Is a walk off Triple a bad play? The coming out party of Rajai Davis with a rare statistical anomaly
by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 3:58 AM PDT
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After watching Rajai Davis win the game with his walk off triple Monday night with 2 strikes and 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth with runners on first and second, I started asking myself the last time I have ever seen a walk off triple. I haven't. It's always a walk off double. I think I should have at least herd of one happening before in the last 20 years of Sportscenter, but it's so obscure and random it's not something I would casually remember if another team did it.
Now I confess that I do not know if Davis touched third before Ellis scored, but i don't think he was that close or that he tagged 3rd before Ellis touched Home. I thought that the game is over the second Ellis touches home and Davis would olny get credit for the last base touched before the end of the game. But the official rules must give the official scorer some leeway and that scorer choose otherwise.
But its possible for a fast runner to get the 270 feet home to 3rd faster than the first-base runner could get 260 feet, 1st to Home with a ten feet lead. If it's possible then walk-off triples must happen on a small but semi-frequent basis. Not that I can find any data on it. They must be very rare.. So rare that walk off doubles's may happen up to 50 times more offen than triples. Now take all the walk-off triples ever scored, now put in that it was 2 strikes and 2 outs and see how many of those have ever happened. We may never see that again in our lifetime on Sportscenter.
I would like to know how often other rare end of game consequences happen and see which one is the rarest. A walk-off balk. A walk-off steal of home. But there is one other reason why I think a walk-off triple is super-rare. Because it is not a good play. Therefore most players would not try it. And even if they did, the official scorer may not give them the triple so what is the point. What possible positive outcome was there for Davis to keep running after getting to 2nd? All he can do is get thrown out at 3rd before the run at home scores. Not that that was going to happen in this case but still why go?
To answer my own question, I can think of few possible outcomes that could be beneficial however unlikely .
1) If the runner at first was slower, and the ball coming back to the infield was quicker, Davis, thinking that the runner would be thrown out at home, went for third and successfully deaked the first baseman into throwing it to 3rd, too late.
2) The runner from first could also have changed his mind halfway down the third base line on trying to score, and thinking that runner was going to get caught in a pickle, Davis goes to 3rd, leading to a botched rundown and the player getting home. I think alot of these scenarios, including the one tonight could be classified more than one way. How long does the official scorer have to change his ruling before it becomes, officially, a super rare, walk-off triple?
Ok, now one last illogicall question for you to mull over on this strange play. Can we agree that the official scorer can make rulings where he can interpret the rulebook in different ways? K, with me so far? Now what if Powell had been on first and Davis had gone for an inside the park HR, touching home plate a split second after Powell, how could it be scored and has something like it ever happened before?
I would like to thank Rajai for winning the game tonight, and doing it in a obscure and exciting way. He has been playing really well as of late and has helped make the team fun to watch in a down year. I also think this is the night he has officially got my vote in his bid to be a starting outfielder for the A's moving forward the next year or two. I have always liked him on the team and saw good value in him being a 4th outfeilder- Defensive replacment- pinch-runner. But now, dare I say, he is the first one of our young outfeilders to officially break out over the last few years and I don't know if I ever epected that. Nor did I expect to be happy with a breakout not tied to being a HR hitter.
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My opinion.....
If he can keep up his current .50+ BB/K, and excellent defense I welcome him with open arms. His minor league numbers say he can.
If he returns to last years mediocrity (7/34 BB/K) then Do Not Want.
It’s a nice luxury to have 2 excellent defensive CFers, even if they aren’t glamorous hitters.
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
i have found an answer for how rare a walk-off triple is at the bottom of this post.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Rajai NEEDS to be starting right now
Since he’s proven to be our best hitting OFer at the moment.
I think we should keep either him or Patterson long-term. If Raj keeps hitting like this or if Patterson picks it up, we can keep them both. But if both of them are not hitting we dont need 2 Pinch Runners.
Yes, unfortunately there's only room for one of Patterson and Davis on next year's team.
(And that’s assuming Buck doesn’t make the team, which he should, but probably won’t.) I’d like to see an OF next year of Hairston, Cunningham and a Sweeney/Davis platoon. I still don’t think Davis is good (150 ABs does not make you a non-horrible hitter), but that would be a great defensive OF that might provide average offensive value.
Patterson sucks
He can’t hit major league pitching. He can’t field any of his positions particularly well. This guy has no business wearing a major league uniform. May be a nice guy, and he’s obviously a “team player” (though I think that sort of thing is way overrated by managements everywhere; genius comes from quirkiness), but there’s no way he should be on the Oakland A’s.
he's had 188 major league PAs
and has a career about .380 OBP with decent SLG in a big sample. MAYBE he really is one of those rare guys that just can’t make the leap, but he’s a long way from having proven that.
Dude's swing is too long
He can’t catch up to a 90+ mph fastball.
Plus, it’s an uppercut swing, and he’s not a power hitter.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
and would it kill him to bunt once in a while?
He’s one of the fastest guys in the league, (I am told because he does not get on base enough to prove it) and he is swinging for the fences. You are not a home run hitter period; get that through your thick head.
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
do people not throw hard in the minors?
it’s seems to me that pitchers fail just as often because they can’t control good stuff than that they don’t have the stuff. i really don’t know about the average speed of a fastball in AAA.
look, I’m not a scout, and I’ve only seen Patterson play a couple times, but I think there’s a lot of confirmation bias going on here. he gets out a lot in less than 200 PAs, so you find a reason why it means he’s a bad hitter.
it’s like with Davis. at the beginning of the year, everyone (including me) was shouting that he’d never hit, was worthless and should be DFA’d. we were even calling him a bad defender and baserunner, talking about his wild routes and bonehead plays. a decent 150 PAs later, a lot of people think he should be the starting CF going into next year. Davis didn’t change. he still can’t hit, he still plays great defense and he still is a great baserunner. the stats just changed, and all of a sudden our eyes are telling us very different things.
i should refine what i'm saying about Davis.
his recent hitting does indicate that he’s probably a better hitter than we previously thought, even if it’s a small sample. all i mean is that opinions about his defense and baserunning seem to have changed as he started performing statistically better with the bat. we don’t think he sucks overall anymore, so we’re looking through different eyes.
okay, just read that other davis thread,
maybe i’m totally wrong! people still think the same things about his defense and baserunning. all i’ll say is that if it’s true, he must have incredible speed to make up for it, because he’s still really good at both things.
as for Patterson, i’d just like to see him get 300-400 PAs at some point, if only to find out what he is.
he gets the base he was headed for
didn’t really notice but I don’t think he’s so fast he actually made it to third before Cros scored. Remember Crosby is running on contact in that situation, and that’s worth more than the ten foot lead you gave him in your calculation.
With two out, it's not a good play because
if the runner (in this case Ellis) scores the game is over and if he’s out the inning is over — and if he stops at 3B you’d better stop at 2B.
However, with less than two outs it’s a perfectly good play because if the runner is out you have advanced an important base.
So basically, a “walk off triple” was only smart if there were less than two outs at the time and the runner was safe (making it a walk-off triple).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, but Damn it was exciting!
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
It was a good play because we won.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
It's a bad play because it is not a heads-up play.
If you know you just won the game, you stand on the bag at second in glory. If you keep running, we all are forced to think you don’t understand what just happened. A walk-off triple is a demonstration of lack of concentration. The only other explanation is that it is a showing of poor sportsmanship, which is worse, so I’ll allow him the benefit of the doubt. Imagine a hockey player, with the final whistle about to blow in a 2-1 victory, streaking toward the undefended net to jam it in. Bad sportsmanship, everybody knows.
I disagree with this
going to 3rd does not run up the score at all so your hockey analogy doesn’t quite fit. And why circle the bases on a walk-off HR if the runner ahead of you has already scored and won the game, you should just stand at 1st and bask in your glory?
Rajai was just running full speed because that’s what he does. When he gets a hit he should stretch it as far as he can.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
see my answer below
Rajai knew he was entitled to as many bases as he took, because Suzuki had failed to run out a double earlier in the year, and was awarded only a single. You are entitled to the same number of bases as it takes the winning run to score. That’s why you can hit a monster shot off the wall, and only get a single, because the runner is at third (one base). Belief of the official scorer has nothing to do with how it’s scored. The formula was described in the newspaper, when Suzuki failed to run out his hit for a double.
He didn’t fail the second time it happened. You are simply required to keep running. But, of course, the runner better score before they get the ball back. If you are tagged out before the run scores…bad!!!!
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Aug 12, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Hockey analogy doesn't work
If you hit a grand slam with two outs and the game tied 1-1, is it poor “sportsmanship” to score?? That’s a worse case of “rubbing it in” than the hockey net hypothetical.
You could VERY EASILY SHOW " A TOTAL CONCENTRATION" by curling into the infield, and not “run up the score”. Heck, your run doesn’t count! It’s already 4-1…. why rub it in and make it “5-1”….unless, you prefer to show “poor sportsmanship”??? Your run means nada. Game is over.
According to the rules, Rajai was entitled to as many bases as he gets to, as long as he does not stop running. That is the rule. It is the number of bases taken by the winning runner that puts in the potential number of bases that the runner is entitled to (HR being the exception). But, you cannot stop. Once you stop running, that is the number you get. Rajai could have been awarded only a single, if he stopped at first. But since the runner at first had to touch three bases to score, and ball game over at that point, Rajai had the potential to have a triple so long as he keeps running. Suppose Ellis crosses the plate, and Rajai has just rounded second. The ball game is over. If Rajai keeps running, even if the other team throws the ball to third, and the ball is sitting there waiting for Rajai, he still gets the triple if he keeps running and touches third. They cannot tag him “out” because the ball is “dead”.
Who would not want a triple instead of a double? He knew the rule because of Suzuki’s “non-double” so he took it.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Aug 12, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It was a good play
because it boosted his SLG by .00662 and everywhere stat-heads’ heads exploded.
Save Rajai Davis
That, or it was a good play because it won the game.
Believe it or not, us statheads are baseball fans too.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
easy, I was poking fun at myself
for calculating how much it actually boosted his slugging.
Save Rajai Davis
Is that boost over the previous value
or boost over what the value would’ve been if it were ruled a double?
I would like to see Raj start more this year
And I’d like to see less of Sweeney. If Raj can maintain ~.750 OPS, I’d like to head into next year with a Hairston/Raj/Buck outfield. I would like to see Patterson get regular playing time this year, maybe spelling OF’s and getting time at 2B and 3B. If he hits well, he could start at 3B next year, and if he doesn’t, he could replace Crosby on the bench. At least he’d still have defensive value, plus he could be used as a PR.
Another thing I’d like to see is more AB’s for Powell. A lot more AB’s. Even if it means DH’ing him and taking AB’s from Cust.
I think it'd be worth it to platoon Davis and Sweeney.
Sweeney’s actually a decent hitter against righties. It’s not a great situation, but, hey, we’re the A’s.
Also, I doubt Davis can put up a .750 OPS over a full year. He’s in a hot streak, let’s not go crazy. That said, if he can just be replacement level hitter (he’s been below for a lot of his career, I think), his defense and baserunning are good enough that he’s not an embarassment (think Hannahan basically).
And one more thing. I hope Buck is in the OF next year too, but I really think he’s being blackballed for some reason and probably will be gone this offseason. I’m not happy about it.
Over the last 365 calendar days, according to baseball-reference.com
Davis is hitting .290/.346/.423 in 272 PAs. Not nearly a full season (about 1/2), but still a larger SS.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
That's interesting.
I definitely have a higher opinion of his batting skills than I did at the beginning of the year. I still don’t think he’s good, exactly, but like I said, not an embarrassment.
Sweeney's splits
Versus LHP: .250/.348/.350
Versus RHP: .279/.314/.358
He’s not a decent hitter against anyone.
those are splits for this season.
you can’t just pull splits from such small samples and act like they’re meaningful. platoon splits are notoriously noisy. they’re much more normal for his career. 285/.335/.385 vs. righties, 232/.312/.287 vs. lefties.
that said, you do have a point. over his career, he’s still a pretty damn bad hitter even against righties. i’m not saying it’s a great solution, but i think we’re stuck with him, and with his superb corner/average center defense, he’s also not an embarrassment. it’s possible that Davis really is this good, which would make Sweeney a good 4ith outfielder, but I don’t believe in Davis much at all, so I’m voting for the platoon.
fair enough
I guess we have differing opinions on Davis. For the record, I certainly don’t think he’s the 1.083 OPS guy we saw in July, but I could see him putting up a .260/.345/.400 slash line over a full season.
