What Does This Hot September Mean?
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 8:00 AM PDT
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PrintRob Neyer quotes Ken Rosenthal in his piece yesterday:
The A's are not just a September flash. They're 34-30 since the All- Star break, and entered Monday's play ranked fourth in the AL in runs per game during that time.
The increased offense is a surprise; left fielder Matt Holliday is gone, and Adam Kennedy's .767 OPS is the highest among the remaining A's with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.
While the team lacks above-average offensive players, its young pitching remains the envy of most clubs. The emergence of rookie shortstop Cliff Pennington, a gifted defender who is hitting better than expected, should end any talk about the A's bringing back Orlando Cabrera as a free agent.
From Neyer:
I picked the Athletics to win the West this season. They're going to finish last. Nevertheless, their recent solid play does make me feel a bit better about my prediction ... Maybe I was just a few months off!
I'm afraid I'm not yet to the point of long-term optimism, though. The A's are last in the American League in slugging percentage, and I don't see how they do much better next season. At 33, Kennedy is enjoying his best season since 2002 (and isn't signed for 2010 anyway). Rajai Davis is hitting better than he's ever hit before. Jack Cust might bounce back some next season, but then again he might not (he's 30). Pennington seems to have finally arrived, but he probably can't maintain these numbers next year.
As well all know, Rajai Davis, out of nowhere, is now batting .318 on the season in 335 at-bats. Suzuki is having another solid season, Kennedy has been a great pickup for the A's, and Sweeney is batting .289. But Neyer is right; the A's are missing the power numbers.
We've talked a lot about the future five starters for the A's (feel free to list your preferred rotation in the thread), but what are we going to do about the offense? If they A's won't play Travis Buck in a meaningless game even with an injury to Hairston, is he even going to be a factor next year? Can Cust rebound from a fairly awful season to be a productive hitter next season? Realistically, how many hitters will the A's have to pick up next season to compete? And who are these hitters?
Are these A's for real in September? Is this a positive sign for next year, or are these truly pressureless and meaningless at-bats?
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So Neyer can't muster "long term optimism"?
His point seems to be that players who are performing better than expected will regress next year and players who aren’t performing well will continue to perform poorly. Plus, there’s no immediate hope in the minors. Hard to believe he picked the A’s in the first place. I guess he pinned his hopes on an aging Giambi and Holliday’s crossover to the AL and a rookie staff. THAT he had confidence in.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
I was wondering that too...
…what about the early roster let us believe that this was a competitive team? Probably because Holliday is a bonified star, and Giambi used to be? It seemed like we filled that power gap that we’ve been missing. Without them, it’s pretty dismal. At least the Giants have Sandoval and Molina.
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
The Giants comment was a reply to the next comment
FAIL
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Sandoval was a big surprise, the '09 A's don't have any breakout on that level. Maybe if Rajai had played this way all season.
And Molina’s not good, he’s just about average this season. He doesn’t greatly benefit the Giants offense overall. Sandoval is the cheese standing alone there.
I thought the A’s would have meaningful September games this season, but Holliday underperformed a little bit while here, Giambi bottomed out, and the team gave hundreds of plate appearances to Crosby, Cabrera (with poor defense), and Hairston. And we were all expecting more from Cust too.
I also thought the A's had a shot this year
it was based on thinking that Holliday and OCab would both be a bit better than they turned out, that Giambi would be way better, and that Duchscherer would contribute at least a little bit.
Even more than that, I my hopes were based on the prediction that the AL West would be a weak division. Instead, the Angels have already made it to 90 wins and the A’s are the only team below .500.
In fact, the AL West is 43 games over .500. That's pretty good ball.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
Seattle has really good defense.
If you don’t watch the team much, you think “their hitting’s not that great, and their pitching’s not that great”, so you wonder where the wins come from. But that defense prevents a lot of runs, leaving them a slightly better than .500 team.
I’d say they’re maybe a little lucky, but not crazy lucky.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Yeah, great point
The West wasn’t supposed to be this good
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
but I'm more and more convinced
that I was just wrong. Seattle isn’t that good, but they definitely have some strong points. Texas and LA are good. I think that it was a bad prediction (but I wasn’t alone in making it).
It's clear that the predictions about the Angels, in particular, were wrong
The question then becomes why— what failed? What aspects of their players’ ability to break out did we miss?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Trust me
As a Giants fan, we wished the Giants didn’t give up on Rajai and give Aaron Rowand so much money.
I still believe in Ryan Garko...........
You can have him back for the low, low price of Tim Lincecum.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
The A's looked a lot better with Duke and Devine, for one.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Compete is a little vague.
I think they’re capable of meaningful September games, but it’s hard for me to see 90 wins from the current roster. The slugging, or even batting, on its own isn’t the only issue though – the Giants have competed this season with a horrific offense.
85 would be quite a stretch for next year too.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I also wouldn’t call Cust’s season awful. Disappointing, sure, but he’s still been a modest contributor on a poor offensive club.
Awful is the adjective I’d use to describe the Hairston acquisition. Awful waffle.
In my opinion, the A’s are too far (-40 wRAA) from a league average offense to patch a couple of holes via free agency and win 90 games. I do wholly support the idea of a veteran bench bat though, someone like Iwamura, as DFA suggested, would be great.
Just curious
Why don’t you like the Hairston trade?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Sep 23, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Cause Hairson sucks
:D
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
mikev basically sums it up.
It’s not that Gallagher was very good or greatly needed from an organizational standpoint, it’s the fact that Hairston should not be a desirable player for the A’s. He’s a good role player who’s in their starting lineup. He can’t hit well enough to play a corner and he doesn’t field well enough anywhere else.
The A’s can expect ~.760 OPS from left field with Hairston… not acceptable.
he was sort of having a breakout power season,
in San Diego to boot,
before injuries decreased his production.
I’m excited to see what he can do when healthy next year.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 23, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly how I feel
His legs were basically taken from him the minute he arrived in Oakland (surprise surprise!) and I feel that this just killed him not only in the field but also at the plate. I didn’t exactly like giving up Gallagher but I wouldn’t call the trade horrible or even bad at this point.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Sep 23, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
The fundamental problem
The fundamental problem with this statement is that Hairston has always had difficulties staying healthy. His injuries are nothing new and therefore I have a hard time expecting an OPS of .850 from a healthy-legged Hairston when I can’t justify expecting to see a healthy-legged Hairston at all.
by nobodyinparticular on Sep 23, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions
His numbers were nice,
but he has basically done nothing against RHP in his career. We gave up a promising pitcher for the bad fourth of a platoon.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I think Hairston was supposed to be our CF heading into next season
The trade happened before Rajai caught fire
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
How "solid" is Kurt Suzuki's season, actually?
