The New (but not improved) Jack Cust

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 4:49 AM PDT Comment 30 comments

I'm doing just about anything to avoid writing my paper, so I thought I'd take a look at Jack Cust. Keep in mind its nearly 5 am when I write this, so I apologize in advance for any part of this that may suck.

Jack Cust's 2008 numbers contrast quite a bit with his 2009 numbers. Let's take a look.

Last year, Cust put up a line of .231/.375/.476 for an OPS of .851. He walked 18.5% of the time, and struck out in 32.9% of his plate appearances.

This year, Cust has put up this gem: .239/.335/.431 for an OPS of .766. He is walking only 12.3% of the time, and is striking out 25.2% of the time.

Let's take a look at what has changed:

According to Fangraphs, Jack Cust's plate discipline and patience has decreased significantly since last year. This season, he has swung at 5% more pitches outside the strike zone (15.3% last year, 20.3% this year), 7.6% more pitches inside the strike zone (62.8% last year, 70.4% this year), and 5.3% more pitches overall (38.3% last year, 43.6% this year).

It seems that Cust made an effort to cut down on strikeouts (training his eyes, swinging earlier/more often) while increasing his batting average. While he succeeded in cutting down the strickouts!!!!11, he has failed (so far) in his effort to improve his BA.

Cust increasing the amount he swings was something that was pondered numerous times here at AN. Many people wondered if Cust chose to be less picky with his pitch selection, would his average and homeruns increase while is k's decreased. As of now the answer looks like a resounding no.

Let's look further:

While Cust is swinging at more pitches outside the strikezone, he is making contact with them less frequently (42.2% contact on pitches swung at outside the strike zone last year, 36.3 percent this year). This is probably good for Cust (except in cases of 2 strike hitting), as making contact with a bad pitch usually ends poorly. Cust has increased his contact rate on pitches swung at in the strike zone (71.1% last year, 83.2% this year). He has also increased his overall contact percentage from 65.1% last year, to 71.5% this year. While this may seem like a good thing, it could be very telling for Cust's decrease in OBP this year. He is swinging more, and probably at worse pitches than he did in the past.

So to me a few things seem pretty obvious: Jack Cust will never hit for a high average, and much of his value is in his ability to take pitches and walk. So Jack, if you read this, take more pitches and swing less often, and revert to your 2008 form. Pretty please?

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Once pitchers figure out he is swinging at the first pitch 80% of the time

All he will see is first pitch breaking balls out of the zone. He needs to find a happy medium.

a ground rule double followed by three unproductive outs, sounds like my sex life - dayzd toe

by adragon on Jun 9, 2009 7:56 AM PDT reply actions

Although

That first pitch BOMB last night was fun to see… I agree with you.

by jeffro on Jun 9, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Hear, Hear!!

Good work, travdog.

Hopefully this will find its way to Jack and he’ll go back to the high OBP strickout king we all know and love. This FanPost reminds me of one on LL a year or so back that broke down Felix Hernandez’s game and concluded he was throwing fastballs in certain counts too predictably. The analysis eventually got to Felix (well, his coaches) and his change in approach really brought his game up a notch

by cityplANner on Jun 9, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions

Maybe he was reading this site

and wanted to prove a point to all those who were complaining about his strickouts last year.

One better thing about this year – the Jack Cust Bunt.

best. thing. ever.

by bobnothing on Jun 9, 2009 9:37 AM PDT reply actions

What about the walkoff infield single?

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Jun 9, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions

I truly hope that's not the case,

although I wouldn’t be surprised if it were true.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions

how could it be true?

i mean, why would he give a toss about what people here are saying?

unless you mean the bit about the bunt. which is awesome.

by bobnothing on Jun 9, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Why else would he have changed his approach so drastically?

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe because the team wanted him to?

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 9, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd like to think that the team knows better than to do that,

but who knows really.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I guarantee you that no player, or team, changes his mind based on what's written here

unless it’s about stuff like the radio, or the price of pickled cabbage

by bobnothing on Jun 9, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions

FREE KRAUT!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Jun 10, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure I read something around the end of last year or during the offseason...

…about the team wanting him to cut down on his strikeouts.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 9, 2009 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Dont remember that,

but i strongly disagree with trying to change such a drastic part of your best hitter’s approach

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Found it

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/08/SPOM16UO3O.DTL&feed=rss.athletics

Jack Cust set an American League record with 197 strikeouts last year, but the A’s would like that number to drop – a lot.

So his spring, he worked on cutting his swing down a bit with two strikes. He struck out 18 times in 63 at-bats, which for Cust, is quite good. That’s 28.6 strikeouts in every 100 at-bats, compared with his rate of 41 per 100 last year.

The main thing the A’s would like is for Cust to make contact more with men in scoring position. He hit .231 with men in scoring position last year, striking out 52 times.

“He’s got to be willing to cut (his swing) down with two strikes and go the other way,” A’s hitting coach Jim Skaalen said. “I’m pleased with his attitude. He said he wasn’t pleased with the year he had last year, and I was happy to hear that.”

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 10, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Remember, that's just with two strikes with RISP

I don’t see where the A’s have asked him to swing at the first pitch more (which he seems to be doing) or to cut his swing down when there aren’t RISP.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 10, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions

True, but this sub-thread has diverged into talk about the strikeouts themselves.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 10, 2009 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I've never minded the strikeouts, but agree

that with two strikes and RISP it makes sense to have a secondary approach. Especially if he’s going to bat #3-#6; one of the reasons I like him at #2 is that he could be more his old self all the time and it would help more (than if he did it batting in more RBI spots).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 10, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I definitely think trying to cut back on his swing with two strikes is necessary

I never really liked him swinging for the fences with two strikes as if he had none. Any good hitter needs to be able to adjust and protect with a two-strike count.

It does look like some of these changes have extended past just a two-strike approach, though.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 10, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

While I agree with you,

I think it’s idealistic and unlikely for that to be able to happen without severe changes to the rest of his approach. (and subsequently changes to his numbers.)

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 10, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

I’m pretty sure I remember reading about them trying to get him to make more contact or something, which is stupid. The last time a team screwed with his swing (Padres), he had a bad year at AAA. Cust was a fantastic offensive player last year and the year before, so I’m completely baffled as to why they’re changing things.

I wish we would go back to the way we were earlier in the decades. None of this retarded bunting, stealing, worrying about K’s, etc. Get on base, dont make outs was a recipe for success, so why the hell are we doing things differently this year?

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Jun 9, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions

I hated the original idea, why f with your best hitter even if he ks a lot?

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on Jun 9, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions

Did opposing teams employ the shift on Cust a lot last year?

by jakebmill on Jun 9, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions

that's what I was going to ask..it seems like the shift is occuring against Cust more than ever

which could result in more groundball outs to the right side.

witty remark

by dtownmbrown on Jun 9, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Another way to look at it...

You’re comparing last year’s full statistics, which included an improved final two months of the season, with what Cust has done thus far. I could be wrong, but I suspect that if you compared where Cust was on June 9th of last year with June 9th of this year, his numbers will be much higher. Cust is also a relatively streaky hitter, and we’ve only seen one hot streak from him thus far.

Also, given the cruddy hitters who have generally been in the 7-9 spot in the line-up, a whole lot more Jack Cust walks would probably not have as much effect as the occasional hit to drive in runners who are already on base ahead of him.

I know its not fashionable to use RBIs as a statistic, but last year his totals were terrible - as the primary RBI guy on the team, and a man who hit 33 homers, he only drove in 77 runs all season. I remember all those times he came up with men on base, and either struck out with the bat on his shoulder, or walked, being left on base because they guys behind him sucked so badly. This year he’s on pace to drive in closer to 100 runs.

by richwol1 on Jun 9, 2009 2:05 PM PDT reply actions

Last year, on this date

Cust was hitting .249/.409/.465. for an OPS of .873: most importantly he was walking and taking lots more pitches. While I can see the small sample size argument, I think it’s clear that so far, his approach has changed.

The RBI argument is one I respect, however I believe that Cust’s value lies in his OBP, not his ability to drive in runs. Cust will never hit for average, and because of this he will never be a great RBI man.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 9, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

My take on Cust is that he is streakier than average,

so when you take a snapshot of his “current stats” they will often – even more than most players – look better or worse than they are going to look if you take another snapshot next month.

In other words, Cust may be about to get red hot for a bit and jump his OBP back up to his usual levels, or he may be about to go ice cold and prove your point two-fold. We just need a larger 2009 sample, like the whole season, before it can really be compared to the entire 2008 season.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 9, 2009 6:46 PM PDT reply actions

This is true, but

wouldn’t you say his approach has changed?

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jun 10, 2009 4:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes. The question is just what impact it will have on his overall AVG, OBP, SLG, HRs, etc.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 10, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions