It's been a while.

You might be thinking, "Paul Thomas? Didn't he swear off the site?" Well, actually, no, not as such. My extended absence has relatively little to do with personal taste and everything to do with the fact that, for the last two-plus months, I've been suffering from a severe case of writer's block. I had this romantic notion that I wouldn't start commenting again until I had published something of at least SOME kind of merit, and so I've been a no-show since late March. In retrospect, that might not have been the best idea, since there's never anything so detrimental to creativity as the knowledge that one MUST be creative in order to get somewhere... frankly, it's started to feel like a bit of an albatross around my neck lately. But I digress.

I just about had a fanpost lined up for when my 30-day "time-out" ended... and then I didn't get it done, and it started to look pointless, and I was starting from scratch again. So I did, and got about halfway through another piece before succumbing to a combination of poor writing, annoyance at my own lack of spreadsheet savvy, and general fatigue. This is my third try. I still have the bits and pieces of the other work. Hopefully they'll come together at some point in the next two months or so.

Instead, I thought I'd leap into the fray with something that I'm pretty confident I know something about-- dollahs. Beaucoup bucks. Etc etc etc. I'm taking the A's' budgets for the next 3 years and taking a stab at turning the ship of state around. Maybe it'll look great and maybe it'll look hopeless-- no way to tell until we start.

This is the last I'll be saying with respect to myself, although ifyou have any burning personal questions, hagiographic odes, and/or suggestions that I perform anatomically unlikely self-abuses, I suppose I'll be hanging around the comments section.

OK, first things first. If you have not bookmarked Cot's Baseball Contracts on your browser, you aren't really paying much attention to things. The site was pretty fantastic even before this season, but it's become multiple times more awesome since the year started with the addition of "future payroll obligations" spreadsheets. Want to know who's a free agent when? How many arbitration hearings your team will be going through? What the five highest paid players on the team are? How about for next year? All these questions will be answered here.

I assume you've opened up that window-- if you haven't, do it now, because we'll be referring to it repeatedly in the next few pages.

Prologue: The A's Available Payroll

Before I start buying players for my imaginary team, I have to figure out how much actual cash I have to play around with. Let's turn to trusty old Mr. Spreadsheet for some help here.

In 2010, the A's have $19.25M committed so far. That's... not very much. With Giambi fired, if the A's get 23 random AAA players to fill out the roster alongside Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis, it'd only cost a Marlins-esque $28.45M. We've got some room here. But how much? Many of the actual A's are eligible for arbitration. Specifically, Michael Wuertz, Jack Cust, Santiago Casilla, Chris Denorfia, Rajai Davis, Joey Devine and Dana Eveland entered this year in a position to potentially look at arbitration next season.

However, this is not as much of a problem as it seems. Rajai Davis seems to have rediscovered this thing known as "hitting" since I started working on this fanpost, which ironically makes him harder to deal with since I can't just sell him for a steak dinner like I could a couple of months ago. Still, "players on your team having actual trade value" is a good problem to have. I'm deeply suspicious of this putative improvement of his, mostly because I have to take any opportunity to use the word "putative" that's offered to me, but he's beyond waiver bait. He'll probably get about $1.5M next year.

Santiago Casilla's hour is up. His performance is declining and there are too many other good relievers in the system to pay him. Dana Eveland and Chris Denorfia both needed to spend most of the season in the bigs to reach arbitration status, so they won't get there.

What are the other 3 going to make? Joey Devine bageled the 2009 season, so he's not likely to cost much, especially given his checkered past. I figure he signs at about $750K. Wuertz has been rock-solid this season in the bullpen and looks to get around $2M. Jack Cust hasn't been terribly great this year (Thanks, griping fans! You broke the A's best hitter!) but is still in line for a raise, probably to about the $4M range. Add it up together with the prior guaranteed money and you've got only $27.5M committed to fill five roster spots, or $35.5M if the other 20 spots are filled at the league minimum.

This year's team spent about $62M at the big-league level. It's not real likely that the economy or attendance will be significantly worse next year (mostly because they're already both terrible), but we might want to redirect some resources toward buying more amateur players (rarely a bad idea), save cash for midseason trades, or what have you. Let's assume a working budget of ~$60M for next season.

We've got ~$25M to play with! Awesome, right? Not so fast. We'd better look into the budgets for 2011 and 2012 to make sure the team isn't spending itself into a corner next season-- I think we can all agree that we'd like to avoid any more Lilly-for-Kielty salary dump fiascos.

The 2011 Budget

As usual, we start with guaranteed money... which... really isn't much. In fact, the A's don't have a single player actually under contract through 2011 at this point-- the only committed money is option dollars going to Eric Chavez (ouch) and Mark Ellis. I think we can safely write off the $3M to Chavez as a deadweight loss, but let's pencil in $5.5M more for Ellis's option year for the time being. That gives us $9M spent and one roster spot filled.

Then we get to arbitration, and things get hairy. Cust, Wuertz and Devine are all still subject to arbitration, of course. Assuming incremental raises for the three of them, we're looking at something like $20M spent and four roster spots filled. Surely we've found some way to get value for Davis by then, so I won't worry about paying him.

The following players are candidates to be up for arbitration for the first time in 2011:

Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland, Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, Kurt Suzuki

Based on the service time they've accrued so far this season and their remaining option status, I expect to be paying all of these guys except for Barton. The exact amounts are wildly dependent on how they do in the next couple of years. I'll take some wild-ass guesses:

Suzuki: $2.5M

Braden: $2.5M

Buck: $1.5M

Eveland: $1M

Denorfia: $1M

Sweeney: $1.5M

$10M in total, bringing us to $30M with 10 roster spots filled. Another 15 league-minimum salaries bring the total to $36M. Again, we've got around $26M to play with, assuming a slight rebound in the economy and, thus, A's gate receipts. 

I was hoping to do 2012, too, but it's basically impossible. Players who are rookies this season are potentially eligible for arbitration by then, which means that practically the whole 40-man roster could be seeing raises. Obviously, not all of them will be. Anyway, let's go on the assumption that for the foreseeable future, the A's have about $26M to spend on free agents each offseason.

Step 1: Spending Money on Players Already On the Roster

It's pretty well known that deals before free agency save money. Players have a strong incentive to "cash in" and guarantee themselves a nest egg in case of injury. Teams are much less risk-averse, so they can do well by essentially playing insurance company for their players. There are limits to this-- you don't want to hand out the Dontrelle Willis contract-- but it's hard to go too far wrong here.

After this season, I'm looking to sign two players to long-term deals: Kurt Suzuki and Brett Anderson. After 2010, I'm looking at two more, Trevor Cahill and Vin Mazzaro, assuming they continue to show progress. Although the way they've been getting hammered lately, that might be overly optimistic. Still, better to have the money available if it's needed than to spend it and look like a fool later.

Suzuki is one of the better catchers in the AL-- he's a defensive stalwart, plays lots of games, and hits at an acceptably decent level. I'm looking to ink him through his first post-free agent year with an option year for the second. I think the team can do so with a 5-year, $22M contract with an additional $10M option year at the end. As I've drawn it up, this will cost the team an additional 0.6M next year (the savings is at the other end).

The pitchers get contracts modeled on the brilliantly win-win contract agreed upon between the Rays and James Shields prior to the 2008 season. Anderson's contract is for 4 seasons and $15M with 3 club option years at the end; the other two pitchers get 4-year deals with 2 option years and $12M guaranteed. For our purposes, these contracts add $0.4M next season and about $2M in 2011 with, again, the savings being realized later in the decade. All in all, leaving space for pre-arb contracts whittles down the available funds a bit. You'll thank me later.

If anyone wants detailed year-by-year breakdowns of these proposed deals, ask me in the comments section and I'll gladly provide them.

Step 2: Spending More Money on Someone Already on the Roster

We'll get to the interesting bit in a minute, I promise. Actually, this one is pretty interesting too: what on earth does the team do with Justin Duchscherer after this season? Right now, he's not likely to get draft-pick compensation if he leaves as a free agent, so there's no disincentive to re-signing him-- it's purely a question of whether he'll be worth the money. Which in turn raises the question of how much "the money" actually is.

I'm offering him a 3-year deal at $9M, $3M a season, tomorrow. It's not great wages for a guy who can be as dominant as he was last year, but it offers him a chance to stay in Oakland, gives him a nest egg for retirement, and fully absorbs the risk that he's unable to return to effective pitching. Ultimately, it's not much to pay for a player with the upside of a #1 or #2 starter. We'll know if he's decided to accept by season's end, so we go into the offseason with either $22M or $25M to spend for 2010.