His OPS+ is now the lowest it’s been in his 3 years in the big leagues, he’s hitting .239 with a .272(!) OBP since the All Star Break,.
Yes, I know his offense is still good as far as catchers go, but he’s very clearly being run into the ground. I don’t understand it.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I agree with this fully. I know Fosse was defending his playing time last night, but there is no way a catcher should play as much as Suzuki, especially when there is a more than capable backup. I’d want to see Suzuki play no more than three games in a row next season before having a day off.
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:15 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s 120 starts, about normal for a catcher, and doesn’t factor in offdays. And it still makes him available for pinch hitting.
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:27 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah but that 120 days of starting
is also a result of the days off a catcher gets on day game after night games, or after extra inning games, etc…
Making it a point of resting him every 4th day I think would be detrimental to the pitching staff.
More on the idea of just giving him a day off in those situations listed above is what I would be for.
One of the starters should adopt Powell as his personal catcher.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 23, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
The first two consectutive "good Gio" starts were with Powell catching.
I thought they might stick with this. They didn’t.
Bailey for ROY!
Hi.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Yeah
this idea worked horribly for the Loiaza/Melhuse attempted combo a few years back. I’ve never thought this type of arrangement made much sense. Unless you are Jason Veritek and refuse to learn how to catch Tim Wakefield.
I'll have a sandwich and a draft(sic). - Bill King (RIP)
The thing which I do find encouraging about Suzuki's season
is that his power seems to be developing. It doesn’t show in his OPS because of the corresponding drop in OBP, but if his power surge is real, all he has to do is return to his previous walk rates and get rested more and his offense could reach a new level.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Sep 23, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess.
He’s slugging .413, and he slugged .408 as a rookie, and his IsoP is lower this year than it was his rookie season.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Why y'all hatin on Suzuki?
What is wrong with everybody? He is one of the few bright spots this year – his offensive numbers have improved; he is credited by many in the organization for the development of the rookie pitching staff for his game calling and he a good defensive cather too. I’d say he’s within the top 5 Catchers in the AL (MLB?). So he doesn’t draw enough walks – jeez what’s a guy gotta do around hear for credit. In an ideal situation he’d be resting more… but this is not an ideal situation and he is the best RBI guy on the team. How can Geren legimiatly rest him more than he has.
I wasn't hatin', yo.
Peep dis shit – Zooks was flat out OFF DA CHAIN for like da first month n shit, broheim. Shit about it, tho, big Bobby up in that Managers office in da big house, he just kept on makin ol Zooks run on out there day after day. Shit gets TIRING, yo.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Word.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Sep 23, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
If you are auditioning for a part in the Wire
shit went off air back in the day!
I'll have a sandwich and a draft(sic). - Bill King (RIP)
Excuse me, stewardess...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
His offensive numbers haven't improved
They’ve gotten worse. Minimally worse (wOBAs of .322, .320, .316) but certainly not noticeably better.
If he stagnates where he is, he’s a good player but not a great one. Honestly he just needs to rediscover a little plate discipline and he should be fine.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I guess I meant more traditional offensive numbers...
in nearly the same amount of ABs as last year the guy has doubled his HR & RBI totals, had more runs and kept his AVG about the same. how is that minmally worse?
maybe it's not traditional
but his walk rate has gone from 10 to 8 to 5% over the last three seasons (yeah, 2007 was only half a season). This has caused a substantial drop in his OBP. Even though he’s slugging more than last year, it’s barely making up for the additional outs.
I agree his walks are way down
and that has dropped his OBP – but the guy has been hitting in the 3-4-5 spots the second half of the year – where he is expected to drive in runs – and that is just what he has done. His OPS is higher and his SO are less. and while his OBP is 40 pts down,his SLG is 40 pts up. How can what he has done this season be seen as negative to the offensive performance of this team?
I am not actually trying to argue – just understand…
1 pt of OBP is more valuable than 1 pt of SLG
It’s easy to get RBIs when you’re in an RBI spot in the lineup, you have more guys on base to knock in.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
I am with you brother
Having a bunch of on-base guys has not gotten us anywhere. We also need guys who hit the ball to knock the on-base guys in.
I’ll take a .270 catcher hitting 35 doubles, 15 HRs, and knocking in 80+ runs over most other catchers any time.
of course
We’re just saying that as a hitter he has been decent not great, but still good for a catcher.
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
These are two hilarious replies to contrast.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
Yeah, he seems exhausted, and there's no reason for it
What’s wrong with Powell?
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
he can hardly run without pulling something,
and his knees are bad too.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 23, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I was wondering about Powell
I know that he had lots of injury problems in the minors, but I hadn’t heard anything about him having trouble this season. It’s very likely that I just wasn’t paying attention though.
Can you clue me in on how bad he has really been feeling this year? Any quotes from him or the A’s trainers about it? If it’s the case that he has been playing as many games as he is physically capable of, then that’s a real drag.
He pulled his hamstring earlier this year
and since we only had 2 catchers on the 40 man they had to play Suzuki until he got better.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, the whole autoimmune hepatitis thing
(in case that hasn’t been mentioned yet). Still unclear to me what effect — if any — this has on Powell’s musculoskeltal health, but I would assume his body doesn’t replenish its glycogen stores as effectively as a healthy individual’s does, thus leading to (presumably) a tendency to become fatigued rather easily…
By all means, please feel free to shoot down my armchair speculation with actual knowledge of the subject, as I have very little. ; )
What are you talking about?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
hmm
Surprising you guys didn’t know
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Right.
Something to consider during the “Landon Powell should get more playing time” debates…
Surprising, indeed, that so many are unaware of this, at least to me. But I lurk, so whatever. I would’ve piped up sooner had I known that this was something most people had missed during spring training.
Wow, I missed that too
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure how I missed that as well.
For what it’s worth, the article says it shouldn’t impact his playing career…but still, it’s definitely something to remember.
