Will the Real A's Offense Please Stand Up??
by jasonthea on Sep 11, 2009 8:21 PM PDT
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for 90 games, they scored barely 4 runs a game-- one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. Since then-- over the last 50-- they have scored 5.3 runs a game, one of the best totals in the AL. Giambi was weeded out, but Holliday hasn't been here for nearly all of those 50 games, either. Obviously Davis, Sweeney and Ellis have all picked up the pace considerably, as has Cust. And several of this year's contributors-- Kennedy, Garciaparra, Crosby and Barton come first to mind-- will probably not be in Green and Gold next year.
Is it a regression to the mean? Is it as simple as a bunch of players fighting for jobs and/or contracts?
I don't know, but this I do know. If by adding some combination of Wallace, Carter and Cardenas, next year's squad can match the past 50 games, well then that's 850 runs for the season. If the young starters can jell in what will be for most their second full season in the bigs, then the A's will probably allow no more than 750 runs and more like 700 and contention may not be such a pipe dream after all.
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Doesn't this happen every season?
A’s offense looks cover-your-eyes horrible for the first 4 months, then manages to limp to merely “below average” by the end of the season?
I think it’s related to the climate. Keep in mind that September is often the warmest month in the Bay Area.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Climate? Huh?
It’s been 50 games, not 10— some July, some September, all of August. So the September theory is bogus. And as for road games in hot weather, well every team plays them in the late summer, and as I said the A’s are outscoring most of the league in this period. I don’t think this happens every season. The A’s teams early this decade played their best ball—- hitting and pitching— over the entire second half.
I will certainly allow for the “regression to the mean” possibility, and that the truth in-between is still a pretty mediocre offense. However— as Stephen A Smith would say— when you’re dealing with young or unproven talent there is always the possibility that at least a few of these guys (Sweeney, Davis— who knows who next year?) have jumped to a new level. Fact is that this is now a trend lasting about one-third of a season. If they finish strong the remaining three weeks I do think that bodes at least somewhat well for next year.
Last Two Seasons
A’s were 14th (2008) and 9th (2007) in runs scored over the 2nd half. They have been in upper echelon only twice from 2002-2008 (they were a huge first in 2001 in the 2nd half) in the 2nd half, climate or no climate effect.
This year they are 3rd— trailing only the Yankees and Angels.
The goal isn't to compare the A's to other teams, it's to compare the A's to themselves
In any event, however, I’ll always vote for “lucky streak” over improvement as an explanation for any small sample of good play. I just don’t believe 50 games can tell you anything meaningful about a player.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
well 50 games vs 90
is what it is. The 90 is generally, but not always the truer indicator. This may be one of the not alwayses.
We'd also need to look at the quality of the pitchers/defenses they've faced, as well
Teams naturally struggle against good pitchers and good defenses, and hit well against bad ones. An unbalanced distribution of those opponents could exaggerate a random cold/hot pattern.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
show me
is there a difference between home / road splits for the A’s?
Or is it a factor of all teams score more everywhere as the year goes on due to some other factor (pitchers getting more tired, etc.)
Well, again
they are 3rd in the AL in runs scored over the past 50 games. So it’s not all teams scoring more.
I wonder what Cliff Pennington's stats will look like
next year as the A’s starting SS?
"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby
My guess
.255/.340/.395 with 25SB and excellent defense. I can live with that.
by faninphilly on Sep 12, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
slg won't be that high
I’d say .250/.330/.345
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Optimistic
I’ll go much much higher and say .275 BA and 16 HRs.
by batterbatter on Sep 12, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
16! Very optimistic.
He has 18 total in about 5 professional seasons.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
I'm a dreamer
but if my prediction come true next year, I’m gonna look like a genius!
by batterbatter on Sep 12, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Very true.
I hope your prediction is right!
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
In a tiny sample size.
I’m guessing his 1 in every 100 or so at bats in the minors is more likely.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
I'd bet
.238/.315/.345, 20-30 SB, and excellent defense.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
That's around what I was thinking.
Possibly less SB’s though, due to the low OBP.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
Lots of FCs will keep his SBs up.
Fielder’s Choice for the win!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
2010 A's offense
Patterson: draws walk
Pennington: grounds into fielder’s choice, beats throw to first, steals second
Sweeney: singles to left field
…
PROFIT!
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That's when we sign Figgins during the off season.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
That happens after Sweeney singles
and greets the A’s’ new 1st-base coach, OAH.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Man...
I really hope Pennington is not our starting SS next year. I mean, I know the bar for shortstop bats is pretty low, but he’s not exactly Adam Everett out there. If we could get Jed Lowrie or Sean Rodriguez for a reasonable price, that wouldn’t be such a bad idea.
Good timing on this post
The Oakland A's: Pissing off fathers of disappointing baseball players who still managed to be better than their dads (charter club members: Tom Grieve & Ed Crosby)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Ok, and your point is....
As they have scored 13 runs in 3 games since this post, winning 2. Gee I’m sorry they’ve only scored 4.3 runs a game in the last 3 compared to 5.3 the 50 before.
Anyway you slice it, they’ve been clearly better for two months now. Davis and Sweeney being the lead examples. And there are some big bats looming in AAA.
The point is I wasn't being serious
The Oakland A's: Pissing off fathers of disappointing baseball players who still managed to be better than their dads (charter club members: Tom Grieve & Ed Crosby)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It has.
It runs a whole lot more than the old offense did, which is the primary difference. Maybe Rickey told them “Rickey didn’t just walk to Cooperstown, he RAN to Cooperstown.”
If we had anybody at the corners who could hit the ball out of the park more than once a month, this would be a pretty good team.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
and we may have two guys
with some power in Carter and Wallace next year, as well as Cardenas. i think just before the epic Minnesota comeback may wind up as the low water mark of the A’s offense for, oh how about, the next 7 years?
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