GOG 2009 #37

by colin on Aug 10, 2009 10:33 AM PDT

The Athletics head into Baltimore for one more series before they finally get an off day, their first since July 15. Over the last 25 games, the A's have a 12-13 record, scored 145 runs, and allowed 143. They have also said goodbye to Holliday, Cabrera, Giambi, and Springer. At the start of this stretch, the A's were 13 games back in the AL West and they are now 17 games behind the Angels. I think it's safe to say that anyone looking back on the 2009 season will mostly remember these last 4 weeks.

The last 25 days have not been as kind to the Baltimore Orioles. At the end of July 15, they were in last place in the AL East, but they could brag about being two games ahead of the A's. As of this morning, the A's are three games up on the Orioles. Can Oakland win the series, and prove that they are the best of the bottom-dwellers?

GOG #37 :: Orioles Are Milk's Favorite Cookie (31 points possible)

Three game series @ Baltimore Orioles -- August 10-12

UPDATE -- answers, courtesy of micdog2001, are posted below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Jeremy Guthrie has actually allowed two more home runs this year than Trevor Cahill (they are number one and two in the AL, respectively). Who allows more home runs in this series, Guthrie (who starts today) or Cahill (who starts tomorrow)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] tied, with zero each
Markakis had a great year in 2008, combining a .900 OPS with good defense and playing in 157 games. One of the things that made 2008 so good for him was a big jump in his walk rate (from around 8% up to 14%) that boosted his OBP from the .350-.360 range up to an elite .406. What jumps out from his plate discipline numbers is that he cut down significantly on swinging at pitches out of the zone, with that rate falling from ~23% to 18%. This year, Markakis' plate discipline and walk rate have both regressed. How many walks will Nick draw in the series? [3 points] 0 walks for Markakis
Jay Marshall has been added to the active roster after Mortensen got sent back to Sacramento. This means that the A's are now rocking an 8 man bullpen. How many innings does Marshall get to pitch this series? How many right-handed hitters does he face? [3 points each] Marshall pitched one inning, faced two right-handed batters
Jason Berken has one previous start against the A's, back on June 6, and it wasn't good. In that start, he only lasted 3.1 innings and gave up 9 earned runs. Surprisingly, none of those runs came off of HR, but he did give up 7 doubles (two to Cabrera, two to Kennedy, and one each to Cunningham, Giambi, and Davis). How many doubles do the A's hit against Berken in this start? [3 points] one double off of Berken (from Everidge)
Cunningham is back in the majors, but didn't get a start last series. Predict his AB/H/K for this series [6 points] 1 AB, 0 H, 0 K
Who steals more bases in the series, Brian Roberts or Rajai Davis? Who throws out more baserunners, Matt Wieters or Kurt uzuki? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] 2 SB each for Rajai and Roberts; 1 CS for Wieters and none for Suzuki (but 1 for Powell)
Which Athletic supplies the most Win Probability Added for the series? [3 points] This one goes to Craig Breslow, who pitched 2 perfect innings in game 1 and then bailed Mazzaro out of a runner on third, one out situation in game 3. The least WPA? That would be Nomar, who had just one at-bat, but it came in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position. The A's still had about a 12% chance of winning when he came to the plate, but that disappeared after two pitches.
One component of the fielding statistic UZR is outfield arm runs (ARM), which quantifies the strength and accuracy of outfielders arms by looking at outfield assists, how frequently opposing runners are prevented from taking extra bases, and so on. The Orioles lead the majors in ARM, as their outfielders have prevented 11.9 runs with their throwing alone (both Markakis and Pie are well above average and Adam Jones is sick). Does the Orioles outfield score an assist in the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] no outfield assists
The backup infield :: Between Nomar and Crosby, who gets more at-bats? Who gets more hits? Who accumulates more total bases? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] they tied straight across the board: 1 at-bat, 0 hits, 0 total bases

Post your guesses by 4:05 pm, because the game's on the east coast. And enjoy your off day Thursday!

