Are these the A's of 2010?
by Billy Beane's Brain on Aug 12, 2009 3:52 PM PDT
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PrintDoes anyone else think that the A's we are seeing now could be the A's of 2010? We have four rookies who are starting in the rotation who aren't going anywhere. We have a rookie at short and first who will only get better. We have veterans at third and second who are playing solid and could easily be around next year. The outfield has Davis, Sweeney, and Hairston all who will be part of next years core. The bullpen is solid and could be better with a healthy Devine. Our catching situation might be the best in baseball. Should we just keep this group together and let them slowly get better over time and sprinkle in a few of our minor leaguers who are ready? Who needs free agency??!!
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I think we still have other roster problems
Like does barton get another shot, whos the 4th outfielder and what does the starting rotation look like? Kennedy will probably not be starting as i am predicting wallace winning the starting spot in spring training.
I just got back from the Rivercats game
Wallace will not be starting in Oakland next year. Patterson will never be a major league player unless he decides to shorten his swing, and become a lot more disciplined than he is. Cardenas looks fine at 2nd but will stay in Sacramento next year as will Wallace, a long way from starting in the major leagues.
How much have you seen of Wallace?
All i have seen is his batting average. So i am just wondering what it is that would keep him in AAA. Does he just not look ready? I realize he looks like the stay-puff mashmellow man, but any additional info you have would be great.
But every year there seem to be players that break out in the spring…so who knows who it will be. It is also way to early to know if Penningotn and Everidge will keep this up.
What would keep Wallace in AAA
is the fact that he hasn’t learned to hit AAA pitching yet.
His AAA line this year between Memphis and Sacramento is .285/.337/.417, whereas his previous minor league OPS has been .908, 1.109 and .841.
He’s not ready.
Wallace
After watching him at Arizona State for 3 years and looking at his numbers in the mnors, I’d say he will be starting in the big leagues by June of next season at the latest. The guy can flat out rake.
I'd say yes, these are the A's of '10.
And one of the key reasons why is that this team is 30th out of 30 in major league attendance (both at home and on the road, not that the latter matters much).
17,300 a night. That’s pretty bad. It’s a decline of approximately 3,000 a night from last season’s average attendance figure. The A’s are the only team in baseball that hasn’t drawn one million fans yet. They brought in Holliday, Giambi, Cabrera, Springer, Garciaparra – 3-4 “names” who you might hope would help attract better crowds – and still attendance was abysmal even in April, long before the A’s were out of it.
Because of that, I ask you this, and truly would like to debate it with ANers:
What would be the motivation of the ownership and FO to spend multiple millions to improve this team via FA this offseason?
I can’t think of one that makes smart business sense.
My feeling is that ‘09 clearly established that a lack of “name” players are not what is keeping people from going to the ballpark…because the A’s acquired a few, and people came out even less than before. So in essence, signing free agents would only be valuable if it could dramatically improve the team, so much so that the free agents themselves vaulted the A’s into contention. And I don’t think that any combination of the ‘09 free agents – especially those within the A’s price range – suddenly take this team from 70 wins to 90.
I think the ‘10 A’s are going to be extremely young, and they’re going to be giving opportunities to a lot of young players all over the diamond. The 40-man roster will get a lot of use, because guys will struggle, get sent down, and get replaced by other guys in AAA. It’ll look like what’s happened on the big club the last month. Also, Chris Carter is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, so he’ll be added to the 40-man before next year. Someone will struggle, and you’ll get to see a little bit of Chris Carter. Carter will struggle, and you’ll someone else, etc.
It won’t be a playoff team, and attendance won’t get any better – they may be 30th again in attendance next year. But I think they’ll be more entertaining for hardcore fans like us to watch, just like the last month has been, because they represent the future of the A’s.
I could see them signing a deep, deep sleeper for a very cheap salary – a reclamation project coming back from very serious injury, like Mulder or Hudson – for a minor league deal with million-dollar performance and roster bonuses, or for a guaranteed contract of $1M. But even those guys would prefer to pitch in the NL, as any free agent pitcher, especially a reclamation project in a one-year “prove yourself” deal, would.
But otherwise, I agree with the premise of your post, BBB – we are watching a preview of the 2010 team.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Aug 12, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions
I disagree about attendance
The A’s pretty much sucked out of the gate. Nobody was hitting and the pitchers were children. Lew Wolff trashed Oakland time and time again, and said the team was moving, and then secretly began negotiations with San Jose. Management has closed off the third deck, which depresses attendance a little at some games, and significantly at sell-outs or near sell-outs (such as Rickey Henderson night, or Giants games, or games with the Red Sox and Yankees).
