Post Signing Deadline DFA's Top 15 Prospect List
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 6:51 PM PDT
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PrintIn a post signing deadline world I thought it would be nice to take a look at whats on the farm
- Chris Carter RF/1b/DH In a word… Beast. His MLEs suggest that he would be put up a .758 OPS in the big leagues right now. I believe that he can stick as a average to -5 FRAA right fielder which makes him more valuable from a positional prospective and I think his bat will be better than Wallace, due to his light tower plus plus power, his superior walk rate, His defensive improvements at 1b are encouraging in case route running proves elusive. I could see him hitting .280/.370/.520 if everything works out or 40 BRAA. He has the highest upside in the system, and could be an truly elite player, though there is some risk that he won't be able to hit breaking balls in the bigs.
- Adrian Cardenas 2b/3b Cardenas' tendency to struggle when promoted and then upon returning to the level dominating it, which seems to be reoccurring. In the past month, Cardenas has a roughly calculated wOBA of .386 compared to a .336 league wOBA. Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning but scouts say that he can hit .300 in his sleep so with his walk rate he becomes a very good player even without the power. If he hits close to .300, he is a excellent candidate to hit something like .300/.375/.400 in the bigs which is good for about 25 BRAA. His defense at third should be at least average once he learns the position. Essentially Cardenas isn't a bad bet to be a 4 WAR player once he gets settled in the bigs and could be up to a 5 WAR player. That is a very good prospect with the chance to be one of those extraordinarily valuable players who gets absolutely no street cred.
- Brett Wallace 1b/3b/DH I don’t like putting him here and until his recent hot streak and Donaldson's slump, I had Donaldson in this position. Defensive concerns with Wallace trouble me as does his low walk rate and his lack of production this year with the bat until the last two weeks. Hopefully, the improved productions recently is a sign that Wallace was rushed all the way to AAA less than a year after he was drafted and has recently caught up. His walk rate is very concerning as a pro. During his junior year Wallace walked in 16.6% of his PAs in AAA it has been less than half that. Defensively Wallace at 3b i think is at least a -10 FRAA from UZR. I expect him to have a bad range number but good double play runs and error runs since Wallace has a strong accurate arm. This would place his defensive comparable somewhere in the Ty Wiggington, Mark Teahen, and Josh Fields range. Putting up .280/.340/.480 line would give him about a .380 wOBA or about 25 BRAA. Defense would probably take away 7.5 to 10 runs fielding projecting him to be a 3.5 WAR player.
- Josh Donaldson C/3b I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better, or if he hadn't decided to hit for a .445 OPS clip over the last two weeks he would be second on my list and right now he is still right on the border. 74BB to 75Ks on the year is very very impressive and allows him to be a very very very good baseball player. If he hits .270 in the bigs and maintains his even a decreased walk rate so that he has a .350 OBA and has only a .100 ISO (which is significantly bellow every career ISO he has had) he is going to be worth about +11 BRAA, which should more than make up for his bad defense at catcher making him almost a 3.5 WAR player. If he is forced to move back to his college position at third base he won't get the positional bump but he should be able to provide league average defense there since reports were that he was a good fielder in college. That way he loses 10 positional runs but gains +10 FRAA making the switch likely to have a negligible effect on his value. He is slightly lower than Wallace because he has more risk.
- Jemile Weeks 2b Ridiculously hot start, slump, promotion, improvement after the slump is an interesting progression. Reports of his defense have been significantly better than advertised coming out of Miami which increases his value significantly and will allow him to stay at 2b. I am not as sold on his ability to hit for average as Cardenas, but he does share the excellent walk rate. I see him as a .270/.350/.385 type player with a bunch of steals if he peaks right, which is certainly valuable. One of the reasons why he is at #5 is that he relies on plus speed and has had a history of leg injuries both at Miami with his hamstrings and last year with the A's hurting his hip, which adds additional risk.
- Aaron Cunningham LF I’m not that high on him but will have a MLB career which is very valuable. I expect him to be about a 2.5 WAR player as his good defense will cancel out most of the positional adjustment and he will have a slightly more than league average bat. I think his risk of flame out is low which is why he holds this position without much upside.
- Corey Brown CF Was progressing very nicely before the injuries. His ability to hit for power and play good CF defense. Brown could hit .260/.320/.480 or about 20 BRAA if he is able to carry forward the progress he has made cutting down the strikeouts. That coupled with strong defense in center makes him could make him a good player going forward. That being said Brown presents a ton of risk and is kind of the opposite of Cunningham in a way. Cunningham doesn't have a high ceiling but is going to have a hard time being terrible where as Corey Brown has a great chance of being terrible and a pretty good chance of being awesome coupled with a terrible chance of being ok. That may be convoluted but thats why hes down in the seven spot rather than up around 3.
- Grant Green SS Being a good SS prospect is very valuable, but far too many questions to be any higher on the list without pro data looks like he could be slightly below average with the glove, average with the bat and a 2.5 WAR SS. Scouts like him more than I do, which is a large part of the placement here.
- Anthony Capra P Not that high on him but at this point in the list everybody has some warts. A 13 K/9 makes up for the 4.6 BB/9. He has a plus change up that has become his strikeout pitch with an average fastball and an above average curve. Early college use as a reliever and an appendectomy kept college mileage to a minimum on his arm and he is through the injury nexus which increases his chances of being healthy going forward.
- Sean Doolittle RF/1b was having an under rated year before the knee problem but should return strong. Doolittle is close to the majors which is a huge asset as is his defense which should be plus at two positions. That plus a league average bat should be a 2 WAR ML as early as mid season next year with the potential to do more.
- Grant Desme RF Too many injuries and K’s but is destroying baseballs. I am not worried about his age as much as I am worried that health is a repeatable skill and Desme hasn't shown it so far. That coupled with his seeming inability to hit breaking balls pushes him out of the top ten but he has a ton of potential. Much like Corey Brown without the CF defense or the success in AA.
- Max Stassi C Has the tools to be an above average backstop with both the bat and the glove but high school catchers are usually terrible draft investments. Scouts have compared him to Craig Biggio if he would have stuck at catcher, which I think is a little much, and that it is very very unlikely that Stassi ever produces a .400 wOBA. However, average catching defense and an league average bat makes a catcher a more than a 3.2 WAR player. The risk of bat or defensive failure put him at this position.
- James Simmons P Will play in the MLB which is very valuable in a prospect even with a Meh ceiling. A Aaron Cunningham like prospect but as a pitcher there is significantly more risk of arm problems and unlike Cunningham who has excelled at every level of play so far, Simmons down year is concerning for someone whose biggest virtue is their near lock on being a back of the rotation starter and keeping you from spending tons of money on the back of the rotation filler of the world.
- Michael Ynoa P "Historic" level of talent is always good but when you couple that with the lack of MLB success that the big time Latin American bonus babies have had plus injury nexus which he is already suffering from makes me worried.
