FanPost

GOG 2009 #43

September is here (well, it will be here tomorrow at least), so the A's schedule is packed full of the AL West. I'm really not looking forward to any more games against Seattle, but we can take solace in the series starting today against the woeful Kansas City Royals. As usual, Posnanski puts it best:

But this Royals team reminds me of that 1993 Mets team in this way — they are not without talent. But they will do what’s necessary to lose games. The 2005 Royals went out there every day knowing that the team across the dugout was better than they were. These Royals, on the other hand, are bad when Zack Greinke’s pitching. They are also bad when they score five runs in a game (4-10 record in those games if you can believe that). They don’t SCORE five runs in a game very often … but they still find ways to lose when they do.
...
They are also — and I admit this is an unofficial stat but I’m pretty confident about it — the league leader in times a player forgot the number of outs. The other day, catcher Miguel Olivo ran off the field with two outs which was staggering not because it was unusual (it has to be the third time this year Olivo has forgotten the number of outs) but because only two batters had come to the plate. It wasn’t like it was a long inning or something.
...
They are also — and I admit this is an unofficial stat but I’m pretty confident about it — the league leader in times a player forgot the number of outs. The other day, catcher Miguel Olivo ran off the field with two outs which was staggering not because it was unusual (it has to be the third time this year Olivo has forgotten the number of outs) but because only two batters had come to the plate. It wasn’t like it was a long inning or something.

Ok, that is getting to be a pretty long quote up there (of course, since it's from Posnanski's blog, it only amounts to about one fifth of the whole article). The point is to be thankful that, while the A's are an occasionally frustrating team that is lacking in talent, particularly on the offensive side, they at least can play some defense, hold a lead late in the game, and occasionally surprise you with a clutch hit. I can't say it enough: at least they aren't the Royals.

Links

GOG #43 :: The Royals Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha! (34 points possible)

Three game series vs Kansas City Royals -- August 31, September 1-2

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

  1. Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
  2. Edgar Gonzalez is back in the starting rotation. Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB
  3. Billy Butler's 41 doubles put him in a four way tie for 2nd place (Brian Roberts leads baseball with 48 doubles). In the last series against Oakland, he hit four doubles (including three in one game). How many two-baggers for the Royals big 1B/DH in this series? [3 points] no doubles for Butler
  4. I've been pretty critical of Ryan Sweeney, because of his lack of power and inability to take a walk, but the only position players on the team who have posted more wins above replacement are Holliday and Davis (Suzuki is close, though, and Fangraphs WAR doesn't try to evaluate catcher defense, so there is a good argument for Suzuki being more valuable than Sweeney). How many hits in this series for Ryan? [3 points] 3 hits
  5. Miguel Olivo is having his best year with the bat, if it's at all possible to say that about someone with a .274 OBP. He has 17 home runs but he is swinging at an amazing 44.5% of pitches out of the zone. Predict his BB/K/HR against Oakland [2 points each] 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR
  6. Kyle Farnsworth has had a very interesting season. A FIP of 3.12 is pretty darn good, as is a K/BB ratio of 3.88. On the other hand, the ERA of 5.40 is not so impressive. The best part is that pretty much all of his meltdowns have come in the late innings of close games. Fangraphs calculates a clutch score which is the difference between win probability added in high leverage and low leverage situations. Farnsworth's clutch score of -3.13 wins is far and away the worst for any player in baseball. Will the A's face Farnsworth in any game where the score is within two runs? Will Farnsworth allow any earned runs in the series (in any situation, not just a close game)? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Yes, Farnsworth did pitch in a two-run game. He did allow one earned run.
  7. If they had been able to hang on to all of their players, the Royals could be featuring an outfield of Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, and Jermaine Dye instead of David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, Coco Crisp, Mark Teahen, and whoever else. How many RBI for Royals outfielders in the series? [3 points] 3 RBI
  8. Twenty eight games is way too few to really say anything, but UZR likes Pennington's defense so far at shortstop. He's been pretty much average in terms of range and double plays, but zero errors on 38 put outs and 86 assists is pretty good. How many assists for Pennington in the series? Will he commit his first major league error? [3 points for the first part, +-1 for the second part] 8 assists, no errors
  9. The active roster expands on September 1. The A's will use the extra space to take Crosby off the DL and probably also add some bullpen depth, since Gonzalez is back in the rotation. Guess which new addition to the major league roster contributes the most win probability added for Oakland [3 points] Blevins contributes the most WPA, with +.074 spread over two appearances. Other September call-ups who saw action are Kilby (.014 WPA) and Eveland (.001 WPA).
  10. Joe Posnanski has started the push for the Royals to call up Disco Hayes (the nickname "Disco" is because he throws his fastball in the 70's!), a submarining relief pitcher who is currently pitching in AAA Omaha. Will Hayes get a September call up (during this series)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm. You all know what to do by now.

Results

Wow, really high scores on this one. I guess I'm being nicer with the questions. Olivo's BB and HR were pretty much gimmes. Same with the Disco Hayes question, and whether or not Pennington would get an error (swatnick pointed out in his entry that it might be more about the official scorekeeper in Oakland than it is about Cliff).

