Possible Free Agent Targets: Akinori Iwamura
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:18 AM PDT
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PrintUnfortunately, I haven't been able to write much lately as trying to find a job has started taking more precedence as the prospect of being unemployed for a year has become much more real as we get closer to that milestone. This should be the first of hopefully many, depending on my employment status, looks at possible free agent acquisitions. This piece will focus on Akinori Iwamura, who while not technically a free agent, is likely to have his team option declined, since the Rays' have Ben Zorbist, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez (the PTBNL from the Kazmir deal) all available at league minimum to fill his starting spot at 2b and Evan Longoria well established at his former hot corner perch. Iwamura, according to Cot's Contracts, has a $4.25m and a $250k buy out. There is however, a special provision in Iwamura's contract. Since Iwamura has only three years of service time since coming over from Japan, he would normally only qualify for salary arbitration, regardless of whether the Rays pick up his option, but his contract contains a provision that requires the Rays to extend him before his contract expires, or to release him.
Aki has shown a slightly above league average bat with a career .332 wOBA. This year Aki is exceeding that figure in limited playing time after returning from knee surgery earlier in the year. This years' .341 wOBA may be partially explained by Iwamura's .366 BABIP. However, Iwamura has always had high BABIP, which can partially be attested to his 20% career line drive rate, good speed, ample ground ball percentage, and hitting left handed. The thing that really jumps out and makes me think that he can sustain his high BAPIP number are that while Iwamura's walk rate is league average he swings at balls at dramatically below league average rate, this year only 14% of all pitches out of the zone compared to a 25% league average.
There are some reasons to worry about possible regression. Aki's .366 BABIP is a career high and his infield fly ball percentage is a flukishly low 1.7%. That being said his HR/FB rate is also likely to regress above his career low 1.7% this year back toward his 4% career average, which should make up some of the difference in lost output from a BABIP with a higher ISO from hitting more home runs. Moving forward at a still youngish 30. I expect that Aki will be slightly more than league average with the bat (2.5 BRAA) over the next two or three years.
Now lets look at defense. In the Majors, Iwamura has played both 3b and 2b with the (Devil) Rays. Tom Tango had the great idea of polling fans who watch their team's defense for a ton of games every year. While observation in this manner is far from perfect, it does provide an additional reference point to UZR. This years Fans' Scouting Report has Aki above average in every category, with an overall rating of good (3.9 out of 5), though coming back from an injury he might have been a little slower initially. Compare that with the 2008 The Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans:
| Player | Pos | Position-Specific | Overall Position-Neutral |
Instincts | FirstStep | Speed | Hands | Release | Strength | Accuracy | Ballots | Agreement Level |
| Iwamura, Akinori | 2B | 73 | 72 | 75 | 72 | 61 | 76 | 83 | 56 | 77 | 39 | 0.76 |
And now for 2007:
| Player | Pos | Overall Position- Neutral |
Instincts | FirstStep | Speed |
Hands | Release | Strength | Accuracy | Ballots | Agreement Level |
| Iwamura, Akinori | 3B | 78 | 86 | 84 | 65 | 76 | 85 | 63 | 81 | 27 | 0.79 |
This is fun right? The reason why I bring this up is several fold. First UZR numbers for Aki are muddied by the fact that he has played two different positions of over the last three years so the sample sizes are small, but they show him as a league average fielder at both 2b and 3b, where he won several gold gloves in Japan. I would expect Iwamura to have league average to slightly above league average defense at either position.
Before coming to the United States, Aki Iwamura suggested that he was willing to play SS, CF, or 2B in addition to his traditional 3b. By signing Aki, the A's would be acquiring a starting caliber 3b/2b, which would allow the A's to keep Wallace in the minors or shift him over to 1b without rushing Adrian Cardenas. This further protects against a Mark Ellis injury which is not an infrequent occurrence, and would prevent rushing Cardenas to fill in and is surely a better option than playing Gregorio Petit.
I have suggested in the past with regards to Adam Kennedy that it would be problematic to have a back up infielder who could not play SS. This is especially true with the likelyhood that Cliff Pennington bombs and there needs to be another option at SS. Because of his defensive reputation I think Iwamura would able to play a semi respectable SS, around -5 to -10 FRAA, which wouldn't negatively affect his value with the increased position runs. Which coupled with Pennington's strong showing this year, makes it less likely that that possibility would come into play. The A's depth has not been good for the last couple of years and the ability to add a starting caliber player for what I suspect could be a $4.5m per year for two years, a $9m total package coming off of his knee injury.
Finally, and I have no knowledge of how much revenue it would generate, but adding a Japanese star could do the A's well by increasing attention, merchandise sales, and reaching out to the Japanese fan base in the Bay Area and abroad. If the A's signed Iwamura, maybe the next time they open the year in Japan, they will have more supporters in the Tokyo Dome.
When it all comes down to it, I see Adam Kennedy wanting a similar contract for less production, especially at third base. Furthermore, Aki's versatility would serve the A's well compared to a strictly 3b only candidate like Adrian Beltre, who would also probably cost more.
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As far as I can tell he is fully recovered from his ACL surgery
He had an oblique strain in 2007 and missed a game with the flu last year. Obviously signing him would be contingent on a full work up on his knee.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for another informative post, dfa.
I still want to see Kennedy back next year regardless of what else the A’s decide to do. He has won me over for at least a one year deal in 2010, much like Raj Davis will/should be back in 2010.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Kennedy has not been a good player for years
This is the first time that Kennedy has produced above league average offense since 2005 and this is the best offensive season since 2001. This year is a complete fluke and he has been not good with the glove. And guess the biggest fluke of his carer makes him barely a league average player. Resigning Kennedy is a fools move.