Step 3: Shortstop

There are two positions on the A's roster that even the most unreasonable optimist (alright, I'll wear that sandwich board-- I did predict 84 wins for this A's roster before the season...) cannot hope to fill internally by next season. Not that there aren't other problems, too, but if we're looking for short-term fixes, it's got to start with shortstop and third base. The list of shortstops who will be free agents next season is ugly:

Orlando Cabrera OAK
Bobby Crosby OAK
Adam Everett DET
Alex Gonzalez * CIN
Khalil Greene STL
John McDonald TOR
Marco Scutaro TOR
Miguel Tejada HOU
Jack Wilson * PIT

My solution is Yunel Escobar, who has managed to piss off the Braves to the point where they have actually considered trading him-- quite an accomplishment, given his contract status. But maybe a change of scenery is what he needs.

He's not the perfect choice, I'll admit. So far this year, Escobar has actually been only about average-- his fielding numbers and his value over replacement have both been limited by some nagging injuries (hey, he'll fit right in here). That said, as a hitter he was very strong for a shortstop in both of the last two seasons, he's affordable, and he presents a possible buy-low opportunity. Why? Because Bobby Cox isn't real fond of him, and what Bobby wants, Bobby gets. A year ago, Bobby preferred Mark Kotsay to Joey Devine, and that worked out pretty well.

Still, Joey Devine was a reliever with a checkered past. Yunel Escobar is a proven MLB shortstop, and the offers are going to need to be a little better there. Atlanta has needs all over the place right now and could use quality prospects in the outfield, on the mound, and certainly in the infield too, if they move Yunel.

I'm willing to go pretty high for Escobar-- I assume that Dustin Coleman is moving as part of the deal, they'll almost certainly ask for an outfielder like Scott Hairston, and other pieces like Henry Rodriguez or Travis Buck could be deployed. It really depends on what they feel their primary needs are.

Is it a risk? Sure. Every trade is a risk. But I really like Escobar-- he's got a great OBP out of the SS slot, decent power, and depending on who you ask, pretty good defense.

Backup plan: The return of Marco Scutaro! No, he's not as good as he's been this year (most random spikes in power are just that, random). Yes, he's starting to get on in years. Fact is, he's the top option despite consistently getting little play from the mainstream media, and he liked playing in Oakland. If the Escobar deal falls through, I'm offering him 2 years, $18M. He ought to get at least as much as Edgar Renteria...

Step 4: Third Base

I had a pretty funny Jake Fox joke all lined up here (for those interested in a meaningless guessing game, it involved a Monty Python reference, like at least 30% of my jokes) and then Beane goes and trades for Brett Wallace, who's pretty much Jake Fox except five years younger and, thus, an actual prospect. Great. I'm having enough trouble making this interesting without the "help" of Billy Beane, the world's worst straight man.

As far as Wallace is concerned, he seems to be a ways off with the bat, and it would probably be optimistic to say "scouts are mixed" on his defensive abilities at third base. That's technically true, but it's a mix between "he might not be a complete eyesore there for a few years" and "if you play him at third base, your pitchers will start complaining about having to work unpaid overtime."

At the very least, his ability to claim the position entering next season is questionable. We need a backup plan.

Backup Plan: Let's check out those free agents again: 

Adrian Beltre SEA
Hank Blalock TEX
Geoff Blum HOU
Joe Crede MIN
Pedro Feliz * PHI
Chone Figgins LAA
Troy Glaus STL
Melvin Mora * BAL

Looked a lot better before Adrian Beltre went and blew out his shoulder (although I did see him back in action the other day), but at least there's something here. The tremendously underrated Pedro Feliz (if the Phillies don't pick up his option), Beltre if he's healthy, Crede if he's healthy, and Troy Glaus if he's healthy are all somewhere between acceptable and very good. (Most of them are standout defenders, as is/was Chavez, which makes me wonder a bit if there's any nexus between "good third base defense" and "injuries." Could it be that the only way to be a really plus defender at third is to give up your body and risk major injury?) Figgins is interesting as well, but if I'm signing him, it's as an outfielder, so he won't be discussed here.

Right now, there's no real way of knowing what the health status of any of the members of this Medivac Brigade will be in the offseason, but chances are good that 2 or 3 of them will be healthy going into next season. Given the risks involved, the A's can probably score the second-best of the group for around 1 year and $5 million.

