Minor League Update: 9-15-2009 A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words... I didn't have that much to say
by grover on Sep 15, 2009 4:14 AM PDT
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First, the really cool news.
The Sacramento River Cats and the Midland RockHounds have both advanced to the next round of their respective play-offs. The River Cats are going for their 3rd consecutive PCL crown and what’s great about this season’s squad is that the current roster includes a fair number of high end prospects. Exposing them to the pressures of play-off baseball (even if it’s the minor leagues) can only help their development as ballplayers. The A’s have always believed that winning in the minors is important; as it helps the individual players unite as a team to strive towards a common goal.
Now if only we could get the organization to start winning in
And how well are these wonder prospects doing in a play-off environment? I’ll tell you after the jump… so come on over!
You know you want to.
AAA
Henry Rodriguez: 1.1 IP 0 H 4 BB 2 K 3 ER
Sam Demel: 1.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 3 K 0 ER
Chris Carter: 5-17 4 HR 2 BB 5 K
Adrian Cardenas: 7-15 2 D 3 BB 2 K
Brett Wallace: 5-17 1 T 2 HR 2 BB 1 K
AA
Graham Godfrey: 6.2 IP 1 H 3 BB 5 K 0 ER
Tyson Ross: 6.1 IP 4 H 2 BB 8 K 2 ER
Mickey Storey: 4.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 5 K 0 ER
Jemile Weeks: 4-13 1 HR 2 BB 2 K
Josh Donaldson: 3-16 1 D 2 HR 1 BB 5 K
Matt Spencer: 7-15 2 HR 2 BB 1 K
Corey Brown: 1-8 5 K
Shane Peterson: 3-15 1 D 1 BB 4 K
The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Chris Carter… he hits ball really far. Ross had maybe his best start in AA and Mickey Storey has been nothing short of sensational this year, pitching for
The A’s are sending/inviting 36 players to Instructs this fall. I’m not going to write up the whole list but the notable names include 2009 draftees Ian Krol, Paul (Haven’t given up a run in the first 25 games of my pro career) Smyth, Josh Leyland, Max Stassi, Conner Crumbliss, Grant Green, Stephen Parker and Myrio Richard. Third rounder Justin Marks might join halfway through if he gets over a groin injury. Other folks of interest include Ben Hornbeck, Brett Hunter, Fautino de los
The
There’s a rumor that the A’s might call up Brett Wallace and Chris Carter after
In a recent interview with Scout.com A’s Director of Player Development Keith Lieppman said that the A’s consider 2B to be the best place for Cardenas. He sees Carter at 1B long term and counts Wallace strictly as a 3B. It is what it is, but the A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks; if
And thank you for your support.
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I think Keith is being political there
and listing guys at the positions they currently are. Perhaps not “Political” but definitely conservative. I think you’ll see all four of these guys tried at different positions before its’ all said and done. Carter at 1B and RF, Cardenas at 2B and 3B, Wallace at 3B and 1B, and weeks at 2B and maybe CF/LF. Of course, Sweeney and Davis may have done enough to prove to the A’s that they’re the RF/CF of the future, and throw a complete monkey wrench in our plans. And of course, the position changes will all be based around whether Wallace can stay at 3B.
But I think he’ll get every shot to prove he can play 3B, with Carter at 1B, Cardenas at 2B, and Weeks in center. I wonder if we’ll see Carter or Cardenas tried in LF at all, while we’re at it. One wonders if Cust and Davis will be around still when all these kids are ready, or if those DH and CF positions will be open. The A’s seem to really like Sweeney, so I have to assume he’ll still be here. I also wonder if maybe the A’s will experiment with Weeks at SS.
But having too many people for the positions available is a good problem and one that typically figures itself out in the end.
Whoa, whoa
let’s not get carried away here. Regardless of where you stand on Sweeney v. Davis, neither of them are “of the future” players. It’s a matter of who should be a stopgap where, and for how long, until we can get some real outfielders.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
disagree completely
I am sick of players with the ‘top prospect’ hype hetting the lion’s share of the organizational attention. Rajai has shown himself to be the sort of threat the A’s have not had in over a decade- a Chone Figgins type threat, and is Sweeney continues to hit with authority through the next two weeks he should get every chance to be the every day RF in 2010. If we keep cherising players based on what baseball prospectus thinks we will be a losing team for another 5 years- let the guys who show it get the opportunity. The kids can sit back and learn.
oh and Cust can go find a softball team somewhere and Travis Buck can carry his gear.
by incarnate on Sep 15, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Davis
was as good at playing as many positions as Desmond DeChone Figgins, I might agree. But he is not. Davis is having a career year, it may be that he has turned a corner and is now going to be a great talent.
I actually would not compare the two. DdC Figgins has more value because of his versitility.
What is the alternative to Cust that is better? Why do you think Geren and Beane would let Travis carry anything?
I love when people make evaluations of a player using 200 at bats or so.
It’s like his previous 500 at bats worth of suck don’t even matter at all.
200 productive AB's in the show
is worth more than 1000 in the minors, slick. or perhaps you are making the laughable point that 500 ab’s of suck spread out over x number of seasons forever makes you a bad player? please clarify.
IF sweeney has progressed into more than a singles hitter than he should replace Cust in the fiels. if cust is not DHing he has no value in my opinion.
I am not saying these guys are all stars they just deserv the starting nods in 2010 and lets see if they can sustain….
What exactly are the instructs?
When are they? How long do they last? Do we play against other teams or just our own? Is it in Phoenix?
The Instructs are in Phoenix, using the A's ST facilities
They are, in fact, very much like Spring Training. There’s a lot of mentoring and one-on-one coaching. It’s a time when the coaching staff will have pitchers tinker with grips and adding/subtracting pitches while the hitters will work on their swings. They do play games, much like they do in minor league camp towards the end of ST but the emphasis is more on developing technique than winning. The program lasts (I think) between 4 and 6 weeks.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Is it fair to compare Chris Carter to Ryan Howard?
Of course they swing from different sides of the plate, but they’re both huge monsters that really know how to hit baseballs.
I believe that Carter’s stats have been better in the minors and he’s been younger at every level. if so… watch OUT!!!
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
No, it isn't.
Ryan Howard is a freak.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
If this is true...
The A’s have always believed that winning in the minors is important; as it helps the individual players unite as a team to strive towards a common goal.
…then doesn’t this contradict those who feel the A’s should tank the rest of the season in order to get a better draft pick?
After all, minors vs majors would/should be irrelevant, and that unity and common goal thing would apply regardless what level.
In 2008 I was watching a team that was rebuilding. In 2009 I feel like I'm watching a team that just sucks.
Obviously, based on recent history...
Oakland is the exception in regards to “winning” being a goal.
The monster at the end of this blog.
just about everything contradicts those that think Oakland should tank the season
I usually just take it as a joke when people say that.
as for Nomar...
Isn’t this what they did with Mike Sweeney last September? There’s been a precedent set with dick moves:
It would be a dick move but I could see the A’s releasing Nomar and placing Chris Denorfia on waivers to make room for Carter and Wallace. I’m not particularly attached to Garciaparra but firing the guy with 2 weeks left in the season would be a classless move.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions
Maybe if he didn't suck we wouldn't have to consider a "dick" move!
If Nomar stays on it also sets the precedent that Oakland will keep shitty players just to not be “dicks”.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I'm not arguing that Sweeney didn't deserve to be released....
all I’m saying is that BB will not be afraid to do it. IMO, Nomar should have been cut in May.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly. Since when does not being a dick trump building a better roster?
Nomar is chronically injured and doesn’t have a position and yet he gets to spend at least 11/12 of the season on the A’s roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s gave him the option of leaving in August, but maybe Nomar felt no one would pick him up for the stretch run, or was otherwise content to finish out his career in Oakland.
I would personally feel worse for Denorfia, who has not made millions of dollars and may never see a 40-man roster again.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
Precedent doesn't make it right
What can I say, I feel like doing That Which Is Right this morning. Ask me again after I’ve had some caffeine.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This
There is no reason to cut Nomar with a few weeks left and no need to bring up Wallace or Carter.
Mortensen in the AFL?
I thought he wasnt’ allowed to go because he’s played in the big leagues now?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
An AFLer can have limited big league time
That or Lieppman is mistaken.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I heard Mortensen on the radio pregame
He said he would be going to Arizona. So either Lieppman and Mortensen are both mistaken, or he is going to Arizona.
as I recall Jeff gRay pitched in the AFL last season...
after a cup-of-coffee with the A’s
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
So consensus is...
The A’s hierarchy knows what the Hell they’re talking about in this regard?