Davis should obviously be back or traded for very good value to fill a need, but nothing less.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
would there be room on the roster for both Kennedy AND Aki?
Play the hot hand and the other relegated to scutar-style super utility status?
Not really
unless you don’t ever plan on playing wallace or cadenas at third, don’t want a back up SS, or think ellis will be on the dl all year and you don’t want cardenas to play there.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Really, I'd like to keep all of our shiny AAA toys in AAA
or at least until after the trading deadline. If one of them is really knocking on the door, we could trade either of those guys to make room. My thinking would be Aki for 2 years, Kennedy for 1.
And I thought one of your arguments is that Aki could be a back up SS.
Right but there isn't room for two back up MIs
Kennedy makes no sense for the A’s moving forward.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Prefer Kennedy also
The A’s have finally assembled a group of players that can hit for average. The only free agents worth considering would be power hitters. Turns out homeruns are important. They win games. Of course A’s lack power at traditional positions: 1b, corner outfield and 3b. Since the pitchers probably need another year before A’s challenge Angels I’d prefer to see the A’s stay patient with their young players. Can Barton or Sweeney develop more power? Will Carter and Wallace be ready by all-star break 2010?
This comment contradicts itself
Kennedy is a free agent. The comment claims that the A’s should only go after power hitters. The post also claims that it wants Kennedy back. That is a contradiction.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Ooops
Im currently laid up with a 102* fever and the flu… I promise ill be back to telling people off soon :-P
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the "Japanese Revenue" Boost Notion is Bogus
He’s not Ichiro, or Dice-K, Matsui. He’s an OK player— unlikely to do much if anything to boost the team’s ticket sales.
Here’s the thing about next year: between Carter, Wallace and Cardenas I think it very likely that ALL of them will be up, and probably for good, at some point in the season. Maybe not until mid-season, but their bats are too dynamic to be held back for the entire year. So whatever the A’s do at the corner infield spots, or at DH, at the beginning of the season must be strucutured around the notion that if it isn’t yet the three prized prospects it has to be a relatively cheap holding action. Daric Barton is such a player. Jack Cust for one more season could be such a player. Not sure who fits the bill at 3B. Which may be why either Wallace or Cardenas gets the job from the get-go, more likley Wallace.
I agree that Kennedy will ask for more than the A’s will or should be willing to give. And I agree that it is likely Ellis gets hurt and misses some significant stretch of time. So the theory here is not bad— but I’m not sure about the price tag.
He was a very good player in Japan
though over here he isn’t. Im not expecting big money, but in order to make an extra quarter of a million dollars on merchandising they only need to sell two thousand jerseys at $125 a pop. I think that is reasonable.
I think that Cardenas is going to struggle when he gets to the big leagues as he usually does when getting promoted that would suggest working him in slowly and not really a throw him in as an injury replacement starter and hope he can carry water on a team that I think can contend.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think the merch margins are that big
but I agree with your point that there will be some marketing revenue that would not come from an actual star like, say Matt Holliday.
That isn't profit but revenue IIRC they sell jerseys for $125 or so
I don’t know the margin but I can imagine that like in all clothing its pretty high.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude, this is a time for strategic retreat.
If you can talk about how much money the team will “make” and then it turns out you’re talking about gross revenue, that kind of calls into question any claim you ever make about team finances.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
What about
the claims he made about NASA and the microphones in his bathroom?
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean the National Association of $#%@ Audiophiles?
I thought that one was common knowledge.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
???
I have no idea what you’re talking about. This is a current news reference maybe? I follow news even less than I follow movies.
Hey, I saw your namesake on the stage yesterday. Local production of The Producers. It opens tonight, but I went to the preview with all the other stage junkies. It’s a great production: good cast, especially the ensemble, and very well directed.
In the buddy scenes I thought it could be you and me, except that I’d be Leo and you’d be Max.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
non sequitur, amigo.
I’d like to be Max.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Zero, not Nathan.
Though I like Nathan.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I saw the musical version.
Never seen either movie, though people were talking about them. Leo was Gene Wilder in that one?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
yes.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 19, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
The original Producers is the funniest movie I've ever seen
"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden
Im sure the materials, labor, and lisencing cant cost more than $25 bucks a jersey
so youre looking at 200k in profits.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
he is a backup option at third
I am not counting at all on Chavez and if the A’s can’t resign Kenedy than he would be a good 1 year option at third. I am hoping that Pennigton can show he can play in the bigs then a move to third for him or green would be a better option in 2011.
Pennington at ss not 3b
Long-term A’s need power-hitter at 3rd - unless .350 hitting Wade Boggs comes along. The good A’s teams have had 5 power hitters (a threat of 20hrs) in the line-up. Currently, A’s have 1-Cust, maybe 2 Hairston.
When did I say Pennington should play third?
The A’s just all around suck at offense this year, their OBP is 4th worst in the AL. They just need better hitters. Period.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Only if
Green comes out of spring as the starting SS which I give slim odds but Pennigton has played 3b well. His strong arm gives him a shot to play there. A’s do need a power hitter at third but none will be in their price range as FA and Wallace may not be able to play enough D there.
Need a backup SS
I usually just read and don’t post but I’ve been thinking about next year’s roster a lot.
If we do nothing, its a pretty good roster but we need 1 thing… A right handed SS/3B.
