Mets’ system somewhere, and let Minaya state his price. Or Minaya would call asking about Davis, and Beane would say what he wanted in return.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Angel Pagan is a pretty freakin' awesome name, too.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 27, 2009 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so true.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 28, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I keep expecting to see the illustration

from a heavy metal album cover.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with Nico...

…on keeping Rajai, and the amount of “regression” he’ll end up having. And I’d like to see him back in green n’ gold for another couple of years (gotta get value out of that jersey!), but I’ve proposed the idea that the Cubs look at him over at BCB.

Dome would probably be better off in RF, and I could easily see Rajai in CF. Depending on whether or not Soriano decided to phone it in during 2010, that could be a solid outfield. Milton is almost definitely gone from the team in the off season.

My problem: the Cubs are looking for that proverbial “big bat”, and Rajai doesn’t fill that need. He’s got plenty of power to the gap, but it probably wouldn’t jive with how the team is currently constructed.

Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.

by LeSaboteur on Sep 27, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he was awful today....

didn’t look confident at the plate, looked like April-May Rajai. I think he may be tiring, he hasn’t looked good the last four or five days.

I’d like to keep him as the 4th or 5th outfielder in 2010 unless the A’s can get a good return.

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Sep 27, 2009 3:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Saunders is tough on the A's, though...

Davis’ll bounce back.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if he fits with the Brewers

Can we get Hardy for him?

by jahs34 on Sep 27, 2009 3:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Davis alone doesn't get Hardy

Then I hang up the phone at this point.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 27, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How rude!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe that's why

my career as a telemarketer never took off.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 27, 2009 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahh, Full House

Gas to Chicago- $23.87 A's/White Sox Tix- $28 Watching the A's whipping the Sox in July 05'- Priceless

by WiscoFan on Sep 27, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then you'll be hanging up

I like Rajai but he won’t net a JJ Hardy caliber player, even as poor as JJ hit this year. As an A’s fan I wouldn’t be as excited to get JJ either, hes a decent player but his price will be rising rapidly and his range at short isn’t that great, he seems to project as a 3B type down the line and I’m not sure his bat is valuable as a 3B. Brewers might be interested in a guy like Davis if they let Cam walk, which they might, but they can also move Hart to CF and find a corner OF with ease or move Gamel to RF, potentially.

Gas to Chicago- $23.87 A's/White Sox Tix- $28 Watching the A's whipping the Sox in July 05'- Priceless

by WiscoFan on Sep 27, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The word great is kind of a land mine

but Hardy has really good range.

Hart can fill in for a game in CF, but he’s not going to do well there. They can play Gerut or Bourgeios if they want. They’ve got a couple prospects in the mid minors who are probably the expected heirs in CF, but they won’t be ready next year.

by JetSam on Sep 28, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crazy Idea!

Let’s actually keep a good player!

by fansince1980 on Sep 27, 2009 5:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He better be.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rajai

In a long and bitterly disappointing season Rajai has actually made the last three months fun. To trade Rajai would tear a little more of my heart out like we did when we
traded Hudson and Swisher. Say it isn’t so!

by Graybeard on Sep 27, 2009 5:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Rajai is going anywhere

Billy loves him, he’s affordable, and even if someone wants him he won’t fetch a king’s ransom in trade — that’s a great combination for staying in Oakland.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curious

How do you know Beane loves him? Just asking.

chronic

by Since1972 on Sep 28, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair question, and I hope you'll understand

if I say I can’t really answer. (Which kind of answers it.)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen/read Billy say a couple of times........

“Isn’t Rajai exciting” and “Wait till you see Henry Rodriguez”
He was trumpeting Rajai even in pre-season when he wasn’t what he is now numbers-wise .
I’m sure someone will find a link of that.

Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-

by Daniel777 on Sep 28, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not list the Cubs?

Lou Pinella has been grousing all season about how they needed a “real” leadoff guy. What if ownership decides that going out and buying Chone Figgins is too expensive for them? I could definitely see some sort of deal involving Rajai + low prospect for either Fukudome or Bradley + cash. The cubs org is just chomping at the bit to dump either guy. Milton’s personal issues aside, I think either guy would work really really well in our current system. Neither guy is a huge power threat (well, this year for Bradley), but they both have great OBP, decent OF defense, and can run well. Doesn’t that sound like us right now?

by cityplANner on Sep 27, 2009 5:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

bradley

love the idea. problem is he is happiest when he takes his days off due to injury. he was also more “durable” at DH. Being day to day or DH means hariston/Sweeney/ Cust in the OF.

by Future Ed on Sep 27, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone know what went wrong with Bradley's swing this year?

His SLG fell off a cliff. Was he hurt? Trying to hit too many homers? Using the wrong bat?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or did he have a rare case of gout

in which the “g” becomes a “p”?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he definitely did

whether that is why he hasn’t hit all that well, I don’t know. He’s been hitting half the season in Wrigley too.

by JetSam on Sep 28, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't Bradley have a pretty toxic exit with the A's, though?

that’s why I didn’t mention him specifically.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 27, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fukudome?

Doubtful. He’s certainly improved upon last season by leaps and bounds, but to trade away an OF who plays ++defense makes it a very short conversation. I suspect he’ll improve even more on those numbers next season.

Bradley? Sure. You can have him. I’ll have to find the numbers again, but he’s actually only played two less games than last season, and the drop in offensive production has been huge.

Rajai for mid-level prospect and cash, and that’s a deal I would make. Maybe just a lot of cash.

Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.

by LeSaboteur on Sep 27, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That trade really doesn't help the Rays though.

Upton is a better player than Davis despite his down year. He rushed back from a shoulder injury but he’s still younger, cheaper, and more talented than Davis with a more sturdy track record and a higher upside.

Suzuki is a very fine player and Navarro is poor, but Gregg Zaun will be around and the Rays have the ability to add another catcher by moving a starting pitcher or prospect rather than dealing Upton.

Plus as a I mentioned above, if they were to move Upton (or Crawford) I’m not sure they’d want another MLB ready outfielder to go along with Joyce/Jennings/whomever is left. Heck, even Zobrist could be moved to the outfield full time and Brignac placed at second (or Rodriguez moved to 2B/OF). The team is incredibly deep with positional players everywhere but first and catcher.

I know B.J.‘s perception isn’t swell nationally, but everyone I’ve talked to in the Rays loves the kid. Heck, anyone I’ve talked to likes him. If you’ve heard him talk he’s about the most soft-spoken player around. Over the last two years he’s been one of the top three defensive center fielders in baseball and I don’t think anyone believes his bat is below league average at a true talent level.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 27, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This makes sense

If I was Rays GM, I think my entire offseason would boil down to trading MLB-ready depth guys (Joyce, Perez, Aybar, Rodriguez, etc etc etc) for bullpen pitchers. The A’s could definitely get in on some of that action, since they have bullpen depth and to spare.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would you deal Brignac for Wuertz?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't.

Volatile or not, a RP coming off a season the caliber of Weurtz’ is worth more than a SS prospect who’s kinda had his numbers take a huge drop since getting to AAA.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd go over his medical records with a fine-toothed comb to make sure that he's not showing any wear from this season

but assuming that he passes with flying colors, yes, I would make that move as the Tampa GM. Brignac is caught between Bartlett and Beckham (lot of "B"s, heh) and Zobrist, while sub-mediocre defensively, can at least half-ass shortstop if Bartlett goes down with a long-term injury.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

what about from an Oak perspective?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd do it

Ultimately, I have great confidence in the A’s farm system to produce good relievers, and I’d still be heading into 2010 with 2 potentially elite relievers (Bailey and Devine), one rather good one (Ziegler) and a strong left side (Kilby, Breslow and/or Blevins). Should be able to scrounge up one more decent arm between the prospects and the waiver wire.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm kind of in love with Fernando Perez,

so I’m very in favor of getting in on that action.

by Elston Gunn on Sep 27, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No thanks

Last thing the A’s need is another average outfield prospect.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 27, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, i know

i’m just in love with him

by Elston Gunn on Sep 27, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How is he not just Charles Thomas, part 2?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have you read Charles Thomas's poetry?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, David James Fisher...

WordUpThome: "TRENIDAD HUBBARD WENT TO HIS CUPBOARD TO FEED HIS POOR DOGS AND PETS...WHEN HE GOT THERE, THE CUPBOARD WAS BARE, AND THEY TRADED HIS DOG TO THE METS"

by Player To Be Named Later on Sep 28, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

rec'd

(but not wrecked).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

um don't you know that trading people is more fun

I mean whats best is when you are doing Punnett squares to predict the genetic outcomes of the embryos you are trading.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those things are so much fun. (Punnett squares I mean)

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They are the most fun

when they are full of strawberries.

by LibrariAN on Sep 27, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate to break this to you

But I see little chance Kurt Suzuki will be the A’s catcher for years to come.

I’ll be very surprised if he stays with the team beyond what would be his free agent years, honestly.

Look at how many games he plays every season. Look at how his numbers suffer as the season drags on.

He’s being run into the ground. I’ll be shocked if he remains with Oakland beyond about 28 or 29 years old (assuming he doesn’t switch positions, that is)

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus the A's have been stockpiling catchers in the minors

even going so far as to pay way overslot for Stassi.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well it depends what you mean by years

if “years to come” is the next three, it wouldn’t be a terrible bet.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, but I was speaking in context of "Career"

All of the “omfg guys NEVER get signed!” people here seem to want guys to stay with Oakland their whole career, event hough it’s not a good idea.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya know...

I’ve often though that Suzuki has been wearing down too, but it appears as if more of his change has really just been BABIP. His ISO has actually been steadily increasing as the season has wore on, as he’s kept his SLG flat. The drop is really just AVG



I still think resting him more would be better, but might not be as clear cut as I’ve thought…

by chri5 on Sep 27, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

What I'd like to see is LD%

My sneaking suspicion is that by getting worn out, he’s not catching up to balls he normally puts good wood on, which would seem to lead to a lower BABIP. The SLG could stay the same even though he’s not making contact as much as he does when he’s rested.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd also be interested in seeing his 2008-09 hitting stats

“the day after a day off.” It seems really good, but that might just be my perception.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 27, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Someone did a look at catcher numbers by consecutive days catching, and there was a reduction after like 3-4 days.

I think it was at baseballprospectus, but I can’t really recall…

by chri5 on Sep 27, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmmmmm

You may be right

by chri5 on Sep 27, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That looks like worn out to me.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 27, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roughly the same amount of grounders, more flyballs, less line drives.

Perhaps he’s tired and not squaring the ball up as well as he was 2 months ago?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 27, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OMG, he tachycardic!!!

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 28, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who do you think doesn't care?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Sep 27, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This

Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-

by Daniel777 on Sep 27, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we don't get something that blows our minds

Rajai stays an A.

Thank you and good night.

Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-

by Daniel777 on Sep 27, 2009 6:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Suzuki? No

Davis – maybe….but it’d better be for an OF with some serious POP!

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber

by BERRYJO on Sep 27, 2009 6:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I say

Davis to the Celtics straight up for Rajean Rondo, so it can be an all-Raj trade.

Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?

by emperor nobody on Sep 27, 2009 6:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I say Davis and Eveland for Rerun and Rog

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 27, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

now that

is What’s Happenin’

Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?

by emperor nobody on Sep 28, 2009 4:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the money's in the wall!

tear the house down!

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's always money in the banana stand.

Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, I'm finally Mr. Manager.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 28, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Will they throw in unsigned draft pick Lester Hudson?

I hear he is a combination of Jon Lester and Tim AND Orlando Hudson.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 27, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Trading Suzuki

(Which I realize isn’t the main point of this post) is just counter-productive in my eyes. I’m sure we could get good players in return for him but I feel he’s just to valuable to the team to trade away now. It would be nice to have a couple established players in place when all the young guys start arriving. Having Kurt behind the plate, Ellis at second, and Cust at OF/DH would be nice instead of inserting 7-9 rookies in the lineup. Add in the fact that Kurt seems to have an excellent relationship with the pitching staff and I’d say he’s about the only untouchable position player we have right now.