- Henry Rodriguez P Electric stuff but with a lack of control. Henriguez destined for the bullpen which will limit his value. Even good relievers are fairly fungible so while Henry may wind up a excellent power arm in the pen the
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This is my list.
- 1B/DH/OF — Chris Carter
- 3B/1B/DH — Brett Wallace
- 2B/3B/SS — Adrian Cardenas
- 2B — Jemile Weeks
- OF — Aaron Cunningham
- OF — Grant Desme
- SS — Grant Green
- OF — Corey Brown
- LHP — Anthony Capra
- RHP — Michael Ynoa
- C/3B — Josh Donaldson
- 1B/OF — Sean Doolittle
- C — Max Stassi
- RHP — James Simmons
- RHP — Henry Rodriguez
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2009 7:03 PM PDT reply actions
I think you criminally underrate Donaldson
and your preference for players who have been hurt is unwise in my view
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow
You’re incredibly sour on Weeks. .270/.350/.385?
Wow.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I guess his ISO is low but it I don't think that is that unreasonable.
With good D that still makes him a valuable player. I mean he is only putting up an ISO of .100 in Midland and only put up a .100 ISO in Kane County (SSS I know). His ISO in the California League was .169 which means that park adjusted it was .153. Weeks level of power was unexpected. I think that is a low end projection but I think that isn’t that sour.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not the power
Though, I do think he can easily crack .400….he’s got a quick, line drive stroke that will result in a lot of doubles.
He’s got great strike zone judgment, though, and while he will strike out a little, it’s nothing excessive.
I could easily see a few .290/.370/.430 years from Weeks. Maybe I’m just too high on him. I don’t know.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
That is certainly a viable outcome
I would put mine at the bottom of what I believe is a reasonable projection of him and yours at the upper end. I don’t hear hes a lock to hit .300 like I do with Cardenas, or even that hes a lock to hit well for average, so I discounted it. This year has made it hard to judge him with his ridiculous hot streak, subsequent slump and then his promotion.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I've said it before
But I see him as basically a clone of Brian Roberts.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I would take that
Gold Glove D, world class speed and some pop
sign me up
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
I think thats a little optimistic but if everything breaks his way maybe thats his ceiling.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
After seeing him play in person
I’m sold. The boy can absolutely smoke the ball with his bat and his swing looks “big league” already. He will have his share of “k’s” for sure and his health is a concern.
However, when you see this kid play, “electricity” is what comes to mind….he just oozes “sizzle”.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Good to know
You do that and pretty soon your world turns into some kind of crazy postmodernist dystopian nightmare where nothing is actually true anymore. - Paul Thomas
by designatedforassignment on Aug 24, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm also high on Donaldson
But if Suzuki continues to be the player that he is, or even improves which is a very real possibility, then we need to figure out where Donaldson goes. You mentioned 3B but it’s looking like either Wallace or Cardenas will be there and then 1B will be manned by either Barton, Carter, or Doolittle. I know that injuries or ineffectiveness will most likely solve this problem but it’s still something to think about.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
I dont think Zook
will ever be better than 280-290 with about 10-15 jacks. Playing GG Defense and call ing great games
HILLIS
That's pretty damn good for a catcher.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Nice List
I wouldn’t quibble with too much but I have a couple of points.
I agree that the poor walk rate that Wallace has shown thus far is a cause for concern and I think too many people just dismiss it when talking about him and assume he will be a walk machine. That said I might not have dinged him as much as you do for the lack of walks because I think he was rushed and there is some reason to hope that he will revert back towards his college ways in regards to plate discipline. Because of this and the fact that scouts like his swing as much as Cardenas’ only with added power I would probably slot Wallace in at 2.
I think the placement of Desme is about right but I had always heard that he was projected to stay in CF and has a shot to be above average there. Unless you have heard different things I would think he is equally as valuable defensively as Corey Brown.
Lastly I think I would knock Rodriguez off the list and slide Tyson Ross into that spot, or maybe Sam Demel. But at that point I think it becomes mostly a matter of taste.
All in all a good list with logical reasoning.
+1 on Demel
I think he’s got a high floor and he seems like a good prospect. Much more certain than Rodriguez.
"Surely these gents are talking about the dashing rookie campaign of southpaw Jamie Moyer. Now, that cat is on the up and up." JLaff, in 1929.
Ross would have been 16 for me
his FIP has been not very good and I am concerned about his mechanics, hes a time bomb waiting to happen.
As for Desme, he is lower on the totem poll for me than Brown due to Brown’s level and his improvement on his Ks these years. I have read that he has a very strong arm but that he is best suited for RF.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions
If Desme's bat stays close to what is is now
It can play at any of the OF positions
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Aug 19, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Thats the $64,000 question
will he be able to hold this level of production as he faces better breaking pitches in AA.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He can't really recognize breaking pitches where he is now
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I know but well see if hes able to grow and have better pitch recognition.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Anybody know anything about
Kenny Smalley?
"Surely these gents are talking about the dashing rookie campaign of southpaw Jamie Moyer. Now, that cat is on the up and up." JLaff, in 1929.
Melissa Lockard had a chat yesterday
In which I was able to get several questions answered. I asked about Storey and Smalley. Here’s what she said:
Storey is having an unbelievable year, so much so that his rough outing last week against San Jose was a huge shock. He has a terrific curveball that sits anywhere from 69-73 MPH and when that is teamed with a 88-90 MPH fastball and a change-up in the low-80s/high-70s, it can be very difficult for hitters to handle. In his brief stay in Sacramento, he had Triple-A hitters bailing out of there like crazy.
Smalley has been a starter this season, but he throws harder out of the bullpen, so that may be his ultimate destination. He has a very good change-up, which is his best pitch, and good command of his pitches. Out of the bullpen, his fastball touched 92-93, but as a starter, he is more in the high-80s range.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
hitters only
1. Carter-Ryan Howard can’t hit breaking balls, he gets thrown mostly breaking balls, and he puts up big numbers.
2. Wallace-BBs are a bit concerning. He’s been moved faster than everyone in that draft class except Beckam. Smoak isn’t hitting in AAA… Not worried.
3. Cardenas
…..
4. Green-Not all that wild about the remaining guys.
5. Weeks-I agree with what you said.
6. Donaldson-Why is he going to hit .270 in the majors when that’s what he’s hit in the minors?
7. Cunningham-His defense is not good, maybe it will get better. 2.5 war is a stretch.
8. Stassi
9. Doolittle
10. Desme-Can be a very useful platoon bat/glove even if he strikes out 50% against RHPs
11. Brown-Could go either way. I guess I like “injured last year” better than “injured this year.”
12. Spencer-He’s never impressed me, but he’s been unbelievably hot. Excellent numbers this year.
12. Peterson-very good arl
13. Barfield
14. Sulentic
15. Coleman
16. Crumbliss
17. Leyja
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
17 hitters, no Rashun Dixon?