Results

Low turnout for this one. And some sort of weird questions. Let's just all be happy that the A's won the series!

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.23077 points
standard deviation = 3.32049 points
mode = 6 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to nevermoor on the win. All it took was a reminder that zaniac75 is still close behind, and the raven returns to top form. (of course, zaniac75 is still close behind)

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
nevermoor	1	10	35	1	288	3	0.250
zaniac75	2	8	35	2	282	5	0.244
Angry Sean	3	7	33	13	170	30	0.155
micdog2001	4	6	31	6	217	13	0.211
A'sfaninNC		6	30	3	234	6	0.238
Blicks		6	19	22	120	19	0.190
Rated-R Superstar	7	5	31	6	217	10	0.216
oblique	8	3	30	13	170	25	0.171
streetfan	9	2	35	15	169	32	0.146
train80		2	33	9	192	23	0.177
ZeroIndulgence	11	1	20	24	116	24	0.176
doctorK	12	0	37	11	186	31	0.152
colin	13	-1	36	5	225	21	0.190
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	22	10	188	1	0.259
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	18	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	8	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	31	84	29	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	29	8	206	12	0.211
mikeA	DNP	--	31	4	232	7	0.227
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	9	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	20	21	125	20	0.190
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	51	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	15	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	24	15	169	11	0.215
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	56	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	2	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	56	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	19	126	17	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	16	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	26	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	67	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	55	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	32	73	22	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	9	33	71	N/E	0.247
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	13	29	94	14	0.209
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	51	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	50	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	54	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	62	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	59	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	32	12	176	27	0.166
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	62	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	46	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	59	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	53	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	48	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	47	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	25	18	132	28	0.162
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	33	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	19	126	4	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	49	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	62	17	N/E	0.515
stranahanahan	DNP	--	3	68	15	N/E	0.152
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	59	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	3	62	17	N/E	0.167
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	56	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	62	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

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Comments

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   1. 2-1 A’s
   2. Guthrie
   3. 1
   4. 1/2
   5. 3
   6. 4/1/1
   7. Rajai / Wieters
   8. Rajai
   9. No
  10. All Crosby

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 10, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions

1- 2-1 A’s
2- Cahill
3- 2 BB
4- 1 IP, 2 RHB
5- 2 doubles
6- 8 AB/3 H/2 K
7- Roberts, Suzuki
8- Kennedy
9- Yes
10- Crosby for all 3

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Aug 10, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions

GOG

my rose-colored GOG

3-0 Oakland!
Guthrie
2 walks for Markakis
Marshall pitches 1.2 innings, faces 3 RHB
A’s hit two doubles against Berken
Cunningham :: 7 AB, 2 H, 1 K
Roberts, Suzuki
Gio Gonzalez
no
Crosby, Nomar, Crosby

by colin on Aug 10, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

1. 2-1 A’s
2. Tied each give up 1
3.1
4.1/2
5.2
6.5/1/2
7.Rajai,Zooks
8.Ellis
9.Yes
10.Crosby all 3

"Macha hates you"- Tacoma fans heckling Kielty

by zaniac75 on Aug 10, 2009 11:08 AM PDT reply actions

Picks...

1. A’s 2-1
2. Cahill
3. Two
4. 2/3 of an inning. Zero righties.
5. Two
6. 4/1/1
7. Raj, Wieters
8. Raj
9. Yes
10. Crosby across the board.

by train80 on Aug 10, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions

Cracked 200 points, Sweet! Only 1 point behind you Rated-R.

Series outcome [3 points] A’s 2-1

Jeremy Guthrie has actually allowed two more home runs this year than Trevor Cahill (they are number one and two in the AL, respectively). Who allows more home runs in this series, Guthrie (who starts today) or Cahill (who starts tomorrow)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] / Cahill (The Orioles have 5 guys with at least 10 HR and a few other guys that will most likely hit 10 this season)

Markakis had a great year in 2008, combining a .900 OPS with good defense and playing in 157 games. One of the things that made 2008 so good for him was a big jump in his walk rate (from around 8% up to 14%) that boosted his OBP from the .350.360 range up to an elite .406. What jumps out from his plate discipline numbers is that he cut down significantly on swinging at pitches out of the zone, with that rate falling from ~23% to 18%. This year, Markakis’ plate discipline and walk rate have both regressed. How many walks will Nick draw in the series? [3 points] 2 BB

Jay Marshall has been added to the active roster after Mortensen got sent back to Sacramento. This means that the A’s are now rocking an 8 man bullpen. How many innings does Marshall get to pitch this series? How many right-handed hitters does he face? [3 points each] 1 IP, 2 Righties)

Jason Berken has one previous start against the A’s, back on June 6, and it wasn’t good. In that start, he only lasted 3.1 innings and gave up 9 earned runs. Surprisingly, none of those runs came off of HR, but he did give up 7 doubles (two to Cabrera, two to Kennedy, and one each to Cunningham, Giambi, and Davis). How many doubles do the A’s hit against Berken in this start? [3 points] 2 2B

Cunningham is back in the majors, but didn’t get a start last series. Predict his AB/H/K for this series [6 points] 4 AB/ 1 H/ 1 K

Who steals more bases in the series, Brian Roberts or Rajai Davis? Who throws out more baserunners, Matt Wieters or Kurt uzuki? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] Davis by far IMO/ Suzuki

Which Athletic supplies the most Win Probability Added for the series? [3 points] Mazzaro

One component of the fielding statistic UZR is outfield arm runs (ARM), which quantifies the strength and accuracy of outfielders arms by looking at outfield assists, how frequently opposing runners are prevented from taking extra bases, and so on. The Orioles lead the majors in ARM, as their outfielders have prevented 11.9 runs with their throwing alone (both Markakis and Pie are well above average and Adam Jones is sick). Does the Orioles outfield score an assist in the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes

The backup infield :: Between Nomar and Crosby, who gets more at-bats? Who gets more hits? Who accumulates more total bases? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] Crosby, Crosby, Crosby (Is Nomar still alive? DFA his @$$)

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Aug 10, 2009 12:14 PM PDT reply actions

Guesses gone wild!

1. A’s 2-1
2. Cahill
3. Three
4. 1.2IP, 2 righties
5. Three
6. 4/1/1
7. Davis, Suzuki
8. Gonzalez
9. Yes
10. Crosby, Nomar, Nomar

by oblique on Aug 10, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions

Sometimes, when everybody is choosing the easy answer, you just have to pick the long shot. That way if the improbable happens and you're right, you look like a genius.

1. 2-1 A’s
2. Tie
3. Two
4. 1IP, 1RHB
5. Four
6. 3AB/ 1H/ 1K
7. Rajai, Wieters
8. Cust
9. Yes
10. Crosby for all three

by Angry Sean on Aug 10, 2009 1:11 PM PDT reply actions

Tom Clancy should hire his Mr Clark character to arrange for Angelos to suffer a creative accident

1. 2-1 A’s
2. Cahill gives up MOAR DINGERZ
3. 2 BB for Markakis
4. 2/3 of an inning for Marshall, no righties faced
5. 3 juicy doubles against Jason Berken
6. 4 AB/1 H/2 K
7. Davis, Zooks
8. Gio Gonzales
9. Yes
10. Crosby x3

"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden

by doctorK on Aug 10, 2009 1:54 PM PDT reply actions

2-1, Athletics
Guthrie
2 BB
1 IP; 1 RHB
3 2B
6 AB, 2 H, 1 K
Davis; Suzuki
No
Kennedy
Crosby; Crosby; Crosby

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 10, 2009 2:35 PM PDT reply actions

I'm going to assume

that you swapped your answers for questions 8 and 9

by colin on Aug 13, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Good headline, colin!