The monster at the end of this blog.
if the player doesn't have more than one year's service time in MLB as of August 31, he is eligible
although there is an exception for a Rule 5 player who spent the entire season on the 25 man roster.
Here is the link to the AFL website page on eligibility.
Mickey Storey
Whoa. I don’t think I ever read anything about him until now. 31st round of the 2008 June Draft, but some amazing stats. The guy’s been at 4 different levels in the A’s system and somehow strikes out 71 in a little over 51 innings, while only walking 8!
Will he get cursed by his 31st round signing or will the A’s take his performance seriously?
Sorry if I’ve totally repressed previous mentions of this guy but it sure seems like he came out of nowhere.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Mickey-Storey.shtml
Storey got hurt in college and he fell off the radar
Now, his best fastball maybe hits 90 and he’s generally a notch or two below that. His curve has been dynamite this year and guys who can change speeds, hit their spots and throw a breaking ball for strikes can carve up minor league hitters.
How well that combination will work against big league hitters remains to be seen. The A’s seem to be taking his performance seriously and there’s a good chance he starts next year in AAA although Lieppman did let it slip that the organization thinks Storey could go back to the rotation.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I just noticed that baseball-reference.com doesn't have any record of these postseason games
Chris Carter’s stat line still shows 4 HRs in AAA this year. Minorleaguesplits.com seems to include the playoff stats in its total statlines, however.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Which, to me, is stupid
The Oakland A's: Pissing off fathers of disappointing baseball players who still managed to be better than their dads (charter club members: Tom Grieve & Ed Crosby)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Unless you're Corey Brown's agent
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
If Carter/Wallace are promoted this year, I will cry myself to sleep everynight.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
Doesn't that start their arbitration clocks?
Plus the whole cutting someone with 2 weeks left part. And I really just don’t want to rush him at all, in any sense.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
Hmmm I've read so many different things lately.
But I believe you. I still don’t want them up though.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
Sure it does... they accrue service time like any other big-leaguer
Also means that they have to be optioned down next year, although in Carter’s case he would have to be put on the 40-man anyway to protect him from Rule 5.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I looked at Cots for a September exception and it does not exist
Which means that you are extending the amount of time that the A’s would need to keep Carter in the minors to start the season to retain the extra year of control.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
A player can only accrue 172 days/whatever of service time
If the River Cats go all the way (including the face-off vs. the IL champ) then neither Wallace or Carter would be coming to Oakland until the end of September. Any service time earned would be minimal, at best, and would not shorten the A’s ability to retain the players over a full 6 years.
And if you want to sit on the guys for a month or so in order to squeeze an extra season out of them then 2009 service time wouldn’t really slow you down.
The monster at the end of this blog.
for someone that makes the OMG we could lose the division by ONE GAME argument a fair amount this is illogiacl
as that could be ten games in 2010 that you don’t have Chris Carter mashing baseballs.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
News flash... we've already lost the 2009 season by more than 1 game!
And near as I can tell, Geren isn’t stupid enough to have Carter pitch the 9th inning night after night.
On to your larger point, however, it is harder for a single batter to have as direct an influence on the 9th inning as a closer does. Maybe if the batter in question was a pinch hitter but no one is suggesting Carter for that role.
Besides, my official stance is that the idea of keeping a guy in the minors to avoid starting his arbitration clock just so you can squeeze another year out of him prior to his FA eligibility is bullshit. If you’re going into a season with no pretensions of contention then yeah, it’s a plan that has some merit. But if you’re going into 2010 expecting to compete for the division and you don’t put your 25 best players on the roster then you are essentially forfeiting games early in the year for the sake of saving a couple bucks. That is short sighted and harmful to what you’re trying to accomplish, which is win as many games as possible.
The monster at the end of this blog.
From an Expected Value theory prospective it is almost always the correct decision to protect service time.
Especially when you have years like 2009.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Hang on
The A’s were thinking they had a shot at contending in 2009 and that changed the way they viewed the roster. They were a trendy pick to give the Angels a run for the division and yeah… that didn’t work out so well.
If you expect 2010 to be as bad as 2009 then yes, EV Theory has a say. But if you’re planning to go for it in 2010, if you’re trying to make the play-offs than sacrificing wins to better yourself in 2016 is a foolish self-inflicted handicap.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Wrong
With BPs projections I showed an approximately $2.5m expected loss in starting Cahill at the beginning of the season. Defending the roster choices made in the last year is not a winning proposition for you.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions
You're going to have to link your write up, 'cause I've got zero memory of it
You expected a $2.5 million loss where?