How the mighty have fallen.
I’d put him at least over Barfield, Sulentic, Crumbliss and Leyja (not Coleman, who should be much higher because he’s a solid defensive shortstop). He’s almost like a Latin prospect with how young and raw he is. You can’t take his straight hitting line completely at face value.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
that's reasonable; I just started listing people at the end...
I don’t think he’s obviously a better prospect than any of those guys though.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Dude k's in 40% of his PAs
Thats a good reason to put him way down the list. I think he has a lot of rookie ball mirage in his 2008 numbers which got him way over hyped. But I would definately put him ahead of Sulentic, Crumbliss and Barfield.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions
You have him reasonably high
but I think people REALLY underrate cunningham. He’s OPSed .882 or higher every year since his 20th birthday, and he’s a plus defender as a corner OF. If it were not for a few pretty bad cups of coffee I wonder what people would think of him.
He gets knocked
For not standing out in one area.
But hey, Jason Bay doesn’t either. Not that I’m saying he’ll be Jason Bay, but yeah.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Jason Bay is a horrible horrible defender though and has a much better bat.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Not that I’m saying he’ll be Jason Bay, but yeah.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I know
I was saying that bay has a very weak arm and isn’t fast and his bat is an above average tool
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 5:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Well add two more home runs for wallace.....
That’s 5 in the last 4 games, if I am not mistaken. I understand, dfa, that you are not as high on Wallace do to your belief that he will not stick at third- But I think you are underselling the bat. Don’t lose sight of the fact that he has been rushed, through the minors, and therefore has not consistently shown the type of plate patience and power that he was considered to have coming out of college. This recent surge in power may serve as an indication that he is finally catching up to his level- and, if so, the early results are good.
Huh... now Ynoa's starting to get UNDERrated...
The A’s are taking a kid-glove approach with him, but I completely endorse said approach. He shouldn’t throw more than a couple of hundred innings (at most) before his 20th birthday.
Anyway, my initial pass at a list would be something like this:
1. Carter
2. Cardenas
3. Wallace
4. Weeks
5. Cunningham
6. Brown
7. Ynoa
8. Doolittle
9. Donaldson
10. De los Santos
11. Green
12. Simmons
13. Coleman
14. Desme
15. Capra
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
re
This is about what my list is too, although I have Brown lower and Simmons higher. Simmons was the 15th youngest player in AAA to start the season. It’s a consolidation season.
by AgitationStation on Aug 19, 2009 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Why so low on Donaldson?
I was never a big Ynoa booster to start out with considering the success rate of LA signings and with him already having arm problems. I think the probability of success is low even though I am encouraged by the approach the A’s are taking.
DLS concerns me since he was having trouble coming back from TJ and was shut down.
Coleman doesn’t scare you with his K’s?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Donaldson confuses the hell out of me as a player
He’s never been the same guy at two consecutive stops.
DLS has started pitching again and is putting the ball in the strike zone, which encourages me. If he can get healthy, he immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in the system.
Of course Coleman’s Ks are scary, but he’s a solid defensive shortstop with power. Looks a lot like pre-collapse Khalil Greene to me, which is fine.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+1
FDLS was rated higher than Anderson and Cahill in some circles before the injury last year. If he’s healthy and back at 100%, he’s definitely the top pitching prospect and probably top five overall in the A’s organization.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
I cant in good conscious rank someone who is coming back of of TJ and then gets shut down after two starts that high
That being said I think that there is a pretty chance that he recovers well enough that coupled with some promotions that he is the number 2 A’s prospect this time next year.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Like I said, though, he's started pitching again
so apparently the setback wasn’t too serious.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Right I know he had but I need to see more than 11 days and 4 innings to put him up there considering he was shut down
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Donaldson is very confusing, but, like Doolittle, he's shown different abilities at different levels
and if he can somehow put them all together, he’ll make an excellent hitter at a premium position (assuming his glove plays at C).
I guess the primary difference is that with Doolittle there’s been available explanations as to why his numbers have jumped around, e.g., he was a two way player at UVA, he tried to add some loft to his swing, etc., whereas with Donaldson it’s a bit of a mystery.
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 21, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Brown 6 and Desme 14 seems a bit odd...
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Brown is more advanced
And cut his K rate.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
not for very long, and his K rate last year was a good bit higher than Desme's high K rate this year....
I don’t have any problem putting Brown higher, but there’s really no reason to like him a lot better. Desme gets more steals, probably a better defender…
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I agree with this
Brown is kind of an interesting case due to his injury problems this year. Do you buy his better production at AA as legitimate improvement and now he is working to recover from injury, or was he just on a hot streak and got hurt before he could regress which is happening now? I don’t really have an answer for that but I think that Desme is performing better at A+ than Brown did last summer.
I also kind of have an unsubstantiated theory that power hitters will see a bit of K-rate spike at Stockton due to the short fences and altogether offensive nature of the Cal league. Although it is mostly observational thought at this point and Desme had about the same K-rate down in Kane County.
I can definitely buy Brown being rated higher than Desme but they are pretty close in my book.
An interesting question for sure.
I think that Brown’s progression was for the most part real and 32 ABs coming off injury really shouldn’t be fretted about too much, which is the reason why he ranks higher than Desme does.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Where are you getting the better defender bit?
Desme is playing RF Brown is playing CF which is worth 10 runs right there.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions
re
Desme has played 74 games in CF this year, over twice as many as in RF (and in Stockton he’s played almost exclusively CF.)
by AgitationStation on Aug 19, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions
basically just that my impression is that he's a bit faster (which might not be right)
and not much to go on otherwise.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Call it a hunch, then
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It makes sense to me
Desme is the flavor of the month, but Brown is the more advanced hitter, and plays a passable (perhaps even better than that) CF. Desme is a corner OF oozing with potential, but health concerns, and the inability to make consistent contact, keep his stock down.
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 21, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice Work
As always, Designated, I like your work. Where do you get the minor league defensive stats? I’d be interested in seeing that info.
As far as the prospects, I like the first 4. I’ve seen three of the four play, I haven’t seen Wallace yet. I like Donaldson’s hustle. He’s a real gamer, Jason Kendall type player. Cardenas has picked it up a bit with the bat, but I’m more impressed by Carter and by Wallace’s numbers. Carter can hit a long way and he looks like Jermaine Dye in build. I would have Matt Spencer on the list somewhere, he doesn’t walk much, but he can hit and he’s pretty athletic for a big man. I have to figure he could possibly hit at least as well as Sweeney. I’m not sold yet on Henry Rodriguez. He can throw hard, but I don’t know about his passion for the game.
I’m also intrigued by Kilby and Peterson and would consider them for the list.
All in all, good work on your part as always
Why can't we all equally love the prospects?
