Let's end OPS
by 5Tool on Jul 2, 2009 10:15 AM PDT
49 comments
With all of the talk of the fast approaching trade-deadline everyone is starting to compare our players with other players in the hopes of acquiring some new talent ,and that's great. However, the way in which it is being done seams mostly based around comparing OPS, for batters at least, and quite frankly, OPS is dumb. Sure its better than batting average, and sure it takes the two most important components of hitting, how often you a batter reaches base, and how many they reach in the process, but it is very sloppy and has two major problems:
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Slugging percentage is inappropriately weighted in terms of their actual run values for singles, doubles, triples...
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As mentioned in Moneyball, OBP gets much less credit than it deserves as OPS is dominated by slugging percentage. (OBP should be doubled for OPS to be more accurate.)
Basically, OPS is flawed. It doesn't inherently mean anything, it's just two stats put together. It's not terrible, but why use a statistic you know is wrong? And certainly, when you're trying to predict the moves of Beane, it is foolish to use a statistic that he said was wrong back in 2004. I know its nice using a statistic that everyone already knows, but thats what they said about batting average. If its any indication at all that OPS is outdated, just look at the media, even they are using it.
So, what should be used instead? There are tons of statistics to choose from and they all have their reasons, but for everyone who wants a simple transition out of OPS, wOBA is basically a properly tuned version of OPS, and for convenience sake, it is pegged to OBP, so if you're wondering what a good wOBA is, well, its the same scale of OBP so you don't have to explain what the number means.
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A's Ink 3 16 year old Latin Prospects
Just thought I’d drop a post kicking off the first day of MLB’s international siging period. If anyone has any knowledge of the players listed below, please add your thoughts.
Wilfredo Jesus Solano (switch-hitting shortstop), Wilman Jose "Junior" Martinez (3rd baseman), and outfielder Alfred Alejandro Sosa.
Here is the linkby GusanoQuemador on Jul 2, 2009 10:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Get ready
I had a good debate with some ANer’s about Cust and most used OPS in their defense of his 2008 season. I went with total bases and I think it’s fair to say I was a party of one and got burned pretty good.
I don’t pretend to know if your right 5Tool but it’ll be interesting to see what people have to say.
by sirbed on Jul 2, 2009 10:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cust
One of the problems with OPS is that it doesn’t actually mean anything as a number in terms of run production. In 2008 Cust’s OPS was .851, the most we can say then, is that he was above average, although All Star worthy by any means, furthermore, because his SLG is far above is OBP, and because OPS discounts OBP to a fault, we can say that his OPS relative to other players is possibly a little to high in terms of actual worth. However, if instead we use wOBA which is a linear weights formula and thus actually tells us about his contribution in terms of runs we see that with a .371 wOBA and 598 plate appearances in 2008 Jack Cust was worth approximately 16.12 runs above average offensively, for the season. And that’s the power of wOBA vs OPS, it actually tells you something.
by 5Tool on Jul 2, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
I think I get what your saying. I wonder with the 16.12 runs above average is this against other hitters at his position? I only think these comparisons are fair when you grade a player like Cust against other LF,RF,DH types as they have higher expectations put on their offense then a SS or catcher.
Either way I’ve never heard of this stat until today and it’s always a good day when you learn something new.
by sirbed on Jul 2, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just found this at Royals Review
But they are saying that the average LF/RF wOBA*(Park adjusted among other things) is .354 for 2008. Jack’s was .383.
by 5Tool on Jul 2, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not relative to position
you have three big numbers: batting runs above average, fielding runs above average and positional adjustment.
so let’s do Cust’s 2008 season pretending he DH’ed the whole time, because then I don’t have to look up any numbers.
BRAA: +16
FRAA*: 0 (he’s a DH)
Positional Adjustment: -17.5 (if you just google positional adjustments, you can the list for every position)
Total: 16+0-17.5 = -1.5 runs. So Cust was overall just about an average player last year, which a’int bad (or would have been, playing DH the whole time. I’m pretty sure he’s less valuable when he’s in the field, which is tough to do.)
by Elston Gunn on Jul 2, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed its super easy to find now too
and its easy to calculate on a runs above average basis.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 2, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Where is it on Baseball Reference's player pages?
I just looked through all the batting stats and I don’t see it.
I love Baseball Reference. If you’re asking me to switch stats, I’m open to that, but if you’re asking me to switch my favorite stats site, too, then we may have a problem.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Jul 3, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs.com Learn it, love it.
Between that and BB-ref, I don’t need anything else.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Jul 3, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, it's not on BB-ref then?
Assume I’m a stick-in-the-mud and won’t go anywhere besides BB-ref.
What stat that’s available on BB-ref do you like better than OPS+ as a generic overall rating of a hitter’s value as a hitter?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Jul 3, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ops+ is fine
if you want, keep in mind that ops underrates BBs and overrates HRs, so certain extreme players like Bengie Molina (or Cliff Pennington!) will be off a ways, but for most it doesn’t matter much.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jul 4, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you that OPS is not great
What OPS is is the minimum level of sophistication that makes any kind of meaningful point. People understand it easily (and can calculate the impact of any event in a game on the OPS scale), and it’s miles better than batting average.
There are, of course, an alphabet soup of better statistics (most of which are “the best” when they come out but are eventually surpassed) that are uniformly better measurements than OPS. None are as easy to understand, or to calculate at home.
I guess my point is that I don’t usually use OPS anymore, but I don’t mind when other people do. I do mind when people use things like batting average (see, Sweeney, R.), RBIs (see FA, D.), or other sub-OPS stats to say that someone is a good hitter.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jul 2, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As you say, OPS is a good place to start when looking at a player statistically.
Yes it’s flawed, but it’s still a good indicator of the player’s ability at the plate.
Some motherfcukers are always trying to ice skate uphill - Blade.
by OldhamA on Jul 2, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Some stats are really really complicated, like EqA for example, but others like wOBA are incredibly simple. In fact, I would say that wOBA is as simple if not more simple than OPS. It is exactly the same except for that instead of adding OBP and SLG you alter SLG a tiny bit and fuse it with OBP. And second of all, who is actually calculating OPS at home? Now a days it is really easy to find stats like wOBA, fangraphs has it for one.
And sure its better than batting average, but it also makes players who get on base, but don’t hit for power look worse than they are.
by 5Tool on Jul 2, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now I don't really care one way or another
But to say that wOBA is more simple than OPS when all you have to do is add OBP and SLG vs. alter SLG and fusing it to OBP is a quirky use of the English language. I took pre-calculus in HS and got a “B” in Stats in college, and I’ve got no freakin’ clue how you fuse any two numbers in math!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 2, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're not fusing numbers together, you're fusing concepts
All wOBA does is take OBP as the denominator and instead of having each time a person reach base worth 1 a single is worth .77, a double is worth 1.08 and a triple is worth 1.37…. It’s kind of like SLG, except for, you know, correct. But conceptually, if you understand OBP and you understand SLG then you should understand wOBA, there really the same, except one is more accurate and elegant than the other.
Also, of coarse you can fuse numbers together! 0 and 0 make 8, so does 3 and backwards 3. 1 and 0 make 9 and I’m sure there are more elaborate ones too.
by 5Tool on Jul 2, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know who taught you math
But the formula a+b=c is a lot easier than a(m)b(n)c(t)+d(x) =Z. Sure, the 2nd formula is simple enough if you know all the variables but not everyone does. Hey, I’m all for correct. Which is why saying wOBA is as simple or more simple than OPS is incorrect.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 2, 2009 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the point I'm making
It isn’t that wOBA is rocket science, it’s that when someone hits a single I can say “2 OPS points.” When I have standard slash stats, I can calculate OPS.
OPS is worse than more advanced stats but it’s easier.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jul 3, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
OPS is a very basic “counting stat” — OBP and SLG just count on-field events, add them up, and divide them by PAs. Then you add those two numbers together.
It’s weakness is that it isn’t analytical about the relative value of some of those events.
wOBA is analytical about those events, but the method of analysis (multiplying each event by a rough “run value”) is not, itself, a matter of counting an on-field event — it’s derived from other calculations of the relationship between those events in general and runs scored in general.
The analysis implicit in wOBA makes it a better tool for understanding players’ values, but it also makes it a little harder to use.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Jul 3, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that wOBA is more accurate
I disagree with the poster saying that it is easier to calculate than OPS.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 3, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 and 4 makes Jupiter.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Jul 3, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you crash Planet 5 and Plant 6 together
There is no gravity - the earth just sucks.
by JLeverenz on Jul 3, 2009 6:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Woah woah what you saying about DFA?
:-P
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 2, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That you're RBI heavy
And a shitty hitter
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jul 3, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I agree with this.
I prefer wOBA and EqA, but OPS and OPS+ are much, much better than the old fashioned BA and RBI crap.
"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden
by Blicks on Jul 2, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other big problem with OPS
is that it’s not park-adjusted. So Oakland players, for example, are always going to look bad that way.
I tend to use OPS+, which weights OBP and SLG more properly, but still not quite right (I think proper weighting is 1.8OBP=SLG, while OPS+ does 1.2OBP=SLG), just because I’m used to it, but wOBA probably is better.
by Elston Gunn on Jul 2, 2009 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OPS+ is a simple and easy way to go
And it can be accessed for free at Baseball Referrence.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 2, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those rumors about me & Miss Piggy were completely made up!
Nice try, though.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 2, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*googles pig with makeup*
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 2, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are AN comments of mine 8 of the first 19 hits?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 2, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hell no
only 7
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 2, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, that's when you search for GOAT with makeup, not pig.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Jul 3, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
first thing i found was this:
Worker guy: I’d rather have sex with a goat wearing no makeup than a goat with makeup.
Empire State Building
New York, New York
Overheard by: The Professor
Now the question is: Why was Nico in NY?
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 3, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, it's really not that big a deal.
I could be remembering this incorrectly, but I remember reading that even if you go to the extreme of high OPB, low SLG guys, say Ichiro, OPS+ is only off by 4-5 points, which is definitely significant, but with anyone less extreme, the difference is going to be so small, that unless you’re talking about a career’s worth of stats, you’re really not getting an incorrect idea of a player’s value.
So all of that can be boiled down to: wOBA is better for sure, but only marginally so, and it rarely actually matters which one you’re looking at.
by Elston Gunn on Jul 3, 2009 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was under the impression the A's have been on a crusade all season
to end OPS.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 2, 2009 2:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
haha
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 2, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean force it to negative numbers?
"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden
by Blicks on Jul 2, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, they're on a crusade to end WINS
Another flawed yet ironically meaningful stat that the A’s are bad at.
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on Jul 2, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
WINS are a terrible way to measure victories
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 2, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hhhhorrible.
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 2, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wOBA* ego boost time!!!
The Puppies/Cubs’ offense is equal to the A’s offense, when adjusting for park. Considering that they have a 137MM Soriano and Milton Bradley in their lineup, that’s entertaining.
Both have a .318 wOBA*. (The Giants have worse, btw).
"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden
by Blicks on Jul 2, 2009 8:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but the Giants bat Zito
"if gio would of ptched,he would of pitched shoot outs." - MR.OAKLAND
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Jul 2, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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