The 2011 Rotation: Welcome To "Best-Comp Theatre"
by Nico on Aug 29, 2009 9:51 AM PDT
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PrintSo if you're trying to figure out about how good the A's rotation will be in a couple years, when the young starting pitchers have established a "true ability" level, one way to analyze it is to compare each starting pitcher to the established pitcher they best match.
Now we don't, of course, know exactly who will be in the rotation, nor do we know precisely what the best comp will actually be -- hence the fun part. Here are my thoughts...
Note: I've left Josh Outman out because until he recovers from TJ surgery his timeline and profile are too unknown. Same with Fautino De Los Santos. But both could definitely be factors in 2011.
Anderson features a 93MPH fastball, a "swing-and-miss" breaking pitch, commands both sides of the plate well, and works hitters like a veteran. Best Available Comp: Jon Lester.
This is the hardest one for me, because at this point Cahill doesn't show the sinker-command to earn a comparison to Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe, yet the drop-off from those guys to most sinkerballers is too steep, i.e., Cahill, as well as he's progressing at age 21, looks to be a lot better than the Sergio Mitres of the world. And guys like Chien-Ming Wang and Carlos Silva walk less than a batter every 4 innings, hardly the best comp for Cahill's strengths and weaknesses. I still think Cahill has a chance to elevate his game, eventually, to Lowe's level, but at the moment I'm going to say that with a good sinker, slider, changeup combo marred by erratic control and consistency...Best Available Comp: Jason Marquis, for a while until it all comes together, then eventually Derek Lowe.
What stands out about Braden, of course, is the plus-changeup and fastball command, and while James Shields is a good comp in a lot of ways, he just isn't left-handed enough for these purposes. So while it's a bit of a reach -- and as generous a comp as Marquis is stingy for Cahill -- I'll go with...Best Available Comp: Ted Lilly. And if the A's deal Braden for a platoon outfielder, I'm quitting baseball for good.
To me, Mazzaro will stall unless he develops some weapons under 85MPH. His changeup is only okay and he doesn't pull the string on the breaking pitch. He is pretty much dependent on a sinker/slider combo bolstered by good fastball velocity that forces batters to start their swing early. Best Available Comp: Jeremy Bonderman.
The big signature curve and the erratic control scream "Zito" but the 93MPH fastball and rarely-seen changeup do not. So I search for a LHP with a 93MPH fastball and sharp breaking stuff, who walks too many and can thus be dominant or awful. Dontrelle Willis? Sean Marshall? Rich Hill? Not established enough to be a comp. So start learning about the Colorado school system, Gio...Best Available Comp: Mike Hampton.
James Simmons
I include Simmons because he's likely to be a "back of the rotation" factor by 2011. Here's a tall, skinny, command guy without the great stuff but with the ability to thrive when he's hitting the corners and working all parts of the plate. Best Available Comp: Andy Sonnanstine.
So if the comps are right (and they aren't), and every young A's pitcher stays healthy (pause for laughter), here's a sense of what the 2011 rotation could look like in terms of how good it is:
Lester
Lilly
Marquis
Hampton
Bonderman or Sonnanstine
You could do worse, but it also shows that...You can never have too much starting pitching. And that #3 starters can be really important: Turn Marquis into Lowe and suddenly that rotation looks great.
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It should be noted that
Jason Marquis has been a better pitcher than Lowe this year.
The artist formerly known as HigherPie.
And was a terrible terrible pitcher before that
he has been a league average pitcher 1 time before this year and his FIP is traditionally a half a run or more above league average.
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I like the Lowe comparison if we consider his overall career
Marquis has been better this year only, and I think Lowe is on the downside of his career. — one reason why I wasn’t sorry that the A’s didn’t pursue him in the offseason since he was looking for multiple years. (and yes, I still hold the Lil-ly and crotch grab capers of 2003 against him, but I would support signing anyone who actually helps the A’s).