Three game series @ Baltimore Orioles — August 10-12

   1. Series outcome A’s 2, O’s 1
   2. Jeremy Guthrie has actually allowed two more home runs this year than Trevor Cahill. Who allows more home runs in this series, Guthrie (starts today) or Cahill (starts tomorrow)? Guthrie
   3. Markakis had a great year in 2008, combining a .900 OPS with good defense and playing in 157 games. This year, Markakis’ plate discipline and walk rate have both regressed. How many walks will Nick draw in the series? 3
   4. Jay Marshall has been added to the active roster after Mortensen got sent back to Sacramento. How many innings does Marshall get to pitch this series? How many right-handed hitters does he face? 2IP, 4 righties
   5. Jason Berken has one previous start against the A’s, back on June 6, and it wasn’t good. How many doubles do the A’s hit against Berken in this start? 3 doubles
   6. Cunningham is back in the majors, but didn’t get a start last series. Predict his AB/H/K for this series 4AB, 2H, 1K
   7. Who steals more bases in the series, Brian Roberts or Rajai Davis? Who throws out more baserunners, Matt Wieters or Kurt Suzuki? Davis steals more (he’s on a mission), Wieters catches more runners out
   8. Which Athletic supplies the most Win Probability Added for the series? Ellis? What’s this, WPA?
   9. One component of the fielding statistic UZR is outfield arm runs (ARM), which quantifies the strength and accuracy of outfielders arms by looking at outfield assists, and so on. Does the Orioles outfield score an assist in the series? Yes
  10. The backup infield :: Between Nomar and Crosby, who gets more at-bats? Who gets more hits? Who accumulates more total bases? Nomahh more AB, Crosby more hits, Crosby more bases (This guess probably doesn’t make any sense)

by streetfan on Aug 10, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions

1. 2-1 A’s
2. Guthrie
3. 2
4. 1/2
5. 2
6. 4/1/2
7. Rajai/Zooks
8. Ellis
9. Yes
10. Crosby cubed

Bad spellers of the world untie.

by A'sfaninNC on Aug 10, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions

Man, I haven't done one of these in a while.

1. A’s sweep.
2. Neither, it will be a tie.
3. 2
4. 2/3 IP/ 0 RH
5. 2
6. 7AB/2H/2K
7. Rajai, Kurt
8. Hairston
9. No
10. Nomar for all.

Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!

by ZeroIndulgence on Aug 10, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions

I was wondering what my score was so I looked up the answers to GOG #37.

Answers (except #8)

1. 2-1 A’s
2. neither pitcher gave up a HR
3. 0 walks
4. 1 IP, 2 right handed batters faced. (well Roberts is a switch hitter but batted right handed of course)
5.1 2B
6. 1 AB/ 0 H / 0 K (he got into all 3 games as a defensive replacement but only 1 PA)
7. both had 2 SB, Wieters with 1
8. couldn’t find it
9. I don’t see any in the Boxscore but I’m not sure if they list it there
10. Both had 1 AB and neither got a hit or a walk.

In the case of players tying does it count as a negative score or zero? (Example, question #10; Crosby and Nomar have the exact same line 1 AB, 0, 0. Does it count as -3 or zero points since I picked Crosby for all 3?)

If ties count for negative points I got 2 total points and if they count as zero then I got 7 total points.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Aug 13, 2009 4:32 PM PDT reply actions

thanks for the help

I’m sort of inconsistent on what to do about ties. Usually it comes down to whether or not anyone guesses a tie. In this case, on question 2 I gave +1 to the three people who guessed tie, and 1 to everyone else. But on the first part of question 7, and all three parts of question 10, it would have just meant minus points for everyone, so I threw those out. I was also influenced by the realization that there were so many +/ questions on this GOG that a score of -7 was possible.

Actually, I guess I mostly helped myself out. I had the worst score with a ~~1 and it would have been a fairly embarrassing -5 if I had kept all those minus points in. So there you have it -~~ I’m a big cheater.

by colin on Aug 13, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions