Davis does it again, leading A's to another win deep in the heart of Texas
by Flashfire on Sep 15, 2009 8:49 PM PDT
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PrintThe Rajai Davis Show, which is currently the longest-running form of entertainment in Northern California, continued with a road performance tonight in Arlington. Runnin' Rajai led the way, reaching base all five times he stepped to the plate (FC, BB, 1B, 1B, 1B). He further filled up the stat sheet with a run, four RBI, and he went one for two on his stolen base attempts. As a direct result of his efforts the A's claimed a 6-1 win over the slumping Texas Rangers who, while they finally scored a run on a David Murphy homer, couldn't muster anything else against Edgar Gonzalez (4 IP), Craig Breslow (2), Brad Ziegler (2/3), Jerry Blevins (1/3), Michael Wuertz (1) and Andrew Bailey (1).
Davis is now batting a season-high .314 and has pushed his OPS past .800. What more can be said about the job he's done since becoming a regular? Cliff Pennington pitched in with two more hits including his first Major League triple, continuing his solid play as the A's have now won seven of their last nine to reach twelve games under .500 for the first time since August 17. Adam Kennedy and Daric Barton both had a hit and two walks.
Elvis Andrus had a 16-game hitting streak snapped and Brandon McCarthy only lasted two batters into the fourth, throwing 80 pitches. With both starters exiting before the end of the fifth, the game started to drag on with numerous pitching changes but it's easier to take when the A's win. Boston also won again and Texas has now lost three games in the wild card standings in the last three days.
The only real bad thing about tonight's game was 13 strikeouts by A's hitters, including Jack Cust's fourth Golden Sombrero of the season. That matches his total from last year and it was the tenth time of his career, all with the A's. Given his role on the team it may come as no surprise that when he strikes out that many times the A's struggle to win. They'd lost all eight times he did it in the past before winning their last two (7/11 in Tampa Bay being the first), which both happened to be games in which Davis played a big part in the victories - that time he replaced Ryan Sweeney and hit a tying homer to go with a single and stolen base. I think the point here is now the Oakland offense has become well-rounded enough (relatively speaking) that they can still put some runs on the board even when Cust has a game like this.
A quick recap of other organizational news:
Pacific Coast League Championship, Game 1: Memphis leads 1-0 in the top of the 8th with two out and two on after Chris Carter struck out looking. Travis Buck is about to pinch-hit and Memphis is making a pitching change.
Texas League Championship, Game 1: NW Arkansas had their way with Midland, winning 11-5 after the RockHounds scored four in the bottom of the 9th. They committed five errors, which makes it hard to win.
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Buck flies out to the wall in center for the third out
The Oakland A's: Pissing off fathers of disappointing baseball players who still managed to be better than their dads (charter club members: Tom Grieve & Ed Crosby)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I know it's the question every fan asks of losing teams that play well in September
but why couldn’t the A’s play like this in May or June?
Whatever happens in the off season I hope the A’s bring in players who can get from 1st to 3rd and score from second and do the little things that help you win.
I love athletic baseball and really shouldn’t a team called the Oakland Athletics play athletic baseball?
On to the 9th in Memphis
Cardenas, Recker and Petit due up. Still 1-0.
The Oakland A's: Pissing off fathers of disappointing baseball players who still managed to be better than their dads (charter club members: Tom Grieve & Ed Crosby)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I don't understand
Chris Carter hasn’t homered? He doesn’t do that every game?
Shouldn't the A's....
give Cust less ABs for the rest of the season? He’s been terrible since the All Star Break
18 RBI w/ 70 k’s. 18 RBI for a run-producer is unacceptable!
I’d rather see Nomar at this point.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 9:01 PM PDT reply actions
Nomar is no better
At least Cust could tweak his stance or fix whatever is ailing him, whether it’s mechanically or physically. Nomar isn’t going to be back anyway.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 15, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Cust has a .411 OBP since the all star break and he is second on this team behind Rajai in wRAA and wOBA for the season.
And here, you’re still using RBIs to evaluate how much a “run producer” someone is LOL.
It just goes to show how sometimes stats don't tell the whole story
His wRAA and wOBA may be second on the team but I’d bet they’re not very impressive compared to most of the better players on the other teams in the league. In fact, he’s out of the top 100 in both wRAA and wOBA (Davis looks like he’d be around 85 in wRAA and 60 in wOBA if he qualified).
