next A's philosophy: High $ International FA signings and High draft picks- pitchers only

by OmahaHi on Jul 4, 2009 6:11 PM PDT Comment 16 comments

Pitching

The Oakland A's have clearly made a switch in drafting and signing international FA's the last few years. Micheal Ynoa was signed to the biggest FA signing bonus ever given out by the A's. The A's also spent money (for them) on Solano this year from Venezuela. They have also picked up players in the draft who have fallen due to there monetary demands like Hunter and Stassi with the intention of overpaying to get them to sign and not go to college. One market the A's have neglected is picking up players from Japan that could make an impact. It may also make sense for the A's to go all out with a proven strength in drafting and only or mostly go high with pitchers.

Spending money on draft picks and International FA's seems to be Billy's next under-served part of the market to try and take advantage of. It does not matter if you are good/bad or otherwise at picking talent then you should be spending all the money you can getting these types of players. If your good at it you get all kinds of extra talent. If your bad you get less, but still more than the system would have otherwise. Since Billy's been running things, the A's are good/great at picking pitchers and poor/terrible at picking hitters high.

The A's pick up pitching talent and developing it quickly into good or better major league players. . Around half of the A's first pitching picks in the draft since 2000 have made the show or will. 50/50 for pitchers is pretty good. That most of them have been above avg is even better.

2000- Kevin Mcgerry- Bust

2001- Jeremy Bonderman-started in 2003. Second in K's A.L. 2006.

2002- Joe Blanton- started in 2004 , 16 wins in 2006.

2003- Brad Sullivan- Bust

2004- Houston Street- saving 23 games in 2005. Rookie of the year.

2005- Jared Lansford - bust at this point in AA midland with a ceiling of middle relief.

2006- Trevor Cahill- 4.55 after jumping from AA. High ceiling and almost untouchable to the A's.

2007- James Simmons- 4.89 first year AAA. minor AA all-star in 2008. Top 10 A's prospect at start of year. not now.

could be expected to pitch for the A's or someone else in some capacity the next year or two.

2008- Tyson Ross- average at best with 4.79 in single A at the moment. top 25 prospect at start of year.

The A's are not very good at picking Hitters at all. Especially Shortstops.

Hitters first pick-

2000- Freddie Bynum SS- Bust

2001- Bobby Crosby SS- ROY- but now a big fat Bust

2002- Jeremy Brown -C- Bust

2003- Omar Quintanilla SS-Bust. has not hit above .238 in four partial seasons with Rockies

2004- Landon Powell-C- hitting .203 in 22 games. Not a Bust yet, but not great for a #1 either.

2005- Cliff Pennington-SS- .373 OBA/ 26 RBI in 75games AAA. probably a backup at best

2006- Mattew Sulentic-OF- .281 5HR in 61 AA games this year. was top 25 prospect. not anymore.

2007- Sean Doolittle- 1B- top 10 prospect.hasn't done skwat this year in AAA.moved fast. will play in majors.

2008- Jemile Weeks-2b- .366 A+. doing everything right at this point.

2009- Grant Green-SS- I know its a need but with our history of wasting #1's on bad shortstops I wish the A's luck.

bust after bust after bust. all our possible above avg. talent is in the last three drafts. If we get lucky and Doolittle becomes better than avg the A's will have been 1/8 in 2000-2007. If one of Weeks/Green work out 2/10 or 20%.

people have advocated not going after International FA pitchers or picking any high in the draft since we seem to have so much pitching depth but is this a good idea? Now no one can say the next 10 years will be the same as the last ten but at what point is the pattern undeniable and a change in phylosophy need to be made? would the A's be better off just drafting pitchers and pitchers only and trading them for AA hitters down the line that have proven themselfes to have value or upside? instead of 5 pitchers and mabey 2 hitters, if we could have 10 pitchers to mix and match in trade's and the rotation should we go that way?

Now the A's probably know if they would be even better at drafting pitchers by looking over old draft notes. If they had picked the best pitcher on their board the first two picks the last 10 years would those other pitchers be above avg? they couldnt do much worse on drafting hitters high.

In conclusion I think what the A's are doing with overpaying draft picks and International FA's is very smart. Drafting pitchers only high would be radical but could be smarter. Now if the A's have a just can't miss hitter high on all the A's scouts board very early (top 5) in the draft go for it but going with a strengh on drafting pitchers could be the next step for thinking outside the box for the A's.

Poll

Should the A's pick mostly (90%) pitchers with high draft picks and spend most of the money on mostly international FA pitchers?

Yes, its what they are good at. trade them as needed for hitters

11 votes

Yes, but work on getting a super-staff that will put up a sub 3 ERA

4 votes

No, just an aberation. it will even out and the A's will pick up good hitters soon.

23 votes

No, the A's will probably continue to overdraft/overpay for bad bats but its just too crazy to give up on trying

7 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

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Comments

If Weeks & Green are the double play combo for a decade

I would say they drafted fine.