In the long run, I’m hoping Corey Brown can take over at CF, but I don’t see that happening until maybe 2011 at the earliest.
For a guy who can play very good CF defense,
and whose running can disrupt and take over a game, if Davis can put up a line of .260/.345/.400 then he’s a real asset to a starting lineup.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is what I'm saying
I really like the guy. I’d like to him get a chance to play every day and see what happens.
Official scorer
I believe the rule is that Davis may be credited with as many bases as it takes the winning run to score so long as he (Davis) actually touches that base (3rd). He doesn’t have to touch the base before the runner touches home. The exception of course is the over the fence HR where the batter receives full credit for the hit regardless of where on base the winning runner started from.
I would just add that the official scorer
has to believe the batter would have had that number of bases had the game not ended abruptly. In this case, Rajai didn’t just get to third because no one was focused on him; had it been the 4th inning, and had the Rangers conceded that Ellis was going to score, Rajai still would have had a triple.
In other words, Landon Powell would not have been credited with a triple on that same play even had he been at 3B when he was mobbed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Actually
There is (at least) one case where a walk-off homerun has been changed to a ground-rule double because the hitter somehow passed a runner. Not only that, it happened on a night where the opposing pitcher threw 12 perfect innings.
The ball sailed over the bullpens at the 392-foot mark, but Mr. Aaron didn’t realize it had left the park. Thinking the game was over, he headed to the dugout after rounding second after he saw Mr. Mantilla cross home plate. Mr. Adcock kept running and passed him up.
All was lost — the perfect game, the no-hitter, the game itself — as confusion held sway.
Mr. Adcock was called out for passing a runner, so the three-run homer became a double. The umpires announced the score as 2-0, which most morning newspapers carried in their headlines.
The next day, the league office set the score at 1-0.
“The score shall be determined by disregarding the ‘home run’ and recording it as it would be if [Mr. Adcock] had a two-base hit, in which case only the run or runs score which are necessary to win the game,” National League president Warren Giles ruled.
The play-by-play reads like this:
BRAVES 13TH: Mantilla reached on an error by Hoak; Mathews out
on a sacrifice bunt (pitcher to second) [Mantilla to second];
Aaron was walked intentionally; Adcock doubled to center
[Mantilla scored (unearned), Aaron to third, Adcock out at
second (shortstop unassisted)]; 1 R (0 ER), 1 H, 1 E, 1 LOB.
Pirates 0, Braves 1.
Baseball, it’s a funy game.
I'm here to talk about the past.
And for the record, the first official score I was seeing last night was "double"
Which Yahoo’s boxscore still says despite the headline ;-)
Bottom 9th: Oakland
- S. Hairston grounded out to third
- C.J. Wilson relieved D. O’Day
- J. Cust singled to shallow right
- N. Garciaparra hit for R. Sweeney
- N. Garciaparra struck out swinging
- T. Everidge singled to right, J. Cust to second
- B. Crosby ran for T. Everidge
- M. Ellis singled to left, J. Cust scored, B. Crosby to second
- R. Davis hit for E. Patterson
- R. Davis doubled to right, B. Crosby and M. Ellis scored
I'm here to talk about the past.
MLB's Oakland A's site still has it a triple. That's why I was wondering when it bacame "official"and can't be changed back.
the triple ruling was so odd that different web-sites are fighting over what to call it.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Yahoo is always wrong
Try following a hockey game with them some time. Just brutal!
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
I'm glad you saved me trouble of writing that
I knew the game didn’t end the “instant” the runner touched home with the winning run. As long as you take the base, you will get credit. Thus, if Davis did not beat a throw to third, it would not have mattered…then run would have already scored, the game would be “over” and he =still= would have been credited with a triple.
Those that suggest that somehow, it was “dumb” to take the extra base don’t know the rules.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Aug 12, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
So
This is a deep, well thought out post. All I could think when watching this was, “Damn he is fast.”
A little wrinkle on Davis's game-ending hit
is that after he rounded 2B he had to change his route to avoid Andrus, who was watching Nelson in RF and standing right in Rajai’s way in the basepath. So I think a good case could be made that there was obstruction on that play, and that Rajai should be awarded 3B for that reason.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
That would be just our luck:
We don’t get the obstruction call our way with Varitek or Miggy in 2003, but we get it in the most meaningless possible situation!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just our luck cont.
