FanPost

GOG 2009 #36

The A's showed a lot of life in the last series, taking three out of four and dropping the Rangers to 4.5 games back in the AL West, or 2 games back in the wild card race. This series will not be nearly as relevant to the postseason. The Royals had a strong start to the season, boosted by an otherworldy demonstration of pitching from Zach Greinke, and vindicating all the bandwagoneers (myself included) who were predicting them to be a much improved team. Since sometime near the end of May, however, they have returned to their old losing ways, and then some. Over the last couple of months, the Royals have been even worse than the Nationals.

As everyone has been noting lately, Oakland has lately been playing a much more aggressive style of baseball than we have seen since maybe the early nineties. The Kansas City defence is among the worst in baseball (see question 10). If the A's can take advantage of mistakes, take the extra base on line drives to the gap, and beat out slow ground balls, then we could see them scoring a lot of runs, even if they struggle to make contact with Greinke's slider of doom.

Links

GOG #36 :: The Throne Room Is A Basement (31 points possible)

Three game series @ Kansas City Royals -- August 7-9

UPDATE -- answers, courtesy of doctorK, are added below in bold

  1. Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
  2. The A's have to face Zach Greinke this time. Predict IP/ER/K for the best pitcher in the AL [2 points each] 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
  3. Brian Bannister, already known for his strong grasp of sabremetrics, has been studying up on PitchFx, judging from an interview he did with Tom Tango (a good summary of the interview is here). This year Bannister has been making an effort to increase his ground ball rate, by using his fastball less, throwing a ton of cutters, and switching his grip on the changeup to give it more sink. His groundball/flyball ratio jumped from around 1 to 1.5 and he is having his best year so far. How many groundball outs does Bannister record against the A's? [3 points] 6 groundball outs for Bannister
  4. Does Giambi play in the series? Do the A's add any non-Giambi players to their roster during the series? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] Giambi does not play, but the A's do add Mortensen and Cunningham (and maybe Jay Marshall, now that Mortensen has been sent back down?)
  5. With two HR in the series against Texas, Kurt Suzuki is up to 8 HR on the season, surpassing his total for 2008. He passed his career high for doubles two weeks ago in the series at New York. This all adds up to a slugging percentage that is 39 points higher than last year, despite a nearly identical batting average. Unfortunately, this has been accompanied by a drop in his walk rate and OBP. Predict Suzuki's AB/BB/XBH for the series [2 points each] 12 AB, 0 BB, 2 XBH
  6. Former Royals shortstop Tona Pena Jr was so awful with the bat that they traded for Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners and are converting Pena into a pitcher. Unfortunately, Betancourt has not helped much. His batting line since coming to Kansas City is .159/.181/.290 (good for an OPS+ of 23!). He has 5 extra-base hits and 2 walks in 74 plate appearances. Will Yuni manage to earn a free pass off of A's pitchers this series? [+1 point if right, -1 if wrong] Yuni does not draw a walk. Easiest question ever (right, Angry Sean?)
  7. Which Oakland reliever logs the most innings in the series? [3 points] the answer is Edgar Gonzalez with 3.1 IP in relief of Mortensen, but no one picked the long man
  8. Over his last three starts, Gio Gonzalez is striking hitters out at a rate of 10.1 K/9. Impressively, he has done this against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers. How many strikeouts does Gio pick up against the Royals decidedly less intimidating lineup? [3 points] Gio's start got bumped back, so for the second GOG in a row I have a question about a pitcher who didn't pitch
  9. Moneyball draftee Mark Teahen has been having a solid year at the plate and has contributed on defense at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and right field. How many defensive positions does he play in this series? [3 points] Teahen played two positions -- RF and 1B
  10. According to UZR, the Royals suffer from the second worst defence in baseball (only the Red Sox are worse). The Athletics have been slightly above average and the difference between the Oakland and Kansas City defences has been nearly 40 runs so far this season! In this series, which team converts ball in play into outs at a higher rate? (Calculated as (total outs made - K - CS) / (PA - HR - K - BB)) [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] doctorK tells me that the Royals won in this category, .718 to .642. Don't doubt the man, he'ss a physicist.

Game one starts up at 5:10 pacific, so make sure you get your entries in on time.

Results

Here is another high scoring GOG, like GOG #34, but with a crazy bi-modal distribution that points out the fallacy of the following gaussian statistics (ok, mode is not a gaussian statistic).

Overall scoring statistics

  • mean = 10.3333 points
  • standard deviation = 3.46410 points
  • mode = 8 or 15 points
Gog2009_36_medium

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Wow, a four way tie for first place! Congratulations to zaniac75, GoAs, micdog2001, and A'sfaninNC.

The race for best total score is tightening up again, with zaniac75 close behind nevermoor. Also, GoAs and micdog2001 are both new members of the 200 points club.

name place (this GOG) score (this GOG) # of GOGs place (all GOG) score (all GOG) place (by AVG) score by AVG
zaniac75 1 15 34 2 274 5 0.243
GoAs 15 29 8 206 13 0.211
micdog2001 15 30 7 211 12 0.211
A'sfaninNC 15 29 4 228 6 0.239
Angry Sean 5 14 32 16 163 31 0.153
Blicks 14 18 24 114 20 0.190
JLeverenz 7 12 24 13 169 11 0.215
train80 8 10 32 9 190 24 0.180
colin 9 9 35 5 226 19 0.196
nevermoor 9 34 1 278 4 0.248
swatnick 11 8 22 10 188 1 0.259
streetfan 8 34 14 167 32 0.148
muffinpryde 8 32 12 176 27 0.166
Rated-R Superstar 8 30 6 212 10 0.217
doctorK 15 7 36 11 186 30 0.156
adragon 7 25 18 132 28 0.162
harenshair 7 15 19 126 3 0.249
oblique 18 5 29 14 167 25 0.173
Mantecan As Fan DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.024
SoCal As Fan DNP -- 14 30 93 18 0.200
NateHST DNP -- 15 25 112 8 0.225
DCinWC DNP -- 16 31 84 29 0.158
mikeA DNP -- 31 3 232 7 0.227
ZeroIndulgence DNP -- 19 23 115 23 0.183
gigglingone DNP -- 16 22 117 9 0.225
Kimberly DNP -- 20 21 125 21 0.190
vegAN ryAN DNP -- 4 51 27 N/E 0.185
diehardoaklandfan22 DNP -- 16 27 106 15 0.202
Walton711 DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.214
travdog6 DNP -- 2 95 1 N/E 0.013
Boonee DNP -- 3 56 19 N/E 0.174
RayJEdd DNP -- 12 28 104 2 0.252
A'sBowlingLeague DNP -- 2 56 19 N/E 0.244
elephantbaseball DNP -- 19 19 126 17 0.200
brian.only DNP -- 4 69 14 N/E 0.096
robertmelvin DNP -- 6 42 41 N/E 0.188
OaktownPower DNP -- 16 26 110 16 0.201
roscoe DNP -- 29 17 161 26 0.168
Flashfire DNP -- 1 87 6 N/E 0.143
designatedforassignment DNP -- 3 67 16 N/E 0.145
tresselfan DNP -- 4 84 7 N/E 0.046
KMoAsFan DNP -- 4 55 20 N/E 0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.238
GreenOctober69 DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.190
SLOtown DNP -- 10 36 60 N/E 0.174
baseballnut020 DNP -- 9 40 51 N/E 0.173
MaineAthletic DNP -- 12 32 73 22 0.187
j_rich36 DNP -- 1 84 7 N/E 0.167
scutaroknowstheway DNP -- 1 92 3 N/E 0.071
FormerHuntsvilleStar DNP -- 9 33 71 N/E 0.247
jay_sensei DNP -- 6 41 44 N/E 0.227
easyraider DNP -- 13 29 94 14 0.209
Athletix Man DNP -- 9 37 59 N/E 0.199
Athletics fan and runner DNP -- 6 51 27 N/E 0.133
Holy Toledo! DNP -- 1 92 3 N/E 0.083
Nico DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF DNP -- 1 99 -1 N/E -0.028
JLaff DNP -- 1 91 4 N/E 0.111
WaddellCanseco DNP -- 5 50 28 N/E 0.164
crb29 DNP -- 11 34 70 N/E 0.196
eastcoasta'sfan DNP -- 4 54 23 N/E 0.161
Oaktownflav DNP -- 3 62 17 N/E 0.156
Future Ed DNP -- 6 42 41 N/E 0.197
JediLeroy DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.222
Dalesman DNP -- 2 87 6 N/E 0.083
nateh37 DNP -- 7 44 39 N/E 0.174
anomaly_kat DNP -- 3 59 18 N/E 0.173
sprtsnwyn DNP -- 2 62 17 N/E 0.250
VORP is too nerdy DNP -- 4 46 32 N/E 0.234
asyouwish33 DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.250
jeffro DNP -- 4 59 18 N/E 0.150
Cutthemullet DNP -- 3 53 24 N/E 0.238
stabbin_mcadams DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.312
jasonthea DNP -- 4 48 30 N/E 0.219
fruitattack DNP -- 11 47 31 N/E 0.086
Helloooo 1st DNP -- 6 45 34 N/E 0.165
King Richard DNP -- 2 71 13 N/E 0.203
jpl DNP -- 8 39 55 N/E 0.222
baseballgirl DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.286
whiteshoes40 DNP -- 18 35 68 33 0.116
walkoff baltimore chop DNP -- 1 84 7 N/E 0.200
spiffyjwc DNP -- 2 71 13 N/E 0.194
samljm DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.265
pam5981 DNP -- 7 37 59 N/E 0.276
Gaijin_Suketto DNP -- 1 69 14 N/E 0.424
tosk DNP -- 5 49 29 N/E 0.179
mikev DNP -- 1 62 17 N/E 0.515
stranahanahan DNP -- 3 68 15 N/E 0.152
Leopold Bloom DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.029
ElQuesoCapitan DNP -- 3 59 18 N/E 0.194
Trainman DNP -- 2 92 3 N/E 0.049
OptimistPrime DNP -- 1 89 5 N/E 0.179
dtownmbrown DNP -- 3 62 17 N/E 0.167
chillicothe20 DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.265
ChadGod DNP -- 1 71 13 N/E 0.382
SamYam DNP -- 3 56 19 N/E 0.186
JLopez DNP -- 3 89 5 N/E 0.051
robbo650 DNP -- 4 62 17 N/E 0.132
Steve in Napa DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.032
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