I realize that this post wasn’t really well thought out but I just couldn’t really find a good way to turn my thoughts into actual words right now.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 27, 2009 8:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Charles Thomas

I’d like to see someone compare Raj’s career arc offensively to Mr Thomas.

if there’s another Hudson out there who somebody can’t keep, let’s go for it.

"It's better to live rich than die rich" -- The Fat Lady

by geogrman on Sep 27, 2009 9:42 PM PDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Billy Beane loves Rajai

The key for me is the first half of the season. Sure everyone loves Rajai in the second half because he was freakin’ awesome. But in the first half he looked like crap and there were numerous times when it sure looked like the smart move was to DFA him. The fact that we didn’t tells me that BIlly thought he saw something in Rajai even when he was bad.

Rajai is only a “sell high” situation if you think he’s going to regress to bad-Rajai. I don’t think Billy is worried about Rajai turning into bad-Rajai again, because Billy still liked Rajai even when he was bad-Rajai.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 12:12 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If he's not worried about regression, then he's out to lunch

If he just happens to think that “bad-Rajai” (whatever that means… he’s the same player as he was three months ago) has nonzero value to a baseball franchise, well, that’s correct, so…

I mean, DFAing him in May would have been really dumb. The fact that Beane didn’t do something really dumb is evidence that he “saw something”?

I’m going to chalk this theory up to it being late on a Sunday night.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously,

why the hell would rocking horse people eat marshmallow pies?!

And why does Dion keep screaming over Coach Mariucci?

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 28, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

see kids, the answer is Acid...

the answer is always acid.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 28, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What turns litmus paper blue?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

tap water in LA!!

dingdingdingding!

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope

Nobody in the A’s organization takes any of this particular discussion seriously. The more I think about it, the more I think a trade of Rajai Davis would be a disaster for the team. It would be risky, it would send a bad message to the other players, i.e. do better than anticipated and we’ll dump you immediately, and it would most likely ensure that 2010 be another year that’s not taken seriously.

Right now, at this point, there are only three open spots in the roster: third base, which must be reserved for Chavez and/or Wallace, a back end of the rotation starter, which can be filled by any one of several free agents, and an all-purpose back-up infielder who is not named Bobby Crosby.

Bottom line: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 9:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Third base must be reserved for a guy who can't get on the field and a guy who can't play in the field?

“It” produced somewhere between 75 and 81 wins this season (and that’s with a fluke-lucky performance from Davis, to boot). It’s clearly “broke.”

do better than anticipated and we’ll dump you immediately

This is simply an incorrect understanding of what people are saying. It’s one thing if you do better than expected in terms of controllable performance. It’s another if your controllable performance is actually about what was expected but your surface numbers are better because you lucked into some bloop singles.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The A's had two teams this year

The first team was focused on Giambi, Holliday, Garciaparra and Cabrera. That team wound up fifteen games under .500. The second team focused on Davis, Barton, Sweeney and Suzuki. That team will wind up several games over .500. That second team also has featured, in the rotation, Edgar Gonzalez and Dana Eveland, neither of whom belongs in a major league uniform.

The comment about “lucking into some bloop singles” is accurate insofar as Cliff Pennington is concerned, but not Rajai Davis. His “bloop single” rate doesn’t seem outside the norm, at least from any of the games I’ve seen. I understand comments about high BaBIP, and those make sense - those numbers are outliers. But the bloop singles comment comes out of nowhere.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rajai has had a few bloops, as all hitters do,

but what has most boosted his BABIP/BA is that he’s using the whole field and also more often showing enough patience to get a good pitch to hit. Many of Rajai’s hits have been drives down each line, “shots up the middle,” and grounders poked through the right side hole. His BABIP will regress, no doubt, and he won’t hit .312 next season. But he has hit well, not just in good luck, in 2009.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My eyeball assessment of Rajai's hit chart

is that his use of the whole field is not any more pronounced than that of any other hitter. Granted, that’s a step up from last season when he tried to pull everything, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"it would send a bad message"

do better than anticipated and we’ll dump you immediately

richwol also seems to be assuming that Oakland players don’t want to be traded, which I don’t think is at all clear.

Who knows, maybe it would help motivate players to do better.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better than what?

Since Rajai turned his career around, all the position players are hitting out of their skulls.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

we're not a playoff team right now

“Sending a message” like that is sort of anti-motivational for rookies. It’s like “if you do really good, you can leave this hellhole and never look back.” Normally, you “send messages” to people who suck or otherwise don’t fit with the goals of your team for that year, i.e., Milton Bradley. You’re suppose to encourage people to do well by rewarding them with more playing time, money, etc.

It’s funny how so much is made about how the A’s like to develop a culture of winning in the minors, and then when we sniff at a winning record with guys who came up winning, the fans want to trade them away.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Welcome to the World of AN Winners & Losers

If you’re anointed a winner (i.e. Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Daric Barton, J.J. Hardy, Austin Kearns, Jack Cust), you’ll stay a winner long past your expiration date. If you’re anointed a loser (i.e. Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, Cliff Pennington, Jeff Gray), you’ll be a loser long past the time you’ve proved yourself. (These examples are of AN winners and losers…I’m not saying they have or haven’t proven themselves, nor that their expirations dates have come or gone).

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

richwol1, you "annointed Pennington a loser" before he'd played a single inning this year in Oakland!

Here’s you on the day of the OCab trade:

“The A’s didn’t get enough to compensate for more crappy games this year with Pennington swinging and missing on a regular basis, or two months of Bobby Crosby. I go to A’s games to be entertained, not to sit around looking at a crystal ball.”

“Let’s seehow Gio and Trevor and Brett and Dallas respond to two months of nobody getting on base.”