I guess I see Cahill as a "leap candidate" --
someone who won’t so much steadily improve as he will struggle for a while and then make a leap. I would say that right now, Cahill is Jason Marquis and that at some point he make the rather ginormous leap from that to Lowe. But interestingly, there isn’t much in between if you look only at sinkerballers who don’t have especially good control.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hey, his last 4 starts have been extemely encouraging
He might be making said leap – or at least some decent progress – as we speak
Interesting thing to me is that if you look at the pitch f/x data, it looks like his release point is changing every game.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=6249&position=P&season=2009&date=2009-08-22&dh=0
it should also be noted that
every team Marquis has pitched on has made the playoffs (whether he was included on the roster or not is another thing, he’s at the least a good luck charm)
Then not such a good comp with Cahill!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hampton was one of the better pitchers in baseball for a long time
He had significantly below league average FIPs every year from 1995 till 2000. Im not sure that he is a good comp in terms of what kind production can be expected out of Gio. The reason I like the Zito comp is the high pitch counts (he’ll need 115 pitches to get through 6 sometimes), and the tendency to get just destroyed in outings where his command doesn’t show up (remember that opening day start against the Yankees in 06?) and sparkle in others when it is very on. Along with the Big Hook, Zito did have slightly more fastball velocity when he was younger than the 86mph version now and for his career Gio’s fastball is averaging 90.9 MPH (91.7 mph this year).
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 10:18 AM PDT reply actions
agreed
I would add that Zito’s FB during his Cy Young year was up around 91-92.
The bad part of that comparison is that Zito was a college pitcher and Gio is far younger than when Zito made it to the bigs.
What about our Ace Brett Tomko?
Looking at the comparisons I hope Anderson turns out better then Jon Lester and I think he and Cahill are the keepers of this group.
The starting rotation is the foundation of most winning teams and when the A’s have been good in the past the rotation was a big reason why.
I’d still like to see Beane add a veteran for next season so someone can take some of the pressure off and be a presence for this young group of pitchers to learn from. If he’s healty I think Tim Hudson would be perfect for the job.
I fear the Braves will exercise his option. I'd be all over Huddy if he's available
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Huddy invokes great memories
Loved that bulldog mentality.
Would be a great mentor to the youngsters, that’s for sure.
What does Poochini think?
Poochini is a bit overwhelmed by bulldogs,
and would like any beef, chicken, or pork you might wish to share.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, but how does he feel about seagull?
Inquiring minds want to know!
"Tonto think Billy Beane need to make team full of squirrels and bears."
by OptimistPrime on Aug 29, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
"tastes like chicken"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Darn I thought Tim was free and clear after this season.
Hopefully those Braves owners will want to spend their money on peach ice cream to beat the heat down there in Hotlanta instead of picking up his option.
What are your thoughts about Brad Lilly on a 1 year deal?
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Scratch that Brad Penny
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Penny kind of, uh, sucks
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Yea except he doesn't
but if you don’t want 2+ WAR starting pitchers that have a history of doing better than whatever.
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd like the A's to bring him in like, now.
He’d cost the minimum right now since he was released, and making sure that the MAC squad aren’t getting TJS or having shoulder issues anytime soon is a HUGE deal. Anderson screams “shut him down NOW, lost season”.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
THIS
i think he would have a hard time turning down the same money from a real playoff team though.
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Not when the A's play in pitcher's heaven.
Wanting a big(ger) FA payday and pitching in a park where pitchers come to thrive, and with a defensive infield of Ellis, Pennington, Kennedy, and Barton (all of them can play good defense at their positions). ERA-padding 101.
And the Mariners and Padres aren’t contending.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
he's been quoted as saying he'd like to go to a contender
but then, who wouldn’t?
Marty Lurie has also talked up Jennings, who was recently let go by Texas.
Honestly, agreed, anyone who can eat up innings is great at this point
For next year though, of course you want someone who can legitimately get outs, but this year, anyone who can eat innings and keep Anderson, Cahill, Bailey, and Mazzaro (to an extent)’s innings down is good.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Hudson's option is for 12 million, it wont happen.
Plus they already have their 5 starters for next year, Kenshin Kawakami, Javier Vazquez, J Jurjens, Derek Lowe and T Hanson. They don’t need Huddy for 12 million.