-The dude responsible for this mess
Proud member of the "Don't Trade Marleau" Club
Some are better than others, of course.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
You love your prospects based on skill?!
-The dude responsible for this mess
Proud member of the "Don't Trade Marleau" Club
I love my prospects based on what I can rhyme with there last names but that's just me
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
If only our scouts could find the next Kirby Puckett.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
No equal shmequal
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
All prospects are equal, but some are more equal than others
—Dusty Napoleon
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He can't still be in the system, can he
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 20, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Jesus his ISOs are bad
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Tyreace House's Isop
Last I checked, it was 0.
"Surely these gents are talking about the dashing rookie campaign of southpaw Jamie Moyer. Now, that cat is on the up and up." JLaff, in 1929.
That's not how MLEs work
His MLEs suggest that he would be put up a .758 OPS in the big leagues right now.
MLEs are not projections; they simply translate a batting line to a different league (MLB) and park (neutral). Carter’s 2009 batting line in AA translates to a .758 MLE OPS based solely on his 461 AB this year.
Projections use multiple years of data, regressions, age adjustments, and whatever other factors one applies. When you talk about what Carter would do in the majors, you’re talking about a projection.
Thanks the language was sloppy I appreciate you pointing it out.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think translation is accurate either
MLEs take performances in the 2 leagues and mathematically adjusts the minor league number. The odds on it matching individuals is quite small. Some players will hit near their minor league levels, some not. Some even do better in the majors. A projection isn’t required to use the stuff you talk about. If you want to go by dictionary definitions, I’d say projection would be more accurate language.
My guess is that it projects a probability distribution (say, a skewed gaussian curve, with more area under the curve towards the bust/left side than the star/right side), and then picks the maximum/most probable point and spits out those numbers. So depending on how tight the projection is, they can be more or less likely to hit around their MLE.
My point was more that
we tend to assume any breakout season from a young prospect is a sure sign the kid has reached a new level of talent. We tend to assume the kid will continue to improve off of the breakout year, putting up similar numbers at a higher level the next year. But, as is also the case when established major leaguers have a huge year, often it’s just a player playing above his abilities.
Here are Carter’s MLE OPS over the past 3 years (according to minorleaguesplits.com):
2007: .570
2008: .593
2009: .762
It’s certainly possible that Carter has taken a great leap forward, and that 2009 represents his true ability. More likely, however, is that he’s improved his true talent some AND he’s playing a bit over his head. His projections for 2010 will likely not be as good as his 2009 season, as the age adjustment won’t quite balance out the regression towards his past performance.
Good argument for keeping Carter in AAA next season
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Good list, though I'd probably have Ynoa and Simmons higher
A lot of people are down on Simmons because he has been somewhat disappointing this year, but his FIP suggests he hasn’t been as bad as his 5.00+ ERA says he is. If you want to know what kind of player Simmons might turn out to be, look no further than Joe Blanton. Their minor league numbers are pretty similar. Neither are overpowering, both are hittable, but both have very good control. Simmons should be a pretty valuable player down the road.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Blanton had his curveball which was an above average pitch
Simmons does not. He has a average fastball, plus change up, and a mediocre slider with plus control. Blanton had way better raw stuff.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Very early in his career, maybe.
Sickels wrote this about him:
[In 2002] scouts liked his arm strength a great deal, as he showed a fastball that could hit 95 MPH. His breaking stuff was promising but erratic…[Later, in 2004] he continued to refine his curveball, slider, and changeup, but he lost some velocity on his fastball, as it dipped into the 88-92 MPH range. [And finally] Blanton’s made a complete transition from raw thrower his first two years of college, to pure pitcher in the majors.
Simmons change is probably much better than Blanton’s, just as Blanton’s breaking balls are much better than Simmons’. Melissa Lockard said, “[Simmons] has made strides with his off-speed stuff this season, although the results have been very uneven.” In the end, I imagine them being near identical pitchers—but that’s just me.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
You can't throw everything on one plane which is why having a good curveball/slider/forkball is so important
Simmons relies almost exclusively on changing speeds and location but there is little plane changing because his slider (i think he scrapped the curve and is going with a slider now but im not 100% on that). Without changing planes its hard to last multiple times through the order.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions
It isn't strictly dependent on that.
Look at their stats.
Blanton’s year at AAA: 10.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9
Simmons year at AA: 9.9 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9
Obviously, they’re in different leagues when they put these stats up, but those stats are too weirdly similar, IMO. Stuff-wise, maybe not, but in terms of their style of pitching and how they become successful, I’d say Blanton/Simmons is a pretty good comp.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
How did you choose those two years? Are these both their third year as a pro? The same age season (each is 21?)? Otherwise this reeks of cherry-picking to me.
I hate changing planes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Blanton was 23, but that's when his velocity dropped and he became more of a pitch-to-contact type guy
Simmons was 21. It was his first full season. It was Blanton’s second, but, like I said, his first as a control guy.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Here's my list!
I felt left out so I made a list too. Unfortunately I only got through the Oakland and Sacramento rosters…and I didn’t even get through the Sac roster because once I hit 15 people I got lazy and stopped to make a sandwich.
So, without further adieu, the top 15 prospects with Oakland and most of AAA:
1) Brett Wallace 3B/1B
2) Adrian Cardenas 2B/3B/SS
3) Aaron Cunningham OF
4) Tommy Everidge 1B
5) Clayton Mortensen SP
6) James Simmons SP
7) Jeff Gray RP
8) Brad Kilby RP
9) Eric Patterson 2B/LF
10) Joel Galarraga C
11) Anthony Recker C
12) Chris Denorfia OF
13) Gregorio Petit SS
14) Yung Chi Chen 2B
15) Jeff Baisley 3B
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
Most important question: What kind of sandwich?
On your list I think Everidge is too high should be behind Simmons and Mortensen. Pennington needs to be on it and I would put him a head of Mortensen. I would have Petit way higher and Recker lower.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Tuna Salad
1)I agree about Everidge, I was distracted by my sandwich.
2) Pennington has passed 130 at bats which means he is no longer rookie elegable for next year and has lost his prospect status.
3) I like Recker and think Petit is good defensively, but couldn’t whit a whiffle ball with a bat so I like where they are.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Aug 20, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I try to avoid tuna sice there are only twelve left
Why do you like Recker? It seems like his poor defense prevents a career backup C and his bat isn’t that good. Galaraga would be a better prospect in my eyes.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 5:30 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Anyone know what his issue this season was?
He went on the DL in mid-May and hasn’t been seen, heard or tasted since.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Can I try this another way:
Players who I would most like to see pan out:
1. Chris Carter- The A’s have lacked that middle of the order 30-35+ home run bat for too long.
2. Brett Wallace- ditto with Wallace. Whether he plays 3B, 1B, or DH, he represents our next best bet to turn into a 30+ home run threat.
