Dredging for Hope 2: Hope Found?
About a month ago, I did this little write up thingy.
At the time there were two main things I wanted to highlight:
1. There were a bunch of unanswered questions about the A's during Spring Training that were left unanswered during Spring Training and were still in the process of being answered after a month of season.
2. The season is long and one of my favorite GM's, John Schuerholz, used the break the season into thirds (1 what do you got/ 2 what can you get/ 3 go for it). We should too as fans.
So, one third down... questions abound.
The questions we posed last time (for those that don't care to read the old post again) were:
How will the young starters hold up?
Who will be the young starters anyway?
Is the bullpen going to be okay?
How will the defense work out?
Will the offense be any better?
If anything the recent run has shown is that the answer to these questions is mostly positive for the A's. I know, easy to say after beating two fairly crappy teams on a six game win streak... but consider that good teams always beat up on bad teams. If anyone would categorize what the A's have been doing the past week as anything other than beating up on bad teams I point you to this table showing the White Sox enjoying the second easiest schedule to date and still having a pyhtag winning percentage .442 and the Orioles with a pythag winning percentage of .402.
So if the trend in performance is showing the A's are staring to answer the 3 month old questions in a good way, what questions will shape the second third of the season, the third when the team solidifies it's position as buyer or seller of major league players at the deadline?
Here are the questions we, as fans of the team, should be asking, and my feeble attempt at answers.
Did the two months in Purgatory give the rest of the division too much of a lead to overcome?
Which offense is for real? The early season or the recent?
Will the starting pitching keep getting deep enough into games so that the bullpen won't fall apart?
One at a time:
Did the two months in Purgatory give the rest of the division too much of a lead to overcome?
Assumption: Coming into the season, many expected the Angels to win the division with the A's nipping at their heels. The Rangers and Mariners were not expected to factor in much (although Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports told me they would).
Answer: Heck No! The Rangers are not what they are being made out to be. Their pitching is not that improved. Their collective FIP is the worst in all of Major League Baseball, and though I don't buy into the "pitching wins championships" axiom, I do think of winning as a balance sheet of sorts. Only, instead of Assets and Liabilities teams have Runs and Runs Allowed. The projected Runs Allowed (based on that FIP) side of the ledger for the Rangers does not show a team that is streaming towards 95 wins. Sure they will score a bunch, which brings me to the other real hurdle for the A's...
The Angels (sorry M's fans, I don't buy that you have a shot) can pitch it. Their FIP is lower than their ERA which leads me to believe they will get a bit stingier. Add to it a solidified rotation with Lackey and Santana (who has been more Jell-o than solid but should probably be on a rehab assignment still) and they will be even more formidable. But the potential Runs Scored side of the ledger (based on OPS) ain't as pretty for them. Add to that their propensity for costing themselves runs on the base paths and... well both of the teams, to steal a line from Denny Green, are what we thought they were. Not horribly great and the division is entirely winnable. Which leads to the second question...
Which offense is for real? The early season or the recent?
So... Maybe it is just blind optimism on my part but I can't believe that every veteran on the team will severely under perform against their career averages. I know, I know... Matt Holliday played in Coors Field, Giambi is old, Cabrera ain't that good in the first place and so and so forth. But I ask this, when was the last time you saw someone hit a line drive that high off the hitting background during a night game in Oakland? And another question... when the heck did Jason Giambi start walking and roping again?
In short, it was just a matter of time before these guys started to perform up to their established level of ability. Regress to the mean. Giambi won't get near his career OPS of 937, but it will be somewhere north of his current 736 and last years 876. Similar things can be said for Holliday, Cabrera. On the other side of the coin... Kennedy ain't Babe Ruth and a team that has the majority of the season with Crosby and Hannahan splitting 3rd base isn't going to score 9 runs a game (is any team?).
The point of all this rambling is that the 685 OPS as a team isn't going to stay there, I expect it to get somewhere in the middle of the pack... 750 would be okay assuming the third question is answered in a positive light.
Will the starting pitching continue to pitch deep enough for the bullpen to be effective?
When last we spoke of the dredging for hope, the bullpen was pitching about 40% of the total innings. There is no way that would work out in a good way for the A's. Since then... well it really hadn't gotten much better for most of May, but the A's are now working on going through the rotation for the fourth time where most starters made it at least five, and with the exception of Edgar Gonzalez (who is no longer in the rotation) and one bad Brett Anderson start (and one out to few from Cahill)... the A's starters have gone a minimum of 6 innings each time out since May 21st. Is this a mere blip, a peak in the rookie roller coaster, or something sustainable?
My best guess is that it is most likely it is a peak on the rookie roller coaster. But that doesn't mean it can't be a peak followed by a brief drop and another peak. This is the kind of question that is only answered with time. What bodes well for the "something sustainable" hypothesis is the fact that the games they have been lasting 6 innings have come against one outstanding offense, two middle of the pack offenses and one putrid offense.
So, completely going by gut feel and not looking up stats... it seems that the bullpen started to bark a bit in Texas after nearly two months of over use... but a few times through the rotation with mostly 6 inning starts (plus a series against the White Sox) seems to have helped.
All that said, this question is really the big one, as it has been since day one of the season and will be even after the second third is over. If the boys keep pitching like they are all growsed up maybe the next dredging will be "dredging for a third basemen."
I have to admit... the series against the NL West on the horizon make me feel like perhaps June might end with less talk about where Holliday is being traded and turn to "can Barton and Simmons (or some other combo) bring back an impact bat at third base?"
Of course, if they regress... well, that discussion is for the future.
What do you all think are the questions that need to be answered over the next 6 weeks or so? Here's hoping this team is more the 2004 Astros or 2007 Rockies and less the garbage team that took the field for most of the season so far.
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2 comments
Comments
Here's the Starting Pitching Numbers
for the past 21 games, 19 of which have been either a quality start of a 5+ inning start allowing 2 runs or less.
125.2 IP 5.98/game
107 H/ 32 W WHIP of 1.11
ERS 38 ERA 2.64
K 82 K/W ratio of 2.56/1
The walk number really jumps out at you. The kiddie brigade is walking guys at a rate of barely over 2 per game. That is outstanding. Strikeouts are only fair— basically a little under 6 per 9 innings
Of course they’ll regress, but 21 games is starting to be a pretty good sample size.
by jasonthea on Jun 8, 2009 5:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The two numbers that jump out at me
are the 1.11 WHIP and the 2.56 K/W. The K’s will come the more experience they get in the bigs but you have to love those numbers.
a ground rule double followed by three unproductive outs, sounds like my sex life - dayzd toe
by adragon on Jun 8, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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