And on the ball rolling down the RF line, the SS hangs around in the basepath between 2nd and 3rd, instead of running over to the 1B line so he can flip the ball to the catcher.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
regardless if going to 3rd was necessary or not
I would never call it a “bad play”. The only bad thing that could happen in that situation is somehow the other team get the batter/runner out before the run scores. That would almost never happen because there isn’t a force out (on this type of hit because by the time it lands or a fielder reaches it the runners will have touch the next base) and the opposing team is going to be focused on the runner who is going to score the winning run. I can’t imagine the other team even paying attention to where the batter is at after reaching 2nd.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I remember this happening one time
Carl Everett got thrown out at third by an A’s Left Fielder I can’t recall. It was the single dumbest move I ahve ever seen. It ended the game… Anyone else remember this game? In Fenway?
I have it on tape.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 4, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought it was Manny, not Everett
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
not the same situation. Everett was not the batter
that makes all the difference.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Aug 12, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I would also like to point out this typo
not because I want to make the poster look bad, because I misspell words and make typos all the time. Only because it’s funny.
I think I should have at least herd of one happening before in the last 20 years of Sportscenter,
I can’t help but picture a bunch of cows, mooooooo!
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
anyone know of a stat site that tracks game-ending plays?
I know Sportscenter could have told us when the last time a game-winning triple happened but how are they researching it?
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
If someone finds it
let me know how many walk-off triple plays there have been.
I'm here to talk about the past.
nice one. how about walk-off unassisted triple plays?
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Major gap in the poll options.
You need one that says, “Earlier in the season I wanted to DFA him, but now I’ve changed my mind and think we should keep him.” I expect that would be a pretty popular choice.
As it is, you’re saying that anyone who ever wanted to DFA Davis must either still want to DFA him or else cynically believe “it probably won’t last”. What, people aren’t allowed to change their mind? Rajai has no hope of ever winning anyone over?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
ya i got tired by the time I got to the poll. I knew my options were missing something or needed a different word choice but my mind had stopped working when I was editing it, so I went with what I had and went to bed.
I was wondering if anyone was going to call me on it. I probably didn’t need a poll or that poll anyways since the main part of my post had to do with the oddity of the walk off triple, and was not a pro/con Davis post.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
by the way, Davis is leading off tonight
here’s the starting lineup according to Slusser:
The lineup: Davis CF, Suzuki C, Hairston LF, Garciaparra DH, Cust RF, Everidge 1B, Crosby 3B, Ellis 2B, Pennington SS.
She also notes that Giambi has not been activated off the DL, and that Braden has a rash that may cause him to miss his start.
How rare answer- Dan over at the Beyond the Box Score blog has some answers.
In the Retrosheet era, which seems to really start in 1920, but is missing 25 years between 1930-1955 and missing lots of other games in the seasons they do have:
Walk off singles-4813
walk off doubles- 781
Walk off HR- 2710
walk off triple- 118
so if we call it 200 for the missed games pre and post 1920, walk off triples happen a bit less than twice a year. now I need to see if I can figure out how many were with two strikes and two outs. 33% should be two outs (33% O outs, 33% 1outs). or 66.
33% of those 2 strike counts (ballpark).
So the ballpark number is we witnessed something that has happened 22 other times in ML history.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
% of walk-offs hits
Triples…… 1%
Doubles…. 9%
HR……….. 32%
singles….. 57%
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
The batter is entitled to as many bases as it takes the runner to score
That is, if the runner is a first, he will need to touch three bases to end the game. The batter is entitled to up to three bases, if he does not stop running. I think most stop with a double, not knowing the rule. Also, few are as fast as Davis, so they might not even get to second before the winning run scores, or simply “play it safe” and stay at second or first, making certain that they don’t get tagged out FIRST prior to the run scores.
But if they round first and see their teammate rounding third and the outfielders chasing the ball, the batter might as well cruise into third. He gets a triple, because of the rule, even if the outfielders get the ball and throw to third. The ball is dead, because the game is over. They cannot tag him out, but he can have his triple.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Aug 12, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
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