“Because you’re one of the guys who will ALWAYS trade the present for the future. There are a lot of fans like that. Because the future is unknown and therefore better than the present. As you say, Cabrera will likely get on base for the rest of the year at a .340 clip. That suits me fine. Pennington is no whiz as a fielder and can’t hit. I figure Crosby will play the last six weeks at shortstop, and won’t that be a thrill?”

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The search function... making people regret things they said in the past since 2008

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, at the time he WAS a loser

But I’ve shifted my opinion, as opposed to a lot of folks here.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And you really missed my point

Which is that when someone is “anointed” a loser by certain folks here on AN, that person will always be a loser, like Ryan Sweeney or Rajai Davis or Cliff Pennington. So Pennington will never be a hitter, Rajai Davis should be traded, Ryan Sweeney is a waste of roster space. I think at the time I made my comment, it looked like Pennington would never be able to field or hit. Apparently I was quite wrong.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I won’t speak for others, but my position is firmly against jumping to conclusions, either pro or con individual players.

Please turn this post green.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

As far as I can tell,

your list of “winners” is mostly “guys who did flukily bad in tiny sample sizes” and your list of “losers” is mostly “guys who did flukily good in tiny sample sizes.”

Actually, that’s not quite true, as your “winner” list also includes “guys who have previously been much better than they have been in their most recent tiny sample size.”

I know it feels really awesome to be able to judge players on their most recent two months of play, but it’s not a competent way to build a baseball team.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweeney

…was trashed unmercifully last year, and well into this year, as at best a fourth outfielder. I’m not even sure if the talk is fully dying down on that one.

The conclusion I’d make after two months of Pennington and Davis is that I’d pencil the former in, with some reservations, for next year, and the latter would appear to be for real, so I’d hold on to him. From what I’ve seen, Davis’ high BaBIP is more the result of a plethora of line drives that were well placed, rather than bloops, which means that even if he regresses to the mean, he’ll still be a damn fine baseball player. That’s why the trade high stuff bothers me…it’s like he turns his career around, and still people want him traded.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davis's line drive rate this year is good but certainly not exceptional

and is significantly less than it was last season. Yet you concede that earlier this year you thought he was “garbage.”

I’d really like to hear the explanation for this one. I’m not accusing you of lying, but I think your knowledge of his good statline has caused your mind to rewrite history.

In the old days, people used to refer to fluke hits as “a line drive in the boxscore.” Well, now that trick won’t work anymore… as long as people actually use the data and don’t just rely on a constantly changing kaleidoscope of mental images.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Umm...maybe he's been playing better.

Happens, you now.

Things change, people change, events change. The Rajai Davis of earlier this year wasn’t doing the little things. He was running badly between the bases, he wasn’t running well in the outfield.

I think it’s possible to say Rajai looked like garbage earlier this year, and now he looks good, without either having selective memory or lying.

Brett Anderson also looked shitty earlier in the year. Now he looks great. Am I lying or do I have selective memory?

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it possible...

….he’s got better control of where the line drives are going? Or is that absolutely impossible? I mean, some players seem instinctively to know where to place the ball. Or how to hit so the ball goes where the fielders aren’t…at least some of the time. He does seem to be hitting the ball with more authority this year, whether his line drive rate shows that or not.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically?

No. THT did a study on this very topic a few years ago.

You can sort of direct the ball to one side of the infield or the other if you really try hard. That’s about the extent to which batters can “place” batted balls. There is no way to reliably hit a target as small as the gap between two infielders.

To answer the plaint about Brett Anderson: first, he’s a 21-year-old rookie who’s a lot more likely than a 29-year-old third-year player to make rapid improvements in play; second, he’s much better at baseball than Rajai Davis; third, his velocity has documentably increased over the course of the season.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Open Question:

Has there been anything published regarding Skaalen’s work with R. Davis, or palpable adjustments that Rajai has made in the second half that are paying off for him offensively?

"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be." -- Peter Gibbons

by dtownmbrown on Sep 29, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

there are still legit concerns about Sweeney

at least offensively. He’s torn it up the last month (if anyone watched MLBN’s “September Monthly Leaders”, you saw both him and Rajai were in their all-AL outfield) average-wise, but his power is severely lacking. Like I mentioned in a prior thread, when you have Cust DHing, Patterson in LF, Rajai in CF and Sweeney in RF you have an outfield that has hit about 10 HR this year with I’m hoping Sweeney’s power develops over time, but given that he’s had pretty regular action now, it’s getting less and less likely.

You can say a lot about his defense, but right now, our club is needing power from the outfield and he’s not providing it

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

proof read fail

should say “…about 10 HR this year. I’m hoping….”

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

right now our club is needing goodness in the outfield and sweeney is providing it.

is there something i can do to convince the world that a run is a run is a run no matter what side of the ball it’s acquired?

by Elston Gunn on Sep 28, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweeney has hit 6 HRs and only stolen 1

Therefore, offense is six times as important as defense.

Q.E.D.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This statement makes me want to kill goats.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Chez Nico is tomorrow...

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lamb, think lamb.

Hey, Raburn! YOU ever dive into the shallow end of a pool?--noava22

by lynnzgal on Sep 28, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny, my psychiatrist said just the opposite.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the short and obvious answer is

that, like every else on the entire A’s roster, Rajai is available at the right price. It’s a bit of a stretch to say that the team would be fatally damaged by him being traded and so, should the right deal come along, it should be made.

by bobnothing on Sep 28, 2009 9:44 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

That's the best summary I've read so far

although “available for the right price” is only trivially true for Brett Anderson. It’s more-than-trivially true for Davis.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

At this point, Anderson is a legitimate ace. You don’t trade an ace for a prospect, regardless how how hyped or stunning the prospect is.

Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How about Strasburg AND Bryce Harper?

[obligatory caveat to satisfy the House UnAthletic Activities Committee]

Not that this would ever happen in reality, just curious where the line is.

[/obligatory caveat]

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is Bryce Harper really that good?

Ive been reading a lot about how his batspeed is down this year in showcases.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking specifically about one prospect.