3. Jemile Weeks- He land third on this list because of the fact that he represents someone 25-30 SB potential who will get on-base, doesn’t strikeout a lot, and has 10-15 HR potential. He projects to be a prototypical lead off man.
4. Adrian Cardenas- in the same way Weeks is a prototypical lead off man; Cardenas is a prototypical number 2 hitter who is a pretty much a sure bet to hit .300+ while drawing a fair amount of walks, hit 10-15+ HR’s and steal 15+ bases. You can see the effect Rajai Davis and Adam Kennedy are having on our offense, when we lack middle of the order bats. Imagine if we were able to install more talented versions of those players- in Weeks and Cardenas- at the top of our future lineup.
5. Corey Brown- he is someone who could potentially turn into someone who hits for a decent average .260-.280 while drawing a lot of walks, hitting 25+ HR’s and stealing 25+ bases- while playing an above average centerfield. If he reaches his potential you could argue that he is more valuable than anybody on this list. Age and strikeout issues temper expectations that he will in fact reach his full potential.
6. Grant Desme- If one of C. Brown or Desme pans out, and reaches there full potential- we could have a dynamic CF option similar to likes of a Grady Sizemore. But don’t count on it.
7. Grant Green- You could argue that he should be higher on this list, given that the A’s have lacked a consistent above average SS since Tejada. But if the names above pan out, the need for a potential impact bat, at SS, would not be as important and therefore you could comfortably slot in a SS who plays excellent D and is serviceable with the bat- could that be Pennington?
8. Michael Ynoa- His potential is, no doubt, greater than any other player on this list. But his expected rival is years from now, and the A’s already have the makings of one of the best young staffs in the MLB.
9. Aaron Cunningham- He does not have a type of ceiling that is comparable to the other 8 players listed before him, but he does represent a safer bet to become a quality MLB left fielder. His importance in developing into that is to serve as a safeguard option when some of our more talented OF prospects ultimately fail to reach there potential.
10. Tyson Ross- people tend to downgrade him because of his weird mechanics. But don’t ignore the fact that he possesses an impressive reportoire of stuff that could make him a top-quality starting pitcher or a shutdown pitcher out of the pen. He holds a lot of value as someone who could step in if one of our top 5 young pitchers inevitably gets injured or fails to pan out as expected.
11. Sean Doolittle- he seems to be someone who should be highly versatile, defensively, and play above-average to plus defensively in multiple spots. He could turn into a nick swisher like player and, if he does, he should find a starting spot in the A’s lineup.
12. Josh Donaldson- he has an intriguing bat and seems to be Daric Barton-like in his control of the strikezone- except he can potentially be slotted in at Catcher or 3B. Maybe he should be higher, but I personally hope Suzuki man’s the catcher position at least until Stassi is ready (maybe that is wishful thinking).
13. Fautino De Los Santos- lost time due to TJS cloud his future. But given the fact that the A’s appear set, in terms of SP’s, at the major league level; The A’s can take their time with FDLS and see if he can still develop into that potential frontline starter. If not, they can fasttrack him and he still holds value as a potential shutdown closer.
14. James Simmons- to me he represents the Aaron Cunningham of SP prospects who has a good chance at becoming a quality 4-5 innings eater who will fill in if one of our top starters goes down.
15. Max Stassi- His potential as an impact bat- at catcher- in enticing and if he reaches his potential, he could be a potential allstar. With Suzuki and Donaldson in the fold, there is less of a need for him to pan out. But anytime you have a potential allstar, in your system, you want to see him pan out and who knows what the catching situation will be 4-5 years down the road.
by MAC Attack on Aug 19, 2009 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
How are you defining want to succeed?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions
15 year Hall of Fame career
all with the A’s.
Oh, and a Tim Wakefield-esque contract.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Thats defining success
defining who I “want to succeed” is different. Is that players that I like more than I objectively should? Or players that if they reach their ceilings are the best?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
If it's "desire to see succeed"
I’d probably put Ynoa, like, number 1, since his perceived upside is something like Pedro at his peak.
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 20, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Corey Brown
Age and strikeout issues temper expectations that he will in fact reach his full potential.
I know they are not at all comparable players, but that statement sounds similar to Ryan Howard as a Minor Leaguer.
"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be." -- Peter Gibbons
No one is allowed to compare any prospects to Ryan Howard
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 20, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
2012?
1B: Carter
2B: Cardenas
SS: Green
3B: Wallace
C: Suzuki
LF: Donaldson
CF: Weeks
RF: Brown
DH: Dolittle
I don't think that is even close
C Donaldson
1b Wallace
2b Weeks
3b Cardenas
SS Green
RF Desme
CF Brown
LF Carter
DH Barton
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd think Barton
Stands a better chance of being an acceptable LFer than Carter but maybe I’m wrong.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Aug 20, 2009 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think that is wrong
Carter is way faster than Barton.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Barton at DH?
Flip Barton and Wallace around… but I bet Doolittle is at first anyway.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I think Suzuki will still be the A's catcher in 2012
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Two questions
Why do you always reply three comments down from the comment that you are actually replying to?
Why do you believe Suzuki will still be here?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Two answers:
1. Always = / = Once in a while.
2. I think the A’s will work out an extension this off-season for Suzuki (and probably no one else), and I think it’s likely they will keep him 3+ more years into the contract.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You don't think that having three starting caliber Cs is going to lead to 2 being traded
especially with Stassi and Ortiz waiting in the wings?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
The A's have 3 starting caliber Cs?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
In 2012 Donaldson Powell and Suzuki should be starting quality
I would expect Powell to be traded but he probably has less trade value than value as a back up, having Donaldson and Suzuki at that point makes no sense unless you have the need for Donaldson at 3b.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
re
1 Suzuki isn’t going to command an overly expensive extension.
2 MLB teams clearly look at catchers in a completely different way than sabremetricians.
by AgitationStation on Aug 20, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder if #2 is related to the fact that
sabermetricians haven’t yet developed a measurement of catcher defense that they’re satisfied with.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I don't see Powell's health holding up for him
ever to be a starting catcher.
I think Donaldson’s defense is likely to preclude him being a starting catcher; I love the guy but see him ultimately either at 3B, or in a versatile “super-utility / platoon” role.
Stassi will be only 21 in 2012 and at most would be coming up to be a backup/apprentice.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's why they likely wouldn't trade Powell
I don’t see Donaldson’s defense being that great an issue. It is hard to say without good measures of catcher defense. However, Donaldson’s projected OBP alone is worth a little less than 20 runs more than Kurt’s. What are you going to value Suzuki’s defense.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 5:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The measures I've seen (however imperfect) of Suzuki's defense have him in the 5<10 range
If Donaldson is a bad defender, that 20 runs (actually more like 15 since catchers don’t play every day) could be made up through defense.
Also, where are you getting this projection from?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That was supposed to be 5 < x < 10
I think we all know that five is less than ten.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
There you go again,
repeating the group-think conventional wisdom as if it’s fact. You say that “we all know” that five is less than ten, but we only believe it because that’s what all the math commentators have been telling us all our lives. But where’s the proof? Five is only “less than” ten because we’ve chosen to define it that way as part of our model. The conclusion is only as good as the assumptions that go into it.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
made me smile
you’re a true sabermetrician at hear, iglew
No no
A true sabermetrician wouldn’t ask if 5 is less than 10, but whether 5’s true talent is less than 10’s. If so, he’d then want to know how sure he could be of the statement.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Above I projected Donaldson as a .354 wOBA
From his slash numbers and if Suzuki is a.320 wOBA then their offensive runs difference is about 18 runs.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 6:39 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Whay do you mean by number two
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 5:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Usually it means "poopies"
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
re
Mlb clubs place tremendous value on a catcher’s defense and intangibles (leadership, managing a staff…). Guys like Brad Ausmus don’t stick around forever by accident.
by AgitationStation on Aug 20, 2009 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I expect Donaldson to improve some as well
He’s only been a full time catcher for two years and catching is the hardest position to play. I think thy the other thing is that if you are a +10 run defensive catcher then you can be -22.5 runs with the bat and still be a league average player which is a .286 wOBA. Also I think the perception that crappy hitters can play forever at catcher is also because of the physical toll that catching takes on the body (hell it was giving my knees problems in HS due to poor coaching) which deteriorates the body to the point that if you can hit you are moved to a position that preserves your bat better.
I would also caution against using my values as a proxy for what sabr people think. You’ll probably find a lot of sabr people that think that Donaldson won’t make it or be as good as Suzuki.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 6:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I just don't see how Donaldson is anything close to a sure thing
especially as a catcher. I think he’s more likely to break in as a 3B, because he lacks the glove for catching and the bat for 1B.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That's my feeling --
Maybe a 3Bman who also gives you a third catcher and who can play some 1B if your regular guy dives into a pool.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sure thing no
But I think his bat makes him as valuable as Suzuki’s defense makes him. Again I believe that even a position switch retains his value due to the difference btween 3rd and C being made up by his d not sucking at 3rd
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 6:57 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Couldn't they just go down to Big 5 or Dick's Sporting Goods
and buy him a glove?
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
There is no Big 5 in Midland, Texas
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Wallace doesn't have a lot of range but neither does Barton
and Wallace is very good with what he actually gets to and his foot work is very good. I consider them to be pretty interchangeable defensively so if you want to put Wallace at DH thats fine.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Good list...
Curious….where do you see Barton on that list? Can we even still consider him a prospect?
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
Hes not a prospect in the official sense
since hes had more than 130 PAs. If he was eligible I would probably put him right above Doolittle but not by much.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Donaldson so good
I think Donaldson is really going to be a good pro ball player. I wouldn’t be surprised if he became a top 5 hitting catcher in baseball.
No one thought Matt Spencer deserved a number on the list eh?
DLS and Spencer were both oversights
DLS would be 15 Spencer would be 16 Coleman would be 17 Ross would be 18
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions
spencer vs wallace
If you compare Spencer vs Wallace and flip back between the two pages its pretty interesting.
They both went to ASU and there are some other similarities.
Anyway have a look and see what you think.
alright
That was a little too much beating around the bush…I am going to call you out on your post.
Brett Wallace at #3 and Matt Spencer at #16 means you didn’t do a thorough look at the numbers before you posted. Both players have very similar hitting numbers. Spencer has demonstrated a better ability to hit for power—by rate stats—with more doubles and HRs by rate. Wallace has more singles and less Ks. Everything else is pretty much the same.
I know Wallace has hit at AAA, but no one says Spencer couldn’t hit at the same level. From a numbers stand point, Spencer belongs at AAA. Both are the same age.
Gauntlet down
Im going to use that gauntlet to smack you in the face... don't be mad if you lose a tooth or two
The idea that I haven’t looked the numbers before I posted is laughable considering that I projected out almost all of my prospects to slash stats, FRAA, BRAA, and WAR and my reputation around this site. If you read my post you can see that I place an emphasis on defensive value, player like Cardenas and Donaldson received significant boosts compared to better hitting prospects because of their ability to play premium positions. Not only is Spencer not able to play premium defensive positions, he is not able to play corner OF or 1b well. Spencer’s lack of defensive upside means that to be a MLB average 2 WAR player, he needs to hit between 12.5 to 17.5 runs above average just due to his defense. Being 23 and starting the season in A+ ball doesn’t help your offensive projections either. Since hes looking like he will be 25 when he first gets to the big leagues, it is going to be hard for him to stick if he doesn’t hit immediately. Comparatively, Wallace will be in the big leagues during his 23 year old season next year. Furthermore, comparing Wallace and Spencer must look at pedigree. Whereas Wallace was a top half of the first round pick, Spencer was a late third round pick. Similarly, Wallace started at High A and moved to AA in his age 21 season, while Spencer was wallowing in short season ball. Looking only at the last several weeks, Spencer has hit like a beast. Its true, but only looking at this year is quite honestly piss poor analysis. Last year Spencer had a below 700 OPS in the Florida State League. It improved when he got to the hitters haven of the Cal League but it is likely that he got significant luck from BAPIP. His discipline left much to be desired, striking out nearly three times more than he walked last year. The A’s didn’t think enough of his improvement to push him up to AA at the start of the year, so he was beating up on players who were two or three years younger than he was in Stockton. In AA Spencer struggled mightily to start his tenure in AA never posting above a .850 OPS in his first three months of being at the level. While his August has been off the charts there are still major concerns. Notably his strike out rate has climbed significantly since promotion and his walk rate has collapsed back to a 3:1 K:BB ratio. Basically, Spencer is finally playing in an age appropriate environment and has a really awesome hot streak coupled with a bunch of suck. When you look at his MLE’s you see the lack of OBA potential moving forward, which means that Spencer is going to have to slug his way to the big leagues, which I don’t see happening. When he is promoted to AAA I see his strike out rates climbing to levels that are unacceptable with his low walk rate. His or lack there of will keep him from hitting much above .250 at a big league level, a .250/.300/.450 first baseman who doesn’t even play good defense is not a valuable commodity. That line is a wOBA of .350 or so, which translates into 11 BRAA. Coupled with his defense and positional adjustment, his most probable outcome is a 1.5 to 2 WAR player. Players with upsides of being about league average do not get rated highly from me unless they have a very very high likelihood of success. LOL I don’t know my numbers LOL.
So I suggest that you tip your head back to stop the bleeding. Next time you want to throw insults around, know what the f youre talking about.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 23, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Paragraphs, my good man, paragraphs!
My eyeballs are hurting. But still, it was worth it. I kinda thought you weren’t likely to pass up that gauntlet.
