You’ve got this amazing closer, a shut-down guy that’s one of the best in the major leagues at this moment, who could wind up being the next Papelbon or Rivera in terms of consistency.

If next year, Devine proves himself healthy, and the rest of the bullpen is as solid as it looks right now (sans Marshall and Casilla, of course), then I’d consider the move for 2011… if it looks like the A’s are a starter short at that point. But now…not a chance.

But also because losing in the ninth inning just hurts more than losing in the 5th.

It might be a statistical artifact, or it might have to do with his arsenal. He currently lacks a changeup, although one could argue that his cutter is equally effective as a weapon against lefties.

I think there’s one key point to be made here that no one is making right now, though. That is: the A’s are stupid deep in reliever prospects. I mean, they could trade half their bullpen away tomorrow and bring up a bunch of prospects and probably still be an above-average MLB bullpen. Henry Rodriguez can’t throw strikes consistently but no one can hit any of his pitches no matter where they are— he’d probably at least be a poor man’s Carlos Marmol. Sam Demel looks like he should match Jason Grimsley’s best years as a hard-throwing sinkerball reliever. The list goes on from there, and I’m not even including promising guys rehabbing from injury like Carignan or Dan Thomas.

If there’s any chance Bailey could be an above-average starter, I feel like the team has to try it. There’s so much more need in the rotation.

Here’s something I don’t think I’ve seen anyone mention:

Operation: Bailey to Starter would take at least a few years to be fully active, assuming that you don’t want him to blow out his arm by greatly increasing his workload from year-to-year.

Right now, he’s on pace to finish with 86 IP this year. Next year, I don’t think anyone reasonable would push that to more than 130 IP (2010). The year after that, maybe 175 IP (2011). In other words, it wouldn’t be until 2012 that you could reasonably expect to have him start without any IP restrictions. It’s something worth considering.

I’d think if any of our reliever should get promoted to starter, it would be someone like Wuertz. On average, middle relievers have 100 IP per season. Loosely translated, that’s about 13-15 starts. Middle reliever have the experience to pitch longer innings than the less taxing 3 outs closers usually get. Since Wuertz is not in out long term plan, I say we give him a tryout as starter. If he blows out his arm in the process, so be it. However, if he succeed as a starter, he stands to make millions more.

I would not be surprise if they consider this option. Last summer Bailey was the oldest and likely least experienced of their reliever prospects. Also Carignan, Lansford, Webb, Hrod were all at the AA level late into that 08 season. Looking back now that seemed like an impressive group of relievers. Add in Gray, Blevins, Demel, Kilby, Story, Meloan etc and there shoulnt be any shortage of relievers. WIth or without Bailey, a Devine (if healthy, Wuertz, Ziegler trio is better than most teams. A’s would be trading from a position of depth with bailey. Of course it also depends on the trade return.

Last year, in AA, per minorleaguesplits, Bailey’s numbers were:
As a starter:
15 GS, 72 2/3 innings pitched, 71 Hits, 12 Homeruns, 45 walks, 69 strikeouts, 43.8% groundball%, 15.8% HR/FB%, for a FIP of 5.53 and an ERA of 6.06 (ERA calculated by me, meaning it’s probably off by a bit).

As a reliever:
22 Games, 40 2/3 innings pitched, 30 hits, 1 Homerun, 11 Walks, 41 Strikeouts, 55.1% Groundball%, 3.1 HR/FB%, for an FIP of 2.46, and an ERA of .88 (Once again, ERA could be wrong.)

Obviously, all SSS caveats apply, and this is clearly not definitive evidence. But the difference is certainly astounding. The immense difference in groundball rates and HR/FB rates make me wonder if, after pitching for an extended time, Bailey either A) gets tired, and loses his sink, or B) has hitters adjust to him. His Flyball percent also dropped 7 percent when he converted into a reliever.

RHP Andrew Carignan: The reliever was deep in the organization’s thoughts when spring training began, but a right shoulder injury sabotaged his season. He didn’t require surgery, but spent the whole season rehabilitating. Carignan will begin throwing again Oct. 1 during instructional league, Lieppman said.

RHP Mickey Storey: Storey was "nowhere on the radar" when the season began, according to Lieppman, but this reliever is climbing rapidly through the system. He began the season as a closer with low Single-A Kane County but is now in Double-A. His combined season stats: A 1.22 ERA with 71 strikeouts and eight walks. Keep an eye on this guy.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/chinmusic/

wow, isringhausen went form a injury prone former top prospect turned reliever. almost 300 career saves 10 yrs later. 7 seasons 30+ saves, 2001- 2007 statistically one of the elite closers in baseball
. From what i remember didnt A’s offer him more money to stay, but we wanted to pitch closer to home.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/isrinja01.shtml

And you want to move him? with a glut of young starters? Yes, they had growing pains (worse for Outman and Braden, I suppose)— but they are the future— let them pitch. It is reasonable to assume that MAC plus Gio gets better next year, and maybe a lot better. Keep Bailey where he is.

…does it really matter?

Additionally, Andrew Bailey has developed a cutter this year. This is the most logical reason for Bailey’s dramatic and unexpected success. The cutter is 5 MPH slower than his fast ball and moves about three more inches horizontally and three more inches vertically according to his Pitch Fx data (a note, I am not nearly as well versed in Pitch Fx data as I should be so if who knows it better than I can double check this that would rock.) He throws it more than any pitch besides his fastball, at a 30% clip. Not only does he throw it often but it has worked registering 1.37 RAA per 100 pitches, and 2.8 RAA overall. In one season Bailey has developed the 8th best cutter among relievers in all of baseball.

The addition of the cutter and the move to the bullpen has had the effect of playing up Bailey’s secondary pitches. The combination of adding a strong secondary pitch plus eliminating the need to face a batter three times a game allows for less cat an mouse trying to set up batters for the next at bat, and a more direct approach that requires less change ups and sliders. This allows Bailey to essentially shelve a bad change up that gets hit to the tune of – 4.8 RAA/100 pitches (SSS) and his slider. Additionally his curveball goes from his number two pitch that needed to heavily be relied upon, to a gotcha pitch that is shown only 15% of the time and when expecting mid 90s heat or a hard darting cutter, has been supremely effective to the tune of 4.3 RAA this year.

The question I think comes down to does the cutter work over three times through the rotation as a viable off speed pitch that keeps the change up from being thrown. If so put him in the rotation. If not keep him in the pen. Or trade him to Atlanta for Escobar.

Bailey is a fine reliever, why mess around with him. Keep him in the pen.

Two years ago, you’re in a job that you’re not really good at; in fact, your entire career could be on the line. Besides, even though you enjoy the work as a whole, you’re not really comfortable doing what you’re doing, you don’t have the right temperament for it.

So your boss says, hey, Andy, let’s try something new. So you do, and you’re a raving success. Within two years, you’re among the best four or five people doing it, in the entire country. Not only that, but you love what you’re doing. You’re the right person for the right job. Hell, you might even win a national award for your work: you’re certainly a finalist.

And then your boss comes to you and says, “Hey kid. Good job. But we don’t want you doing that any more. We want you to go back to the job that you didn’t like so much, that you said you didn’t have the right temperament for. And we know you won’t be all that good at it. We don’t expect you to be. We’ll be okay if you’re mediocre.”

Now put yourself in Andrew Bailey’s position.