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
This quote is perhaps why I didn't remember it
The condition shouldn’t affect his playing career — Powell, 26, showed up to spring camp in great shape and feels 100 percent.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
The hepatitis is definitely for real
Guessing how it affects his health and playing ability is the speculative part.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Wasn;t there also some concern about how the meds he takes affect his ability to recover from strenuous activity
which also limits the number of days he might play in a given week?
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds reasonable...
Glucocorticoids are the class of drug used to treat Powell’s disorder (yeah, I know, Wikipedia is hardly the PDR, but it gets the job done).
The meds actually contribute to muscle fatigue.
Plus, they can also cause weight gain, which isn’t the greatest thing for his knees.
Hey, Raburn! YOU ever dive into the shallow end of a pool?--noava22
The TV crew showed a clip of his Home Run trot while he was hurting
he barely was even jogging. Hardley scientific but interesting.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
nice...
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 23, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
i would like to see more of powell next year
if gio makes the big club as a starter, powell should catch his games. if gio doesn’t, powell should just get rotated into the C spot to get suzuki rest.
ideally we can keep cust as DH and have him play no more than 5 games all season in the OF. rotate powell in a bit as DH to get him more PAs.
powell has also played a little 1B, so rotate him in there, too.
i know it could be a strain on the 25-man, but i envision powell as our utility man for C-DH-1B and somebody not named crosby as the 3B-SS-2B utility man.
if reports of jack cust’s demise are not so greatly exaggerated, give the DH job to powell.
BK: This guy is on fire, he is really smokin'.
KenKo: Oh yeah, Bill? What's he smokin'?
Please, one inning of Cust
in the outfield is one inning too many. I know I stand alone but I will be very happy when the A’s are good enough to let Cust retire. I don’t need to watch a # 3 or # 4 hitter whose best option is to draw a walk since the only other thing he does better is to strike out. It shows how little A’s fans expect when they babble on about a guy who hits 25 HR’s a year and strikes out 190 times.
Strikeouts aren't as bad as you think they are.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
And walks are much better than you think they are.
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
I cant see the A's not competing
with the way they are playing now, plus with having a great upper farm system (AA champs and AAA runners-up). Barring injuries, I could see being in the WC hunt, and possibly the AL West hunt if the Angels falter.
Also, I’d like to sign Kennedy for another year or two.
Preffered Rotation:
Anderson
Cahill
Outman
Tomko (can we keep ’em? can we?)
G. Gonzalez
send Duke back to an already strong bullpen with Bailey staying at closer.
I forgot Braden, sorry
drop Gio and put Braden at 1 or 2. Also, Vinny is a possibility, but he could surely benefit from another year (or partial year) at AAA.
by chillicothe20 on Sep 23, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
No thanks on Kennedy.
Hopefully he nabs us a comp pick, but I highly doubt that he’s offered arbitration.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
The A's don't get a comp pick unless he's offered arb and refuses, no?
Clearly, I might well be mistaken about this, but that’s the way I understood it
Not if hes a type B which I don't think he even qualifies for.
If hes a type A which he certainly is not you have to offer arbitration.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought Type Bs still needed to be offered Arb
Wasn’t that part of the new CBA?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
they removed that provision in the new CBA
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
No, they didn't
This is wrong. They absolutely still have to be offered.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
HAHAHAHHA SUCK IT, DFA!!!!! I'M RIGHT AND YOU'RE *WRONG*
EAT THAT, STATHEAD!!!! BURN!
(Are you going to the game tonight?)
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
You know there are rare occasions when I am wrong
I went last night and wednesday nights are spent preparing for Thursday nights at Popscene.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Do I wanna know what Popscene is?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Is there something else I should want to know then?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I already knew that.
You told me once.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
sf drift king and bobnothing know
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure it involves a purple shirt.
With ruffles.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
But I don't want to be a popscene!
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
Popscenity is difficult to define,
but I know it when I see it.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Sep 23, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Popscene is a place
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Seinfeld is a show
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
well i don't expect you to be a popscene or a seinfeld whether you want to or not
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Youre right they removed the loss of pick for the acquiring team.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Duke's a free agent and I wouldn't count on him coming back.
Tomko’s going to be 37, has an uncertain nerve problem in his pitching arm, and his success is within a small sample. I would not expect him to pitch like Lohse or Blanton next season. Kennedy would be an even worse option… his career numbers suggest this season (or rather, his earlier power surge) was a big fluke.
Tomko could be an average 4/5 starter
he would come cheap given his age, yes?
by chillicothe20 on Sep 23, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions
If we are talking about 2010
there should be a poll about who we should trade Rajai to.
Lou’s hard on for a leadoff hitter inclines me to say the Cubbies.
For Milton? Lol that would be great.
I’m actually mad that bridge was burned. I have a feeling some team will get a great deal on a DH next season, and it won’t be oakland
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:24 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Raj for Milton
would be the ultimate sell high/buy low
I’d be sad about losing Rajai, but damn that’d be a steal.
…well, w/ The Cubs eating about $18MM of that contract, too
by cityplANner on Sep 23, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't bring Bradley back. Ever.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
Why not?
He provided above average defense and an above average bat
If the only price was Rajai and having to deal with his big mouth, sign me up.
by eastbayexpat on Sep 23, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
being around moody depressive loners sucks...
So, unless he’s gonna get on the happysauce and come to the park every day with a giant fucking smile on his face, and walk little old ladies across the street and be nice to reporters and tip the clubhouse attendants and not throw a tantrum when he’s not in the lineup,
I don’t want him anywhere near the A’s clubhouse.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 23, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
He was actually better in Oakland than
he was nearly anywhere else. He didn’t really flip out until the end.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
We watched him do an interview with Buan one day
He was a really cool guy….just cannot get out of his own way.
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
iglew, isn't that kind of like noting that
you didn’t find your keys until the end of your search? :-)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
2006 was a long time ago
when it comes to the A’s roster.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I’ve been thinking a lot about next season, and I think the A’s are in a tough spot. They have some obvious holes (3B and SLG), but they have possible answers in the high minors. Additionally, they need to decide if Rajai’s performance is somewhat sustainable.
They could make moves to try and compete next year (beltre or figgins, and some random 1B) but those would be costly, and block potentiallý better players already in AAA.