The biggest reason Cust’s OBP has gone up in the second half is because his walk rate has increased again but he’s had a pretty rough last couple of weeks, which is freshest in everyone’s minds right now.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Great counterargument!
Except, um, your argument has nothing to do with my point since I’m not comparing Cust to players on other teams.
My issue is with these two statements from the OP:
He’s been terrible since the All Star Break
Which, as shown, is not true.
18 RBI w/ 70 k’s. 18 RBI for a run-producer is unacceptable!
Which, as shown, is not a good way to evaluate a “run producer”.
Because of how erroneous these assertions are, the OP’s premise, that the A’s shouldn’t give Cust anymore at bats, is quite erroneous as well considering how Cust is still better relative to a large portion of his own team.
The biggest reason Cust’s OBP has gone up in the second half is because his walk rate has increased again
Right. That’s a good thing and it suggests Cust is finally breaking out of his “swing at everything” mode from earlier in the season. Frankly, that’s a reason to continue to give him more at bats.
but he’s had a pretty rough last couple of weeks, which is freshest in everyone’s minds right now.
Yup. Which is why I’m glad WHYDFML fans aren’t running this team.
Well, I am comparing Cust to players on other teams
Just because he’s second on the A’s in those stats isn’t all that impressive. This stuff doesn’t exist in a vacuum, you know.
Cust HAS improved since the ASB in terms of getting on base but he was pretty awful (for him) before that. I know the RBI stat is something that is going to be affected by the opportunities a player has but driving in runs is part of what Cust is supposed to be able to do as their primary power hitter.
He’s got eight homers since the break. Of those, six were solo shots and two came with two on. That totals 12 RBI so over that period he’s only had 6 RBI that didn’t come as a result of home runs. Two were the result of sacrifice flies.
Further, 7 of the 18 RBI came in two games. That leaves the remaining 11 in 50 other games and the A’s have been scoring more since the Holliday and Cabrera trades so it’s not like he hasn’t had anyone on to drive in.
Sorry, but that’s just not good for anyone, let alone Cust.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I stopped reading this post when i realized 5/6 of it was going to be about RBIs
I wonder when people will realize that “run producing” is so much more than “driving a run in”.
I don't think I ever said run producing is only about driving runs in
But there’s no denying that Cust hasn’t driven runs in very often since the break at the level one would expect someone like him to.
But, since you seem determined to blow things off and focus only on the points you want to argue, carry on with someone else.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
sorry, these stats are confusing me… what’s the diff between WHYDRML and SAE (swings at everything) again? that one happened longer ago?
don't care if i ever get back.
oh, i know what the acronym means. i’m just wondering how you went from purely number-based reasoning, to a big ole generalization (see: the “everything” in SAE), to dissing those who generalize. because you did have me convinced, especially about RBI not being a good run-production number (also convincing me was rajai’s first run today)… but you shot yourself in the foot at the end.
don't care if i ever get back.
I was actually just making a joke...
The reason why I “generalized” is because actually listing the numbers would’ve taken quite a bit longer than just typing “swinging at everything”. If you want to see the numbers that confirms Cust’s “swinging at everythingness”, I’d be glad to show you.
For the season, Cust is swinging at 18% of pitches out of the zone (compared to his career average of 16.1%), 68.3% of pitches in the zone (career: 64.9%), and overall, he is swinging at 41.3% of pitches (career: 39.1%). As expected (and I guess hoped for, by Skaalan) he’s making more contact, 69.8% compared to career of 66.9% but obviously, his production hasn’t been as good as previous years (which just goes to show that more contact so does not equal better production). Of course, this “swinging at everythingness” (can I use this phrase now?) has negatively impacted his walk rate (15.9% this year, 18% career). Keep in mind that a 2+% difference is actually a BIG difference. And keep in mind that these numbers include his second half renaissance; his first half numbers were probably much worse.
Heh, I guess it didn’t take that much longer after all.
interesting. not “everything.” but interesting.
so, how do we account for higher contact and less production? more easy flies? more infield put-outs? both? are we saying that when he swings that extra 1.9% at balls and that extra 3.4% at strikes, that he draws less power or accuracy something?
and while we’re at it, and because i see you have the patience for it, thanks, the issue of zone here is complicated. i expect these numbers come from the ump’s called zone, not the actual zone (is that right?), so i wonder what his swing-at rate is for pitches on the black, where a protective swing saves you. i think that’s a weakness of his, knowing where the real zone is better than the ump, and thus not swinging for a dubiously called K. i mean, he’s right with his eye, but what’s the point of being right when you can’t stick around to see another pitch?
don't care if i ever get back.
by AV on Sep 16, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
are we saying that when he swings that extra 1.9% at balls and that extra 3.4% at strikes, that he draws less power or accuracy something?
