GOG 2009 #50

by colin on Sep 25, 2009 10:32 AM PDT Comment 16 comments

It's the 50th GOG of the season! Thinking back to late April, where did we all think that we would be at this point? If I take a look here, I see that roughly 90% of us thought that these last series against the Angels would be a meaningful part of the division race.

Now, some might say that the A's have been playing like a playoff team over the last month or so. I would just like to point out that, for this series, one team is starting Jered Weaver, John Lackey, and Joe Saunders while the other team is starting Gio Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, and Edgar Gonzalez. I think that I can pick the playoff team out of that lineup. Putting aside some justifiable pessimism, I'll just focus on the A's offense, which has definitely been clicking lately, and the remarkable job that the bullpen has done. The race is still on to determine whether Oakland or LAAAAAAA will finish with more wins for the decade. So let's go A's!

GOG #50 :: Last Rats of the Season (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Los Angeles Angels -- September 25-27

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Rank the three Angels starters (Weaver, Lackey, and Saunders) by pitcher game score, best to worst [2 points for each correct position] Weaver (50), Saunders (48), Lackey (24)
In their most recent starts, Gio, Dana, and Edgar pitched only 3.2, 5, and 3.1 innings, respectively. How many total innings for the A's starting pitchers against the second best offense in baseball? [3 points] 14.2 IP
In 351 career plate appearances against Oakland, Vlad Guerrero has been held to a mere .884 OPS (compare to an American League career value of .930). Predict his AB/H/TB for the series [2 points each] 12 AB, 1 H, 1 TB
Jack Cust is currently tied with Scutaro for fourth in the AL with 90 bases on balls (Figgins is first, followed by Abreu and Bay). How many walks does Cust draw in this series? [3 points] only one BB for Spartacust
About a week ago, Mike Scioscia said that he was considering giving some save opportunities to Kevin Jepsen. This hasn't happened yet, and Fuentes continues to lead the AL in saves (currently tied with Joe Nathan). Jepsen has been the much better pitcher this season, despite having a nearly identical ERA to Fuentes. They have the same strikeout rate, but Jepsen walks fewer hitters, keeps the ball on the ground, and allows far fewer HR. By WAR, Jepsen has been a full win better than Fuentes this season. Of these two relievers, who has the lower ERA for the series? Who allows the fewest hits per inning? Who has the lowest walks allowed per inning? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Jepsen posted a 21.60 ERA, allowing 1.8 hits and 1.2 walks per IP (1.2 innings total) while Fuentes pitched 1 inning and allowed no runs, 1 hit, no walks... so Fuentes wins in all three categories
Of the five projections systems displayed on fangraphs (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel the monkey, Oliver, and ZiPS) expectations for Erick Aybar's OPS this season ranged from .660 to .701. The fact that he is currently OPSing .761 while playing good defense at shortstop is another reason why I hate the Angels. ZiPS is still not impressed, projecting him to put up a .655 OPS for the rest of this season. Guess whether Aybar has an OPS of above or below .700 for the series [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Aybar OPSed .946 for the series, which is decidedly above .700
Win Probability Added values for relief pitchers can fly all over the place, thanks to high leverage situations near the end of close games. Which Oakland reliever has the best WPA for this series? [3 points] Wuertz has the most WPA, with +.113
Oakland hitters have received only 16 intentional walks, fewer than any other team in baseball. Do the Angels choose to put any Athletic on first for free? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
How many games in the series are decided by 3 runs or fewer? [3 points] 2 (games 1 and 3)

Jered Weaver kicks things off at 7:05 sharp. Go Oakland!

Results

After grading the first few questions, I thought that Angry Sean had a shot at a perfect score. It didn't work out, but he still did well. So did a couple other people.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.42857 points
standard deviation = 4.21927 points
mode = 3, 5, or 12 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The winners for GOG 50 are swatnick and Angry Sean! Those two plus JLeverenz were pretty much head and shoulders above everyone else on this one. Also, I would be remiss not to note that JLeverenz crossed the 200 point mark and Rated-R Superstar passed 300 points!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
swatnick	1	12	29	8	245	1	0.264
Angry Sean		12	45	9	244	23	0.167
JLeverenz	3	11	31	15	208	8	0.209
Rated-R Superstar	4	8	44	3	305	7	0.218
micdog2001	5	7	41	5	276	9	0.208
muffinpryde	6	6	42	10	238	21	0.174
colin	7	5	48	6	274	18	0.177
stranahanahan		5	14	33	74	N/E	0.173
streetfan	9	4	45	14	209	27	0.142
nevermoor	10	3	45	1	357	2	0.244
easyraider		3	19	20	129	10	0.204
zaniac75	12	1	48	2	348	5	0.225
adragon	13	0	32	17	167	25	0.161
doctorK	14	-1	50	7	263	24	0.163
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

1 recs | Comment 16 comments

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Comments

On again off again is on again

1. 2-1 SlengA, (I was going to put 2-1 A’s until I saw our starting pitchers…ugh!)
2. Lackey, Weaver, Saunders
3. 12.2
4. 14/4/8
5. 3, (to his 6 K’s)
6. Jepson across the board
7. under .700
8. Bailey
9. no
10. 2 games

PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves

by adragon on Sep 25, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Huge props for taking this GoG thing the whole way

   1. 2-1 Bad Guys
   2. Lackey, Saunders, Weaver
   3. 15
   4. 12/4/6
   5. 2
   6. All Jepson
   7. Above
   8. Bailey
   9. No
  10. All 3

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 25, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

well I owe you for a couple of them

and someone else is probably going to have to take over if we’re going to have GOG 2010

by colin on Sep 25, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

I didn’t do any of the hard stuff. I just made wieters jokes.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Sep 25, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Colin, you are a true gentleman and a scholar for doin this the whole year, and I wouldn't mind putting my name in the mix to keep it up for next year...