Sure, if you get an offer that blows your mind, but I wouldn’t do it for a single prospect, even if that prospect was Strasburg.

I’d have doubts about Strasburg and Harper, because they’re so far away from the majors, but if the package was something insane like a three-way trade netting us Heyward and Wieters, sure.

I won't heal, given time.
I won't try to change your mind.
I won't feel better in the cold light of day.
But I wouldn't stop you if you wanted to stay.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Strasburg will pitch in the mlb next year hes not "far away"

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if he had signed earlier, there was talk of him pitching in sept this year

If he’s not up my May for them, I’ll be very surprised.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

Billy Beane has made it clear that anyone is available for the right price…so I should have added that as a minor caveat.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

However...

These posts, this entire topic, is predicated on the idea that the A’s would be shopping Rajai Davis around, or looking for a trade because they’re “selling high.” I think under those circumstances, I stand by what I said about the team being damaged. Because I can’t see any way that Rajai Davis would be traded for anything approaching his current value to the team. He’s had a half-season of success, and he’s 29 years old.

by richwol1 on Sep 28, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're reading a different post than I am...

So far as I can tell, the prevailing sentiment here seems to be very close to

Because I can’t see any way that Rajai Davis would be traded for anything approaching his current value to the team.

The difference in oppinion really comes down to what people think his current value to the team actually is. Essentially, you’d be willing to trade him, but you’d be ask for a higher price. I’ve not seen any post here that actively advocated “shopping” Rajai, in the sense that you should make a trade – any trade – just because you can (see, atttempts to rid themselves of one B Crosby).

Finally, nothing that is said here actually will have any material effect on what happens in the offseason (at least, regarding trades), so, yknow. Pinch of salt and all that.

by bobnothing on Sep 28, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great idea!

Let’s trade two of the more liked players on the A’s for a far worse catcher and the disgruntled brother of Justin Upton.

Also, people can stop with the ‘only played well for a 1/2 season’ garbage.

He’s only had a 1/2 season of consistent playing time and last time I checked, 29 is not old.

Stop recycling good players just for the sake of making trades.

by Walton711 on Sep 28, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I dont want to trade anyone

If there’s a player on the A’s who has bad “peripherals” but is playing extremely well, arent we deep enough to just let them go until their streak runs out? Why make another Hairston trade?

by PL78 on Sep 28, 2009 11:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You assume that "streaks" are a tangible thing

In fact, they have been proven to consist solely in the imaginations of people looking at performance after the fact.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love you, ig
Just because something is non-predictive doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

Thank you for saying that

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's also the Nomar corrolary:
Just because something is non-productive doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

please stop reminding me that he exists... I had almost forgot.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No this iglew post is only exists because it is predictive of more similar posts in the future.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, Orion the constellation really exists

in some way other than “there are a group of stars with certain astronomical coordinates.”

Yeah, no. It’s imagined by people. There is nothing tangible about a group of stars that make a funny shape, and there’s nothing tangible about a group of at-bats that make a funny shape either.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did you catch how Orion's shape changed

that year it went through a divorce and also played through nagging “red dwarf” pains? Luckily it has a long-term contract (several billion years, as I recall).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's not what he said

he said if you look back on a streak, you can’t deny that someone hit in x games in a row. That is incontrovertible.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, and if you look at the sky, the fact that there are stars at coordinates (x1, y1) and (x2, y2) and (x3, y3) that make up Orion's Belt is also incontrovertible

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As is the fact that if you lob a fastball

belt high to Orion Sweeney, he’ll still only double off the wall.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's different

the definition of a streak is that you hit in x games in a row. I could look up in the air and say that stars 1 – 10 make a blob and call it a constellation. Completely subjective.

I have a better one: just because something is quantifiable doesn’t mean it’s relevant to your goal

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that what PT is going for is:

even if a streak happens, there is no evidence that a player was actually “playing better” during the streak. It’s just normal fluctuations and human beings tend to place too much significance in fluctuations.

by colin on Sep 29, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those are two different questions

1) Do players go through periods during which they play significantly better or significantly worse than their mean level of performance?

2) When they do play significantly worse or better, what (if anything) happens to their raw numbers?

The results-oriented stats we’re all used to are second-level indicators of performance quality, so they’re imperfect indicators of exceptionally good performance (a player can go 0-4 with 3 line-outs and a HR caught over the fence — or 4/4 with 4 swinging bunts). Performance quality, that is, is only one of the factors that determines OBA, SLG, ERA, K rate, etc.

Pitchers mess up their motions, hitters mess up their swings, and they also suffer injuries that hurt their performance temporarily. The fact that most stats can’t measure those periods perfectly isn’t proof that those periods don’t exist.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 29, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

1. Of course they do. A .300 hitter is not going to get 3 hits and then make 7 outs, and then get 3 hits and then make 7 outs, etc. That’s the whole reason they call it an average. Sometimes a guy will get 3 hits, sometimes he’ll take an 0-fer.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 29, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not exactly the question
A .300 hitter is not going to get 3 hits and then make 7 outs, and then get 3 hits and then make 7 outs, etc. That’s the whole reason they call it an average. Sometimes a guy will get 3 hits, sometimes he’ll take an 0-fer.

You’re talking about variations in results — that can happen even if performance is identical, because of luck, playing environment, defense/hitters, etc.

My #1 above is about something different: was Cory Lidle actually throwing better pitches during his shut-out streak, or just facing terrible hitters or getting luck? What about Ziegler last year?

I think with pitchers we all agree that their performances actually vary, and not just the results. I think that’s also true of hitters.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 29, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, I don't disagree with the math or the analysis,

but I would insist that “place too much significance” is a subjective call. What makes something “significant”? For me, significance is more about what gives me joy in the observation of it, not whether it has predictive value for future performance.

I think any disagreement there may be on the whole streak question is just in the concept of what is “significant”. Some people seem to be using the word to reflect what information can be logical deduced from something, as in “significant digits”; others want to read it to mean how meaningful it is personally, as in “my significant other”.