As I outlined in my fanpost a while back
the A’s should be willing to make a pretty sizable offer for Hudson to backstop the staff. I’d offer at least 4/28M or 3/24M, and might well be persuaded to go higher, assuming his medical reports check out fully.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
No but a sign and trade sounds reasonable to me if I were ATL
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
And Anderson's FB has been waaaay over 93 for much of the year
Scouting said that’s where his FB would be and it was there at the start of the year, but he’s been up around 95-96 and higher for the last 2 and a half months.
Radar Guns
The one via Comcast is 3-4 MPH’s too high every time I’ve seen it.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 30, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem is that Lilly threw harder,
topping out at 93MPH, which is just not Braden. But at this particular moment in the two careers, it might actually be a very good comp.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
that's true, Lilly throws harder
I only was referring to his bulldogginess – which Poochini rightly fears in the street, but I just love when I’m in the stands!
Simmons is going to need to make a
Mazzaro-esque leap if he’s going to be a factor, anyone know why he’s been so awful this year? He was actually supposed to be a factor in 09, but his bad performance at AAA put an end to that. I think if he rebounds well by May of next year he will be in the rotation. He was supposed to be a Huston Street style quick through the minors guy if you remember….
He's 22.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
The point is that at age 22
It’s far too early to start writing off someone’s career because of a bad year at AAA.
Why you think citing an exceedingly unusual career arc like Felix Hernandez in any way disproves that is unclear.
Comparing people to Felix Hernandez is pretty ridiculous.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Also: what about that 2011 bullpen?
-Mickey Storey was sent from A to AAA and promptly struck out 4 in his first 3 IP.
-Paul Smyth: 32IP 40K 4BB 0.00ERA in SS and A ball
-Chris Mederos: 21IP 26K 2BB
-Henry Rodriguez: the Gio of the pen 39IP 66K in AAA, horrible stats otherwise
Unless they're traded, it looks like the 2011 bullpen
could consist of a core of Bailey, Devine, Ziegler, Wuertz — all under contract through at least 2011. And that’s fine by me!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not Ziegler
I think he’s one of those guys, like Chad Bradford, who needs to move around a lot, between leagues, in order to keep hitters from figuring him out.
I also suspect the overuse of Wuertz this year will have dire consequences by 2011.
As a "4th righty" out of the pen, Ziggy would be pretty darn good, though.
I worry about Wuertz, too. Even HE complained about overuse at one point.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Has Kiko Calero esque elbow injury written all over him
thats what happens when all you throw is very very hard sliders.
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The use of Wuertz this season puzzles me,
because this is so evident, as are the fact that when healthy he’s very, very good, as is the fact that the A’s need him to be healthy/good in 2011 a lot more than they need him to be a workhorse in 2009. I don’t get why he was worked so hard, especially when it was already clear that the A’s weren’t going anywhere this season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Agreed. Bailey puzzles me more than Wuertz, honestly.
Bailey’s really, really good, but his IP totals are really high compared to the IP totals of other good closers/relief studs in the league. I’d think his arm is more important than Wuertz’s.
Now, I do realize that it is huge for the young pitchers that the pen be able to keep a lead handed to them, even in a lost season, but there’s a line.
Wuertz is good, but something screams “sell high”. This looks like a blatant career year for Wuertz. Let’s assume the Braves keep one of Soriano/Gonzalez (my guess = Soriano, because he’s better). There’s a lot of teams that need relief help, and not too many good relievers available via FA.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
a blatant career year?
why is it so obviously a career year? how do we know he’s not just that good, I mean teams have seen him two or three times and he’s still good, with a 50 percent swing and miss rate on his slider.
It's so hard to predict what a bullpen will look like in the future.
Relief pitchers can get hot one year and then be the worst pitcher ever the next. I think that’s why you want power arms in the bullpen if you can get them as a power pitcher at least can throw heat even if his other stuff isn’t working.
I’m hoping that Bailey turns out to be a long term answer at closer but really have the A’s had someone be the closer for say four years since Eck? My guess is that the bullpen in 2011 will feature at least 3 guys that aren’t on the team or in the A’s minor league system.
Totally agree.
A mark of a bad GM is overpaying for relief pitching. Outside of the elites (Mariano, Nathan, etc.), there isn’t much remaining.
Someone ask Omar Minaya how the K-Fail signing is going.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
*there isn't much worth paying for
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
BJ Ryan comes to mind
As do Danys Baez and Jamie Richmond
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Coco Cordero, even everyone's favorite Papelbon
And, of course, the god of flukes, Ryan Franklin.
I’d say the majority of all better relievers.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
What about Gray
He is in the mix also for 2011
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
you honestly the bullpen will consist of the same guys from 08/09?
Bullpens almost NEVER stay stagnant with the same players.
Generally, I think your guesses are ok....
Though Braden is going to have to learn to strike out a lot more batters to warrant a Ted Lilly comparison.
Mazzaro is going to have to add about 3 miles per hour to his fastball to be considered Bonderman. If you think that 3 MPHs don’t make a difference, then Gio’s comp would be Zito.
I like Cahill’s, Anderson’s, and Simmon’s comps.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I agree on Braden. My biggest hesitation on the Lilly comp
is that the K/9IP isn’t similar enough.
Mazzaro hits 93-94, though, and Bonderman wasn’t much different. Both relied too much on being a “power arm” to sustain much success.
Not only do the 3MPH make a difference with Gio/Zito, but also the changeup is a big part of Zito’s arsenal, whereas Gio is more “good fastball, great curve.” I chose Hampton because he’s been wildly inconsistent year to year, throws hard but not always enough strikes, and can be brilliant or awful. He’s probably the high end of Gio’s potential, but I still think that in terms of profile he’s a better fit than Zito.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The Hampton comp is an interesting one
But Hampton doesn’t really fit if you look at his pitch profile on fangraps Hampton only threw 89 going back to when they have data and throws his curve like 8% which is way way less than GIO METRO or Zito. He threw his slider and change about the same rate as his curve.
The Halos announcers sound like frat boys at a kegger… Ken Korach calls a game like a grown-ass man - Emperor Nobody
by designatedforassignment on Aug 29, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
2011
i would expect ross, capra, marks as potential options too, Mortensen maybe sooner.
What were your mlb comparisons for smith/eveland last yr?
I don't think I did them, but thinking back
I would probably have come up with something like:
Smith —> Mark Redman
Eveland —> Oliver Perez? Jeremy Sowers?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Anderson v Lester
When I first thought of Lester, for some reason I didn’t think that was a good comp for Anderson, and looking at it closer, I think it is only an okay comparison…
However when you look at the actual pitch selection you’ll notice that there is a fairly large difference in their secondary offering -
Anderson is using his curve in over a quarter of his pitches, while Lester throw the curve only 11% of the time, replacing it with a cutter.
Anderson certainly looks to have the ability to K batters like Lester, and has steadily improved on that all year, which is similar to what Lester did in 2008.
From a BB% perspective, Anderson has actually been slightly better than Lester so far in either of their careers, with Anderson at 2.54 BB/9, and Lester hovering around 2.8.
All in all, I’d say it is a decent comp.
The interesting thing about Lester, is how much he has actually changed his pitch selection this year from 2008. He really cut down on his fastball use, and started throwing the slider far more often.
by chri5 on Aug 29, 2009 2:30 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
more thoughts...
I wish there were daily graphs available for pitch selection on fangraphs by start in graph or table form. I’d be very interested to see if Anderson has done more than increase velo since he seemed to turn it around, like mixing in a third/fourth pitch more often.
It looks to me like the big change is that
Anderson’s slider is just exploding off the table late, more than it did in the first half of the season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
someone on the radio mentioned Bob Alejo's work with Anderson
having something to do with his extra “oomph”
if you ask Ken Rosenthal
He seems to think we are going to sign Brad Penny to a long term deal.
Why? Quite clearly he’s in the game of writing a baseball players name down then yelling out as many teams as he can after it, thats why.
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