Baseball Analysts baseballanalysts.com, archives July 2nd.
Great studys on drafting in general, with three parts. Part 1)-expected value for each draft pick. 2) probability's of becoming a certain type of player. 3) The effect of a General Managers drafting ability.
As a team Oakland was top 4. As a General Manager Mr. Beane was rated #1 in WAR above average per pick and #1 WAR above average per draft. The Giants and Sabean ranked at/near the bottom.
Now this does me good. It validates what alot of A's fans feel about our G.M/Team and that his rebuilding plan will get us somewhere and that the A's or there fans are just "unlucky" right now. It would also seem to quiet at least some of the criticism of Beane at least as far as drafting goes. At the same time Giants haters can tell their stupid-ass, dumb-ass, fat-ass, Giant loving friends that Sabean is just lucky right now and will probably screw up the team soon. For a shorter acronym to call your Orange freinds, use (S.A.D.A.F.A).
more interesting facts with some of my own conclusions :
1) a good GM will net his team an average of 6-7 wins more than
an average GM in a single draft.
2) Beane is good for 9 extra WAR per draft.
3) Sabean loses his team about 9 WAR per draft.
4) the A's should have been spending more money on overslot and Int FA signings all along as the expected return would have been Higher/As Hi, than any other team. If this study bears out over more time, then the A's would be wise to spend much more money on signing players as it will net them more per dollar than any other team/most other teams.
5) anyone recently called stupid for thinking BB is a bad GM, thinking he has screwed the team up, or that he has had sub-par drafts, deserves it and should be hated. At least as far as the draft is concerned.
6) I downed a saved glass of cool-aid tonight and I feel good about it.
the study has some weird time frames and is a short study of 10 long time GM's. A more complete study of the entire body of work of GM's could produce different results.
A way of studying just all-stars and type A ,FA types out of a draft might equalize the grades also. To their credit, the Giants have three legit young stars right now, the A's not so much.
Stars can win things. Like games, series, and playoffs. The Giants have as good a shot as anyone with Cain and Lincecum pitching. Although I do not wish to see them break their curse and win a W.S, I wouldn't mind watching a Giant-Dodger 7 game NLCS with the Dodgers/Giants losing the W.S. to TB.