Someone needs to backup Pennington and someone needs to play 3B until Wallace is ready.
My vote: Jerry Hairston Jr. (cheap and versatile and we already have his brother so might come at a discount)
Postion players on roster:
1B: Barton, Everidge (Platoon?)
2B: Ellis
3B: Hairston Jr.
SS: Pennington
C: Suzuki, Powell
OF: Davis, Sweeny, Hairston, Cunningham, Patterson
DH: Cust
Patterson is also your backup 3B and 2B. Leaves 12 spots for pitchers.
I don’t see how Chavez sticks around if he can’t play 3B… why would we want him at 1B or DH? You could swap him with Barton, Cust or Everidge if he looks ok.
I see a lot of platoon potential with this roster… some of the splits our guys have are crazy (Hairston, Pennington, Powell). I know we don’t like platoons but look at the numbers… the roster is begging for it.
If Chavez or Cardenas or Wallace make a run at the 3B job, Hairston is a quality utility guy that can backup most anything. He could even platoon with Cliff who really struggles against lefties will hairston hits them well. And maybe have both Hairston brothers together will make them happy and hit better.
Whoever we add, it will be a short term rental and they really need to be SS capable. We shouldn’t add anyone who will keep our prospects down on the farm for too long. So we can’t spend too much and the individual should be aware they may become a backup/utility guy (which Hairston already is).
This roster would be crazy cheap and at least as effective as the team is right now. Gives us room to add the young guys as they mature without rocking the boat too much.
Pennington's splits
have actually wavered back and forth throughout his minor league career. I don’t think a platoon would be particularly beneficial for him, considering that I’m not sure you can predict which side of the plate he’ll be better from. Cliff actually hit much better against lefties than righties in the minors this year.
I agree about it being a crazy cheap and cost effective lineup. Moreover, most of the players there will probably be about average to a little-above average. So my thoughts would be that if you have this lineup, you should go out and spend a good hunk of money on an excellent starting pitcher or two. If you’re trying to compete, that is. Because more than likely one of our young guns will be injured next year and at least one or two will still be bad. So if you’re not spending any money on an average lineup, it would be a good idea to go out and spend a bunch to give you a premium pitching staff.
My 2 cents.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Sep 18, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree on the SP front
I don’t think adding a big name hitter is what we want. We need flexibility so our prospects have spots waiting for them when the time comes. There are no hitters out there that we can afford that are really going to improve the team. Adding just 1 guy to a multiyear contract will block at least 1 key prospect somewhere. Given salaries the young guys just have more value.
This will leave as much as $20+ million if the A’s are going to keep the budget at the same level. We could sign 1 or 2 solid pitchers for that.
The problem is that these pitchers will want 3-4 year deals. As much as I would like the option of keeping Mazarro or Gio down at AAA for a while, I think we need some room for them by the end of 2010. If Outman comes back then you really have an overabundance of SPs… I guess thats where a trade might come in.
I would honestly be content if we did absolutely nothing except sign a cheap 3B/SS for a temporary fill in. The team would be dirt cheap but it would also stay together and improve for many years.
pennington is a switch hitter
So I would totally agree with King Richard that any evidence of platoon splits should be taken with a grain of salt until the sample size gets much bigger.
Good writeup, DFA
But something to consider: wouldn’t the Rays pick up his option and then trade him? I would imagine he’d have some value on a one year deal for someone.
But if he becomes a FA, I would love to pick him up. If he could actually play SS that would be fantastic.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
Iwamura is so much better than Kennedy, it's not even funny
However, I believe there are better options to fill the hole at third base available on the market this offseason, starting with (health permitting) Adrian Beltre and Troy Glaus. The A’s need to actually invest in someone to fill the position, because there’s very little to cover it in the farm system. GIven that the team right now appears to have holes at short and first, too, and eventually at second once Ellis’s deal expires, they need all the prospects they can get just to fill those positions.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I guess you assume Wallace won't ever work out at 3B?
So if he moves to 1B, then Carter moves to DH? If Wallace can’t play third it really messes everything up and another prospect at 1B/OF/DH will be completely blocked.
Do we want to sign an aging Glaus or Beltre if it means no room for Cunningham or Doolittle or Barton?
Still need a backup SS… it would be nice to fill the SS and 3B voids without taking 2 roster spots.
I've basically come to the position that "blocking" prospects is never, ever a problem
Unless a guy can literally only fit into one position and is an absolute stud, it’s just not a consideration with me. Depth is extremely important and if a guy hits well enough, he’ll fit into the lineup somewhere.
I don’t expect more than one of Wallace or Carter to work out. Likewise, I only expect one good hitter out of Cunningham/Doolittle/Barton, and probably one average hitter. Pennington/Cardenas/Weeks should produce one good player and one decent player. I figure the current outfield will give one plus performer. That’s only 4 or 5 slots filled with above-average talent, at most (plus catcher, which is sort of sui generis). And I feel like that’s even a pretty optimistic projection.
Locking down a problem position with an above-average veteran makes that lineup look formidable instead of flimsy.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Barton is pretty much an average hitter already, no?
Granted it’s quick and dirty, but he’s got a 99 OPS+ for his career
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Yes, I know it is.
I meant in general, not in the context of position.
But I’ll stay latched onto the “Move Barton To 3B” idea until he’s not with the team anymore. It just makes too damn much sense to not TRY and do it, and I mean give him a good, extended chance to play there every day.
Really, if I were him, I’d be trying to learn 3B on my own this offseason.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I would support the moving barton to 3b idea.
