In Defense of Jack Cust

Yeah, I know, a lot of the AN faithful already know a majority of what I’m trying to say, especially the justification of 2007-2008 Cust. But for those who don’t, and especially for newcomers to the AN scene, I’m going to lay out my case: Jack Cust is not only an above-average hitter, but a very welcome and valuable addition to the Oakland Athletics.

We all know how it started. In his first week as an Athletic, he almost averaged a homer a day. His OPS didn’t fall out of the 1.000’s for just shy of a month. Jack Cust finished his first regular major-league season with an awesome line of .256/.408/.504. To put that in perspective, the only other .900 OPS or better seasons we’ve had this decade are 2006 Frank Thomas, 2004 Erubiel Durazo, and 2000-2001 Jason Giambi.

A lot of the Cust criticism comes from his strikeout rate, which, let’s face it, is enormous. In 2007, he struckout in 41% of his at bats, easily toppling Ryan Howard, the only other player remotely close. Cust is a textbook example of a "three true outcomes" player, meaning that every time Cust comes up to bat, he either strikes out, walks, or hits a home run. Thankfully, in 2007, he led the league in walk percentage, at 21% of his plate appearances. It’s worth noting that with the exception of moving a runner from first to third, a walk is every bit as valuable as a single. Even with his anemic batting averages, Cust still managed to get on base 40% of the time. That’s a fine baseball player, folks.

Cust manages to walk more than virtually anyone else due to his phenomenal eye and plate discipline. In 2007, Cust was second in the league in outside-swing percentage. He swung on pitches outside the strike zone less than 14% of the time, behind only Luis Castillo. In total, he swung only on a third of all pitches. Of the balls he did hit into the field of play, he came in seventh in line drive percentage. Additionally, he led the league in home run to fly ball ratio, an indicator of power, coming ahead of Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Carlos Pena, and Alex Rodriguez.

So what does it all mean? In 2007, Cust put together a fantastic offensive season. In 2008, his walk rate fell a little, as did his home run to fly ball ratio. He still managed an .851 OPS. In this decade, we’ve generally only had one player per year with an OPS that high, save for a few years in the early part of the decade (Giambi, Chavez, Tejada).

Of course, 2009 has been a down year, and most of the criticism that doesn’t stem from his strikeouts comes from 2009. I’ve heard "quad-A player". I’ve heard that the league has figured him out. It’s simply not true.

Keep in mind that before the season, Cust was told to cut down on strikeouts and swing more. It’s safe to say that the new contact-oriented Cust experiment was a failure. Thankfully, the experiment is over, as of the beginning of July. Take a look at these.

Since the around the beginning of July, almost all of Cust’s peripheral stats took a sharp turn upward. His average increased, and more importantly in Cust’s case, his on-base percentage took a huge upswing. This was buoyed by his walk percentage shooting through the roof. Along with his changing walk percentage, his strikeout percentage increased dramatically. Normally, this would be a worrying sign, but here it just signals that "three true outcomes" Cust is returning. And of the balls Cust did hit fairly, his groundball percentage decreased while his line drive percentage increased. These both triggered an increase in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). These are all good signs.

Cust isn’t fully back yet, though. The power simply isn’t there. His slugging percentage actually decreased since July, while the number of fly balls he hit dipped down for about a month. It looks like Cust’s plate discipline and his approach to taking pitches has returned back to normal. He’s just not hitting the Custian homers we all know and love. He’s again being extremely selective about the pitches he swings at, and, thankfully, as evidenced by the large number of loud outs he’s been getting recently, it’s only a matter of time before the power returns.

Expect to see the return of Spartacust, folks. If not for the rest of the year, "three true outcomes" Cust should be back in full force for 2010, provided that the management doesn’t try any new experiments.