Chris Carter
by Since1972 on Aug 7, 2009 4:01 AM PDT
Email
Print
I know many people on AN have been following Chris Carter this summer as he has been destroying Texas League pitching, but I wonder how many people know just how hot he's been over the last month or so. If he can pick up a clutch of rbi in August Carter has a good shot at winning the league's Triple Crown.
Over the last ten days, Carter has hit .622 with 3 hr and 12 rbi. His OPS since June has been hovering around 1.000. Perhaps even better, while he has been killing lefties all season (.365), he has been almost as good against rights, batting .323. Last year he hit a ton of home runs in Stockton, but the plate discipline this year I think is a truer indication of his chances of being a star at the major league level.
If he has a strong spring next year, he might be the starting first baseman if not in April, then in June.
This poses some (good) problems for the A's. On paper Carter looks better than any of the current first basemen ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. And he may make it unlikely that Wallace will ever be the starting first baseman for Oakland. If he pans out, Oakland may finally have the slugger they've been missing from their lineup for so long.
44 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Has anyone heard reports on Carter's defense this season?
Does he have a chance to be an average defensive 1b?
He's turning himself into one of the most potent offensive threats in the minors
And that’s not just for his bat – the kid is 12-16 on the basepaths thus far. Some were content with 2008’s prodigious power and last year’s .260 clip. Who really saw him hitting .325+ this season? Challenging for a Texas League triple crown this late in the summer is nothing to shake a stick at.
However, Carter has the luxery of owning athleticism that can make him at least passable at a position other than 1B, something Brett Wallace can’t say. For that reason, I’d like to leave 1B open for Wallace. Carter can hopefully play a capable RF by 2012, or whenever Wallace is forced across the diamond to 1B.
Counter-clockwise from 2B, I’d like to see:
Cardenas: 2B—>3B
Wallace: 3B—→1B
Carter: 1B—→RF
Doolittle (or Cunningham): RF—→LF
This, of course, is assuming there’s no DH set in stone. If there’s no DH, I’d guess Wallace/Carter likely fill that spot.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
My question -- because I want to agree -- is:
If the A’s initially sported an infield of Wallace at 3B, Cardenas at 2B, and Carter at 1B, how sucky would it be? Seems like you’d have three guys who are being stretched defensively, all in the same infield. Of course it might be good enough offensively that you could play a Jack Wilson or Cliff Pennington type at SS, which would help some.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why would Cardenas be streched defensively at 2B?
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Maybe I'm mistaken, but I thought his range wasn't supposed to be the best
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Doolittle's got a huge arm.
Cunningham too, actually. No way you’d have them in left and Carter in right.
I’m all for Cardenas at 3rd, Wallace at 1st though. I thought Carter was more a DH than LF though.
Carter has a great arm, too.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I would absolutely NOT put Carter at first base in Oakland starting next year no matter what kind of spring he has
That would be a jump from Double-A straight to the Majors and it would fly in the face of everything the A’s have done with him so far in not moving him up the organizational ladder too quickly. It looks like they’re going to let him finish the year in Midland and, hopefully, he’ll get at LEAST half a season in Sacramento before any thoughts of being called up. Let him do well there and maintain it, then we can talk about playing in Oakland from there.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Double-A versus Triple-A
Again, this is a problem of what Triple A time is really worth. I think it has been clear for a long while that the A’s regard their Double-A prospects as the meat of their farm system and that they are willing to promote the best players there directly to the big leagues or after just a cup of coffee in Sacramento.
I was just reading an essay, but I’ll be damned if I can remember where, on the relative age of players at the Triple A level (Oakland has the second youngest, incidentally, a fact that goes against my argument here a bit), which basically argues that Triple A has in recent years become an extended roster for the main club, in which four or five guys, usually relievers and several almost ready everyday players, are on hand to replace injured players and as fill-ins for the pitching staff. Double A is where the real talent is. So what are the benefits of playing against a lot of perennial AAAA players, who will never play long in the big leagues, as opposed to playing against younger, yet more talented AA players?
There might be some way to measure this, but I’m not sure what the metric would be. But given what I’ve seen in recent years, I would have no problem with Carter going to the big club if he had a hot spring.
chronic
they do say that the biggest jump is A+ to AA,
but I still think the best competition is in AAA. they may be less talented, but they’re still better—that’s why you can stick them on the big club no problem.
That's another part of what's so impressive about Carter's 2009
He’s not supposed to make the jump from A+ to AA and RAISE his average some 75 points.
I realize he’s had well over 400 at-bats and it still hitting .333, but what strikes me as lucky is the fact he’s seen such a raise in his average without a huge, marked shift in his K rate, striking out every 3.24 at-bats in 2008 (when he hit .259) and every 4.19 this season (.333). In other words, he’s not striking out a TON less, but he’s hitting a ton more.
What gives? Am I missing something? Has his AB/K really dropped enought to warrant this kind of jump? Anyone got a BABIP?
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Aug 7, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
His park and luck neutral BA was about .290 last year so its not crazy but definite improvement
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 7, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't worry I'm fine if he's only hitting .298 :)
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 7, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually that is a huge marked shift in K rate...
It’s about 40 extra balls in play over a season. That’s an extra 13 (average) to 16 (by Carter’s BABIP) hits over a season. That’s 30 points of average right there.
by AgitationStation on Aug 7, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I can see the point to that but I still think it would do a player well to at least start in Triple-A after a full season in Double-A
I just don’t see that there’s any urgent, pressing need for Chris Carter to be our opening day first baseman (or DH) in 2010. I’m extremely happy with the progress he’s shown in Double-A and no matter what the overall talent level in Triple-A, it ought to be better than what’s in Double-A. I’m not going to sit here and say everyone in Triple-A is the best of the best in the minors but it’s still a place where more people are one step away from the majors.