Ok so that should have been in paragraph form but I was pissed off.
Ill put up with people disagreeing with me till the cows come home. Everyone else has a right to be wrong. That being said, questioning whether I did the work or not is obnoxious from someone who has never written a fanpost other than one request for tickets and Im not going to let that stand.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 23, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I apologize
This didn’t come out like I thought it would. I tried something softer at first and then decided to try to rephrase a more direct statement, it was not meant to make you angry at all. I apologize again, and would like to retract what I said and restate it as,
I disagree with you on your ranking of Matt Spencer, I think he deserves a higher ranking. I was referring to one specific point (and not the whole post).
Your reply is very good and the I thought the knocking the tooth out bit was really funny. I then read you were pissed off and this is not what I intended to do at all. I was not trying to insult you, make you angry, or harass you in any way.
Thanks
I post mostly so that people disagree with me and so that I can debate them. I learn from the experience, reading and considering other people’s arguments. Questioning my ranking is totally not only fair game but something I view as a positive.
That being said it takes a very long time to write the kind of fanposts I do, and I put a lot of work into them. There is a reason why my thoughts on the Holliday trade was published 17 days after the trade and that it was longer than most of my term papers in college.
Im glad you thought the tooth bit was funny as I was pleased when I came up with it, and I accept your apology.
See you in the next debate,
DFA
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 23, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions
There are certain players who just don't look like they realistically fit in
If a guy projects to hit at average levels and can only play corner OF or 1B, he’s not very valuable. Spencer is one of those players.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
fair enough
But Spencer throws left, so 1B and corner OF are pretty much all he can do.
What projections are you referring to? Numbers are very similar and both players are 6 months apart.
I'm not looking at projections in the numerical sense
Just informally extrapolating from players’ track records and scouting reports.
Spencer got a C grade from John Sickels last year. Brett Wallace got an A-. Similar seasons might bring them closer together, maybe a grade down for Wallace and a grade up for Spencer, but there’s no way it’s bridging that yawning chasm.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Let try this 2012 thing
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Adrian Cardenas
1B Brett Wallace
DH Chris Carter
RF Grant Desme
LF Sean Doolittle
CF Corey Brown
C1 Kurt Suzuki
SS Grant Green
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Aug 20, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Stassi for C in 2012.
Other than that… looks good to me.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
I would pay money to see that team
I like it
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
One thing I've learned following prospects for the past several years...
is that none of them are a lock to do anything we expect of them. I like this list and agree with most of the opinions, but I think statements like [Cunningham] : “I’m not that high on him but will have a MLB career which is very valuable,” or [Simmons] : “Will play in the MLB which is very valuable in a prospect even with a Meh ceiling.”
There’s just no telling which of these guys will pan out in the majors; assuming some guys are “locks” to be major league regulars and using that as part of their overall grade before they prove anything in the majors is somewhat premature, in my opinion. All Cunningham has proven so far is that he can crush AAA pitching. He hasn’t shown any type of staying power at the MLB level yet, and while that’s due to inconsistent playing time and just plain old Small Sample Sizes, it’s still worth noting that he hasn’t forced the team to keep him around, so I think it’s safe to say that his future as an MLB-regular is still very murky.
Ditto with Simmons…you can dig up stats to show that he’s been victimized by a high BABIP or is putting up a nice FIP or show that he’s similar, statistically, to Joe Blanton at a similar stage of their careers, but until the guy shows an ability to consistently overmatch AAA hitters, I’ll continue to be very skeptical that he could pitch regularly in the majors.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a nice post and I agree overall with your grading and observations…but let’s remember: a year or two ago Daric Barton was a “lock” to put up year after year of .300/.400/.500 at the major league level, and today we’ll be lucky if he just stays healthy and provides decent defense at 1st for a season or two. The career-arcs of prospects can change on a dime, and while it’s really fun to speculate on those career arcs, believing any of these careers are certainties to be in the major leagues is premature.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 20, 2009 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Obviously either could be hit by a bus tomorrow and never be able to play
First, the “lock” represents the general consensus that both will have low floors rather than a true certainty. Coupled with the fact that both are already at AAA and Cunningham has already played in the big leagues, barring something seriously unforeseen that both he and Simmons will play there.
Barton was a lock to put up .300/.375/.425 Im not sure where you are getting the .200 ISO from because Barton didn’t project to have that kind of power. No where do I say that any of these numbers are certainties, but rather what I see as reasonable outcomes for each player. I also acknowlege risk:
On Carter: there is some risk that he won’t be able to hit breaking balls in the bigs.
On Cardenas: Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning… if he hits close to .300
On Wallace: Defensive concerns with Wallace trouble me as does his low walk rate and his lack of production this year with the bat until the last two weeks.
On Donaldson:He is slightly lower than Wallace because he has more risk.
On Weeks: One of the reasons why he is at #5 is that he relies on plus speed and has had a history of leg injuries both at Miami with his hamstrings and last year with the A’s hurting his hip, which adds additional risk.
I could go on but am getting bored of the copying and pasting. Simmons as an inning eating starter will get called up to make a spot start at some point in his career if not more. I fully acknowledge the risks of the prospects not panning out which is why players like Donaldson Desme and Brown are way lower than their ceilings would indicate.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Just a quick question on terminology
DFA, when you say that Doolittle has a ‘league average bat’, you mean for his position, right?
No I mean the he will likely have a league average to slightly above bat regardless of position
and that his defense will negate his negative positional adjustment to make him a league average player. Does he have more potential than that? Yes, but that is what I see as a likely outcome.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
2012
Opening day
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Adrian Cardenas
1B Brett Wallace
DH Chris Carter
RF Grant Desme
LF Sean Doolittle
CF Corey Brown
C1 Kurt Suzuki
SS Grant Green
Midseason
CF Rajai Davis
3B Adrian Cardenas
C1 Kurt Suzuki
1B Brett Wallace
DH Chris Carter
LF Sean Doolittle
RF Corey Brown
SS Grant Green
2B Cliff Pennington
DL Jemile Weeks
DL Grant Desme
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
No way Rajai will still be here when he is 33 and after he becomes a FA.
But the DL part is very funny.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
youre right
I thought since he was arb eligible this year he only had three more years but hes a super two. That being said I still think davis has little chance of being on the team at that point.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Speak for yourself
I don’t want anything to do with a 33-year-old journeyman…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I thought he was hoping
that Rajai WASN’T on the team.
I would hope that he was hoping that
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
And I would hope that you would hope that he was hoping that
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Just dont see it
Penciling in Desme, and even Brown, seems like such a longshot at this point. I’d bet 100 bucks that Cunningham is a better player than both in 2012.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
To be fair niallmack did put Desme on the DL :-P
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I know he doesn't deserve prospect status yet
but I’m becoming interested in Paul Smyth. I don’t care at what level you’re pitching, 28 innings, 0.00 ERA, 4 BB, and 34 Ks is impressive. I haven’t seen any discussion of him on this site (maybe I’ve just missed it), but I’m going to keep an eye on him, especially when he gets a chance to pitch at a higher level (now at Vancouver).