My plan would be to sit tight, get a backup MI not named Crosby (maybe just Petit) have Patterson as backup 2B/OF, and get a stopgap 3B. Hope you’re close in the first half, and unleash Carter/Wallace 2-3 months into the season.
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:22 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
rotation...
Anderson
Braden
Gio
Cahill
Eveland/Simmons/someone else cheap
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:29 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
"flash?"
i don’t know that’s the word exactly. more like “higher chakra” or “next stage of grief.”
the A’s seem to be somewhere higher mentally. as a dead-last team, when they could be phoning it in, they are playing not just well but with focus, interest, and a sense of fun. it’s like they beat the hard part of losing, the psychology, and are in a space that most teams don’t ever get to—somewhere past the doomy desperation, the self-doubting nausea that teams getting knocked out late in the season must be feeling, and around that corner. i mean, they passed that place a while back and they’ve had the benefit of months to get over it. it’s like they’re playing with the wisdom of survivors… “yes, we know what you’re feeling, texas, it sucks real bad. it hurts you, it hurts your play, and it hurts to watch. but you’ll get over it once you hit rock bottom. here, let us help you get there.”
but it’d be so interesting to watch the A’s current state against a team with more immediate needs than these teams who’re just now realizing they’re also-rans. like, what if the A’s were spending september with boston instead of texas? i bet boston wouldn’t be feeling so mighty right now. with the A’s calm right now, they’d be able to go to fenway and, if not calm, at least quiet the fans down a little. so i’m hoping that they find a way to carry this mentality over to next year. it’ll be difficult because all that new-season stuff (the feeling that it’s a new day, which usually helps losing teams to forget a bad season) is going to interfere with whatever groove they have now.
don't care if i ever get back.
It would be interesting
if they could get someone pretty cheaply like Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui….probably going to be some nice hitters for pretty cheap next year. And Chone Figgins would certainly be nice too
Oh, but if I catch a line drive by a girl, that’s girl-on-girl action, the twiceness is eliminated, and it just counts once - gigglingone
Imo any of those guys would be like Giambi…might get lucky, or might waste half a season blocking someone young. I don’t think any are worth it.
by chri5 on Sep 23, 2009 10:31 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Just give it to the kids
May 2009
Roation:
Braden
Anderson
Cahill
Gio
Mazz
Lineup:
C Suzuki
CF Sweeney
LF Hairston
3B Beltre
DH Powell
RF Carter (See “May” 2009)
1B Barton
2B Ellis
SS Pennington
I’d also be in favor of playing Cunningham or Doolittle over Hairston if he continues to struggle next season.
Note: Rajai is traded and Buck is dead to me.
Trevor Cahill is *so* not a #3 starter in the big leagues.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I will however comment
but completely unrelated to the wars that have been going on in other cahill sucks/is good threads.
I completely agree that right now there are better SP alternatives in terms of us winning more games. But what does that really do? Are two games gonna help us next year? Probably not.
That said, there is no stat that can predict the damage to the psyche yo-yoing a kid between the majors and minors will do. You gave Cahill the starting job at the beginning of the year, and yeah it was a fucked decision. But now you are kind of handcuffed here because while sending him down is a good stats decision, I don’t think it’s a good baseball development decision. He’s got about a 4.5 ERA, and I don’t think that’s bad enough to where it’s damaging his psyche to be up on the major league team, not doin as well as he was in the minors.
Obviously this thought is very subjective, making actually much less defensible than the stats base arguments against Cahill. Either way though, you have to take it into consideration.
Why would it "damage his psyche" to be told "go to Sacramento and learn a breaking ball"?
It’s reasonable, it’s well-defined, and it’s presumably temporary.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Just out of curiosity...
If Cahill comes into ST throwing a quality breaking ball and carries it into the games (ST games, of course) does your opinion change?
The monster at the end of this blog.
If Todd Linden bats like .500 during Spring Training, do you give him a big league job?
Shit, wait. I did that wrong.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
That's not the same thing
The question is whether he has a good breaking ball, not whether he has a sub-4 ERA in spring or whatever other stupid statistical measure you want to use.
To answer grover’s question— yes, if he’s throwing an average or better breaking ball in spring, evaluated through whatever means the A’s and their scouts evaluate such things, then I’m far more willing to send him out there in April.
A better example for hitters would be a guy who’s hitting 30% line drives in spring. Linden’s batting average was clearly the result of fluky luck on balls in play over a small sample.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Which is why I think Anderson made it
He showed the tools in ST that predicted the kind of success we’re now seeing in the regular season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, sort of
It was still a terrible idea to put him in the rotation at the start of the season. He was predictably pants-tastic in April.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
But there's a pretty reasonable school of thought
that says a pitcher can’t become really good in month #3 until he’s given a months 1 & 2. So other than service time considerations, which is a separate philosophical question (“should it be a factor if a player is otherwise ready?”), I’m not sure you can begrudge putting Anderson in the rotation on the basis that he struggled his first month.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Plenty of pitchers do not struggle in their first month
and you’d be on pretty thin ice arguing that a pitcher with 2 AAA starts in his life has nothing left to learn at that level.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
"other than service time considerations"
don’t you think that the Giants would prefer to be paying Lincecum 400k next year rather than $5 million? The A’s very well may have shortened their window of contention significantly by having Anderson and Cahill in the rotation to start the year.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Not true
If the A’s had waited until mid-May to call up Anderson and Cahill they’d get to control their rights through 2016. As it is, both pitchers will be eligible for FA after the 2015 season. You’re making it sound like the A’s went from a 10 year window to a 3 year window. Maybe tone it down a skosh.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Thats huge in trade value or the ability to keep excellent pitchers together.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You keep looking way far ahead with this team
I gotta ask you… where they calling home 4 years from now?
The monster at the end of this blog.
For me, that's exactly the issue.
If in spring training he shows a breaking ball that works, and a reasonably consistent arm slot, then I think that warrants a spot in the big-league rotation.
If he does not, then there is a very specific and rational reason to have him start in AAA. It needn’t be damaging to the psyche to be demoted so long as you know exactly what you’re demoted for and what you need to do to earn your way back.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
have you ever pitched?
I’ll admit I flamed out hard in High School, my dad flamed our hard in College. But I come from a family of baseball players, have known many ML pitchers.