Given all that, only hard-core fans kept faith, and it’s utterly understandable. Management has been a major screw-up with regard to fans this year. Blaming the fans for putting up with that is absurd. These older players were SUPPOSED to help the team contend. It never did. Sorry, but I’m not about to walk up to the box office (if I didn’t have season tickets) and plunk down $30 to watch Jason Giambi go 0-4 against the Kansas City Royals.
The team in 2010 COULD be exciting. It all depends on whether Anderson and Gio G. can maintain what they’ve learned this year, and if Cahill can make a similar jump. If so, and if the hitting can be closer to August 2009 than June 2009, the A’s could put on quite a show. And if they do, attendance will start to rise in mid-season…Mid-season, not at the beginning of the year.
I do think we’re looking at the 2010 club, by the way, without that many more changes.
I attribute the A's attendance partly to having a poor team from the git go,
and partly to the A’s marketing/PR/ticket depts being so lousy it is flat-out embarrassing to me as an A’s fan. They practically go out of their way to be unwelcoming and to try to convince people not to buy tickets.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm seeing alot of my A's fan freinds go to Giants games instead of A's games
They don’t even like the Giants but prefer to spend their money in a nice stadium just to watch baseball vr spending it at the colesium to watch their own team. Or they watch the Giants and A’s play in SF not Oak. Then they walk around after the game and spend some more money on a late dinner or drinks. This is something that rarely happens around the colesium.
I’m guessing that this is happening more and more every year. Fairweather fans are not, its making a difference. We need a new stadium somewhere nice, we really do.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Its mostly about the way that fans are treated at the stadium
I went to a game about a week ago and stopped off at the souviner stand right after the game ended. The people working the shop practically threw me and my girlfriend out of the store as we were walking in so they could close shop. Doesn’t really make a fan want to go to the game or buy their merchandise.
Attendance struggles are not new
The A’s have never been a huge draw. Personally, I don’t miss the third deck.
But other than the third deck closure… I agree that the promotion and marketing SUCK.
Your data
says that the A’s haven’t been a good draw since the days of Haas ownership. There’s no question a new stadium would draw fans. But this year has been particularly awful because management did give the fans the finger, and attendance still was depressed by the closing of the third deck, and the team sucked. Also, and this is baseball’s fault, not the team’s or the fans’, the economics of baseball make it virtually impossible to root for favorite players because they’re gone in a flash.
The team hasn't drawn since before Haas (and I think you meant LowcountryJoe's data)
And during most of Haas… The team has only been better than league average 8 times in 41 years. The Haas years were definitely good years to be a fan. But he owned the team for 15 years, or thereabouts, and not even half of those years did the A’s have above league average attendance.
The attendance issues are not just a recent phenomena.
The A’s have made a lot of headway in recent years with media revenue (Comcast Sportsnet CA and KTRB are relationships that can grow), they have to improve in stadium revenue and corporate revenue.
I agree with richwol1
about the attendance situation. The team has drawn solid crowds in the past and could do so again. This is the first season in years that I didn’t fly out in July and watch a bunch of games because frankly the team was awful and boring and not worth the money I’d have to put out.
As far as this group being a preview of next years team I hope there are a few changes. The A’s need a middle of the order bat because Jack Cust does not cut it as a cleanup hitter. The A’s should have some money to spend so hopefully some thunder will be added to the lineup.
I'd like to see someone with
baseball acumen determine our “holes” with the current incarnation of the A’s, if indeed this is the core going forward. I can’t see Kennedy as the starting third baseman next year, no matter how I wish it were so. Perhaps Wallace is a bit to young, so who starts in April? Chavey? BWAAAAAAAA…..
I hope Kennedy is around as a bench player who gets semi regular playing time. I can live with Pennington if what we are currently seeing is what we get. I think it’s guaranteed that Crosby and Nomar come off the books. So what will it be?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
To me, the holes are still on the left side of the infield,
because Kennedy is not an every day starting 3Bman on a good team and the A’s don’t have enough offense around Pennington to make him a great starting option. If the Chavy era finally ends, I’m guessing Wallace makes the team at 3B out of spring training because he’s ready to hit big league pitching and the A’s need that — and if he’s ever going to make it as a 3Bman it will be in the near future.
Let’s say the A’s add someone on the left side in the off-season — let’s just imagine it’s today’s “idea of the day” and plug in JJ Hardy. You might have, for 2010, something like:
R. Davis – CF
Sweeney – RF
Hairston – LF
Cust – DH
Wallace – 3B
Suzuki – C
Hardy – SS
Barton/Everidge platoon? – 1B
Ellis – 2B
until Doolittle (1B or OF) and/or Cardenas (3B, Wallace to 1B) and/or Carter (DH, 1B, or RF) are ready to take over.
If Chavy’s healthy, just put him where I have Wallace and start Wallace at AAA (or 1B if he wins that job instead).
In this scenario, Cunningham is a key 4th OFer and Kennedy a key backup infielder. I think Buck is traded in the off-season, just from the writing on the wall.
Or I could be completely and utterly wrong about all of this.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That lineup is missing something
called power. I wonder does Everidge have more power than he’s shown so far? In the power spots of LF,RF,3B and DH that group doesn’t have a guy who can hit 35 home runs. I know those guys don’t just grow on trees (they grow in Balco labs) but I think you need at least one big stick to have a chance in the American League.
If Sweeny could become a 15-18 HR guy and if Wallace can provide say 20 homers then maybe that group would work but that seems to be asking a lot. If the A’s don’t add some power then they’ll have to keep playing small ball which I enjoy but boy that would be a huge cultural change for this franchise.
No matter what happens in the off-season this stretch of good baseball has given me some hope which is something I didn’t have 6 weeks ago.
I think it's a given that the A's won't have much power in 2010
in that I just don’t see the 25+ HR guy outside of Cust if he bounces back. It’s not ideal but I think it’s realistic.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Come on
Sweeney’s on the team! He is going to hit like 40 bombs next year!!!!!111 Look at his frame for Pete’s sake?!?!?!
I don't think that it's all that necessary
to have the proverbial “big stick” going forward. I think the game is undergoing one of it’s frequent evolutions, whereas the one big bat will be more than off set by a number of “smaller bats” stepping up and contributing collectively to the power curve. In the post roid era, perhaps it’s a better strategy to have multiple players with 15 HR power along with other skills to contribute. Which is to say, I think I agree with you with the exception of the “big stick”. It’s to easy to neutralize a sole power threat in a lineup. If we have only one A-Rod type of player, he’s going to be pitched around constantly. So what’s the point in having him unless we are counting on him appearing an inordinate amount of time with the bases loaded?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
I've never understood this
the A’s don’t have enough offense around Pennington to make him a great starting option.
Pennington provides a certain value (we both seem to think that value is low). If all you’re saying is that surrounding him with better players would make the A’s better, I agree but don’t understand why that’s so frequently mentioned (note: this is not a nico dig, just thoughts about that all-to-common phrase). If you’re saying that Pennington provides enough value to start for a good team, but because all of his value is defensive the value doesn’t apply unless there are also no-hit all-field players, I wonder why you would think that. It isn’t like Pennington’s defense is good enough to make, say, Giambi get to more balls.
In any case, I’m honestly wondering where the idea comes from.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I can only speak for myself, but for me it's about balance
A team of 9 Penningtons (at their proper positions) would score very few runs and give up very few runs, but would be ill-equipped, going forward, in a game that was currently 4-2 in the 4th inning (because they can prevent runs well but can’t score them well).
I think a team that has a more balanced ability to score, prevent, HR, steal, and so on is better equipped to handle a variety of opponents and a variety of situations throughout the course of a season.
As a result, just using one position as an example I’d rather have Pennington in a lineup with a strong hitting, middling defensive 3Bman (e.g., Wallace circa 2010-2011?) than in a lineup with a strong defensive, middling hitting 3Bman (e.g., Hannahan).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
players aren't totally independent on offense
I agree that protection in the batting order is pretty much a bogus concept, but a good outcome on a single at bat will usually not score a run (HR is the obvious exception). What Nico’s trying to say is that, if you can stack the top of your lineup with some scoring threats, then you might be able to get away with stashing some good defenders but bad hitters at the bottom.
If your lineup is bad from top to bottom, then every lineup spot is pretty much equally important and the difference between a 700 OPS or 650 OPS from your young shortstop might matter more.
My favorite batting orders usually predict how runs will be scored.
For example, a power hitter after a high-OBP guy and a singles hitter after a base-stealer. Then when you see a 2-run HR (not a solo shot) and an RBI single (not a runner stranded at 2nd after a high-OBP guy walks), you kind of saw it coming.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So does that mean...
Cust hits after……
…Cust??!
Hardy/Pennington
So we can agree that Pennington is not THIS good and that Hardy isn’t THIS bad, but let’s compare Hardy’s 2009 to Pennington’s worst season (his brief stay last year). This way we’ll determine whose worse at their very WORST. Perhaps we’ll see how much we need Hardy.
Hardy .229/.300/.367/.667 OPS
Pennington last year: .242/.339/.293/.632 OPS
So we agree that they both COULD be terrible. But really, Hardy’s bad season isn’t much better than Pennington’s. I agree that we might want to start looking for options at SS, I’m just not convinced Hardy is the guy we need. I mean, to REALLY put this into perspective, Hardy’s OPS this year is the EXACT SAME AS CROSBY. Did i mention he also plays in the worse league?
Last 30 days...
In all of MLB Oakland is: Eighth in Avg. .281, Second in Runs 156, First in Doubles 65, and First in Stolen bases, 33.
So I don’t know if these are the 2010 A’s, but if they are then at least they might be competitive
The A's of 2010
I am certainly impressed with what the boys have been doing lately. I think you could be quite right-let’s give this team a chance the rest of the season and then see where we are at the end of September. I have to confess, when we traded Holliday and Cabrera-who then had the team’s highest batting averages-I wondered at it. I thought we were doomed. I had no idea we would suddenly start winning. It’s great, isn’t it?
Kelly Sweeney, no, not related to Ryan!
Kennedy
Why can’t Kennedy play 3rd base on a “good team.” Because he doesn’t hit 35 HRS? He plays solid defense, hits for average, steals bases, already has double figure HRs in his shortened season. I would say he does some things that the “power” third baseman can’t do. After the past few years of futility at third, I’m glad to have Kennedy over there. I would feel comfortable if he was our 3rd baseman next year.
by Billy Beane's Brain on Aug 13, 2009 6:44 AM PDT reply actions
I love Kennedy and want him back, but not as a starting 3Bman
He has below average power and “decent” speed (but not Figgins type speed), so when he hits .250 and HRs at Sweeney rates instead of Cust rates, he will be inadequate as a starting 3Bman. He has shown way more power and BA with the A’s than you can hope for in the future.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It has been so long...
since we have seen any productivity out of our third baseman that it magnifies the offense of output that Kennedy has displayed. My assumption is that Chavez will return next year and that Kennedy will play behind him 25 to 30% of the time.
Somehow, I felt that Hanahan was stifling any movement these could potentially have at third base as long as Chavez remained injured. In that sense, Kennedy has been a Godsend.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Question is...
Can they take that step foward and compete in the West next year?
I think the pitching will definitely be better next year with MAC, Braden and Gio and they can only improve (well, hopefully Braden can keep it up)…
But how will the offense respond? Can Davis keep this up? Could the A’s obtain Hardy, and can he have a bounce back year? What do we do about 3B?
Still, I’m going to stay hopefull and optomistic and I am looking foward to next year.
We may just suprise a lot of people.
Go A’s…
Core is there but something still missing
I agree with the others in the sense that the core of next years team is definitely there- built on the backs of what will be one of the finest pitching staffs in baseball next year. But as we will see in the next few weeks, we do not yet have what it takes to compete with strong teams like the Angels, Yankees or Red Sox on a consistent basis. We have some hot and often streaky players but do not have the “big bat” yet. In my view, the A’s need to keep what they have but definitely look for one more solid, consistent bat for next year-most likely a left fielder. And on a related note, Matt Holliday can kiss our collective A’s Arses.
The greenmachine
Oh so you CAN hit .486, you bald-headed twit.
Not that I’m bitter because I’m not.
Stupid git.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My bitterness is directed at Mark Mcgwire.
WHY DO YOU CHANGE A GUY’S SWING WITH A FRIGGIN 900 OPS
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
Cahill
What do people think about starting Cahill in AAA for 2010? It was pretty clear this year that he needed some more time in the minors. Maybe work on his changeup or curve so that he can get lefties out (they are OPSing 971 against him this year!).
On the other hand, I don’t know if it would be too much of a blow to send him down after a full year in the majors (and he has had some success, inconsistently).
On the whole, I have no problem with fast-tracking prospects. So I guess it just comes down to a question of which environment will lead to the most improvement. It could be the case that he will learn fastest if he says in the majors, but I’m a bit worried that left-handed hitters will just keep crushing him and he won’t ever learn to get them out.
I think at this point, Cahill is here to stay
The logical window for sending him to AAA seemed to be June/July 2009.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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