An in depth look at Rajai...
First off, I'll admit, I was a strong proponent to DFA Mr. Radio (thanks Embree!) during the course of the first half of the season. At the plate, he was overmatched often swinging and whiffing air on a regular basis. In the field, he never had good reads on hits, ran strange routes at times, and didn't seem to exhibit the communication skills necessary for good CFs. However, his recent play had me questioning my original position on him and even rooting for the guy! So I went to look at his stats breakdown:
His .285 / .357 / .411 line even trumps my man, Spartacust and is second on the team in OPS to only AK (well also Holliday, but he was he really ever here?). The OBP is a bit higher than his historical .325 clip in 631 PA due in part to a somewhat higher walk rate (did he stop using DJs old sunscreen lotion?), but mostly because his better BA. A more in depth look at his plate discipline shows that the most dramatic improvement he has had is in recognizing when a pitch is outside the zone (reduced from 36% to 29%) and swinging at it (reduced from 65% to 58% this year), otherwise all his PD stats are about the same. He still has surprisingly high strikeout rate which is even worse than last years, but this is mostly skewed by his first half suckitude. Looking closer at BA component, we see that his BABIP is at a very high .339 rate, which means that either he is 1) getting very lucky (league avg. BABIP is around .290-.300) 2) utilizing his speed to beat out hits (since he does have a 44% GB to FB/LD split) or C) a little of both. He probably won't be able to sustain these rates, but a line of .275 / .335 / .385 rate more in line with his majors track record, which means he's still really a 4th outfielder at best, which his OPS+ of 109 shows.
Since concluding that he is really a 4th outfielder (in offensive capabilities), we’ll concentrate on his defensive capabilities. I still think he gets really bad reads on balls which would coincide with his funky routes (let’s hope he’s not another Burns in disguise!), but luckily his speed makes up for most of this shortcoming. Fortunately, he hasn’t made many errors (2) and his UZR is still pretty good at 6.7, but so is Sweeney’s! If comparing the two, Sweeney has the better arm with the same range (yes, seriously, see fangraphs)! Rajai really needs to work on his reads, so that it will cut down on his circuitous routes, lessen the effect of his lack of arm strength, increase his overall range, and make him a standout defender in the outfield instead of just above average.
With all of this in mind, if you are a believer in WAR, it tells you that he is about 1.5 wins better than league average, good for 4th on the team in offensive/defensive value. For the casual fans, they’ll tell you that his intangibles such as speed in the outifeld, base stealing (yes really even with a 71% success rate), and clutch hitting of late (inciting echoes of Scutaro everywhere) are an essential component to future success. While many still have serious doubts on his “grits” by looking closer at his stats, we should enjoy it while we can. It may be a sign of things to come for a new era of Moneyball players, but that is for another fanpost! ;)
3 recs |
34 comments
Comments
BB rate
Looking at his numbers, his walk rates are pretty solid…when he gets at bats. I think the low walk rates in the majors are a case of inconsistent at bats and trying to do more than he’s capable of when he gets the chance, and of course better pitching.
If he got 600 at bats a year, I think he could do .265/..340/.380. With great outfield defense, and a good SB %. That ain’t a great player, but it’s sure as hell useful one.
by Emmett89 on Aug 4, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
In 2006, he only took 27 bases in 417 plate appearances (1 walk / 15 PAs) in the minor leagues with the Pirates. But in 07’ he improved that clip to 21 walks in 239 PAs (1 BB / 11 PAs). That same year, in the big leagues with the Pirates / Giants, he continued that trend with 21 walks in 219 PAs (1 BB / 10.5 PAs), but then it dramatically declined in 08-09 with the Giants/A’s (down to 1 BB / 17 PA). This year, he’s back to his 1 BB / 11 PA rate, which over the course of a 600 AB season translates to around 54BB which as you note, is pretty solid.
The one thing I do like about him that he has immensely overcome during the course of the 2nd half of the season is his KO rate. His contact rate with strike pitches compares very favorably (87.9%) compared to say Cust (71% historically but 81% this year…weird…save for another post). With such a contact hitter and good speed, it’s not easy to double up on him and makes him a good leadofft candidate, especially if he can better his defensive capabilities and continue to build on the walk rate.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 4, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think
Travis Buck should be getting playing time over Patterson, Davis, and Sweeney. Why he’s not out there remains a mystery
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 4, 2009 11:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if he will get better on reading flyballs and taking better routes
if he plays more? I guess he has been in the league long enough that he probably won’t get that much better. but we can still hope.
I’ve always liked Rajai but agree he was very bad in the begining of the season. I definitely did not predict this prolonged hot streak but I’m very glad it is happening.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Aug 4, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why aren't you...
a major league scout?
by Keystone State on Aug 4, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I may have called for Davis to be designated for assignment a few times, but I always thought he could be a fifth outfielder on a team just for his speed alone.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 4, 2009 2:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you..
but Rajai isn’t using his speed effectively IMHO. Sure, some XBH and runs are attributed to it, but hes much more gifted than what hes showing now. On the offensive side, he needs to go for more infield hits and bunt hits when he can improving his OBP. On the basepaths, he really needs to learn to how to read pitchers better to get a good jump (Rickey, where are you?), because he has a high caught stealing rate for someone with that much speed. In the outfield, I’ve already posted my feelings on his flyball reads, so if he can improve that….he can be gold glove caliber imho (especially if he learns to talk with his other fellow teammates out there).