1. A’s 3-0
2. Lackey, Weaver, Saunders
3. 16
4. 12/3/5
5. 3
6. All Jepsen
7. Below
8. Wuertz
9. No
10. 2

"Did you know you can comment on Athletics Nation from your phone or PDA? SB Nation has launched mobile commenting. Check it out next time you’re at the game or bar and have something to say."

by stranahanahan on Sep 25, 2009 1:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

beat the sleGOGnA

1. 2-1 bad guys
2. Lackey, Saunders, Weaver
3. 14 innings
4. 14 AB/4 H/7 TB
5. 3
6. Jepsen across the board
7. below
8. Bailey
9. no
10. All of them

"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden

by doctorK on Sep 25, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

1. 2-1 Angels
2.Weaver,Lackey,Saunders
3.17
4.12/3/7
5.2
6.They Tie in all 3
7.Below
8.Bailey
9.No
10.1

"Macha hates you"- Tacoma fans heckling Kielty

by zaniac75 on Sep 25, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

2-1 A’s
Weaver, Saunders, Lackey
14.2
13/4/7
Two
ERA: Tied; Fewest Hits: Jepsen; Fewest Walks: Jepsen
Below
Baily
No
Two

by Angry Sean on Sep 25, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I will be there tonight - 1st row by right foul pole

1) 2-1 Angels
2) Lackey – Saunders – Weaver
3) 14
4) 13/4/6
5) 2
6) lower ERA – tie, fewest hits – Fuentes, lowest walks – Jepsen
7) above
8) Bailey
9) No
10) One

by easyraider on Sep 25, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

pitching matchups are just depressing

and with Oakland’s current six man rotation, we might see the same three going up against LAAAA for the final series of the year

2-1 Oakland (insanely optimistic)
Lackey (best), Saunders, Weaver (worst)
since I’m being insanely optimistic, how about 16 innings from the starters
Vlad :: 9 AB, 2 H, 5 TB
Cust draws 3 BB
Jepsen for all
Aybar’s OPS is below .700 for the series
Ziegler, with a clutch double play ball
nope
two close games

by colin on Sep 25, 2009 3:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

GOG 50

1. 2-1 LAAAAAAAA
2. Lackey Saunders Weaver
3. 13
4. 13/3/6
5. 3
6. tie/jepsen/fuentes
7. above
8. Kilby
9. no
10. 2

They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!

by muffinpryde on Sep 25, 2009 3:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Colin, thanks for doing to the GOG - it was a lot of fun!

   1. 2-1 A’s
   2. Lackey, Saunders, Weaver
   3. 16 2/3 innings
   4. 12/4/7
   5. 4 BBs
   6. Jepsen
   7. Above (there’s something funny about discussing ROS predictions this late into September)
   8. Bailey
   9. No
  10. 2 games

There is no gravity - the earth just sucks.

by JLeverenz on Sep 25, 2009 4:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I have a bad feeling about this series

1. Angels 3-0
2. Lackey, Weaver, Saunders
3. 14 2/3 IP
4. 12 AB/ 3 H/ 7 TB
5. 3 BB
6. Jepsen. Jepsen, Jepsen
7. Above
8. Jeff Gray
9. No
10. 2

GOGing has been fun, when I remember to do it. Between The GOG and my fantasy team it was a busy season. (my fantasy league ended last week and I won 1st place). Hey look, it’s LL.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Sep 25, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Go A's

   1. 2-1 A’s
   2. Lackey, Saunders, Weaver
   3. 15
   4. 12/4/7
   5. 2
   6. Tie for ERA; Jepsen; Tie for BB/9
   7. Above
   8. Wuertz
   9. No
  10. 2

by swatnick on Sep 25, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

2-1, Athletics
Lackey, Weaver and Saunders
17 IP
12 AB, 3 H, 5 TB
3 BB
Fuentes, Fuentes and Fuentes
Below
Bailey
No
3 G

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Sep 25, 2009 5:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's go A's

Three game series @ Los Angeles Angels — September 25-27

   1. Series outcome A’s 2, Angels 1
   2. Rank the three Angels starters by pitcher game score, best to worst Lackey, Saunders, Weaver
   3. How many total innings for the A’s starting pitchers against the second best offense in baseball? 14
   4. Vlad Guerrero has been held to a mere .884 OPS (compare to an American League career value of .930). Predict his AB/H/TB for the series 9, 4, 4
   5. How many walks does Cust draw in this series? 4
   6. Jepsen has been the much better pitcher this season, despite having a nearly identical ERA to Fuentes. Of these two relievers, who has the lower ERA for the series? Who allows the fewest hits per inning? Who has the lowest walks allowed per inning? Jepsen ERA. Fuentes hits. Jepsen walks
   7. Guess whether Aybar has an OPS of above or below .700 for the series Below
   8. Which Oakland reliever has the best WPA for this series? Ziggy
   9. Do the Angels choose to put any Athletic on first for free? No
  10. How many games in the series are decided by 3 runs or fewer? 1