I think he could be better there defensively than Wallace and his ego is probably sufficiently bruised since 2007 to realize that it is something he needs to try to do in order to save his career.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
the added versatility alone
would benefit his career further down the road if he gave a really strong effort at converting.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
True.
Honestly I wouldn’t mind seeing if he could don the catchers gear again and give the A’s the ability to put Powell at 1b DH or even try him at third more often.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Same
Even if he only were to catch once in a blue moon, just the ability + willingness to do so makes Powell infinitely more versatile.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Exactly.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
great idea
Then Barton could be a weak hitting, no power 3rd baseman instead of a weak hitting no power 1st baseman. Just great.
Your right gaining 10 runs or 1 WAR of value is dumb and Barton suxorz
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Misspoke, meant average player
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Wonder how much it would take to go after JJ Hardy
and then sign Iwamura, assuming that Tampa doesn’t pick him up an dlook to trade him.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Ugh
I’d rather stick with Pennington than pay for J.J. Hardy, to be honest. I think he’s going to be grossly overpriced.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Would you trade Rajai Davis for him?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
straight up?
Yes
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure
Both overvalued, but to make a horrible paraphrase of Ulysses Grant, one plays shortstop and the other doesn’t.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Find out what he drinks,
and send my other infielders a case!
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I think you are undervaluing position player prospects
Not by a country mile, mind you, but still i think the odds are at least somewhat better than you believe. Between the likes of Wallace-Carter-Cardenas and Weeks— given either their original draft position or their most recent prospect rating, or their actual performance level— I would think a 3/4 “hit” rate is more likely than 2 out of 4.
Davis-Sweeney-Hairston is as likely to be 2 of the 3 either coming close to this year (Davis) or repeating a new level of performance (Sweeney) or slightly improving (Hairston) as it is 1 of 3
I agree as to the Cunningham-Doolittle-Barton odds.
So I see “5+ plus” production— and Ellis is clearly capable of average to above average production for at least one more year, as is Cust.
Obviously it won’t all hit at once— but I do think that 2008/early 2009 will go down as the nadir of the A’s offense, and that sometime around 2011-12 we should see them return to 800+ runs (and it could happen as soon as next year)
Personally Im a big Beltre fan
I wonder about what kind of contract he is going to want. Do I like Beltre at the $12m level more than I like Aki at $4.5? How much concern do you have about Beltres’ plumeting LD rates, HR/FB rates, the collapse of his walk rate, and his abysmal .300 wOBA? Yes the defense is still there but the offense concerns me and he cant play 2b OF or SS.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought you raised a good point
in the fANpost that Iwamura’s flexibility is nice for a team with lots of advanced prospects, since we will be able to promote players to the majors when they show they are ready and Aki can move to wherever he needs to go in response.
When you talk about Beltre at the $12M level, do you mean a 1 year contract? His recent injury was definitely a freak one, but we aren’t even out from under our last 3b disaster contract and I’m understandably frightened of another one.
Sorry I meant that on a 1 year deal
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
There's no way on God's green earth Beltre will get $12M a year
His last contract is largely perceived— wrongly, but that doesn’t matter— as a disaster. That’s almost as much per year and in a weaker economy.
I think he’d be lucky— and happy— to get $8-10M a year. I think you could get him for 3+1 years for $30M guaranteed or less.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I meant that for a 1 year deal which requires a higher outlay
and that includes more money to get him to Oakland where he has a .240/.293/.365/.658 line and where free agent hitters are really jumping to go.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, I just don't see Beltre signing a 1 year deal no matter what happens
Players just don’t sign 1-year contracts when multiyear ones are available.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Who is going to sign him for multiple years?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait a minute DFA
if Beltre has earned his money in Seattle why wouldn’t teams be lining up to give him a long term deal?
Maybe I’m not the only one who doesn’t think much of his talents. OK now you can rip me to shreds for being wrong.
value and percieved value are different
also past and future performance are different. Just because Beltre made good on his last deal doesn’t mean that he will make good again on the next one. The economic climate is not good and there are some fairly good options at third next year:
Adrian Beltre SEA
Miguel Tejada HOU
Joe Crede MIN
Pedro Feliz * PHI
Chone Figgins LAA
Troy Glaus STL
Akinori Iwamura * TB
Mark DeRosa STL
Tejada DeRosa and Figgins will get multi year deals while Glaus and Crede will get one year rebuild deals. Beltre and Feliz might get two year deals but I think that Boras and Beltre would rather have a one year deal with a higher per year yield and count on his offense rebounding from this years disaster. I also see Tejada and Figgins filling the needs of anyone who is willing to put long term dollars in older players. I just don’t see enough of a market for three year 30m deal like PT suggests when there are other cheaper options.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
We sign Chone, I claw my eyes out ala Oedipus.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see him as a good option.
He will cost too much and if his BABIP sucks, he sucks.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope you're right, stathead.
I hope you’re right.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I just wouldn't give him 40+m over 4+ years
Doesn’t mean that it won’t work out for someone else. I just think that the risk isn’t one I would be willing to take on.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
DFA usually is right (don't tell him I said that)
Am I crazy if I want Tejada back if the A’s can get him for a 2-3 year deal to play third?
no but i would play him at SS
Which i think is a bigger need at the ML level if you use wallace there.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
i'd like miguel back.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
That would work.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait a minute DFA
are you saying I might be right about something?
Well if the Stats Killer and sirbed agree on something then the A’s should do it.
Its a preferable defensive alignment for the month you should wait untill you call up wallace
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm excited about Wallace
I just hope he can play well enough defensively at 3B. Along with Carter he’s the player I’m most looking forward to watch play.
These one-year-rebuild-your-value contracts are the labor-market equivalent of Bigfoot
People keep talking about them, but no matter what I can’t seem to find ’em.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Crede this year?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Did he have an offer to play somewhere for 2 years?
I certainly didn’t hear of one, and given his back problems I highly doubt any was offered.
I mean, of course players will take one-year deals if there aren’t any 2-year deals available… that’s not what I’m talking about…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Good news.
There’s no way Beltre is going to get anywhere near $12MM,
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Lieppmand did an interview recently
The A’s are committed to giving Wallace every chance to stick at 3B. In my mind, that means there’s little chance they’d be entertain Beltre or Glaus. Keep in mind, Lieppman also said the A’s see Carter as (endgame) a 1B.
I saw your comment below and I disagree about only one of Carter/Wallace panning out. I’m not entirely sure where they’ll play in the field but I think their bats stick in the bigs.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I don't understand that position on Carter at all
Everything I’ve heard about him says that he has serious, possibly unsolvable problems fielding ground balls. At least in the outfield, his defensive “contribution” would likely be more Andre Ethier than Mike Jacobs.
As for the “panning out” bit, I mean, even if both of them have a 2/3 chance of succeeding, you’re looking at well below a 50% chance of two good players. And I doubt their odds are as good as 2/3.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Define "good"
I don’t want to get into a semantics argument, so use whatever measure you want to set the level of “good” is in your eyes.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Producing more than 12 WAR (2 per full season) in an A's uniform.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Putting Iwamura at SS might be OK in a vacuum, but you've got a pretty terrible
left side of the IF with him and Wallace, behind a staff with 3 groundballers — Anderson, Cahill and Mazzaro — and maybe two lefties in Braden and Gio. Outman, Eveland, and Mortensen are also either groundballers or lefties.
I’m OK with signing Iwamura to a 3 year deal for 3B ($15M?), but I’d also want to get a defense oriented SS. Pennington has done very well, but I’d be happier if he were the utility guy. Adam Everett? JJ Hardy? Even Hu.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 18, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions
He was named later. Therefore he was the PTBNL.
And I used it because if you haven’t been paying attention you could have easily missed that part of the trade and still thought he was on the Angles.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I will write about this in my
post to be named later
by sirbed on Sep 18, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Third base pop
First of all good luck in the job search DFA. As far as bringing in a new 3B I’m all for it unless the A’s think Wallace is ready in which case Kennedy would be a good enough back-up.
The one player I don’t want to see the A’s sign is Adrian Beltre. He had a couple of big years in LA but he’s basically been stealing money in Seattle and he’s been hurt and only has 7 home runs in nearly 400 at bats this season.
The A’s need some power to come from somewhere especially if they start Sweeny in right field and Barton at first base. Hopefully either Wallace or someone the A’s bring in can provide some pop from third base.
I disagree
with your characterization of Beltre. Sure, he hasn’t ever matched his 2004 numbers, but he has contributed a lot for the Mariners. A big part of it is his defense, which pretty is Chavez-esque (when he was healthy) but his hitting has been generally above average, though weighted towards BA and SLG, with few walks. But a valuable player overall, even given his contract.
That said, this year has been pretty bad for him. He turned 30 at the start of the season, so he might really be on the decline.
A penny saved is a penny earned.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Your characterization of Beltre is libel
Beltre is getting paid what he is worth. He has provided $64.7m in value to the Ms so far and was signed for $65m. Basically he has to add .06 WAR between now and the end of the season to provide the Mariners exactly what they paid for.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Well if you go to lookout landing and say that youll need kevalar body armor, not a lawyer
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Pshh.
I’ll just show up with a GIRL.
all those stathead blogger LOSERS will just run back into their mom’s basements. BOOYAH!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Hey, I know what it is, man. I see females ALL the time.
On the internet…
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
sfw?
JK
"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be." -- Peter Gibbons
If we sign Beltre/Glaus/Kennedy/Iwamura...
What do you do about backup SS? Right now it works because we have Crosby and Nomar. They won’t be around next year.
If you add one of the above guys, you still need to add another player because none of them should be playing SS ever.
If you add another player you take a roster spot away from someone like Everidge or Patterson, who I would presonally like to be given one more shot at least.
one point in this fANpost
is that Iwamura could possibly play SS. I don’t know if this is true myself, since he hasn’t played their since coming to the US, but if he can then it definitely makes Aki a more attractive target.
Aki's fun to watch on a d2d level.
I’ll aver to that.
Al: We gotta form a government for the settlement.
Merrick: Who does?
Al: Us! You and me. Come to me in a vision! You stupid bastard
by Leopold Bloom on Sep 18, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Random banjo-hitting glove men are a dime a dozen
If you aren’t comfortable with Petit or Josh Horton, I’m sure Alex Cora will be available.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 18, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
True
But thats a roster spot I would rather give to Everidge or Patterson. You could go without a backup and just DL Pennington at the first sign of an injury, but knowing the A’s, they won’t DL him even if he can’t play and that means they need someone available on the bench on any given night.
And what if its midseason and Pennington is terrible and Petit is still Petit… we would have no other options and no leverage in a midseason trade.
Everidge is not deserving of a roster spot.
You could also try to play Iwamura at SS.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
call up Petit if/when Pennington is injured
"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be." -- Peter Gibbons
Also...
Haven’t we learned our lesson with aging, injured, overpriced veterans. I think Beltre and Glaus would likely have a negative value overall to the team.
You're all Doom Dr.
but I think you’re right for the most part although I’m intrigued by Iwamura. I thougt DFA made some good points about his value to the A’s.
With regards to Iwamura
I think he is a better option than Beltre, Glaus or Kennedy simply because he could possibly, maybe play SS in a pinch and those other guys probably can’t.
However, I’d rather have someone who has actually played SS in the last few years.
Also, I wonder if Iwamura will really only get 1 year offers. If he wants anything more than 1 year I don’t think its a good fit because I think we can get other servicable fill-ins and wait on our prospects. If none of that pans out we can look for a Free Agent next year when there might be more choices.
Even if it only takes 1 year at $5MM that would make him one of our highest priced players. Is he really so much better than other options to be worth that kind of money?
Finally, while of less importance, I would prefer we add a RH bat. Power would be ideal but not necessary.
Part of my reason for supporting Hairston Jr. is that he just kills lefties and when Wallace is ready, he would be a nice guy to put at SS, OF or DH against lefties. So he would still have value after Wallace joins the team. Iwamura would be largely redundent if he ever lost his 3B job. I actually think the two are about equal on talent, its just that Iwamura gets more consistent playing time. Hairston would have a lower average but more power.
And I just like the idea of having both Hairstons. Until one starts sucking and we cut bait and the other gets mad…
when one Hairston starts sucking
we might accidentally cut the good one by accident! (as if there will be a good one)
That would be the first position-player stat the A's would have led the league in in years
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Jack Cust to the rescue again
He led the league in BB last season and is on course for his 3rd straight year in strike outs!
I really can't get behind this Hairston idea
because of this myth that’s being perpetuated that Scott is a real MLB starting outfielder. We traded for him and plugged him into our lineup, NOT because he’s an amazing player, but because we had an outfield of craptastic nothings. He was, at best, a platoon slugger in the NL west. San Diego was maximizing his talent, and he’s a great 4th OF option. But not a starting OFer. So doing anything – ANYTHING – to perpetuate his regularity in our outfield and our lineup (like bringing in family) is something I’m completely against.
That said, Scott’s still our best option for LF in 2k10. Hopefully it won’t be the case much longer than that.
but I CAN get behind the idea
of bringing in a real player for 3rd/util/whatever.
I’m tired of having a team full of Pinocchios.
You might be right
I think that given what we gave up, the organization is going to give him a long leash as the every day LF. At worst he is an excellent platoon option with someone like Patterson… those two combined I think could be all-star caliber in LF.
Even if both Hairstons end up being platoon/utility guys, that will be because one of the young guys has replaced them, which would be a good thing. I don’t think either guy would be too upset about it so its not the end of the world if it doesn’t work out. And its cheap.
Iwamura is the next best option I have heard… or best option if you don’t like Jerry. I really don’t want to see us sign a big name free agent at 3rd… too messy with Chavey and Wallace around (or even Cardenas). Whoever we sign needs to know they aren’t our long term solution.
Maybe I am a glass half full guy, but I think Wallace will stick at third and will produce there by the end of 2010. At the very least, I think the team is committed to trying this out which may affect who they try to sign.
I don't understand why one would not want to obtain a long-term solution at third base
There is literally no position on the field at which obtaining a long-term solution would be more valuable to the Oakland franchise.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I would argue SS.
The A’s have 3 ML ready options at 3b over the next two years internally, where as Pennington and blah doesn’t inspire much confidence in me.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
3 ML ready options at 3B?
Huh? I get Cardenas, but…
Wallace barely counts, Eric Chavez definitely doesn’t count, and the third baseman at AA Midland is apparently someone named Alex Valdez.
I’m not following you here.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Our 3b depth
Chavez
Wallace
Cardenas
Donaldson
Then you start pushing it with
Barton
Chen
Everidge
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmmm...
Chavez hasn’t seen serious playing time in how many years? I honestly can’t remember anymore when he was last a fixture in the line-up.
I’ll give Wallace all the props in the world for his willingness to put in the work, but trying hard doesn’t guarantee success.
Cardenas.
Donaldson might have enough skill to serve as a utilityman who can catch but I’m not too sure about giving him consistent playing time at 3B. I haven’t heard anything about his defense at the hot corner.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Donaldson was good in college there
obviously his bat plays much better if he is a ok defensive C, than if he even is a good 3bman.
Not saying Chavez is a good bet but he is under contract and has the best upside of anyone
Im on the Wallace can’t play 3b bandwagon, but much like Chavez hes under contract and has a small but definite chance of sticking there.
At SS we have
Pennington, whose glove isn’t that good and bat will uber regress and…..
Petit?
black hole
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Cardenas can play shortstop, too
and I’ve seen no particular evidence that he would be a worse overall player at shortstop than at second or third.
Josh Horton hasn’t been great, but he does have a snazzy 1:1 BB/K ratio in AA ball and is still fairly young (doesn’t turn 24 until next February). He seems, at least, like a guy who can battle in his at-bats and use up some pitches at the bottom of a lineup, and he’s still managed to stick at shortstop into the upper minors.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Come on
If you are on the Wallace can’t play 3b bandwagon you cant seriously be suggesting that Cardenas would do fine at shortstop. With Wallace there is at least a few people that think he might be able to play there for a little bit. With Cardenas there really isn’t anybody who thinks that he could even play there for a little bit.
Josh Horton while not being young for his league OPSed a park neutralized 689 in AA. That doesn’t count.
All of A’s SS options are equivalent to the A’s “then you start pushing it” third base options. They don’t have either a lot of upside nor do they have a high probability of working.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Plus, the A's aren't even playing Cardenas at SS
at a time when SS is a position of need and Ellis, Chavez, and Wallace are all in the mix at 2B/3B for at least the next year or two.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If he winds up at 3B im going to be really pissed that we drafted him.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah but...
it’s not that difficult to see a Gordon Beckham scenario with Green. Something like…he could play SS with some mistakes, but is ready right away (April 2011?) if you have him play 3B, Pennington continues to be solid through next year..
It’s not that hard to envision, Green’s bat being ready quicker than his glove, and the decision being made that he’s the best option for 3B.
Yes it is
I see it being very unlikely that Pennington is solid to the point to push Green to third.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions
the scenario
it’s not about pushing Green to 3rd, it’s about the chance that he is already looking like he might not stick at short, and instead of taking another year in the minors to have him see if he might be able to cut it, they bring him up to 3rd for 2011, because the A’s are actually good in 2011, and this fills the biggest hole.
I guess what I am saying is that they would just put up with his defense
if his bat is ready and good enough to handle third base then you can put up with questionable SS defense given the increased positional adjustment. Considering that Pennington is extremely likely to be a below league average player, it is highly unlikely that the A’s would push Green to a position where they more than likely have a better answer than Pennington by the time he is ready.
Essentially Cliff Pennington is no Alexi Ramirez.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I think though,
it’s plausible that if the A’s are in a playoff race, and are trying to put the best team on the field, they could think Pennington and SS and Green at 3B is more valuable than any other combo they have.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
How so?
for that to happen Wallace/Cardenas/Donaldson have to all play third worse than Pennington plays SS
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Well it's not likely,
but it’s certainly plausible that 3 prospects don’t work out. What if the A’s have Wallace at first, Donaldson doesn’t work at third and Cardenas is injured? Something along those lines is what I’m thinking of.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
If Barton flames out
Wallace winds up at 1st, Doolittle & Carter wind up in the outfield or flame out, Donaldson flames out and Ellis falls off a cliff or gets hurt forcing Cardenas to second. Really, I could see it happening, but I’d A) be scared of that team. B) require the A’s to not go find outside help to fix the problem C) be thankful that “A” would likely cause “B” making this scenario even less likely.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Why does the "questionable SS defense and increased positional adjustment" argument not apply to Adrian Cardenas?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
its a matter of degrees
Green is suppose to be a much better defensive SS than Cardenas
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
They give degrees for that now?
Maybe fewer athletes will major in woodshop now.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wallace is the 3B solution
They are going to give him a shot there. That means likely no big name 3B between now and the start of next year unless they are only temporary fill ins…
Thats just the way it is. We can argue for a big free agent 3B but its very unlikely to happen so lets talk about what might actually happen… a temp 3B/backup SS… like Iwamura or Hairston.
Its not a matter of what the A’s should do, its what the A’s will do. personally I think those are the same thing. You seem to think the A’s should be going in a different direction than they are.
Moving Wallace away from 3B seriously screws up the entire system. Everything works out nicely if he stays there. I am just going to hope that works out… if it doesn’t, then everything changes and trades are going to be a huge factor and all bets are off.
I like Iwamura. My main question would be
given that he would likely want/require more than a one-year deal, could he wind up being an albatross as several infield candidates emerge — sure, they won’t all make it, but as a Wallace, or Cardenas, or Weeks gets to the big leagues, if they make it at all they’re likely to be guys you want to play.
I would certainly take him on a one-year deal because I don’t like the 2010 options. But by 2011, even when only one of Wallace or Cardenas is good enough to stick at 3B, I want them; same with Ellis now, Weeks later.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Trade him if one of the prospects forces the issue?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
If he's playing well someone would want him in a trade
besides I’d rather see the A’s have too many good players then the situation they have now.
BINGO
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Really I don't think it will be an issue
After this year you have an option on Ellis. Weeks has an injury history and had an OPS of less than 700 in 130 AA PAs. Cardeanas probably will stick at third but can play second and Wallace has a slim chance of doing so. Pennington might bomb out next year and force Aki to play SS. Aki can play the OF too.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought Ellis was under contract for 2011 with option for 2012
If the option year is 2011 then Iwamura does make more sense.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It was a 2+1 deal for 2009 and 2010 with a 2011 option.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Billy so wise.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It was really an excellent deal.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I like this Iwamura idea.
I’ve loved Beltre a lot during his time in Seattle, but I don’t want the A’s to sign him. I’m really worried that he’s already on the path toward steep decline offensively.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
It would be so "A's" if he started hitting 10 HRs / year for us
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With Beltre it all depends on the contract
and I think someone else will give him enough to make it a very difficult decision for the A’s to employ him. Also having played in the cavern that is Safeco im not sure Beltre would want to move to Oak. Love his defense though.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Beltre is only worth it on a one year deal (or one year + team option).
I don’t really care what he provides offensively as long as he can maintain his defense (which is feasible for the next year or two). I don’t think anyone would be willing to give him more than 2 years. But I also see Jack Z. making a big effort to resign him. The dude cares about defense.
"as long as he can maintain his defense"
So you’re looking for the 2007 version of Eric Chavez then?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
There have been many players from Japan that have transitioned well to MLB.
I don’t remember the A’s ever signing a player from Japan. I have always thought it odd that our West Coast team has not explored or signed players from Japan. Anybody know why that is?
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 18, 2009 10:38 PM PDT reply actions
Keichii Yabu
They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!
by muffinpryde on Sep 18, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh yeah....I have a feeling that was at a time I was not following the A's as closely as I am now.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber
by BERRYJO on Sep 18, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions
The transition problem was solved by the Rays playing him for two and a half years.
and supposedly the A’s were in on Fukdome as well as Yabu.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 18, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Clearly, she is a leftist.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
As far as what I think
Iwamura is an intriguing target because of his versatility; sounds like a version of Eric Patterson that is slightly slower, but doesn’t suck at baseball.
I am not in favor of Beltre and Glaus simply because they’ll get hurt. How can I know that, you say? Love will find a way, I say.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Before this year Beltre was rarely hurt
He missed 22 games in 4 years because of injury and never went on the DL..
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’d certainly be more comfortable with him than Glaus, who is a non-option in my opinion. But I don’t really want to sign a guy on the wrong side of thirty to a multi-year deal, either. Having him for a year while Wallace finishes developing would be OK, but I don’t view Beltre as a cog in Oakland’s future.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I like the idea of seeing what happens with Wallace
But if the Athletics did go the free agent route and couldn’t afford Figgins or Beltre, then why not pursue Melvin Mora instead? Mora could play SS if need be and he’s likely to be just as cheap after this brutal season if Baltimore doesn’t exercise its club option.
Truth is, that with Chavez eating up so much salary, the team should explore the players it currently has under control to see what happens rather than costlier FA question marks.
I recall the same thing being said of:
Mike Lowell in 2005. Baseball history is littered with comebacks — a few a which Beane has capitalized on. I’ll remember this post and double-check into the 2010 season. You might be correct but it’ll obviously be more interesting for me if you’re not.
by LowcountryJoe on Sep 19, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Mora is not good at baseball anymore
He is a bad fielder at third and was horrendously bad at SS in 2002 and hasn’t hit well in years.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 19, 2009 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't have a dog in this hunt
And I’d rather see the team address 3B with its internal options. However, in criticizing Mora you’re not being honest. Mora is an average fielder, not a bad one. No one would ask him to be the starter at SS — he’d just be able to fill in as need be; just as you claimed that Iwamura would at the position. And, LAST YEAR was a year when Mora hit well. Before that year, in 2005 (and the few years before that) he hit well.
by LowcountryJoe on Sep 20, 2009 4:52 AM PDT up reply actions
If Mora were 33 with his current profile,
it would be a far better bet. At his age, though, the odds are it’s the end of the line rather than a bump in the road.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mora has been a negative fielder 3 of the last 5 years
while being average this year with two scores of greater than -5 FRAA. Is he horrific no, but he is not good. Yes he had a ok year with the bat in 2008 and was only worth 2.5 WAR. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never hit for a .350 wOBA again and the projection systems certainly didn’t expect a repeat performance this year, and he has collapsed.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 20, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Okay, then, I'll accept the retraction(s) of your previous statements
And nowhere did I ever make the claim the Mora was a good fielder.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he never hit for a .350 wOBA again and the projection systems certainly didn’t expect a repeat performance this year, and he has collapsed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he rebounded and put together a better season than Iwamura. Only next year will tell.
by LowcountryJoe on Sep 21, 2009 3:15 AM PDT up reply actions
What part of usually costs his team runs is not bad?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 21, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
The 'usually' part, I'm guessing.
But I don’t know so I’m sure that you’ll again respond — trying to futher explain away previous exaggerations.
by LowcountryJoe on Sep 21, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Iwamura
doesn’t really make sense to me unless we don’t bring back Kennedy. Kennedy’s older and cheaper and worse with the glove, but they’re both lefty-hitting 3b/2b who are around average with the bat. Unless you assume Wallace is a 1b I don’t see why we would need Kennedy, Ellis, Wallace, and Iwamura. Sean Rodriguez makes more sense because 1) even if the Rays get rid of Iwamura, Rodriguez is still their 6th IFer, 2) Brignac can play all the IF positions 3) Rodriguez, unlike Iwamura, can play SS, and 4) he won’t have as many suitors as Iwamura.
There is no reason that we should bring Kennedy back
he is not average with the bat and plays bad defense.
If we are going for a Ray’s INF we should go after Brignac, who might be significantly better then Pennington at SS.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 21, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Adding Aki seems to complicate things
We already have this problem of what to do with the DHs/1Bs/RFs, why would we muddy the waters even more at a different position? Kennedy has been more than serviceable with the bat and at 3B/2B, and even if Pennington blows, we have Petit to backup. I’m not so down on him as you are, DFA — I just don’t think he’s really gotten a chance over an extended period of time to show whether he sucks or can be a good backup. Even if he does suck, adding Iwamura isn’t like the final piece of a winning team here. At best, he’s a solid defender and has good bat control.
Moreover, we need to figure out what talent is MLB ready. If Pennington sucks, bring up Petit. if he sucks, well, we can deal with that either further down the depth chart or another trade may bring us SS talent we don’t even know about yet. Iwamura can play, that’s for sure, but we need to know what of OUR guys can play.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Kennedy has not been more servicable with the bat
Over the last three years Kennedy has cost his team 24.1 runs with the bat Aki has added 6 while being hurt and having an abbreviated year this year.
The what of OUR guys line seems particularly faulty since if you sign Iwamura then he becomes one of our guys.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 21, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
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