A’s need talent……. where ever it comes from and regardless of positions

by Bud Light on Jul 4, 2009 9:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

trading pitching depth for hitters(Scott) seems to be the winner

imagine what kind of hitters we might get if we traded one of our top 10 pitchers instead of scraps (and no I don’t think the PTBN will be a top 10)

by OmahaHi on Jul 6, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

From what I gather

Most of the reason Doolittle hasn’t done much is because he hasn’t been healthy.

by MrMoneyBaller on Jul 5, 2009 12:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

.699 OPS in AA last year, .812 OPS in AAA this year. 8HR in 79 total games.

not bad but not as good as his top 3 hitting prospect status for Oakland would suggest it be when he popped 18 HR’s in 86 games for A+ stockton.

by OmahaHi on Jul 6, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds about right.

I still think he’s an excellent prospect, but I’ve seen that a number of people aren’t as high on him as I am.

by MrMoneyBaller on Jul 6, 2009 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A guy named Swisher?

It may be me, but you seem to be grading parts of the hitters drafted a bit hard.

1) If you are only listing the first hitter taken then why is Brown on the list over Swisher? Swisher has been better than any hitter taken by the A’s, and drafted 20 picks before Brown. Brown was the 6th guy the A’s took that year.

2) Bynum, was dafted in the 2nd round on the 60th pick in the draft and over the last 3 years has been a backup with the O’s and Cubs I believe. Not sure that that is a bust, may not be great but bust?

3) If you trade a minor league player (Quintanilla) to get a to help your Major league team, when is he a bust? Quintanilla was hitting over .300 in his three years with the A’s minor league system, when he was traded. Is this not a Rockies problem?

4) I guess if Crosby is a bust then Bonderman is a bust also. Bonderman had an ERA of 5.01 in 2007, played in onlly 12 games in 2008 and has pitched once in 2009!

by dougald1 on Jul 5, 2009 10:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What???!!!

Are you saying that a poster on AN would cherry-pick data to make their own weak argument sound valid? LIES!!!

Besides, it’s not like it matters, since everyone knows that Beane is the worst GM in baseball ever since his one and only trade, the Hudson trade, flopped.

Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.

by Threepwood XX on Jul 5, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on Jul 5, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going by the A's official site draft results where they had Brown first.

i guess they just threw in all the first rounders randomly.

good point on Bynum. How about below avg? If I give you Quintanilla as getting something back then I get Bonderman as getting something back also. Crosby got nothing back and I do have something against him so still a bust for us..

by OmahaHi on Jul 5, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Laughable.

The guy won a rookie of the year and was our starting shortstop for years. He seems like a bust because guys like Peter Gammons convinced you he would be a future MVP – but if you can guarantee me that my first round pick will start for my team for six years, I’ll probably take that.

by SeanR on Jul 5, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, Crosby has been a big time bust

He was a bust when he won the ROY award with a .239 average and .319 OBP and beat out rookies who were even worse (one of the worst years for rookies in a long time), and then has spent the last 4 years vacillating between being injured and posting a gawdawful OPS of .595-.645, with increasingly poor defense.

Bobby Crosby has been a very poor baseball player over his six major league seasons. The fact that he was able to hold down a starting job for losing teams too blind to bench him, or the fact that he was kind enough to be injured much of 2006 so Scutaro could play the contending team, does not suggest he has been anything but bad.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 5, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

95% of major league draft picks are busts, then...

In the year we took Crosby (pick 25), the 5 picks before and after him…

Jeremy Sowers, Brad Hennessey, Jason Bulger, John-Ford Griffin, Joseph McBride…
and after
Jeremy Bonderman, William Horne, Justin Pope, Josh Burrus, Noah Lowry.

Now, admittedly, I’d rather have Lowry/Bonderman (who we picked, anyway). But of the rest of those guys, I’d argue that Bobby Crosby has had the best career. I don’t want to scathe a guy over the coals whos primary reason for not becoming what we thought he could be was injury.

The MLB Draft, in the words of Beane himself I believe, is a crapshoot. If, at pick 25, you can come up with a guy good enough to play on an MLB team for year after year, you’ve done fine. And before you get on me and say that the A’s are just too blind – I guarantee you Crosby is playing in the majors next year for some team, A’s or not.

by SeanR on Jul 5, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the notion that the reason for Crosby's failures is injury

is a crock. Injury is simply the reason it has taken the A’s so long to realize, with certainty, that the guy can’t hit. In a typical season, Crosby will hit about .240, he will get on base at about a .300 clip, and he will slug around .300-.345. That is terrible.

And yes, the 10 guys on either side of Crosby in the draft have also turned out not to be good. That doesn’t make Crosby any better, it just makes the draft worse.

Crosby is an average defender who simply cannot hit a baseball. Maybe he could hit a basketball or a kiwi or a ferret named Phyllis. But a baseball? Not so much.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 5, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"Where's the beef?"

by MMunoz33 on Jul 5, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that he isn't a good mlb player isn't really the point though

The point is that he has and will have a long MLB career. That by definition isn’t busting. SeanR does a great job of illustrating why: the expected outcome for a first rounder is like 3WAR for their entire career(not a real number I haven’t looked it up in a while so I think thats ballpark). Crosby has exceeded that

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on Jul 5, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude, I have a ferret named Phyllis

but it’s cool, the Crosby fam can totally come over. And I have baseball bats all over the place. But I’m not worried, cause it’s Croz. But dude, you and furry animals, it makes me wonder sometimes…

I don't always blog. But when I do, I prefer AN. Stay thirsty my friends.

by Kallus on Jul 6, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs