GOG 2009 #27

by colin on Jul 3, 2009 3:14 PM PDT Comment 18 comments

Wow, I'm really late in posting this GOG.

The A's are finishing the first half of the season with a little road trip, and they get to ease into it against the worst team in the American League. I would say that Indians fans can really sympathize with the ups and downs (but mostly downs) that Oakland fans have been subjected to this season but there are two big differences. One, the Indians have actually been even worse than Oakland (though some of this seems to be bad luck, as Cleveland is way off of their pythagorean record). And two, instead of watching good pitching performances ruined by total lack of run support, they get to see lots and lots of runs scored… by the other team. Yes, they have a powerful offense, but the only team that allows more runs to score is the one playing in Washington DC.

So, would you rather see your team lose 3-0 and slump back to the dugout after each at-bat, or play with a bullpen where the appropriate analogy is not so much a gas can as a critical mass of highly refined uranium?

GOG #27 :: Et tu, Wahoo? (35 points possible)

Three game series @ Cleveland Indians -- July 3-5

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Cleveland
Cliff Lee absolutely dominated the A's last year (to be fair, he dominated a lot of teams last year), to the tune of 1 ER in 14.2 innings, with 12 K and 1 BB. To further emphasize how bad it was, Oakland's OPS against Lee was .307(!!!!) Predict Lee's IP/ER/K for his Sunday start [2 points each] 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
The Indians run prevention has been the worst in the AL so far this year. One of the reasons for this is a ghastly 4.03 BB/9 for their pitching staff as a whole (imagine Trevor Cahill is pitching all of your innings... and then add an extra half a walk per game). How many runs do the A's score in the series? How many walks do they draw? [3 points each] A's score 10 runs, draw 9 walks
Catcher comparison :: Who gets on base more times, hitting as a catcher, Kurt Suzuki or Victor Martinez? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Both Suzuki and Martinez had two starts at catcher in the series. Suzuki got on base 3 times, Martinez 0 times.
Shin-Soo Choo is one of just four South Korean players currently in MLB (and the only position player). Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each] 12 AB, 6 H, 7 RBI (all 7 RBI were from game 1!!)
The game score (thanks Bill James!) is a nice improvement on the idea of a "quality start". Do the three Oakland starters average a game score better than 50? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Average game score for Oakland pitchers is 37 -- only Gio posts a game score over 50
The Indians bullpen has actually blown as many save opportunities as they've made (13 of each). Does a Cleveland pitcher blow a save in this series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
Since coming back from the DL, Ryan Sweeney has gone 15 for 39 (.385 BA) but hasn't drawn a single walk. Predict his AB/H/BB for the series [2 points each] 7 AB, 2 H, 0 BB
So far this season, the A's record is 2 games below the pythagorean expectation. But that's not so bad! Cleveland is a full 6 games behind pythag, and should be ahead of the Royals, according to their runs scored and against. Does the actual result of this series match the expected result from the pythagorean formula? (just using 2 for the exponent) [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] 10 runs scored, 20 runs allowed for Oakland. The pythagorean formula gives an expected win percentage of 20%. For a three game series, that rounds up to 1 victory, so the real result did match the pythagorean expectation.
How many at-bats for Nomar in the series? Will he get a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second] 4 AB, 2 hits (so yes, he did get a hit)

Game one of the series starts at 4:05 pm. Oh crap, that's like 50 minutes from now! Post your guesses (and I will be pretty lenient about late entries).

Results

There weren't a lot of entries for this GOG, since I got it posted less than one hour before the games started. Doh!

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.00000 points
standard deviation = 2.48633 points
mode = 3 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to streetfan for the victory. All three of our points leaders failed to get an entry in, so this is a good chance to pick up ground!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
streetfan	1	8	27	11	142	31	0.158
micdog2001	2	7	22	8	150	12	0.204
GoAs	3	6	24	5	164	15	0.201
colin	4	5	26	5	164	21	0.190
harenshair		5	7	37	58	N/E	0.245
muffinpryde	6	4	23	17	121	33	0.158
Rated-R Superstar		4	21	13	133	20	0.196
doctorK	8	3	27	9	145	30	0.162
adragon		3	18	27	92	34	0.156
whiteshoes40		3	17	33	63	37	0.114
Angry Sean	11	1	25	16	125	35	0.150
Blicks	12	-1	10	41	41	36	0.121
zaniac75	DNP	--	25	2	193	5	0.232
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	94	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	18	7	156	1	0.261
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	26	93	17	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	20	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	29	84	32	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	26	2	193	9	0.224
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	18	20	112	22	0.189
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	19	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	17	23	105	23	0.188
oblique	DNP	--	20	17	121	26	0.181
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	51	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	22	106	14	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	77	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	19	14	130	11	0.208
travdog6	DNP	--	2	94	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	56	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	24	104	2	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	56	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	15	126	16	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	68	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	41	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	14	25	98	13	0.203
roscoe	DNP	--	24	10	144	25	0.181
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	86	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	66	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	83	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	55	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	73	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	80	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	34	60	28	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	39	51	29	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	30	73	24	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	83	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	91	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	23	12	135	27	0.178
nevermoor	DNP	--	25	1	202	4	0.244
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	9	31	71	3	0.247
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	40	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	11	28	89	6	0.232
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	35	59	18	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	23	4	165	10	0.218
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	51	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	91	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	73	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	97	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	89	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	50	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	32	70	19	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	3	66	16	N/E	0.147
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	62	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	41	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	80	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	86	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	59	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	62	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	46	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	80	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	59	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	53	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	73	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	48	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	47	31	38	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	70	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	38	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	73	10	N/E	0.286
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	83	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	70	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	77	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	35	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	68	14	N/E	0.424
tosk	DNP	--	5	49	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	62	17	N/E	0.515
stranahanahan	DNP	--	1	89	4	N/E	0.118
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	94	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	59	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	91	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	88	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	3	62	17	N/E	0.167
bzrklysb	DNP	--	3	54	23	N/E	0.219
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	77	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	70	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	56	19	N/E	0.186

1 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Comments

1. 2-1, Indians
2. 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
3. 4 BB score; 7 BB drawn
4. Victor Martinez
5. 13 AB, 4 H, 3 RBI
6. No
7. No
8. 12 AB, 4 H, 1 BB
9. No
10. 11 AB; yes

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 3, 2009 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

typoz

I made a fairly significant error on question 3. The fANpost is now fixed, and you might want to change your response.

by colin on Jul 3, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, it’s too late.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 3, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

latest GOG ever

A’s sweep!
Cliff Lee :: 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
A’s score 14 runs. A’s walk 14 times.
Suzuki
Choo :: 12 AB, 3 H, 0 RBI
yes
yes
Sweeney :: 10 AB, 2 H, 3 BB
yes
5 AB for Nomar. He does get a hit

by colin on Jul 3, 2009 3:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

wheeeee

1. 2-1 A’s
2. 7 IP/2 ER/6 K
3. 6 BB score, 13 BB drawn
4. As a catcher? Suzuki
5. 13 AB, 4 H, 2 RBI
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. 12 AB/4 H/1 BB
9. Yes
10. 2 AB, 0hits

"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden

by Blicks on Jul 3, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

GOGging from Pittsburgh

1. 2-1 A’s
2. 7 IP, 2ER, 5K
3. 5 BB score, 10 BB overall
4. Zooks
5. 11 AB/3 H/1 RBI
6. Sure, why not
7. No
8. 13 AB/4 H/0 BB
9. No
10. 8, yes

"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden

by doctorK on Jul 3, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Change #3 please:

14 runs scored, 10 BB drawn.

"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden

by doctorK on Jul 3, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

crap crap crap

you all managed to post your answers before I fixed my typo

check question 3

by colin on Jul 3, 2009 3:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Post typo

1. 2-1 A’s
2. 6/4/8
3. 15/10
4. Zook
5. 14/4/2
6. yes
7. yes
8. 12/5/1
9. yes
10. 5/ yes

PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves

by adragon on Jul 3, 2009 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I can haz another series win?

   1. 2-1 A’s
   2. 7/3/5
   3. 13/11
   4. Suzuki
   5. 13/3/1
   6. Yes
   7. Yes
   8. 13/5/2
   9. Yes
  10. 6/yes

by whiteshoes40 on Jul 3, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This series is either going to be really good, or really, really painful

1. A’s sweep (crosses fingers)
2. 6/4/4
3. 16/12
4. Kurt
5. 10/2/0
6. yes
7. No
8. 12/4/2
9. Yes
10. 4/no

by GoAs on Jul 3, 2009 3:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

GOG 27

1. 2-1 A’s
2. 8/2/5
3. 11/9
4. Kurk
5. 14/3/2
6. Yes
7. no
8. 14/5/1
9. no
10. 5/yes

They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!

by muffinpryde on Jul 3, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

   1. Series outcome [3 points] A’s, 2-1
   2. Cliff Lee absolutely dominated the A’s last year (to be fair, he dominated a lot of teams last year), to the tune of 1 ER in 14.2 innings, with 12 K and 1 BB. To further emphasize how bad it was, Oakland’s OPS against Lee was .307(!!!!) Predict Lee’s IP/ER/K for his Sunday start [2 points each] 8/1/7
   3. The Indians run prevention has been the worst in the AL so far this year. One of the reasons for this is a ghastly 4.03 BB/9 for their pitching staff as a whole (imagine Trevor Cahill is pitching all of your innings… and then add an extra half a walk per game). How many runs do the A’s score in the series? How many walks do they draw? [3 points each] 16/13
   4. Catcher comparison :: Who gets on base more times, hitting as a catcher, Kurt Suzuki or Victor Martinez? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] Suzuki
   5. Shin-Soo Choo is one of just four South Korean players currently in MLB (and the only position player). Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each] 12/4/3
   6. The (thanks Bill James!) is a nice improvement on the idea of a “quality start”. Do the three Oakland starters average a game score better than 50? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes
   7. The Indians bullpen has actually blown as many save opportunities as they’ve made (13 of each). Does a Cleveland pitcher blow a save in this series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] No
   8. Since coming back from the DL, Ryan Sweeney has gone 15 for 39 (.385 BA) but hasn’t drawn a single walk. Predict his AB/H/BB for the series [2 points each] 12/5/1
   9. So far this season, the A’s record is 2 games below the pythagorean expectation. But that’s not so bad! Cleveland is a full 6 games behind pythag, and should be ahead of the Royals, according to their runs scored and against. Does the actual result of this series match the expected result from the pythagorean formula? (just using 2 for the exponent) [1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes
  10. How many at-bats for Nomar in the series? Will he get a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second] 3, Yes

by harenshair on Jul 3, 2009 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

1. 2-1 A’s
2. 7IP/ 2ER/ 8K
3. 13 runs/ 15 walks
4. Suzuki
5. 13 AB/ 3 H/ 1 RBI
6. No
7. Yes
8. 12AB/ 4H/ 2BB
9. Yes
10. 3AB/ 0H

by Angry Sean on Jul 3, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I promise, I don't know the score...

GOG #27 :: Et tu, Wahoo? (35 points possible)
Three game series @ Cleveland Indians — July 3-5

Series outcome Indians 2, A’s 1
Cliff Lee absolutely dominated the A’s last year. Predict Lee’s IP/ER/K for his Sunday start 6IP, 3ER, 4K
The Indians run prevention has been the worst in the AL so far this year. How many runs do the A’s score in the series? How many walks do they draw? 10 runs, 8 walks
Catcher comparison :: Who gets on base more times, hitting as a catcher, Kurt Suzuki or Victor Martinez? Suzuki
Shin-Soo Choo is one of just four South Korean players currently in MLB (and the only position player). Predict his AB/H/RBI 3AB, 1H, 0RBI
The (thanks Bill James!) is a nice improvement on the idea of a “quality start”. Do the three Oakland starters average a game score better than 50? Yes
The Indians bullpen has actually blown as many save opportunities as they’ve made. Does a Cleveland pitcher blow a save in this series? No
Ryan Sweeney has gone 15 for 39 (.385 BA) but hasn’t drawn a single walk. Predict his AB/H/BB for the series 8AB, 4H, 1BB
So far this season, the A’s record is 2 games below the pythagorean expectation. Does the actual result of this series match the expected result from the pythagorean formula? (just using 2 for the exponent) Huh. No
How many at-bats for Nomar in the series? Will he get a hit? 3AB, 1 hit

by streetfan on Jul 3, 2009 4:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

uh, I thought the game was at 7:00

obviously I was wrong. Well, I have know idea what has happened so far but I could see my questions not being taken. i can dream though.

Series outcome [3 points] A’s 2-1
Cliff Lee absolutely dominated the A’s last year (to be fair, he dominated a lot of teams last year), to the tune of 1 ER in 14.2 innings, with 12 K and 1 BB. To further emphasize how bad it was, Oakland’s OPS against Lee was .307(!!!!) Predict Lee’s IP/ER/K for his Sunday start [2 points each] 7 IP/ 2 ER / 6 K
The Indians run prevention has been the worst in the AL so far this year. One of the reasons for this is a ghastly 4.03 BB/9 for their pitching staff as a whole (imagine Trevor Cahill is pitching all of your innings… and then add an extra half a walk per game). How many runs do the A’s score in the series? How many walks do they draw? [3 points each] 10 runs/ 5 BB
Catcher comparison :: Who gets on base more times, hitting as a catcher, Kurt Suzuki or Victor Martinez? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] Martinez
Shin-Soo Choo is one of just four South Korean players currently in MLB (and the only position player). Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each] 9 AB/ 2 H/ 2 RBI
The (thanks Bill James!) is a nice improvement on the idea of a “quality start”. Do the three Oakland starters average a game score better than 50? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] the what now? um, NO.The Indians bullpen has actually blown as many save opportunities as they’ve made (13 of each). Does a Cleveland pitcher blow a save in this series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] YES
Since coming back from the DL, Ryan Sweeney has gone 15 for 39 (.385 BA) but hasn’t drawn a single walk. Predict his AB/H/BB for the series [2 points each] 10 AB/ 3 H/ 1 BB
So far this season, the A’s record is 2 games below the pythagorean expectation. But that’s not so bad! Cleveland is a full 6 games behind pythag, and should be ahead of the Royals, according to their runs scored and against. Does the actual result of this series match the expected result from the pythagorean formula? (just using 2 for the exponent) [1 if right, -1 if wrong] Um, Yes
How many at-bats for Nomar in the series? Will he get a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second] 4AB/ 1 H