I think streaks are fun, and if you tell me I’m placing too much significance in them, you are denying my personal aesthetics.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 29, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There have been instances when players notice mechanical problems with their swing or pitching motion

then change their mechanics, and have noticeably better results. I don’t think those instances are all illusory.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, one of my "hey it could be right" theories about streaks

is that players in fact play at less than 100% most of the time. A “hot streak” may in fact be the rare time a player is actually at full capacity, showing what he can do at full capacity, while many cold streaks correlate to nagging injuries guys are playing through.

No, I don’t think it’s that simple, but yes I imagine “playing at 100%” vs. “playing at 90%” has something to do with the better and worse “streaks” we may often incorrectly observe as either random or attributable to other factors.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Play at less than 100% of what?

100% of how they play during a streak? So you’re saying that players play better when they play better. Um, OK.

I may object to Paul’s Ebenezer Scrooge ontology wherein any intangible construct of the human mind does not exist, but I have no disagreement with him on the relevance of streaks.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's more like what Hairston has been doing the past month or so

Playing with an injured leg, then back, etc.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly. And likely Cust with his back --

which wasn’t talked about all that much, compared to Hairston’s quad, but coincided with his mid-season “cold streak” (which has been followed by a rather nice streak of late).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say imaginary things didn't EXIST

They do exist, in the sense that they impact human behavior. For instance, they caused this thread.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm talking about 100% health, iglew, if that wasn't clear

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

No, it wasn’t clear. Or at least not to me.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure what you mean by "tangible".

I didn’t say anything about it the first time because I figured you’d just say you’re being metaphoric and I shouldn’t be so literal. But there’s a reason we try to use words in their established meanings: it’s so we can actually understand each other.

Right now, I honestly don’t know what you’re getting at when you say streaks and constellations are not tangible. Of course they’re not. Neither is love, music, the number three, or your middle name. What does that have to do with whether they exist?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

All I mean

is that talking about streaks is like talking about artwork. The only meaning in it is what you choose to put into it

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!

Can you imagine if the number 3 actually existed?

-Cindi

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it did

someone would have to explain to Dana Eveland “3” is how many strikes he needs to throw to the batters

by Future Ed on Sep 28, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, that's the number "any"

WordUpThome: "TRENIDAD HUBBARD WENT TO HIS CUPBOARD TO FEED HIS POOR DOGS AND PETS...WHEN HE GOT THERE, THE CUPBOARD WAS BARE, AND THEY TRADED HIS DOG TO THE METS"

by Player To Be Named Later on Sep 28, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I have no quarrel with that statement,

but I think it applies to a whole lot of things that are worth talking about.

Tell me this: If a guy wins the lottery, did he get lucky or didn’t he?

I mean, it’s just a random selection and it just happened to pick him. It has no bearing on how likely he is to win another lottery. So if someone calls him lucky, we have to say, “no, no, no, luck doesn’t exist”? Of course it exists. That’s exactly what luck is.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't finish the post

Anyway, I think what I’m trying to get at is that it doesn’t make any more sense to look at a streak and say “hm, we should let this guy ‘ride it out’” than it does to look at Guernica and say “hm, war is bad.” You can’t prove a point using art.

The point of art, like the point of retrospective analysis of “hot streaks,” etc., is entertainment value (in the broad sense of the term), not analysis.

I suppose you could go for some sort of performative, consciousness-raising position, but to be honest, the last thing AN needs is more people’s consciousness to be raised about Rajai Davis.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"You can't prove a point using art."

Oh wow, we are in different worlds.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, this is slightly overstated

A piece of art might well be used to prove a point about the mental state of the artist (PL78) or indeed the art critic (me). Doesn’t really work for the outside world, though. The Mona Lisa doesn’t prove that the actual woman Mona Lisa had a weird smile.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But people in Picasso's time DID have both eyes

on the same side of their face, right? Don’t shatter my world here.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe we're talking different languages here

When I mean streak i mean it in the literal games-in-a-row sense, not like “oh yeah, Barton’s been swinging a hot bat.”

On the other hand, even if I said such a silly thing like the latter, just because it is silly does not mean Barton’s performance might be above his norm. In your example of the Mona Lisa, you’re right — it doesn’t prove anything about the woman at all. Not that she had or did not have a weird smile.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's getting a little too postmodern for me if you're arguing

that a streak is proof of its own nonexistence…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm...

“The point of art, like the point of retrospective analysis of "hot streaks," etc., is entertainment value (in the broad sense of the term), not analysis.”

Ummmm…..no.

The point of art is NOT entertainment value. The point of art is a lot of things, to a lot of different people. For Tolstoy, the point of art was to bring up a moral imperative. For Lenin, it was to bring up a political imperative. For Picasso, it was most likely, in the case, of Guernica, to illustrate anger at genocide and inform the public as well. Entertainment more often than not plays a role in art, but this kind of broad, off the cuff comment, is ridiculous.

Can a work of art “prove” anything? Well, music can prove a relationship of sound to issues involving the mind and body. Representational art of the 1600s can be used to “prove” what people wore, what they ate, during that time period in that place. If “art” includes political propaganda (which it should, even if it’s kitsch), then it’s all about proving things.

True postmodern art is, of course, only about itself. That part of the analogy is probably okay.

This has nothing to do with hitting streaks, one way or the other. The analogy is off.

by richwol1 on Sep 29, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can’t prove a point using art.

Tell that to Billy Beane and Michael Lewis.

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Sep 29, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can sometimes prove a point using Ken.

You certainly can’t prove anything using Bob.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 29, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you

For adding the clarification. Monkeyball’s jokes sometimes (often) whiz over my head, like so much fecal matter.

by el generico on Sep 29, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is such a modern vision of art

Science is great, but it really saddens me that the scientific mindset has turned the world into the Baconian vision of “If I can’t control it/predict it, it doesn’t have wide-ranging meaning.”

It’s just so false that the only meaning in Shakespeare is what I put into it.

On a wider scale, the scientific mindset has done the same thing to ethics, but that’s an entirely other conversation.

by Elston Gunn on Sep 28, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,

Than are dreamt of in [his] philosophy.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Neither is love

You’re doing it wrong.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Sep 28, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Touché

(literally!)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Touché, from Miké

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I gotta believe

that constellations are tangible, but no, I can’t touch them.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2009 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the point about constellations

is referencing the fact that nearly all constellations only look like a grouping of stars because of the exact location of the earth. If you view those stars in their three-dimensional locations, it turns out that they aren’t anywhere near each other (i.e. some stars of the constellation are much closer to us than others)

by colin on Sep 29, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

tangible is the wrong word to use. And they are indeed related spatially and hits are produced at different rates.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But are they palpable?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 29, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aren't we suppose to deal from a position of strength?

In this case, the bullpen is the obvious strength and CF very much not so. Rajai is great right now, but I want to see what happens after he cools off next year.

I’d be willing to trade Blevins and Wuertz and another for a star, young CF. Certainly not Mike Cameron though — might as well trade for Steve Finley while we’re at it.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Trading Too Much

The Pirates Trade too much.! 17 years of revolving doors has lead to 17 years of losing
baseball. Ironically they have a beautiful stadium. I’d like to keep a nucleolus of home grown players like the Dodgers did in the 60’s and 70’s and Atlanta to a lesser dergree
from 1990’s on to today. Let the players grow together and in a couple years we will
be in WS.

by Graybeard on Sep 28, 2009 1:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

How's that working out for the Twins?

Mediocre farm system, and a whole bunch of bridesmaid finishes in their division (which isn’t much of a division to begin with).

The Rays trade all the time. Their roster is like 2/3 players who were acquired in trades. And they are a much better-run franchise than the Twins right now. They actually have the talent to be competitive for the next several seasons even in the toughest division in baseball.

I’m unimpressed, to say the least, with the recent track record of this strategy.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Rays

TB is maybe the smartest run franchise in all of sports though. Its not that fair to use them as an example.

by PL78 on Sep 28, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really... haveing a top 10 draft pick for ten years should help you look smart.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Exactly

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Sep 28, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tell that to the Pirates

Or the Royals.

Orioles.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 28, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Pirates had incompetent management for years

ditto with the Royals and Orioles.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DFA, you can't have it both ways.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 28, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes I can

If you have that many top draft picks and you turn it into a solid core you aren’t that smart. If you have shitty management and botch all of your top picks for a decade and still suck then your management team is really bad. Look at the Orioles who after finally having a GM who can take Angelos to task have started to turn things around in a big way and the same goes with the pirates getting rid of Littlefield and starting to turn their franchise around immediately.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like you're minimizing Tampa's turn around,

which really happened over the last three or four years, not the last decade. And coming from where they came to being competitive in the AL East is a bigger accomplishment than just “doing what they were supposed to,” especially when we have so many examples of teams that didn’t turn it around, including the Rays themselves the first six years or so.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 28, 2009 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When they got a better management team

It didn’t take that long to turn them around, how they continue forward is going to be the mark of whether they are really that smart.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hey leopold...

DFA is jut so willing to dislike/go against anything I write that that he’s are willing to contradict himself.

i can think a billion better ways to waste time man, get a life.

by PL78 on Sep 29, 2009 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops

that “are” needs to be gonzo, other than that i wish these overly negative “realists” would GTFO.

by PL78 on Sep 29, 2009 2:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are both paranoid and wrong

If you inherit your money, invest it, and make good market decisions that make you wealthy you are probably smart. If you inherit a bunch of money and piss it away on blow then you are an idiot. On the other hand if you have to pull ourself up by your bootstraps and get rich then you are probably smarter than either.

Tampa Bay’s management team is good but I would take several over them, including the Marlins.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 29, 2009 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've been called worse, I suppose.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 29, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't call you anything.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 29, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you called me paranoid and wrong, no?

that, or you were talking to PL78 and the mouse he has in his pocket.

Or…is PL78 also know as Legion and he is many?

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 29, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking to PL78

s/he is both paranoid and wrong.

I don’t think you are paranoid, nor are you wrong.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 29, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OH!

that makes sense.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 29, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So quit being paranoid and wrong

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 29, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the lunatic is on the grass.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 29, 2009 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder who was the first person

to use that comment about the mouse in the pocket – I like it.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And are they going to be competitive for several seasons?

I don’t think so, but I could be wrong. Regardless, in the AL East you probably have to have a different strategy than other divisions.

by JetSam on Sep 28, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My favorite-run front offices, perhaps in this order:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Oakland A’s (Personally, I don’t blame for not “lucking” into a Chase Utley-level, 6-8 win player. Their inability to do that is the main thing that holds them back, and I feel it’s kind of lucky to find one of those. But the A’s are very good at unearthing valuable players off the scrap heap, which is arguably a front office’s hardest job).
4. Tampa Rays
5. N.E. Patriots (love the recent Raiders trade)

I don’t know enough about NFL football any more to name other teams whose front offices I admire in terms of their systematic approach.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Sep 28, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You lost all credibility at #1

Stealing franchises =/= well run.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 28, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he's referring to the ownership

I mean, I think the Marlins front office is pretty damn sharp, too. Which has nothing to do with the fact that Jeffrey Loria is a sociopathic, extortionist prick.

Billy Beane got his start under one of the worst ownership groups in recent MLB history.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Either way, I vehemently object to any positive list including that team.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 28, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Supersonics fan?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

Fan of a team that, like the Sonics has limited local support and a rich history in Oakland.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 29, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Sonics have a rich history in Oakland?

their colors were green and yellow, too. That’s amazing.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Sep 29, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ISWYDT

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 29, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

notsellingjeans

um, Barry Zito for Chase Utley+Ryan Howard trade in 2003 FOR THE LOSS.

by PL78 on Sep 29, 2009 2:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that, no GM in his right mind would have taken that trade at the time

Look at Utley and Howard’s performance through 2003. I mean… for Barry Zito? No.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

People shouldn't be trying to imitate "the smartest run franchise in all of sports"?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's working out just fine, actually.