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 4, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a great pic of Rickey in the current A's mag --
— that speaks to ST’s point, methinks. He’s pushing-off on a second or third stride and his body is essentially at a 45-degree angle (okay, 135). It’s a sprinter’s lean and it gives more length to every stride at next to no cost. Rajai runs straight-up.
How many strides between first and second — is it 15? If he could get an extra half-foot/stride he’d be a full body length farther along. They say you can’t coach speed, but they’re wrong.
Your mileage may vary.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Aug 6, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't find any good pics of Rajai running -- too fast, i guess...
But here’s Rickey’s lean:
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Aug 7, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Hardball Times has a fantastic tool for calculating xBABIP.
Looking closer at BA component, we see that his BABIP is at a very high .339 rate, which means that either he is 1) getting very lucky (league avg. BABIP is around .290-.300)
Instead of assuming that Rajai should have a BABIP around league average, you can calculated what his xBABIP is, in other words, what his BABIP should be if he had perfectly neutral luck. It’s more accurate than comparing to league average. For players with odd batted ball profiles (like Cust), it makes a pretty big difference. I stumbled across a Hardball Times xBABIP calculator. It’s pretty amazing.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/
The quick calculator section of the spreadsheet gives his xBABIP to be 0.313. Because his actual BABIP is quite a bit higher (0.339), he’s getting lucky, but not quite as lucky as you’d expect by looking at the league average BABIP.
by danmerqury on Aug 4, 2009 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for that link!
Definitely use it in the future….what i’d like to see from Rajai more is for him to utilize his strengths, which is mainly speed. He has very few infield hits (5 this year) and even fewer bunt hits(2). He should be comparable to Ichiro (9IFH / 5BH) in that sense and can increase his OBP dramatically, IMHO.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 4, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From what I've seen, he's a shitty bunter.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Aug 4, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His last 2 bunts have been excellent
One a push bunt for a hit, another a sac that he got down and managed to beat out. He might actually be learning how to do this.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Aug 4, 2009 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he is shitty bunter, he needs to do it about 50 more AB's this year and turn that weakness into a strengh.
It seems to me that a good % (10-20?) of caught stealing are actually safe, but are called out. The ball beats the runner but the tag is late or missed, and the ump is in a bad position or just blows it. Most ties get called out also. A much smaller percentage are outs called safe so blown calls hurt way more than they help.
I don’t know if this is a reason Davis % is not high enough or if indeed he has been screwed on his out calls, but if he was actually safe on 10-20% of his outs all he can do is shrug his shoulders and keep trying.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's been a great ride with Rajai
At least for the last little bit. I could have done with a lot less of him early in the season.
Thing is, he’s almost 29 years old. His batting profile is average-heavy. He’s by no means an elite defender. He’s a 25th man who’s playing a bit over his head right now. Regardless, Geren should be putting his bat in the lineup every game until he finally cools off.
by Joey C. on Aug 4, 2009 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Admittedly, I overlooked his age...
if this is in fact his prime years and he has nowhere to go but down, especially with the speed, I’d definitely advocate playing Sweeny, Patterson, and Buck more. If he can somehow sustain this level of play to the end of the year, he might be a good addition in a trade to a contender that needs some speed / defense off the bench. This might cause a revolt in the fan base, but it would be best for the franchise going forward..
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 4, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm... Cot's has his ML service time at around 1.2 heading into the year,
which if I’m correct, means he’s arbitration eligible after 2010. As much fun as Rajai has been to watch recently, I don’t think he’s worth keeping around for more than league minimum. This is offseason is probably a good time to shop him considering:
a.) He’s been playing well and his remaining pre-arbi year means he’s more valuable now than he’ll be in the future. He’s a toolsy fourth OF at the right price.
b.) Hairston gives the A’s added CF depth.
c.) the A’s may feel Patterson has some potential as a 5th OF, which is certainly suspect, given Eric’s much maligned defense and seeming proclivity for starting every AB in an 0-2 count. All the same, he matches Rajai speed-wise, and if Davis is as getting the poor reads some have suggested perhaps the defensive difference isn’t so great after all.
Bob Garen is incontinent
by Aufheben on Aug 4, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about hairston?
i haven’t been able to watch any full games since we picked him up. is he looking at all above average, or is he yet another 4th OF on the A’s?
by jlanning17 on Aug 5, 2009 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick glance..
at Hairston’s stats:
2009 Pads/A’s:
- .279/ .336/.486 OPS+ 110 looks good and means he has a high ceiling (144 OPS+ with Pads!). He should probably come down to earth to his career norms of .260/.320/..460 line which makes him a good 3rd outfielder (in line with what rajai is doing now)
- BABIP is .320 (not sure how to use the xBABIP tool yet) so it seems he has been lucky this season, though not as much as Rajai. Career norm is around .300 for him.
- Funny, for a more centric FB/LD hitter, he has 10 infield hits and 3 bunt hits (Rajai…are you listening?) so has quite a bit of speed (12 sb / 1 cs)
- Plate discipline wise, a quarter of the time he’ll swing balls outside the zone so look for at least a strikeout a game (but still better than Rajai at his best). He doesn’t walk a lot (1 BB / 14 PA), but does have good contact with balls in the strike zone (85%).
- Defensively, he doesn’t look so good. UZR wise hes at .7 without much range or arm strength. So Rajai is much better than him. Sweeny is probably a better option at CF as well.
All in all, his normalized offensive numbers beats out Rajai and has great potential (nice .slugging #’s!). However his defense probably limits him to more LF/RF then CF.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 5, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
cool, thanks for the breakdown
now what about the size of his dome compared to the rest of his body… he is like a bobblehead doll. are we sure they put the correct Hairston in the Mitchell Report?
by jlanning17 on Aug 7, 2009 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Billy sez...
… that Raj is going to be part of the team’s long-term plans, even with the uptick in salary due to arbitration.
Hmmmmmmmm.
by Joey C. on Aug 6, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chronicle implied today that he was going to be arb eligible after this year
maybe as a super two?
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 6, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for the misinformation
I actually think Cot’s has it wrong. Raj spent a full year on the giants/pirates roster and is in his second year with the A’s, so he would have to be passing the three year mark sometime soon, if not already.
Bob Garen is incontinent
by Aufheben on Aug 7, 2009 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cot's has it right
You’re reading it wrong, although it’s a very understandable mistake.
Cots has his service time as 1.167, which will be 2.167 this offseason if he spends the whole year with the A’s.
The thing is, 2.167 mimics a decimal number, but it’s not, so you can’t round it up to 2.2. It’s a conventional shorthand for representing service time. The number to the left of the dot (it’s not a “decimal point” in this context) is the years of service, but the number to the right of the dot is the days of service in addition to the fully completed years of service. Since there are 172 days to a full year of service time, if he got to 2.172 years of service time it would actually be 3.000.
So in decimal terms he will have 2 years plus 167/172 of a third year, or 2.97 years of service time. Therefore DFA’s speculation is correct, he’ll be a Super-Two.
by Faust on Aug 8, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Making long-term decisions about a player when he's in the middle of a hot streak
is a little like going grocery shopping when you’re famished.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Aug 4, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
That's why I looked..
at his overall career from minors to now. As I said, i don’t think he’s much better than a 4th outfielder at best (especially now that he’ll be soon peaking out) and that we fans should enjoy this little hot streak as long as it lasts, but long term commitments shouldn’t exactly be entertained at this point.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 4, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd argue he is one tick more than a "4th OFer" going forward,
and that is a “platoon starter” — now to some fans those may be one and the same, but I consider a platoon player to be part of the starting group.
Rajai’s career OBP against LHP is .340 and with a .340 OBP Rajai is a player worth starting, thanks to his plus speed and CF defense. Why you would start Sweeney in CF against a LHP on this team is beyond me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, totally agree
Sweeney and Davis could form a totally non-horrible platoon!
by Elston Gunn on Aug 6, 2009 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who knows
Will Rajai Davis keep playing like this? I doubt it but at this point who knows, I say ride that hot bat until it cools off because he isn’t taking time away from anyone all that special and he’s helping the A’s win some games.
I do know that a player like Davis makes the game much more fun to watch as I love watching guys fly around the bases and the one thing you can’t teach is speed. Really since the All Star break the A’s have been playing a style that is more fun then anything I’ve seen in three last 3 years and Davis has been a big part of that so let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
by sirbed on Aug 5, 2009 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rajai and his improvement
OMG, Pennington just hit a HR!
Anyway, back to my point. Rajai is decent on fly balls going to the sides and going back, but he doesn’t come in on the ball very well yet. On O. he’s definitely on a hot streak. To become more effective, he needs to become a much better bunter, and draw more walks. One of the things he doesn’t do is foul off balls very often. He needs to be able to spoil pitches, a la Ellis in order to draw more walks and become a better player.
With hard work and improvement,he can become an effective starting CF. If he doesn’t improve enough, he’s in danger of never establishing himself.
by coachmule on Aug 5, 2009 8:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A quick thing I noticed that I want to say before making any substantive comments...
is that you mishandle the treatment of WAR in your post. Rajai is not 1.5 wins above average as you claim but rather 1.5 wins above replacement. Over a full season a replacement level player is 20 runs or 2 wins below average, so at this point saying that Rajai is 1.5 wins above average is not accurate, in fact he is 5 runs below an average players’ full season (defined as 600 PAs). Now granted Rajai hasn’t played a full season yet, but he would need to be about 20 Runs above replacement for the rest of the season to be 1.5 wins above average.
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 6, 2009 8:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the correction DFA..
was looking at too many stats and confusing them….
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
by ST on Aug 6, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Raj Davis over the last 2 months
Has an 884 OPS.
If you take it from June 17 to now its 985.
Raj Davis…..your CF in 2010. He’s earned it.
by PL78 on Aug 12, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 


