I’m not defending the roster choices of 2009, I’m stating what they were. The A’s gambled and lost. Spilt milk and all that.
The point I will defend is if the A’s feel like they’re in a position to contend in 2010 and they believe that Chris Carter is the best 1B/DH/RF/Whatever in their organization then they are slitting their own throats if they don’t start him on Opening Day. In a scenario where the ball club is trying to win as many games as possible in 2010, it would not be advisable for them to to send one of their perceived best hitters to the minors for 4-6 weeks in order to keep him around an extra season down the road.
If the A’s decide to focus on the near term in 2010 than Expected Value has to take a back seat to the more immediate need. Go ahead and call it short sighted, but sometimes that’s the decision you make.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Looking back it was $4.5m
and its derived from this fanpost’s comments
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 16, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I really don't know enough about this stuff
to make a cogent argument, but it sure seems counter intuitive to protect a “mythical” year six years in the future. If the A’s anticipate a competitive window in the next few seasons, why should they concern themselves with 2016? I would assume the window would have come and gone by then. My initial assumption would be that there are far to many variables in baseball to make this a legitimate strategy.
Why is this wrong? Just so I’m clear, this is a legitimate question.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Well that changes the expected value equation a bit
also a close division race changes the value a bit. But basically i found that for the A’s to be doing the economically sound thing by starting Cahill in the rotation. Even if Cahill pitched at Lincecum levels and his replacements were replacement level filler, the odds on whether the A’s went to the playoffs by 1.3 wins or less had to be greater than 11% of all possible outcomes, which was not the case. Without the odds that the A’s made the playoffs by less than 1.3 wins being greater than 11% there is an expected value loss in compromising Cahills last year of control for trying to compete this year.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 16, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
sept callups=service time an issue?
carter will have to be added to the 40 man roster this offseason anyways, rule 5 eligible. they can easily dump a 40 man player like reineke, munson, petit, cameron, marshall etc so thats not a big issue.
They probably still want to evaluate barton at 1b, so bringing in carter even for a brief sept callup may cut into his ABs.
Munson got called up, didn't he?
Would be kinda hard to dump him.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
That was fantastic.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
re: getting a taste of the playoffs
warning, this is going to be a ramble, but hopefully somebody feels like reading it and responding with some insight.
when the A’s kept flaming out in the first round and blew two 2-0 series leads, i couldn’t help but think that maybe it was their youth catching up to them. it might have just been a real easy thought that came up without having to think too much (a lazy thought), but it seemed like maybe they would have benefited from having some playoff grizzled veterans on the team.
so first: did they actually have some guys with playoff experience who just happened to get overshadowed by all the young studs, or was it really just a bunch of youngsters swashbuckling around?
and second: how do people feel about the usefulness of minor league playoff experience when you get to the majors? do you think that all of this (winning!!!) PCL playoff experience will actually help these guys at all in, say, the 2011 AL playoffs?
IMO...
experience in the MiLB playoffs is overrated. If the A’s thought it made that much of a difference they would have left Barton there in 2007 for the PCL championship. Pennington in 2008. Patterson in 2009
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Sep 15, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice job as always grover
Go Riverhounds!!!…I mean Go Rockcats!!!…you know what I mean…;-)
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
do not give up on eric patterson
limited AB’s, but in sept .294/.409/.821 OPS
he barely has accumulated 140+ ab’s with his stints last 2 seasons w/ A’s…i’d much rather see him get some consistent AB’s than a semi injured hairston out in LF for the next 2 weeks
I'll agree with that
Hairston is clearly not even close to 100% right now.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
And continuing to play someone with a pulled quad or hamstring can create longterm problems
It makes no sense for the A’s to play him at hall anymore.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
If not at hall, what about playing him at dining room?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
With Col. Mustard and the wrench?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Sep 15, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Roster spot
If they did decide to make late season roster moves, I’d be in favor of DFAing Casilla, rather than do that to a veteran like Nomar. Yes, Nomar isn’t of much worth to us at this point, but cutting him wouldn’t be the right move. I’m not opposed to Carter and / or Wallace getting a two week cup of coffee up here, even if they don’t see much game action. It’s not a long enough period that if they struggle, it will destroy their confidence.
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