In short yes. The biggest change that we can see is that he’s hitting a lot more fly balls, but he’s not hitting them as hard or as far as he use to. His fly ball percentage is at a 43.5% clip this year compared to a 38.6% career average. But his HR/FB percentage has decreased a staggering ~8% from 24.5% (career) to 16.8%.
the issue of zone here is complicated. i expect these numbers come from the ump’s called zone, not the actual zone (is that right?)
Nah, it’s the actual zone. As for swinging at more pitches “on the black”, yeah he’s doing more of that this year as you can see here. Problem is, it’s not doing anything but hurting overall production.
thanks!
reading the comments on that graph, it sounds like the problem boils down to sucking at making contact. that he was doing better when not swinging at a close strike three because if it was a ball he’d walk and if it wasn’t he’d K. now he swings at but misses that 3rd strike, so no walk at all, just K. in other words, the protective swing doesn’t protect.
sometimes when i see him batting, it doesn’t seem like he’s looking at the ball-bat at the moment of contact. the dotted line coming from his eyes seem to be a foot in front of the contact point. i wonder…
don't care if i ever get back.
by AV on Sep 17, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
River Cats will get 'em tomorrow....
or maybe we’ll see Carter and Wallace in the Green and Gold this weekend
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
A true Oakland skill if ever there was one.
Bring him up to the big team!
Celebrate the turning of the worm
Rotoworld notes, re: Davis
“He is batting an astounding .347 with 34 RBI, 35 runs scored and 26 stolen bases in 53 games since the All-Star break.”
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'm perplexed by Rajai's naysayers,
when they seem to assume that Rajai is bound to “revert to the poor performance of his previous 5 seasons.”
Isn’t there a middle ground? Can’t he fail to hit .314/.370/.430 with 40 SBs and excellent CF defense next year by regressing to a “new norm” of .280/.350/.420 with 33 SB and very good CF defense? And wouldn’t that be just ducky?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I was thinking more like "just peachy"
But yes, I’m hoping for the former, but the latter will be just fine. He’s a shown a real knack for bat control, and I don’t think he’ll forget that after this year. And his defense will get better the more he plays CF.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 15, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, this is not "provable" but
I get the sense that Jim Skaalan is the best hitting coach the A’s have had in their recent revolving door, and he may be finding the right tweaks to help Davis, Sweeney, Pennington et al get the most out of their skills. (We’ve heard Kennedy rave about him, we’ve heard about toe-tap timing devices that have helped hitters, and so on.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nobody ever says the hitting coach sucks.
You don’t throw guys under the bus like that.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
No, but they stay silent or damn with faint praise,
or don’t go out of their way to mention tools that have helped.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I figure that the guy that was partly responsible for developing
guys like Fielder, Braun, and Hardy on the Brewers can’t be all that bad.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 15, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions
That's because those two buffoons don't know their heads from their asses!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Except for the whole "let's swing at everything now!" mantra instilled into Cust at the beginning of the season.
And I get the sense Cust isn’t the only one Skaalan “tinkered” with. Guys like Suzuki and Ellis have experienced drops in their walk rates and OBPs while experiencing severe increases in their “swinging at everything including crap out of the zone” percentages.
I really have no reason to think any mandate or suggestion
about swinging more came from the hitting coach.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wait, what?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
if he's teaching aggressiveness
Then I’m all for it. I’ve listened to/watched too many times that a potentially big inning ended on a called third strike. I think, if there is something like “take hacks, not walks”, then maybe guys like Suzuki and Ellis overemphasized this originally and it took a bit to find a happy medium.
Either way, for Cust, I thought the goal was to cut down the strikeouts going into this season? If so, the “swing at everything now” approach doesn’t make sense. I like him the way he is… er, was… hitting 30+ HRs and striking out however much he wants.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Sep 15, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
So make up your mind.
Are things that happen together always causeated [sic] or only when you decide they are?
I think "let's swing at everything now" was more like "let's not swing for the fences with two strikes"
I haven’t seen or heard anything that ever suggested it was more than the original idea to reduce strikeouts by being more protective with two strikes. If that’s led to him swinging at more pitches earlier in the count, that seems to be more on him.
There’s also been evidence lately that he got a bit better when he used the toe tap and someone noted tonight it looks like he’s gone away from it again.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
And of course
that actually is an argument against Skaalan being a good hitting coach.
If Cust started making more contact and getting hits instead of strikeouts (while still maintaining his previous Custian production) then he would well on his way to being Pujolsean rather than Custian. A good hitting coach would have recognized Cust’s limitations in that regard. accepted the fact that a near 30 year old probably isn’t going to change the type of hitter he is anytime soon, and just left him be.
Heck, Skaalan might as well have tried to teach Rob Bowen how to hit 30 home runs.
I think Rob Bowen could'a hit 30 home runs...
but he’d’a batted about .174 in doing so!
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 16, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions
he's never hit below .280 in any stretch in the minors
and he was a career .305 hitter in the minor leagues. Despite his supposed history of failure, he has a career average of .278 in the majors with 88 SB, which is not that bad.
I certainly don’t think he’ll be able to keep up his current pace for a whole season, but I think expecting .290/.350/.420 with 35+ SB is totally reasonable.
Another thing worth noting:
For some reason, I had mistakenly recalled Raj having appreciable L/R splits but that couldn’t be further from the truth. He is remarkably even in this regard.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sure, he CAN do that...
The odds are better that he will hit .260/.320/.370 like he usually does.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I noticed that Rajai's OPS+
for his entire tenure with Oakland is now over 100. That means even if you count his crappy 2008 and his crappy first half of 2009, his awesome second half of 2009 is still enough to outbalance them both and make him slightly better than average.
It’s also worth noting that his total ABs with Oakland are more than twice his total ABs with all other major-league teams. The allegedly small sample of good-Rajai keeps getting larger, while the allegedly large counter-sample of bad-Rajai really wasn’t all that big to begin with.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
+1
I think if you look at his Minor League and look at him now, it increasingly looks like the bad sample is the abnormality.
I doubt if he’s going to be a 300 hitter, but I suspect something like 280, 340, 370 and 40SB (and only 10CS), marginally above average defense, is certainly in the relm of possibility.
I’d take that in a heart beat from our center fielder for next year.
I agree, and would upgrade the defense
to flat out “above average” as he plays more. His reads will only get better and his speed already offsets most of his mistakes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Agree on the Raj-Does-All
He has done more than they could have wished for and is clearly a better player than was previously thought. He should have earned one of the 3 starting outfield spots for 2010.
Question: Has Pennington done the same? I cannot imagine finding a vet SS will be high on Billys off-season shopping list. I say give Pennington a full season shot while our more highly touted minor league guys continue to develope.
Baja been here
I'm inclined to give the kids a good run out, perhaps 1 veteran pitcher
Carter, Pennington, Wallace, Rajai, Sweeney, Suzuki, Barton, Chavez, Ellis – at least it could be exciting
Hudson, Anderson, Braden, Cahill, 1 from all the others pitching
I could see that team doing 500, being entertaining, and an excellent platform for 2011. Expect Hudson, Chavez, Ellis, Suzuki and Davis all to be good club house influences.
Now if only we could stay healthy
Fun (but long) game!
I didn’t see many other A’s fans there, and there definitely weren’t many around me. But that was okay, especially because we won. The natives were pretty unhappy by the end (especially when Wilson (?) threw away that comebacker into CF — kinda pathetic). Pictures will be coming later this week, so you can all anticipate my lovely photo fanpost.
Moneypenny's stretch of decent production has me rethinking things
Maybe he should be given a real shot at starting SS for 2010.
If we give him a real shot at SS and Barton a real shot at 1B in 2010, where do we spend our FA money next season?
MATT HOLLIDAY!!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Sep 15, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
A Vet pitcher
I’d like to see a veteran starting pitcher added to the group. I love what Tomko has done but I don’t trust we’d see similar numbers over a full season. A John Garland type guy or Doug Davis or?
Other spots to spend our coin? 3B has to be on top of the list. Kennedy should be our super sub. We need power at the corner and Wallace is unlikely to be ready. Josh Fields could be had cheap from ChiSox. Others?
Baja been here
was at the game
first game since 2003 world series. A thrill to see Jack Cust …. strike out and Ziegler pitch!
Oh, but if I catch a line drive by a girl, that’s girl-on-girl action, the twiceness is eliminated, and it just counts once - gigglingone
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