What’s wrong with “a whole bunch of bridesmaid finishes”? It means you’re competitive every year. That doesn’t sound so bad to me.

Besides that, I don’t know how you can characterize the Twins as bridesmaidish. They’ve won their division four times this decade, which is more twice their fair share if the championships were divided equally, and more than any other team in the division.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Their division is especially terrible though.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As is their ballpark

Completely irrelevant, sure, but it needs to be said at every opportunity.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

which won't be true next year. I'm really curious how Target Field plays

They don’t do it as much as they used to, but “chop and run” used to be a big part of their game. In some ways, I wonder if the Metrodome is a bigger home field advantage for them than they planned. They’ll benefit from the extra money, sure, but on the field (literally), I think it’ll affect them heavily

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It sure was in the past

whether because they were cheating, or just taking advantage of their ridiculous playing environment. That 1987 team, for instance, was a bad baseball team (they were outscored 786-806 during the season), had a 29-52 road record (.358 winning %), and got home field in both the playoffs and the WS because of the rotation system used back then.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I might actually be able to not hate them next year when they move into a real ballpark

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Especially since 23 of their games will be snowed out

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It has a retractable roof, no?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think so

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 28, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No roof

although I suppose it won’t be any worse than Cleveland.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minnesota is way way north of Cleveland.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's going to be f-ing cold in April. We can be assured of that.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They played outdoors in Municipal Stadium for 20 years or so

I’m not interested enough to check all the boxscores of the Twins home games in April from 1961-1981 to see how many snow-outs there were or to calculate the average game-time temperature, but someone in their front office or with the AL or MLB or even Minneapolis gov’t has probably done that.

FWIW, the boxscore on baseball-reference.com of the 1st game in MN on April 21, 1961 says that the gametime weather was 63 degrees, overcast, no precipitation.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 28, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that must have been a day game

I was thinking more like at night. Brrr.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Sep 28, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like playing in Daily City in february

except with wet fog.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As opposed to dry fog?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

there is some fog that isn’t as wet its more cloud than mist.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is some fog that's more airborne moisture than airborne moisture.

Got it.

I won't heal, given time.
I won't try to change your mind.
I won't feel better in the cold light of day.
But I wouldn't stop you if you wanted to stay.

by danmerqury on Sep 28, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Living in San Francisco teaches you these things.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 29, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I live in SE Wisconsin. There has been a whole lot more snow over the past few years than for many before that. I don’t want to call it a streak, but the snow is tangible. I don’t think its unreasonable to say that snow for a few days in a row in April is all that unlikely.

Shoveling that aside, it’ll be interesting to see how some of their players hold up – notably Maurer and Morneau.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2009 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That happens on the East Coast, too

and probably in Chicago, as well. It’s not the end of the world. The biggest concern is probably going to be the post-season, since it stretches to the end of October these days.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 29, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe

April could be really rough. Indeed May can be mighty unpleasant. If they end up with a half dozen snow outs, it’ll make their schedule wonky.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

April is the cruelest month.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Sep 29, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sharks fan?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 29, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Farther from a large body of water, too

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Being competitive without winning every year is a really dumb strategy for a small market team

The reason for this is proven by the 2009 Twins themselves, which are pretty much a pile of horse manure without the player who they obtained by means of the one recent season in which they were NOT competitive.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, well, that's a subjective call,

and we both know that you and I differ on that.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Sep 28, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man....

I know he had a bad year, but that BJ Upton trade made me laugh out loud. Seriously, I don’t think even Sabean would pull the trigger on that. I know people think of Kurt Suzuki and his .310 OBP as Johnny Bench lite, but Kurt Suzuki + Rajai Davis wouldn’t get you half of Upton.

I don’t think Rajai is a great guy to shop. If you can get some value for him, great — pull the trigger. But if you actively shop him, you create an adverse selection problem. Right now, no one really knows if Davis’s season is legit or not. But if we shop him aggressively, other teams are going to assume that we know something about him that leads us to think it’s not. That’s why, with few exceptions, you rarely see this sell-high strategy.

by swatnick on Sep 28, 2009 5:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

I just read through the comments…scratch the “lite” from the Johnny Bench line. Upton’s been a 4-5 win player until his regression this year (and even this year, he’s only about a half win behind Suzuki), while Suzuki’s been a 2.5 win player. Considering Upton’s younger and has considerably higher upside, I’m not quite sure why anyone would prefer Suzuki.

by swatnick on Sep 28, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW, the attempts people have made to measure catcher defense have uniformly put Suzuki

well ahead of the average, in the 5-10 run range. So he’s probably closer to a 3 win player this season and was about 3.5 last year.

I agree that he seems to be worse than Upton overall. But it’s closer than it looks because Fangraphs doesn’t credit catcher defense.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That plus I view Davis as being superior to Navarro.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the internal replacement rate in CF is higher than the internal replacement rate at C

and I don’t want Navarro starting.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Sep 28, 2009 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, PT

Clearly, Rajai>Navarro (though Navarro is a good defensive C, and cannot possibly be AS BAD with the bat going forward as he was this year). Still, I think Upton is so much more valuable than Suzuki that it’s still a lopsided trade. Also, I thought that WAR took into account positional adjustments, and Upton is a very good CF besides.

by swatnick on Sep 29, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

trading Rajai?

Talk about pissing off a fan base even futher… and you want to throw in Suzuki, too? NO to both. And a big NO to anymore prospects. Let the ‘specs we have now develop into good ball players first before getting more guys that take 2/3 yrs to develop (cough—Barton).
Rajai has finally found his rhythm in an offense that he feels at home with. Sure he’s not going to maintain this pace, but I think he’s found his role on the team and he will be productive in 2010. Plus he’s the anchor of the outfield. Don’t be so quick to trade everyone. I’ve grown to like him god dammit, so AN keep yer hands off!

by sf drift king on Sep 29, 2009 12:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, we can't keep running out guys that take 2-3 years to develop.

Hey, how old is Rajai and how long has he played?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Sep 29, 2009 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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