What Carter’s done in the Texas League is impressive but carrying it over to the Pacific Coast League, if only for half a season (to throw it out there) wouldn’t hurt his progression at all. As much as I sometimes hate going to this as an excuse, it could also help with his service time clock.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Plus, there's the whole Super 2 thing...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I suspect what the A's should do, and will do, are the same:
Let Carter finish this year in AA, start him in AAA next year but will call him up mid-season if he’s ready (or April, 2011 if he isn’t).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What it comes down to
Players at AA may have higher ceilings (maybe), but AAA players are still better. Why would teams keep worse players handy for promotion to the majors and let better players languish at a lower level? That makes no sense.
Maybe the world is ending
I just can’t stop agreeing with you.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Also if he can hit like this the extra year of control would be really valuable.
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 7, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
agreed
As great a year as he’s having, he still has work to do. Spending some time in AAA won’t hurt him or the big club, and moving him up faster won’t help any.
Disagree
I don’t think any of these objections have any real footing to stand on. It hurts the big club if Carter is capable of being the starting first baseman, but he’s at triple A and why moving up faster won’t help is pretty much just an assertion of faith. And I do see an urgent, pressing need to have a big bat in the lineup, unless you really, really like the A’s as they are currently constituted.
chronic
OF course they need a big bat
But is Carter the difference between contending and not contending next year? I seriously doubt it.
Really, what's the urgency?
We’re not looking at a team that’s contending for anything next year so it’s fine to start Carter out in Sacramento and bring him up at some point during the regular season if he continues to excel. Just like you’re saying our objections have no real footing to stand on (which really isn’t the case), so too can we say your desire to speed him up to the big club when the A’s have clearly avoided rushing him through the organization to begin with suggests your position is the questionable one.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Carter has been very impressive, but...
you say,
“If he pans out, Oakland may finally have the slugger they’ve been missing from their lineup for so long.”
More likely, the A’s will have another trade piece to acquire younger, more inexperienced players to fill their farm system.
Ah the life of an A’s fan…
I hear this
And I sense the frustration that I share, but has this really been the A’s MO? Besides Haren… who are the great players the A’s have traded before their free agent year?
Mark Mulder? Rich Harden? Joe Blanton?
I am seriously asking, because I think the recent conventional wisdom that the A’s ONLY want players who are good to trade for future good players to trade is hogwash but I haven’t looked too deeply into it.
Until 2007… the A’s had a remarkable streak of winning with a youthful core and strategic veteran signings/trades.
Looking around the league… which other teams have developed players and then kept them for more than 6 years on average? Anybody looked this up?
by jeffro on Aug 7, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
We should like, do a PhD Dissertation
Analyze every team, who they have signed extensions, who they ahve let alk, who they ahve traded in their walk year, etc. etc.
I agree
It is impossible to keep all of a teams good players unless you are the Yankees.
What a good team should do is figure out which hitters and pitchers they can afford to keep, and then slowly bring up prospects as you trade the rest to restock the system. You’ve got to have a constant pipeline of good prospect coming up to the majors if you want to have a sustained competitive run on a budget, or you end up in the position the A’s were in where they had to sell off everyone to get enough good prospects to compeite again.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Aug 7, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
No, you are right about most of the trades coming right before a player's FA.
It is likely just my frustration coming out with this team being unable to keep more FA than Chavez, but Haren (as you mentioned) and Swisher (as DeJay mentioned below) are examples prior to FA.
I am not too happy about letting several of the players walk at FA (or traded before FA) without even trying (or trying and failing) to resign them at the time (Tejada, Giambi ver. 1, Hudson, etc.). I just wish we could have kept more of them than Chavez.
Swisher is another one
But I agree with your general point. It is only the last few years that we have traded away our assets before their walk year. Giambi and Tejada were allowed to leave via free agency. So were Damon and Isringhausen. Chavez was resigned. So was Dye.
Chris Carter was #1 on BA's Prospect Hot Sheet
The Scoop: You won’t find a hotter hitter in the minors than Carter. He hasn’t missed a beat in his first season at Double-A, as he’s hitting .333/.428/.560 on the season. But he’s been scalding hot for the past three weeks, riding a 21-game hitting streak and propelling himself to the top of this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet.
Carter led the high Class A California League in home runs (39), RBIs (104) and slugging percentage (.569) last year, and he’s on pace to do even better this year. He leads the Texas League in average, hits (142), doubles (36), on-base percentage, slugging, extra-base hits (57) and runs (96). He’s also second in both home runs (19) and RBIs (85). In other words, he’s having a pretty good year.
Carter still strikes out a fair amount (102 in 108 games), but he’s drawn 70 walks and has cleaned up his defense as well. He made 10 errors in 41 games at first base last year, but that number has shrunk to seven in 95 games this year.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
And in the chat
They were nice enough to say he “should” be in the Top 100 next year.
by jdr on Aug 7, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya think?!?
I thought he was somewhere towards the bottom of the top 100 last year, but maybe that wasnt BA"s. I dont see why he would"t be top 50-75, maybe for lack of a true position, but that hasn"t stopped people from putting Billy Butler-types even higher.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Aug 7, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions
He is a top 25 prospect for me.
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 7, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Never heard of him.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
Isn't he the guy who created X-Files?
will crosby spread his legs so far apart at bat that the games will have to be rated nc-17 -- emperor nobody
I know it was only 3 games
but I saw Carter when Midland played here in Springfield and he was a DISASTER playing first. Things change. I’m sure he could be doing good. Midland was in 1st place yesterday when I showed up to work.
"I am Jack's inability to cleanly field a ball." ~Leopold Bloom
by athleticsgirl24 on Aug 8, 2009 11:55 PM PDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