Step 5: A Step Back... er, wait, I mean, A Status Reevaluation

Time to take a look at how the 2009 roster is shaping up so far.

1B: ??

2B: Mark Ellis

SS: Yunel Escobar or Marco Scutaro

3B: Brett Wallace or Beltre/Crede/Feliz/Glaus

C: Kurt Suzuki

LF: ??

CF: ??

RF: ??

DH: Jack Cust

SP: Dallas Braden

SP: Vin Mazzaro

SP: Trevor Cahill

SP: Brett Anderson

SP: ??

CL: Andrew Bailey

RHP: Joey Devine

RHP: Brad Ziegler

RHP: Michael Wuertz

LHP: Jerry Blevins (gradually getting his groove back)

LHP: Craig Breslow

SW: Justin Duchscherer?

Available Budget: Between $8M and $25M

Not bad, except for the outfield. Right now, there isn't a single player with a cemented spot out there. Looks like it's the next area of concern.

Step 6: The Outfield

This section kind of got thrown into flux by the acquisition of Scott Hairston. The outfield depth looks quite a bit better than it did prior to the trade. I'm leaving the analysis in, though, because if the A's are interested in contending, starting even two unproven outfield prospects is not the best. I like Aaron Cunningham, but the prospects are not a particularly happy-inducing group of players right now. Sweeney and Buck have alternated between "injured" and "terrible" for most of this season. Rajai Davis is a known quantity-- good backup, bad starter. Assuming he doesn't fall back down the cliff he recently climbed to the top of, he should be traded during the offseason. I'm the charter (some would say only) member of the Chris Denorfia Fan Club, but even I'll admit that he just doesn't look like someone who can handle starting duties.

Is there any help on the way? Unfortunately, not really. It looked like Sean Doolittle and Corey Brown might be on their way to the bigs by August or so, but then both players ran into the injury buzzsaw. Doolittle hasn't played since May; Brown's done a little better, but not much. We have to assume they'll be plying their trade in AAA next year. Eric Patterson probably deserves another chance, but I'm not holding my breath. Someone out there is going to say Grant Desme, to which my answer is "31.5"-- as in "percent of the time he has been struck out by A-ball pitchers."

 The team is, therefore, potentially looking at signing a free agent outfielder.

Step 7: The Outfield Market

I won't C&P the entire free agent list here, because there are a lot of outfielders, most of whom make no sense to sign. I'll hit some interesting options and/or pitfalls, however.

Bobby Abreu: .399 OBP is snazzy. History of horrific defense is less snazzy. He's not really an improvement over Jack Cust in the field, so you're running at least one major minus out there in your outfield. Also, he's getting old.

Rick Ankiel: There aren't many players who've had a weirder career than Ankiel. He's about to hit free agency for the first time, 10 seasons after his MLB debut. His power has fallen off this year, attributable to a sudden decrease in the number of his fly balls that are clearing the fence. Nick Swisher will tell you that this makes him a good buy-low candidate. Not so good: his low walk rate and his average defense.

Jason Bay: Yeah, not happening.

Marlon Byrd: An intriguing candidate indeed. In prior years, his defense has been good to excellent, as has his hitting. This year he's fallen off just a little, but part of that may have to do with decreased playing time. He's got a little of that 2006-Jay-Payton thing going for him. He's on my short list.

Mike Cameron: Still doing Mike Cameron-ey things, like striking out a lot, playing good CF defense, and hitting home runs. Also a short-list candidate despite a fairly high risk of collapse.

Johnny Damon: One would have to assume he's not eager to reprise the scene of his worst hitting season.

Chone Figgins: Speaking of odd careers, Figgins has had a pretty weird one too. He seems to be alternating good and awful seasons, which is not a reason not to sign him for next year, but he's also on the wrong side of 30, which is. Will his legs hold up? Knowing the A's medical staff, I'm going to say "no," and Figgins without legs is a pretty lousy player.

Vlad: Season gets a grade of EPIC FAIL so far. [Should I make the "buying low doesn't matter if you're buying Caribbean penny stocks" joke, or would that be "culturally insensitive?" Well, I guess I just made it. Anyone else find it ironic that there's no politically correct way to ask whether saying something is politically correct?] Not going there.

Matt Holliday: Yeah, not happening.

Magglio Ordonez: From near-MVP to ticket out of town in two years? I don't think anyone has any idea what to expect from Mags next season. Ultimately I don't think he solves the A's' problems unless they get real lucky, and I feel like someone will pay him too much for past performance.

Randy Winn: Winn has been chronically underrated for years, but I think Byrd is better, younger, and likely cheaper.

Final Assessment: I'm offering up to 2 years, $16 million to Mike Cameron, who continues to play quality ball in his mid-30s. If we've failed to make any trades to fill 3B or SS, re-signed Duchscherer, and assuming he accepts (not certain), that's it-- we're out of money. If not, I'm also looking to ink Marlon Byrd for around 2 years and $10 million.

Step 8: First Base

The cold corner has been a house of horrors for the A's in recent seasons. Daric Barton's struggles the last two years are well documented, and the rest of the PA have gone to a crew of has-beens who have posted an sOPS+ of, as of writing this, 56 (that is, OPS+ relative to the situational average-- in this case, a league average first baseman hitting in Oakland). This putrescent performance is the worst on the team-- worse even than third base, manned primarily by noted no-hit wonders Jack Hannahan and Bobby Crosby. There's not much out there in free agency, which is why I haven't bothered to save dollars for the position-- Nick Johnson is about the only name that interests me, and I fear that his extreme injury risk won't be properly accounted for by the free agent market. 

Brett Wallace again pokes his head in as a candidate here, but the offensive requirements of first base are considerably more onerous than third and I just don't see him being ready by next season. In addition, the A's are well advised (because of the lack of depth at 3B in the system) to keep him playing third for as long as he seems to have any chance of sticking there. He's a desperation option, but that's about it.

In order to build depth, therefore, the A's need to do some dumpster-diving and come up with a few free or cheap replacement options that can be turned to if Barton fails to deliver. Calling up Tommy Everidge was a good start-- odds are that he's not realistically a candidate to contribute at the major league level, but it doesn't hurt to give him a try. If nothing else, there's more upside there than there is with Giambi, who hasn't hit well even when he's been able to avoid the DL.

The next candidate on the list might be worth it just for the marketing-- Hawaiian late bloomer Kila Ka'aihue has more walks than strikeouts on the season and is busy posting his second consecutive season with OBP's north of .400. The potential business bonanza of "Kila Monster" merchandise and offseason package tours to Hawaii with Kila and Kurt Suzuki aside, the man needs a chance at the major league level, and the Royals aren't going to give it to him. I'd look to trade a bullpen arm to acquire him-- Andrew Carignan and Henry Rodriguez both fit the bill, as power arms who walk a few too many hitters to be at their best in an environment like the Coliseum.

If the A's are looking for a poor man's Daric Barton clone, providing great plate discipline at the expense of power, they might want to look into Wes Timmons, the first baseman for Atlanta's AAA franchise. He has zero power (literally-- no home runs this season), but he boasts a remarkable BB/K ratio (not a fluke-- he was at 45/25 last season) and pretty decent speed and batting average numbers. Perhaps the A's could get him as a throw-in to the Yunel Escobar trade outlined above, or perhaps they could snag him as a minor league free agent. I can't tell if he's going to be granted free agency this offseason or not.

Randy Ruiz just got a callup from Toronto to replace Alex Rios (let's not get into how weird THAT whole thing was) after consistently pounding the ball in the high minors for the last several seasons. Toronto already has an established first baseman in Lyle Overbay, so he's not likely to stick there long-term. As a guy who's somewhat older than Everidge, I'm less bullish on his chances to make good, but it never hurts to stock your larder with as many flavors of Spam as possible. (I bet you didn't even know there WERE multiple flavors of Spam. Well, there are-- Hot 'n' Spicy Spam, Spam Spread, and even Spam Golden Holy Grail. You can't make this stuff up, folks.) Maybe they'll all suck, but at least they taste better than "going hungry," which is what the A's have been up to lately.

Another option the team might look at is the Mexican League. Most of the sluggers down there are thoroughly over the hill, keeping their careers going by playing where the air is thin, but there are a few exceptions. One particularly interesting fellow is Japhet Amador, a 22-year-old first baseman currently with Veracruz. He's showing formidable power (21 HR) for a youngster. One assumes he won't come cheap, probably involving a transfer fee in the high six or low seven figures, but if the scouts say that his talent is legitimate, it'd be worth it. The A's seem to have a real edge on the competition in scouting the Mexican League, and perhaps they can parlay that edge into another solid prospect. All that said, Amador is unlikely to be a significant factor next season.

Time to set some concrete goals. By Opening Day of next season, the A's need to:

Get Everidge a significant cup of coffee (100 ABs or so).

Give Daric Barton another extended period in which he can actually start for the team.

Hire or acquire another "freely available talent" slugger.

Odds are, unfortunately, that first base will continue to be a problem area through the early part of next year. Still, the worst thing one can do when presented with a major problem is "nothing." The second-worst thing one can do is "sign Carlos Delgado." Hopefully the A's can avoid those pratfalls.

Step 9: Pitching

We're finally to the last stage in what has become a rather epic exercise in putting the "depth" in "depth charts." Taking stock again, we find that the A's have potentially as much as $20M to spend, or potentially as little as zero, depending on what moves get made.

As was the case last season, the A's could really use one more starter to enter the season with. This year, the lack of said starter led in part to the utterly bizarre decision to start the season with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson in the big-league rotation, which did the team no favors from a winning standpoint while pointlessly squandering their service time. I'm fighting the impulse to go off on a rant at this point about how bad last offseason was, and will instead simply point out that everyone would be a hell of a lot happier if the A's had signed Randy Johnson instead of Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera. Sometimes signing a starter IS the right option.

Is it right for this season, though? There are certainly some major names available next offseason:

Erik Bedard: Do you trust the A's to keep him healthy? He's very, very good when he is. Personally, though, I'd expect him to start about 10 games in 3 seasons in an Oakland uniform.

Kelvim Escobar: Eek. If there's anyone more injury-riddled than Bedard, it's this guy. The extension he signed with the Angels has basically been a disaster. Might be worth it on a Brad Penny-like short term deal, but I'm not making any kind of long-term commitment.

Rich Harden: Speaking of risky... honestly, I don't think he'd want to come back, nor do I particularly relish the thought of seeing him back.

Tim Hudson: Recovering from Tommy John Surgery and will miss most or all of this year. The Braves have a contract option on him for next season, however. I have no idea if it will be exercised or not. If he was available, I would be all over him-- not only is he a fan favorite and very good at baseball, he'd be perfectly situated to serve as a "second pitching coach" for young sinkerballers Cahill, Anderson and Mazzaro.

John Lackey: Not having a great season, due largely to an inflated BABIP. I feel like he's still going to get paid a ton of money, but the one scenario in which I could see him actually being affordable and desirable (a season in which his peripherals remain good but his ERA is mediocre) is partway toward coming to pass.

Jason Marquis: You've got to be kidding me. Or since I'm writing this, I've got to be kidding myself, which is a little weird. Anyway, this is your obligatory "don't sign lame pitchers having fluky-good years" reminder.

Brett Myers: Not that great, and injured. Still have a hard time believing he was the #2 pitcher for a World Series winner-- not only is that karmically insulting (given his status as well-known wife-beater/thug), it's downright mystifying from a player-talent standpoint. I guess Chase Utley really is that awesome.

Jarrod Washburn: His improvement this year is mostly real, thanks to a much improved sinker, but he's still getting on in years and extremely likely to be overpaid.

Well, that was pretty disappointing, actually. Not nearly as much there as I thought there would be. If Tim Hudson is available and we've got cash left over, I'd be willing to go as high as 3 years at $10M a pop for him, and I think there's a decent chance he would enjoy returning to take on a leadership role as the unquestioned veteran "stopper" of the staff. The A's should probably put a bid in on John Lackey, too, but more to drive up the Angels' price to re-sign him than for any other reason.

Step 10: Is It Worth It?

Let's do a quick-and-dirty projection of this lineup to try to figure out how it looks.

C: 3.5 WAR (Suzuki is pretty good)

1B: 1 WAR (still a problem area)

2B: 2.5 WAR (Ellis is excellent, backups not so excellent and likely to see some time)

SS: 2.5 WAR (assuming the A's land Escobar; somewhat conservative)

3B: 2 WAR (Still not sure how much to believe in Wallace or the free agents, but there are actually a lot of good options here)

LF: 3 WAR (Hairston is solid)

CF: 3 WAR (Cameron is also still solid)

RF: 1.5 WAR (I want a prospect breakout as much as you do, but can't just assume one)

DH: 2 WAR (assuming a rebound by Cust once the A's finally realize that messing with his hitting style is idiocy)

SP1: 3 WAR

SP2: 2.5 WAR

SP3: 2 WAR

SP4: 2 WAR

SP5: 1.5 WAR (the above more or less assumes a rotation of Hudson/Braden/Anderson/Cahill/Mazzaro, but obviously the estimates are extremely generic)

RP: 5 WAR (A's have a lot of quality in this area even after the Hairston trade)

Total: 37 WAR, or somewhere in the neighborhood of 87 wins. Good enough that some prospect breakouts could put the team over the top, but not nearly a dominant force.

Conclusion: Where the Hell Do The A's Go From Here?

Well, o apostrophized reader person, that's an excellent question. And one to which I can now authoritatively state that... I don't have a good answer.

I really don't see how it's possible for the A's to contend without developing one or more top-tier players internally. The math just doesn't add up-- it's very difficult to fill 14 or 15 slots with slightly above average players, and in any event, the A's are a long ways from doing so. As for generating those top-tier guys, development takes time, and the players with very high upsides are not especially close to reaching them.

The sudden reverse-course, "go for it" decision for this year may well have set the A's rebuilding plans back by a full season. The outfield is a mess and missing the guy who was previously the top prospect, Carlos Gonzalez. The infield is filled with veteran time-servers. After examining the options, I think it's time to admit that a. it was a failure, and b. that the A's should not repeat it next season.

That's not the same as advocating inaction, mind you. What it means is: avoid trading for one-year rentals, avoid players who might block legitimate prospects, and generally try to avoid Type A free agents. Interestingly, I think a lot of my "plan", above, is still operational. Yunel Escobar isn't hitting free agency anytime soon. Hudson's no Type A with all the time he's missed; Adrian Beltre might not be, either. Marlon Byrd is on the outside edge of maybe, but is probably acquireable. However, it mostly rules out Cameron and Scutaro.

One thing I think is very important is for the team to punt this season as soon as humanly possible, which means immediately transitioning to "auditioning for the future" mode. Axing Giambi was a good start. Nomar and Crosby have no value and should be released, which sounds heartless but might actually improve their chances of playing for a contending team down the stretch, as the new team would only have to pay them the prorated league minimum salary. Springer gets a pat on the back before being put out to pasture at the back end of the bullpen (or, ideally, traded, assuming he's willing to make the move and clears waivers, which I think he would). Adam Kennedy should have his playing time scaled way back, because he is not a part of the A's future. I'm still baffled as to why he wasn't moved at the deadline. Trevor Cahill should be sent immediately to AAA, which will preserve an additional season of club control and allow him to work on... well, pretty much everything. (I'm less worried about Mazzaro, who's not been great but is suffering from a bizarrely inflated BABIP in his last 10-ish starts.)

Summation

1. The A's have in the neighborhood of $26M a season to spend on free agents for the foreseeable future.

2. Approximately $4M should be earmarked for raises to players already in the organization, as a loyalty bonus for signing pre-arbitration contracts and/or for a long-term extension for Justin Duchscherer.

3. Major holes on the roster are shortstop, third base, an outfield spot, and first base.

4. The A's should make serious efforts to trade for Yunel Escobar (ATL).

5. Within the month, the A's need to clear the roster of, or at least bench, veteran stopgaps in favor of players who will be with the team beyond this season, including at least Cliff Pennington, Gregorio Petit, Tommy Everidge, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham and Chris Denorfia.

6. Entering the offseason, the A's should be targeting good-glove players at third base, in particular Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, and possibly Pedro Feliz depending on whether his option is exercised. In a perfect world, those guys are fill-ins and defensive replacements for Brett Wallace. More likely, they're starting for at least half the season.

7. In the outfield, there are a number of interesting players, but the big names will not realistically be available. Once again, the A's should be targeting underrated players with crack gloves like Marlon Byrd.

8. First base doesn't appear to have a long-term solution available, so the best solution is competition among a number of different options, including Daric Barton but not handing him the job.

9. There isn't much available at SP. Tim Hudson is worth a sniff if he is on the market.

10. Don't have inflated expectations. 2010 is probably not going to happen, although there's enough upside lying around that the A's aren't out of the running by any means.

Alright, I'm spent. Have at it.