We'll know if he's legit by whether he gets skipped to Stockton or not next year
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
We'll know if he's a serious prospect by where he gets posted next year
If he gets sent to Stockton, he’s legit. Kane County, he’s probably a middle/long reliever.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Great discussion
I don’t know nearly enough about our prospects to venture an opinion of my own, but I love reading the debates among those who do.
Two questions, for DFA or anyone else who wants to answer:
1. You say that Capra is “through the injury nexus”. You mention the nexus again for someone else. What does this mean? Is there some sort of theory that there’s a certain point in a player’s career where he’s more likely to be injured, and if he gets past that point he’s less injury prone?
2. You say that Carter has “light tower plus plus power”. I understand plus power, but what is “light tower”? Is that a term I don’t know? a metaphor? a typo?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Here you go
More than you ever wanted to know about injury nexus.
As for light tower, I believe he’s just emphasizing that Carter doesn’t just hit home runs, but LONG home runs (long enough to hit these)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
That's a great article, thanks.
But then, I always like Silver. He’s my favorite sabermetric writer, by a comfortable margin.
Odd that it says next to nothing about the use of the term “nexus” though. Just in the title and then a throwaway line near the end.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I think its a metaphor
that he hits the ball so hard, he can hit the light tower a la Robert Redford in The Natural. It means that he has an 80 on the 20 to 80 scouts scale. He is the highest standard deviation.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, a movie reference! I should have known.
I’ve actually seen The Natural. I remember him hitting the homer that breaks some lights. I guess I didn’t remember it being a light tower, though.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
"light tower power" sounds a lot cooler than "light post power"
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Holy crap
Arnold Leon deserves his own appreciation thread or something. Not a single mention in any of these comments?
Dude hasn’t even turned 21 yet, is in AA, 3.58 ERA, 49/22 k/bb in 60.1 innings, and he’s now getting stretched out as a starter. (Last 4 starts: 16.2 IP, 8 hits, 15 ks, 2 bbs, 1 ER)
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
He was hurt earlier which keeps him off the list
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 9:22 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Glad to see they're stretching him out
He hasn’t had a great season this year, but he’d probably be in the 16-20 range for me.
In fact, let’s try that. 16-20 would have to include Ross, Leon, Stassi. Probably Demel. Carlos Hernandez for the 20th, maybe? Or the new Latin guy they paid a buttload of money for?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Solano?
The SS kid? Off the top of my head that sounds about right for a 16-20. Krol, Hornbeck maybe?
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 21, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Just on pure upside
Maybe Rosario figures in around that area, too. Hasn’t done squat yet, but he’s young, and they paid a good chunk for him.
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 21, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm just thinking out loud to myself now
But there’s Leyja too. Awfully young to not be completely embarrassing himself in Kane County.
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 21, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
21-25 would probably be Dixon, Leyja, Solano (?), Krol, Rodriguez
in some order.
Rosario hasn’t improved since last season, when he was somewhere in the low 30s for me. Hornbeck’s stuff isn’t all that great (actually, the scouting reports I’ve read would tend to put Shane Haviland in front of him, for whatever that’s worth). Justin Marks is clearly in front of those guys based on draft position and college track record, although his season opener was about as FAIL-riffic as one can get.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
what about Mortensen?
A high floor AAA pitcher has to be in there somewhere, no? And I agree that Petersen maybe shouldn’t be there, but it’s kind of cool that a guy with an excellent chance to be a really good bench player—good d in COF and 1B with near-average bat—doesn’t make the top 25. We have quite the deep system.
The A's do indeed have quite a deep system
but the value of C-grade hitters like Peterson is probably less than you would think. Average total career production out of those guys is only about half a win— you probably need 10 or so of them to expect to produce one starting-caliber player, 5 or so to even expect a quality bench player.
Mortensen was just an oversight, as I for some reason assumed that he was going to pass the rookie innings cutoff. Obviously that looks increasingly unlikely. I guess I’d slot him in around 17th or so.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Peterson's got to fit into the equation somewhere
Twenty one years old, a year removed from college, and already more than holding his own at AA.
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 21, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Not really
Looks very Danny Putnam-esque to me. Does he have a single tool that grades out at even average?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well he's an above-average defender in COF and 1b,
and can play a non-embarrassing CF, and scouts seem to think he’ll hit okay, if not well enough to start at any of those positions. Nothing to get super pumped about, but looks like a good bench player to me.
Anyone know what his stuff is like?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 20, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Sneaky low 90s FB with sink, that touches 94 good slider, curve and developing change IIRC
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 23, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm glad to see that you (and Paul Thomas) agree that Cardenas > Wallace.
I think most people tend to seriously underrate defense at non-SS/CF/C positions and overrate hitting. I do think Wallace will hit, but he has to hit so much better than Cardenas to make up the difference that I just don’t see it as likely to happen.
I agree with Paul Thomas that DLS has to be higher, probably in the 10ish range. As you say, once you get to the Capra area, everyone has warts (even if DLS’s warts are big), and probably no one in the system except for Ynoa has the upside of DLS.
I also think you’re selling Simmons a little short. I’ve often in the past not paid enough attention to age relative to league (I long ago dismissed CarGon for example), and I think you may be underselling how impressive it is for a 22 yr old to hold his own in AAA, including that huge 11K 1BB game being an indication that he at least has some chance of being better than a 4/5. It’s not a great season for him by any means, but certainly not a disaster. I’d have him above Stassi and Desme, easy. But that’s just a few places, not a big deal at all.
As for Donaldson, I agree he’s very underrated, but I’m to some degree with Paul Thomas in that he’s been very up-and-down. I also am eagerly awaiting a serious step forward in the realm of catcher defense. I tend to dismiss it as not that important, but that’s to some extent what a lot of saber people did of D as a whole before we had decent defensive stats, and now that seems crazy. Is the deviation between the best defensive catchers and worst higher than at other positions? Lower? I really have no idea, and until I do, I can’t have much of an informed opinion about players like Donaldson with crappy gloves can carry them with their bats. If he’s a 3B, great, but I again think it’s not going to be as simple as you suggest for him to become average there, but we’ll see.
Overall, I think it’s a very good list. Nice work.
Is Cardenas that good defensively himself though?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I really don't know, I guess,
but he seems likely to be average at whichever of 2b or 3b he ends up at, with a chance to be better. Wallace’s (reasonable) upside is -10ish at 3b, and is likely to be a lot worse, though maybe he could be average to plus at 1b. It’s not impossible but a lot of ground to make up, and considering that Cardenas is 2 years younger and starting to hold his own at AAA, I have a hard time seeing Wallace beating him by that much with the bat.
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