Overall scoring statistics

  • mean = 11.8571 points
  • standard deviation = 4.81755 points
  • mode = 10 points
Gog2009_43_medium

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to muffinpryde for dominating this GOG! Also, we have three new members of the 200 points club, muffinpryde, swatnick, and oblique, plus Angry Sean is knocking on the door...

name place (this GOG) score (this GOG) # of GOGs place (all GOG) score (all GOG) place (by AVG) score by AVG
muffinpryde 1 22 36 11 206 24 0.172
swatnick 2 18 23 11 206 1 0.271
micdog2001 18 35 6 250 10 0.216
oblique 4 17 35 10 208 21 0.180
zaniac75 5 11 41 2 323 4 0.240
A'sfaninNC 11 35 3 267 5 0.234
doctorK 7 10 43 7 233 27 0.165
colin 10 42 5 255 19 0.185
stranahanahan 10 8 41 44 N/E 0.171
streetfan 10 9 39 15 185 30 0.144
JLeverenz 11 8 26 16 179 11 0.211
nevermoor 8 41 1 333 3 0.248
Angry Sean 13 7 38 14 197 29 0.156
Rated-R Superstar 7 37 4 260 9 0.217
Mantecan As Fan DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.024
SoCal As Fan DNP -- 14 30 93 16 0.200
NateHST DNP -- 15 25 112 7 0.225
DCinWC DNP -- 16 32 84 28 0.158
GoAs DNP -- 32 9 214 17 0.199
mikeA DNP -- 31 8 232 6 0.227
ZeroIndulgence DNP -- 20 24 116 23 0.176
gigglingone DNP -- 16 23 117 8 0.225
Kimberly DNP -- 21 19 131 18 0.189
vegAN ryAN DNP -- 4 52 27 N/E 0.185
diehardoaklandfan22 DNP -- 16 27 106 13 0.202
Walton711 DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.214
travdog6 DNP -- 2 95 1 N/E 0.013
Boonee DNP -- 3 58 19 N/E 0.174
RayJEdd DNP -- 12 28 104 N/E 0.252
A'sBowlingLeague DNP -- 2 58 19 N/E 0.244
elephantbaseball DNP -- 19 20 126 15 0.200
brian.only DNP -- 4 69 14 N/E 0.096
robertmelvin DNP -- 6 43 41 N/E 0.188
OaktownPower DNP -- 16 26 110 14 0.201
roscoe DNP -- 29 17 161 25 0.168
Flashfire DNP -- 1 87 6 N/E 0.143
designatedforassignment DNP -- 3 68 16 N/E 0.145
tresselfan DNP -- 4 84 7 N/E 0.046
KMoAsFan DNP -- 4 57 20 N/E 0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.238
GreenOctober69 DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.190
SLOtown DNP -- 10 36 60 N/E 0.174
baseballnut020 DNP -- 9 40 51 N/E 0.173
MaineAthletic DNP -- 12 33 73 N/E 0.187
j_rich36 DNP -- 1 84 7 N/E 0.167
scutaroknowstheway DNP -- 1 92 3 N/E 0.071
train80 DNP -- 35 11 206 22 0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar DNP -- 11 31 88 N/E 0.251
jay_sensei DNP -- 6 41 44 N/E 0.227
easyraider DNP -- 14 29 99 12 0.206
Athletix Man DNP -- 9 37 59 N/E 0.199
Athletics fan and runner DNP -- 6 52 27 N/E 0.133
Holy Toledo! DNP -- 1 92 3 N/E 0.083
Nico DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF DNP -- 1 99 -1 N/E -0.028
JLaff DNP -- 1 91 4 N/E 0.111
WaddellCanseco DNP -- 5 51 28 N/E 0.164
crb29 DNP -- 11 34 70 N/E 0.196
eastcoasta'sfan DNP -- 4 56 23 N/E 0.161
Oaktownflav DNP -- 3 64 17 N/E 0.156
Future Ed DNP -- 6 43 41 N/E 0.197
JediLeroy DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.222
Dalesman DNP -- 2 87 6 N/E 0.083
nateh37 DNP -- 7 45 39 N/E 0.174
anomaly_kat DNP -- 3 61 18 N/E 0.173
sprtsnwyn DNP -- 2 64 17 N/E 0.250
VORP is too nerdy DNP -- 4 47 32 N/E 0.234
asyouwish33 DNP -- 1 81 8 N/E 0.250
jeffro DNP -- 4 61 18 N/E 0.150
Cutthemullet DNP -- 3 55 24 N/E 0.238
stabbin_mcadams DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.312
jasonthea DNP -- 4 49 30 N/E 0.219
fruitattack DNP -- 11 48 31 N/E 0.086
adragon DNP -- 28 18 152 26 0.167
Helloooo 1st DNP -- 6 46 34 N/E 0.165
King Richard DNP -- 2 71 13 N/E 0.203
jpl DNP -- 8 39 55 N/E 0.222
baseballgirl DNP -- 1 74 10 N/E 0.286
whiteshoes40 DNP -- 18 35 68 31 0.116
walkoff baltimore chop DNP -- 1 84 7 N/E 0.200
spiffyjwc DNP -- 2 71 13 N/E 0.194
samljm DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.265
pam5981 DNP -- 7 37 59 N/E 0.276
Gaijin_Suketto DNP -- 1 69 14 N/E 0.424
harenshair DNP -- 15 20 126 2 0.249
tosk DNP -- 5 50 29 N/E 0.179
mikev DNP -- 1 64 17 N/E 0.515
Leopold Bloom DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.029
ElQuesoCapitan DNP -- 3 61 18 N/E 0.194
Trainman DNP -- 2 92 3 N/E 0.049
OptimistPrime DNP -- 1 89 5 N/E 0.179
dtownmbrown DNP -- 4 54 25 N/E 0.182
Blicks DNP -- 21 20 126 20 0.183
chillicothe20 DNP -- 1 78 9 N/E 0.265
ChadGod DNP -- 1 71 13 N/E 0.382
SamYam DNP -- 3 58 19 N/E 0.186
JLopez DNP -- 3 89 5 N/E 0.051
robbo650 DNP -- 4 64 17 N/E 0.132
Steve in Napa DNP -- 1 95 1 N/E 0.032
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