FanPost

Post Signing Deadline DFA's Top 15 Prospect List

In a post signing deadline world I thought it would be nice to take a look at whats on the farm

  1. Chris Carter RF/1b/DH In a word… Beast.  His MLEs suggest that he would be put up a .758 OPS in the big leagues right now.  I believe that he can stick as a average to -5 FRAA right fielder which makes him more valuable from a positional prospective and I think his bat will be better than Wallace, due to his light tower plus plus power, his superior walk rate,  His defensive improvements at 1b are encouraging in case route running proves elusive.  I could see him hitting .280/.370/.520 if everything works out or 40 BRAA.  He has the highest upside in the system, and could be an truly elite player, though there is some risk that he won't be able to hit breaking balls in the bigs.
  2. Adrian Cardenas 2b/3b  Cardenas' tendency to struggle when promoted and then upon returning to the level dominating it, which seems to be reoccurring.  In the past month, Cardenas has a roughly calculated wOBA of .386 compared to a .336 league wOBA.  Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning but scouts say that he can hit .300 in his sleep so with his walk rate he becomes a very good player even without the power.  If he hits close to .300, he is a excellent candidate to hit something like .300/.375/.400 in the bigs which is good for about 25 BRAA.  His defense at third should be at least average once he learns the position. Essentially Cardenas isn't a bad bet to be a 4 WAR player once he gets settled in the bigs and could be up to a 5 WAR player.  That is a very good prospect with the chance to be one of those extraordinarily valuable players who gets absolutely no street cred.
  3. Brett Wallace 1b/3b/DH I don’t like putting him here and until his recent hot streak and Donaldson's slump, I had Donaldson in this position.  Defensive concerns with Wallace trouble me as does his low walk rate and his lack of production this year with the bat until the last two weeks.  Hopefully, the improved productions recently is a sign that Wallace was rushed all the way to AAA less than a year after he was drafted and has recently caught up.  His walk rate is very concerning as a pro.  During his junior year Wallace walked in 16.6% of his PAs in AAA it has been less than half that.  Defensively Wallace at 3b i think is at least a -10 FRAA from UZR.  I expect him to have a bad range number but good double play runs and error runs since Wallace has a strong accurate arm.  This would place his defensive comparable somewhere in the Ty Wiggington, Mark Teahen, and Josh Fields range. Putting up .280/.340/.480 line would give him about a .380 wOBA or about 25 BRAA.  Defense would probably take away 7.5 to 10 runs fielding projecting him to be a 3.5 WAR player.
  4. Josh Donaldson C/3b I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better, or if he hadn't decided to hit for a .445 OPS clip over the last two weeks he would be second on my list and right now he is still right on the border.  74BB to 75Ks on the year is very very impressive and allows him to be a very very very good baseball player. If he hits .270 in the bigs and maintains his even a decreased walk rate so that he has a .350 OBA and has only a .100 ISO (which is significantly bellow every career ISO he has had) he is going to be worth about +11 BRAA, which should more than make up for his bad defense at catcher making him almost a 3.5 WAR player.  If he is forced to move back to his college position at third base he won't get the positional bump but he should be able to provide league average defense there since reports were that he was a good fielder in college.  That way he loses 10 positional runs but gains +10 FRAA making the switch likely to have a negligible effect on his value.  He is slightly lower than Wallace because he has more risk.
  5. Jemile Weeks 2b Ridiculously hot start, slump, promotion, improvement after the slump is an interesting progression.  Reports of his defense have been significantly better than advertised coming out of Miami which increases his value significantly and will allow him to stay at 2b.  I am not as sold on his ability to hit for average as Cardenas, but he does share the excellent walk rate.  I see him as a .270/.350/.385 type player with a bunch of steals if he peaks right, which is certainly valuable.  One of the reasons why he is at #5 is that he relies on plus speed and has had a history of leg injuries both at Miami with his hamstrings and last year with the A's hurting his hip, which adds additional risk.
  6. Aaron Cunningham LF I’m not that high on him but will have a MLB career which is very valuable.  I expect him to be about a 2.5 WAR player as his good defense will cancel out most of the positional adjustment and he will have a slightly more than league average bat. I think his risk of flame out is low which is why he holds this position without much upside.
  7. Corey Brown CF Was progressing very nicely before the injuries.  His ability to hit for power and play good CF defense.  Brown could hit .260/.320/.480 or about 20 BRAA if he is able to carry forward the progress he has made cutting down the strikeouts.  That coupled with strong defense in center makes him could make him a good player going forward. That being said Brown presents a ton of risk and is kind of the opposite of Cunningham in a way.  Cunningham doesn't have a high ceiling but is going to have a hard time being terrible where as Corey Brown has a great chance of being terrible and a pretty good chance of being awesome coupled with a terrible chance of being ok.  That may be convoluted but thats why hes down in the seven spot rather than up around 3.
  8. Grant Green SS Being a good SS prospect is very valuable, but far too many questions to be any higher on the list without pro data looks like he could be slightly below average with the glove, average with the bat and a 2.5 WAR SS.  Scouts like him more than I do, which is a large part of the placement here.
  9. Anthony Capra P Not that high on him but at this point in the list everybody has some warts.  A 13 K/9 makes up for the 4.6 BB/9.  He has a plus change up that has become his strikeout pitch with an average fastball and an above average curve.  Early college use as a reliever and an appendectomy kept college mileage to a minimum on his arm and he is through the injury nexus which increases his chances of being healthy going forward.
  10. Sean Doolittle RF/1b was having an under rated year before the knee problem but should return strong. Doolittle is close to the majors which is a huge asset as is his defense which should be plus at two positions.  That plus a league average bat should be a 2 WAR ML as early as mid season next year with the potential to do more.
  11. Grant Desme RF Too many injuries and K’s but is destroying baseballs. I am not worried about his age as much as I am worried that health is a repeatable skill and Desme hasn't shown it so far.  That coupled with his seeming inability to hit breaking balls pushes him out of the top ten but he has a ton of potential.  Much like Corey Brown without the CF defense or the success in AA.
  12. Max Stassi C Has the tools to be an above average backstop with both the bat and the glove but high school catchers are usually terrible draft investments.  Scouts have compared him to Craig Biggio if he would have stuck at catcher, which I think is a little much, and that it is very very unlikely that Stassi ever produces a .400 wOBA.  However, average catching defense and an league average bat makes a catcher a more than a 3.2 WAR player.  The risk of bat or defensive failure put him at this position.
  13. James Simmons P Will play in the MLB which is very valuable in a prospect even with a Meh ceiling.  A Aaron Cunningham like prospect but as a pitcher there is significantly more risk of arm problems and unlike Cunningham who has excelled at every level of play so far, Simmons down year is concerning for someone whose biggest virtue is their near lock on being a back of the rotation starter and keeping you from spending tons of money on the back of the rotation filler of the world.
  14. Michael Ynoa P "Historic" level of talent is always good but when you couple that with the lack of MLB success that the big time Latin American bonus babies have had plus injury nexus which he is already suffering from makes me worried.
  15. Henry Rodriguez P Electric stuff but with a lack of control.  Henriguez destined for the bullpen which will limit his value.  Even good relievers are fairly fungible so while Henry may wind up a excellent power arm in the pen the
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