Sure PT, it’s easy to claim it’s a reasonable decision. Because it is, from a FO standpoint. That doesn’t mean the pitcher will take it reasonably, they rarely do. C’mon man.
haha, this is the "offense" fight :-)
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Thinking about the A's for next season...
Is a lot like thinking about this season’s A’s last offseason. Lots of optimism surrounded by doubt. Young pitching, same offensive holes. Only this time, our minor league help is closer to being here. Honestly, I don’t see us competing next year…but I think we could take advantage of that…
Call up Wallace, Carter, Cardenas….compile our lineup with our future studs…and let them get their learning curve out of the way in a season we wouldn’t have competed in anyways. I dunno if this is a good idea or not, but it kinda makes me excited for the future.
As for a rotation, I think we’ll need one veteren starter to fill in because of Outman’s injury. Otherwise, we’re pretty solid.
Braden
Anderson
Veteren Starter
Cahill
Gio/Mazzaro (whoever looks like they need less work)
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Sep 23, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions
I'd add something to this:
Call up Wallace, Carter, Cardenas….compile our lineup with our future studs…and let them get their learning curve out of the way in a season we wouldn’t have competed in anyways.
As long as it is in May/June, and they are all three handling AAA by then, I agree with that.
I don’t think we should just throw them out there, service-time and/or unspectacular AAA numbers be damned.
"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be." -- Peter Gibbons
by dtownmbrown on Sep 23, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
What's the status on Duchscherer?
Won’t he be back?
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
He's a Free Agent.
His personal depression issues aside, and whether or not he’d actually even pitch next year, I’m sure somebody will pay for a 2 time all star pitcher.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
He's a FA, right?
But i really don’t think he should be accounted for at this point. We have no idea if he even wants to continue playing baseball anytime soon.
Random question
How bad was Milton Bradley’s tenure in Oakland? What I recall was that, the first year, everything seemed peaceful, whereas the 2nd year, your whole clubhouse seemed in disarray, with Bradley eventually bashing Beane on the way out. I assume a lot of the random spec on Milton and Oakland right now has more to do with a “he’s been there before, so let’s toss that team in there”.
I ask because the Cubs would probably eat 99.9% of the entire deal, and he seems like a decent offensive upgrade. I’m sure Beane isn’t too keen on him, but IIRC, hasn’t Beane been willing to work with players who disagreed with him, if he thought it was good for the club?
Might be a cheap idea to ponder, but I don’t know how badly the bridges were burnt.
As for the A’s in general, I don’t see why there wouldn’t be optimism. The pitching looks excellent, the system has some offensive quality that should be up within a year or two. Not sure enough of those bats will be ready to make a difference in 2010, and probably need a stopgap bat or two.
I like Cardenas more than some, but I think he should start the season off in AAA. You have to find spots for Carter and Wallace, though. Might as well let Brett see if he can play some 3rd in his youth, while eventually phasing him to another spot.
bleh bad typing on my part at the end
meant to say that you have to eventually make a spot for Carter/Wallace if they keep producing.
Was there a reason why Brett couldn’t hit at home? I’m too lazy to check advanced stats right now, so maybe it was simply bad luck.
Some articles on the Bradley/Beane thing....
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/05/SP3CRD9EQ2.DTL – that’s a good article on the situation back then.
I’m trying to find the exact quote, but i believe Milton said he “wanted to punch Billy Beane in the mouth.”
Bradley's hit really badly this year
His numbers are way, way down — in essentially the same number of PAs as last season, he’s OPSing .775, with a SLG of .397.
This is in addition to his usual injuries and volatile behavior. Before even considering this, the A’s would need to figure out exactly why his hitting has suddenly fallen off a cliff — because if it’s due to all his injuries finally catching up with him and eroding his bat speed, then the A’s should stay far, far away from him.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
its all about the OBP!
if his slugging recovers watch out!
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Not Rajai! Not Pennington!
Sigh.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I'll say it again
Bradley performed (and behaved) his best while playing for Ron Washington.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Sep 23, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
A's are the best last place team in mlb
If they continue on this run, they could be the best under .500 team in mlb, only white sox and brewers are better. Which will lead them to the promised land of the 14th/15th pick
there is hope!
Meh
Remember how good we were 1st half last year? Things can change quickly. Plus a lot of our wins have been against bad and or struggling teams. I’ll remain pessimistic until I actually see on field success next year.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
Be very wary of Pennington's performance this year.
He’s putting up numbers that he’s really never put up in the minors. He’s a stop gap until somebody better (Green, hopefully) comes along. If the opportunity were to arise that a Yunel Escobar or a JJ Hardy because available (at a fair price), there is no reason that Pennington should stop the A’s from trading for him.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
If he's our SS until Green is ready, that isn't exactly a stop-gap
Most prospects don’t have careers that long.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Here here
that ISO is not going to repeat itself and his walk rate isn’t that good.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
what other alternatives are there?
FA market: crosby, cabrera, tejada, scutaro, green, etc
trades: the price will be high for those mentioned already
from within there’s petit, horton in AA/AAA unless they hope Green pulls a G. Beckham and is ready anytime soon
by Asfan4ever723 on Sep 23, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I would support Tejada, Hardy
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Haven't the A's been burned
enough getting guys who once hit in the NL, and we watch them flame out in the major leagues, not AAAA. Pennington is a very good defensive shortstop, and really seems to work well with Ellis. He was about a .260 hitter in the minors, what is wrong with that, I don’t think Crosby ever hit .260 did he,and he is not as good defensively as Pennington. On the one hand people say bring up Carter, Cardenas, etc. and let them get the experience because they will be really good, but don’t allow for any improvement for Pennington. He knows he is not a power hitter and doesn’t try to be, unlike Crosby, who never figured that out. Pennington is just fine as a SS, the A’s should worry about 3B.
Crosby hit .302 in the minors, actually.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
No they haven't been burned by NL guys
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends how you define it
Charles Thomas (who actually might be a pretty good comp for the “trade Rajai” folks to look at, though I’m not familiar with all his numbers from that one good season in ATL), Holliday (given his COL and STL production), even Hairston could count as “productive NL hitters who burned the A’s.”
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Price for Hardy
Are you thinking the price for Hardy would be high? He’s hitting under .200 since his return to the majors. I was thinking Mortenson plus Wuertz would get him.
I think you're underestimating the acquisition cost
He’s not that far from several very good years, the brewers know that. if it were just a mortenson/wuerz type of deal, I suspect other teams would have pounced during the deadline.
by eastbayexpat on Sep 23, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Pennington hasnt been fully healthy until last yr
So it isnt surprising to see him regain some of his status the last 2 seasons. We know about the the defense, infield arm and strike zone judgement which BA ranked him best in the system from 2008. Seems like he’s increased his extra base hits over that time too. Put him in the 9 spot isnt the worst situation since he has several qualities that will be useful to the team. A pre 09 jason bartlett or ryan theriot type SS isnt a terrible comparison to what Pennington might be.
I can't see us competing
Just no power at the majors and I don’t feel like rushing more prospects with the hope that we might compete. Unless Lew opens up the wallet big time and springs for some legit FA’s (not going to happen) the offense just won’t be good enough to win.
That being said, I expect the pitching to be as good next year as it is right now so of course we could end up being competitive for a couple months but I feel that the lack of offense will kill us eventually.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Jack Cust
I think he will end up a cross between Erubiel Durazo (I forgot that he never hit 30 HR in a season) and Matt Stairs. He won’t drop out of baseball but he probably won’t stick around as long as Stairs. Maybe he will be closer to Geronimo Berroa. Next season will be a good indicator of his career path IMO, if he doesn’t bounce back he could go the way of the A’s previous DH’s. At least it isn’t an injury problem at this point like John Jaha.
I must say the A’s have had some interesting DH’s the last 15 years. Besides the players above there was Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas (who “only” has 286 career HR, 5 less than Craig Biggio).
In 2005 Scott Hatteberg played DH 70+ times since Dan Johnson was at 1st and Durazo slipped into oblivion.
In 2002 David Justice, Ray Durham, and Scott Hatterberg split the DHing duties.
In 2001 Jeremy Giambi and Olmedo Saenz each DH 50+ games and Ron Gant pitched in 20 (Gant has more career HR than Frank Thomas BTW).
2000 was a DH party with 8 player with at least 8 games there.
Kevin Mitchell had 23 games at DH in 1998 to supplement Stairs.
Jose Canseco played 56 at DH in 1997 along with 5 other players with at least 16 games (including Patrick “I work out with a sledgehammer” Lennon and Dave Magadan).
That is quite a cast of characters that I just spent an hour researching.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Um Thomas has 521 HRs.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
stairs is approaching 300
not bad for a 12+ yr career
by Asfan4ever723 on Sep 23, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe he was looking at DH numbers only
Frank Thomas has 269 HR as a DH… but he has another 250 as a 1B.
I was actually sort of surprised by this. I really didn’t think he played first base that long (969 games) before becoming a DH only type.
I looked up Frank’s HR by position first a few weeks ago, when I heard that Ortiz had just set the record for most career HR by a DH.
nope, not DH numbers
A totally different player with the same name apparently. see above comment.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
The original Frank Thomas
was also a RH slugger, but is something like 6’8", and played for the Senators. He’s been a coach on-and-off for the last couple of decades.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I thought that was strange
I was looking at this page and saw it, #141 on the list. Turns out there is another Frank Thomas in baseball
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Cust will be out of the majors by 2012
He was great to have when the A’s were desperate for offense ( they probably still are), but paying the minimum vs 3-4 + mill or so. They’d probably trade him or non tender before he gets more expensive.
I think Cust is still a good signing at $4 million.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
The hot September means that we are fing up our 2010 draft pick.
and not much more than that.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 1:08 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
They're messing up their draft pick by
giving extended playing time to guys they need to evaluate. You can’t tell Sweeney, Moneypenny, Barton, etc. to not play hard and try to win ‘cause it messes with where the A’s drfat next June.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I know....
I just hate September winning streaks in losing years.
Barton has been hitting the ball with a lot of authority, when I have been at the park even his outs seem hard hit.
Moneypenny has just been getting lucky.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Good thing we didn't give him a chance this season
So we could pay Giambi $5 mil.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hey im there with you.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, probably is some luck involved
but I saw him turn on a 96 MPH inside fastball for a HR. Book on Moneypenny had always been you could overpower him inside. Maybe the HR was a fluke but a year ago no way does he catch up to that pitch.
One of his problems had been focus and channeling his energy, so if he’s starting to get the mental part of his game under control we could be seeing some actual improvement. At the very least his performance thus far has convinced me not to bring back Orlando Cabrera or a similiar cheap, stop-gap type SS in 2010. If the A’s can land a definitive improvement at the position than they should go for it… I certainly wouldn’t let Cliff Pennington stop me from making the move.
The monster at the end of this blog.
He has never had an ISO this good at any level.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Juicing, maybe?
Seriously though, if his hole was on the inside part of the plate and he’s learned how to handle that pitch than his resulting pull power should increase. That would raise his ISO. I have little doubt that part of his recent success stems from luck but I think there might be some actual growth as well. What the ratio of luck/growth is I don’t know.
The monster at the end of this blog.
yeah but its 35% better
thats a lot.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Some could be real, some could be luck
Even if he regresses some offensively, he can still be a perfectly acceptable starting SS.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The draft is a crap shoot anyway
A team has as good a chance getting a good player at #12 as at #6. Half of the first round picks never make it to the majors anyway, any A’s fan should know that, a history of poor picks. But the A’s are not alone.
Yeah, see, this is just flat-out false
People have researched this stuff. There is a very steep decline curve from the #1 overall pick (who will probably be a star player) to the #15 overall pick (unlikely to even be replacement level).
I’d be surprised if #12 is worth half what #6 is.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Uh.
First thing: If there’s just as good of a chance of getting a good player at #12 vs. #6…why do we even have a draft? A meaningless four September wins were the difference between San Diego getting the hometown Strasburg, or having to settle for Donavan Tate.
Second: History of poor picks?! Since 2003, the Padres have produced Chase Headley, Will Venable, and Kyle Blanks. That’s it. The Astros have turned their last seven first round picks into one major league player: Chris Burke, he of a .674 career OPS. I could do this all day.
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
It's funny 'cause it's false
Last study I saw on draft success rates had the A’s as the best team in the majors.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I always think about this when I look at players on other teams that came through the A's system.
There is quite a group of alums!!!!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
But not every draftee is a star!!!
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!111
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I should add...
I’d have liked to seen Cunningham called up. Oh well.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yes, I don't understand why not.
Hairston should be sent home and Cunningham starting every day.
I've been looking at the track record of teams like the A's
Teams that do a lot better in the 2nd half, including a big spike in offense, but end up just under 500 for the season. Am halfway through the research, but the fascinating thing so far is that there isn’t a lot of in-between. These teams mainly get a lot better or regress the next year. Small sample size obviously (I’m looking post 1969 expansion) so who knows??
Here are the examples I found so far.
The criteria was a) a 75-79 win season (which seems where the A’s will finish) b) at least a .080 percent increase in W/L % from first half to second (“halves” are always defined as post AS break, though we know that’s not really a half); c) 20-25%+ increase in Runs Scored average; and d) at least +80 improvement in run differential in the 2nd half. The A’s are currently +.108 on the W/L; +1.09 on RS, or a 26% increase, and +83 in run differential improvement.
1973 Braves .441-525 in W/L +84
4.54 to 5.70 in RS
-23 to +48 RDiff (the “half” was only 60 games that year, so this is in line with A’s improvement)
76-85 and then improved to 88-74 the following year
1998 Reds .438-.521 W/L
4.17-5.19 RS
-52 to +42 RDiff
77-85 and then 96-67 and in playoffs in 1999
1971 Reds .446-543 W/L
3.40-3.90 RS
-24 to +29 RDiff
They’re kind of a “maybe” given the smaller offensive improvement, though the biggest problem is this is the one bad year (pre-Joe Morgan) of the Big Red Machine. Game sure has changed, hasn’t it, when they were struggling to approach 4 runs a game!!! With Little Joe they won 95 games in 1972 and went to the WS vs….. the A’s!
1998 Rockies .416-.548 W/L
4.58-5.73 RS
-79 to +50 RDiff
77-85 fell to 72-90 in 1999
2000 Tigers .452-.526 W/L
4.56-5.64 RS
-65 to +61 RDiff
79-83 fell to 66-96 in 2001
All the other examples of similar just under .500 teams like the A’s who got better in the 2nd half are a lot sketchier in terms of the in-season improvement. So far three improvements and two declines, but two of the improvements were steep.
Will update over next few days or so.
by eliot123 on Sep 23, 2009 1:19 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
So given the small sample size
…and the fact that the data is all over the map, you really can’t tell anything from this second half surge.
by richwol1 on Sep 23, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Comparing OF's
WAR for 2009 so far
Ethier 2.8
Swisher 3.6
Sweeney 3.6
So according to this Sweeney is just as valuable (more slanted towards defense) than 2 hitters w/ OPS aorund .900 and aorund 30 hr’s each
That's unpossible
and makes it hard for me to take the metric seriously.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I just don't understand why there's such a vitriolic reaction
Everytime someone mentions how valuable Sweeney has been worth this year. Sure his defensive stats are ridiculously good, but since we don’t have any stats to contradict such a conclusion, I don’t see why there’s such an assumption that he isn’t that good.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Sep 23, 2009 2:48 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Because
1. Defensive stats are less accurate than offensive ones
2. Defensive aptitude takes longer to measure (i.e. get an adequate sample)
3. People’s eyeballs don’t see as good a defender as the stats show
I’m not saying they’re all valid reasons. I am saying that I wouldn’t count on him putting up 3.6 WAR without offensive improvement next year.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
In other words
You might as well not even try to quantify defensive aptitude. Errors are one thing, but trying to come up with some sort of algorithm is ridiculous. It’s not really an n of 1000 when you measure over a year, it’s still an n of 1 because you’re looking at the same guy even if you stack him against other fielders.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 23, 2009 3:28 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know how you got there
Errors are useless measurements, and defensive stats are pretty good. They just aren’t great (at least until hit fx happens).
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yes errors are useless, too
There just arent any hard metrics other than put outs. In baseball it doesn’t matter the route you took to the ball, how much ground you cover, how shallow you play, whether you had an easy bounce or tough bounce — all that matters are outs.
Offensive stats have hard outcomes: single, double, triple etc and more importantly have an expectation of failure. On the other hand, defense is an expectation of success provided you have played the position long enough. With so little room for variation, how could anyone even begin to quantify whether one fielder is a better defender than another if you assume a basic level of competency?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 23, 2009 4:27 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It's true there aren't as detailed hard metrics
Which is why defensive stats aren’t as good as hitting stats. That said, they’re far from useless, and people a lot more invested than me have put a lot of time and effort into using the resources available to do (a lot) better than nothing.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
They might be better at hitting stats than judging true talent
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what you mean
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
The buckets for fielding stats might be better at judging fielding than hitting buckets
since hitting buckets such as singles doubles and triples homers have their own component of luck in measuring what the true talent of a hitter is in the one thing that he can control, namely hitting the ball hard.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Regression to the mean is likely to be harsher for defensive stats than for offensive ones
As a consequence, Sweeney probably will not project better than Swisher next season, and may not project better than Ethier.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
De FENCE Clap Clap Clap.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
It's scores like that that make you have to question the defensive side of the equation
Are we sure we’ve set the scales on the defensive side correctly?
The monster at the end of this blog.
We're pretty sure how much "catch" vs. "no catch" is worth
It’s pretty devastating— the difference between the positive value of an out and the negative value of a hit is about 8-10ths of a run.
The question is how well we can assess how many plays the average fielder would have made.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
81-81 for the A's next year.
The offense has very little promise, and may even be worse overall without a half year of Holliday, who even in his diminished state was still light years better than the rest of this team. The pitching will be markedly better, which accounts for all of the improvement. 2011 could be a very fun year, as Carter, Cardenas, Wallace, and others might have truly arrived by then.
Rotation:
Anderson
Hudson (don’t rain on my parade, bitches)
Braden
Cahill
Gonzzaro
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
so depressing...
and may even be worse overall without a half year of Holliday, who even in his diminished state was still light years better than the rest of this team.
Ugh. haaaate.
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Sep 23, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
What with one thing and another, I find it very unlikely that Hudson will hit the market this offseason
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
There is no reason why the Braves shouldn't pick it up.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 23, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not a huge stats person...
so I don’t have a ton of numbers at my disposal to back this up, but I would say that the A’s recent offensive surge has a lot to do with the fact that like 3 guys (Rajai, Kennedy & Sweeney, I think) are all batting like .400 for the past few weeks. It’s fairly easy to score bunches of runs when like a 3rd of your lineup is getting hits every other time they step into the batter’s box (and then are stealing bases at-will whenever they get on-base, in Raj’s case). However, even those guys aren’t hitting for a lot of power, and once those .400 averages dip down to .260 or so, the “slash and steal” A’s offensive machine will likely come to a screeching halt.
I think the A’s pitching staff will be fine for the next few years, but like everyone else, I’m pretty concerned about the offense. The team will need a lucky confluence of events to put together a really “competitive” offense next season. Among the lucky things that need to happen: Eric Chavez needs to come back and hit like he did in 2005 – near .800 OPS – most likely as the 2010 team’s DH; Jack Cust needs to regain enough power to justify playing him in the field on a semi-regular-basis; SCott Hairston needs to hit like he did in San Diego and Wallace and Carter need to come in and be above-average hitters from the get-go, while Rajai needs to keep getting on-base and stealing bases.
Those are a lot of things that need to go right. I think it’s more realistic that the team just try to put the best defensive team they can out on the field for at least the first part of the season and really try to start the year off with the old “defense and pitching” strategy…at least until Wallace and Carter are completely ready to contribute and totally efff up the defense part of that equation.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
My worst fears realized when
you suggested Cust in the outfield on a semi-regular basis. That is unwatchable. Cust in street clothes is a better option. You didn’t mention that Barton has also hit about .380 the past couple of weeks, and think Pennington was in the .350 area also. More importantly you didn’t mention that running as been a major part of the offense also which has contributed a lot of scoring chances. And all this with an occasional bases loaded popup by Hairston. Throw in a Cust strikeout or 3, and it has been a nice little run.
I can't believe I have to do this again...
Cust’s bat, even in this ridiculously down year, has been about five runs above average. Not replacement-level, average.
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
He defies convention without being flashy.
I’m convinced this makes people uncomfortable.
Sure, he’s not cleanup material but I have to believe most teams would love to have him hitting sixth or seventh.
by Rancho Canseco on Sep 23, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
You have to do this again....
…because his 6.4 runs above average bat is only above average when you don’t take into account the -17.5 runs (by fangraphs/the book, at least) it costs to have him DH. He’s still turning in ~1 WAR for the season thus far, and even at that has more than earned his paycheck, but you’re right: this has been a ridiculous down year.
That said, Jack Cust is my favorite major league player and I also get tired of hearing about the K’s without giving credit for the walks. And even after this down year I sincerely hope we can expect him to go back to the “wait, mash & k” guy we love so dearly.
Call me a cock-eyed optimist but I voted Yes. (thanks Lerner and Lowe)
alaska A residing in northern Idaho.
When it comes to the A's I'm going back to the 80's
because the future so bright I have to wear shades.
Why would anyone vote - we won't contend?? OK OK before you get your knickers in a twist - I do read the posts and I understand why you would vote that way.
But – I’m a fan and in my fan book of rules it says “Support your team” and “Bring your optimism to each game” and “Always think you will win – even in the face of a boatload of information to the contrary.” I go into every season believing in the A’s and thinking we will have a great season. They have to prove me wrong and this year did so in a myriad of ways!!!
I subscribe to the Taj Adib school of thought:
The team will need a lucky confluence of events to put together a really "competitive" offense next season.
I believe in the intangibles…..the stuff that can’t be quantified…..the psychomumbojumbo of motivation and a team that gels and does amazing things. I hope the A’s will be a team like that – but even if they aren’t – I’ll be rooting them on. Wincing at every loss, complaining about the umps, hating the manager’s poor decisions. And most importantly rejoicing at every win.
I’ll be thinking all off-season about the lucky confluence of events and waiting – like a kid on Christmas morning- to see what 2010 brings us!!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions
You're either with us or against us!
R U a real fan…or a teereerist?????
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You have to ask????? ;-)
I’m so with you – although someone DID ask me recently in a game thread how I might explain myself to Homeland Security…….hmmmmmm
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I second this motion!!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Dammit!
The entirety of AN and SBNation is a ploy to get terrorist information and plans from you, BERRYJO. We’ve been slipping you subtle hints over the last couple of months. Of course you had to go and figure it out…psssh.
Please remedy my confusion
and thrust me back to the day.
The silence of your seclusion
brings night into all you say.
I'm just getting worried about when the DHS does it's random trolling of the web!!!
If they cart me away – who’s the lawyer here I can call to get me out!?!?! Haha
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I would offer to help, but I'm actually posting from a cell deep in a 13th century Moldovan dungeon complex
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Do you have a cell phone?? Hahaha
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually the poll said "compete", not contend.
It seems pretty hard for them not to compete, at least by my definition, so that’s why i voted for compete :)
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
Ah - you're right!! I took it to the extreme like my fandom does at times!!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 23, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
where are alll the tailgaters?????
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Sep 23, 2009 6:23 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Oakland Coliseum Post Steroid Era Baseball
The A’s much maligned slow starts are harder to overcome in the post steroids era. A lot of it has to do with the location of the Oakland Coliseum near the Pacific Ocean as well as the deep and wide bowl shape of the park. Prior to the All-Star game the air is colder and damper and the air pressure is much higher that other parks. At night when most of the games are played air density rises rapidly just a few yards above the field. That makes it near impossible to muscle a ball out over the fence. And given the cavernous foul territory hitters are faced with the task of hitting line drives to the gaps to avoid outs. To me that seemed to be why Giambi and Holliday had such a bad start this year. Logically the A’s need to collect gap hitters for the pre-summer weather and then unleash the power hitters after the All Star break. I am surprised that the A’s haven’t figured that out yet and haven’t worked on teaching more gap hitting at the beginning of the year. Post steroid era baseball is going to require a fundamental rethink of baseball tactics and strategy at the Coliseum. For example Davis might be a Coliseum prototype. Hit the gap, run like hell. Focusing on power numbers may be a mistake as any number of non-steroided A’s hitters can attest to.
The A's have like 15 guys who, right now,
IMO, are playing way over their heads. The team’s record for this period of time is right around .500. I can’t see one reason why everyone would keep up this level of play and compete next year.
Now if Braden were to return,in form, and a lot of other stuff fell into place, I’d say it’s not completely out of reach. But a lot of stuff needs to happen.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
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